Flight Safety Information October 28, 2015 - No. 214 In This Issue Laser hits Lindbergh-bound plane; pilot taken to hospital Danish F-16 Jet Fighter Crashes in North Sea, Pilot Safe US-China agree: No rude gestures by fighter pilots Support For Pilots With Mental Health Problems More Helpful In Reducing Suicide Risks F-16s Are Engineered With Auto-Ground Collision Avoidance Systems 'A Boom and Sparks': Drone Crash Downs Electrical Line in California, Hundreds Lost Power Safety first: Hong Kong's HK$575m new air traffic control system yet to prove reliability FAA Is Doing Nothing About Continued Boeing Dreamliner Battery Failures PROS 2015 TRAINING Stop By and Visit At NBAA - Booth N812 Northrop beats Boeing for crucial Pentagon bomber contract Delta Air Lines to Leave Airline Trade Group IATA Study Finds You Can't Run an Airline on Happy Passengers Alone SAVE THE DATE...ISASI-2016 GRADUATE RESEARCH SURVEY REQUEST (1) Upcoming Events JOBS AVAILABLE (New Positions) Laser hits Lindbergh-bound plane; pilot taken to hospital SAN DIEGO - An American Airlines plane was hit by a green laser on approach to San Diego Tuesday night, and one of the pilots was transported to a hospital, an airport authority spokeswoman said. Lindbergh Field air traffic control told San Diego police that the laser strike occurred four to five miles southwest of the airport, police Officer Dino Delimitros said. It was reported about 9:15 p.m. Airport authority spokeswoman Lauren Bernsen said she could not say whether the pilot was injured or was transported to a hospital as a precaution. That information has to come from the airline, she said. It was not disclosed whether the person transported was the pilot or co-pilot on Flight 553, which was coming from Phoenix. The plane landed without incident, Bernsen said. The crew had been scheduled to work an outgoing flight, but that plan was canceled, she said. Law-enforcement officials are notified when an airplane crew radios in about a laser, but federal aviation officials have acknowledged that finding a suspect or suspects is difficult. It was the second such incident reported locally in a month. On Sept. 30, a SkyWest plane heading to San Diego was hit with a laser flash about 11:50 p.m. about 10 miles east of the airport. The plane was coming from Los Angeles. http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2015/oct/27/american-airlines-plane-hit-by-green-laser/ Back to Top Danish F-16 Jet Fighter Crashes in North Sea, Pilot Safe The Danish military says an air force F-16 fighter jet crashed in the North Sea off western Denmark. The military says the pilot ejected safely under "controlled circumstances" and was picked up at sea by a helicopter. The civilian Accident Investigation Board said Wednesday it is investigating the cause of Tuesday's crash off the island of Fanoe. The jet fighter was on a training flight when the pilot reported technical troubles. The pilot then emptied the jet fighter's fuel tanks over the North Sea before ejecting. Denmark is expected to announce later this year what type of jet fighters will replace the Scandinavian NATO-member's aging fleet of F-16s. Until recently, Denmark had seven F-16 fighter jets in the international coalition combating the Islamic State extremist group. http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/danish-16-jet-fighter-crashes-north-sea-pilot-34786170 Back to Top US-China agree: No rude gestures by fighter pilots To prevent a military escalation, China and the US have agreed to be more civil when their military pilots meet in mid-air. In the sometimes-testy rivalry between Washington and Beijing, good manners count. A recent amendment to a U.S.-China accord on safe encounters between their military pilots calls for keeping a secure distance, communicating clearly and keeping a lid on rude body language. "Military aircrew should refrain from the use of uncivil language or unfriendly physical gestures," says the third amendment to the safety memorandum. The stipulation shows the degree to which the two sides hope to avoid unintended events, although there's no evidence that insulting behavior has been a factor in any recent encounters. Recommended: Asia's troubled waters: What's going on in the South China Sea? Take our quiz. It comes as the two countries see themselves operating in ever closer contact, a consequence of China's robust assertions of its South China Sea maritime claims and a renewed U.S. focus on Asia that will see 60 percent of the Navy fleet assigned to the region. The amendment was signed shortly before a state visit last month to Washington by Chinese President Xi Jinping, who has exerted stronger control over the armed forces than any of his predecessors since Deng Xiaoping in the late 1980s. That came on the heels of a Sept. 15 incident in which two Chinese fighter-bombers made what the U.S. Pacific Command described as an unsafe interception of a U.S. Air Force RC-135 surveillance plane patrolling about 80 miles (130 kilometers) off the Chinese coast. Previously, a Chinese fighter jet executed a barrel-roll as it came within 9 meters (30 feet) of a U.S. Navy P-8 Poseidon surveillance plane over the South China Sea in August 2014. In the most serious such incident, aircraft from the two countries collided over the South China Sea in 2001, killing a Chinese jet fighter pilot and forcing a heavily damaged U.S. EP-3 surveillance plane to land at a Chinese base. China interrogated and detained the 24 crew members for more than a week, sparking the biggest crisis in bilateral relations in more than a decade. In that case, the lost Chinese pilot, Wang Wei, had previously flown close enough to U.S. aircraft for their crew to see his e-mail address written on a piece of paper held up inside his cockpit. Within the Chinese military's "environment of bravado," the actions of rogue pilots can be hard to rein in, said Denny Roy, an expert on the Chinese military at the East-West Center in Hawaii. However, by signing the memorandum and its annexes, China wants to indicate to the U.S. that aggressive challenges in the air are not necessarily national policy, Roy said. "It's a positive step in bilateral relations because it indicates a Chinese interest in stability and in advancing military-to-military relations," Roy said. Tensions have also risen over China's declaration of an air-defense identification zone over disputed islands in the East China Sea in 2013. The U.S., Japan and others have refused to recognize the move because the area encompassed by the zone includes territory controlled by Japan. China has so far made little effort at enforcing it. Meanwhile, the South China Sea remains the area of greatest contention, with China upping the ante by building artificial islands on top of reefs and atolls it controls topped with buildings and airstrips. Pacific Fleet Commander Adm. Scott Swift, the U.S. Navy's top commander in the Pacific, said last week his sailors were prepared to patrol within the 12-nautical mile (21-kilometers) territorial limit of the newly constructed islands. That move would reinforce Washington's refusal to recognize them as sovereign territory and assert its right to freedom of navigation. Swift said the new amendments were potentially more significant than a formal Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea signed by China, the U.S. and others last year. "I'm more concerned in the air perspective because it's much more dynamic," Swift said in an interview with The Associated Press. China's Defense Ministry welcomed the signing, with spokesman Wu Qian praising it as "of positive significance to enhancing strategic mutual trust, and avoiding misunderstanding and miscalculation." Analysts differ, however, on how far it will go toward reducing mutual suspicion. While the memorandum reflects Xi's control over the military, its effect on overall relations shouldn't be overestimated, said Bonnie Glaser, senior adviser for Asia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. "Xi doesn't want an accidental collision on his watch," Glaser said. "I think the memorandum on safety in the air and at sea can create greater predictability, but it is not likely to build trust." http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Military/2015/1026/US-China-agree-No-rude-gestures-by-fighter-pilots Back to Top Support For Pilots With Mental Health Problems More Helpful In Reducing Suicide Risks Than Two In Cockpit Requirement: Experts Requiring two persons to stay in the cockpit at all times does not necessarily reduce suicide risks among pilots. Experts said pilots with mental health problems may be helped better if more psychological support is given to them. To decrease suicide risks, experts said more support for pilots with mental health conditions should be employed, rather than necessitating the presence of two pilots in the cockpit during flights. Authorities from the European aviation safety group required two people to be present in the cockpit at all times to halt the risk of pilot suicide. The mandate came after Germanwings A320 crashed in a French mountainside on Mar. 24, 2015, due to the possible deliberate action of co-pilot Andreas Lubitz. The fatal crash killed 150 people onboard. Later, investigations revealed that Lubitz underwent depression, researched suicide methods and did not revealed his condition to his employer. On Tuesday, Oct. 27, experts at an aviation safety meeting said that requiring two persons to stay in the cockpit at all times will not automatically help and the mandate had been announced too quickly, without looking at possible further trainings for cabin staff. Robert Bor, a consultant psychologist at the Royal Free Hospital said that in past events of crashes, which cause was thought to be pilot suicide, the second person was not always able to take charge of the controls from his/ her colleague. Philip Baum, managing director at security training company Green Light Ltd said that the move signifies a severe lack of judgement from an industry that is expected to come up with advanced strategies based on common sense. In July 2015, a European task force suggested other interventions to prevent suicide crashes. Among the recommendations made were to enhance psychological assessment for new pilots, involving a databank that contains detailed information about checkups, and better support networks. Bor also said that mental health problems should be associated with less stigma and the industry should be more open about the topic and promote a culture of acceptance during problem reporting. Aside from mental health illnesses, other psychological problems such as anxiety, relationship, sleep and financial burdens must not be looked in a shameful light. "Pilots are not naive to their own mental stresses," said Bor. "They need to be part of the effort to make the skies safer." http://www.techtimes.com/articles/100356/20151028/support-for-pilots-with-mental-health-problems- more-helpful-in-reducing-suicide-risks-than-two-in-cockpit-requirement-experts.htm Back to Top F-16s Are Engineered With Auto-Ground Collision Avoidance Systems The Technology is Already Saving Fighter Pilots and F-16 Aircraft An Air Force collision-avoidance technology is already saving fighter pilots' lives by re-directing F-16s on a crash course with the ground in order to avert a crash impact, service leaders told Scout Warrior. Auto-Ground Collision Avoidance System, now installed on digital F-16 fighters, uses computer algorithms to take over an aircraft's flight trajectory and change a potential collision course with the ground or nearby terrain. The technology is already saving pilots lives and saving airplanes, senior Air Force officials told Scout Warrior. "The vast majority of aircraft that we have lost have been due to a ground collision with the pilot flying the airplane into the ground due to task saturation or flying low level and losing situational awareness" Lt. Gen. Arnold Bunch, Military Deputy for Acquisition, told Scout Warrior in an interview. Collisions with terrain can also happen if the fighter jet is pulling so many G's that the pilot loses consciousness, Bunch explained. "With this technology there is now a chance that the pilot can regain consciousness and become situationally aware and prevent flying that airplane into the ground," he added. The technology calculates where the aircraft is and where it would hit the ground based upon the way it is flying at the time, Bunch said. If the fighter jet is flying toward a potential collision with the ground, the on-board computer system will override the flight path and pull the aircraft away from the ground. "We've already had examples of aircraft that would have been lost and the individuals and aircraft that we would have lost had we not invested in this. Now we are trying to share this technology to get it into other platforms," he added. The aircraft is now integrated onto digital F-16s and the Air Force is exploring ways to put the system onto other fighter jets and aircraft. "Losing an aircraft is big -- but even bigger is losing a pilot and having to deal with the loss of what I believe is our most valuable treasure, the men and women who operate those things in combat," Bunch explained. Hoping to build upon the progress of the successful auto-ground collision avoidance Technology, Air Force engineers are in the early stages of working on an Auto-Air Collision avoidance system which would, for example, prevent two maneuvering super-fast fighter jets from colliding with one-another in mid-air. "This is a much more complicated engineering and technology feat because now I have three dimensions that are playing at the same time in two separate vehicles. That is in the early stages of development but we have demonstrated some stuff already so that is something we will keep our eye on in the future," Bunch said. http://www.scout.com/military/warrior/story/1604102-af-collision-avoidance-saves-fighter-pilots Back to Top 'A Boom and Sparks': Drone Crash Downs Electrical Line in California, Hundreds Lost Power Over 600 people were temporarily without power in California after a hobbyist drone flew into an electrical line Monday afternoon. The incident affected 647 Southern California Edison customers in West Hollywood, according to KABC-TV. Local authorities received many 911 calls regarding the unmanned aerial vehicle flying into and downing a power line. "All the sudden you just see a flash, like a boom and sparks, and you could see the drone dropping to the ground," KABC producer Chris Gordon, who witnessed the incident, said. Power was restored within a few hours, according to KABC. Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department Lt. Edward Ramirez told the L.A. Times this is the first time he's heard of a drone flying into a power line, but, overall, other objects doing just that are not unusual. "We're accustomed to a variety of items in the line - from small animals to big animals ... mylar balloons. It's always an area of concern," Villegas told the newspaper. According to the Times, authorities were still searching for the drone's operator. Earlier this month, the Federal Aviation Administration announced that it is in the process of establishing a required drone registration system. FAA chief Michel Huerta said last week that recent reports of drone sightings from airplane pilots have been "troubling." The FAA believes registration will help them identify operators of UAVs when they break the law. "When they don't fly safely, they'll know there will be consequences," Huerta said. In other drone news, prison officials at the Oklahoma State Penitentiary are investigating after a drone carrying drugs, hacksaw blades and a cellphone was found crashed on the prison grounds this week. Oklahoma Department of Corrections Director Robert Patton said staff at the prison discovered the drone Monday morning after it apparently crashed after clipping some razor wire. A package connected to the drone with fishing wire contained 5 ounces of marijuana, two hacksaw blades, a cellphone and accessories, cigarettes, cigars, glue, methamphetamines and heroin. Patton said the agency has notified officials at other prisons to be on the lookout for similar efforts to smuggle contraband. The Oklahoma State Penitentiary at McAlester houses some of the state's most violent and dangerous offenders, including Oklahoma's death row. http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2015/10/28/a-boom-and-sparks-drone-crash-downs-electrical-line-in- california-hundreds-lost-power/ Back to Top Safety first: Hong Kong's HK$575m new air traffic control system yet to prove reliability despite three-year delay An overseas consultant will advise on the safety and reliability of the system before it is fully operational. Photo: Nora Tam Hong Kong's under-fire new air traffic control system will not go into operation until it is proven safe and reliable, the government has announced. At a Legislative Council meeting this morning, Chief Secretary Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor told lawmakers she accepted the Legco public accounts committee's (PAC) earlier criticisms of air traffic control services operated by the Civil Aviation Department. At the centre of the controversy, the existing radar system should have been retired in December 2012 due to "limited functionalities and capacity" but air traffic controllers continue to use it. But experts and department insiders deem the new system unreliable. During a test run last year, controllers lost tracking of aircraft for 10 seconds. Subsequent tests in July showed a "catastrophic failure" of the system as it failed to respond to testing by inspectors. Lam said a much-delayed new air traffic management system "will not go into operation until it is proved safe and reliable." The Housing and Transport Bureau will draft in an overseas consultant to advise on the safety and reliability of the system before it is fully operational. The consultant will advise Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung Bing-leung directly. Britain's National Air Traffic Services is thought to be a leading contender for the role due to its previous relationship with the aviation regulator advising on Hong Kong International Airport's third runway system. The new system, delayed since 2012, is expected to come into operation in the first half of next year, Lam added. She also said the government is considering expanding the establishment of the department and allocating more resources to it due to the expansion of the airport and the aviation industry. Earlier this year, the public accounts committee concluded its investigation into earlier reports by the Audit Commission, which said the director general of civil aviation, Norman Lo Shung-man, had failed in his responsibility with oversight of commissioning the new radar system. "The committee is gravely concerned that air safety might have been or will be seriously compromised" because the existing system should have been retired in 2012, lawmakers said in June. Adding to the controversy is the cost of the new system. It originally cost HK$486 million. But the department later decided that further enhancements were needed, raising the cost to HK$575.2 million. http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/economy/article/1873158/safety-first-hong-kongs-hk575m-new- air-traffic-control-system Back to Top FAA Is Doing Nothing About Continued Boeing Dreamliner Battery Failures By: Christine Negroni In 2013, the troubled Boeing 787 Dreamliner was grounded for nearly four months because the plane's lithium-ion batteries caught fire. It's had at least three more cell failures since the plane was allowed to resume flying. While the Federal Aviation Administration dismisses these new failures, the fact that these battery malfunctions continue to happen is a big deal. No other lithium-ion battery in service shows failure rates this high. Failures in these batteries typically come at a rate of one in five million. But the Dreamliner lithium-ions are failing at a shockingly high rate of one in a thousand. Unreported failures In October of last year, in an event that no one reported, a Qatar Airways 787 had to make an emergency diversion. The pilots were alerted to a battery issue during flight. Qatar Airways referred questions to the FAA and NTSB, and declined to say how many travelers were on the plane. The Dreamliners can carry 254 passengers. The FAA, which was notified of the episode by Boeing, commented on the incident via spokeswoman Laura Brown: "The battery design and enclosure performed as intended by limiting and containing the failure." Boeing notified the FAA and the NTSB about the emergency landing of Qatar's 787 under a provision designed to encourage the industry to "share significant safety related information," NSTB spokesman Peter Knudson said. Neither agency conducted an investigation into the failure of the Qatar Airways battery, but the FAA allowed Boeing to assess the damage and report the results back to the agency. According to a knowledgeable source, last week a European 787 operator also had a battery release fumes and smoke into the containment box but this person did not identify the airline. The FAA's Brown would not confirm any other episodes beyond the one on Qatar Airways. "We don't consider something an 'event' if the containment box performs as designed," she said. A history of troubles Before the Dreamliner's battery problems began in January 2013, Qatar's chief executive Akbar Al Baker was critical of Boeing for what he called the 787's teething problems and unreliability. The new plane was three years late in being delivered to its customers, the first of whom were Japan Airlines and All Nippon Airways. The first battery problems were on these airlines in 2013, triggering the grounding of the fleet. The plane was only allowed to fly again after Boeing encased the batteries in a stainless steel box to make sure the power source could meet fire protection standards. After 787s were fitted with the battery housing, a Japan Airlines 787 undergoing maintenance at Tokyo's Narita Airport began emitting smoke in January of 2014. Investigators with the Japan Transportation Safety Board said overheating of cells could be expected and they were confident the plane maker's fix would work as intended. The JTSB was not notified of the failure on Qatar Airways according to JTSB's Mamoru Takahashi, who added that Boeing was not obligated to report it. Japan Airlines, All Nippon Airways and Qatar are three of the largest operators of Dreamliners. Since putting 22 of the modified 787s into service, Qatar's Al Baker has expressed confidence in Boeing and in the battery fix. Experts are concerned Jeff Dahn, a physics professor at Dalhousie University and a battery expert, says this issue should not be ignored because it means something is wrong with the cells. "Normally they will do nothing unless they are being mechanically abused or electrically abused. Since they are in the box, they are probably not being mechanically abused, so there is something going on with those cells." Another battery expert who asked not to be identified said he, too, was surprised by the frequency of the problem, considering how few of these cells are in service, 16 per airplane on about 300 787s flying. "One out of a thousand sounds high. I would categorize it as a supplier quality control problem first. It has a safety component but they are managing it by the redesign," he said. Dahn used the new Tesla electric car models, each of which has 7000 cells, as a point of comparison. "Why would you continue to use lithium-ion cells that are having trouble?" Dahn asked about Boeing. "Look at the Teslas driving around. They not having problems and there's a gazillion of them." Christine Negroni reports on aviation for The New York Times, Air & Space, ABC News, the RunwayGirlNetwork and others. She writes the blog Flying Lessons and tweets at @cnegroni http://gizmodo.com/faa-is-doing-nothing-about-continued-boeing-dreamliner-1738751945 Back to Top Back to Top Stop By and Visit At NBAA DATE Nov. 17 - 19, 2015 LOCATION Booth N812 Las Vegas Convention Center 3150 Paradise Rd. Las Vegas, NV 89109 Back to Top Northrop beats Boeing for crucial Pentagon bomber contract In a big blow to Boeing, the Pentagon has picked Northrop Grumman to design and build the new top- secret Long Range Strike Bomber for the Air Force. The decision leaves Boeing with no design or manufacturing work on the nation's next generation of fighters and bombers. The Pentagon has picked Northrop Grumman to design and build the new top-secret Long Range Strike Bomber for the U.S. Air Force, beating out a team led by Boeing for the most significant military-aircraft contract since Boeing lost the Joint Strike Fighter contract in 2001. It's a huge blow to Boeing, which has a long history of building U.S. bombers. The contract announced Tuesday is worth about $80 billion in today's dollars - about $23.5 billion for the development phase and $56.4 billion more for the production of 100 aircraft. With Boeing now shut out of design and manufacturing work on any of the nation's next-generation jet fighters and bombers, the company's ailing defense side is likely to shrink further in the years ahead. The Long Range Strike (LRS) Bomber is designed to penetrate all defenses and strike an enemy target anywhere on Earth at short notice. The first aircraft are expected to be operational in the mid-2020s. At the news conference announcing the contract winner, Defense Secretary Ash Carter said the new bomber - designed to carry both conventional and nuclear weapons - will be "the backbone of the Air Force's future strike and deterrent capabilities." The Pentagon gave few details as to why Northrop was chosen, although Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James said the decision "provides the best value for our nation." Rebecca Grant, president of defense consultancy IRIS, said that suggests Northrop offered a lower price. At Northrop and its systems suppliers, the bomber work will secure many thousands of engineering jobs over the next decade and tens of thousands of production jobs even longer. "We're ready to get to work," said Northrop Chief Executive Wes Bush in a statement. Impact on Boeing Losing the bomber means Boeing - with Lockheed Martin as its junior partner - misses out on that opportunity. Boeing's defense facilities in St. Louis, where the F/A-18 and F-15 jet-fighter assembly lines will wind down in the next few years, are likely to be hardest hit. Grant said the selection of Northrop "does cast a question over Boeing's continued production, particularly in St. Louis, and whether Boeing will stay robust in future military aircraft development." RBC Capital Markets analyst Rob Stallard in a note to clients Tuesday wrote that Boeing "now faces the difficult task of working out what to do with the military aircraft business that it bought with McDonnell Douglas. There is no large platform in the backlog to replace the C-17, F-15 and F-18." Defense analyst Loren Thompson of the Lexington Institute said that "slowly but surely the walls are closing in on Boeing's military aircraft operations in St. Louis." The contract award ends a storied Boeing bomber history that included building in Seattle almost 7,000 B- 17 Flying Fortresses for World War II and supplying the B-52s that are still part of the country's aging bomber fleet today. U.S. bombers designed or built by Boeing since World War II B-17 Flying Fortress (WWII): Boeing Plant 2 in Seattle built 6,981 B-17s. During World War II, about 30,000 workers at Plant 2 turned out as many as 16 per day. B-29 Superfortress (WWII): Boeing built 2, 756 B-29s in Renton and Wichita, Kan. B-47 Stratojet (Cold War): First swept-wing jet bomber. B-52 Stratofortress (Cold War): 76 still flying with the U.S. Air Force. B-2 "Spirit" Stealth bomber (Modern): At peak, more than 12,000 Boeing workers in Seattle built large parts of the airframe. B-17 Flying Fortress (WWII): Boeing Plant 2 in Seattle built 6,981 B-17s. During World War II, about 30,000 workers at Plant 2 turned out as many as 16 per day. B-29 Superfortress (WWII): Boeing built 2, 756 B-29s in Renton and Wichita, Kan. B-47 Stratojet (Cold War): First swept-wing jet bomber. B-52 Stratofortress (Cold War): 76 still flying with the U.S. Air Force. B-2 "Spirit" Stealth bomber (Modern): At peak, more than 12,000 Boeing workers in Seattle built large parts of the airframe. Even though Northrop was the prime contractor on the last bomber, the B-2, Boeing and this region played a huge role in manufacturing it. As a major B-2 subcontractor, Boeing built much of the jet's bat-wing airframe. At the project's peak in 1991, about 12,000 Boeing employees worked on the B-2 in Seattle. While revenue at Boeing's defense division is essentially the same as 10 years ago, at an expected $30 billion in 2015, the military side's share of total revenue has fallen from 56 percent to a projected 25 percent. Meanwhile, employment on Boeing's defense side has shrunk by a third, from more than 75,000 people to just over 50,000 today. With Boeing's pipeline of next-generation military planes including only derivatives of its passenger jets, further shrinkage now seems inevitable. After Boeing is debriefed by the Air Force, as soon as Friday, it has the option within 100 days to file a protest that could put the project on hold. Protests by losing bidders have become the norm in big defense contracts; that's how Boeing in 2011 grabbed the KC-46 air-refueling tanker award from Airbus. In a statement, Boeing expressed disappointment at the bomber decision and said it will have further discussions with the Air Force before determining next steps. "We are interested in knowing how the competition was scored in terms of price and risk," Boeing said. Some analysts have speculated that a Boeing loss could spur management to seek a major defense acquisition - with Boeing perhaps even buying Northrop to preserve its business. However, the Pentagon would likely block any such move. Defense Secretary Carter in September said he opposed further consolidation among the large defense contractors because it would reduce competition. At Boeing's investor conference in May, an analyst asked company Chairman Jim McNerney to contemplate the implications of losing the bomber contract and also a pending trainer-jet contract. McNerney responded that the defense side could remain healthy building commercial-jet derivatives such as the Air Force tanker and the Navy's P-8 submarine hunter, and also by leveraging the commercial- airplanes unit's international sales connections. "We don't have to panic," he said, while acknowledging the defense unit "would be smaller than it is today." Details classified The bomber itself remains top-secret and is likely to stay mysterious for years. In a Pentagon media briefing last week, William LaPlante, assistant secretary of the Air Force for acquisition, said the plane's capabilities and specifications will remain classified "so that adversaries can't already be trying to build defenses against it." So we don't even know what the plane will look like. However, to make it stealthy - invisible to radar - engineers are likely to create another bat-wing-style flying triangle similar to the B-2. Initially, and anytime the bomber is carrying nuclear weapons, it will have pilots aboard. The Pentagon has said it wants a built-in option to upgrade the plane's systems so it could fly unmanned in future years. Northrop is a leader in unmanned systems and has developed large unmanned surveillance aircraft such as the RQ-4 Global Hawk and the secret, stealthy RQ-180. With its corporate headquarters in Falls Church, Va., Northrop runs its aerospace unit out of Redondo Beach, Calif. Some design and manufacturing work on the bomber is likely to be done at Northrop plants in Florida and California. Defense analyst Thompsonsaid he expects final assembly of the airplane and integration of its systems will be done away from prying eyes at Air Force Plant 42 in Palmdale, Calif., the secure aircraft-manufacturing complex where Northrop assembled the B-2 bombers. Multibillion-dollar tag In last week's briefing, LaPlante said this bomber program can stick to its budget and its schedule - unlike previous programs such as the F-22 and F-35 fighters and the B-2 bomber. The Air Force originally wanted 132 B-2s, but costs ballooned, acquisition funds were cut, and in the end only 21 were built at the staggering cost of more than $2 billion apiece. Because both Northrop and the Boeing/Lockheed team have worked on their competing concepts for three years, work on the LRS is already well advanced, said LaPlante. A first flight is "not necessarily that long from now." The Pentagon said Tuesday that it has spent about $1.9 billion in the concept phase leading up to the contract award. The initial Air Force contract Northrop has won covers design and development of the bomber and then production of the first 21 aircraft. In this development phase, Northrop will be paid the costs it incurs plus an incentive fee that depends on hitting performance targets. During production, when the Pentagon says it plans to build seven or eight bombers per year, Northrop will be paid on a fixed-price basis, with an added incentive margin for meeting targets. Todd Harrison, director of defense-budget analysis at the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, issued a detailed estimate Tuesday for the total cost of the bomber program as planned, adjusted for inflation over the next 20 years when the airplane will be produced. "When the effects of inflation and other development costs are included, ... the Air Force's total program cost will likely be more than $100 billion," Harrison wrote. However, Harrison cautioned that the ultimate cost could be even higher if things don't go according to plan. "It's exceedingly rare that a major acquisition program ever comes in anywhere close to its initial cost," he said. Why a new bomber? The current active U.S. bomber fleet - only a portion of it ready to fly at short notice - consists of 161 aging aircraft: * 76 Boeing B-52s, all now more than 50 years old. * 66 Rockwell B-1Bs, the latest built in 1988. (Boeing later bought Rockwell and now provides maintenance support for these jets.) * 19 Northrop B-2 stealth bombers. Explaining the strategic need for a new bomber, Air Force Secretary James said, "The future threat will evolve through the introduction of advanced air defense systems and development of more capable surface-to-air missile systems." Lt. Gen. Arnold Bunch last week said potential adversaries have already developed new technologies aimed at keeping the U.S. military at bay. For example, the Chinese Dong Feng 21D anti-ship ballistic missile - a so-called "carrier killer" - is designed to prevent naval battle groups from coming close to Chinese waters in any conflict. "Our adversaries ... continue to evolve to make us stand off more. They try to minimize our capabilities to strike targets," said Bunch. The LRS bomber - able to evade the newest defenses through advances in stealth technology, and capable of striking both highly mobile and deeply buried targets - will provide anew "the option to strike any target, any time," he said. Defense Secretary Carter said that "over the past century, no nation has used air power to accomplish its global reach - to compress time and space - like the United States. Today, it's vital to innovate and reinvest ... (to) allow America's military to be dominant in the second aerospace century." To keep production costs down to $564 million per airplane, the contending defense contractors were directed to use existing, mature technologies for communications and sensor systems, stealth and weapons on the new plane. Nonetheless, LaPlante said, the new bomber could include "something that is incredible, something that the public doesn't even know about." http://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/northrop-beats-boeing-for-crucial-pentagon- bomber-contract/ Back to Top Delta Air Lines to Leave Airline Trade Group Carrier intends to drop out of Airlines for America in April Delta Air Lines Inc. said Tuesday it intends to pull out of Airlines for America, the leading U.S. carrier trade association, in April. The move, which will save Delta $5 million in annual dues, will free up the carrier to find "a more efficient way of communicating in Washington" on issues important to Delta, its customers and employees, the company said in a statement. Airlines for America said the move wasn't unexpected because Delta "has not been aligned with other... members on a few key industry positions, including the need to modernize and improve the nation's air- traffic control system," said association CEO Nick Calio. Delta's departure will reduce the trade group's airline membership to nine big airlines, including three cargo carriers. Left among the passenger airlines will be American Airlines Group Inc., United Continental Holdings Inc., Southwest Airlines Co., Alaska Air Group Inc., JetBlue Airlines Corp. and Hawaiian Holdings Inc.'s Hawaiian Airlines. The loss of Delta, the third-largest passenger carrier by traffic, could weaken the group's lobbying efforts. Doug Parker, CEO of American and the current chairman of the trade association's board of directors, said the group has been and will continue to be more effective as an industry advocate "with a unified voice in Washington," Mr. Parker said in a statement. Other issues the association is working on are fighting higher taxes on airlines and unnecessary regulations, while pushing for updated infrastructure and modernizing the nation's air-navigation system. Delta Chief Executive Richard Anderson, who served as chairman of the trade association for the first two years of Mr. Calio's tenure, recently stopped attending meetings of the group's board, although other Delta employees still serve on number of trade group councils and committees. Mr. Anderson, chief of the Atlanta-based airline since 2007, isn't shy about taking a contrarian view. Delta is the only leading U.S. airline to pick a fight with the U.S. Export-Import Bank for offering loan guarantees on Boeing Co. aircraft to well-heeled foreign carriers. The export bank, whose mandate wasn't extended earlier this year, currently is fighting for its life in the budget battle playing out in Congress. Mr. Anderson also lead the charge, later joined by American and United, against three large Persian Gulf airlines. The three U.S. carriers want the U.S. government to curtail the Gulf trio's access to the U.S. on the grounds they are highly subsidized by their government owners, assertions the Gulf carriers deny. The U.S. position has led to conflict within the trade association, with JetBlue, Alaska and the cargo carriers decrying what they fear is protectionism on the part of the largest three members. The other U.S. carriers also fear retaliation by the Gulf airlines, with whom some of them have close ties. And the Delta CEO has said numerous times this year that he doesn't believe a privatization or corporatization of the nation's air-traffic control system is a good idea. Many other U.S. airlines think the government should take air-navigation activities out of the Federal Aviation Administration and put it into a federal corporation, a public-private partnership or a nonprofit company. More than two dozen foreign countries have made that move. U.S. advocates believe the FAA's big air-traffic-control modernization program would roll out faster and surer under privatized authority. Mr. Anderson has said he thinks the FAA is doing a good job, and he recently assumed the leadership role of an influential committee that advises the FAA on that modernization effort. http://www.wsj.com/articles/delta-air-lines-to-leave-airline-trade-group-1445982216 Back to Top IATA Study Finds You Can't Run an Airline on Happy Passengers Alone Passengers are more likely to feel disappointed when they don't have a perk like this lie-flat bed than they are to feel happy when they do have it. Conversations with founders and CEOs on building the travel company of the future. Passengers like to have nice cabin environments, but they don't seem willing to reward airlines for offering them. It would appear, most often, that passengers choose airlines based on affordable fares and convenient routes. As IATA's Tony Tyler said, you get what you pay for. Happy customers alone don't make airlines profitable, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has found. During a special session on Cabin Trends during the recent IATA World Passenger Summit in Hamburg, Tim Jasper Schaff, Director Marketing and Sales for IATA, presented the results of a comprehensive passenger study, but could not prove any correlation between making passengers happy and keeping airlines in business. The study looked at 75 individual passenger experience factors which influence passenger satisfaction, from crew, to services and products. It was based on a survey of 60,000 passengers at 30 major participating airlines in 39 hubs around the world, separated by market and by business or leisure passengers. "Initially we thought this presentation may also include a link between passenger satisfaction and commercial success," Schaff told attendees. "There is academic evidence, across various industries, where they found strong links that if your customers are happy, you'll be successful. You can measure that, by share price and so on." Based on the assumption that the same would prove true for airlines, the group studied financial data from its chief economist, looking at a span of four years of data, to identify the degree to which satisfied passengers made airlines profitable. "We saw there is no link," Schaaf said. "We saw that airlines from certain regions were commercially more successful, where maybe, based on passenger satisfaction, on average, they may not have been so successful. But there were other things happening in the region, such as consolidation, that probably allowed them to be commercially successful. We couldn't really prove that if your customers are happy you'll be a commercially successfully airline." Part of the problem for airlines is that the bar is always being raised. "The significance of [cabin] attributes moves all the time," Schaaf said. "For example, flat bed in business class. If you had that 10 or 15 years ago, it was clearly causing passenger satisfaction and people were happy. Now they take it for granted. If you don't have it, people will be unhappy. It has moved from driving passenger satisfaction to driving passenger dissatisfaction. It's a given. Probably we will see similar effects for onboard Wi-Fi, etc. When it's innovation, when it's first introduced, it's a wow factor. Then it's taken for granted, and if you don't offer it you're in trouble. Some people would call it the spiral of spoilage going on in our industry." Because airlines must invest millions in cabin products-and have a long lead-time from development to delivery-news that all that work and investment may not result in happy customers is bad enough. Learning that it cannot then be correlated to financial success would appear to justify the strategy of ultra- low-cost and low-cost carriers, which design their cabin products around optimum equipment utilization. Indeed, many full-service airlines have balanced their investments in cabin product for customer appeal, with strategies that yield better profits. Slimline seats which weigh less and use less fuel, increased cabin density in the Economy cabin, and converting many items previously included in the basic package to ancillary sales, such as with food and beverage service, are just some examples of how airlines are adapting to the low-return on investment for improved passenger experience products. "You can look at it the other way around: that it doesn't matter whether your customers are happy," Schaaf said. "That's not the message, but we couldn't really prove this strongly." The study did find a correlation between strong branding and passenger satisfaction with product. Even on like-to-like product, airlines may generate more passenger satisfaction by developing strong brands. http://skift.com/2015/10/28/iata-study-finds-you-cant-run-an-airline-on-happy-passengers-alone/ Back to Top SAVE THE DATE ISASI is pleased to announce that our 2016 seminar will be held in Reykjavik, Iceland from October 17 - 20, 2016 The theme for the seminar is "Every Link is Important" Details for the hotel, technical program, including the Call for Papers, companion program, and social events will be available on the ISASI web site in the near future We look forward to seeing you all next October Back to Top GRADUATE RESEARCH SURVEY REQUEST I am a Senior First Officer with British Airways (BA), based at London, Heathrow flying the B777. I have been with BA for 15 years and have been flying the 777 for 6 years. Before that I was flying the 747-400. Prior to BA I flew the 747-400 with Virgin Atlantic, B757s and B767s with UK charter airline 'Airtours' (now part of Thomas Cook) and my professional flying career started as a manufacturer's pilot - flying Jetstream turboprops for British Aerospace. Before flying commercially, I worked with British Aerospace within the Technical Sales discipline and was, in my leisure time, involved with general aviation as an flying instructor. I am completing a Master's degree (MSc) in Air Transport Management with City University London and the final piece of that jigsaw is a project/dissertation and I have chosen the subject of 'Ice Crystal Icing'. Rather than the complex aero/thermodynamic concepts involved, I am exploring the operational and training challenges that airline flight crews face with this phenomenon. This qualification is not being sponsored by my employer; I have undertaken to finance it myself - the rationale being that as I intend to retire from airline flying in 5 years from now that new aviation challenges may become available to me based on this contemporary qualification and my aviation background (that is the plan any way!) the survey link follows https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/ice-crystal-icing Sincere thanks, Mike Skelhorn Back to Top Upcoming Events: Fundamentals of IS-BAO November 2, 2015 Hong Kong, China https://www.regonline.com/builder/site/Default.aspx?eventid=1724162 IS-BAO Auditing November 3, 2015 Hong Kong, China https://www.regonline.com/builder/site/Default.aspx?eventid=1724176 BARS Auditor Training Washington DC? Tuesday-Thursday 5-7 April http://flightsafety.org/bars/auditor-training Aircraft Accident Investigation Training Course (ERAU) Nov. 2-6, 2015 Daytona Beach, FL www.erau.edu/cmas Air Cargo Safety and Security Symposium ALPA Washington, DC November 5, 2015 http://aircargoconference.alpa.org Aviation Safety Management Systems (SMS) Seminar (ERAU) Nov. 17-19, 2015 Daytona Beach, FL www.erau.edu/sms Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Seminar (ERAU) Dec. 8-10, 2015 Daytona Beach, FL www.erau.edu/uas New HFACS workshop Las Vegas December 15 & 16 www.hfacs.com 2016 DTI SMS/QA Symposium January 3, 4, & 5 2016 Disney World, FL 1-866-870-5490 www.dtiatlanta.com Back to Top JOBS AVAILABLE: Interdisciplinary Engineer (Mechanical or Aerospace Engineer) NTSB https://www.usajobs.gov/GetJob/ViewDetails/419032300 Human Performance Investigator NTSB https://www.usajobs.gov/GetJob/ViewDetails/413256600 Curt Lewis