Flight Safety Information January 7, 2015 - No. 005 In This Issue AirAsia jet tail found underwater, black box may be close by Row Over Budget Airlines Erupts in Indonesia After AirAsia Disaster TSB of Canada To Launch Safety Review of Air Taxis Animals Were Sacrificed To Fix This Broken Jet PRISM TO HELP PREPARE FOR E-IOSA United Airlines Launches In-flight Wi-Fi on Regional Jet Service ERAU NextGen 101 Seminar - Washington, D.C. Upcoming Events AirAsia jet tail found underwater, black box may be close by (Reuters) - The tail of a crashed AirAsia jet has been found upturned on the sea bed about 30 km (20 miles) from the plane's last known location, Indonesia's search and rescue agency said on Wednesday, indicating the crucial black box recorders may be nearby. Flight QZ8501 vanished from radar screens over the northern Java Sea on Dec. 28, less than half-way into a two-hour flight from Indonesia's second-biggest city of Surabaya to Singapore. There were no survivors among the 162 people on board. "We've found the tail that has been our main target," Fransiskus Bambang Soelistyo, head of the search and rescue agency, told a news conference in Jakarta. The tail was identified by divers after it was spotted by an underwater machine using a sonar scan, Soelistyo said. He displayed underwater photographs showing partial lettering on the sunken object compared with a picture of an intact Airbus A320-200 in AirAsia livery. "I can confirm that what we found was the tail part from the pictures," he said, adding that the team "now is still desperately trying to locate the black box". Indonesia's Minister for Maritime Affairs, Indroyono Soesilo, told another news conference: "With the finding of the tail, six SAR (search and rescue) ships are already at the location to search within a radius of two nautical miles." Forty bodies and debris from the plane have been plucked from the surface of the waters off Borneo, but strong winds and high waves have been hampering divers' efforts to reach larger pieces of suspected wreckage detected by sonar on the sea floor. German insurer Allianz said it had begun making initial payments to the families of crash victims, although it declined to specify the amount. "These payments are in no way final settlements," said a spokesman for Allianz, which is the lead reinsurer for the consortium of insurers covering claims in the case. "We will agree further compensation in due course in consultation with all involved parties." Initial insurance payments to cover immediate financial hardship in similar cases have run at around $25,000 for the next of kin of each passenger, according to industry sources. FINDING THE TAIL WAS PRIORITY Locating the tail of the plane has been a priority because the cockpit voice and flight data recorders that can provide vital clues on why it crashed are located in the rear section of the Airbus. "I am led to believe the tail section has been found," AirAsia boss Tony Fernandes tweeted minutes after the announcement. "If (it is the) right part of tail section, then the black box should be there ... We need to find all parts soon so we can find all our guests to ease the pain of our families. That still is our priority." In Pangkalan Bun, the southern Borneo town closest to the crash site, search and rescue agency coordinator Supriyadi told reporters the bad weather that has dogged the operation for 10 days had abated. But, as ships with acoustic "pinger locators" designed to pick up signals from the black box converged on the scene of the find, he cautioned the tail section of the aircraft might not be fully intact. "The location of the tail is relatively far from the point of last contact, about 30 km (20 miles)," he said. "The black box is located behind the door, to the right of the tail. There is a possibility that the tail and the back of the plane are broken up." Until investigators can examine the black box recorders the cause of the crash remains a mystery, but the area where the plane was lost is known for intense seasonal storms. BMKG, Indonesia's meteorological agency, has said bad weather may have caused ice to form on the aircraft's engines. Indonesia AirAsia, 49 percent owned by Fernandes's Malaysia-based AirAsia budget group, has come under pressure from the authorities in Jakarta since the crash. The transport ministry has suspended the carrier's Surabaya-Singapore license, saying it only had permission to fly the route on Mondays, Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays. Flight QZ8501 took off on a Sunday, though the ministry said this had no bearing on the accident. Fernandes however maintained that AirAsia had the required permission. "What happened was purely an administrative error," he said in an e-mail. "The process has become clear now." AirAsia has said it is cooperating fully with the ministry's investigations. That investigation would be completed by Friday evening, the transport ministry said on Wednesday. Indonesia is one of the world's fastest growing aviation markets and its carriers, such as Lion Air and Garuda Indonesia, are among the top customers for plane makers Airbus and Boeing. But its safety record is patchy. The European Commission banned all Indonesia-based airlines from flying to the European Union in 2007 following a series of accidents. Exemptions to that ban have since been granted to some carriers, including Garuda and AirAsia. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/07/us-indonesia-airplane-idUSKBN0KG09L20150107 Back to Top Row Over Budget Airlines Erupts in Indonesia After AirAsia Disaster AirAsia aircraft on the strip at Soekarno-Hatta International Airport near Jakarta on Dec. 29, 2014 Anadolu Agency-2014 Anadolu Agency Proposed restrictions on ultra-low fares have enraged Indonesian travelers Search and rescue teams and flight crew prepare their gear on board an Indonesian Air Force Super Puma helicopter before a search mission for debris and bodies from AirAsia flight QZ8501at Iskandar Air Force Base, in Pangkalan Bun A political row between Indonesia's Transport Ministry, low-cost air carriers and the flying public is threatening to overshadow the ongoing salvage operation for AirAsia Flight QZ 8501, which crashed on Dec. 28 soon after leaving the Indonesian city of Surabaya for Singapore. Indonesian news portal Detik reported Wednesday that bargain tickets offered by low-cost carriers - some of which go for as little as $4 - were to be banned. "This is so that the airline has enough financial room to raise the safety standard," said Transport Ministry official Hadi M. Djuraid. "We have no problem if they lower the service standard ... but lowering the safety standard isn't allowed." AirAsia didn't immediately respond for TIME's request for comment on the policy shift. However, Indonesian social-media users were scornful because the nation's 250 million people increasingly rely on air travel to hop around the world's largest archipelago, as well as travel abroad for leisure and work. Some 700,000 Indonesian migrant workers are dispersed around Asia, chiefly in Malaysia and Saudi Arabia, with remittances sent to family back home reaching $6.6 billion in 2009. Any restrictions would also not be good for airlines such as AirAsia, already reeling from allegations by Indonesian officials that Flight QZ 8501 was only cleared to operate a few days each week, but crucially not on the Sunday when it crashed. AirAsia CEO Tony Fernandes vehemently denied this was the case in a statement on Wednesday, describing the mix-up as "purely an administrative error." "We have the right to fly Surabaya-Singapore. We had flown that schedule and had rights for seven days a week," he stated, according to the Straits Times. "We have secured both slots as well as approval from both Indonesia and Singapore." Nevertheless, Indonesian authorities have suspended five more key AirAsia domestic flight routes from Surabaya pending an investigation. The Surabaya-Singapore route had already been halted. Indonesian authorities also criticized AirAsia Captain Iriyanto, who piloted QZ 8501, for apparently not picking up the air-traffic control's weather-briefing document before his flight, as they claimed regulations require. However, Fernandes defended his staff in a statement issued to CNN Wednesday, saying that the same meteorological data is disseminated electronically to all flight crew by AirAsia, whose practices mirror those of many other airlines. Commercial airline pilots also rallied to Iriyanto's defense. "Don't make things up and say pilots are at fault if they don't undergo briefing. It is not part of the required procedures [before taking off]," senior pilot Sardjono Jhony Tjitrokusumo said in a written statement, the Jakarta Globe reported. "Don't suddenly become an aviation expert, as if you know everything about the industry. Please be wise." http://time.com/3657204/airasia-qz8501-missing-plane-budget-airlines/ Back to Top TSB of Canada To Launch Safety Review of Air Taxis The Transportation Safety Board of Canada (TSB) will begin an investigation this year into the safety of that country's approximately 600 air-taxi operators to identify any systematic issues contributing to what the TSB considers that segment's poor safety record. Air-taxi operations fall under Canadian Aviation Regulations (CARs) 703 and include single- and multi- engine aircraft that have an mtow of 19,000 pounds or less and carry up to nine passenger seats. The TSB said 57 percent of all commercial aviation accidents in Canada involve air-taxi operators and that the segment accounts for 63 percent of all commercial aviation fatalities. The board will be looking at pilot qualifications, training and decision-making skills, as well as inadequate risk analysis of operations, deviations from standard operating procedures and deficiencies in operational control, especially in self-dispatch operations. http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/business-aviation/2015-01-06/tsb-canada-launch-safety-review- air-taxis Back to Top Animals Were Sacrificed To Fix This Broken Jet In 2007, Nepal Airlines sacrificed a pair of goats to help solve some of its aircraft maintenance issues. According to the BBC, the airline confirmed that the animals were slaughtered at Kathmandu's international airport in front of the airline's malfunctioning Boeing 757-200. According to the news organization, the 757 - one of two in the airline's fleet - had been suffering from a series of electrical malfunctions in the time leading up to the sacrifice. In addition to making physical repairs, the airline also decided to appease Akash Bhairab, the Hindu god of sky protection. "The snag in the plane has now been fixed and the aircraft has resumed its flights," a senior airline official told Reuters. Following the ceremony, the aircraft safely completed a flight to Hong Kong. Nepal Airlines is the government-owned national carrier for the small Himalayan country. Flying is the most effective way to get in or out of the mountainous country. Unfortunately, the country's aviation safety record is far from stellar. In fact, Nepal Airlines has been rated as one of the least safe airlines in the world by AirlineRatings.com. Last month, the European Union banned Nepal Airlines planes from entering its airspace. "The current safety situation in Nepal does not leave us any other choice than to put all of its carriers on the EU air-safety list," European transport commissioner Siim Kallas said in a statement. "We do hope that this ban will help the aviation authorities to improve aviation safety." http://www.businessinsider.com/nepal-airlines-sacrificed-a-pair-of-goats-it-fix-its-broken-jet-2015- 1#ixzz3O953DbHz Back to Top Back to Top Composites in commercial aircraft engines, 2014-2023 The drive to boost aircraft operating efficiency continues to fuel adoption of polymer matrix composites in jet engines. Aircraft are creatures of economics. Commercial transport planes whisk passengers and cargo around the world in hours, but only if they generate direct profit for the airlines that fly them. Business jets profit commercial enterprises, albeit more indirectly, by doing the same for growth-conscious corporate executives. Not subject to profit/loss evaluations, military aircraft nonetheless transport troops and equipment and provide fast, far-reaching armed defensive capabilities on the strength of profits hard won by those who pay taxes, tariffs and duties to the governments that field them. Although they vary dramatically in capacity and capability, these flying machines have in common that operating them poses an increasing - and potentially unsustainable - expense to their owners. Today, no single aspect of aircraft operating cost looms as large as - or is more easily addressed than - fuel consumption. Since 1990, the cost of jet fuel has risen at an average annual rate of 7.7%. As a result, it's become the dominant cost center, particularly for commercial air carriers. At the turn of the millennium, says the International Air Transport Assn. (IATA, Montreal, QC, Canada), fuel accounted for 13-15% of direct operating cost. By 2006, it had soared to nearly 30%. At present, fuel represents 33- 40% of global airline expenses and, even at somewhat moderated cost inflation, could soon climb to 50% or more. In response to the concerns of commercial carriers, aircraft OEMs have devoted decades of research to reducing the cost of aircraft operation and ownership. These efforts have resulted cumulatively in some significant improvements. Since 1980, the average fuel burn per aircraft seat-km has been reduced by the following percentages: * Regional turboprops 22% * Regional jets 35% * Single-aisle jets 35% * Twin-aisle jets 27% * Jumbo jets 9% Continuing advances in aircraft and engine design are expected to make the newest versions of some of the most successful aircraft designs - commercial single-aisle transports (110-210 passengers) - nearly 50% more efficient than comparable aircraft introduced in the 1980s. Examples include the upcoming Airbus A320neo, the Boeing 737 MAX and the Bombardier CSeries. On the strength of additional savings strategies, IATA reports that between 1990 and 2012, its airline members have been able to improve their overall efficiency by 46% - significantly more than the per- aircraft efficiencies noted above. Some of the additional gains come from enhanced operational practices. The replacement of older aircraft in airline fleets with newer models with improved aerodynamics and more efficient engines has been the greatest aid to airline efforts to avoid billions of dollars in fleet fuel costs. This is one reason that commercial transport OEMs have been able to continue to increase production and sales over the past several years, despite trying economic conditions. Efficiency drives design The jet engines market spans a wide range of products that generate from 2700 N-m to 163,000 N-m of thrust. Generally speaking, those covered in this outlook are in the sub-classification of turbofans. Although there are many variations, turbofan engines feature a large fan section mounted on the front of a core turbine, with an additional turbine in the rear, all connected by a driveshaft. The turbofan generates thrust from two sources, the fan segment and the core turbine. Some of the incoming air captured at the engine inlet is fed into the core turbine's low- and high-pressure compressor stages and on into the combustion chamber where the compressed air and fuel are mixed and ignited. As the resulting high-temperature gas expands, it turns the rear-mounted high- and low-pressure turbines that drive the front fan and compressor and then provides propulsive force as it exits the exhaust jet. The majority of a turbofan's thrust, however, is the result of incoming air that is diverted around the compressor and turbine. The difference in the volume of air that bypasses the compressor vs. the air delivered to it is expressed as the "bypass ratio." Bypass thrust does not require direct fuel burn. In the quest to improve operating costs, therefore, engine manufacturers have steadily increased bypass ratios, particularly in the engine families that support large transport aircraft. In general, the greater the bypass ratio, the better the fuel efficiency, especially at subsonic speeds. Larger bypass ratios, however, result in larger fan sections and, in turn, heavier turbofans. The GE Aviation (Cincinnati, OH, US) CF6 engine family, for example, entered service in 1973 with a bypass ratio of 5:1. The CF6's fan section accounts for 20% of total engine weight (~4,090 kg). GE's new GEnx turbofan, which produces about the same amount of thrust, has a bypass ratio of 10:1. Its fan accounts for 30% of the engine's 5,807-kg weight. Each kilogram added to the fan section necessitates 2.25 kg of extra support structure in the engine and the aircraft wing. Design drives composites To mitigate weight increases, aeroengine manufacturers have replaced metal with composites (see Fig. 4). Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, the application of composites in aircraft engines was relatively limited. More than half of the total composite volume was directly associated with nacelle components, such as thrust reversers, acoustic liners, cascades, blocker doors, radial drive fairings and cowlings. On some models, aramid fibers (often in the form of dry-fiber belts) were used to reinforce aluminum fan cases. Composite nose cones, a variety of air ducts and engine air-oil seals were fairly common as well. When it entered service in 1995, GE's GE90 engine applied many more advanced materials and resin transfer molding (RTM) processing to introduce a number of new composite components - most notably, large fan blades made from hundreds of plies of intermediate-modulus carbon fiber prepreg. Since then, composite blades, fan containment cases, bypass ducts, stator vanes and a host of less glamorous detail components and brackets have become common not only in commercial jets but also in business and military aircraft. Composites flyaway outlook Based on figures compiled by Composites Forecasts and Consulting (Mesa, AZ, US) in support of a recent production forecast for jets, turboprops and piston-powered planes during 2014-2023, we estimate that 67,710 turbofan-type jet engines will be needed to support expected global aircraft production (see Fig. 6). Nearly 47% of these engines will be destined for long-haul commercial transports. Business jets will consume the next largest number, accounting for about 37% of the market. Regional (short-haul) jets will make up about 5% of these deliveries. Military jets, including fighters and jet-powered unmanned aircraft, will require 11% - about 7,200 turbofans (plus some on-ground spares). Annual engine production has grown steadily since 2005 - engine deliveries totaled more than 5,800 units during 2014 - and is expected to peak in the 2018-2019 timeframe. Engines and surrounding nacelles were expected to consume more than 16,320 MT of finished components, including those made of metals, composites and other materials, during 2013 alone. Of that total, composites accounted for an estimated 1,542 MT of flyaway weight - a significant increase over the roughly 454 MT delivered in 2005. Demand for composite aeroengine components will amount to nearly 1,680 MT in 2014, and we conservatively project growth to more than 2,765 MT per year by 2023 - based on known applications. Composites now represent about 9.5% of total engine flyaway weight. As the market matures during the years to come, this figure is expected to reach about 15%. And in the next 10 years, our study indicates that 23,587 MT of polymer composite structures will be manufactured in support of aircraft engine programs. This amounts to a US$16.2 billion market. Nearly 85% of this engine-bound tonnage is destined for long-haul commercial aircraft. Regional jet programs are expected to account for about 3%. Business jets will consume another 8%, and military jets will need 4%. Notably, nearly half of the projected total is earmarked for use on CFM International's (Melun, France) CFM 56 and LEAP 1 families, which are used extensively to power the A320 and B737, and will soon be aboard the emerging MS-21 and C919 single-aisle transports. CFM International is a joint venture of GE (Evendale, OH, US) and SNECMA (Courcouronnes, France, a division of SAFRAN), so it should not be surprising that GE is the next largest consumer of composite engine components. Combined, CFM and GE will represent about 72 percent of total aeroengine composites demand. Over the next several years, however, Rolls-Royce's (London, UK) Trent and Pratt & Whitney's (East Hartford, CT, US) PurePower engine families are expected to account for a considerable portion of the 28% balance. The majority of the aircraft engines reviewed for this study are produced by European and North American manufacturers. Our research indicates the latter currently control the lion's share of total production, accounting for ~60% of the tonnage produced during 2014. France, through the SAFRAN group, holds close to a 30% share; Japan, Ireland, Italy, Spain, Belgium and Austria divide the majority of the remaining 10%. Many engine manufacturers have significant in-house composites manufacturing capacity. GE Aircraft Engines, for example, has US facilities in Batesville, MS, Newark, DE, Baltimore, MD, Asheville, NC, and Ellisville, MS, as well as joint-venture subsidiaries. Rolls-Royce has reportedly purchased a large number of small fiber-placement machines for production of composite fan blades for upcoming engine platforms. Prominent tier suppliers in the engine composites segment include the following (with market shares noted): * Albany Engineered Composites (Rochester, NH, US) 12.8% * C-Fan (San Marcos, TX, US) 8.7% * Nexcelle (Cincinnati, OH, US) 8.8% * GKN Aerospace (Worcestershire, UK) 6.0% * Aircelle (Gonfreville-l'Orcher, France) 3.9% * FACC AG (Ried, Austria) 3.6% Based on existing applications and current work shares, US manufacturers are poised to significantly increase their market shares during the forecast period. Anticipating that the US dollar will remain weak vs. major European and Asian currencies, we expect that North American manufacturers will control 70% of the market by 2023. Processes and materials Historically dominant, hand layup and autoclave cure of prepreg remains the most-used method for producing composite engine components. Filament winding also has a long history, but a much smaller role in aeroengines, as the method used to fabricate aramid fiber containment belts that surround fan cases. Like fabricators of other aircraft structures, engine builders have long sought to drive down manufacturing costs and maximize production output and efficiency. That quest has led the former to develop automated tape laying (ATL), automated fiber placement (AFP) and infusion processes for large primary structures. But the latter have been drawn to methods more readily applicable to relatively small but more complex engine parts. A case in point is CFM's LEAP 1 (see photo, at left), expected to enter service later this decade. Individually placed, autoclave-cured prepreg plies have been replaced in its fan blades by 3D braided preforms processed by RTM. This strategy reduces composite part complexity and yields a dramatically shorter cure cycle, cutting the cost per unit of weight saved. Fig. 8 illustrates that autoclave/prepreg and RTM processes (the latter accounting for nearly 30% of production) will continue to dominate the market over the forecast. Although RTM has proven to be the most adaptable processing alternative, multiaxial compression molding is emerging as a viable means to mold some smaller components, including fan platforms and, perhaps more interestingly, thrust reversers - an application historically dominated by suppliers based in Japan. In terms of fiber reinforcements, our study found that glass, carbon and aramid fibers will continue to be incorporated into engine component laminates. Aramid, as noted, will reinforce fan containment cases. Glass fibers, currently, are used primarily in acoustic panels incorporated into nacelles. Standard-modulus carbon fibers will continue to reinforce some nacelle elements, but high-strength, standard-modulus and intermediate-modulus carbon fibers, together, will account for about 94% of the 12,474 MT of raw fiber destined for this market in the coming 10 years. High-performance, intermediate-modulus fibers alone will meet an estimated 83%, or 10,400 MT, of the forecasted fiber demand. This study also looked at matrix resins. We estimate that 7,530 MT of resin materials will be required to support the prepreg, liquid RTM resins and molding compounds used to produce engine structures during the coming decade. Standard and toughened epoxies (121°C-cure and 176°C-cure) are expected to dominate, representing about 93% of the total, followed by bismaleimide and polyimide. Given the high- temperature applications in engines, this study also tracked the use of cyanate esters, phenolics, benzoxazines, phthalonitriles and thermoplastics, but only thermoplastics appeared in any sizable quantity, largely for engine brackets and for emerging thrust-reverser applications. Future flight plan As a result of continuing cost pressures on aircraft operators, the market for composite aeroengine components has nearly tripled since 2005. The durability and superior mechanical performance of carbon fiber composites, in particular, has been instrumental in enabling the production of high-bypass turbofans, through larger fan blades and lighter supporting and surrounding components in larger fan sections. Based on growing aircraft production rates, especially for commercial aircraft, our previously noted (and conservative) 2014 estimate of nearly 1,680 MT of composite engine components, worth more than US$1.1 billion, will grow, by 2023, to more than 2,665 MT of structures, valued at US$1.7 billion. Cumulatively, over the 2014-2023 forecast period, about 23,586 MT of engine composites will be fabricated. That will provide considerable growth impetus for manufacturers of composite engine parts and their respective supply chains. Material suppliers will need to expand their raw materials output. After accounting for trim and waste in manufacturing processes, our study found that manufacturers will require nearly 33,113 MT of fiber and resin systems - primarily intermediate-modulus carbon fiber and toughened- epoxy resin systems. At base raw material prices, this represents more than US$1.4 billion in sales. After conversion into prepregs, infusible preforms, molding compounds and other intermediate product forms, the sales value will easily exceed US$2 billion. On a final note, however, we should point out that the service-temperature range of polymer matrix composites effectively limits them to the engine's front "cold" section. Although some polymer matrices can safely operate at temperatures greater than 177°C, the majority of engine weight is still concentrated in the engine's "hot zone," where low- and high-pressure turbine segments can see operating temperatures in excess of 1,315°C - well beyond the capabilities of even the most exotic polymers. The high cost and manufacturing difficulty associated with high-temperature metal alloys for these applications present a large target for future weight reduction efforts based on ceramics and ceramic-matrix composites. Now under development for use in CFM's LEAP 1, in the turbine rotor shroud, these materials are likely to find application elsewhere in the next several years, including, for example, exhaust nozzles and bearings. Although the extent to which these newer materials might be applied across the broad spectrum of aircraft engine components has yet to be determined, there is considerable ground for engine- builder experimentation. In fact, potential opportunities for replacement of metals with ceramic matrix composites could be larger than those already claimed by polymer matrix composites. http://www.compositesworld.com/articles/composites-in-commercial-aircraft-engines-2014-2023 Back to Top ERAU NextGen 101 Seminar - Washington, D.C. "The Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University-Worldwide Office of Professional Education is pleased to announce a two-day seminar entitled NextGen 101. The course is designed to identify the key concepts, attributes, and challenges of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). Government and industry employees with an interest in NextGen, aviation stakeholders and members of the military transitioning to a career in civilian education should attend. The course will take place in Washington D.C. on April 21-22, 2015. Course fee is $750 per person or $675 per person with five or more people registering from the same group. For more information and to register, please visit us online at http://proed.erau.edu/programs/specialized- industry-training/nextgen-101-seminar/index.html" Back to Top Upcoming Events: IS-BAO Workshop Information and Registration 13 - 14 Jan. 2015 Baltimore, MD USA https://www.regonline.com/CalendarNET/EventCalendar.aspx?EventID=1592658&view=Month A3IR CON 2015 January 16-17, 2015 Phoenix, AZ http://commons.erau.edu/aircon/2015/ Air Charter Safety Foundation (ACSF) NTSB Training Center, Ashburn, VA March 10-11, 2015 www.acsf.aero/symposium ERAU NextGen 101 Seminar April 21-22, 2015. Washington D.C. http://proed.erau.edu/programs/specialized-industry-training/nextgen-101-seminar/index.html FAA Helicopter Safety Effort three-day safety forum April 21-23, 2015 Hurst, Texas eugene.trainor@faa.gov www.faahelisafety.org Curt Lewis