Flight Safety Information February 18, 2015 - No. 033 In This Issue Local pilots targeted in laser attack The Great American Pilot Shortage Rise in plane crashes spotlights improper pilot training Having one pilot in the cockpit might be scarier than having none PROS 2015 TRAINING Paul Allen's mammoth Stratolaunch aircraft nearly half completed Announcing the EAAP Courses in Human Factors for 2015 ProfiSafety for Spring 2015 2015 Southeast Regional Chapter of ISASI's annual meeting Upcoming Events Local pilots targeted in laser attack Passengers on two flights coming into Houston had no idea their pilots were being blinded by someone on the ground. Marcelino Benito, KHOU 11 News 11:13 p.m. CST February 16, 2015 "I'm annoyed by it as a pilot," said Turner. "You're trying to concentrate and you jump, the whole aircraft jumps with you." HOUSTON - Passengers on two flights coming into Houston had no idea their pilots were being blinded by someone on the ground. As Southwest Airlines Flight 2405 approached Hobby Airport Sunday evening, a green laser shined through the right side of the cockpit. The flight was just 1,000 feet from the ground, but it managed to land safely. But pilot Michael Turner says one day a flight won't. "They're putting 150 to 200 people in danger," said Turner. Turner is Assistant Chief Pilot at American Jet International. He's been lased more than 10 times over Houston skies. "I'm annoyed by it as a pilot," said Turner. "You're trying to concentrate and you jump, the whole aircraft jumps with you." The lasers cause glare in the cockpit and can temporary blind pilots as they land. "It can cause catastrophic effects," said Turner. Southwest Flight 2405 was one of three flights that reported laser strikes at Hobby Sunday evening. HPD, the FBI and FAA are all now investigating. This all comes one year after officials announced a $10,000 reward for tips leading to arrests. "You may think this is a joke, but it's serious business," said Turner. "People get hurt. We don't want a catastrophic event to happen because someone's playing a joke." Atlantic Southeast Flight 4531 also reported a laser strike Sunday night as it came into land at Bush Airport. Police say they're having a hard time pin-pointing where those strikes came from, so tips from the public are very important. http://www.khou.com/story/news/2015/02/17/local-pilots-targeted-in-laser- attack/23535335/ Back to Top The Great American Pilot Shortage As if flying weren't irritating enough already - with rising airfares and stringent security policies - now there's a shortage of commercial pilots on the horizon, which could result in air service shutdowns at smaller regional airports. More than 20,000 cockpit seats are expected to be available at U.S. airlines over the next seven years due to FAA-mandated age-65 retirements, Aviation Week reported Monday. Regional pilots, who tend to have lower wages, typically take the cockpit seats at major U.S. airlines for significantly higher salaries. Newly graduated pilots in turn replace them. Here's the problem with this picture, said Aviation Week: Too few are choosing careers in the cockpit. The shortage is already affecting regional airlines, with fewer flight options for travelers. American airports of all sizes have been suffering flight cuts in recent years due to the growing pilot shortage, the Regional Airline Association said in a September press release. Some cuts have been as high as 81 percent. Some cities already down 10 percent or more of their scheduled airline departures include Cleveland, Memphis, Louisville and Tallahassee. But the impact might lead to some smaller U.S. cities losing air service altogether, according to Aviation Week. Reasons for the pilot plight vary. One is that fewer military pilots are joining commercial airlines after their military service: The compensation is less attractive and work schedules are busier. The military has also dramatically reduced its need for pilots and pilot training - except for drone pilots, who are in high demand. "Transport pilots and helicopter pilots stay in the military for 20 years to hit retirement so they have something secure before considering the airlines - which they view as not secure because of what airlines have done to pilots' retirement accounts in almost every round of bankruptcy filings," said Mary Schiavo, former inspector general for the Dept. of Transportation and today an attorney Fewer people are also joining pilot school, deterred by lower starting salaries and pension cuts. As the Air Line Pilots Association put it in an article last year, "There is ... a shortage of qualified pilots willing to fly for substandard wages and inadequate benefits." Schiavo also noted that many pilots are taking work in other countries at a premium. To address the pilot shortage, some have suggested the FAA reassess its strict 1,500- hour flying requirement to become a pilot. Others say college graduates could acquire hours as flight instructors on an airline's payroll - or that regional and major airlines could partner to offer scholarships in return for service commitments to flying for them both. For now, Americans will have to get used to fewer options when traveling and most likely longer layovers. They can also start dreaming of a pilotless plane. http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2015/02/17/Great-American-Pilot- Shortage#sthash.9bEaSfNI.dpuf Back to Top Rise in plane crashes spotlights improper pilot training Recent Malaysia Airlines crashes have shined a spotlight on pilot training in Asia. CCTV's Rian Maelzer filed this story from Kuala Lumpur. The deadly plane crashes between December 2014 and February 2015 have turned the focus on air safety in a region that has seen the most rapid growth of air travel anywhere in the world. This growth means that existing airlines are adding more aircraft, while new airlines are also springing up. It has intensified the race to find enough qualified pilots. More than one billion passengers flew on Asian airlines last year, a number that has doubled every 12 years. The fastest growing markets such as Indonesia and China are seeing double-digit growth. Boeing estimates that the Asia Pacific region will need more than 200,000 additional pilots over the next two decades, 40 percent of the world's total pilots. The rapid growth of aviation in Asia has increased competition for qualified pilots. "Pilot deficit, or not enough pilots do surface up from time to time. It's cyclical. There are times when there's more than enough, and there are times where there are shortages," Aviation analyst Mohshin Aziz said. "But by and large the region has been managing it fairly well." One key way Asian airlines have been meeting demand is by poaching pilots from other airlines, particularly in more mature markets like the U.S. "That's a sore point because some airlines start up and the last thing on their minds is training pilots, they want to get flying as soon as possible so they hire pilots from the market," Director General of the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines Andrew Herdman said. "Training pilots is an expensive business so airlines that have trained their own pilots do feel the loss when they lose experienced staff." The rapid growth of airlines can also mean that locally trained pilots often rise up the ranks more quickly. "The time it takes to move from first officer in the right seat to the captain's seat varies a lot depending on how rapidly the industry is growing," Herdman said. "We do need to look at the overall experience levels in the community. That's one of the reasons why the movement of the pilots from one region to another and one country to another is a positive feature because it does mean that experienced pilots are moving where they are needed." But Herdman said Asia can't continue to count on drawing talent from elsewhere. Asian Airlines and the industry as a whole need to ramp up pilot training to meet the ever- growing demand for air travel in the region. http://www.cctv-america.com/2015/02/17/rise-in-plane-crashes-spotlights-improper- pilot-training Back to Top Having one pilot in the cockpit might be scarier than having none. No lone hero: Chesley "Sully" Sullenberger, left, and co-pilot Jeffrey Skiles speak in the cockpit of a US Airways flight moments before takeoff from LaGuardia Airport on Oct. 1, 2009, in New York City. If you strolled through a 1950s airport, you would have seen a flight crew of four stride by in step, sporting aviator sunglasses and dressed to the nines. They'd be headed into the office. Up top, where the sky's blue, the coffee's hot, and the view can't be beat. The cockpit they knew had more gauges and switches than the top floor of Frankenstein's castle, and each crew member was master of his own part of it. They had wild layovers in faraway places that most people only dreamed of ever going. At work and at play, they were a team. Airline pilots today will tell you that much of the romance has been deleted from that scene-not to mention half the flight crew. The first to get pink-slipped was the navigator, who used to climb up to the sextant port on top of the airplane to consult the stars and figure out the airplane's position, give or take 5 miles. Next to go was the flight engineer, affectionately known as "the plumber": the one who looked after the airplane's systems during flight. When GPS, sensors, and fast processors arrived, these two crew members were told that the functions they once performed could now be handled at lower cost and with greater precision by automation. What remain today are two pilots and an auto-flight system that is now used during much of the flight. And, yes, flying is cheaper and safer than ever. Now that we've gone from four pilots to two, and with more automation on the way, you don't need to be a mind reader to know what the industry is thinking next. The aircraft manufacturer Embraer has already revealed plans for a single-pilot regional jet, and Cessna has produced several small single-pilot jets. (I'm rated to fly this one.) And as my colleagues at NASA are busy studying the feasibility of large single-pilot airliners, a Delta Air Lines pilot made it look easy a few weeks ago when the other pilot was accidentally locked out of the cockpit. But should we be a little nervous about the idea of having just one pilot up there in the front office? The research says maybe so. Studies show that pilots make plenty of errors. That's why we have two pilots in the airline cockpit-to construct a sort of human safety net. While one pilot operates the aircraft's controls, the other pilot keeps watch for occasional errors and tries to point them out before they cause any harm. NASA engineer Everett Palmer likes to sum up the idea with a quip: "To err is human, to be error-tolerant is divine." Keeping the error- maker and getting rid of the error-catcher may not prove to be very error-tolerant. Besides, automation doesn't eliminate human error-it just relocates it. The engineers and programmers who design automation are humans, too. They write complex software that contains bugs and nuances. Pilots often speak of automation surprises in which the computers do something unexpected, occasionally resulting in accidents. Having only one pilot in the cockpit might compromise our ability to make sense of these technological noodle-scratchers when they pop up. As automation assumes more and more control of flights, pilots must remain ready to intervene when something goes wrong. But when they're not busy saving the day, what do pilots do while monitoring the automation? Studies show that pilots spend impressive amounts of this time talking to each other, mind-wandering, and drifting out of the loop. If you've ever wondered how well pilots perform when asked to suddenly take over after long periods of automated control, the available research does not inspire confidence. "When a problem arises after a long period of nothingness, the response of people is well-documented," says design thinker Don Norman. "It goes something like this: 'Huh? What's happening? Oh shit.' " After initial training in a simulator, a new airline pilot gets an on-the-job education during her initial operating experience, and then over the next few years as a first officer while "flying the line" with more experienced captains. Before we drop down to only one pilot, we will need a substitute for the apprenticeship learning that is so central to airline pilot training today. Although rare, pilot incapacitation is another problem that would be amplified in a one- pilot cockpit. Aside from having an airplane that would need to fly itself or be controlled from the ground, recognizing incapacitation is not easy. Sometimes pilots are just quiet; sometimes there is something more serious going on. It's difficult to imagine a lonesome pilot in a highly automated cockpit, enduring long hours of boredom, watching her skills and ability to pay attention slip away, yet somehow remaining ready to intervene on a moment's notice. Google has already given up on the idea of asking drivers to assume this role in a semi-automated car, because it understands that people simply aren't any good at it. In Google's vision, the safer bet is to keep working and build a "zero-pilot" car: one that steers clear of the problems that will surely pop up as we gradually substitute computers for humans behind the wheel. But high in the sky and with so many souls on board, there are a great many unsolved challenges that stand in the way of a safe autonomous airliner. One way to mitigate the problems that arise from a single pilot watching over automation might be to design a cockpit in which pilot and automation cooperatively fly the airplane. In his book The Design of Future Things, Norman presents us with the example of a horse and rider. Norman points out that the rider doesn't program and monitor the horse, nor does the horse wander around at will. "They do it together," says Norman. In a collaborative system, Norman says, the human is "continually involved in giving high-level guidance, thereby always staying active, always being in the loop." To date, no airplane manufacturers seem interested in redesigning airplanes to work more like horses, although a few of my colleagues at NASA have taken a crack at it. NASA is also considering alternatives to letting one pilot go it alone. "Two heads are better than one," insists Walter Johnson, who leads a NASA project that explores the idea of having pilots' helpers on the ground who remain in constant communication with as many as 12 aircraft at a time. But even this idea presents problems when we look at it more closely. Johnson was quick to point out, "The safety of the flight cannot depend on the availability of the ground pilot. The air-ground communication link could go down." No pilot wants to hear: Your air disaster is important to us. Please continue to hold ... And having a helper on the other end of a communications link may not be the same thing as having a crew mate sitting beside you. Cognitive anthropologist Ed Hutchins has shown that pilots communicate with each other using facial expressions, posture, head pose, eye gaze, and even respiratory rate. "When we work together in a shared space," Hutchins told me, "a lot need not be said." Hutchins added: "A link to a ground pilot might become a nuisance to a pilot dealing with a real problem." Johnson's team at NASA is looking at ways of using technology to recapture some of the nonverbal cues between the two pilots who would be physically separated. "We're making good progress," says Johnson. Automation in the cockpit is forcing us to address the hard questions about how to use technology as it increases in capability. Do humans, by their very nature, need to work in teams? Can humans and computers work effectively as a team? Will we always need humans in the loop, or will all four of those original pilots eventually be out of a job? And if there are any jobs left, will they be any fun? Or will they be lonely affairs in which people sit like potted plants in front of complex computing systems, watching out for blinking lights? Aviation is pounding its fist on the desk and demanding answers. Johnson acknowledges that: "When you work on technology like this, fear is everywhere." But dear frequent-flying reader: Relax. When the first two-crew airliners rolled out, there were three-pilot airplanes flying around for 30 more years. So fliers had a choice. And so will you. How do you like your cockpit? With no pilots, one, or two? You'll probably have plenty of time to think it over. This article is part of Future Tense, a collaboration among Arizona State University, New America, and Slate. Future Tense explores the ways emerging technologies affect society, policy, and culture. To read more, visit the Future Tense blog and the Future Tense home page. You can also follow us on Twitter. http://www.slate.com/ Back to Top Back to Top Paul Allen's mammoth Stratolaunch aircraft nearly half completed Stratolaunch 02 Paul Allen Paul Allen is getting attention for his collection of World War II aircraft, but he's also enamored with space exploration. He's shown here with a model of his Stratolaunch aircraft, which is to fly in 2016. Microsoft billionaire Paul Allen's dream to build the world's largest airplane based on the remains of two used Boeing 747s is 40 percent complete. Scaled Composites President Kevin Mickey confirmed the progress in an email Tuesday from that company's headquarters in Mojave, Calif., where the aircraft is being built. The aircraft is the centerpiece of Allen's Stratolaunch Systems company, which is intended to reduce the cost of space launches by carrying a launch vehicle 30,000 feet in the air slung under the mammoth plane, then igniting the rocket motors. Scaled Composites is building the Stratolaunch for Allen by harnessing six former 747 engines for power, and matching them to a twin-hull composite aircraft, with a wingspan of 380 feet. By comparison, the wingspan of Boeing's largest aircraft, the 747-8, is 225 feet. The wings and fuselage of the 1.3 million-pound Stratolaunch will be new, and about 80 percent of the assemblies are complete, Mickey said. While Allen himself lives several homes in the Puget Sound area, or on his super yacht "Octopus," Stratolaunch is headquartered in Huntsville, Alabama. Progress on the aircraft seems so far to be steady. The first flight is still scheduled for 2016, the same date the company earlier indicated. If that remains the case, the aircraft is supposed to finish certification flights and launch its first space craft by 2018. Spokespeople for Allen's enterprises, including Vulcan, declined to comment on the timing of the aircraft. The work is being done in a 103,257-square-foot hangar and a 88,000-square-foot wing assembly building in Mojave, both custom-built for this purpose. Allen's interest in space flight led him to pour $28 million into SpaceShipOne, built by iconoclastic Scaled Composites founder Burt Rutan, which won the $10 million Ansari X prize in 2004. While that might not seem a great investment, travel impresario Richard Branson is licensing the technology for his own company, Virgin Galactic, to bring tourists to space. Allen now is focusing on Stratolaunch. But some observers question the limits of what Stratolaunch will be able to do. Its Orbital Sciences-supplied solid-fuel rocket will be able to carry 15,000 pounds to low Earth orbit. But this is about half the lift of the competing SpaceX Falcon 9 and just 30 percent that of a Boeing-built Delta IV. Stratolaunch will be able to orbit only smaller satellites. "I think the idea of Stratolaunch is they're kind of looking for a low-cost way to launch satellites into low Earth orbit," said Warren Ferster, editor of Space News, published in Washington, D.C. "With Stratolaunch, I'll believe it when I see it." Meanwhile Orbital Sciences competitor SpaceX is opening a facility in Washington state, while CEO Elon Musk pursues his own vision for low-cost lift to orbit. A key to that will be whether or not SpaceX can land a first-stage booster on an offshore platform and re-use it, a technology that it has not yet perfected. http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2015/02/17/paul-allens-mammoth- stratolaunch-aircraft-nearly.html?page=2 Back to Top Announcing the EAAP Courses in Human Factors for 2015 The European Association for Aviation Psychology (EAAP) training courses in "Human Factors in Flight Safety: Safety Management Systems (SMS), Risk Management and Safety Investigation" will be conducted in Dubai and Barcelona, in May 2015. In addition to these courses, a new Advanced Course "Human Factors in Aviation Safety: an Integrated Approach to Safety Management" will also be conducted in Barcelona, in May 2015. Registrations are now open for these popular and internationally respected courses, to be held from: 10 - 14 May 2015, in Dubai, hosted by Emirates, and, 18 - 22 May 2015, in Barcelona, hosted by Vueling. 26 - 30 May 2015, in Barcelona, the new Advanced Course, hosted by Vueling. Full details on the 2015 EAAP courses are included in the Registration Brochures for both the Dubai and Barcelona courses, which are now available for download from the EAAP website at: http://www.eaap.net/courses.html The experienced team of Dr Rob Lee, Kristina Pollack and Brent Hayward will again be conducting the 2015 courses on behalf of EAAP. The first of these courses was conducted at Ispra, Italy in 1999. Since then, the course has been continually updated in asccordance with ongoing changes in the aviation industry, and held regularly, in locations including Luxembourg, Stockholm, Madrid, Lisbon, Interlaken, Dublin and Dubai, with a total of more than 350 participants from civil and military aviation attending, as well as personnel from other high technology industries. In 2015, a new Advanced Course will be introduced. It will be a leading edge course based on current and future developments in human factors in safety management in civil and military aviation. The Advanced Course will cover some topics from Human Factors in Flight Safety, SMS, Risk Management and Safety Investigation in greater depth, as well as including new material not in the present course The courses are recognised by EAAP as contributing towards certification requirements for those wishing to become an EAAP-certified Aviation Psychologist or Human Factors Specialist. As detailed in the Registration Brochure, EAAP members are offered reduced registration fees for the course, and there is also a significant additional "Early Bird" discount for those who register early. Course participant numbers are limited, so those wishing to attend are encouraged to register as soon as possible to secure a place. Those with any questions about the courses, please email Brent Hayward: bhayward@dedale.net Back to Top 2015 Southeast Regional Chapter of ISASI's annual meeting Back to Top Embry-Riddle Professional Programs Offers Certificate of Management in Aviation Safety for Spring 2015 DAYTONA BEACH, Fla., Feb. 4, 2015 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- As part of Embry- Riddle's commitment to continuing professional education and lifelong learning, the university is hosting a variety of aviation-focused short courses and seminars at the Daytona Beach and Prescott Campuses. These industry-focused courses are designed for aviation professionals involved in the operation, management and supervision of aerospace organizations. Certificate of Management in Aviation Safety Short-Courses The certificate requires completion of three five-day courses in Occupational Safety & Health and Aviation Ground Safety, Aviation Safety Program Management & Aircraft Accident Investigation and Management (Basic or Advanced). This series of courses can be completed independently or as part of the Certificate of Management in Aviation Safety; discounts are available for multiple course selection. April 13-17 OSHA & Aviation Ground Safety, Daytona Beach, Fla. This course gives the participant working knowledge of OSHA's General Industry Safety and Health standards. Participants will also receive the OSHA 30-Hour General Industry Safety & Health Card. April 20-24 Aviation Safety Program Management, Daytona Beach, Fla. Participants will gain working knowledge of the development and management of an effective safety program, including economics of safety; risk management; regulatory safety and health programs; safety analysis techniques; and safety management systems. April 27 to May 1 Aircraft Accident Investigation and Management, Daytona Beach, Fla. This course will teach the fundamentals required to conduct or manage an aircraft mishap/accident investigation. Participants will review the investigation sequence from the preplanning stage through the general survey and specific analysis of a mishap/accident, culminating with the determination of contributing factors and probable cause/s. May 4-8 Advanced Aircraft Accident Investigation, Prescott, Ariz. This course is designed to introduce the participant to advanced accident investigation procedures involving design, materials and aircraft performance. This comprehensive course is a follow-on course for the aircraft accident investigation course or for an individual who has experience in accident investigation. Extensive use will be made of the Robertson Crash Lab, one of the most complete facilities of its kind in the United States. For detailed course descriptions, fees and dates, and to register online, contact Sarah Ochs, Director of Professional Programs, at (386) 226-6928 or case@erau.edu. About Professional and Corporate Education at Embry-Riddle Facilitated by industry leaders from around the globe, the curriculum at Embry-Riddle covers the operation, engineering, research, manufacturing, marketing and management of modern aircraft and the systems that support them. SOURCE Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University RELATED LINKS http://www.erau.edu Back to Top Upcoming Events: Fundamentals of IS-BAO March 5, 2015 HAI Heli-Expo - Orlando, FL USA https://www.regonline.com/builder/site/Default.aspx?eventid=1628315 IS-BAO Auditing March 6, 2015 HAI Heli-Expo - Orlando, FL USA https://www.regonline.com/builder/site/Default.aspx?eventid=1628316 Fundamentals of IS-BAO March 31, 2015 Houston, TX USA https://www.regonline.com/builder/site/Default.aspx?eventid=1657515 IS-BAO Auditing April 1, 2015 Houston, TX USA https://www.regonline.com/builder/site/Default.aspx?eventid=1657517 Fundamentals of IS-BAO April 15, 2015 Toluca, Mexico https://www.regonline.com/builder/site/Default.aspx?eventid=1657510 IS-BAO Auditing April 16, 2015 Toluca, Mexico https://www.regonline.com/builder/site/Default.aspx?eventid=1657512 Air Charter Safety Foundation (ACSF) NTSB Training Center, Ashburn, VA March 10-11, 2015 www.acsf.aero/symposium ERAU NextGen 101 Seminar April 21-22, 2015. Washington D.C. http://proed.erau.edu/programs/specialized-industry-training/nextgen-101- seminar/index.html FAA Helicopter Safety Effort three-day safety forum April 21-23, 2015 Hurst, Texas eugene.trainor@faa.gov www.faahelisafety.org ERAU OSHA & Aviation Ground Safety Seminar Daytona Beach, FL Apr.13-17, 2015 www.erau.edu/cmas ERAU Aviation Safety Program Management Seminar Daytona Beach, FL Apr.20-24, 2015 www.erau.edu/cmas ERAU Aircraft Accident Investigation Seminar Daytona Beach, FL Apr. 27-May 1, 2015 www.erau.edu/cmas ERAU Advanced Aircraft Accident Investigation Seminar Prescott Campus, AZ May 4-8, 2015 www.erau.edu/cmas ERAU Aviation SMS Seminar Daytona Beach, FL May 12-14, 2015 www.erau.edu/sms Curt Lewis