Flight Safety Information March 25 2014 - No. 062 In This Issue Novel Analysis Helped Narrow Malaysian Jet Search Australia Suspends Search for Jet Debris, Citing Bad Weather Let's license drone pilots, says the man who beat the FAA Israel air safety concerns: 8 passenger jets deviated from flight level in last 2 months PRISM SMS Malaysia Airlines Has Been Missing Profits for Years China aircraft company to buy Russia's SSJ-100 planes for $3,5 billion Airbus inks $3.8 billion deal with Singapore's Tigerair for 37 A320neo aircraft FAA Names New Air Traffic Organization COO Novel Analysis Helped Narrow Malaysian Jet Search HONG KONG March 25, 2014 (AP) - Investigators are closer to solving an international aviation mystery thanks to a British communications satellite and classroom physics. A masterful analysis of a handful of faint signals sent from Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 to an Inmarsat satellite led officials to conclude that the Boeing 777 crashed in a remote part of the southern Indian Ocean. More precise information about the plane's position when it sent the last signals is helping authorities refine the search being undertaken by planes and ships in seas 2,500 kilometers (1,550 miles) southwest of Perth, Australia. Investigators had precious little information to examine otherwise because the transponder, identifying the jet to air traffic controllers, was deactivated about the same time the jet veered off course from its original destination, Beijing, early March 8. THE PINGS Even with other communications shut down, the plane sent an automatic signal - a "ping" or a "handshake" - every hour to an Inmarsat satellite. The pings did not show the jet's location, speed or heading, but an initial analysis showed the last ping came from a position along one of two vast arcs north and south from the Malaysian Peninsula. For its more detailed analysis, Inmarsat studied the pings sent from Flight 370 on the ground at Kuala Lumpur airport and early in its flight. It considered aircraft performance, satellite location and other known factors to calculate the possible positions, direction of travel and speed of the plane. It then compared its predictions to six other Boeing 777 aircraft that flew the same day, and found good agreement, according to Malaysian Defense Minister Hishammuddin Hussein. Inmarsat did not respond to repeated requests for comment from The Associated Press. DOPPLER EFFECT Think of a horn being honked in a passing car. To an observer, the sound is high pitched as the car approaches and is lower after the car passes. That's because on approach, each successive sound wave is sent from a slightly closer position to the observer. The sound waves get compressed, resulting in a higher frequency. The opposite happens as the car moves away. It's called the Doppler effect for Austrian physicist Christian Doppler, who first put forward the theory in 1842. The same effect applies to "pings" from the plane to the satellite orbiting in a fixed position, which would arrive at a higher frequency if the plane was moving toward the satellite and decrease in frequency when moving away. "By analyzing that you can determine speed and direction," said Joseph Bermudez Jr., chief analytics officer and co-founder of AllSource Analysis, a commercial satellite intelligence firm. And by determining the area from which the last signal was sent, then estimating fuel left, it "could give you an approximate area of where the aircraft impacted." MORE ANALYSIS Inmarsat sent its data to investigators days after the plane went missing. But it continued to run its own analysis to see if it could wring out any more clues. The company's engineers were dealing with a "totally new area," Inmarsat's McLaughlin told the BBC. "This really was a bit of a shot in the dark." However, the latest information could only go so far in pinpointing the jet's location. "We can't help you with any closer data," he said. Satellite specialists were impressed by Inmarsat's analysis. "They exploited a digital trail that was never intended for that use. It was just a shadow that somebody spotted and made use of," said David Cyganski, dean of engineering at Worcester Polytechnic Institute. Gregory D. Durgin, a professor who teaches satellite communications at the Georgia Institute of Technology, said that because Inmarsat was using a different kind of satellite in a novel way, he expects it would locate the last ping from the Malaysia Airlines lane within "around 100 miles of precision." THE COMPANY Inmarsat Plc started out in 1979 as an intergovernmental organization with the aim of helping ships communicate while at sea. It became a private company in 1999 and listed its shares in London in 2005. Customers now include governments, airlines, broadcast media, oil and gas companies, aid agencies as well as merchant shipping. They use handheld satellite phones, laptop size Internet devices and antennas linked to the company's 10 satellites to communicate. http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/analysis-helped-narrow-malaysian-jet-search- 23047190?page=2 Back to Top Australia Suspends Search for Jet Debris, Citing Bad Weather PEARCE AIR FORCE BASE, Australia - The Australian government suspended search operations Tuesday for the wreckage of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, citing "horrendous" weather conditions in the southern Indian Ocean, the remote and treacherous seas where authorities believe the plane crashed. David Johnston, Australia's defense minister, described the search as taking place in "probably one of the most remote parts of the planet" and one that "has shipwrecked many sailors." He said an Australian vessel, which on Monday was scouring for possible debris spotted by an aircraft, was forced to deploy 120 kilometers to the south due to the weather conditions. An Australian search team flew over a boat looking for debris in the Indian Ocean on Saturday.Jet's Disappearance Puzzles a World Under Constant Electronic WatchMARCH 22, 2014 Mr. Johnston, speaking to reporters at Pearce Air Force Base, north of the western Australian city of Perth, took pains to say that despite several reports of possible debris from the plane having being spotted in the southern Indian Ocean, none had thus far been recovered, suggesting that any wreckage could be in an altogether different area. Describing a multinational search effort that included ships and aircraft from nations including China, Australia, South Korea, Japan, the United States, and New Zealand, he called it "one of the largest efforts you'll ever see" in terms of maritime surveillance. The vice chief of Australia's Defense Force, Air Marshal Mark Binskin, underlined the vastness of the search area. "We are not searching for a needle in a haystack - we are still trying to define where the haystack is," he told reporters at the air base. In Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, officials with Malaysia Airlines stressed that despite the lack of details about the plane's fate, the relatives of the passengers and crew must accept that their loved ones had almost certainly died. Malaysia's prime minister, Najib Razak, announced Monday that new data left no doubt that the plane had gone down in the ocean. "We must accept the painful reality that the aircraft is now lost, and that none of the passengers or crew on board survived," said Mohamed Nor Yusof, the chairman of Malaysia Airlines. He stressed that the airline's primary responsibility now was caring for the grieving families. Reconstructing the Path He also said, "The investigation still underway may yet prove to be even longer and complex than it has been since March 8th." The Australian government said the search for the plane would resume on Wednesday, with 12 aircraft taking part. On Tuesday morning, relatives and friends of many of the 153 Chinese passengers on Flight 370 gathered outside the Malaysian Embassy in Beijing to demand that Malaysian officials tell them the truth about the fate of the flight. They went there despite assurances from the police that the Malaysian ambassador would come to their hotel to talk to them, an apparent effort to dissuade them from going to the embassy, according to people on the scene. The group shoved past police officers as they left their hotel, arriving by foot at the embassy about 40 minutes later. The street was crowded with journalists, police officers and irate people trying to get past police roadblocks to reach some of the other embassies on the block, which included the American, Israeli and French embassies. A line of paramilitary police officers then blocked the road and prevented journalists from following the marchers. As part of an ambitious multinational effort to find any debris from the plane, the United States military said Monday it was sending an unmanned submersible craft capable of searching for wreckage using sonar systems. Known as the Bluefin-21 autonomous underwater vehicle, it was sent by air from New York and was expected to arrive in Perth on Tuesday. Rear Admiral John Kirby, a Pentagon spokesman, told reporters that the submersible, which is shaped like a torpedo, would only be useful once the location of the wreckage is known. "It's being sent there to be ready should there be a need," he said. "And right now, there's no need. We do not have a debris field." The U.S. Navy has also dispatched a pinger locater, which is designed to be towed behind a vessel and listens for the signals emitted by the aircraft's voice and data recorders, known as black boxes. The pinger locater, which will be towed behind an Australian commercial vessel, was used in the search for Air France Flight 447, which crashed into the Atlantic Ocean in 2009. The Australian government also sent the amphibious craft ADV Ocean Shield to join in the search effort. Able to operate in sub-Antartic weather conditions, it is equipped with a helipad and sonar. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/26/world/asia/malaysia-flight-370.html?_r=0 Back to Top Let's license drone pilots, says the man who beat the FAA Quadcopter drone missing a propeller photo Raphael Pirker is a leading advocate for consumer drones - he buzzed the Statue of Liberty, and recently won a court fight against the FAA. He also has some ideas for how to regulate drones. There's no doubt that consumer drones have arrived above our cities: witness this beautiful flight through San Francisco or read about one man's aerial view of the recent Harlem disaster. The question is what to do about them. For now, the rules for drone regulation are totally unclear after a judge threw out a $10,000 fine that the FAA had imposed on photographer Raphael Pirker. Fortunately, Pirker himself has some helpful advice for how governments should regulate unmanned flight. Pirker, an Austrian native who gained attention when his drone buzzed the Statue of Liberty, shared his thoughts in a Wall Street Journal profile this weekend. The entire piece is worth a read (paywall), but the gist of it is that Pirker thinks drone pilots should be certified, and that governments should impose weight and other restrictions: "'I'm against outright bans,' he says, but weight restrictions and even no-go zones are different. 'The amount of damage you can do to a person or to a property grows exponentially with weight,' he notes, so it makes sense to distinguish between five-pound and 50-pound drones - something the FAA's blanket ban didn't do. ... Mr. Pirker says he wouldn't object if a drone operator had to seek permission before, say, flying through a tunnel... 'Even some sort of certification of the pilots is what I would expect,' he adds, 'because most of the really dangerous situations arise from people not really knowing what they're doing.' He cites the man who recently launched a toy-grade radio-controlled plane from his apartment balcony near Manhattan's Penn Station, apparently not realizing that signal interference would almost certainly make the drone crash." Pirker also makes clear that it would be silly to require the same set of certifications for drone and airplane pilots, and he calls out France and Australia as countries that have so far done a smart job in regulating drones. For the U.S., Pirker's prescriptions make sense. Until the judge shot it down, the FAA's heavy-handed approach to commercial drones appeared to threaten the potential of a promising new technology. On the other hand, it's fair to say some regulation is needed: ordinary city-dwellers are right to worry about unmanned planes falling from the sky and, absent any rules, it may only be a matter of time until someone shoots one down. http://gigaom.com/2014/03/24/lets-license-drone-pilots-says-the-man-who-beat-the-faa/ Back to Top Israel air safety concerns: 8 passenger jets deviated from flight level in last 2 months Chief air accident inspector reports incident only three weeks after the fact. Ben-Gurion Airport Planes waiting to take off from Ben-Gurion International Airport. Eight flight safety incidents have occurred near Ben-Gurion International Airport over the last two months, all caused by the same problem: passenger planes deviating from their approved altitude and approach path to the airport. The most recent incident took place on March 4, but the Transportation Ministry's chief air accident inspector, Yitzhak Raz, reported it only this week. The incident involved a passenger plane operated by EasyJet that was arriving from Rome. It was assigned an approach path by the airport, but as it neared, an air traffic controller noticed that the plane was flying too low, at only 4,500 feet instead of 5,000 feet. The controller queried the pilot about the approach, and the pilot's response revealed that he was taking a path different than the one he had been assigned. Also, he was flying on instruments rather than using a visual approach. In any case, the controller let him continue using the approach he had started. Over the weekend, Raz reported on two other incidents in which passenger planes flew too low during their approach to Ben-Gurion. Aside from those two, he said there had been five similar incidents since February 4, including four that occurred in the space of just two days. The February 4 incident involved an Alitalia passenger plane, a Boeing 777. This was the crew's first flight to Ben-Gurion, and the pilots did not obey the control tower's landing instructions. Instead of flying at 4,500 feet, they crossed the coastline at a height of only 4,200 feet. In addition, they deviated to the southeast from their assigned approach path. The next incident occurred on February 19, when an Aeroflot passenger plane, an Airbus A-321, was approaching. As in the February 4 case, the plane crossed the coastline at only 4,200 feet, some 300 feet lower than the control tower's instructions. The crews of both planes were questioned by the Israel Airports Authority's safety inspectors upon landing, and their answers were passed on to Raz, along with other relevant data such as radar and audio tapes from the planes. In his report, Raz wrote that he decided to investigate these accidents "not because of the severity of any one incident, but out of an understanding of the safety potential of the accumulation of these incidents, in light of the limitations of the solution that is supposed to prevent their occurrence, insofar as is possible, with an emphasis on the approach procedures at Ben-Gurion." http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/.premium-1.581780 Back to Top Back to Top Malaysia Airlines Has Been Missing Profits for Years Long before one of its Boeing (BA) jumbo jets vanished into the tropical darkness, Malaysia Airlines was struggling to find its financial footing. The carrier has lost money for more than three years, beset by high costs, a proliferation of unprofitable new flying in its network, and two low-cost rivals at its home airport in Kuala Lumpur. In 2013, Malaysia Airlines was one of the world's few unprofitable carriers, returning a negative 4 percent operating margin-worse than every airline in the world save two in India, according to income data compiled by Airline Weekly, an industry journal. Globally, airlines averaged a 5 percent margin in 2013, and U.S. carriers returned 8 percent. Malaysia Airlines has lost more than $1.2 billion over the past three years; this year is likely to produce more red ink. The financial trouble has been exacerbated by the carrier's torrid expansion. Seeking to guard its market share from upstarts and capture premium traffic in the region, the airline added 21 new planes last year and boosted its system capacity by 19 percent. It also acquired the massive Airbus A380 superjumbo, a decision analysts criticized as a foolish waste of money given the jet's size and the company's inability to turn a profit with its current capacity. To reduce costs, the airline has sporadically battled its unions and dropped several long-haul routes, including its final U.S. flight, which is ending next month. "They've done a lot, but in the end they're growing more quickly than almost any airline in the world without any evidence that there's the demand to support it," says Seth Kaplan, an Airline Weekly analyst. The carrier is also contending with AirAsia (AIRA:MK), one of Asia's largest low-cost airlines, and an upstart that began flying a year ago called Malindo Air, a joint venture between Malaysian and Indonesian investors. Both enjoy an immense cost advantage over their larger rival and have introduced low fares into the regional market that have further hurt the 67-year-old incumbent. The troubled company is also contending with a public relations furor in China, home to most of the 229 passengers on the missing flight to Beijing. Many in China consider the Malaysian response to the investigation inadequate, opaque, and laggardly. Although China accounts for only 7 percent of the carrier's capacity, compared with 24 percent for Europe, the enormous growth in Chinese tourism could spell trouble for the Malaysian carrier if Chinese travelers choose other airlines for their international trips. The majority of parent company Malaysian Airline Systems (MAS:MK) is owned by the government's sovereign wealth fund, Khazanah Nasional. Last month the Business Times of Singapore urged Khazanah to put the airline into bankruptcy court to rectify its enormous cost burdens: a bloated headcount and "lopsided procurement contracts in a range of services from maintenance to catering." The newspaper suggested Khazanah could follow the path of Japan Airlines (9201:JP), which successfully restructured in bankruptcy four years ago. "Overstaffing, ridiculous union demands, and outlandishly skewed procurement contracts are the financial equivalent of having to fight with one hand tied behind one's back." All the red ink, however, has not dented the quality of Malaysia Airlines' service. It remains one of only seven carriers given the highest rating by the Skytrax airline ranking firm, along with such companies as Singapore Airlines (SIA:SP), All Nippon Airways, and Cathay Pacific (293:HK). http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-03-24/malaysia-airlines-was-in-trouble-long-before-flight- 370 Back to Top China aircraft company to buy Russia's SSJ-100 planes for $3,5 billion Russian company will provide assistance to Chinese side in setting up an assembly plant in Zhengzhou BEIJING, March 25. /ITAR-TASS/. China's private O-bay Aircraft Company, based in the Henan province, intends to buy 100 Russia Sukhoi Superjet-100 (SSJ-100) planes from Sukhoi company to the total worth of 3.5 billion US dollars, the Beijing-based China Daily reported, noting that the corresponding agreement had been signed on Saturday. The report says that the Russian company will provide assistance to the Chinese side in setting up an assembly plant in Zhengzhou (administrative centre of Henan). Several other Chinese companies have also displayed an interest in this project. The newspaper reports that Russia's Sukhoi company is well known in China thanks to its military planes. The Sukhoi civilian assembly line is to be put into operation in 2016 and reach full capacity in 2018. The project is yet to be approved by the Chinese State Council, according to China Daily. It notes that the Russian plane will become direct competitor to the regional ARJ-21 plane that is being created by China's aircraft building corporation. It is not clear whether the State government will approve it because the city does not have the necessary industrial foundation and professional human resources, despite the local government being passionate about the aviation industry, the newspaper notes. If the SSJ-100 is built in China, the Chinese State- owned airplane manufacturer will have a direct rival: Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China Ltd is working on the ARJ-21, a regional aircraft with 70 to 90 seats. http://en.itar-tass.com/economy/725188 Back to Top Airbus inks $3.8 billion deal with Singapore's Tigerair for 37 A320neo aircraft First A320neo fuselage sections joined-up in the A320 Final Assembly Line in Toulouse, France. (Courtesy Airbus Group Inc.) Singapore's Tiger Airways Holdings Ltd has placed an order for 37 Airbus A320neo aircraft, with the option to purchase an additional 13 aircraft. The base deal is valued at about $3.8 billion at list prices, and the budget carrier expects to take delivery of the planes between 2018 and 2025. "We are delighted to conclude this agreement, which will allow us to introduce the latest single-aisle aircraft into our fleet," Koay Peng Yen, Tigerair's Group chief executive officer, said in a prepared statement. "This agreement also underscores Tigerair's commitment to continue building on our leadership position in the budget travel sector at a measured pace." Airbus is currently building its first A320 assembly line on U.S. soil at Mobile Aeroplex, expected to figure prominently in the company's ability to efficiently fill the mounting backlog for the popular single-aisle aircraft. The $600 million facility is slated to come online in 2015, deliver its first Mobile-assembled aircraft the following year and employ about 1,000 people when it reaches full annual production of 40 to 50 aircraft by 2018. Established in 2004, Tigerair currently operates an all-Airbus fleet of 48 A320 family aircraft via three separate airlines: Tigerair Singapore, Tigerair Mandala (Indonesia) and Tigerair Australia. "This order once again highlights the unbeatable operating economics offered by our single-aisle product line for airlines from both the low-cost and full-service markets," said John Leahy, Airbus' chief operating officer for customers, said in a prepared statement. http://www.al.com/business/index.ssf/2014/03/airbus_inks_38_billion_deal_wi.html Back to Top FAA Names New Air Traffic Organization COO FAA Air Traffic Organization COO Teri Bristol The FAA named Teri Bristol, a 21-year veteran of the agency, as Air Traffic Organization chief operating officer. The Federal Aviation Administration named agency veteran Teri Bristol as the new chief operating officer of its Air Traffic Organization (ATO), which is responsible for managing the U.S. ATC system. Administrator Michael Huerta announced the appointment in an email to employees on March 21. Bristol was most recently deputy COO and had served in an acting capacity since former COO David Grizzle left in December. The FAA appointed Grizzle to the post in July 2011, following the resignation of Henry "Hank" Krakowski over a series of incidents involving controllers sleeping on duty. The ATO is structured as a performance-based organization within the FAA; it manages nearly 80 percent of the agency's $9.6 billion operations budget and more than 32,000 employees, half of them controllers. In 21 years with the FAA, Bristol has held a number of executive positions, including vice president for technical operation services, vice president of the ATO service center, director of terminal mission support, director for terminal air traffic operations in the western service area and director of terminal program operations. The National Air Traffic Controllers Association (Natca) welcomed the appointment. "The collaborative relationship developed and strengthened by Natca and the FAA over the past four years has become one of the strongest and most successful examples of labor-management partnerships," the controllers union said. "Bristol's work with Natca as ATO deputy COO has contributed largely to the success of this collaborative relationship as well as to the progress of NextGen modernization efforts." The Professional Aviation Safety Specialists AFL-CIO (Pass), which represents FAA system specialists, safety inspectors and other employees, issued a similar congratulatory statement. "Pass recognizes the importance of appointing Teri Bristol as the next COO of the Air Traffic Organization. We have worked with Ms. Bristol for years and appreciate her professionalism, expertise and focus on the employees. When she served as Technical Operations vice president, Ms. Bristol was pivotal in improving the relationship between labor and management," said Pass national president Mike Perrone. http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/2014-03-24/faa-names-new-air-traffic-organization-coo Back to Top Upcoming Events: WATS 2014 April 1-3, 2014 Orlando, FL http://halldale.com/wats#.UymQ_vldWSo North Texas Business Aviation Safety Show-Down is set for April 3rd http://www.aviationpros.com/press_release/11327425/north-texas-business-aviation-safety-show-down- is-set-for-april-3rd Middle East Air Cargo and Logistics Exhibition & Conference 2014 April 9-10, 2014 Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC) http://cargomiddleeast.com Airport Show Dubai May 11-13, 2014 Dubai International Convention and Exhibition Centre (DICEC) www.theairportshow.com/portal/home.aspx National Safety Council Aviation Safety Committee Annual Conference Savanah, GA - May 14-15, 2014 Contact: tammy.washington@nsc.org http://cwp.marriott.com/savdt/artexmeeting/ Asia Pacific Aviation Safety Seminar 21-22 May 2014, Bangkok, Thailand http://bit.ly/APASS2014 Curt Lewis