Flight Safety Information May 7, 2013 - No. 093 In This Issue Time Is Ticking for NTSB Battery Investigation Airplane engines catch fire as Japan Airlines flight lands in Osaka Nigerian Military Jet Crashes in Niger, Two Dead Nepal launches four day aviation safety campaign TSA collects 25 handguns at airport checkpoints Special needs teen lost at airport after flight diverts to Tampa FAA Safety Oversight Of Aircraft Repairs Faulted In Report DOT OIG Report Highlights Opportunities to Improve FAA Maintenance Oversight Annual SMS Audit Results Released ISASI seeking Nominations for Jerome F. Lederer Award Qatar Airways in talks with Airbus to buy up to 15 jets Airlines posturing for Boeing Dreamliner grounding compensation Resort Airports in Stormy SE Asia Leave Safety to Chance PRISM Analysis of ARGUS PROS Performed Audits Indicates Deficiencies in Flight Departments Risk Assessment Time Is Ticking for NTSB Battery Investigation The NTSB has issued an "urgent" procurement request to have a Maryland company perform computed tomography (CT) scans starting May 6 on as many as 48 Boeing 787 lithium-ion battery cells. The work signals a rush for the Board to find a root cause for the battery issues that grounded the fleet as airlines begin revenue service with modified 787s this month and into June. "[The tests] must also be completed within the shortest timeframe possible to provide the fastest possible receipt of this information to avoid potential future accidents involving this type of aircraft battery," says the NTSB in a "sources sought" notice published on May 3. "Since the FAA has recently approved a plan intended to result in the Boeing787 being approved for a return to service, the information from these tests (and the CT scans required to support these tests) is needed as soon as possible," says the NTSB. The work is expected to take one week, with a final report issued no later than 10 days thereafter. The request comes two weeks after the FAA on April 19 approved Boeing's fix for the battery problems that grounded the 50-aircraft fleet in January following two battery incidents, one on the ground and one in the air. At issue are as of yet unexplained thermal runaways that began in one or more cells in the APU battery and spread to adjacent cells. Boeing's fix, which technicians are now installing on the fleet, includes batteries with more insulation between cells and a 1/8th- in.-thick stainless steel battery enclosure with a vent line assembly to dump smoke overboard if a thermal runaway in one cell does occur. Based on the urgent procurement, the NTSB remains concerned that the root cause of the problem has not been identified, a stance the Board took during a two-day investigative hearing on April 23 and 24 regarding the troubled path to certification for the battery. In the sources sought notification, the NTSB says it is planning to "conduct teardown examinations as soon as possible" of several aircraft batteries similar to the "one involved in an aircraft incident" as part of its Boston investigation. Highlighting the continued concern in the aviation industry about lithium-ion battery technology, the NTSB mandated that the contract be issued to a local company, as the cells cannot be shipped via air cargo. http://www.aviationweek.com/Blogs.aspx?plckBlogId=Blog:7a78f54e-b3dd-4fa6-ae6e- dff2ffd7bdbb&plckPostId=Blog%3A7a78f54e-b3dd-4fa6-ae6e- dff2ffd7bdbbPost%3A34a11981-5320-414b-9285-a2aaf560aa01 Back to Top Airplane engines catch fire as Japan Airlines flight lands in Osaka The Japanese government's transport ministry revealed on Monday that a Japan Airlines (JAL)-operated plane landed at Osaka International Airport, promptly followed by one of its engines catching fire. The aircraft was a Bombardier CRJ200 arriving on a domestic flight from Oita Prefecture, in southwestern Japan. Airport officials confirmed that none of the 52 passengers aboard the plane, or the three crew members, were injured. Reports said that a cockpit display lit up indicating a fire in one of the two engines as the aircraft was being taxied along the tarmac. Power to the engines was immediately turned off, with the fire extinguishing system activated, the ministry said, while a mechanic later confirmed traces of the fire upon inspection. Three agents from the Japan Transport Safety Board will be sent to the Osaka airport to carry out an investigation into what started the fire. Despite "international" in the name, the airport, located right in-between Osaka and Hyogo prefectures, now only serves domestic flights. A spokesman for JAL commented that the airplane was scheduled to make another flight to Hokkaido, in northern Japan, later that afternoon, along with a return flight, however the round-trip was cancelled. The airline added that the fire did not affect any of its passengers' travel plans. http://japandailypress.com/airplane-engines-catch-fire-as-japan-airlines-flight-lands-in- osaka-0728335 Back to Top Nigerian Military Jet Crashes in Niger, Two Dead NIAMEY - A Nigerian fighter jet taking part in military operations against al Qaeda-linked Islamic militants in Mali crashed in western Niger, killing its two crew, Niger and Nigerian officials said on Monday. The incident marked the first casualties in Mali for Nigerian troops, which form the largest contingent in a West African regional force participating in the French-led campaign to drive Islamist rebels from the country's desert north. Air Commodore Yusuf Anas, spokesman for the Nigerian Air Force, said the plane was an Alpha jet stationed in Niger as part of a Nigerian squadron supporting the mission in Mali. "An investigation is going on to find out what happened," he said. They were on a normal routine flight about 60 km (37 miles) west of Niamey when something happened," Anas told Reuters. Asked if there was any evidence of anti-aircraft fire, he said: "We don't know but it was inside Nigerien territory." A Niger security source said the jet crashed near Dargol in the Tillabery region which borders Mali. "The plane was not shot at. It was not in enemy territory so for now we are looking at maybe a mechanical problem," another security official from Niger, who asked not to be identified, said. http://www.voanews.com/content/nigerian-military-jet-crashes-in-niger-two- dead/1655716.html ************* Date: 06-MAY-2013 Time: Type: Alpha Operator: Nigerian Air Force Registration: C/n / msn: Fatalities: Fatalities: 2 / Occupants: 2 Other fatalities: 0 Airplane damage: Written off (damaged beyond repair) Location: Dargol in western Niger - Niger Phase: En route Nature: Military Departure airport: Niamey airport Destination airport: Narrative: Crashed under unknown circumstances. The Nigerian Air Force Alpha jet was one of the four based in Niamey (Niger) as part of the African-led Support Mission in Mali www.aviation-safety.net Back to Top Nepal launches four day aviation safety campaign Nepal launches four day aviation safety campaign Kathmandu: Nepal, which has witnessed a number of air crashes, on Monday launched an awareness campaign seeking to enhance the level of air safety by imparting training to 160 airlines staff. The four day aviation safety awareness campaign began in Gokarna Forest Resort in Kathmandu, with the government promising to remain committed to its goal of strengthening aviation security. "We will always remain firm in our commitment towards strengthening international aviation security and safety standards to cherish our objectives of safe, secure and sustainable civil aviation," Minister for Tourism and Civil Aviation Ram Kumar Shrestha said while inaugurating the function. Nepal launches four day aviation safety campaign "There has been significant initiations in the recent past for the sake of enhancing air safety. A massive effort is going on in the development of aviation infrastructure throughout the country," Director General of Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal Triratna Mananandhar said. Lukla airfield, listed as one of the dangerous airfields in the world, is being equipped with VAGS (Visual Approach Guidance System) and APAPI (abbreviated Precision Approach Path Indicator) this year, he said. VAGS is a system of lights on the side of an airport runway threshold that provides visual descent guidance information during approach. Whereas, APAPI is a visual aid that provides guidance information to help a pilot acquire and maintain the correct approach to the airport. Nepal launches four day aviation safety campaign 160 airlines staff from 17 airlines are undergoing the training in the air safety workshop being organised jointly by CAAN, International Finance Corporation, World Food Programme and Yeti Airlines. Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal has prioritised infrastructure upgrades for improving air safety within Nepal, which includes installations of latest RADaR system, said Valentino Bagatsing, Resident Representative of IFC in Nepal. In a period of three years starting from August 2010, 67 people have died in four major plane crash incidents in Nepal. In last incident in September 2012, all 19 people on board a small passenger aircraft died after it crashed in to the mountains of the northern Himalayas. PTI http://zeenews.india.com/news/south-asia/nepal-launches-four-day-aviation-safety- campaign_846913.html Back to Top TSA collects 25 handguns at airport checkpoints Twenty-five would-be fliers learned an expensive lesson at the nation's airports last week: It's not a good idea to pack a gun in your carry-on bag. In addition to 25 handguns - 21 of them loaded and six with a chambered round - the Transportation Security Administration confiscated nine stun guns, two "hair brush daggers," and the usual assortment of knives, clubs and brass knuckles. When TSA agents confiscate weapons at airport security checkpoints, they don't give them back. They are turned over to local police. In some states where it's legal to carry loaded guns, police may allow people caught with guns to check them or return them to their cars. Even relatively inexpensive handguns can cost several hundred dollars. The fact that the passengers in these cases were allowed to continue their trips after their weapons were confiscated indicates that authorities found no reason to believe they were bent on terrorism or other violence. It also speaks to the number of people who carry weapons so routinely that they apparently forget they are in their purse, briefcase or backpack. The TSA said the number of people getting caught with handguns is on the increase, but a spokesman said he wasn't certain that 25 confiscations in a week set a record. Fifteen of the guns were found at airports in the South or Southwest, with five of them in Texas. A loaded .45 caliber gun was confiscated April 27 at Dulles International Airport. Two were taken in Pittsburgh and one in Newark. Two of the stun guns were discovered in Denver and two more in Sacramento. It is legal to carry some weapons on airplanes, provided they are in checked luggage. They must be unloaded and secured in hard-sided, locked containers. Any toy or replica guns that could be mistaken for the real thing also are banned from carry-on bags. http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/tsa-collects-25-handguns-at- airport-checkpoints/2013/05/06/45d213de-b66a-11e2-92f3-f291801936b8_story.html Back to Top Special needs teen lost at airport after flight diverts to Tampa TAMPA, Fla.- It was supposed to be an easy flight from Idaho to Florida, with just a single stop. But when Joshua Arvin's US Airways flight was diverted to Tampa last Thursday, the 15-year-old with an Asperger's syndrome-like condition, was left in an unfamiliar city, not knowing what to do or who to ask for help. "As soon as it changed from diverted to canceled, that's when I was worried," said Joshua's mother, Tracy, from her home in South Florida. Tracy said she was keeping close tabs on her son's flight, and at the first sign of a problem she immediately called the airline. "They basically said, 'We can't do anything, we can't contact the airport, we can't do anything, we don't know where the flight is going, we can't help you,'" recalled Tracy. Frantic, she began calling airport police. By that time, investigators say her son had already made it to the baggage claim area and was spotted on airport security cameras leaving the airport in a cab. Tracy later found out her son had tried to "charter" a bus to Tampa, but was told it would cost $5,000. Instead, he took a cab to the city bus station downtown, but was not allowed to board because he did not have identification. "To be totally lost out in the world and to not know where he was and how he was getting home and not to know where anyone was, it had to be the most horribly frightening thing for my son," said Tracy. It wasn't until hours later, at well after 11:00 at night, when Joshua was finally found by a good Samaritan wandering the streets of Tampa near Martin Luther King and 22nd Street. "She asked him, 'Where are you trying to go?' and explained to him, 'You can't go back to the airport,' that it's closed up now, and asked if she could help him and that's when she called Joshua's dad." Detective Lopez of the Tampa Police Department immediately sent officers to pick Joshua up until his parents could arrive from South Florida. "I'm so grateful for him," said Joshua's mother. "Detective Lopez was so amazing. He knows Joshua has special needs, he asked if Joshua can get anything to eat." Joshua's mother also thanks Donna, the good Samaritan who first found her son. "I'm sending her a thank you!" US Airways said it takes the safety of all passengers seriously, but situations like this is why the airline does not accept responsibility for unaccompanied minors on connecting flight. "So many things can happen." Joshua's mother said she has learned a lesson too. "Unaccompanied minor or not, make sure your son or daughter has a charged cell phone and knows to ask an adult for help." http://www.wtsp.com/news/topstories/article/315240/250/Special-needs-teen-lost-at- airport-after-flight-diverts-to-Tampa Back to Top FAA Safety Oversight Of Aircraft Repairs Faulted In Report By JOAN LOWY WASHINGTON (AP) - The government's oversight of hundreds of domestic and overseas repair stations that service U.S. airliners is ineffective and doesn't target the factors most likely to present safety risks, the Department of Transportation's inspector general said Monday. The Federal Aviation Administration's supposedly risk-based safety inspection system "falls short of being truly risk-based," especially for foreign repair stations, a report by the inspector general said. Among the inspector general's criticisms is that the FAA's oversight lacks the rigor needed to identify safety deficiencies and verify that problems are corrected once identified. To save money, U.S. airlines have increasingly outsourced their aircraft repair and maintenance to repair stations in countries where labor rates are cheaper. The FAA annually inspects 559 repair stations worldwide, while aviation authorities in France, Germany and Ireland inspect another 162 stations under agreements with the U.S. Auditors from the inspector general's office visited or contacted FAA inspection offices and 27 aircraft repair stations in the U.S., Brazil, China, New Zealand, Peru and Singapore. "The FAA's ability to conduct effective and consistent inspections of foreign and domestic repair stations is hindered by a lack of standardized inspection processes," the report said. Inspectors don't use a standardized checklist for conducting inspections, don't enter complete information on their inspections into FAA's inspection database, and don't effectively communicate the results of their inspections with repair station officials afterwards, the report said. Inspectors were often vague about the problems they found, citing the safety regulation that was violated without explaining what specifically the facility was doing that violated the regulation. "Officials from one foreign repair station were so frustrated by poor communication with its inspectors that they decided it was easier and more efficient to fly to the United States to meet with FAA for clarification and guidance," the report said. In another case cited in the report, officials for a repair station told auditors they didn't hurry to address oversights because the FAA inspector wrote out the requested changes by hand instead of typing, therefore they assumed the changes weren't significant. FAA inspectors are supposed to use web-based spreadsheets and other risk-assessment tools. But nearly all the inspectors interviewed by auditors said they were not trained how to use the tools, did not recall the training or regarded it as poor, the report said. Since FAA inspectors don't have the time during inspection visits to examine in depth each area of a repair station's operations, the agency decided five years ago that inspectors would analyze data from past inspections to decide which areas deserved the most attention. However, the report said inspectors have been using only the results of the previous year's inspections to guide their decisions rather than inspections from multiple years. One year, which probably includes only one previous inspection, isn't statistically significant, said John Goglia, an expert on aircraft maintenance. Without more years and other information that airlines have, such as the problems that may arise in planes after they've been repair, it's not possible to do a risk-based analysis, he said. Inspectors also continued to perform inspections in areas of repair station operations where little or no risk was previously detected, the report said. "They're just touching the surface and they're not digging deeply into anything," said Goglia, a former National Transportation Safety Board member. Auditors also found deficiencies in 57 of 119 work orders for repair or major maintenance to airliners that they analyzed. Deficiencies included mechanics with insufficient training, tools whose calibrations were outdated, and inaccurate documentation of work orders. "Until the agency modifies its inspection system, FAA's ineffective oversight could lead to repair stations operating contrary to federal aviation regulations and decreasing the margin of safety," the report said. In a response included with the report, FAA officials concurred with nine recommendations made by auditors. The agency said it is also working on a new safety oversight system which it plans to begin implementing in 2015, a two-year delay from its originally planned rollout. FAA also said that in "the near term" it will improve inspector training and guidance aimed at providing more comprehensive and standardized procedures for conducting inspections and reporting inspection findings. Officials for the Aeronautical Repair Station Association, which represents repair facilities, said they hope the report will motivate the FAA to make the changes necessary to improve the quality of its industry oversight. "Our association has long urged the FAA to move to a standardized approach to repair station oversight and target inspections based on risk assessments to use limited resources more efficiently," Sarah MacLeod, the association's executive director, said. ___ Follow Joan Lowy on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/AP_Joan_Lowy http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/06/faa-oversight_n_3223057.html Back to Top DOT OIG Report Highlights Opportunities to Improve FAA Maintenance Oversight Source: Aeronautical Repair Station Association (ARSA) The FAA has been too slow in shifting to risk-based oversight of the aviation maintenance industry, a report released today by the Department of Transportation's Office of Inspector General (OIG) found. ALEXANDRIA, VIRGINIA - The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has been too slow in shifting to risk-based oversight of the aviation maintenance industry, a report released today by the Department of Transportation's Office of Inspector General (OIG) found. The OIG prepared the report titled "FAA Continues to Face Challenges in Implementing a Risk-Based Approach for Repair Station Oversight" at the request of the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Transportation & Infrastructure's Subcommittee on Aviation. The OIG investigation focused on "(1) determining whether the FAA's oversight includes accurate and timely risk assessment of repair station, and (2) evaluating the effectiveness of the FAA's oversight of foreign and domestic repair stations." The OIG's most important finding was the FAA has been more focused on mandatory inspections than shifting limited oversight resources to high risk areas. The Aeronautical Repair Station Association (ARSA), which represents aviation maintenance and manufacturing companies, has long echoed concerns expressed in the report and worked with regulators and lawmakers to improve the quality of oversight. To improve regulation of the aviation maintenance industry, ARSA believes the OIG should ensure the FAA issues regulations in strict accordance with statutes; provides clear, concise guidance material to its workforce and the public; and enforces the regulations uniformly and consistently. While the report highlights the need to improve the way the FAA does its job, air travelers should rest easy. "Shortcomings at the FAA don't translate into safety deficiencies in the industry," ARSA Executive Vice President Christian A. Klein said. "Regardless of whether or not regulators are looking over their shoulders, our members have an overwhelming business incentive to achieve the highest levels of safety possible." Although the report never questioned the quality of repair stations' work or raised safety concerns, the OIG cited examples of technical violations of the FAA's policies, suggesting enhanced agency oversight would improve compliance. ARSA is concerned that an investigation intended to examine problems with regulators focuses, though fleetingly, on repair station conduct. "The OIG's explicit role is to audit for the efficient and effective use of agency resources and investigate waste, fraud and abuse," ARSA Executive Director Sarah MacLeod said. "In its auditing role, the OIG should be reviewing the FAA's ability to make, interpret and enforce its rules." "It's ironic that the OIG questions the methodology of the findings of past FAA inspections yet assumes the validity of its own audits without giving the repair station community a chance to rebut," MacLeod said. ARSA hopes the report will motivate the FAA to make the changes necessary to improve the quality of its industry oversight. "Our association has long urged the FAA to move to a standardized approach to repair station oversight and target inspections based on risk assessments to use limited resources more efficiently," MacLeod said. "ARSA looks forward to working with Congress and the FAA to address the issues raised in the report, improve the quality of oversight, and achieve our common goal of the safest, most efficient civil aviation system in the world." http://www.aviationpros.com/press_release/10937599/dot-oig-report-highlights- opportunities-to-improve-faa-maintenance-oversight Back to Top Back to Top The International Society of Air Safety Investigators IS SEEKING NOMINATIONS FOR THE JEROME F. LEDERER AWARD CHAIRMAN'S COMMENTS. No new nominations for the award were received this past year. Usually we get one to three nominations per year. Surely there are some deserving investigators among us. Therefore, I urge you to nominate a person or persons who you believe deserves consideration for this award. The ISASI Awards Committee is seeking nominations for the 2013 Jerome F. Lederer Award. For consideration this year, nomination letter must be received by May 31, 2013 The purpose of the Jerome F. Lederer Award is to recognize outstanding contributions to technical excellence in accident investigation. The Award is presented each year during our annual seminar to a recipient who is recognized for positive advancements in the art and science of air safety investigation. The nomination process is quite simple. Any member of ISASI may submit a nomination. The nominee may be an individual, a group of individuals, or an organization. The nominee is not required to be an ISASI member. The nomination may be for a single event, a series of events or a lifetime of achievement. The ISASI Awards Committee considers such traits as duration and persistence, standing among peers, manner and techniques of operating, and of course achievements. Once nominated, a nominee is considered for the next three years and then dropped. After an intervening year, the candidate may be nominated for another three-year period. The nomination letter for the Lederer Award should be limited to a single page. This award is one of the most significant honors an accident investigator can receive; therefore, considerable care is given in determining the recipient. Each ISASI member should thoughtfully review his or her association with professional investigators, and submit a nomination when they identify someone who has been outstanding in increasing the technical quality of accident investigation. Additional information regarding the award can be found on the ISASI website. Nominations should be mailed, or e-mailed to the ISASI office or directly to the Awards Committee Chairman, Gale Braden, 13805 Edmond Gardens Drive Edmond, OK 73013 USA, email address, galebraden@cox.net Back to Top Qatar Airways in talks with Airbus to buy up to 15 jets Chief Executive of Qatar Airways Akbar Al Baker laughs during the Arabian Travel Market at Dubai International Convention and Exhibition Centre in Dubai, May 6, 2013. (Reuters) - Qatar Airways is in talks with Airbus (EAD.PA) to buy up to 15 of the European planemaker's A330 passenger jets, a deal potentially worth $3.6 billion at list prices, citing production delays to Boeing's (BA.N) 787 Dreamliner aircraft. "We are talking to Airbus about A330s to fill in the gap that the Dreamliner delays have caused Qatar Airways ... Anywhere between 10 and 15 (aircraft)," Chief Executive Akbar al Baker told Reuters on Monday. "It's a new order," he said, adding the deal would be finalized by June's Paris Air Show. Qatar is among airlines expecting to receive compensation for delays to the delivery schedule for the 787 caused by a series of production snags, and for the grounding in January of Dreamliners already delivered due to battery faults. Baker said at a press conference in Dubai on Monday that the airline had to forego $200 million in revenue up until April 2013 because of the grounding. It expects to have all five of its Dreamliners which were delivered before the grounding back in service with modified batteries before the end of May. "We have already spoken to them. We are done," he said on the topic of compensation, declining to provide further details. Airbus is benefiting from a revival in sales of the A330 since the 787 encountered production delays even though Boeing plans to bring out a new 320-seat stretched 787 that it believes will eclipse the A330's appeal. "The 787 should be an A330 killer but it is late and the penalty payments (from Boeing to airlines) are coming straight to Airbus in the form of new A330 sales," said an aerospace analyst at the Teal Group consultancy in a recent interview. Boeing is looking for a prominent customer like Qatar to launch the stretched Dreamliner, code-named 787-10X, which it believes will appeal to airlines that do not need the range of other new jets but want the lower fuel costs of the 787's lightweight design. Analysts say Airbus has breathed new life into the A330 by playing up its availability and reliability, while discounting the price to ensure total ownership costs come in below the 787. Qatar's decision to look at more A330s does not mean it will ignore the 787-10X, a design concept which Baker has praised for promising low seat-mile costs, but highlights the tough battle being fought between old and new technology at the smaller end of the widebody jet market. 777X ORDERS At the larger 'mini-jumbo' end of that market, rival Gulf airline Emirates EMIRA.UL said on Monday it would replace a major part of its 777 fleet with Boeing's new 777X offering. "It'll be a large order," the airline's president Tim Clark told reporters, without specifying the number of planes he plans to order. Fast-growing Gulf carriers are expected to be the first and biggest customers for Boeing's latest offering, which has been presented to customers around the world. Emirates is the largest 777 customer with a fleet of 175 jets. "I'm not saying we'll be buying 175 of them (777X) but we need to replace (the 777s) from 2017," said Clark. He added that Emirates would be looking at both the 8X and the 9X version of the 777X. The 350-seat 777-8X is expected to be the world's longest-range jetliner. Gulf airlines are expanding their reach globally, ordering more planes and forging alliances with other carriers. Abu Dhabi's Etihad Airways took a 24 percent stake in India's Jet Airways (JET.NS) in April for $379 million, while Baker said on Monday Qatar Airways would like to cooperate with India's biggest domestic carrier Indigo. "We hope that on the level of the management we will begin talking to them," Baker said. "I don't want to talk about stakes. I don't have so much money to buy stakes in airlines Back to Top Airlines posturing for Boeing Dreamliner grounding compensation Company likely to provide discounts on future purchases instead of cash ANA Conducts Test Flight Of Boeing 787 Airlines that purchased Boeing 787s are grumbling about compensation for lost profit resulting from the Dreamliner's three-month grounding for battery problems, but analysts don't believe the company would be affected financially by potential payouts. (Tomohiro Ohsumi, Bloomberg / April 27, 2013) Airlines around the world recently have amped up their comments about receiving potential compensation from Chicago-based Boeing Co. due to the global grounding of the 787 Dreamliner because of overheating batteries. For example, the CEO of Qatar Airways on Monday said the airline had to forgo $200 million in lost revenue through April because of the 100-day grounding of the Boeing planes. While individual airlines have quoted lost revenue figures in the hundreds of millions of dollars, the amounts are really laying groundwork for negotiations on future purchases and have little to do with how much Boeing might actually compensate them, industry experts say. "That's why they're coming out and making these comments, to get a better deal, to get a better negotiating angle," said Morningstar aviation analyst Neal Dihora. Said Clark Leake, aerospace analyst with BB&T Capital Markets, "It's all posturing." Boeing is quite unlikely to be writing checks for anywhere near those amounts. That's because any compensation would be based on lost profit, not lost revenue. And it would likely be in the form of discounts on future Boeing aircraft, spare parts and services, not cash. And the public will probably never know the cost. That's because of the opaque nature of Boeing's accounting system and the private nature of aircraft negotiations, in which very few prices are fixed. Further, costs can be spread over decades, watering down the impact on Boeing. "Normally, the way this is dealt with is horse-trading," Leake said. "There will be no press announcement. It will just go away." For the record, Boeing says it doesn't have to compensate airlines at all. "We have no contractual obligation to pay customers based on this particular issue," Boeing CEO Jim McNerney said last week following the company's annual meeting in Chicago. "But when we've impacted our customers significantly, we will find ways to work with them to lower the impact." Boeing has repeatedly refused to estimate the value of any compensation it might give airlines. But whatever compensation is given, it won't affect Boeing financially to any noticeable degree. If compensation for all 50 Dreamliners that were grounded for three months amounts to something on the order of $60 million, which is Dihora's estimate of the lost profit, it ends up being a drop in the bucket, because the cost can be spread over many years and Boeing is such a large company. Boeing had about $82 billion in revenue last year and is the 30th-largest company in the Fortune 500. A single Dreamliner has a list price of $207 million. "That's the beauty of Boeing's commentary; they know we can't figure it out," Dihora said. Dihora said compensation wouldn't impact Boeing if his figure was off by a factor of five and was closer to $300 million. "That's still a pittance compared with their $6.3 billion in operating income from last year," he said. And again that compensation will be in the form of future discounts. "There's no way Boeing is going to write a check, because they don't have to," he said. Leake said even if the airlines' lost profit was closer to his estimate of $102 million, and Boeing decided to "meet airlines halfway" and pay half, you're talking about $50 million. "It's real money and real cash, but it's (in the form of) forgone profits," he said. "But it's just lost in the fog of a large aircraft transaction." Still, it's possible Boeing would reimburse some airlines for aircraft they were forced to lease while their Dreamliners were grounded, Leake said. And even if that reimbursement reached $100 million to $150 million, it wouldn't matter, even adding in the cost of retrofitting existing planes with new battery systems, which the Federal Aviation Administration estimated to cost about a half-million dollars per plane. "Spread out over a 30- or 40-year program, it disappears," he said. http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-0507-notebook-airlines- 20130507,0,5672893.story Back to Top Resort Airports in Stormy SE Asia Leave Safety to Chance JAKARTA/DENPASAR, INDONESIA - It's the invisible enemy: something all pilots dread as they land at Asia's tropical island resorts. Wind shear, or the sudden change in wind speed and direction, is particularly hazardous at landing, but some of the region's best known holiday spots in Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines do not have detection systems on the ground to warn pilots, according to airport officials. This phenomenon of turbulent winds is common in equatorial Southeast Asia. A Lion Air pilot of a new Boeing Co 737 passenger jet that crashed off Bali only last month told investigators how his plane was "dragged down" by wind into the sea just short of the runway. Remarkably, no one died. "There are quite violent thunderstorms that are huge. You can easily exceed the capability of the airplane in severe wind shear," said Richard Woodward, a Qantas Airways Ltd captain who flies A380s. "The beauty of having a ground-based system is they can tell in advance if wind shear is present," said Woodward, who has flown in the region for more than 30 years. A ground warning system, which costs about $1 million, can help spot dangerous winds in the plane's flight path, giving pilots more time to avoid them. But even as revenues rise and building work on glitzy new terminals charges ahead, officials say the airports at Bali, Koh Samui, Langkawi and Cebu do not have the on- ground wind shear detection equipment. Asked whether the industry supported ground-based systems, Airbus spokesman Martin Fendt said: "We would support any initiative that aims to improve aviation safety. Regarding installations at airports, that is a matter for airport operators and the relevant authorities." Both Boeing and Airbus say they have on-board wind shear detection systems. Combined the two wind shear detection systems give pilots a better chance of flying to safety. Act Fast Adverse wind conditions are involved in more than 30 percent of accidents globally at approach or landing, Airbus says. Upon hearing a wind shear alarm, the pilot has a matter of seconds to level the wings, apply full engine power and ease the nose up to cancel the landing and avoid the intense patch of turbulence. The Lion Air budget carrier that crashed last month was caught in an unexpected downdraft in a rain cloud even as the airport reported clear weather, said a source who was briefed on the investigations, declining to be identified because the findings are not yet public. Investigators are likely to examine whether the Boeing 737-800's onboard wind shear alarm went off, and if it did, when and how the pilot responded, and how the brand-new jet reacted. Indonesia's air transport safety chief Masruri, who goes by one name, declined to give the cause of the crash ahead of its report on the investigation. Local media says it could take up to four months to publish the report. Gleaming Facades As the middle class grows in Southeast Asia, plane travel increases, with low-cost carriers such as Indonesia's privately-owned Lion Air and Malaysia's AirAsia Bhd winning 52 percent of the region's market share. That is almost double the level of five years ago. But behind the facades of the new terminal buildings is a chronic shortage of weather detectors, runways, air traffic control staff and pilots to cope with the burgeoning demand for flying in a region home to 600 million people. None of the airports in Indonesia or the Philippines has low-level wind shear alert systems (LLWAS) on the ground, airport and government officials say. The Jakarta and Bali airports might get LLWAS next year, according to the Indonesian state weather agency, which is responsible for funding such systems. "LLWAS is not yet in place in Indonesia, maybe because of budgets," said Syamsul Huda, director for aviation and meteorology at the agency. "I feel it is more safe with the system." The Malaysian island of Langkawi has an Instrument Landing System (ILS), which helps guide pilots when they cannot see the runway, but does not have a wind shear detection system. The Thai island of Koh Samui, famed for its reefs and beaches, lacks both an ILS and wind shear detection systems. The country's top beach resort Phuket has both, and nearby Krabi recently installed a wind shear alarm. Strong winds on approach to the Phuket runway led to pilot errors that resulted in a One- Two-Go plane crashing in 2007, killing 90 people, according to investigators. Budget carrier One-Two-Go, owned by Thai aviation veteran Udom Tantiprasongchai, now flies by the name Orient Thai Airlines. Where's the Runway? The state-owned airport in Bali has seen its number of passengers grow by two-thirds in the past five years to 14 million people annually, and expects over 20 million in coming years. A $290 million new terminal, to be ready for an APEC summit of world leaders this year, will have a roof shaped like flowing waves that absorbs the sun's rays and recycles storm water. But there's no space for a new runway, with the current one having been extended into the sea already. It is, however, long enough to take U.S. President Barack Obama's Air Force One. The existing runway has no ILS for planes approaching from the western side, as the ill- fated Lion Air jet did. Instead, it has an ILS system for planes coming from the east, and a simpler VOR navigational system that relies on the pilot seeing the runway, from the west. The Lion Air pilots lost sight of the runway in a rain cloud and the plane fell into the water as they tried to go around for a second landing attempt, according to the source briefed on the investigations. NASA helped develop predictive systems for U.S. airlines and airports after the inability to detect wind shear led to a Delta Air Lines Inc crash that killed 137 in 1985. One of the companies manufacturing the ground system is Finland's Vaisala Oyj. Research by Massachusetts Institute of Technology suggests there has not been a wind shear-related accident at an airport that operates modern wind shear detection systems. But equipping airports and planes with warning systems is only half the solution - you also need qualified professionals to operate and monitor the devices, and then act with a cool head. In a run-down office at Bali's Ngurah Rai International Airport, the head of air traffic services Tri Basuki says staff do double shifts because he has less than 50 percent of the people needed to operate radar, surveillance and navigation systems. For air traffic control it is even worse. There are only 43 people, or about a third of a government requirement for 115, to guide the airport's average of 330 landing aircraft a day. Basuki said some of the controllers at Bali are suffering from cumulative fatigue. "When the controller is fatigued, it's high risk, very high risk," he said. http://www.voanews.com/content/se-asia-resort-airports-safety-chance-wind- shear/1652842.html Back to Top PRISM Analysis of ARGUS PROS Performed Audits Indicates Deficiencies in Flight Departments Risk Assessment. ARGUS PROS, and its sister company, PRISM, released the 2012 edition of the Safety Management System (SMS) Audit Results. Each year, ARGUS PROS audits a significant number of private and commercial flight operations, varying in size, regulatory oversight, and operational complexity. All aspects of the flight operation are reviewed during these audits and the PRISM team then reviews analyzes and compiles these audit findings into a comprehensive report. The main objective of Annual SMS Audit Results Report is to highlight the recurring problem areas found in SMS implementation and execution. Although the report portrays a number of positive trends, the value of this analysis is its ability to allow operators around the world to evaluate their own safety programs, identify where gabs exist, and seek to reduce risk exposure. "In order for an organization to be successful with SMS, they must continuously recognize where gaps exist and seek to improve upon processes to reduce risk exposure," said Chris Young, PRISM Vice President Helicopter Aviation Services. "The SMS Audit Results report can help an all aviation organizations with identifying their own needs by learning about the experiences of others. This type of knowledge sharing is critical to the aviation community and will help all operators to perform better." The majority of the 2012 audit findings point to deficiencies in Risk Assessment and General Operating Manuals (GOM). Risk Assessments help identify, evaluate, mitigate, and validate current risks in the operation. They can also determine gaps in policy and procedures when a change is made, such as adding a new aircraft to the operation. This is known as "change management" and is a process needing improvement in many operations according to audit results. A GOM defines the policies, procedures, and organizational structures to accomplish company goals. It must be accurate, up-to-date, and consistent with other manuals in order to prevent miscommunication and confusion. The complete SMS Audit Results Report can be downloaded at: http://www.argus.aero/FreeData/PRISM_SMS_Audit_Results_2012.aspx Curt Lewis