Flight Safety Information December 6, 2011 - No. 246 In This Issue Incident: Delta A319 near Kansas City on Dec 5th 2011, engine shut down in flight Jordan 767 ban followed increasing concerns with oversight Groton-New London Airport system can 'arrest' runaway aircraft American Airlines Says Robert Reding, EVP Of Operations, Will Retire NTSB Releases Preliminary Report on Superstition Plane Crash US Federal Aviation Administration selects Active Risk Manager Southwest Airlines to equip ramp workers with wireless headsets to boost safety Disarmed grenades found in woman's luggage at Newark airport Women kicked off airplane at PBIA claim unruly flight attendant was to blame Randy Babbitt, FAA chief, takes leave of absence after DWI charge Campaign to honor WWII Coastal Patrol pilots Business jet market expected to start picking up in 2012 Incident: Delta A319 near Kansas City on Dec 5th 2011, engine shut down in flight A Delta Airlines Airbus A319-100, registration N318NB performing flight DL-1214 from Kansas City,MO to Detroit,MI (USA) with 73 people on board, had just reached cruise level 310 when the crew needed to shut the right hand engine (CFM56) down following vibrations. The aircraft returned to Kansas City for a safe landing on runway 01R about 35 minutes later. Passengers reported a number of bumps followed by vibrations before the crew announced the right hand engine had been shut down. http://flightaware.com/live/flight/DAL1214/history/20111205/2342Z/KMCI/KDTW Back to Top Jordan 767 ban followed increasing concerns with oversight Inspection of a Jordan Aviation Boeing 767-200ER in France revealed deficiencies so serious the aircraft had to be ferried empty for remedial maintenance. European Commission air safety regulators detailed the event after blacklisting the Middle Eastern carrier's three 767s, and have expressed reservations over Jordanian civil aviation authorities' ability to oversee airline operations. Examination of the 767, a 21-year-old airframe registered JY-JAG, turned up "serious airworthiness deficiencies" and ramp inspections pointed to "significant deficiencies in the management of airworthiness and operations" of the type, said the Commission. Analysis of ramp inspections on Jordanian aircraft since last year led to discussions with Jordan's Civil Aviation Regulatory Commission in September, the Commission added, but these failed to result in "clear evidence of corrective and preventative measures" by the air carriers involved. "Lack of information regarding the root-cause analysis of the safety deficiencies, coupled with increasingly-poor results of [ramp] inspections observed on several air operators certified in [Jordan], raised some questions on the ability of the competent authorities of that country to conduct appropriately continuous oversight of the air carriers it certified," it said. Both Jordan Aviation and the CARC gave presentations to the Commission's air safety committee in early November, which prompted a corrective action plan aimed at dealing with the safety issues discovered during the inspections, as well as weak internal processes. However, while the Commission has acknowledged the effort, it has nevertheless prohibited the carrier from operating the 767s into Europe, citing the "numerous and repetitive" safety issues, doubts over the airline's ability to mitigate the risks, and the lack of regulatory oversight. Europe's latest blacklist revision cleared Angolan operator TAAG's two Boeing 777-300ERs, a further easing of a strict ban on the carrier in 2007. While the air safety committee was "very concerned" with Albanian safety oversight, the country's regulator has pre-empted a blacklisting by revoking the air operator's certificate for Albanian Airlines and withdrawing a Boeing MD-82 from the Belle Air fleet. Honduran operator Rollins Air, which has a diverse fleet including a Boeing 737-200, Lockheed L-1011s, and regional turboprops, has been banned following safety concerns initially raised by French authorities. http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/jordan-767-ban-followed-increasing-concerns- with-oversight-365302/ Back to Top Groton-New London Airport system can 'arrest' runaway aircraft Safety zones aim to stop planes before they overshoot runway Groton - It's hard to imagine a massive field of small blocks stopping a runaway airplane, but that's exactly the kind of innovative technology that Groton-New London Airport has turned to in hopes of improving aircraft safety. The airport on Monday unveiled two new safety zones located directly beyond both ends of its major runway. The areas are lined with covered blocks of crushable concrete that are designed to slow and stop an aircraft that overruns the runway. Groton-New London is the first airport in the state to install this runway safety technology, called Engineered Material Arresting System. According to the company that manufactures EMAS, the technology has been installed nationwide at 42 airports and has stopped eight runaway planes without major damage or serious injuries to passengers. The hope is that the new runway safety technology is never needed, but Groton-New London Airport officials said it will be a comfort to know that it is highly unlikely that a plane could overshoot the runway and land in either Baker Cove or the Poquonnock River. "This has always been a sore point because we didn't have the appropriate safety measures in place," said Carl Strand Jr., who has sat on the airport's advisory committee for more than 30 years. The new runway safety technology, which took about a month to install at the state- owned airport, cost more than $9 million. Ninety-five percent of the cost was covered by two federal grants - one for $6.4 million that paid for the blocks and another for $3 million that paid for the construction of the safety zones, according to Robert J. Bruno, chief of engineering services for the state Department of Transportation's Bureau of Aviation and Ports. A grant from the state's transportation bond fund covered the remaining project costs, Bruno said. In 1985, a 120,000-pound C-130 transport plane overshot a runway at the Groton-New London Airport. The 12-person crew from North Carolina was unharmed and the U.S. Coast Guard had to move the plane. Strand and Catherine Young, the airport manager, said there have been other instances of aircraft overshooting the runway. That should no longer be a concern with the new safety zones and technology, said Kevin Quan, an official with Zodiac Aerospace, the company that manufactures EMAS. "It's designed to ensure that you don't damage the airplane or cause any potential injuries to passengers," Quan said. The safety zone at the far end of Runway 5, near Baker Cove, is 340 feet long and 162 feet wide. The zone closer to the airport terminal, at the end of Runway 23, is 130 feet long and 162 feet wide. The crushable concrete, low-density blocks are about the size of a softball and use a foaming agent with air bubbles, Quan said. In the event that a plane does run into the safety zone and destroys some of the blocks, Bruno said the airplane's insurance carrier would most likely be responsible for the EMAS replacement costs. The airport will be responsible for snow removal and other upkeep. Quan said the technology, which was first installed in 1996 at John F. Kennedy International Airport, is in its third generation and has been made more durable over the years. It recently helped a Cessna Citation 550 remain relatively undamaged when it overran a runway at Key West International Airport in Florida. http://www.theday.com/article/20111206/NWS01/312069896/-1/NWS American Airlines Says Robert Reding, EVP Of Operations, Will Retire (RTTNews) - American Airlines, a unit of AMR Corp. (AMR), announced that Robert Reding, Executive Vice President - Operations, will retire December 31, after 12 years of service to the company. The company noted that Reding's role will not be filled. Instead, some of his responsibilities will be assumed by James Ream, who is named Senior Vice President - Operations. Effective upon Reding's retirement in December, Ream will take over additional responsibility for the Flight Operations, Operations Planning & Performance, Operations Finance & Planning, and Safety, Security and Environmental departments, in addition to his role overseeing M&E. The company stated that Mark Burdette, Vice President - Employee Relations or ER, will retire on December 31. Replacing Burdette is Denise Lynn, who is named Vice President - Employee Relations. Lynn will lead an ER team responsible for relations with all of American's employee groups. Separately, Monte Ford, Senior Vice President and Chief Information Officer or CIO, has resigned effective December 31. Succeeding Ford is Maya Leibman, who is promoted to Senior Vice President and CIO. In her new role, Leibman will lead the company's IT strategy and operations, including the continued deployment of next-generation technology to improve customer service and efficiency. American also said that it named Beverly Goulet Chief Restructuring Officer, a role she will serve in addition to her current position as Vice President - Corporate Development and Treasurer. Back to Top NTSB Releases Preliminary Report on Superstition Plane Crash PHOENIX - The NTSB has released their preliminary report on the fatal plane crash in the Superstition Mountains, detailing what led up to the crash just 150 feet from the top of the Flat Iron peak. Six people were killed in the crash, including a father and his three kids. The plane had just taken off from Mesa's Falcon Field for a flight to Safford. The report doesn't reach any conclusions, but it does say when the plane reached an altitude of 4,500 feet, it tracked in a straight line, right into the mountain, without making any evasive maneuvers. It also says that propeller and engine damage signatures were consistent with the engines developing power at the time of impact -- which could indicate the pilot may have seen the mountain right before he hit it. Again, these are just preliminary findings. The final report with its conclusion will take months to complete. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- READ THE FULL REPORT NTSB Identification: WPR12FA046 Nonscheduled 14 CFR Part 91: General Aviation Accident occurred Wednesday, November 23, 2011 in Apache Junction, AZ Aircraft: ROCKWELL 690, registration: N690SM Injuries: 6 Fatal. This is preliminary information, subject to change, and may contain errors. Any errors in this report will be corrected when the final report has been completed. On November 23, 2011, about 1831 mountain standard time (MST), a Rockwell International 690A, N690SM, was substantially damaged when it impacted terrain in the Superstition Mountains near Apache Junction, Arizona, about 5 minutes after takeoff from Falcon Field (FFZ), Mesa, Arizona. The certificated commercial pilot and the five passengers, who included two adults and three children, were fatally injured. The airplane was registered to Ponderosa Aviation, which held a Part 135 operating certificate, and which was based at Safford Regional Airport (SAD), Safford, Arizona. The personal flight was operated under the provisions of Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations Part 91. Night visual meteorological conditions prevailed, and no flight plan was filed. According to several witnesses, the children's father, who was a co-owner of Ponderosa Aviation and who lived near SAD, regularly used the operator's airplanes to transport the children, who lived near FFZ, between FFZ and SAD or vice versa. According to a fixed base operation (FBO) line serviceman who was familiar with the children and their father, on the night of the accident, the children arrived at FFZ about 15 minutes before the airplane arrived. The airplane was marshaled into a parking spot adjacent to the FBO building; it was already dark. The father was seated in the front left seat and operating the airplane, and another individual was in the front right seat. After shutdown, the father and a third individual, whom the line serviceman had not seen before, exited the airplane. The individual in the front right seat did not exit the airplane; he remained in the cockpit with a flashlight, accomplishing unknown tasks, and subsequently repositioned himself to the front left seat. The father went into the FBO to escort the children to the airplane. The father, three children and the third individual returned to the airplane. The individual in the front left seat remained in that seat, the third individual seated himself in the front right seat, and the father and three children situated themselves in the rear of the airplane. Engine start and taxi-out appeared normal to the line serviceman, who marshaled the airplane out of its parking spot. Review of the recorded communications between the airplane and the FFZ air traffic control tower (ATCT) revealed that when the pilot requested taxi clearance, he advised the ground controller that he was planning an "eastbound departure." The flight was cleared for takeoff on runway 4R, and was instructed to maintain runway heading until advised, due to an inbound aircraft. About 90 seconds later, the ATCT local controller issued a "right turn approved" clearance to the flight. Review of the preliminary ground-based radar tracking data revealed that the takeoff roll began about 1826 MST, and the airplane began its right turn towards SAD when it was about 2 miles east of FFZ, and climbing through an altitude of about 2,600 feet above mean sea level (msl). About 1828, the airplane reached an altitude of 4,500 feet msl, where it remained, and tracked in an essentially straight line, until it impacted the terrain. The last radar return was received at 1830:56, and was approximately coincident with the impact location. The airplane's transponder was transmitting on a code of 1200 for the entire flight. The impact site was located on steep rocky terrain, at an elevation of about 4,650 feet, approximately 150 feet below the top of the local peak. Ground scars were consistent with impact in a wings-level attitude. Terrain conditions, and impact- and fire-damage precluded a thorough on-site wreckage examination. All six propeller blades, both engines, and most major flight control surfaces were identified in the wreckage. Propeller and engine damage signatures were consistent with the engines developing power at the time of impact. The wreckage was recovered to a secure facility, where it will be examined in detail. According to the operator's and FAA records, the pilot had approximately 2,500 total hours of flight experience. He held multiple certificates and ratings, including a commercial pilot certificate with single- engine, multi-engine, and instrument-airplane ratings. His most recent FAA second-class medical certificate was issued in July 2011, and his most recent flight review was completed in September 2011. According to FAA information, the airplane was manufactured in 1976, and was equipped with two Honeywell TPE-331 series turboshaft engines. The airplane was recently purchased by the operator, and was flown from Indiana to the operator's base in Arizona about 1 week prior to the accident. The airframe had accumulated a total time in service (TT) of approximately 8,188 hours. The left engine had accumulated a TT since major overhaul (SMOH) of about 545 hours, and the right engine had accumulated a TTSMOH of 1,482 hours. The FFZ 1854 automated weather observation included winds from 350 degrees at 5 knots; visibility 40 miles; few clouds at 20,000 feet; temperature 23 degrees C; dew point -1 degrees C; and an altimeter setting of 29.93 inches of mercury. U.S. Naval Observatory data for November 23 indicated that the moon, which was a waning crescent of 3 percent, set at 1605, and local sunset occurred at 1721. http://www.myfoxphoenix.com/dpp/news/investigative/ntsb-releases-preliminary-report-on-superstition- plane-crash-12-5-2011 Back to Top US Federal Aviation Administration selects Active Risk Manager This proactive management has the potential to reduce spend on mitigation actions and to ensure project goals are achieved Active Risk (formerly Strategic Thought Group), author of award winning Enterprise Risk Management software, Active Risk Manager (ARM), announced today that the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) AJE-1 AKA program has selected ARM to support its risk management processes. FAA joins a growing number of US Government Agencies which have chosen ARM for risk/issue/opportunity (RIO) management across their contractors and federal staff. Loren Padelford, Senior Vice President of Active Risk Group and Chairman of the Americas' Board commented, "FAA plan to improve the management and sharing of risks, issues and opportunities to enable better risk-based decision making earlier in the lifecycle. This proactive management has the potential to reduce spend on mitigation actions and to ensure project goals are achieved. As ARM is also used by organizations within FAA's contractor community, there is the opportunity to improve information sharing which will benefit everyone involved. We welcome FAA to the ARM user community which already includes the likes of United States Air Force, Department of Homeland Security, US Department of Energy and NASA." Active Risk Manager enables the identification, communication, analysis and mitigation of risks and opportunities within a single system to address enterprise-wide risk management (ERM), project risk and governance, risk and compliance (GRC) requirements. About Active Risk Active Risk (formerly Strategic Thought Group)* (AIM:ARI) addresses enterprise-wide risk management (ERM) and governance, risk and compliance (GRC) requirements with advanced software and services that can be implemented across organizations in all industry sectors. http://www.responsesource.com/releases/rel_display.php?relid=68932 Back to Top Southwest Airlines to equip ramp workers with wireless headsets to boost safety Southwest Airlines ground crew members test the wireless headsets earlier this year. The headsets will be put into use in February. Airport ramp areas are noisy, bustling places as planes, baggage carts and fuel trucks come and go. To make potentially dangerous situations safer, Southwest Airlines will be the first U.S. airline to equip ramp employees with wireless headsets so the ground crew and pilots can coordinate the process of pushing back planes from concourse gates. In February, the headset system will be rolled out at Southwest's 420 gates nationwide. The hands-free devices should be installed in Denver as early as mid-January. "This will be such a great tool for these guys," said Marc Stank, Southwest's senior manager of safety, standards and regulatory compliance. "This adds another level of safety." Accidents involving planes being pushed back - either hitting a person or a pricey plane - happen but are not common. Built by Flightcom of Portland, Ore., the wireless system connects the wing walkers - the people who look out for obstacles while they accompany the aircraft as it pushes back from the gate - with the driver of the "mule" or tractor that pushes the plane's nose. All three ground- crew members can hear the pilot, Stank said. Currently, Southwest uses a system of one headset worn by the pushback driver that plugs into the aircraft. The wing walkers use only hand signals to communicate. "It is limited now. The pushback driver may see a threat, such as a vehicle coming around the corner, that the wing walker can't see," Stank said. Southwest declined to say how much it is spending to roll out the new system. The system was tested last February at New York City's LaGuardia Airport in its congested operations, Chicago's Midway Airport for inclement weather and San Diego for the closeness of a ramp to runways and military operations. Testing resulted in longer-lasting batteries and the ability to plug in the cases where the headsets are stored instead of the individual headsets. The cases then can be wheeled out to the gate. Stank said the headsets have a 1,600-foot range, "essentially the plane footprint." During testing, there was no problem with interference and no "bleed-over" from headsets nearby. http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_19477608 Back to Top Disarmed grenades found in woman's luggage at Newark airport NEW YORK (Reuters) - Authorities at Newark Liberty Airport in New Jersey discovered five disarmed grenades in the luggage of a woman seeking to board a flight to Belgium, the Transportation Security Administration said on Monday. The TSA said baggage screeners had found the grenades while X-raying the woman's checked luggage on Saturday. TSA spokeswoman Lisa Farbstein said the woman, who has not been named, surrendered the items to authorities without incident and was then allowed to board the flight. Farbstein did not say why the woman was carrying the grenades. Port Authority Police has law enforcement authority over the airport and said on Monday they were not called in for the incident. Back to Top Women kicked off airplane at PBIA claim unruly flight attendant was to blame Passengers claim attendant was 'a bully' PALM BEACH COUNTY, Fla. - Three women were escorted off a New York bound flight at Palm Beach International Airport Monday afternoon by airline staff and Palm Beach County Sheriff's deputies. The women claim they did not do anything wrong and that a flight attendant on board was the only one behaving poorly. The women -- a lawyer, a therapist and a retired travel agent -- were complete strangers until they were seated near one another on AirTran Flight 1451 to White Plains, New York. They were buckled in and ready to take off when they said a male flight attendant began mishandling some overhead luggage. "I said, 'Hey, I have breakables in that,'" said Marilyn Miller. Miller said her plea was ignored and that the flight attendant even began shoving other bags into hers. "It was just like a bully and I found myself shaking." Passenger Carol Gray also had a problem and requested attention from the same flight attendant. "I said, 'Excuse me sir, my seat is broken,' and he looked at me and said, 'I'm not talking to you,' and poked me in the arm," said Gray. Miller and Gray said the attendant was getting angry and threatened to throw both women off of the airplane. "He said, 'Well, you're getting off.' I said, 'You've got to be kidding me,'" said Miller, who was escorted off of the plane into the jet-way. The women claim two sheriff's deputies and some airline staffers arrived to take them away. Passenger Karyn Schorr decided it was time to speak up. "I said, 'This is crazy, they didn't do anything. Why are you doing this to them?'" And he said, 'Throw her off too,'" Schorr said. All three women said they were in shock when they were lead off of the airplane and back to the terminal. "My seat was broken and it really was. Her bag was being mishandled. And this other woman came to our defense," said Gray. "Those are hardly causes to throw us all off the plane." The women said the airlines should do a better job selecting the people that are in control in the air. "Stewards have all the power when you're on an airplane, I get that," said Schorr. "But, this is a man who is not balanced." AirTran and parent company Southwest Airlines have not responded to repeated requests for a comment. The company's website displays the mission of a flight attendant to "deliver friendly, enthusiastic and professional service...while making safety the number one goal." The women were not cited or charged with any crimes and were offered a flight on another airline back to New York paid for by AirTran. They were told that someone from AirTran management would be contacting each of them directly. "I've never seen this flight attendant and if I ever see him on a plane again, I'm getting off," said Miller. Read more: http://www.wptv.com/dpp/news/region_c_palm_beach_county/west_palm_beach/women- kicked-off-airplane-at-pbia-claim-unruly-flight-attendant-was-to-blame#ixzz1flq2z93S Back to Top Randy Babbitt, FAA chief, takes leave of absence after DWI charge Babbitt requested the leave after news of his arrest became public, the DOT said. Federal Aviation Administration chief Randy Babbitt has been placed on a leave of absence after he was charged with driving while intoxicated. Babbitt, who lives in the Washington suburb of Reston, Va., was arrested at 10:30 p.m. Saturday night after an officer observed a car driving on the wrong side of the road on Old Lee Highway and was pulled over, police said. He was subsequently released on a personal recognizance bond. According to the Transportation Department, Babbitt requested the leave of absence after news of his arrest became public Monday. "DOT officials are in discussions with legal counsel about Administrator Babbitt's employment status," the statement added. The Washington Post reported that Babbitt will appear in court on Feb. 2. White House press secretary Jay Carney said President Barack Obama, who nominated Babbitt in 2009, "didn't have a particular reaction" to the news of Babbitt's arrest, and referred further questions to the DOT, which said it first learned of the matter early Monday afternoon. Babbitt, 65, was sworn in as FAA administrator in June 2009 and previously served as part of the FAA's Management Advisory Council. He has also founded an aviation consulting firm, Eclat Consulting, and was a 25-year pilot at Eastern Airlines as well as a longtime official with the Air Line Pilots Association. His term runs five years and is not tied to the presidency. At the FAA, Babbitt has faced an unclear long-term funding outlook for the FAA and has operated solely on stopgap bills during his tenure. He also endured a partial FAA shutdown this summer at the whim of Congress and overhauled the Air Traffic Organization this spring after a sleeping air traffic controller story went viral and prompted the resignation of Air Traffic Organization head Hank Krakowski. Deputy Administrator Michael Huerta will serve as acting administrator in Babbitt's absence. Huerta was confirmed as deputy administrator in June 2010 after a five-month hold by Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who held Obama's choice for second-in-charge because Cornyn wanted the FAA to approve of more unmanned drones on the U.S.-Mexico border. The hold was eventually released after the FAA agreed to allow an additional drone on the border. During his confirmation hearing before the Senate Commerce Committee, Huerta enjoyed mostly kind words from politicians. Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) called Huerta an honorary Utahn due to his work as managing director of the 2002 Winter Olympics and told his Senate colleagues, "You've got a real good one here." Huerta's duties as deputy administrator have been oversight of the National Airspace System and installation of the NextGen satellite navigation system, an upgrade to the United States's current radar-based system that requires often inefficient point-to-point flight routes. Huerta appeared before the House Transportation and Infrastructure Aviation Subcommittee in October to tout the benefits of NextGen, which he said will need at least $20 billion in additional funding by 2015. Huerta is on his second stint with the DOT. He also served with the department from 1993 until 1998. Should Babbitt resign and Huerta be nominated as FAA administrator, Huerta would have to be confirmed again. Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1211/69800.html#ixzz1fljfRbQi Back to Top Campaign to honor WWII Coastal Patrol pilots Thousands of civilian pilots volunteered for the Coastal Patrol during World War II, logging more than 750,000 flying hours, sinking two enemy submarines and attacking 57. Now there's a campaign lobbying Congress to honor them with a Congressional Gold Medal. In March 1942, German submarines were attacking U.S. cargo ships along the East Coast. A 90-day test period was approved to let the Coastal Patrol - a group of civilian pilots with their own aircraft - report submarine sightings to the military and force the vessels underwater, where they would need to slow down and use their limited battery power. In Hampton Roads, a small squadron of Coastal Patrol planes became the first local Civil Air Patrol, operating out of Whitehurst Field and Municipal Airport in Norfolk and Langley Air Force Base in Hampton, according to a Virginian-Pilot story. Soon, it was decided to arm the aircraft with small bombs or depth charges. By a year and a half later, when the military was able to take over all patrol duties over water, 26 Civil Air Patrol pilots had died while on coastal patrol duty and 90 aircraft had been lost. The Civil Air Patrol began youth and aviation education programs and helped with home- front war efforts around the country, including border patrol, target towing, forest fire spotting, search and rescue, disaster relief and the emergency transport of people and supplies. By the end of the war, the civilian force had flown more than 750,000 hours and lost 64 personnel and 150 aircraft. They had left their mark. "It was perhaps best told by a high German official who was asked after the war why the U-boats stopped sinking allied shipping within sight of the coasts," The Virginian-Pilot reported in 1953. "He replied, 'It was those damn little red and yellow planes.' " Modern-day members of the Civil Air Patrol, which is celebrating its 70th year, are seeking recognition of the pilots. Legislation filed in the House and the Senate boasts 109 co-sponsors in the House, including U.S. Rep. Rob Wittman of Westmoreland County, and 45 in the Senate, including North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr. "We want to make sure those who remain, and those who have passed, are rightly honored for their great service to America," Maj. Gen. Chuck Carr, CAP's national commander, said in a news release. The gold medal is the highest honor Congress can bestow. Previous recipients include the Wright Brothers, Navajo Code Talkers, the astronauts who landed on the moon and, most recently, the Montford Point Marines, the first black Marines. The Civil Air Patrol is also asking for help to identify adults who served between Dec. 7, 1941, and Aug. 15, 1945. http://hamptonroads.com/2011/12/campaign-honor-wwii-coastal-patrol-pilots Back to Top Business jet market expected to start picking up in 2012 The worst of the downturn in the business jet market is over, according to a new forecast by Forecast International. The market for business jet production is expected to show some minor improvement next year, signaling the start of a gradual - but potentially long-lasting - market recovery, the forecast said. "Business jet production in 2012 will show some minor improvement over 2011, but more substantial growth in build rates will have to wait until 2013," Raymond Jaworowski, Forecast International senior aerospace analyst, said in a statement. The forecast projects demand for 10,907 business jets valued at $230.3 billion in the 10 years from 2011 to 2020. Next year, production is expected to total 728 planes. But production isn't expected to return to 2008 levels, a record for the market at 1,313 jets, until 2018. Although the worst of the downturn is over, much of the market remains sluggish, especially in the light- and medium-jet segments of the market, Jaworowski said in his report. Demand is stronger in the large-cabin and long-range sectors. "The tale of two markets will not continue indefinitely, however," he said in the report. Still, business aircraft usage is up, the market for used business jets has stabilized and corporate profits are strong, the forecast said. Business jet manufacturers have a number of new jets in development, such as Cessna's Citation M2 and Latitude, Bombardier's Global 7000 and 8000, and Gulfstream's G650. The manufacturers hope the new models will benefit from improved market conditions and will contribute to the recovery by stimulating demand, Jaworowski wrote in the report. The forecast predicts that the top three producers of business jets in the next 10 years in terms of volume will be Cessna Aircraft, followed by Embraer and Bombardier. By value of production, the top three companies are expected to be Gulfstream, Bombardier and Dassault, all of which build larger, more expensive, business aircraft. Honeywell Aerospace's annual forecast released in October forecasts similar numbers of jets. Honeywell also projects 2011 to be the trough for business jet deliveries, followed by modest growth for the next few years. The outlook projects demand for 10,000 business jets over 10 years, with half of them delivered in the next five years. It predicts that it will be the end of the decade before demand returns to pre-recession levels. Honeywell projected deliveries for 2012 to reach about 700, up from 600 to 650 this year. .. Read more: http://www.kansas.com/2011/12/05/2128822/business-jet-market-expected- to.html#ixzz1flgxLQzs