Flight Safety Information December 30, 2011 - No. 263 In This Issue Airline accidents, deaths on pace for record low average Man charged with trying to take loaded handgun on flight Mechanical issue prompts American Airlines plane to make precautionary landing in Phoenix Alaska Volcano Sends Ash Plume Up to 15,000 Feet Will The FAA Relax Electronic Device Restrictions? Struggling Jade Cargo forced to ground 747 fleet GoAir A320 hit by bus at Mumbai airport ASN releases preliminary airliner safety statistics 2011 Airline accidents, deaths on pace for record low average Group that has tracked data since 2006 sees 'long-term trend' The global airline accident rate is on pace this year to reach the lowest recorded, according to a trade group. The rate of accidents serious enough to destroy an airplane was, through November, 52 percent lower than the average for the previous five full years, according to statistics compiled by the International Air Transport Association. The 2011 rate of 0.34 accidents per million flights is the lowest since World War II, when the modern airline industry began, said Perry Flint, IATA's Washington-based spokesman. "This is a long-term trend," Flint said. "2011 is not some kind of anomaly." The number of deaths in airline accidents globally is at the lowest level since 2006, the first year for which IATA reported data in that category on its website. Through November, 486 people had died in air crashes, compared with the previous low of 502 in 2008. IATA represents airlines, including Aer Lingus in Ireland, Air France and US Airways Inc. One year of data should be approached with caution because trends in aviation safety take many years to develop, said Kevin Darcy, a director of RTI Forensics in San Francisco and former chief accident investigator for Boeing Co. RTI performs engineering consulting on aviation and marine accidents. Still, technological improvements in the manufacture of aircraft and safety devices introduced the past two decades have almost eliminated some types of accidents, Darcy said. Cockpit databases that track a plane's location and warn pilots when they get too close to mountaintops or other obstructions have made rare what were once causes of many accidents, Darcy said. Other safety systems have helped reduce in-air collisions and wind-shear crashes, he said. Africa remains the most dangerous region in which to fly, according to the IATA data. There were 3.93 serious accidents per million flights through November. That level was 29 percent less than the average for the previous five years. Europe and North Asia had no serious accidents this year, according to IATA. There has been one serious accident in about 10 million flights in North America, according to the group's data. That Aug. 20 crash of a First Air chartered Boeing 737- 200 in Resolute Bay, Canada, killed 12 people, according to Aviation Safety Network, a website that reports accidents. First Air is owned by 9,000 Inuit of northern Quebec. IATA's data track crashes involving scheduled and nonscheduled carriers around the world. It doesn't count terrorist attacks or accidents involving private aircraft. The IATA definition of a serious accident also doesn't include some occurrences aviation investigators consider dangerous. For example, a Southwest Airlines Boeing 737 that lost a 5-foot section of fuselage skin April 1 over Arizona isn't included because the damage wasn't sufficient to destroy the jet. The National Transportation Safety Board considered the episode serious enough to conduct a public hearing. The tear was traced to a manufacturing error, the NTSB has said. The most common type of serious accident occurs when an airplane goes off a runway during takeoff or landing, according to a Dec. 7 presentation by Gunther Matschnigg, IATA's senior vice president for safety, operations and infrastructure. Those accidents accounted for 23 percent of serious crashes, Matschnigg said. "IATA understands that there is still a lot of work that needs to be done in this area," he said. http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2011-12-29/business/ct-biz-1229-airline-accident- rate-20111229_1_accidents-iata-aviation-safety-network Back to Top Man charged with trying to take loaded handgun on flight from Missouri aiport WASHINGTON (CNN) -- A Kansas City, Missouri, man was charged Thursday with attempting to take a loaded handgun onto a Delta Air Lines flight. Anthony Winn was arrested Wednesday after an airport screener using an x-ray machine saw the image of the weapon and alerted police at Kansas City International Airport, federal authorities said. According to a criminal complaint, Winn had a Glock 9mm in a carry-on bag and it was loaded with 23 rounds, including one live round in the chamber. Officers also found more than $26,000 in cash stuffed in the pockets of jeans in the bag and almost $5,000 in the pants he was wearing. The court document says when the gun was discovered Winn claimed his brother left it at his house and that he was going to return it to him in Tucson, Arizona. But Winn allegedly changed his story later and said he was taking the bag to Arizona to give to a friend and that he hadn't known that either cash or a weapon were inside. "If I knew that there was a gun in my bag, I would not have tried to take it on the plane," Winn told officers, according to the criminal complaint. Winn, 26, also was charged with being a felon in possession of a firearm. According to the filing, he had previously been convicted of two counts of burglary and unlawful use of a weapon. Winn made a brief court appearance Thursday and will remain in jail at least until a detention hearing next week. A message left for a lawyer appointed to represent him was not immediately returned. Don Ledford, a spokesman for the U.S. attorney's office in Kansas City, said the case is still under investigation, but said "there's no indication of terrorism." "This year alone, TSA has detected over 1,200 firearms at checkpoints across the nation, as well as many other weapons," said Kristin Lee, a spokeswoman for the Transportation Security Administration. Back to Top Mechanical issue prompts American Airlines plane to make precautionary landing in Phoenix PHOENIX (AP) - A possible mechanical problem has prompted the pilots of an American Airlines plane to make a precautionary landing in Phoenix. The plane from Dallas landed safely Thursday night at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport. The flight was scheduled to land in Phoenix and wasn't diverted. Kris Commerford, a supervisor with the airport's communications center, says the plane had a possible problem with its reverse thrusting system. The plane was carrying 140 people when it landed in Phoenix. Back to Top Alaska Volcano Sends Ash Plume Up to 15,000 Feet ANCHORAGE (AP) - A volcano in Alaska's Aleutian Islands sent up an ash cloud on Thursday that prompted scientists to increase the alert level for commercial aircraft traffic. The Alaska Volcano Observatory said satellite images at 4:02 a.m. Alaska time showed Cleveland Volcano had spewed ash 15,000 feet into the air in a cloud that moved east- southeast. U.S. Geological Survey scientist-in-charge John Power called it a small explosion. "It's not expected to cause a disruption to big international air carriers," he said. However, it was significant enough to raise the alert level from yellow, representing elevated unrest, to orange, representing an increased potential of eruption, or an eruption under way with minor ash emissions or no emissions. Cleveland Mountain is a 5,675-foot foot peak on uninhabited Chuginadak Island about 940 miles southwest of Anchorage. The nearest village is Nikolski on another island about 50 miles east. Previous eruptions of Cleveland Volcano were not considered a threat to Nikolski and its 18 permanent residents. Scientists in July noted increased activity in the crater at the summit of the volcano. Satellite images showed lava building and forming a dome-shaped accumulation. Chris Waythomas of the USGS said in September that lava domes form a lid on a volcano's "plumbing," including the chamber holding the magma. When they grow big enough, lava domes can become unstable and will sometimes collapse. When the magma chamber decompresses it can lead to an explosion as the conduit inside the volcano suddenly becomes unsealed and gasses escape. Radar images earlier this month showed the dome had cracked and subsided, Power said. The Federal Aviation Administration and the airline industry get concerned for trans- Pacific flights when an ash cloud has the potential to exceed the 20,000-foot threshold, as Cleveland Volcano has done in the past. Alaska's Redoubt Volcano blew on Dec. 15, 1989, and sent ash 150 miles away into the path of a KLM jet carrying 231 passengers. Its four engines flamed out and the jet dropped more than 2 miles, from 27,900 feet to 13,300 feet, before the crew was able to restart all engines and land the plane safely at Anchorage. Cleveland Volcano's last major eruption was in 2001. It has had bursts of activity nearly every year since then and the ash cloud Thursday was not out of character. "It's not unexpected for a volcano like Cleveland to do things like this," Power said. "Unfortunately, Cleveland is one of those that is so remote, we have no on-ground monitoring or instrumentation there, so it's hard for us to pinpoint things any more accurately than we can do with satellite imagery." The event Thursday drew strong interest from air carriers. "Any time you put an ash cloud up into the atmosphere, the airlines, the air carriers, air freight companies -- it's a major concern," Power said. The observatory is working with the University of Washington to monitor lightning above Cleveland Mountain, which could signal a major ash plume. "Any time you put up a big ash cloud, you induce a lot of lightning activity," he said. "It's like having a big thunderhead go up." The cause is linked to the interaction of ash and warm air. "There's a whole lot of hot air and it rises through the atmosphere very quickly," Power said. "All the ash particles rub together and develop electrical charges, and that discharges as lightning. The eruption Thursday was not large enough to create lightning. Seismic activity at nearby volcanoes could also signal an explosion at Cleveland Mountain, the observatory said. The observatory is a joint program between the USGS, the University of Alaska Geophysical Institute and the state Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys. It was formed in response to the 1986 eruption of Mount Augustine. The observatory Thursday morning had no satellite images of the crater after the eruption. Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/us/2011/12/29/alaska-volcano-sends-ash-plume- up-to-15000-feet/#ixzz1i1d8MNYf Back to Top Will The FAA Relax Electronic Device Restrictions? Alec Baldwin recently made a fool of himself by refusing to put down his iPad during takeoff so the plane full of dozens of other people could make it to their destination on time. The rules of stowing electronics during takeoff and landing aren't made by airlines, rather the Federal Aviation Administration. The rules seem a little absurd for many devices. However, given FAA bureaucracy, even if it is reviewing the issue, don't expect to be allowed to read an ebook while taxiing, taking off, or landing. The rules seem to have been put in place when these devices came into use. No studies existed on how these devices could interfere with the plane's electronics. It seems the rules remain in place because, well, just because. I'm not sure exactly how the aircraft is more susceptible to radio interference during takeoff and landing as opposed to when it is at 30,000 feet, flying at nearly 600 mph. While in the air, not only can you use your device, the airline would like you to enable the Wi-Fi radio and pay to use the plane's network. Of course, the flight crew is allowed to, and does, use devices like the iPad during takeoff and landing. What is the rationale here? Do they think that if there's is a problem in flight there is plenty of time for the pilot to rush back from the cockpit, have everyone turn their devices off, then rush back and pull the plane out of its iPhone-induced uncontrolled nose-dive? According to Nick Biltin's blog in the New York Times, tests showed a Kindle emits an extremely low amount of radiation. One electronic device allowed by the FAA is the electronic voice recorder. It, too, was tested and found to emit more radiation than a Kindle. When in flight mode, I find it hard to believe that tablets, smartphones, MP3 players, and other e-readers would emit any more than a Kindle does. Even if these rules were shown--beyond a reasonable doubt--to be of no benefit whatsoever, it would likely take years for the FAA to actually lift the ban. Until it does, though, turn your devices off and stick them in the seatback pocket in front of you. Arguing with the crew about the absurdity of the rule won't do you any good, and the guy next to you has a connecting flight to make. http://www.informationweek.com/blog/mobility/232301085 Back to Top Struggling Jade Cargo forced to ground 747 fleet Chinese-German joint-venture freight carrier Jade Cargo has effectively suspended operations after grounding its six Boeing 747-400ERFs because it can no longer afford to fuel them. The airline is co-owned by Air China, which holds 51%, and German shareholders including Lufthansa Cargo with 25%. But a source close to the situation said the six aircraft have been withdrawn from service because the carrier is using its funds to pay financing costs on the jets rather than fuel them. The situation has been exacerbated by low cargo demand, and the source said the carrier expects the 747s to be out of service for several weeks. Despite the poor financial situation, personnel including the carrier's pilots have been paid. Discussions are taking place to find a new Chinese shareholder, added the source, because there are increasing signs that Air China is not enthusiastic about continuing its participation. Lufthansa Cargo had originally founded Jade Cargo with Shenzhen Airlines, and services began in 2006. But the takeover of Shenzhen Airlines by Air China in early 2010 has left the future of Jade uncertain, particularly after Air China demonstrated strong backing for Air China Cargo, its freight venture with Cathay Pacific, two months ago with plans for a capital injection. Lufthansa Group subsequently admitted, in late October, that it was looking at the Jade operation carefully as it sought to reduce costs. A spokesman for Lufthansa Cargo insisted that the company "believes in the future" of Jade and "hoped to find a solution in the next few weeks". He added that talks were taking place with potential new Chinese shareholders for the Shenzhen-based carrier. Chinese majority owners are required by regulation. Air China could not immediately be reached to comment on the Jade situation. Source: Air Transport Intelligence news Back to Top GoAir A320 hit by bus at Mumbai airport A GoAir Airbus A320 aircraft parked at the Mumbai airport was badly damaged yesterday when a bus rammed into its nose. The incident happened at around 4.30am local time when an unattended Jet Airways bus hit the aircraft which was parked on the tarmac. No one was onboard. "There was no injury to any GoAir customer or personnel due to the incident. The aircraft however has to be temporary withdrawn from service due to significant damaged incurred and may be grounded for several days," said the Indian low-cost carrier in a statement. "A detailed investigation of the damages is in progress," it added. Media reports in India said that the bus' brakes were not applied, which resulting in it sliding back and striking the aircraft's nose. The airline had to cancel three flights and delay four others because of the incident. GoAir operates a fleet of 11 A320-200s, all of which are on lease. Source: Air Transport Intelligence news Back to Top ASN releases preliminary airliner safety statistics 2011 The Aviation Safety Network today released the preliminary 2011 airliner accident statistics showing a total of 507 airliner accident fatalities, as a result of 28 fatal multi-engine airliner accidents. Caveat: This press release shows the figures as of December 27, 2011. Final statistics will be released on January 1, 2012. The year 2011 was a very safe year for civil aviation, Aviation Safety Network data show. The second safest year by number of fatalities and the third safest year by number of accidents. Also, 2011 marked the longest period without a fatal airliner accident in modern aviation history. This record period now stands at 75 days and counting (by December 27). Over the year 2011 the Aviation Safety Network recorded a total of 28 fatal airliner accidents, resulting in 507 fatalities and 14 ground fatalities. The number of fatalities is lower than the ten-year average of 764 fatalities. The worst accident happened on January 9, 2011 when an Iran Air Boeing 727 crashed while on approach to Orumiyeh, Iran, killing 77. The number of accidents involving passenger flights was relatively high with nineteen accidents as compared to the ten-year average of 16 accidents. Seven out of 28 accident airplanes were operated by airlines on the E.U. "black list" as opposed to six out of 29 the year before. The E.U. added a total of nine airlines to the "black list" and removed three airlines based on improved safety records. In 2011 Africa showed a continuing decline in accidents: 14% of all fatal airliner accidents happened in Africa. Although this is still out of sync compared to the fact that the continent only accounts for approximately 3 percent of all world aircraft departures. Russia suffered a very bad year with six fatal accidents. The Aviation Safety Network is an independent organisation located in the Netherlands. Founded in 1996. It has the aim to provide everyone with a (professional) interest in aviation with up-to-date, complete and reliable authoritative information on airliner accidents and safety issues. ASN is an exclusive service of the Flight Safety Foundation (FSF). The figures have been compiled using the airliner accident database of the Aviation Safety Network, the Internet leader in aviation safety information. The Aviation Safety Network uses information from authoritative and official sources. More information http://aviation-safety.net Harro Ranter the Aviation Safety Network e-mail: hr@aviation-safety.net www.aviation-safety.net Curt Lewis, P.E., CSP, FRAeS CURT LEWIS & ASSOCIATES, LLC