Flight Safety Information November 18, 2016 - No. 230 In This Issue NTSB Advises Pilots There are Limits of 'See-Avoid' Plans After 2 Mid-Air Collisions AOPA AIR SAFETY INSTITUTE, UND STUDY STABILIZED APPROACH Honeywell Develops Mind Control for Airplanes Strong Dollar Means Weak Chinese Airlines Nigeria: Airlines Raise the Alarm Over Persistent Aviation Fuel Scarcity Air Force jets that buzzed Charlotte were 'careless and reckless,' FAA report says White Paper Examines Dramatic Growth in Drone Industry Research Survey NTSB Advises Pilots There are Limits of 'See-Avoid' Plans After 2 Mid-Air Collisions The National Transportation Safety Board reported Tuesday that two mid-air collisions in 2015 show the limits of "see and avoid" strategies and suggests air traffic controllers and pilots buy better cockpit technology to help avoid such deadly crashes. NTSB officials read reports in Washington on the two accidents that claimed the lives of seven people, saying existing safety mechanisms failed. The "see and avoid" strategy requires a pilot to see another aircraft and take evasive action in time to avoid a collision. "We want to highlight the limitations of the see-and-avoid concept and call attention to the alternatives," NTSB spokesman Peter Knudsen said following the presentation. "There are affordable options for pilots to install equipment that can help avoid such incidents." The first collision happened over Moncks Corner, South Carolina, between a Cessna and an Air Force F-16 fighter. Two people in the small plane were killed but the jet pilot ejected safely. The second accident occurred in San Diego. Five people were killed in the collision between a Cessna and a twin-engine jet. In the South Carolina case, board investigator Dennis Diaz said the controller told investigators she had thought the Cessna would stay within its Moncks Corner local traffic pattern, but realized it was climbing and a crash was possible. The Cessna wasn't in contact with the tower, nor was it required to be, Diaz said. The controller told the F-16 pilot to "turn left immediately" but the pilot was confused about the instruction, Diaz said. The investigator said the F-16 and the Cessna "were not equipped with any traffic display or alert technologies" that would have avoided the crash. In San Diego, the pilot of a small Cessna was practicing touch-and-go landings at Brown Municipal Airport and collided with the faster-moving twin-engine jet, which carried four contractors returning from working with the Navy. All five people on the two planes died. The NTSB said the fields of vision for both the Cessna and the small jet appeared to be limited and partially obscured at times. "The accident airplanes were not equipped with any type of technologies in the cockpit that displayed or alerted of traffic conflicts. If such technologies were in one or both of the airplanes, it is likely that the pilots would have been aware of surrounding traffic and this might have changed the outcome," the board report said. http://www.claimsjournal.com/news/national/2016/11/18/275036.htm Back to Top AOPA AIR SAFETY INSTITUTE, UND STUDY STABILIZED APPROACH On the heels of the NTSB's Nov. 14 release of its "Most Wanted" list of transportation safety improvements that included general aviation loss of control, the University of North Dakota, in partnership with the AOPA Air Safety Institute, announced that it is studying the use of a continuous turning approach or "circular pattern" as an alternative to the traditional "box" or rectangular traffic pattern. Comparison between traditional rectangular pattern and circular pattern. Graphic courtesy of AOPA Air Safety Institute. Reduction of in-flight loss-of-control accidents continues to be identified by the NTSB as a most-wanted safety improvement. Working with senior NTSB officials at a recent loss-of-control panel, the idea was formed that UND and AOPA team up to explore how simple procedural and training methodology changes in the landing pattern might improve safety and reduce loss-of-control accidents. The hypothesis to be studied is that in contrast with a rectangular pattern, a continuous turn from downwind to final may provide for increased stability, reduced pilot workload, and a constant bank angle throughout the maneuver, helping pilots better manage angle-of-attack variances. Additionally, the use of a continuous turning approach has the potential to reduce the likelihood of overshooting a runway during base-to-final turns, a scenario that has resulted in multiple stall/spin accidents due to aggressive corrective maneuvering. Depending on the results of the study, this procedure may serve as a mitigating technique to reduce the likelihood of loss-of-control accidents during the landing phase of flight. "It's too early to say for sure if the continuous turn to final method will be a safer, more stabilized way to land. But what we do know is general aviation has been flying the rectangular pattern for decades, and based on substantial loss-of-control accident data in the landing pattern, we believe it's time to conduct research to determine if there is a potentially safer alternative," said George Perry, senior vice president of AOPA's Air Safety Institute. "The U.S. military, commercial airlines, and many airline ab initio programs already utilize the continuous approach turn as the standard to support safe landing pattern operations. We should determine which is safer for general aviation, and this study will help us find the answer." "The research will consist of flight data analysis to evaluate differences between the circular pattern and the rectangular pattern," noted Lewis Archer from UND's aviation department. "Variables that will be analyzed include bank angle, airspeed, and runway overshoot." Lewis continued, "Although the study is in its early phases, and it's far too soon to draw any definitive conclusions, the new procedure has already been studied and practiced by a select group of UND instructor pilots and initial data collection has been going quite well." The study is ongoing, and both UND and the Air Safety Institute are hopeful that results will be available sometime in early 2017. https://www.aopa.org/news-and-media/all-news/2016/november/17/aopa-air-safety-institute-und-study- stabilized-approach Back to Top Honeywell Develops Mind Control for Airplanes Will airplanes be flown hands-off in the future? Mind Control Airplane Wired's Jack Stewart tests out the "brain-computer interface" that allows a pilot to fly an airplane with only his or her thoughts. Santosh Mathan, an engineer with Honeywell Aerospace, has developed what seems to delve into the realm of total science fiction - a system that allows a person to fly an airplane using only his or her thoughts. Wired's Jack Stewart had an opportunity to try the system in a King Air C90 and was visibly shaken by the experience. What Mathan calls the "brain-computer interface" works through a cap loaded with tiny electrodes that are pushed into the scalp with conductive gel. With what Stewart describes as "a tiny amount of practice in a simulator," he could actually make the twin turboprop climb, descend and turn simply by focusing on certain areas of a tablet screen. After the flight, Stewart said the system followed his planned command about 90 percent of the time. While the concept as designed may not be a viable way to fly now, Mathan says "the eventual goal is to get all of this technology working in real time in an airplane." The work in Mathan's lab is designed to develop technologies to measure pilot workload, attention and other parameters that affect pilot performance in the flight deck. http://www.flyingmag.com/honeywell-develops-mind-control-for-airplanes Back to Top Strong Dollar Means Weak Chinese Airlines A strong dollar and higher bond yields should bring immediate pain-yet share prices aren't showing it What's keeping China's airline stocks aloft? Warren Buffett may have made U.S. airline stocks great again, but across the Pacific Ocean another billionaire should keep Chinese carriers grounded: Donald Trump. The president-elect rose to power on a protectionist platform, threatening to slap a huge tariff on goods imported from China. Such policies would no doubt hurt airlines globally, and even before any trade war breaks out Mr. Trump's surprise victory has brought damage to carriers. Twin rises in interest rates and the U.S. dollar since Mr. Trump's election should bring immediate pain to Chinese airlines, weighed down with dollar-denominated debt but fueled by revenue in yuan. Take Air China, for example: Nearly 60% of its debt was in dollars as of June, but 65% of its sales come from domestic customers. Altitude Sickness The share of Air China's debt denominated in dollars has fallen but remains high. Knowing about the currency mismatch, Chinese carriers have spent the past year swapping some of their dollar debt for yuan debt, turning to the burgeoning domestic bond market to raise cash. As the yuan continues to slide, however, this will get more expensive, as it will take more borrowed yuan to pay off the same amount of dollar debt. Interest rates in China have also risen since the U.S. election, with the 10-year yield up 0.13 percentage point to 2.89%. Given the airlines' high debt loads and narrow margins, a rise in interest expenses eats into profits quickly. Somehow, though, shares of the three major carriers-Air China, China Eastern and China Southern-haven't really budged since last week. But if the Trump trade for bonds and the dollar continues, China's airlines will have to seek a different altitude. http://www.wsj.com/articles/strong-dollar-means-weak-chinese-airlines-1479464114 Back to Top Nigeria: Airlines Raise the Alarm Over Persistent Aviation Fuel Scarcity Domestic airline operators have called on the federal government and concerned authorities to take urgent measures to ensure availability of aviation fuel, otherwise known as Jet A1. They warned that if no urgent action was taken to supply the product, they may be forced to suspend their services. Some of the operators who spoke to THISDAY said that out of the six marketers that supply the product only one still has the product and the price has risen to N248 per litre in Lagos and N351 per litre in Abuja. The Director of Engineering of Medview Airline, Lukeman Animashaun said aviation fuel now constitutes about 60 percent to 70 percent of the total cost of flight operation for Nigerian airlines and stressed that no airline is making any profit, but every airline that has airworthy aircraft must do everything possible to put it in the air. "We are getting the product at N248 per litre in Lagos. The price is increasing everyday, but the price of ticket sales has not changed. Every day, the price of aviation is going up, but passengers will not understand this. If we increase the price of tickets to reflect the increase in fuel costs the passengers will not be able to fly. There is no airline that is making any profit. Now, cost of fuel constitutes 60 to 70 percent of operational cost. It is more challenging when we consider the cost of fuel for our London flight, now that we are using Boeing B747. That aircraft takes about 160, 000 litres of aviation fuel and we cannot imagine refueling our aircraft in any of our neighbouring countries; it is the foreign airlines that do. Our London flights are already booked and we can never disappoint our customers," Animashaun said. Also the Managing Director of Arik Air, Chris Ndulue, told THISDAY in a telephone interview that the aviation fuel scarcity started last week and it is biting harder. He said that the scarcity has added to the challenges of doing business in Nigeria noting that even the oil marketers are having difficulties in sourcing the product. Ndulue recalled that during a recent conference in Lagos on oil and gas, there were indications that the importation of Jet A1 might be hampered but the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) promised to import the product. He said the current scarcity was an indication that the Corporation reneged in its promise. The Arik Air boss said the airline's major supplier of aviation fuel is Total, but the company did not have the product and as at Wednesday only So Aviation had fuel. He said it was surprising that Total, a major supplier did not have fuel and that showed the gravity of the scarcity and observed that the major marketer has been leveraging on forex from its upstream partner, Texaco, so the problem is enormous if the company cannot source and supply Jet A1. "A lot of businesses are going through a lot of problems. These are the problem of running business in Nigeria. Recently the increase in aviation fuel prices has been astronomical, driven by the high exchange rate. Such increase in fuel costs could trigger 100 percent increase in airfares, but the travelling public is going through a lot. Some don't get their salaries, other don't get their allowances due to the current economic recession. So people are cutting their expenditure to mere essentials. "The market has shrunk because some people who hitherto used to fly now travel by road or other means. Now, if you jerk up the fares the market will shrink further," Ndulue said. He had earlier noted that in this period when other parts of the world are enjoying cheap fuel, Nigeria is paying outrageous costs for the products due to the crash of the Naira and the attendant high cost of exchange rate. Industry observers are of the view that the only solution to the recurrent scarcity of aviation fuel was to refine the product locally adding the Airline Operators of Nigeria (AON) has urged the federal government to start refining Jet A1 in Warri Refinery, which has the capability of refining the product in Nigeria. http://allafrica.com/stories/201611180577.html Back to Top Air Force jets that buzzed Charlotte were 'careless and reckless,' FAA report says The pilots of four A-10 jets that buzzed Bank of America Stadium in August were "careless and reckless" in flying lower and faster than authorized, according to a preliminary report obtained by the Observer under the Freedom of Information Act. The Federal Aviation Administration report, as well as emails sent by Air Force leaders, indicate the fighter planes may have been flying as low as 500 feet above the ground. That's lower than the top of the nearby Duke Energy Center. Air Force Sec. Deborah Lee James Col. Thomas Kunkel, commander of the 23d Wing at Moody Air Force Base in Georgia. Gen. David Goldfein, U.S. Air Force chief of staff. Air Force Sec. Deborah Lee James Col. Thomas Kunkel, commander of the 23d Wing at Moody Air Force Base in Georgia. 1 of 3 Col. Thomas Kunkel, commander of the 23d Wing at Moody Air Force Base in Georgia. U.S. Air Force Under federal regulations, aircraft flying over a congested area need a waiver to fly lower than 1,000 feet above the highest obstacle "within a horizontal radius of 2,000 feet of the aircraft." On the morning of Aug. 29, the A-10C Thunderbolt II jets departed Charlotte Douglas International Airport for a routine training flight back to Moody Air Force Base in Valdosta, Ga. Before leaving the city, they zipped over the stadium and uptown, putting on an unexpected air show for startled residents, office workers and practicing Carolina Panthers players and coaches. The emails obtained by the Observer show the incident grabbed the attention of commanders at Moody within hours and then escalated up the chain of command, with the Air Force chief of staff and the Air Force secretary eventually asking for updates. The four A-10s requested to fly over the stadium at 500 feet above the ground, according to the FAA's preliminary "Pilot Deviation Report" filed soon after the incident. Air Traffic Control approved this request, but the pilots didn't have a waiver "for low-level high-speed flight over populated areas," the report says. The pilots committed "careless or reckless aircraft operation," "unauthorized low level flying" and failed to comply with a requirement not to exceed 250 knots (288 miles per hour) when flying under 10,000 feet above sea level, according to the preliminary findings. Preliminary reports are filed immediately after an event, triggering an investigation, FAA spokeswoman Kathleen Bergen said. "The final report is under review," she said. "We turn over the results of investigations of military events to the (U.S. Air Force) for action, if any is warranted." The day after the flight, Moody Air Force Base said the pilots were grounded pending completion of an investigation. Moody did not provide comment. Investigation begins The A-10 "Warthogs," twin-engined jets that provide close-air support in combat, departed Charlotte around 11:40 a.m. on Monday, Aug. 29, and arrived a little more than an hour later at Moody, according to FAA records. The jets are part of the 74th Fighter Squadron, which is part of the 23rd Fighter Group, which is in turn part of the Air Force's 23rd Wing. By 4:45 p.m. on Monday, the commander of the 23rd Fighter Group was making inquiries about the flight. He sent an email to the commander of the 74th Fighter Squadron with a link to a Charlotte Observer story that included a photo of an A-10 skirting the top of Bank of America Stadium. "What altitude do you think they were at?" asked the fighter group commander, whose name was redacted. In a follow-up exchange, the 74th Fighter Squadron commander, whose name was also redacted, said the stadium is 180 feet tall, "but I think the perspective of that pic is deceiving." The commander added that the pilots did not tell Air Traffic Control "they were practicing for a flyover and never used the term 'flyover.'" Shortly after the incident, a Charlotte Douglas spokesperson had told reporters that the planes were practicing a stadium flyover, but that turned out to be based on incorrect information from the FAA. Later that evening, the 74th Fighter Squadron commander sent an email with more details on the flight. Although given permission to go as low as 500 feet above ground level, the "flight lead kept the formation above 1,000" in accordance with Air Force requirements, the commander said. "No members of the formation had any associates, friends, or family in or around the stadium during departure," he added. In a follow-up email, the fighter group commander said he wanted to know how close the A-10s were to the 786-foot building east of the stadium, referring to the Duke Energy Center. Later that evening, Col. Thomas Kunkel, the commander of the 23rd Wing and the fighter group commander's boss, was part of another email chain. He told Maj. Gen. Scott Zobrist, commander of the 9th Air Force at Shaw Air Force Base in South Carolina, that the fighter group was looking into the matter. "All 4 pilots are grounded until further notice," he added. The next morning at 6:58 a.m. Kunkel forwarded an email to the fighter group commander that showed Zobrist updating a higher-up at Air Combat Command in Langley, Va. "(For Your Situational Awareness) this consumed a lot of my time yesterday evening," Kunkel wrote. How low were they flying? Emails from the next day, Aug. 31, show the matter rising all the way to the Air Force chief of staff, Gen. David Goldfein. Gen. William MacLure, deputy director of current operations at Air Force headquarters, sent an email to multiple Air Force leaders saying that the chief of staff would "like to know details" about the A-10 incident. The general set to brief Goldfein was "looking for something soonest," MacLure added. It's difficult to determine how low the planes flew from the report and the emails, but it appears they may have descended to 500 feet above the ground. In one email, an official with Air Combat Command in Virginia reiterated that the jets were given clearance to go as low as 500 feet above the ground, but stayed at 1,000 feet. But later, he writes that the planes flew about 500 feet above Bank of America Stadium. According to the preliminary FAA report, the A-10s were observed flying as low as 1,200 feet mean sea level over uptown. Bank of America Stadium is 705 feet above sea level, the fighter group commander says in an email. That would put the flight about 500 feet above the ground. As for their speed, the jets flew as fast as 330 knots (about 380 mph), according to the report. The aircraft did not carry tapes that recorded flight data, requiring the Air Force to request this information from the FAA, according to the emails. In an Aug. 31 email, the fighter group commander told Kunkel, the 23rd Wing commander, that he was still pursuing additional information from the FAA, including audio on whether the jets were cleared to go to 500 feet above the ground. "Also looking for any communication from them stating that they would remain at 1000 feet (above ground level), although it appears they did not," he wrote. On Sept. 7, the emails show that the issue had gone all the way up to the secretary of the Air Force, Deborah Lee James. The Air Force secretary "is looking for updates and/or a timeline/estimation for a closeout," a public affairs officer told Kunkel. In the most recent email obtained by the Observer, Kunkel on Sept. 11 told the fighter group commander "to make sure we have all the facts," including what Air Traffic Control approved, "what altitudes/airspeed and by whom were flown" and "what was communicated to squadron leadership upon landing." http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/local/article115195898.html#storylink=cpy Back to Top White Paper Examines Dramatic Growth in Drone Industry Leading Aviation Insurance Provider Presents Challenges and Opportunities Parsippany, New Jersey - The drone industry is growing before our eyes in ways that will affect many of our lives and at a speed that will challenge our expectations. Developing a drone program in any size enterprise will involve investment and risk. This is one of the key observations in a new white paper, Sky High Drone Growth Presents Challenges and Opportunities, published this week by Global Aerospace, a leading international aviation and aerospace insurance provider. "Global Aerospace has a unique awareness of the realities of the Unmanned Aircraft Systems market today," said white paper author Chris Proudlove, Global Aerospace's Senior Vice President and Manager of UAS Risks. "We work with a significant number of companies to help them understand best practices and safely utilize this incredible technology, in a way that will foster long-term success." The white paper is being made available free of charge, and can be downloaded at: www.global- aero.com/sky-high-drone-growth-presents-challenges-and-opportunities. For several years, Global Aerospace has provided insurance solutions and guidance to UAS operators from small independent organizations to large, military-grade UAS users. As aviation regulators around the world actively work to establish guidelines for the safe integration of UAS into their national airspace, Global Aerospace is at the forefront of insurance for this new industry, helping manufacturers and operators understand how to improve safety, minimize risk and insure against loss and liability. Individuals interested in learning more about UAS risk and insurance, or wishing to speak to an unmanned aviation insurance expert can contact Chris Proudlove at (973) 490-8525 or cproudlove@global-aero.com or a member of the UAS underwriting team at unmannedsubmissions@global-aero.com for more information. Global Aerospace is a leading provider of aerospace insurance with a worldwide portfolio of clients who are engaged in every aspect of the aviation and space industries. Headquartered in London, we have offices in Canada, Cologne, Paris, Zurich and throughout the United States. Across the world we employ over 300 people. With experience dating back to the 1920s, the company's underwriting is backed by a pool of high quality insurance companies representing some of the most respected names in the business. For additional information about Global Aerospace, please visit www.global-aero.com. To learn more about the company's SM4 safety program, please visit sm4.global-aero.com. ________________________________________ You are receiving this message from Suzanne Keneally, skeneally@global-aero.com at THE CREATIVE ALLIANCE. United States, One Sylvan Way, Parsippany, NJ, 07054 rose@thecreativealliance.com ________________________________________ Back to Top RESEARCH SURVEY My name is Sherry Saehlenou and I have been in the field of aviation for over 38 years as a flight attendant, purser and cabin safety trainer and recently have started my own training/consulting company. I have been working, for a while now, to raise awareness in the aviation community about the need for training in recognizing and reporting instances of human trafficking around the globe. My focus started with training flight attendants but as I talk to my colleagues it became clear that all employee groups need to develop an awareness and a plan (pilots, ground agents, airport security personnel, ticket counter employees and airport officials, etc.). I have been asked to write an article for a prominent security magazine about what our industry is, or is not, doing to deal with the problem of human trafficking - as airlines are frequently the transport vehicle and airports are distribution hubs. To that end, I need data and input from the aviation community around the globe.This is an anonymous survey; however, you may leave your contact info at the end if you are interested in the results and/or would like more information on Human Trafficking. Please share this survey with your colleagues. I appreciate your help and thank you for your time! Survey Link: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/htrafficking Curt Lewis