Flight Safety Information July 9, 2012 - No. 138 In This Issue Report: Air France 447 Crashed Due To Faulty Sensors, Pilot Error Taoyuan airport reports soaring number of bird strikes US Airways plane gets stuck in 'soft spot' on pavement at Reagan National Indian jet makes emergency landing in Pakistan after reported hydraulic system failure Spirit Jet Diverts to Houston With Unruly Traveler ARGUS PROS Aviation Auditing 'Nigeria requires national carrier to avoid exploitation' Boeing Said to Win GE Jet Order as Aeromexico Nears Deal Airbus & Boeing Airplane Production Rates Straining Supply Chain Graduate Research Survey Report: Air France 447 Crashed Due To Faulty Sensors, Pilot Error Faulty warning systems and pilot error are to blame for the 2009 crash of Air France Flight 447 that killed all 228 people aboard, a report released by French air accident investigators says. The final report from the BEA, France's equivalent of the U.S. NTSB, largely confirmed results of a preliminary investigation released last year, but it offered more details and recommendations. Investigators cited "human and technical factors" for the June 1, 2009 crash in the Atlantic Ocean en route from Rio de Janeiro to Paris following a nearly two-year search for the plane's flight data recorders that finally located them in deep water in May of last year. The Airbus A330's speed sensors, known as pitot tubes, may have frozen over, giving false readings, the investigators said. After the crash, Air France conducted a fleet-wide replacement of the suspect sensors. According to the report, while Flight 447's pilot was on break, one of the copilots misread the plane's speed because of the faulty sensors and nosed up instead of down, as he should have. The plane was unable to recover from the stall and crashed. "The crew was in a state of almost total loss of control of the situation," BEA chief investigator Alain Bouillard said. The agency's director, Jean-Paul Troadec, said the accident resulted from an airplane "being taken out of its normal operating environment by a crew that had not understood the situation." The report called for better pilot training and improvements to plane warning systems. Air France, in a statement, acknowledged that "a sequence and combination of several factors - technical and human - that led to the loss of the aircraft in just over four minutes." But the airline went on to say that the BEA report "confirms that the crew was properly trained and qualified in accordance with regulations and that the aircraft systems were functioning in accordance with design and met the applicable certification criteria." Air France said had anticipated most of the report's recommendations and had already begun to make changes to its crew training programs. Airbus said it would "take all measures to contribute to this collective effort towards optimizing air safety." But, as The Associated Press reports, family members of the victims were less than satisfied with the report. Robert Soulas, who lost his daughter in the crash, said that manufacturers had "known for years" about problems with the plane's sensors but didn't replace them until after the crash. He said the "inappropriate behavior of the pilots" was prompted by "indication errors." He also said pilots should have had better training. http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2012/07/05/156303873/crash-report-confirm-air- france-447-crashed-due-to-faulty-sensors-pilot-error Back to Top Taoyuan airport reports soaring number of bird strikes Taipei, July 9 (CNA) Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport had at least one collision per week between aircraft and birds in 2011, the highest rate recorded in six years, the Flight Safety Foundation-Taiwan said Monday. From 2006 to 2011, there were 155 reports of bird strikes at the airport, 64 of which occurred in 2011. The number of bird strikes at the airport in 2011 was 2.3 times the number in 2010 when 28 cases were recorded, and 5 times the number in 2006 when there were only 13 cases. Of the 64 incidents reported in 2011, seven resulted in damage to the aircraft, the foundation said. The foundation said the high number of bird strikes at the airport could be related to its proximity to Taiwan's west coast, a habitat of migratory birds. In addition, there are many fish ponds and an abandoned military airport runway nearby, which attract birds to breed there, the foundation said. The situation not only poses a serious risk to flight safety but also leads to an unnecessary increase in operational costs for the aviation industry, the foundation said. Over the past five years, Taiwan recorded 128 cases of aircraft damage caused by bird strikes, 61.11 percent of which involved the aircraft's engines. Also, bird strikes resulted in 56 cases in which aircraft were either forced to return to the airport, abandon takeoff or make an emergency landing. Other problems caused by bird strikes included temporary closure of runways and cancellation of later flights. According to airlines' executives, it can cost NT$400,000 to replace an engine blade and over NT$10 million to replace an entire engine. Meanwhile, losses caused by flight delays can reach NT$400,000 per hour, while the cost involved in arranging new flights for affected http://focustaiwan.tw/ShowNews/WebNews_Detail.aspx?Type=aALL&ID=201207090020 Back to Top US Airways plane gets stuck in 'soft spot' on pavement at Reagan National A US Airways airplane to Charlston, S.C. got stuck in a soft spot caused by the heat on the tarmac at Reagan Airport on Friday. Things were proceeding normally Friday evening as a US Airways flight was leaving the gate at Reagan National Airport to begin its flight to Charleston, S.C. But the temperature reached 100 degrees in Washington on Friday and that apparently softened the airport paving enough to immobilize the airplane. The small vehicle that usually tows planes away from the gate tugged and pulled, but the plane was stuck. D.C. region sweats its way through heat wave, First came the record-setting heat, then the storm that knocked out power. Without air conditioning, residents are doing their best to stay cool. "It was apparently a soft spot caused by the heat," airline spokeswoman Michelle Mohr said, and the airplane "wouldn't move." A jet airliner getting stuck in the airport tarmac appeared to be one of the more unusual incidents that occurred in the Washington area amid a blistering string of daily temperatures above 95 degrees. It was "pretty rare," Mohr said. But then, she noted, "we've also had very unusual temperatures." When the first tug failed to budge the 50-seat regional jet, the 35 passengers got off. Then, a second, bigger tow vehicle was brought in. The passengers got back on. The larger tug pulled the airliner from its rut to a place where it could start its engines. After a delay of about three hours, it was on its way to Charleston. http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/crime/2012/07/08/gJQAZgG9UW_story.html Back to Top Indian jet makes emergency landing in Pakistan after reported hydraulic system failure Air India engineers said emergency landing had been a false alarm, and no hydraulic failure had occurred. An Air India plane made an emergency landing in Pakistan on Monday after a hydraulic system failure, according to reports. The A-319 Airbus, carrying six crew members and 122 passengers, landed safely at Nawab Shah airport in southern Pakistan, the Associated Press reported, citing a civil aviation spokesman. According to several reports, flight number AI-940 from Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates to New Delhi was forced to make the emergency landing after its three hydraulic systems failed. NDTV reported that none of the pane's back-up systems kicked in. "The aircraft was flying over Pakistani airspace when the pilot saw a warning light in the cockpit and sought permission to land at the nearest airport, which was Nawab Shah," an Air India representative reportedly said. However, news24online later cited Air India engineers flown to Nawab Shah airport as saying that the cockpit panel had emitted a "false alarm" about a technical problem. "There was nothing wrong with the hydraulic system of the aircraft and, apparently the cockpit panel emitted false alarm making red lights to blip," the airline officials reportedly said. "However, even such a technical glitch has to be corrected and that is being done." Air India sent a plane to bring back the passengers stranded in Pakistan by the emergency landing. Pakistan and India have a fraught relationship, having fought three wars against each other since achieving independence from Britain in 1947. However, Air India confirmed that provision had been made in Pakistan for refueling of both its planes. http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/asia- pacific/pakistan/120709/emergency-landing-air-india-pakistan-hydraulic-system Back to Top Spirit Jet Diverts to Houston With Unruly Traveler HOUSTON July 9, 2012 (AP) Spirit Airlines says one of its aircraft flying from Los Angeles to Fort Lauderdale, Fla., was diverted to Houston due to a disruptive passenger. Spirit spokeswoman Misty Pinson says the unruly passenger on Flight 310 Saturday night refused to abide by instructions from the flight crew so the pilot diverted the aircraft for the safety of all on board. Pinson says authorities at the George Bush Intercontinental Airport removed the disruptive passenger from the plane. She provided no details about the customer or the nature of the disruption. The remaining passengers boarded another plane and arrived in Fort Lauderdale on Sunday. Pinson says those passengers will all be refunded Back to Top Back to Top 'Nigeria requires national carrier to avoid exploitation' Dr Harold Demuren Director-General, Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority ( NCAA), The absence of reciprocity in the bilateral air services agreement between the Federal Government and other countries may force the government to push for the creation of a national carrier, The Nation's investigation has revealed. The exploitation of the bilateral air services agreement by many foreign carriers from Europe and the Middle East, without corresponding approvals to designated Nigerian carriers on some of the juicy routes is generating concerns in government circles. To correct the imbalance, sources hinted, the government should establish a national carrier, to match the competition posed by the mega carriers, which have identified Nigeria as a growing market for air transport. This is coming on the heels of the multiple entry points granted some foreign carriers into the country, to the detriment of designated Nigerian carriers on some intercontinental routes. From the Middle Eastern routes, three carriers fly into Nigeria. They are Emirates Airlines, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways. The Director-General, Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority ( NCAA), Dr Harold Demuren, last week called on the United Arab Emirates to approve some Nigerian carriers that have indicated interest to operate flights from Nigeria to the United Arab Emirates. Demuren explained to The Nation that the coming into Nigeria of Etihad Airways, the national carrier of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), should serve as a pointer to the need for reciprocity in the bilateral services agreement between both countries. He said the refusal by the UAE to reciprocate Nigeria's gesture and grant similar approval and access to Nigerian carriers on the route would amount to the Middle East carriers seeing the Nigerian market as open to exploitation. Demuren explained that government will do everything possible to ensure that Nigerian carriers get their own share of the international traffic as more airlines fly into Nigeria. Nigerian carriers designated to fly into the UAE include Arik Air and Air Nigeria. The position of Demuren on how to correct the imbalance on bilateral air services agreement is sequel to a request by the chief commercial officer of Etihad Airways, Peter Baumgartner, that the government considers granting entry right to the airline into the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja. Aviation experts have argued that granting such requests would amount to further opening up the market for exploitation by foreign carriers. A pilot who pleaded that his identity be veiled only the establishment of a national carrier will correct this imbalance, as the granting of multiple entry points by government to foreign airlines is one of the greatest disincentive to Nigerian carriers. He explained that with the strong presence of three Middle Eastern carriers, the possibility of any Nigerian carrier launching flights into their country of origin may not be lucrative, on account of the network strategies and other ways the carriers may cooperate to eliminate a competitor. Baumgartner, has given assurance that the carrier would weather the storm of competition with its strategy of 35 code share agreement it signed with other airlines in the international network. Speaking on the development, Chairman of Nigerian Aviation Safety Initiative( NASI), Captain Dung Pam, said : " The Nigerian aviation industry is underestimating the nature of the competition it will face from foreign carriers. On the continental level, there are certain affiliations that at best weakens any chance of a multilateral plan by airlines and governments to guard against losing strategic control of their aviation sectors http://www.thenationonlineng.net/2011/index.php/business/53118- %E2%80%98nigeria-requires-national-carrier-to-avoid-exploitation%E2%80%99.html Back to Top Boeing Said to Win GE Jet Order as Aeromexico Nears Deal Boeing Co. (BA) (BA) is poised to win an order for 100 737 narrow-body aircraft from General Electric Co. (GE) (GE)'s jet-leasing unit, a boost in the U.S. company's competition with Airbus SAS, two people with knowledge of the transaction said. GE Capital Aviation Services' purchase includes 75 upgraded 737 MAX planes, said the people, who asked not to be identified because they aren't authorized to discuss the deal. The list value would be $9.25 billion based on prices for the 737-800, the current jet's most-popular model, and its MAX equivalent. "Lessors have raised cash in the past few months, and they're going to use that to place orders," said Yan Derocles, an Oddo Securities analyst in Paris. "They suffered a lot during the financial crisis and the likes of Gecas also expected more of a downturn in demand, so there's a gap in orders for them to make up from the 2008-2010 period." The planned order comes as the Farnborough air show, the year's highest-profile aerospace trade event, begins today near London. Grupo Aeromexico SAB (AEROMEX*) is close to the purchase of about 70 mainly single-aisle jets, though that sale probably won't be done during the expo, a person familiar with those talks said. Aeromexico is considering Airbus SAS's A320neo and some A350 wide-bodies, as well as the MAX and Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner, the person said. Boeing has the upper hand after Commercial Airplanes Chief Executive Officer Ray Conner sent a sales team to Mexico to secure the order, two other people said. Lessor Orders Boeing is seeking more MAX buyers among aircraft lessors such as Gecas as it develops the fuel-efficient MAX to replace its top-selling 737. Leasing companies place planes with multiple airlines, which would broaden the base for the MAX before its 2017 commercial debut. While lessors represent about 35 percent of the installed airliner base, they account for only 20 percent or so of planemakers' current backlog, said Derocles, who has a buy rating on Airbus parent European Aeronautic, Defence & Space Co. Eric Jones, a Gecas spokesman, said the company doesn't comment on speculation about orders, and Marc Birtel, a Boeing spokesman, declined to comment. Global Fleet Narrow-body planes form the bulk of the global airline fleet, and Airbus got an eight- month head start on the A320neo by unveiling it in December 2010. That set up a rout of Boeing at the Paris air show in June 2011 as the A320neo amassed hundreds of firm purchases and commitments, and it wasn't until the following month that Boeing said it would offer the MAX. Boeing has received 451 firm orders and hundreds more commitments for the 737 MAX, according to airlines' announcements and the company's website tally through June. The MAX will be powered exclusively by new engines from CFM International, a joint venture between Fairfield, Connecticut- based GE and Paris-based Safran SA. (SAF) Aeromexico would consider splitting its plane order between Boeing and Airbus, one person said. Negotiations are continuing, the person said. Spokesmen for Toulouse, France-based Airbus and Boeing declined to comment about the pending purchase from Aeromexico, Mexico's largest airline. Calls and e-mails to the Aeromexico's investor relations offices in Mexico City seeking comment yesterday weren't returned. An order of 70 aircraft would be valued at about $6.66 billion, based on the $95.2 million price tag of the 737 MAX 8. Customers typically buy airliners at a discount. The 787-8 has a list price of $193.5 million. Aeromexico sold shares to the public last year, and the carrier has arranged financing to expand its fleet. The company said last month it has received $171 million in financing from the Export-Import Bank to finance three 737s. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-07-08/boeing-said-to-win-order-from-ge-jet- leasing-unit-for-100-737s Back to Top Airbus & Boeing Airplane Production Rates Straining Supply Chain FARNBOROUGH, United Kingdom, Jul 9, 2012 (GlobeNewswire via COMTEX) -- Airbus and Boeing are gearing up to roll out large commercial jetliners in ever-increasing quantities over the next 10 years, according to a new report from Forecast International, but will component suppliers be able to keep up with demand? Forecast International's newly released "The Market for Large Commercial Jet Transports" projects that 14,655 large commercial airliners will be produced in the 10- year period from 2012 to 2021. The Connecticut-based market research firm estimates the value of this production at $2.04 trillion in constant 2012 U.S. dollars. Airbus and Boeing, the two dominant manufacturers in the market, are implementing production increases, and are considering additional increases for the future. However, determining how fast and high to increase production is a tricky proposition for the two companies. In addition to the vulnerability of their supply chains, another concern is the overall health of the airline industry. The desire of Airbus and Boeing to expand production is putting a considerable strain on their suppliers, especially in light of ongoing global economic sluggishness and uncertainty. In such an environment, a number of suppliers may be unable or even unwilling to support continual production increases. Adding to the pressure on suppliers is the fact that Airbus and Boeing are shifting their focus from manufacturing to integration, and are looking to outsource more design and production responsibilities. According to Forecast International senior aerospace analyst Raymond Jaworowski, "The potential for bottlenecks among suppliers means that Airbus and Boeing need to tread cautiously when it comes to future production increases." A second major concern is the health of the airline industry. Air traffic is growing, and the industry as a whole is profitable. Still, many individual airlines are experiencing financial difficulties, including some carriers that have hundreds of orders on the books for new aircraft. At the same time, Airbus and Boeing have considerable incentive to keep production rates high and growing. The two companies hold large numbers of unfilled orders, but this means long waiting times for customers to take delivery of their aircraft, which often results in considerable frustration for these customers. A lack of early delivery slots could also tempt potential buyers to take a serious look at new aircraft emerging from manufacturers outside of the Airbus/Boeing duopoly. Such aircraft include the Bombardier CSeries, the COMAC C919, and the Irkut MC-21. With an eye on this new competition, Airbus and Boeing have launched development of new, re-engined versions of their narrowbody airliner families. The Airbus A320neo series and the Boeing 737 MAX family will battle each other for the lion's share of the narrowbody market. In the widebody segment of the large airliner market, the new Boeing 787 entered service in 2011. The Airbus response to this new aircraft is the A350 XWB, which is currently scheduled to enter service in 2014. The A350 is also aimed at the popular Boeing 777, with the result that Boeing is looking at ways to upgrade the 777. Forecast International, Inc. ( www.forecastinternational.com ) is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics. Based in Newtown, Conn., USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market assessments used by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military organizations, and governments worldwide. To arrange an interview with Forecast International's editors, please contact Ray Peterson, Vice President, Research & Editorial Services (203) 426-0800, ray.peterson@forecast1.com. Questions regarding sales may be directed to sales@forecast1.com. The Forecast International, Inc. logo is available at http://www.globenewswire.com/newsroom/prs/?pkgid=13458 This news release was distributed by GlobeNewswire, www.globenewswire.com SOURCE: Forecast International, Inc. Back to Top Graduate Research Survey If you are a professional pilot, you are eligible and invited to take this short survey. Commercial (Professional) Pilot Career Outlook Survey This 25 question survey will be used to collect data for my Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University graduate capstone course research project. Using data from this survey and other sources, I hope to analyze the need for a more strategic means of commercial pilot selection, development, staff level, and staff distribution. The goal of my project is to apply supply chain management strategies to commercial pilot human resource management. Data collected from this survey will be used for educational purposes only and individual respondents survey results will be kept confidential. Here is a link to the survey. http://tolu.na/Ndr60c Any questions or comments regarding this survey may be directed to Nick Ohman at ohmann@my.erau.edu Thank you for taking the time to complete my survey! Curt Lewis, P.E., CSP, FRAeS, FISASI CURT LEWIS & ASSOCIATES, LLC