Flight Safety Information July 3, 2012 - No. 134 In This Issue Crash grounds key part of firefighting fleet Engine Malfunctions Caused April Va. Jet Crash ARGUS PROS Aviation Auditing Boeing lifts jet outlook to $4.5T in next 20 years Drone 'code of conduct' targets safety, privacy concerns Crash grounds key part of firefighting fleet COLORADO SPRINGS (AP) - The U.S. Air Force air tankers fighting some of the worst wildfires to have hit the western United States were grounded as investigators looked into what caused the deadly crash of a military cargo plane fighting a blaze. A C-130 Hercules lands on June 26 at Peterson Air Force Base in Colorado Springs for more fire retardant. It was fighting the Waldo Canyon fire. EnlargeClose By Christian Murdock, The Colorado Springs Gazette, via AP A C-130 Hercules lands on June 26 at Peterson Air Force Base in Colorado Springs for more fire retardant. It was fighting the Waldo Canyon fire. Sponsored LinksThe decision by the military to put seven C-130s on an indefinite "operational hold" has left 14 federally contracted heavy tankers in use until investigators gain a better understanding of what caused the crash. "You've basically lopped off eight air tankers immediately from your inventory, and that's going to make it tougher to fight wildfires," said Mike Archer, who distributes a daily newsletter of wildfire news. BLOG: 1 dead in crash of C-130 battling S.D. fire The C-130 from an Air National Guard wing based in Charlotte, N.C., was carrying a crew of six and fighting a 6.5-square-mile blaze in the Black Hills of South Dakota when it crashed Sunday, killing at least one crew member and injuring others. President Obama signed a bill last month hastening the addition of seven large tanker planes to the nation's rundown aerial firefighting fleet, at a cost of $24 million, but the first planes won't be available until mid-August. A military spokesman said he did not know when the grounded planes would resume firefighting flights. They were used to fight fires in Colorado, Wyoming, Montana and South Dakota. The C-130s can be loaded with a device called the Modular Airborne Firefighting System, or MAFFS. The system can drop 3,000 gallons of water or fire retardant within seconds through a modified side door toward the rear of the plane. C-130 air tankers have crashed on firefighting duty before. In 2002, a privately owned civilian version of an older-model C-130 crashed in California, killing three crew members. The plane broke up in flight and an investigation blamed fatigue cracks in the wings. The crash, in part, prompted a review of the airworthiness of large U.S. air tankers and led ultimately to a greatly reduced fleet of large civilian tanker planes. The 44 planes in the fleet a decade ago has dwindled to nine being flown on U.S. Forest Service exclusive use contracts right now. Another aerial firefighting plane, the Lockheed P2V, has had some problems in recent months. One crashed in Utah, killing the two pilots, and another one crash-landed in Nevada. The terrain of the crash site is "very, very rugged, straight up and straight down cliffs," said Frank Maynard, the Fall River County emergency management director. Back to Top Engine Malfunctions Caused April Va. Jet Crash (AP) A rare dual-engine failure caused a Navy jet to crash into a Virginia Beach apartment complex in April shortly after taking off from a nearby base, according to an investigative report released Monday. No one was killed when the F/A-18D Hornet crashed into the Mayfair Mews apartment complex, although the impact destroyed 27 apartments, displaced dozens and injured seven. Navy officials say the jet's two-man crew ejected at the last second possible to survive, 50 feet above the ground. The entire flight lasted 70 seconds and the plane's peak altitude was 425 feet. The plane was on its way to the Atlantic Ocean over a heavily populated area for a routine training mission at the time of the April 6 crash. The Navy says human error was not to blame and there would be no disciplinary action against the plane's crew, who have not been publicly identified. The commander of Naval Air Force Atlantic, Rear Adm. Ted Branch, said this is the first time there has been a dual-engine failure in an F/A-18 and that they were unrelated. Had only one engine failed, Branch said it's likely the jet could have continued flying. Branch said he continues to have full confidence in the safety of the airplane, which the Navy has been flying for more than 30 years. "This is our home. We recognize that flying here is not just a mission. Our families live here. When we fly here we're flying over our homes, schools and churches and day cares. We are not just concerned about the airplane and the pilots. We are concerned about our community," Branch said. The report says the engines failed for different reasons. The right engine stopped working after it ingested a flammable liquid, according to the report. That liquid ignited and caused a catastrophic failure of the compressor, leading to an engine stall, according to the report. The report says that in other crashes where the high-pressure compressor section blades in the engine failed, that liquid was later found to be fuel. The problem with the left engine had to do with its afterburner not igniting. Investigators also said that the left afterburner experienced a blowout that wasn't detected by the engine control system. The Navy was unable to determine the exact cause of that problem because of the extensive damage to the plane. "It was not a single failure, but an extremely unusual and complex multisystem emergency," Branch said. Despite the failures, the investigative report said there was still a possibility that the plane could have continued flying if the plane's crew had realized that the first serious vibration they felt and heard coming from the right side of plane was not a blown tire. Navy officials said the crew had no previous experience with a blown tire and that their reaction to what they saw and heard was reasonable. The Navy said the crew followed the proper procedures and that the loss of thrust in a second engine would be part of future training. Back to Top Back to Top Boeing lifts jet outlook to $4.5T in next 20 years Boeing Co. projects a $4.5 trillion jetliner market over the next 20 years for 34,000 new commercial jets, up nearly a half trillion dollars from the previous year's estimate on higher jetliner prices and continued inflation. "The world's aviation market is broader, deeper and more diverse than we've ever seen it," said Randy Tinseth, Boeing Commercial Airplanes vice president of marketing in a presentation in London on Tuesday. Though he cautions there are troublesome signs ahead for the world's airlines with struggling economies in Europe and slowdowns in global air cargo. As it looks out to the rest of the year, Boeing anticipates 2.5% growth in the global economy, but the company's long-term trend points to 3.2% yearly growth over the next 20 years as part of its annually updated current market outlook. That growth will drive a 4% increase in the number of people flying each year and 5% annual improvement in airline traffic, leading to a doubling of air travel over the next 20 years despite near-term uncertainty. Boeing now estimates that 41% of the new deliveries will go to replacing older less fuel- efficient jets currently in operation today. Asia Pacific, including China and India, will require the largest share of the new aircraft with 12,030 deliveries up from 11,450 the year prior, followed by Europe and North America in a distant second and third at 7,760 and 7,290 aircraft, respectively. Latin America and the Middle East markets require 2,510 and 2,370 jets between 2012 and 2031. The Middle East, which has led deliveries from Boeing and Airbus in recent years, is now forecast to need 6% fewer aircraft than Boeing's last estimate. Additionally, the Commonwealth of Independent States in the former Soviet Union, are expected to account for 1,140 deliveries and despite being the smallest market by units, Africa will require 900 aircraft, up 12.5% year over year and the single biggest percentage gain of any market. Overall, Boeing expects the world will need 500 more jets than it forecast in the 20-year period to follow 2011, ranging from small regional jets and single-aisle workhorses to large long-range twin-engine jetliners and the largest jumbo jets. The greatest share will come from deliveries of single-aisle aircraft, like the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320--and updated and more expensive models the 737 Max and A320neo due later in the decade--will see 23,240 handed over to the world's airlines in a slightly lower number than forecast last year, but still worth $2.08 trillion. Despite being down slightly from last year's 23,370 estimate, Boeing and Airbus are in the process of accelerating output of their smallest products and by the end of 2014, the two largest jet-makers will deliver 84 single-aisle jets per month, or 42 each. Airbus announced Monday it would open a U.S. assembly site in Mobile, Ala. for its A320 jets, with first deliveries beginning in 2016. The nearly 13% increase in the overall value of the market over the next two decades is due in large part to an updated estimate of the number of twin-aisle aircraft, like Boeing's 777, 767 and 787 Dreamliner. The company now expects to see 7,950 deliveries in the category, up 620 aircraft from its estimate a year prior, driving the market value higher by $310 billion to $2.08 trillion. Boeing is sharply increasing deliveries of its twin-aisle aircraft, with plans to accelerate to 8.3 777s per month, or 100 annually, starting in early 2013 and 120 Dreamliners per year by the end of 2013. The largest passenger aircraft in the world remains the smallest overall market by units with Boeing now expecting 790 deliveries, worth $280 billion, down slightly from last year's 820 aircraft. Boeing and arch-rival Airbus have continually diverged on this estimate as Airbus continues to advance its five-year-old double-deck A380 in the market. Regional jets, a category left to Brazilian Embraer SA , Canadian Bombardier Inc. /quotes/zigman/16750/quotes/nls/bdrbf BDRBF -1.39% and newcomers Russian Sukhoi Civil Aircraft Co. and the Commercial Aircraft Corp. of China, will see deliveries topping 2,020 worth $80 billion over 20 years, up slightly from the year prior. Boeing also estimates that the slower overall economic growth will hold down cargo traffic growth to 5.2% annually, down from 5.6% the year prior, but will still result in a near doubling of the cargo fleet to 3,200 aircraft, up from 1,740 aircraft today, made up of both new and converted passenger jets. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/boeing-lifts-jet-outlook-to-45t-in-next-20-years- 2012-07-03 Back to Top Drone 'code of conduct' targets safety, privacy concerns WASHINGTON - An industry group has released a "code of conduct" for the "safe, non- intrusive operation" of civilian drones. Michael Toscano, president of the Association for Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Systems International, said Monday (July 2) in a statement that the industry guidelines were designed to "ensure unmanned aircraft are integrated responsibly into civil airspace." They are also intended to "minimize risk," he added. The Federal Aviation Administration is currently establishing safety standards for integrating unmanned aircraft into the nation's airspace by September 2015. The FAA is currently selecting six test sites to evaluate drones for a range of "eye in the sky" applications. While safety is a key issue in the effort to integrate drones into the already crowded skies, privacy has also emerged as a concern. Hence, the industry group's code of conduct stresses that trained operators must "respect the rights of individuals" along with "the rights of other users of the [U.S.] airspace." "As with any revolutionary technology, there will be mishaps and abuses; however, in order to operate safely and gain public acceptance and trust, we should all act in accordance with these guiding themes and do so in an open and transparent manner," the guidelines state. The unmanned aircraft association's membership includes small and large unmanned aircraft builders ranging from Intel Americas Inc. and iRobot Corp. to Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin. The group has scheduled a privacy review panel later this month in advance of it annual North American meeting in Las Vegas from Aug. 6-9. http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4376616/Drone--code-of-conduct--targets- safety--privacy-concerns- Curt Lewis, P.E., CSP, FRAeS, FISASI CURT LEWIS & ASSOCIATES, LLC