Flight Safety Information January 13, 2015 - No. 009 In This Issue Divers Pull Up 2nd Black Box From Crashed AirAsia Jet Safety Experts Focus on In-Flight Stall or Upset as AirAsia Crash Cause Pilots Report Hundreds of Drone Sightings to FAA Electric Airplanes Are the Future of Pilot Training PROS 2015 TRAINING Colorado's Red Rock Biofuels investing $200M in jet-fuel project Research Survey Request Najeeb E. Halaby Graduate Student Fellowship ERAU NextGen 101 Seminar - Washington, D.C. Upcoming Events Divers Pull Up 2nd Black Box From Crashed AirAsia Jet Indonesia retrieves crashed AirAsia jet's flight data recorder Divers retrieved the crashed AirAsia plane's second black box from the bottom of the Java Sea on Tuesday, giving experts essential tools to piece together what brought Flight 8501 down. The cockpit voice recorder was freed from beneath the heavy ruins of a wing early in the morning from a depth of about 98 feet, a day after the aircraft's flight data recorder was recovered, said Tonny Budiono, sea navigation director at the Transportation Ministry. "Thank God," he said. "This is good news for investigators to reveal the cause of the plane crash." The device will be flown to the capital, Jakarta, to be downloaded and analyzed with the other box. Since it records in a two-hour loop, all discussions between the captain and co-pilot should be available. The plane disappeared from radar 42 minutes into a flight from Surabaya, Indonesia, to Singapore on Dec. 28. All 162 people on board were killed, but only 48 bodies have been recovered so far. The find is the latest boost in the slow-moving hunt to scour the shallow, murky stretch of ocean. Over the weekend, the tail of the Airbus A320 was recovered, emblazoned with the carrier's red-and-white cursive logo. The black boxes are housed inside the tail, but they were missing when the wreckage was pulled to the surface. The devices were soon located after three Indonesian ships detected two strong pings being emitted from their beacons, about 22 yards apart. Strong currents, large waves and blinding silt have hindered divers' efforts throughout the 17-day search, but they took advantage of calmer early morning conditions on both days to extract the instruments. The information pulled from the black boxes - which are actually orange - will likely be vital. Designed to survive extreme heat and pressure, they should provide investigators with a second-by-second timeline of the flight. The voice recorder captures all conversations between the pilots and with air traffic controllers, as well as any noises heard in the cockpit, including possible alarms or explosions. The flight data recorder saves information on the position and condition of almost every major part in the plane, including altitude, airspeed, direction, engine thrust, the rate of ascent or descent and what up-or-down angle the plane was pointed. "There's like 200-plus parameters they record," said aviation expert John Goglia, a former U.S. National Transportation Safety Board member. "It's going to provide us an ocean of material." In their last contact with air-traffic controllers, the pilots of the AirAsia jet asked to climb from 32,000 feet to 38,000 feet to avoid threatening clouds, but were denied permission because of heavy air traffic. Four minutes later, the plane disappeared. No distress signal was received. Searchers also have been trying to locate the main section of the aircraft's cabin, where many of the victims are believed to be entombed. Decomposition is making identification more difficult for desperate families waiting to bury their loved ones. Nearly all passengers and crew were Indonesian. "I still believe many victims remain trapped there, and we must find them," said Gen. Moeldoko, Indonesia's military chief, who uses one name. http://www.npr.org/2015/01/13/376876716/divers-pull-up-2nd-black-box-from-crashed-airasia-jet Back to Top Safety Experts Focus on In-Flight Stall or Upset as AirAsia Crash Cause As Probe Awaits Information From Black Boxes, Maintenance Issues Seen Less Likely By ANDY PASZTOR ators prepare to process data from AirAsia Flight 8501, industry officials and air-safety experts are focusing on the likelihood of a high-altitude stall or upset as the main culprit in the crash and playing down the possibility that maintenance issues were to blame. It still was expected to take several days to dry out the black-box recorder that was recovered from the seafloor Monday, retrieve its data and then assess that information. Meanwhile, air-safety experts have tried to construct likely scenarios about the cause of the Dec. 28 crash, using information that is already available about the condition of the wreckage and the recovered bodies. Experts involved in the Indonesia-led investigation, as well as those monitoring it from the outside, have emphasized it is too early to definitively rule out anything or draw firm conclusions before information from the plane's black-box recorders are downloaded. That data could contradict current assumptions and theories. At the same time, some technical conclusions appeared to be gaining acceptance among many safety experts. Two weeks after the Airbus A320 disappeared from radar screens while flying near intense storm cells, industry officials and safety experts increasingly are focusing on what they see as the most probable scenario: a high-altitude stall or aircraft upset, likely exacerbated by turbulence and bad weather, that may have sent the plane into an uncontrollable descent or spin. The Airbus A320 didn't have any big outstanding maintenance problems or deferred safety fixes before it plummeted into the Java Sea, according to industry officials and air-safety experts familiar with the probe. That strongly suggests mechanical defects, structural problems and maintenance-related issues likely weren't major factors in the crash, which killed all 162 aboard the flight en route to Singapore from Surabaya, Indonesia. Just one of the two black box recorders had been recovered, but on Monday divers also spotted the jetliner's cockpit-voice recorder under the wreckage of one wing. Indonesian investigators have declined to comment on the emphasis or direction of their probe. On Monday, however, one investigator said the team had requested and received information from manufacturer Airbus Group NV about four current safety directives, and AirAsia had completed the required work on all of them. He didn't elaborate on the specifics of the directives. "There's no question, we got all the evidence," the investigator said. "The operator has done the job for those" directives. A spin often occurs after an aerodynamic stall, a condition in which a plane flies too slowly or the nose rises too sharply for a specific forward speed. The result of a stall is that the wings lose lift, and eventually the aircraft can't stay in the air. Based on previous airliner accidents, experts said a stall or spin typically results from a combination of factors, which can include bad weather, pilot confusion or improper commands, and malfunctions of sensors or flight-control systems. The condition of the bodies that have been autopsied also appears to support the stall theory, according to air-safety experts. There were no signs of soot or burn damage on the bodies, likely indicating there was no fire. The autopsies, according to air-safety experts familiar with the probe, also suggest there was no breakup or sudden decompression, until conceivably just before impact, and the plane probably hit the water at a relatively horizontal angle. The broken legs of the victims are consistent with the scenario of a plane pancaking into the water, instead of hitting the surface at a high vertical velocity, according to Michael Barr, a senior accident- investigations instructor at the University of Southern California. "The flatter the impact, the less trauma damage to the body." Investigators have declined to comment on hints gleaned from the autopsies. One former U.S. crash investigator familiar with the AirAsia probe said the autopsy findings appear to point to a plane losing altitude relatively fast, with wings fairly level. The broken legs, he said, reflect "high vertical impact with lower forward velocity." The size and location of wreckage searchers have described on the seafloor indicates that the engines didn't break off in midair, according to safety experts. Sizable pieces of wreckage spotted underwater, believed to include intact portions of a wing and the fuselage, also mean the aircraft likely didn't hit the water in a nose-first dive, these experts said. The larger the pieces discovered underwater, the slower the plane probably was traveling at impact, according to several safety experts. http://www.wsj.com/articles/airasia-experts-focus-on-in-flight-upset-as-crash-cause-1421064504 Back to Top Pilots Report Hundreds of Drone Sightings to FAA Pilots have reported hundreds of drone sightings in the United States, with some of them right here in Chicago, and they're saying that it's not safe. Especially at busy airports like O'Hare International Airport. Pilots have reported hundreds of drone sightings in the United States, with some of them right here in Chicago, and they're saying that it's not safe. Especially at busy airports like O'Hare International Airport. In July of last year, the FAA said a Republic Airways flight from Kansas City reported seeing a radio- controlled aircraft operating at 500-feet, only a mile from O'Hare. Three months earlier a drone was found crashed on the property of Tech Cor in Wheeling, less than half a mile from Chicago Executive Airport. Those two incidents are among 190 near-misses and pilot sightings of drones and other unmanned aircraft systems reported to the FAA from January to November of last year. Captain Lee Moak, the President of the Airline Pilots Association told a congressional hearing that close encounters with drones are on the increase and more regulation is needed. "I think many people don't realize they are flying them in commercial airspace and it could cause a significant hazard," Moak said. The FAA said it is drafting new rules that drone pilots must follow. Already they must fly under 400-feet and within sight of their operators. Drones are supposed to stay five miles away from airports. But some drone enthusiasts, like Adam Eidinger, worry that the new rules will go too far. "These things are really not on the radar as a public threat or a safety threat, however as more and more people start flying them they could be," Eidinger said. "But for now they are not and I think the government has really overreached." But drones were such a popular gift over the Holidays that the FAA produced a public service announcement to educate their operators. Some airline pilots say more drones in the sky means a greater chance that one could strike an airplane full of passengers. "The bottom line is they should not be allowed around an airport or the approach to an airport because that can be significantly dangerous," Moak said. Source: http://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/Pilots-Report-Hundreds-of-Drone-Sightings-to-FAA- 288341271.html#ixzz3OhZ0SpfH Back to Top Electric Airplanes Are the Future of Pilot Training The Airbus E-Fan 2.0 and 4.0. Walk into a flight school today and you'll probably take your first training flight in an aging airplane that's noisy, expensive, and burns leaded fuel. But the race is on to change that, with electric trainers that are clean, vibration-free, and cheap to operate. Electric aviation has been in experimental development for years, but now a US startup, European aerospace giant Airbus, and a Chinese aviation manufacturer are among those who believe electric airplanes are ready for the mainstream. If they make it happen, it could get a lot cheaper-and more pleasant-to learn to fly. "Electric airplanes will change everything when it comes to the cost of flying," says George Bye, a Colorado-based serial entrepreneur who's been involved in several aviation projects. His new company, Aero Electric Aircraft Corporation, plans to have its two-seat Sun Flyer ready for flight testing by the summer. The solar cells on the wings provide a little extra juice, and if you park the plane in the sun for a few days, they'll fully charge the battery for free. Taking into account maintenance and fuel costs, the two-seat Sun Flyer will cost about $5 an hour to operate, according to Bye, compared to $73 an hour for a Cessna 172, a four-seat airplane frequently used for training. A new Sun Flyer will sell for about $180,000 to $200,000, which may sound like a lot, but a new 172 sells for about $370,000. "The bottom line is, we are interested in generating excitement about flying, and making it affordable," says Bye. Bye hopes to be the first to market in the US with an electric-powered training aircraft fully certified by the FAA, in 2017 or sooner. He's not the only one in the race. The E-Fan on view at the Grand Palais, Paris. In April, Airbus revealed the E-Fan 2.0 battery-powered airplane. In July, the company said it plans to be first to market with an e-plane for flight schools, aiming to start deliveries in 2017. The two-seater, to be built in with French manufacturer Daher-Socata, will be able to stay aloft as long as two hours. That's not much for commercial service, but it's plenty for the training market, where most flights last about an hour and transporting passengers isn't the goal. Once the plane lands, it's easy to swap out depleted batteries for fresh ones and resume flying. By 2019, Airbus plans to also offer a four- seat hybrid version for personal transportation. It's the first step in a 30-year plan to develop a 90- passenger airliner with electric or hybrid propulsion, part of a grander vision to cut European carbon emissions by 75 percent by 2050. Electric aircraft are advancing in China as well, where construction has started on a plant that will manufacture two-seat Rui Xiang RX1E electric airplanes. The production line is expected to boot up early this year. The aircraft, developed at Shenyang Aerospace University, will fly as long as 90 minutes on a full charge. Private aviation has been slow to develop in China, where government rules make it difficult, but pressure is building to open the airways to promote economic development. If battery costs continue to decline and electric planes can spend more time in the air, it will grow harder to make the case for gasoline engines, at least for the training market, where flights are brief and you don't need more than two seats. Besides the clear cost advantage, electric flight is just smoother and quieter, and maintaining an electric airplane is a lot less trouble, thanks to fewer moving parts. If learning to fly is on your to-do list, you might find the trainer planes of the not-too-distant future parked outside in the sun, powering up for your first lesson. http://www.wired.com/2015/01/electric-airplanes-future-pilot-training/ Back to Top Back to Top Colorado's Red Rock Biofuels investing $200M in jet-fuel project Red Rock Biofuels is investing $200 million in Lakeview, Oregon, to construct a refinery to convert waste from forestry operations and mills into biofuels, including jet fuel for military and aviation use. Red Rock Biofuels LLC, based in Fort Collins, is investing $200 million in a biofuel refinery in the rural southern Oregon community of Lakeview. Jeff Manternach, the Portland, Oregon-based co-founder and CFO of Red Rock, highlighted plans for the ambitious project at a recent meeting in Oregon. The Red Rock project will convert up to 140,000 tons of woody biomass gathered from the Fremont- Winema National Forest and a local lumber mill into 12 million gallons of biofuel, notably jet fuel. http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/blog/earth_to_power/2015/01/colorados-red-rock-biofuels-investing- 200m-in-jet.html Back to Top Research Survey Request Limited Job Task Analysis Validation Survey The Center for Aviation Safety Research at Saint Louis University (USA) invites active and recently retired pilots, check airmen and instructors to validate a Limited Job Task Analysis for professional pilots. This task analysis focuses on a select set of phases of flight and seeks your opinion regarding the criticality of the underpinning knowledge requirements. This task analysis was developed with the help of an international panel of subject matter experts and practicing professional pilots. We are requesting you to kindly take this 45-minute online survey (https://slu.az1.qualtrics.com/SE/?SID=SV_0GuI969wyJB4snP ) to validate our draft of the task analysis. Please note that we need to have all survey responses by January 15, 2015. And, if you have friends who are qualified to support this research, we respectfully ask that you forward this invitation to them, as well. If you have any trouble accessing the survey, please feel free to contact Dr. Manoj Patankar, Executive Director of the Center for Aviation Safety, at patankar@slu.edu or 314-977-8725. Back to Top Najeeb E. Halaby Graduate Student Fellowship The Najeeb E. Halaby Graduate Student Fellowship was established by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) to shape the next generation of researchers in aviation weather, honoring the late Najeeb Elias Halaby, an eminent aviator and administrator, for his vision and more than five decades of extraordinary contributions to aviation (http://www.ral.ucar.edu/halabyfellowship.pdf). The Fellowship The recipient of a Najeeb E. Halaby Graduate Student Fellowship will spend three months (in 2015 or early 2016) in residence with NCAR's Aviation Weather Research Program, which Mr. Halaby was instrumental in establishing in the 1980s. As the nation's leader in addressing aviation weather research, NCAR plays a unique role in meeting user needs by transferring research results to operations through its Research Application Laboratory (http://www.ral.ucar.edu/). The Fellow will conduct research broadly aimed at improving the integration of weather into decision support tools for improved weather avoidance and air traffic management. The Fellowship will provide: * a monthly stipend for three months, including temporary living expenses * round-trip travel expenses to and from Boulder, CO * travel to a conference to present results * page charges for one publication of key results Eligibility and Application The Halaby Fellowship targets graduate students (late Masters or early PhD level) enrolled in an aviation- relevant department or program of a domestic or international university. Interested candidates should have advanced research skills, far-reaching vision, and dedication to get things accomplished. Consideration for this Fellowship will be given to candidates based on the following submitted material: * Curriculum vitae * Proposal (maximum five pages) presenting the research to be conducted at NCAR, the anticipated outcome of that, and how the proposed effort ties into the candidate's ongoing graduate research project(s) * Contact information for three references (one of which should be the student's primary advisor) NCAR will accept applications for the Halaby Fellowship each year. Email Applications by February 28, 2015 to halabyfellowship@ucar.edu Back to Top ERAU NextGen 101 Seminar - Washington, D.C. "The Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University-Worldwide Office of Professional Education is pleased to announce a two-day seminar entitled NextGen 101. The course is designed to identify the key concepts, attributes, and challenges of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). Government and industry employees with an interest in NextGen, aviation stakeholders and members of the military transitioning to a career in civilian education should attend. The course will take place in Washington D.C. on April 21-22, 2015. Course fee is $750 per person or $675 per person with five or more people registering from the same group. For more information and to register, please visit us online at http://proed.erau.edu/programs/specialized- industry-training/nextgen-101-seminar/index.html" Back to Top Upcoming Events: A3IR CON 2015 January 16-17, 2015 Phoenix, AZ http://commons.erau.edu/aircon/2015/ Air Charter Safety Foundation (ACSF) NTSB Training Center, Ashburn, VA March 10-11, 2015 www.acsf.aero/symposium ERAU NextGen 101 Seminar April 21-22, 2015. Washington D.C. http://proed.erau.edu/programs/specialized-industry-training/nextgen-101-seminar/index.html FAA Helicopter Safety Effort three-day safety forum April 21-23, 2015 Hurst, Texas eugene.trainor@faa.gov www.faahelisafety.org Curt Lewis