Flight Safety Information 
June 29, 2016  -  No. 127

In This Issue 
The Next Chapter For 'Father' Of EGPWS 
Deadly Suicide Bombings Hit Istanbul's Ataturk Airport 
The Istanbul airport attacks will test Turkish Airlines' global ambitions 
France Sends Fixed EgyptAir Black Box to Cairo 
Govt figures show 35 near-miss aircraft incidents in 12 months (India) 
India Adopts Long-Awaited National Aviation Policy 
Hong Kong Civil Aviation Dept. launches investigation after plane narrowly misses Big Buddha 
UAE to hold technical aviation talks with the US government next month 
Shrinking Pool of Future Pilots Keeps Major Airlines on Edge 
NetJets boosts options for Cessna Latitude, to receive first jet 
China just flew its first passenger jet - and it's a clunker 

The Next Chapter For 'Father' Of EGPWS 
 
Last call for Honeywell's colorful chief safety technologist 
 
  
Being Bateman  
 
Actors and musicians may not like being typecast, but C. Don Bateman doesn't mind it so much. 
Despite holding hundreds of international and about 50 U.S. patents on a variety of devices, he'll forever 
be noted for being the "Father" of just one-the Enhanced Ground Proximity Warning System (EGPWS), the 
nearly ubiquitous onboard alerting system famous for its canned "Terrain! Terrain! Pull Up! Pull Up!" shout 
out. 
 
"EGPWS is probably the highlight [of my career]," admits Bateman, who retired from Honeywell as a chief 
engineer-technologist and corporate fellow in June after nearly 60 years in the aviation safety business. 
Much of that time was spent trying to keep "airliners out of the dirt and the water." 
 
By all accounts, he has been very successful. According to the most recent global safety statistics from the 
International Air Transport Association (IATA), "2015 saw an all-time low" for controlled flight into terrain 
(CFIT) incidents-one accident-the scenario EGPWS and its predecessor, the ground proximity warning 
system (GPWS), were designed to counter. 
 
Bateman first developed GPWS in the late 1960s when working for Sundstrand Corp., which later became 
Honeywell. In the mid-1960s, there were an average of 1.5 CFIT accidents per 1 million departures, 
resulting in one crash for every 660,000 flights, according to the International Civil Aviation Organization 
(ICAO). 
 
In its 2015 safety report, IATA notes that the average CFIT rate over the past 10 years was approximately 
0.15 accidents per million flights-the equivalent of one crash for every 6.6 million flights-the vast majority 
of which involved turboprop aircraft. IATA stresses that CFIT crashes are occurring "mainly in areas of the 
world where the use of the terrain awareness and warning system (TAWS) is not mandatory." TAWS' 
reliability is also linked to the freshness of the internal terrain databases (and software when upgrades are 
available), so IATA is also asking aviation authorities to consider mandating the updates. 
 
The FAA was the first regulator to mandate equipage, in 1974, and ICAO followed up with standards and 
recommended practices in 1978. The letter "E" preceded GPWS in 1996 when Honeywell added look-ahead 
capability to increase the time between warning and collision with terrain. Along the way, EGPWS became 
generically known as TAWS, and several companies began to offer the tools. 
 
Always the gentleman, Bateman spreads the credit for EGPWS around. "Nothing's done by one person 
anymore," he says. "It takes a lot of support and help from the airframers, airlines and even the press." 
That support includes his "mavericks," a half-dozen R&D safety engineers and scientists based in 
Redmond, Washington. 
 
While Honeywell is shuttering its nearby flight-test center at Paine Field and moving three flight-test 
aircraft (a King Air C90, Sabreliner and Convair 580) and associated employees to Phoenix, Bateman says 
his mavericks will "continue working as a team" and reporting to the Phoenix headquarters.  
 
Over the years, he and his team have incorporated many safety enhancements into the cockpit using 
EGPWS as the foundation "because it has so many signals coming to it," says Bateman. Included are the 
runway awareness and advisory system (to help pilots use the correct runway) and the stable approach 
monitor (to help pilots decide whether to abort a landing). 
 
After Honeywell, Bateman plans to become a consultant, spend more time with his family, write a memoir 
and perhaps become an expert witness. 
 
The conversation becomes more interesting when Bateman waxes philosophic, free of corporate strings. 
 
On the state of affairs in aviation safety now: "When you used to get in airplanes as a passenger, you'd 
say, 'I hope this aircraft gets there safely.' Now we don't even think about it; it's a real struggle to get 
people to read the safety card." 
 
On airline operating costs: "There's a lot to be done. Fuel is one thing, but we bang up airplanes too much 
on the ground with other airplanes and vehicles. That's where we need to work. My little team came up 
with a circle around the airplane. We were thinking of hosting wingtip detection in the EGPWS, driving a 
display. Another Honeywell team is also looking at putting radar on the airplane and looking at quadrants. 
I think you'll see [a product]-Honeywell doesn't leave ground barren for very long." 
 
On the flight deck of the future: "My airplane of the future will have picture windows in the front, maybe 
some flowers up there. One person comes up and monitors the takeoff and the landing using a laptop. 
She-not a he-will help load the airplane and greet everyone, see them off, load the baggage. We'll 
automate a lot of that, and pay her $500,000 a year. The biggest problem we've got, according to my 
wife, is the public accepting it." 
 
On this last point, Honeywell is quick to point out that Bateman is speaking for Bateman, since as a matter 
of practicality there will be pilots in the front end of aircraft for years to come, and Honeywell will continue 
supporting and researching everything and anything to do with those pilots and their interactions with the 
machine. 
 
But Bateman is known for speaking his mind, politics be damned: "That's what I think, and since I'm 
retiring, I'm open-minded about it."  
 
www.aviationweek.com
 

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Deadly Suicide Bombings Hit Istanbul's Ataturk Airport
 
"We were in a pool of blood," an eyewitness said.
*	At least 41 people are dead and 239 wounded after three suicide bombers attacked the airport.
*	Official says 23 Turkish citizens, 10 foreign nationals and three dual people of dual nationality died in 
the attacks.
*	Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called on world leaders to "take a firm stance against 
terrorism."
*	The FAA has beefed up security at U.S. airports.
  
People leave Istanbul's Ataturk Airport after an attack by suicide bombers.
 
ISTANBUL - Three suicide bombers attacked Istanbul Ataturk Airport late Tuesday evening, killing at least 
41 people and wounding 239 others, Turkish authorities said. Initial government assessments suggest the 
self-described Islamic State was responsible, Turkey's Prime Minister Binali Yildirim told reporters. 
 
Twenty-three Turkish citizens, 10 foreign nationals and three dual people of dual nationality were killed, 
including one Chinese person, one Jordanian, one Tunisian, one Uzbek and one Ukrainian, a Turkish 
presidential official said. Among the wounded, 109 were discharged from the hospitals, the governor's 
office said in its statement on Wednesday. 
 
Police shot at the attackers outside the security gate of the airport's international terminal, a senior 
Turkish official told The WorldPost. The attackers did not make it through the security gate before 
detonating their explosives. 
 
"Police fired shots at suspects at the international terminal's entry, before security check, in an effort to 
neutralize them," the official said. 
 
"I was taking my mother to her plane when the attack occurred," an eyewitness told Turkish media outlet 
Haberturk. "I got to the parking garage quickly, and everyone was running in all directions." 
 
The eyewitness described the explosions as "very violent," saying, "We were in a pool of blood." 
 
"Everything happened very fast," Ahmad Alomary told HuffPost Arabi. "I was waiting for a friend of mine 
[who was] coming from Dubai inside the [airport] arrival hall, then all of a sudden we heard a loud 
explosion noise and the security guards asked everybody to lie on the ground. The hall was crowded with 
many people, some with children. We all laid down, then I managed to run out from the hall." 
 
Most of the victims appear to have been Turkish, a source told HuffPost Arabi. Many of the injured were 
brought to the nearby government-run Bak?rköy hospital, where an enormous crowd of worried family and 
friends gathered outside. 
 
Ataturk, Turkey's largest airport, is the main international airport serving Istanbul. All flights were 
temporarily suspended at the airport in the wake of the attack, including those inbound from the U.S., and 
Facebook activated its Safety Check feature for the surrounding area. Flights to and from the airport have 
since resumed and American airports have increased security in response to the attacks, ABC News 
reported. 
 
Dazed travelers in the airport's domestic terminal made phone calls to loved ones and waited for 
information, according to one woman who was present.  
 
At least some people inside the airport were told that they wouldn't be able to leave for hours as 
authorities searched the building, another person who was waiting to be evacuated told The WorldPost. 
 
Turkey has been reeling from months of attacks targeting both tourists and security forces. Self-described 
Islamic State militants have claimed credit for some of the bombings, while Kurdish militant groups, which 
the Turkish government is fighting in the country's south, took responsibility for others.  
 
"Terrorism strikes with no regard for faith and values," President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in a 
statement. "Nor do terrorists distinguish between their victims. We urge the world, especially Western 
countries, to take a firm stand against terrorism." 
 
"Make no mistake: For terrorist organizations, there is no difference between Istanbul and London, Ankara 
and Berlin, Izmir and Chicago or Antalya and Rome," he continued. "Unless all government and the entire 
mankind join forces in the fight against terrorism, much worse things than what we fear to imagine today 
will come true. The Ataturk Airport attack should serves as a turning point in the fight against terrorism 
around the world and especially in Western countries." 
 
Turkey began throttling access to news coverage just hours after the attack, a practice that has become 
common in recent months, watchdog groups said. The prime minister's office issued the gag order to all 
media outlets, which banned the sharing of any visuals from the incident, according to Vocative. Both 
Facebook and Twitter experienced disruptions as well. 
 
White House press secretary Josh Earnest responded to the attacks in a statement, saying, "Ataturk 
International Airport, like Brussels Airport which was attacked earlier this year, is a symbol of international 
connections and the ties that bind us together." 
 
"We remain steadfast in our support for Turkey, our NATO Ally and partner, along with all of our friends 
and allies around the world, as we continue to confront the threat of terrorism," he added. 
  
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/istanbul-ataturk-airport_us_5772cca9e4b0352fed3e1de7 
 
 

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The Istanbul airport attacks will test Turkish Airlines' global ambitions 
  
Suicide attacks reported to have killed nearly 40 people yesterday (June 28) at the Istanbul Ataturk 
Airport is more grim news for Turkish Airlines and the country's ailing tourism industry.
 
The airline, Turkey's largest, already had been hurt by terror attacks elsewhere in the country this year, 
complicating the company's efforts to position itself as a global player, and Istanbul as a major global hub, 
linking North America, Asia, Europe and Africa. The first three months of 2016 marked Turkish Airlines' 
worst quarter in 17 years.
 
The "perceived global and regional risks in Turkey and Europe" that Turkish Airlines cited as a reason for 
decreased customer demand also have hurt Turkey's tourism industry broadly. Tourism revenue in the first 
quarter fell by more than 16% from the same quarter of 2015, according to government figures. 
 
Despite the challenges, Turkish Airlines has been optimistic. It's increasing its fleet and and increasing the 
frequency it flies on some of its routes while also introducing new ones. It's been running high-profile ad 
campaigns featuring sports celebrities including Didier Drogba, Lionel Messi, and Kobe Bryant-and claiming 
it flew to Gotham City and Metropolis as part of a bid to cross-promote itself with the Batman v. Superman 
movie. But this global push is under threat unless it can entice travelers not only to fly with the airline but 
to feel safe enough fly through Istanbul's airport.
 
A day before the attack, the US State Department warned US citizens about terrorism threats throughout 
the country and to avoid travel to the southeastern part of the country that borders Syria. 
As peak summer travel months approach, a rebound for Turkish Airlines now looks a lot less likely now. 
 
http://qz.com/719357/the-istanbul-airport-attacks-will-test-turkish-airlines-global-ambitions/

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France Sends Fixed EgyptAir Black Box to Cairo 
 
(AFP) - France's BEA air safety agency sent to Cairo on Tuesday the data file from one of the black boxes 
from the EgyptAir plane that crashed into the Mediterranean last month, authorities said. 
 
Terrorism has not been ruled out as a cause of the crash on May 19, when the Airbus A320 operating 
Flight MS804 from Paris to Cairo went down killing all 66 people on board. 
 
The two black boxes from the aircraft were retrieved damaged from the bottom of the Mediterranean and 
sent to Paris, where the electronic board from the flight recorder was repaired on Monday. 
 
The file was "transferred to Cairo for decoding, validating and studying" at the civil aviation ministry, said 
the Egyptian Aircraft Accident Investigation Committee. 
 
The process "might take several days to ensure the accuracy of reading the data recorded," it said in a 
statement. 
 
The repair work of the cockpit voice recorder, the second black box, had also begun. 
 
"A meeting was also held today between the investigation committee members and the accredited French 
and American representatives to evaluate the work accomplished up till today," said the commission. 
 
Fifteen of the passengers on board the doomed aircraft were from France. 
 
It was also carrying 40 Egyptians, two Iraqis, two Canadians and one passenger each from Algeria, 
Belgium, Britain, Chad, Portugal, Saudi Arabia and Sudan. 
 
Investigators in France said the plane transmitted automated messages indicating smoke in the cabin and 
a fault in the flight control unit minutes before it disappeared. 
 
Their counterparts in Egypt confirmed the aircraft had made a 90-degree left turn followed by a 360-
degree turn to the right before hitting the sea. 
 
French judges are also investigating the crash. 
 
Prosecutors had previously opened a preliminary investigation -- a normal procedure when French citizens 
are involved -- and have handed their findings to judges for a "manslaughter" probe.
 

  
(AFP) - France's BEA air safety agency sent to Cairo on Tuesday the data file from one of the black boxes 
from the EgyptAir plane that crashed into the Mediterranean last month, authorities said. Terrorism has 
not been ruled out as a cause of the crash on May 19, when the Airbus A320 operating Flight MS804 from 
Paris to Cairo went down killing all 66 people on board. The two black boxes from the aircraft were 
retrieved damaged from the bottom of the Mediterranean and sent to Paris, where the electronic board 
from the flight recorder was repaired on Monday. The file was "transferred to Cairo for decoding, validating 
and studying" at the civil aviation ministry, said the Egyptian Aircraft Accident Investigation Committee. 
The process "might take several days to ensure the accuracy of reading the data recorded," it said in a 
statement. The repair work of the cockpit voice recorder, the second black box, had also begun. "A 
meeting was also held today between the investigation committee members and the accredited French and 
American representatives to evaluate the work accomplished up till today," said the commission. Fifteen of 
the passengers on board the doomed aircraft were from France. It was also carrying 40 Egyptians, two 
Iraqis, two Canadians and one passenger each from Algeria, Belgium, Britain, Chad, Portugal, Saudi Arabia 
and Sudan. Investigators in France said the plane transmitted automated messages indicating smoke in 
the cabin and a fault in the flight control unit minutes before it disappeared. Their counterparts in Egypt 
confirmed the aircraft had made a 90-degree left turn followed by a 360-degree turn to the right before 
hitting the sea. French judges are also investigating the crash. Prosecutors had previously opened a 
preliminary investigation -- a normal procedure when French citizens are involved -- and have handed 
their findings to judges for a "manslaughter" probe.
 
(AFP). France's BEA air safety agency sent to Cairo on Tuesday the data file from one of the black boxes 
from the EgyptAir plane that crashed into the Mediterranean last month, authorities said. 
 
Terrorism has not been ruled out as a cause of the crash on May 19, when the Airbus A320 operating 
Flight MS804 from Paris to Cairo went down killing all 66 people on board. 
 
The two black boxes from the aircraft were retrieved damaged from the bottom of the Mediterranean and 
sent to Paris, where the electronic board from the flight recorder was repaired on Monday. 
 
The file was "transferred to Cairo for decoding, validating and studying" at the civil aviation ministry, said 
the Egyptian Aircraft Accident Investigation Committee. 
 
The process "might take several days to ensure the accuracy of reading the data recorded," it said in a 
statement. 
 
The repair work of the cockpit voice recorder, the second black box, had also begun. 
 
"A meeting was also held today between the investigation committee members and the accredited French 
and American representatives to evaluate the work accomplished up till today," said the commission. 
 
Fifteen of the passengers on board the doomed aircraft were from France. 
 
It was also carrying 40 Egyptians, two Iraqis, two Canadians and one passenger each from Algeria, 
Belgium, Britain, Chad, Portugal, Saudi Arabia and Sudan. 
 
Investigators in France said the plane transmitted automated messages indicating smoke in the cabin and 
a fault in the flight control unit minutes before it disappeared. 
 
Their counterparts in Egypt confirmed the aircraft had made a 90-degree left turn followed by a 360-
degree turn to the right before hitting the sea. 
 
French judges are also investigating the crash. 
 
Prosecutors had previously opened a preliminary investigation - a normal procedure when French citizens 
are involved - and have handed their findings to judges for a "manslaughter" probe. 
 
http://jpupdates.com/2016/06/28/france-sends-fixed-egyptair-black-box-to-cairo/
 

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Govt figures show 35 near-miss aircraft incidents in 12 months (India) 
 
According to the official figures examined by The Indian Express, of the 35 incidents, at least 11 were 
reported in Delhi airspace, eight in Chennai, seven in Mumbai and four in Varanasi. 
  
Aircraft involved belonged to major industry players and IAF 
 
THERE WERE 35 near-miss incidents from March 2015 to March 2016, involving aircraft belonging to major 
airlines and the IAF, according to statistics submitted by Union Minister of State for Civil Aviation Mahesh 
Sharma in Lok Sabha last month.
 
According to the official figures examined by The Indian Express, of the 35 incidents, at least 11 were 
reported in Delhi airspace, eight in Chennai, seven in Mumbai and four in Varanasi.
 
The statistics handbook of the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) for 2014-15 recorded 11 
"serious incidents" in the previous cycle, although a senior official told The Indian Express that "not all 
near-miss incidents could be classified as serious".
 
http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/govt-figures-show-35-near-miss-aircraft-incidents-
in-12-months-2882942/
 

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India Adopts Long-Awaited National Aviation Policy 
  
New Indian carrier Vistara stands to be a beneficiary of the long-delayed reforms of the country's air 
transport policy. [Photo: Neelam Mathews]
 
India released a national civil aviation policy on June 17 after two decades of fits and starts, as the country 
works to properly develop its fledgling infrastructure and prepare for a forecast 20 percent annual traffic 
growth until 2020. Within three days of the announcement, India radically liberalized its restrictive foreign 
direct investment regime by opening ten sectors, including defense and aviation. 
 
Ministry of Civil Aviation secretary Rajiv Nayan Choubey called June "a fun month," while admitting 
challenges of implementation lay ahead and that "nuts and bolts" of the policy still required fine-tuning. 
"We are concerned that if we fall behind our growth curve, we will face civil aviation slumps," he said. "We 
have told OEMs to bring in an attractive leasing package [for small players]. This will help regional 
connectivity take off." Embraer has forecast India could absorb 100 of its E2 narrowbodies within the next 
decade. 
 
Highlights of the policy include incentives for the regional connectivity scheme (RCS) to boost travel to Tier 
2 and Tier 3 cities, development of unused airstrips and doing away with the controversial "5/20 rule," 
which stipulated a startup must fly domestic routes for five years and operate at least 20 aircraft before 
starting international service. Under the new rule, airlines with 20 aircraft can start flights abroad 
immediately. A likely beneficiary, one-and-a-half-year-old Vistara, now flies 11 A320s and plans to add 
two more by October. Planning a fleet of 20 Airbuses by June 2018, the operator, which is joinly owned by 
India's Tata and Singapore Airlines (SIA), already has started viewing opportunities beyond India. "We are 
evaluating whether and how soon we need to advance the induction of aircraft," Vistara CEO Phee Teik 
Yeoh told AIN.  
 
Vistara's international operations would allow SIA to use Delhi as a transit hub en-route to Europe, said K. 
Ajith, an analyst at Singapore-based securities trading and investment firm UOB in a report. Given SIA's 
membership in the Star Alliance, Vistara's entry into the alliance as a regional member appears likely, said 
an airline official. Star refused to comment on the prospect, however. 
 
Meanwhile, some existing carriers have expressed disenchantment with India's new policy. 
 
"There is no mention of reducing cost of operations including the high taxation on aviation fuel, landing 
and parking charges, and improvement in air traffic management that will help us burn less fuel and help 
economics of airlines," said one domestic airline official. "Major airports are congested. Why not relax the 
rule to construct a second airport in metro cities within 150 kilometers of the existing ones?" 
 
Although the new foreign direct investment (FDI) policy now allows foreigners to own 100 percent of 
Indian airlines, airlines based outside of India can own no more than 49 percent while overseas investors 
such as sovereign wealth funds not associated with the carrier can own the rest, Choubey said. 
 
SpiceJet chairman and managing director Ajay Singh expressed some reservations about that part of the 
new policy. "We [in India] have to be clear what we want," he said. "Do we want to grow our own airlines 
or help others build their hubs outside India?" 
 
The policy makes no mention of the formation of an independent Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), 
privatization of Air India, market listing of Airports Authority of India (AAI) and ongoing discussions about 
the spinoff of Air Navigation Services from AAI, observed KPMG. 
 
http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/air-transport/2016-06-29/india-adopts-long-awaited-national-
aviation-policy

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Hong Kong Civil Aviation Dept. launches investigation after plane narrowly misses Big Buddha 
 
The Civil Aviation Department has launched an investigation after an Airbus A380 was found to have 
deviated from its normal flight path and passed over the top of the Big Buddha on Sunday morning. 
 
The department confirmed that at 9:52am on June 26, a Shenzhen Airlines flight shifted from the regular 
path when preparing for landing at the north runway of the Hong Kong International Airport. Air traffic 
controllers immediately issued instructions to return the flight to its regular course and to safe altitude, 
RTHK reported. 
 
  
The Aviation Herald, which covers incidents and news relating to aviation, reported that flight ZH9041 
from Jinjiang to Hong Kong was on its final approach when it aborted the landing and declined the handing 
over of control to the tower. It then deviated from the normal approach flight path and ascended out of 
the south runway, intending to land. 
 
The plane was instructed by air traffic control to stop climbing at 3,000 feet. The plane climbed over 
Lantau Island and the Big Buddha, and then to safety at 6,000 feet. Twenty minutes after the incident first 
began, the plane landed safely. 
  
The Civil Aviation Department also said that separation from other traffic was not an issue and no other 
planes were affected. An investigation into the matter has been launched and Shenzhen Airlines has been 
requested to hand over a report. 
 
https://www.hongkongfp.com/2016/06/29/civil-aviation-dept-launches-investigation-after-plane-narrowly-
misses-big-buddha/
 

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UAE to hold technical aviation talks with the US government next month 
  
The UAE's aviation chief will hold "technical talks" with US officials next month during which the subject of 
airline subsidies will be discussed. 
 
This follows claims by airlines in the United States that their Arabian Gulf competitors benefit from unfair 
state subsidies worth billions of dollars - a claim denied by the region's three big carriers. 
 
"We will carry technical discussions with the US government in mid-July," Saif Mohammed Al Suwaidi, the 
director general of the UAE's General Civil Aviation Authority, told The National. "We will travel to the US 
for the meeting." 
 
The dispute between US and Gulf airlines has been simmering for almost two years, with claim and 
counterclaim of alleged anti-competitive practices. However, both sides have avoided tit-for-tat allegations 
in recent months. 
 
Mr Al Suwaidi did not disclose expectations for the outcome of the talks. However, he said: "We will listen 
to their point of view." 
 
Asked if the Gulf airlines will take part in the talks, he said: "We haven't decided on the individuals who 
will be part of the negotiations." 
 
An Etihad spokesman said the airline had not received a meeting request or update from the US 
government. 
 
"However, we submitted our formal response to the false allegations made against us by the big three US 
carriers last May," he said. "We respect the process and we await the outcome of the US government's 
deliberations." 
 
Earlier this month, Emirates airline's president, Tim Clark, said he "remains optimistic" for a resolution of 
the dispute over open skies. 
 
He said that Gulf airlines were a "force of good", as they brought more choice to consumers and "raised 
the bar in many ways". 
 
Ed Bastian, the new chief executive of Atlanta-based Delta, said this month that the US government was 
concerned about the open skies dispute. 
 
The UAE-US aviation talks come as the UK and the EU are assessing the regulatory impact of Brexit on the 
aviation sector. The UK Civil Aviation Authority has been heavily involved in European policy and 
agreements for decades, but after the country's vote to leave the EU, its ability to influence future aviation 
policy is in doubt. 
 
Emirates declined to comment on the talks while Qatar Airways was unavailable for comment on Tuesday. 
 
http://www.thenational.ae/business/aviation/uae-to-hold-technical-aviation-talks-with-the-us-
government-next-month
 

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Shrinking Pool of Future Pilots Keeps Major Airlines on Edge
*	Study shows deficit of 15,000 by 2026 as fewer choose career
*	Regional carriers already reeling from aviator shortage
  
After coping with terrorism, bankruptcies and consolidation, the largest U.S. airlines are facing a new 
problem: They may start running out of pilots in as soon as three years.
 
That looming pilot deficit will soar to 15,000 by 2026, according to a study by the University of North 
Dakota's Aviation Department, as more captains reach the mandatory retirement age of 65 and fewer 
young people choose commercial aviation as a profession. And that's in an industry where captains on the 
biggest international jets average more than $200,000 a year -- with some pushing $300,000. 
A pilot shortage is already the bane of the often low-paying regional carriers that ferry passengers from 
smaller airports to hubs operated by American, Delta and other major airlines. That's worrisome for the 
major carriers because they typically use the smaller operators as a pipeline for hiring.
 
"That is one of the things in my job I get to worry about every day and when I go to bed at night," said 
Greg Muccio, a senior manager at Southwest Airlines Co. "The biggest problem is a general lack of interest 
in folks pursuing this as a career anymore. That's what puts us in the most jeopardy." 
 
Airlines are responding by changing hiring requirements, boosting signing bonuses at regional carriers they 
own and partnering with flight schools and university aviation programs. Muccio spends some of his time 
trying to interest college, high school and even elementary students in an aviation career, while he's 
working to extend the biggest three-year expansion of pilot hiring in Southwest's history.
 
The top three reasons would-be pilots are changing their career plans are the cost of flight training and 
certification, low pay at regional carriers and a 2013 regulatory change that mandated a sixfold increase in 
flight hours required to become a first officer, according to a study released last year by the University of 
North Dakota and the University of Nebraska-Omaha. 
 
For an article on how Asian airlines are recruiting more women as pilots, click here. 
Until recently, few pilots were willing to recommend the career, even to their own children, said Louis 
Smith, president of FAPA.aero, a career and financial planner for professional pilots. 
"That mood is changing," Smith said, as larger airlines have become profitable and picked up hiring to 
support expansion. "Still, the cost of learning to fly and the risk and impact of failure is a major 
impediment to building the pool of pilots." 
Costly Training 
Flight-training fees for a commercial aviation major total about $64,500 at the University of North Dakota, 
the largest public aviation program in the U.S. That figure excludes tuition and room and board, which can 
add as much as $105,400 for an out-of-state student.
 
Major U.S. airlines will hire as many as 5,000 pilots this year, mainly to replace retirees but also to support 
expansion, Smith said. Most will come from regional carriers, military retirees and flight schools.  
Bankruptcies and consolidation may be triggered among regional carriers when the larger airlines 
increasingly seek to fill their pilot needs, said Elizabeth Bjerke, chairwoman of the University of North 
Dakota Aviation Department. Republic Airways Holdings Inc., which makes commuter flights for American, 
United and Delta, filed for bankruptcy in February, in part because of a pilot shortage. 
"The future is a little scary," said John Hornibrook, system chief pilot for Alaska Air Group Inc. "The pool is 
just not as big as it used to be. That's a concern for everybody down the road."
 
Retirement Age 
More than 30,000 pilots -- or half the current total of 60,222 at 10 large U.S. airlines, United Parcel 
Service Inc. and FedEx Corp. -- will reach age 65 by 2026, according to data compiled by Kit Darby, 
president of KitDarby.com Aviation Consulting LLC.
 
To help recruiting, Southwest has dropped its prior requirement that pilot applicants hold a certificate to fly 
its Boeing Co. 737s, which can cost as much as $14,000. Southwest also has cut in half the time between 
an interview with a potential pilot and a job offer, Muccio said. 
 
American Airlines Group Inc., which is adding about 650 pilots this year and 750 in 2017, gets about half 
its cockpit staff via "flow through" agreements that allow aviators at its three wholly owned regional 
carriers to move into jobs at the bigger company. Delta Air Lines Inc. has a similar deal with its Endeavor 
unit, while Alaska Airlines guarantees interviews to pilots from its sister company, Horizon Air. 
"Every major we've talked to, they are concerned beyond the next three to four years," said Jim Higgins, 
the principal investigator on the University of North Dakota pilot study.
 
At American's Envoy unit, the promise of a seamless move to a major carrier is a big draw, said Jon 
Reibach, the airline's director of pilot recruiting. Joshua Gimre, 22, who is accumulating hours as a flight 
instructor after graduating from LeTourneau University in Texas and joining Envoy, could become a captain 
at American by the time he's 45, with a 20-year flying career still ahead of him. 
 
"Once a young pilot interviews with us, that's the last airline interview they'll ever have to do," Reibach 
said.
 
Signing Bonuses 
American's regional carriers -- Envoy, Piedmont and PSA airlines -- this month increased their signing 
bonus to $15,000. Delta's Endeavor pays a signing bonus of as much as $23,000 a year. It has the highest 
first-year salary at $47,000, according to a database maintained by Darby. First-year pay at commuter 
carriers averages $35,227.
 
A first officer, or co-pilot, on the smallest aircraft at large airlines earns an average $55,054 his first year, 
according to Darby. That can increase to more than $120,000 in his fifth year, flying the largest plane. A 
captain at top seniority flying the biggest planes averages $208,828.
 
In March, JetBlue Airways Corp. initiated Gateway Select, where recruits with no flying experience undergo 
a series of screenings before being placed into a "rigorous" four-year study program to become pilots. The 
model, designed to recruit from a broader range of candidates and reduce training costs, is similar to 
those used in Europe and Asia.
 
At United Continental Holdings Inc., a new career path program designed "to counter the potential 
shortage of qualified pilots," involves two regional carriers and a flight-training school, according to a 
memo from the airline. Similar to a flow-through program, the plan provides a chance to move to the 
larger carrier. The airline will hire 650 pilots this year and as many as 900 in 2017. 
"The competition for the best and brightest pilots is heating up," United said in May. 
 
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-29/shrinking-pool-of-future-pilots-keeps-major-
airlines-on-edge
 

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NetJets boosts options for Cessna Latitude, to receive first jet 
 
NetJets expects the Cessna Citation Latitude midsize business jet to enter service in mid-July
  
NetJets has taken delivery of its first Cessna Citation Latitude, which also marked the 7,000th delivery of a 
Wichita-built Citation business jet. 
 
Textron Aviation Cessna will deliver its 7,000th Citation, a Citation Latitude to NetJets, which also 
increased its order options for the Wichita company's newest business jet. 
 
The Berkshire Hathaway-owned company has increased its options for the midsize jet to 50 more, bringing 
its firm orders - 25 - and options for the $16 million Latitude to 200. It originally placed an order for 25 
firm and 125 optional Latitudes in 2012. 
 
NetJets, a fractional aircraft ownership company, said that its Latitude fleet could grow to more than 175 
aircraft over the next 10 years based on "current sales pacing and projections." 
 
"The Citation Latitude business jet gives our Owners and their guests best-in-class performance, size, and 
comfort in the midsize category," NetJets CEO Adam Johnson said in the release. 
 
A NetJets spokeswoman said this first Latitude is expected to be delivered in mid-July. In January, Textron 
Aviation delivered a Latitude on a short-term lease for NetJets to use as a demonstrator to its fractional 
customers, she said. 
 
Cessna's first Citation jet delivery was in 1972. The company currently produces eight models: Citation 
Mustang, Citation M2, Citation CJ3-Plus, Citation CJ4, Citation XLS-Plus, Citation Latitude, Citation 
Sovereign-Plus and Citation X-Plus. 
 
This summer, Textron Aviation expects to make the first flight of what would be its ninth Citation, the 
super-midsize Longitude. 
 
Textron Aviation said it has delivered 23 Latitudes between August 2015 and the first quarter of 2016. 
 
http://www.kansas.com/news/business/aviation/article86392822.html#storylink=cpy 
 

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China just flew its first passenger jet - and it's a clunker 
  
Tuesday was a big day for Chinese aviation. The first passenger jet built in China, the Comac ARJ-21, 
made its first commercial flight with launch customer Chengdu Airlines, from Chengdu in central China to 
Shanghai, a two-hour flight that went reportedly without a hitch, with 70 passengers on the 90-seat 
twinjet. 
 
The new plane "offers valuable experience for China's aviation industry, especially in the large civil aircraft 
area," Wu Xingshi, the ARJ-21's former chief designer, told the Xinhua news agency. And that's what the 
jet will end up being: a way for China to gain experience, on the way to possibly competing one day with 
Western manufacturers of civilian airplanes. But as a commercial proposition, the ARJ-21 is a failure. 
 
State-owned Comac has corraled around 300 orders for the aircraft, almost all from Chinese companies 
except for a few in Asia and Africa - Laos, Indonesia, Myanmar and the Republic of Congo - plus an order 
for five from US-based leasing company GECAS, a division of General Electric, which will then lease them 
out to airlines. 
 
Almost a decade behind schedule, the ARJ-21 is a sales flop compared to Western jets of similar size. The 
Brazilian-made Embraer E-Jet family has won around 1,500 orders; Canada's Bombardier CRJ planes got 
more than 800. Both seat up to 100 people on journeys typically limited to a couple hours' flight, a 
category commonly known as "regional jets." 
  
The smallest jets from Boeing and Airbus, the US and European giants that have a near-absolute duopoly 
on planes bigger than 100 seats, sell in the thousands. While not directly comparable to the ARJ, they 
show that established players in the passenger transport market are on a scale that the Comac is nowhere 
near matching; in 14 years since the launch of the program, it has built just six ARJ-21s. Boeing builds six 
737s in one and a half day on average. 
 
Granted, the ARJ-21 has a list price estimated at around $30 million, way cheaper than similar Western 
jets. But it's also heavier, which means it burns more fuel. And Comac is an unproven entity; the only 
thing airlines outside of China really know about it is that it's taken a long time to put its first jet into the 
hands of its first customer (which also is a subsidiary of Comac itself, by the way, not an independent 
airline.) 
 
The ARJ-21 took eight years from first flight to entry into service, and only six of them have been 
produced since 2008. The Boeing 787, for example, needed less than two years, for a far more complex, 
bigger airplane. 
 
The Chinese market for commercial airplanes is huge and growing, and so far it's been a gold mine for 
planemakers - Western ones, that is. Boeing estimates that Chinese airlines will need to buy more than 
6,000 airplanes between 2014 and 2034, worth almost $1 trillion. Most of them will be built by companies 
based outside China. 
 
Comac is learning painstakingly to build planes that may one day get a slice of that pie, but right now, its 
technology is decades behind - and looks like a dicey proposition for export. Its current flagship product is 
not even allowed to fly in the West. The ARJ-21 does not have a certificate from the US Federal Aviation 
Administration or from its European equivalent saying that it's fit to carry passengers commercially, and so 
it can fly only in China and some countries that recognize Chinese certification. 
 
Frequent flyers and aviation geeks who spot an ARJ may not even recognize it for the pioneer it is, or even 
do a double take: it looks just like a shrunken DC-9, a 50-year old American veteran whose production line 
closed years ago. 
 
It is, in fact, basically a smaller copy of the last version of the DC-9. Its electronics are made by Western 
firms; its engines are straight-up American, made by General Electric (something that also helps explain 
why GE's aircraft-leasing arm has bought a handful. In comparison, it has thousands of Western planes.) 
 
Even if the ARJ-21 eventually turns out to be a relative success, it's a small plane for short flights; no one 
is seriously challenging the Euro-American lock on big jets that seat hundreds, and on the profits from 
selling them. (The Russians are trying, but the general consensus is they won't have much better luck 
abroad than the Chinese.) 
 
China is now betting hard on the C919, another Comac product roughly twice the size of the ARJ-21 in 
terms of passengers carried, meant to compete directly with the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737, the most 
widely sold passenger jets in history. But the C919 hasn't even flown yet, and while Comac says it will 
take a lot less time to bring it to service than its smaller sibling, it hasn't yet won serious orders for it 
outside China either. 
 
The conclusion is simple: for quite a long time, the only way for people to fly on a Chinese-built airliner will 
be to go to China and find one of the few routes it will cover. 
 
"China matters more than ever as an aircraft market," wrote Richard Aboulafia, who heads aviation 
research firm Teal Group. "It matters less than ever as an aircraft producer." 
 
TOPICS: china, aviation, comac arj-21, comac arj-21 first commercial flight, asia & pacific, arj-21 fir 
 
https://news.vice.com/article/china-just-flew-its-first-passenger-jetand-its-a-clunker

Curt Lewis