Flight Safety Information October 25, 2017 - No. 212 In This Issue Incident: Cathay Pacific B773 near Urumqi on Oct 24th 2017, engine shut down Incident: Mesa CRJ9 at Birmingham on Oct 24th 2017, smoke in cabin EVAS - Cockpit Smoke Protection Accident: China Eastern B738 at Shenzhen on Oct 23rd 2017, flight attendant fell out of aircraft Loss of control incident, Boeing 737-500 on approach to Moscow-Vnukovo, Russia Another Air Canada jet safety issue at San Francisco airport Some Bulgarian Pilots Refuse To Fly Russian MiG-29 Jets, Citing Safety Concerns Perth Skyshow plane crash: ATSB probes other airshow disasters, safety standards NTSB report: Airplane flying at 'low altitude' when hit power lines, crashed into river Southwest Airlines Flight Makes Emergency Landing in Amarillo The Value of Safety Management Systems for Operators Large and Small FAA Hosts Fifth General Aviation Summit Why the NTSB Chairman and an FBI Psychologist Are Coming to Wichita F-35A Pilots Report Five More Hypoxia-Like Episodes IATA: 2036 Forecast Reveals Air Passengers Will Nearly Double to 7.8 Billion Exclusive: Saudi Arabia's flyadeal to seek bids on 50-aircraft order within month Paul Weitz, astronaut who helped repair Skylab and commanded space shuttle, dies at 85 AAAE Runway Safety Summit Covers Crucially Important Topics New HFACS workshop in Beautiful Las Vegas December 12th & 13th GRADUATE RESEARCH SURVEY REQUEST Incident: Cathay Pacific B773 near Urumqi on Oct 24th 2017, engine shut down A Cathay Pacific Boeing 777-300, registration B-KPG performing flight CX-260 (dep Oct 23rd) from Paris Charles de Gaulle (France) to Hong Kong (China), was enroute at 10,100 meters about 130nm eastnortheast of Urumqi (China) when the crew reported an engine (GE90) oil indication, shut the engine down and diverted to Urumqi for a safe landing. A replacement Boeing 777-300 registration B-KPH positioned from Hong Kong to Urumqi, resumed the flight as CX-2601 and reached Hong Kong with a delay of 17 hours. The occurrence aircraft is still on the ground in Urumqi about 26 hours after landing. http://avherald.com/h?article=4b020f2b&opt=0 Back to Top Incident: Mesa CRJ9 at Birmingham on Oct 24th 2017, smoke in cabin A Mesa Airlines Canadair CRJ-900 on behalf of American Airlines, registration N932LR performing flight YV-5723/AA- 5723 from Birmingham,AL to Dallas Ft. Worth,TX (USA) with 79 passengers and 4 crew, was climbing out of Birmingham's runway 24 when the crew reported they needed to return immediately due to smoke in the cabin. The aircraft stopped the climb at 7000 feet and was positioning for the approach to runway 24, when the crew updated flight attendants had just reported there was a bag emitting the smoke, they didn't really know what it was, they needed to evacuate after landing. The aircraft landed safely on runway 24 about 15 minutes after departure, after landing the crew decided they were able to taxi to the apron and taxied to the apron with emergency services in trail. The aircraft remained on the ground for about 4:20 hours, then departed again and reached Dallas with a delay of 4.5 hours. https://flightaware.com/live/flight/AAL5723/history/20171024/1105Z/KBHM/KDFW http://avherald.com/h?article=4b0209ec&opt=0 ************** Flight returns to Birmingham airport after reports of smoke in cabin A Dallas-bound American Airlines plane was forced to return to Birmingham after the pilot reported smoke in the cabin. 79 passengers were evacuated onto the tarmac once the plane landed. (abc3340.com) BIRMINGHAM, Ala. - An American Airlines flight was forced to return to Birmingham early Monday morning after the pilot reported smoke in the cabin. American Eagle Flight 5723 was forced to turn around minutes after takeoff from Birmingham Shuttlesworth International Airport. Passengers tell ABC 33/40 News the plane circled the airport a few times before landing. The Dallas-bound flight's 79 passengers were quickly evacuated onto the tarmac where Birmingham Fire-Rescue personnel were waiting. No one was injured during the flight. "There was so much going on that happened so quickly that when we landed it was like 'Get off the plane, get off the plane, get off the plane.' She made it kind of sound urgent," said Ashelynn Falkenburg Smith, who was beginning a vacation to California with her husband and daughter. Smith's family was re-booked on a later flight. Many other passengers were left Monday morning struggling to make their scheduled connecting flights. Regular flight operations at the airport were not interrupted by the emergency landing. American Airlines has not said what it believes caused the smoke inside the plane's cabin. http://abc3340.com/news/local/passengers-evacuated-from-flight-at-bhm-airport-no-injures- reported Back to Top Back to Top Accident: China Eastern B738 at Shenzhen on Oct 23rd 2017, flight attendant fell out of aircraft A China Eastern Boeing 737-800, registration B-1703 performing flight MU-5762 from Shenzhen to Kunming (China), was preparing for departure from the gate, a flight attendant attempted to close the left aft cabin door alone however fell out of the aircraft and landed on concrete almost 3 meters below the door. The flight attendant received serious injuries (fractures) and was taken to a hospital. The aircraft was able to depart with a delay of about 2 hours. http://avherald.com/h?article=4b02078f&opt=0 Back to Top Loss of control incident, Boeing 737-500 on approach to Moscow-Vnukovo, Russia Date: 13-OCT-2017 Time: 06:17 UTC Type: Boeing 737-524 (WL) Owner/operator: UTair Registration: VQ-BJP C/n / msn: 28905/2934 Fatalities: Fatalities: 0 / Occupants: Other fatalities: 0 Airplane damage: Unknown Location: Moscow-Vnukovo Airport (VKO/UUWW) - Russia Phase: Approach Nature: Domestic Scheduled Passenger Departure airport: Krasnodar Airport (KRR) Destination airport: Moscow-Vnukovo Airport (VKO/UUWW) Narrative: UTair flight UT588 from Krasnodar to Moscow, Russia, reportedly suffered a loss of control incident while on approach to Moscow's Vnukovo Airport. Unconfirmed reports from Russian aviation sources suggest that the aircraft was on approach to runway 06 when a situation developed where the aircraft attained a pitch attitude of +45 degrees. The aircraft rolled 33 degrees to the right, then -34.8 to the left.The pitch supposedly decreased to 30 with the speed dropping to 60 KIAS. The aircraft is then thought to have rolled 96 degrees to the right, pitching -14 degrees (nose down). It then banked 45 degrees to the left with speed increasing to 150 KIAS. The flight crew then regained control and reported to ATC that they were going around because the approach was unstabilised. The crew positioned the aircraft for another approach and proceeded for a landing at 06:35 UTC, about 18 minutes after the event. The aircraft was still on the ground at Vnukovo, eleven days after the event. ATC radio communications attached. Weather reported about the time of the incident (0617Z): UUWW 130400Z 16004MPS 2000 R24/1600U BR OVC001 08/07 Q1002 R24/290050 TEMPO 1000 - SHRA BR BKN015CB RMK QBB040 UUWW 130500Z 17003MPS 1800 1300SE R24/1300N BR OVC001 08/08 Q1002 R24/290050 TEMPO 0400 FG RMK QBB040 UUWW 130600Z 17003MPS 2100 R24/1600U BR OVC001 09/08 Q1002 R24/290050 TEMPO 0400 FG RMK QBB050 UUWW 130700Z 16002MPS 120V200 4400 BR OVC001 09/09 Q1001 R06/290050 NOSIG RMK QBB050 https://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/wiki.php?id=200545 Back to Top Another Air Canada jet safety issue at San Francisco airport The air traffic control tower is in sight as a plane takes off from San Francisco International Airport, Tuesday, Oct. 24, 2017, in San Francisco. The Federal Aviation Authority is investigating why an Air Canada plane ignored repeated orders by an air traffic controller at the airport to abort a landing on Sunday, Oct. 22. The incident comes three months after another Air Canada plane nearly landed on a crowded taxiway at the airport. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu) Six times the control tower at San Francisco International Airport ordered an incoming Air Canada plane to abort its landing, fearing another plane might be on the runway. Each time, the order went unanswered. Finally, air traffic controllers Sunday night took out an emergency red light and aimed it outside their window toward the jet to try to get the pilots' attention. That didn't work either, the plane landed and one of the pilots then radioed that he was having problems with the radio. "That's pretty evident," the controller responded. The Federal Aviation Administration said Tuesday it is investigating the second serious safety issue in three months involving an Air Canada passenger jet landing at San Francisco airport. In July, an Air Canada jet with 140 people on board nearly landed on a taxiway where four planes were waiting before takeoff, prompting the FAA to issue new rules for nighttime landings and control tower staffing at the airport. Sunday's incident involved a flight from Montreal. The Airbus A320 was given initial clearance to land when it was about 6 miles (10 kilometers) from the airport, FAA spokesman Ian Gregor said. The cockpit acknowledged the instruction. But air traffic control then reversed its clearance, concerned a plane that had just landed would not be off the runway in time. "Air Canada 781, go around," the controller said, using terminology telling the pilot to abort the landing. Audio from the control tower indicates the Air Canada flight was told six times in less than 35 seconds to "go around" for another landing attempt. The controller's voice gets slower and more emphatic. The instructions were met with silence, according to the audio clip posted at LiveATC.net. The air traffic control supervisor then used a flashing "red light gun" shined from the control tower windows toward the plane to alert the crew, Gregor said. Doing so is a standard procedure when an air crew does not respond to radio instructions. "Air Canada did not respond to the verbal instructions or to the light gun instruction," Gregor said. The flight landed about 9:30 p.m. He said that a radar replay showed the runway was in fact cleared of the earlier arrival by a Southwest Airlines jet when the Air Canada plane landed. Air Canada spokesman Peter Fitzpatrick said the company was investigating the incident. "After receiving proper clearance to land it proceeded to do so and landed normally. Upon landing the crew was informed the tower had attempted unsuccessfully to contact the aircraft, however the message was not received by the crew," Fitzpatrick said. Pilots say monitoring radio traffic is especially important in San Francisco because its layout of two sets of parallel runways means controllers often give them last-minute instructions on airspeed and other issues. They say that silence from the tower at the busy airport should have been a clear message to the Air Canada crew. "The hair on the back of my neck would raise up if I'm not hearing anything on the tower frequency for 10 seconds in San Francisco," longtime American Airlines pilot Chris Manno said. John Cox, a former airline pilot and now a safety consultant, said now and then tower instructions are lost because of other chatter on the radio. But "It is uncommon for a communications difficulty to go on as long as this one did," he said. Pilots, he said, develop a sixth sense telling them when radio silence indicates a problem. Pilots are trained to respond to the flashing-light warnings the FAA said were used in the airport tower. Manno said the light signal is obvious - green means land, red means go around - but he had never encountered such a warning while flying an airliner, only while piloting Air Force planes. Cox said he was not surprised the Air Canada crew did not react to the warning. "If they are not looking at the tower - which is not something you normally do - you won't see it," he said. On July 7, Air Canada pilots mistook the taxiway for the runway next to it and flew their jet to just 59 feet (18 meters) above ground before pulling up to attempt another landing, according to the National Transportation Safety Board. That's barely taller than the four planes that were on the taxiway. Air Canada has not said whether the pilots were disciplined. In response to the incident, the FAA issued new procedures in August for when a runway parallel to a plane's designated runway is closed, as it was July 7. Air traffic controllers may no longer let pilots make so-called visual approaches to land. Instead, they must use instrument landing systems or satellite-based systems to line up for the correct runway. The FAA also stipulated that two controllers must be in the airport tower during busy late-night periods. Only one controller was working during the Air Canada incident. http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/air-canada-jet-safety-issue-san-francisco-airport- 50699058 Back to Top Some Bulgarian Pilots Refuse To Fly Russian MiG-29 Jets, Citing Safety Concerns A Russian MiG-29 fighter jets Some Bulgarian air force pilots have refused to fly their Soviet-built MiG-29 jets in planned training exercises, citing safety concerns with the outdated aircraft. "Some of the pilots from Graf Ignatievo air base will not perform training flights because of insecurity," Bulgarian Deputy Defense Minister Atanas Zapryanov said on October 24. The pilots have also cited concerns about poor preparedness due to a lack of flying hours, Zapryanov said, but he insisted that the jets are fully airworthy. Bulgaria joined NATO in 2004, but much of its military equipment is still Russian-made. Out of a fleet of 16, Bulgaria's air force currently has just seven aging MiG-29 aircraft in good flying order. The Balkan country has launched a 770-million-euro tender to replace them with eight new fighter jets. Prime Minister Boyko Borisov's conservative government has been fighting President Rumen Radev - a former fighter pilot - and opposition Socialists since May over the purchase of the new aircraft. At one point, an interim government appointed by Radev decided that Bulgaria would buy Swedish- made Gripen jets. But a parliamentary committee in June vetoed that, and instead asked for proposals to buy Portugal's secondhand U.S. F-16 jets and Eurofighter Typhoons. Defense Minister Krasimir Karakadzhanow accused the boycotting pilots of starting a politically- motivated campaign. He insisted that Bulgaria will renovate all its MiG-29s and about 20 Russian- made Su-25 bombers. The ministry recently received four new MiG-29 engines and six used ones in a deal with Russia, but problems with documentation have delayed their use. As a NATO member, Bulgaria has an obligation to keep at least one squadron of 12 planes in good fighting order. Since February 2016, the country's inability to do so has forced the parliament to authorize NATO to help protect its air space. https://www.rferl.org/a/bulgaria-pilots-refuse-fly-russian-mig29-jets-citing-safety-concerns- nato/28814272.html Back to Top Perth Skyshow plane crash: ATSB probes other airshow disasters, safety standards The investigation into what caused a fatal plane crash on Australia Day in Perth has analysed other disasters including the 2015 Shoreham Airshow crash in the UK that killed 11 people. Perth pilot Peter Lynch and his passenger and partner Endah Cakrawati died when the Grumman G- 73 amphibious aircraft crashed into the Swan River during the City of Perth's annual Skyworks event on Australia Day. The seaplane nose-dived into the water about 5pm in a plunge the Australian Transport Safety Bureau said was "consistent with an aerodynamic stall". The plane broke on impact in front of hundreds of horrified witnesses gathered along the Swan River foreshore to watch an air display Mr Lynch was part of in the lead up to the fireworks show. In a statement to WAtoday, the Civil Aviation Safety Authority said Mr Lynch's aircraft was operating as part of an approved air display, which was given special permission to operate. Immediately after the crash, the ATSB began an investigation and is now probing the "planning, approval and oversight of the air display", sifting through years of data for the Perth event and other air displays across Australia, as well as "procedures and guidance relating to Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA)-authorised air displays". As part of its inquiry, the ATSB analysed the Shoreham Airshow crash, in which an ex-military Hawker Hunter jet aircraft failed to complete a loop manouevre and crashed into a highway, killing 11 people on the ground and injuring 13, including the pilot. The final report of a UK investigation into that crash concluded it was caused by pilot error, with the aircraft too low to safely complete the loop. The Shoreham Airshow crash killed 11 people on the ground. For the Perth crash, the ATSB had previously said it had "not identified any evidence to indicate that pilot incapacitation or aircraft serviceability were contributing factors to the collision with water". However, it looked at the Shoreham crash to compare the approval processes and safety regulations for airshows around the world with Australia. An ATSB image showing the flight path of the plane over the foreshore and river. "Preliminary analysis of this information has identified differences in the approval process within CASA, between civil and military (including combined) displays and between Australia and other countries," the ATSB said. "The ATSB is continuing to analyse this information, to determine whether there are any systemic safety issues in relation to authorised air displays." The investigation is continuing, with a final report expected to be completed by January 2018. http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/perth-skyshow-plane-crash-atsb-probes-other-airshow- disasters-safety-standards-20171025-gz7tqh.html Back to Top NTSB report: Airplane flying at 'low altitude' when hit power lines, crashed into river RAMSEY, Minn. (KMSP) - The small airplane that crashed into the Mississippi River near Ramsey, Minnesota earlier this month was flying below the tree line when it hit power lines and went into the water, according to a preliminary report from the National Transportation Safety Board. The Cessena 172M airplane was destroyed when it collided with power lines that crossed the Mississippi River on at 5:34 p.m. on Friday, Oct. 13 The pilot, Chad Rygwall of Princeton, and his wife, Jill, were both killed in the crash. According to the report, the flight was not operating on a flight plan. Video footage taken from the ground showed the airplane flying northwest at a low altitude along the river. The plane appeared to be near "treetop level." The airplane made a shallow left turn to follow a bend in the river about 200 yards east of the accident site, the report said. Four sets of power lines extend horizontally across the river approximately 200 yards beyond the bend. Witnesses reported seeing the airplane strike the power lines as it was flying along the river. "Several witnesses noted that the airplane was below the level of the trees, which lines both sides of the river," according to the report. "One witness initially thought that the pilot intended to fly under the power lines due to the low altitude of the airplane." The power lines are equipped with red aerial marker balls, according to the report. The NTSB is continuing to investigate the crash. http://www.fox9.com/news/ntsb-plane-crash-report Back to Top Southwest Airlines Flight Makes Emergency Landing in Amarillo AMARILLO - A Southwest Airlines flight makes an emergency in Amarillo following a smoke detector being set off. According to Captain Larry Davis of the Amarillo Fire Department, at about 11:30 this morning, a Southwest Airlines Boeing 737 made an emergency landing at Rick Husband Amarillo International Airport. According to a statement from Southwest Airlines, the captain of the flight made the decision to divert to Amarillo after the aft lavatory smoke detector was set activated. The flight was originally scheduled from Tulsa International Airport to Las Vegas McCarran International Airport. The airline says the smoke detector was set off by a passenger using a vaporizer, but that there was never any smoke. According to FlightAware.com, the flight departed at 12:57 p.m. for Las Vegas McCarran International Airport. http://www.myhighplains.com/news/southwest-airlines-flight-makes-emergency-landing-in- amarillo-3/843773902 Back to Top The Value of Safety Management Systems for Operators Large and Small By Stan Rose The Helicopter Safety Alliance recently held a Helicopter Safety Stand-Down in conjunction with the FAA Safety Team and the Virginia Department of Aviation. The Fredericksburg, Virginia, event was a success, and I look forward to meeting with more maintainers, pilots and managers at similar events around the country. One piece of feedback from an attendee was that there was "too much stuff about SMS." In other words, quit trying to shove safety management systems down our throats. We don't want to hear about it. Brother, I hear you. I used to think the same thing. I'm actually not that big of a fan of the Ph.D. safety guys. I also stop listening when they talk about the four pillars, the 12 principles - what does that all have to do with flying? This is where I'm supposed to reminisce about all the great flying that was done in the "ride ?em, wreck ?em, never check ?em days" of the 1960s and ?70s. We thought every limit was there to be exceeded - and we had the high accident rate that goes along with that attitude. One of the reasons I became an SMS convert is that it is a safety system that works in the real world. In fact, a key feature of an SMS is that it be effective in making your operation safer. In the past, operators would have a safety day, put some posters on the wall, and call it a day. SMS is different. It's not so much concerned with safety posters, although it does require that every person in your operation be committed to improving operational safety. In fact, they should care about it so much that they report - and sometimes self-report - when safety hazards occur. In SMS, you don't treat every hazard the same. Instead, you judge them according to severity and likelihood. In other words, how often would this happen, and if it happened, how bad would it be? Then you put the most effort into treating the worst hazards. And you keep track of what you did and measure its effects, so you can troubleshoot your strategy or methods if necessary. That's SMS. And frankly, I think it is a pretty good way to improve safety in helicopter operations. But don't just take my word for it. The FAA, EASA, Transport Canada, the U.S. Helicopter Safety Team - and those Ph.D. safety guys - they all say the same thing: modern aviation safety is SMS. In fact, the FAA so believes in SMS that it is a centerpiece of the agency's new compliance philosophy. Under the new policy, introduced in 2015, the FAA has moved away from a punitive approach to unintentional deviations or noncompliance with the FARs. Operators who have an active SMS program will receive counseling or education instead. The compliance philosophy is not about punishment. Instead, it's about helping the operator to move back into compliance. Of course, intentional deviation or reckless behavior will still be dealt with sternly by the FAA. A friend of mine calls the compliance philosophy a "warm, fuzzy blanket wrapped around a brick." Still, it's good to know that if you are an operator with an active SMS program, violations or certificate actions are NOT going to be the first thing on the table when you have an FAA issue. If you are serious about safety in your operation - and remember, modern aviation safety is spelled SMS - you get the blanket, not the brick. However, while SMS isn't complicated, it's also not easy, particularly when you have to think about safety in an entirely different way. And for small operators, SMS can seem a distraction from the important tasks of keeping customers happy and finding new customers to keep happy. SMS may seem like a big mountain to climb, but I firmly believe that it is a worthwhile journey. While I appreciate the SMS fatigue that some of you may be feeling, I'm afraid that I can't stop talking about something that I think is so important for our industry. The Helicopter Safety Alliance believes SMS will make a difference in your operational safety, and we plan to help you get there. Producing free safety education events for pilots, maintainers and managers is one way HSA wants to help. And in the coming months, the HSA will introduce programs that are specifically designed to help small helicopter operations enjoy the same level of safety as the big guys. If you want to learn more about SMS, please attend a Helicopter Safety Stand-Down in your area. Stan Rose is the CEO of the Helicopter Safety Alliance. http://www.rotorandwing.com/2017/10/24/value-safety-management-systems-operators-large- small/ Back to Top FAA Hosts Fifth General Aviation Summit October 24- We're pleased with where general aviation safety is headed. The numbers aren't final, but it looks like 2017 will end up being our safest year yet. Working together with industry to meaningfully address safety is making a difference and we're going to continue our collaboration to make GA even safer. It's an issue that needs to be approached from many angles - some regulatory, some technological, some educational. And that's the driving force behind the fifth annual General Aviation Safety Summit we held with our government and industry partners today. We've made substantial progress since last year's gathering. The General Aviation Joint Steering Committee (GAJSC) continues to implement targeted safety enhancements. We finalized the Part 23 rule that will help decrease the time to get safety-enhancing technologies for small airplanes to the marketplace. The Fly Safe educational campaign has reached millions of our social media followers with information on how to avoid loss of control accidents. And in collaboration with aviation training community experts, last summer we updated key elements of the airman certification system to include an enhanced focus on risk management. There's no silver bullet when it comes to making GA safer. We have to remain vigilant and keep finding new ways to advance our shared safety mission. The GA community has been willing to roll up their sleeves and ask, "How can we fix this - together?" With that kind of attitude, I know we can tackle anything that comes our way - and get ever closer to the day when general aviation fatalities are a thing of the past. http://www.aviationpros.com/press_release/12376511/faa-hosts-fifth-general-aviation-summit Back to Top Why the NTSB Chairman and an FBI Psychologist Are Coming to Wichita Oct. 20--The chairman of the National Transportation Safety Board and an organizational psychologist from the FBI will be among the speakers at Bombardier Business Aircraft's Safety Standdown. The annual aviation safety training seminar, set for Oct. 31-Nov. 2 at the Hyatt Regency Wichita, is in its 21st year. Robert Sumwalt, who was sworn in as the NTSB's 14th chairman in August, is scheduled to speak and lead workshops on two of the event's three days. So is the FBI's Amy Grubb, who will lead workshops on changing mindsets, values, and culture within organizations. They are among a cadre of speakers and workshop leaders at the seminar, which this year will also include live firefighting and water evacuation training exercises for attendees. Last year's event attracted 500 pilots and others from the industry. http://www.aviationpros.com/news/12376063/brief-why-the-ntsb-chairman-and-an-fbi- psychologist-are-coming-to-wichita Back to Top F-35A Pilots Report Five More Hypoxia-Like Episodes U.S. Air Force F-35s at Luke AFB, Arizona, are back in the skies after a spate of so-called physiological episodes (PEs) caused the service to ground the aircraft this summer, but the troubling events have continued across the service's F-35 fleet, with pilots reporting tingling fingers and other symptoms that indicate hypoxia five separate times since flights resumed at Luke. These incidents reflect a significant spike in PEs recorded on the F-35A in the past few months. From 2006-2016 the type saw just 10 PEs; in 2017 so far, the F-35 Joint Program Office has recorded another 10, doubling the overall number reported. Five of those 10 took place between May 2 and June 8 at Luke, and caused the Air Force to temporarily ground the F-35s at that base. Since Luke F-35s resumed flying, pilots there have reported three additional PEs, according to Col. Ben Bishop, commander of the 56th Operations Group and an F-35 pilot. The symptoms were milder than in the initial five events, and in each instance the pilots were able to safely recover the aircraft, he told Aviation Week in an Oct. 23 interview. The rate of PEs in the F-35A is significantly higher than in the other F-35 variants. Overall from 2006-2017, the JPO recorded 29 PEs across all variants of the F-35: 20 in the F-35A; four in the U.S. Marine Corps F-35B; and five in the U.S. Navy F-35C. After months of investigating, the team looking into the F-35A PEs has yet to find one root cause of the problem. The team still is not sure whether the incidents indicate true hypoxia-a lack of oxygen in the blood-or any number of similar physiological states, for instance hypercapnia (high levels of carbon dioxide in the blood, sometimes caused by hyperventilation), histotoxic hypoxia (the presence of a toxin), decompression sickness, or even simply dehydration, lack of sleep, or nervousness. But although the incidents continue to occur at Luke and elsewhere, the team is at least narrowing down the problem. The JPO recently briefed the squadron on the test results from the F-35's Onboard Oxygen Generation System (Obogs), which showed no problems with the system, Bishop said. The PE team is looking at ways to refine the algorithm that controls the fluctuations in oxygen concentration levels so the Obogs delivers oxygen at a steadier rate, potentially making breathing easier. But in all cases the Obogs is producing enough oxygen to sustain the pilot, he stressed. Bishop also is confident the problem is not caused by contamination. There are no indications of carbon monoxide or other toxins on the ramp, or during pilot examinations, he said. There is one telling aspect of the incidents that may prove key to solving the problem. In each of the three incidents that occurred since June, initiating the backup oxygen system did not immediately ease the pilots' symptoms. This indicates the problem is not true hypoxia, Bishop said. During pilot training in the Reduced Oxygen Breathing Device (ROBD), which simulates hypoxia, "when you go to 100% oxygen you get relief immediately; that's not happening in a lot of cases here," Bishop said. Bishop believes pilots could be experiencing hypercapnia-too much carbon dioxide in the blood-due to restricted breathing, potentially caused by the life support system. He does not think the cause is hyperventilation. "I think there might be something based on how the machine and the human are interacting that's altering the breathing," Bishop said. "So we're obviously very interested in understanding how the valves are working and making sure our pilots can exhale comfortably. If you are having trouble exhaling that can change the way your body normally breathes, which can have unintended consequences." The team is looking at all pieces of the flight equipment for an indication of something that would restrict pilot breathing and is taking steps to make the life support system as robust as possible, Bishop said. Already, the Air Force has made a number of changes to flight equipment to mitigate the potential for restricted breathing, including reducing the weight of the flight vest to make breathing easier, and making changes to the exhalation valve on the mask to prevent sticking. The pilots also have the option to wear pulse oximeters to measure their blood oxygen levels during flight. However, these devices are not always reliable as they can slip off, Bishop said. Initially, there was a lot of concern in the pilot community at Luke over the spike in PEs, Bishop acknowledged. "I will say, just being very frank and open with you, when we stood down that first day there were some pilots that were not comfortable flying the airplane," said Bishop. He stressed that those pilots were in the minority. But despite the three additional incidents, pilots have regained confidence both in their leadership and in the F-35 life support system since flights resumed. The squadron took steps to ensure pilots knew they could express their concerns, for instance organizing focus groups for the pilots and town halls for the families. The squadron and the PE team also took steps to educate the pilots on the incidents as well as how to recognize their own unique hypoxia symptoms, for instance by training in the ROBD. "To be honest, there was some misinformation at first, people were not fully aware of exactly how the systems played out and initially there was some concern in the backup oxygen system," Bishop said. "But by the end of the stand-down, through that education process, the pilots were comfortable." Today, although the pilots realize the team may never find a single smoking gun, they have "high confidence" that in the event of a PE they will be able to turn on the backup oxygen system and safely recover the aircraft, Bishop stressed. That is the "number one threshold" for continuing flying operations, he said. "We are not going to make any pilot that's not comfortable flying the aircraft, who doesn't have confidence in the F-35's life support system-we're not going to make them fly," Bishop said. "Up to this point pilot confidence has been high enough that everyone has been able to return to fly." www.aviationweek.com Back to Top IATA: 2036 Forecast Reveals Air Passengers Will Nearly Double to 7.8 Billion 24-Oct-2017 The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects 7.8 billion passengers to travel in 2036, a near doubling of the 4 billion air travelers expected to fly this year. The prediction is based on a 3.6% average Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) noted in the release of the latest update to the association's 20-Year Air Passenger Forecast. "All indicators lead to growing demand for global connectivity. The world needs to prepare for a doubling of passengers in the next 20 years. It's fantastic news for innovation and prosperity, which is driven by air links. It is also a huge challenge for governments and industry to ensure we can successfully meet this essential demand," said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA's Director General and CEO. Eastward shift, developing market focus The biggest driver of demand will be the Asia-Pacific region. The region will be the source of more than half the new passengers over the next two decades. The point at which China will displace the United States as the world's largest aviation market (defined as traffic to, from and within the country) has moved two years closer since last year's forecast. We now anticipate this will occur around 2022, through a combination of slightly faster Chinese growth and slightly reduced growth in the US. The UK will fall to fifth place, surpassed by India in 2025, and Indonesia in 2030. Thailand and Turkey will enter the top ten largest markets, while France and Italy will fall in the rankings to 11th and 12th respectively. Risks, opportunities and sustainability A number of risks to the forecast have been identified. Maximizing the potential benefits of aviation growth will depend on current levels of trade liberalization and visa facilitation being maintained. If trade protectionism and travel restrictions are put in place, the benefits of air connectivity will decline as growth could slow to 2.7%, meaning 1.1 billion fewer passenger journeys annually in 2036. Conversely, if moves towards liberalization increase, annual growth could be more than two percentage points faster, leading to a tripling in passengers over the next 20 years. Planning for growth will require partnerships to be strengthened between the aviation industry, communities and governments to expand and modernize infrastructure. Runways, terminals, and ground access to airports will come under increasing strain. Innovative solutions to these challenges, as well as to the baggage and security processes, cargo handling, and other activities, will also be needed. And air traffic management needs urgent reform to cut delays, costs and emissions. "Increasing demand will bring a significant infrastructure challenge. The solution does not lie in more complex processes or building bigger and bigger airports but in harnessing the power of new technology to move activity off-airport, streamline processes and improve efficiency. Through partnerships within the industry and beyond, we are confident that sustainable solutions for continued growth can be found," said de Juniac. The aviation industry has adopted a robust strategy to reduce its environmental impacts, particularly its carbon emissions. "No industry has done more to meet its environmental obligations than aviation. Our tough targets to achieve carbon-neutral growth from 2020 and to cut our CO2 emissions to half-2005 levels by 2050 are backed by a comprehensive strategy. Our immediate aims are to work with governments to increase the production of sustainable aviation fuels, and to deliver air traffic management efficiencies, which promise significant emissions savings. And from 2020, a Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) will play a major role in meeting our carbon-neutral target," said de Juniac Key facts (all figures based on central growth forecast) Fast-growing markets The five fastest-growing markets in terms of annual additional passengers in 2036 compared to 2016 will be China (921 million new passengers for a total of 1.5 billion) US (401 million new passengers for a total of 1.1 billion) India (337 million new passengers for a total of 478 million) Indonesia (235 million new passengers for a total of 355 million) Turkey (119 million new passengers for a total of 196 million). Many of the fastest-growing markets are achieving a compound growth rate of more than 7.2% per year, meaning their market will double in size each decade. Most of these markets are in Africa, including: Sierra Leone, Benin, Mali, Rwanda, Togo, Uganda, Zambia, Senegal, Ethiopia, Ivory Coast, Tanzania, Malawi, Chad, Gambia and Mozambique. Regional growth Routes to, from and within Asia-Pacific will see an extra 2.1 billion annual passengers by 2036, for an overall market size of 3.5 billion. Its annual average growth rate of 4.6% will be the third- highest, behind Africa and the Middle East. The North American region will grow by 2.3% annually and in 2036 will carry a total of 1.2 billion passengers, an additional 452 million passengers per year. Europe will also grow at 2.3%, and will add an additional 550 million passengers a year. The total market will be 1.5 billion passengers. Latin American markets will grow by 4.2%, serving a total of 757 million passengers, an additional 421 million passengers annually compared to today. The Middle East will grow strongly (5.0%) and will see an extra 322 million passengers a year on routes to, from and within the region by 2036. The total market size will be 517 million passengers. Africa will grow by 5.9%. By 2036 it will see an extra 274 million passengers a year for a total market of 400 million passengers. https://centreforaviation.com/members/direct-news/iata-2036-forecast-reveals-air-passengers- will-nearly-double-to-78-billion-378749 Back to Top Exclusive: Saudi Arabia's flyadeal to seek bids on 50-aircraft order within month Low-cost airline owned by the national airline of Saudi Arabia looks to ramp up operations Saudi Arabia's newest airline flyadeal will choose either the Airbus A320 or Boeing 737 for its 50- plane order. Regis Duvignau/Reuters Flyadeal, the low-cost airline owned by the national airline of Saudi Arabia, will issue a request for proposal (RFP) bids for 50 aircraft in the next month, the carrier's chief executive said. "We're looking at around 50 aircraft including options. This will be with the manufacturers," Con Korfiatis told The National. "We expect to issue that RFP very shortly over the next month." The Jeddah-based airline, which started operating last month on the kingdom's national day, has leased aircraft to date but is considering a fleet order of narrowbody Airbus A320s or Boeing 737s, Mr Korfiatis said. A choice of either plane models would have a projected value of US$5 billion at average listed prices before discount. "We are taking an open mind with this, we are going out and asking the manufacturers to put their best forward ... because this will be the long-term decision for flyadeal and whatever way that falls we expect the outcome of it will be that we will be seeking one aircraft type. It doesn't mean it's going to be the A320. It could be [the 737]," Mr Korfiatis said. Independent of the potential plane order, the budget carrier will have a fleet of five A320s by the end of this year and eight by mid-2018. Financing of the planes could comprise a "range of possibilities" that may include bank loans and other various other forms of financing, he added. "That's a decision that hasn't been made. It's not out of the question, it's a possibility," Mr Korfiatis said when asked if the carrier has plans to IPO. As part of its economic diversification drive, the National Transformation Programme and Vision 2030 which aim to lessen the country's dependence on oil, Saudi Arabia is privatising its transport industry, eventually transferring ownership of all its airports to its sovereign wealth fund known as the Public Investment Fund. The government wants state-owned assets to function efficiently, generate returns as private companies, effectively removing the operational and financial burden on the state. In 2012, Saudi Airlines Catering raised $347 million in a 30 per cent listing of its shares. Flyadeal, which is owned by Saudia, started flying from Jeddah to the capital Riyadh in September with a promotion fare of 48 Saudi riyals (Dh46.99). The carrier's standard fares start at 98 riyals. The airline will have about eight aircraft before the middle of next year that have been leased from Dubai Aerospace Enterprise. The immediate focus is to cover the domestic market in the kingdom with an eye to expanding regionally and eventually flying to international destinations. "We don't feel we can succeed and be effective unless we offer a full network offering to the customers in the kingdom and the region," Mr Korfiatis said. "In a four to five-year timeframe we see ourselves to flying to over 60 routes domestic and regional." Mr Korfiatis declined to specify a passenger load factor on flights since starting operations, but said they were running high. Flyadeal competes with Riydah-based budget carrier Flynas, which began operating in 2007 and is partly owned by Kingdom Holding, the investment vehicle of Prince Alwaleed bin Talal. Regionally, the flyadeal will compete with the Sharjah-based low-cost carrier Air Arabia, flydubai and Kuwait's Jazeera Airways. Flyadeal will consider tapping into the Indian subcontinent market in the future when it begins to expand internationally; leveraging the large number of people from that region who reside in the Middle East. "That certainly will figure in our international expansion plans," Mr Korfiatis said. His outlook for the aviation and travel industry is bullish as tourism and transportation growth figures factor prominently in the continued recovery of the world economy. "The proportion of global GDP that those sectors are expected to represent in the years to come is massive and its driven, really a lot, by the change in lifestyle," he said. "If you look at the current generation of millennials, which are a huge proportion of the customers we are getting on flyadeal in the kingdom at the moment, they are more curious, far more interested in travel and exploring and getting around. "Airlines are the facilitators, we are the enablers ... If the airline industry doesn't continue to grow those outcomes won't happen," Mr Korfiatis said. " We believe they will happen because there's an appetite for them." https://www.thenational.ae/business/aviation/exclusive-saudi-arabia-s-flyadeal-to-seek-bids-on- 50-aircraft-order-within-month-1.670084 Back to Top Paul Weitz, astronaut who helped repair Skylab and commanded space shuttle, dies at 85 Paul Weitz, right, with Joseph Kerwin, left, and Charles Conrad Jr., the astronauts who repaired the Skylab orbiting laboratory in 1973. (AP/ASSOCIATED PRESS) Paul Weitz, an astronaut who took part in a tension-filled mission to repair the Skylab orbiting laboratory in 1973 and who returned to space 10 years later as commander of the space shuttle Challenger on its maiden voyage, died Oct. 22 at his home in Flagstaff, Ariz. He was 85. The cause was blood cancer, said his son, Matt Weitz. Mr. Weitz, a onetime Navy aviator, was part of a crew originally scheduled to conduct scientific experiments aboard Skylab, which was launched May 14, 1973. It rapidly became apparent that the $2.5 billion space station was seriously damaged. Electronic signals indicated that Skylab's heat shield, which protected the space laboratory from meteoroids and high temperatures, had been sheared off during liftoff. One of the two solar panels, which produced electricity, also had been torn away, and the other was inoperable. The mission of Mr. Weitz and his fellow astronauts, Charles P. "Pete" Conrad Jr. and Joseph Kerwin, suddenly shifted from science to something more like an outer-space roadside assistance call. Their launch was delayed several days while NASA engineers assessed problems aboard Skylab and devised tools and equipment for the repairs. Paul Weitz, foreground, preparing for the launch of the Skylab flight with Charles Conrad Jr. and Joseph Kerwin in 1973. (AP/ASSOCIATED PRESS) "Never before had a spacecraft gone up amid such an atmosphere of last-minute improvisation," Time magazine reported. The astronaut crew was commanded by Conrad, who was on his fourth space flight and in 1969 had become the third person to walk on the moon. Kerwin was a medical doctor, and Mr. Weitz was the mission's pilot. After the astronauts' Apollo spacecraft reached Skylab, Conrad looked at the damage and confidently radioed to NASA flight-control officials, "I think we can take care of it." Mr. Weitz leaned out of the hatch of the Apollo capsule, as Kerwin held on to his ankles to keep him from floating away. It was not unlike leaning out the open door of a car traveling on a highway, trying to repair the engine of a car in the next lane. Using a long-handled hook, Mr. Weitz reached for the solar panel and "gave a mighty heave." The 30-foot solar panel didn't budge. Next, using a pair of long shears similar to those used for trimming branches, Mr. Weitz attempted to cut through a twisted aluminum strap securing the solar panel. His curses could be heard on the transmissions back to mission control in Houston. After an hour, it was clear that the effort would be futile. "I hate to say it," Mr. Weitz admitted, "but we ain't going to do it with the tools we've got." The crew regrouped inside the Apollo capsule, then found an unexpected problem: The docking mechanism that would connect the command module to Skylab did not work properly. The astronauts climbed outside their capsule and spent two hours doing mechanical repairs before the space vehicles were linked. Conrad and Kerwin, working in tandem with a bolt cutter attached to a 25-foot pole, later managed to free the solar panel. The astronauts also worked to install an improvised sun screen on Skylab's exterior. "We had to get the temperatures under control if we were going to salvage Skylab at all," Mr. Weitz said in a 2000 NASA oral history. The astronauts had three options, with different pipes and fabrics aboard their spacecraft, and ultimately they chose a four-legged "parasol" designed by Jack A. Kinzler, sometimes called NASA's "Mr. Fix-It." The parasol was mostly a success, although one of its legs didn't extend fully, causing a noticeable variation in temperatures inside the Skylab laboratory. "Once we moved into the workshop, you could tell by feel," Mr. Weitz said. "You could outline exactly where the shadow from the parasol was." Another way the astronauts monitored the heat was by smell. NASA officials warned the crew to be careful about sampling the food aboard Skylab, suggesting that the roast beef, lobster and butterscotch pudding would have spoiled in temperatures exceeding 100 degrees. When the astronauts returned after 28 days - the longest space mission at that time - they were hailed as national heroes. Paul Joseph Weitz was born July 25, 1932, in Erie, Pa. His father was a Navy chief petty officer, and he was raised primarily by an aunt and uncle in Harborcreek, Pa. He was drawn to flight from an early age and studied aeronautical engineering at Pennsylvania State University. After graduating in 1954, he became a Navy pilot. He received a master's degree in aeronautical engineering from the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif., in 1964 and piloted planes during the Vietnam War. He retired at the rank of captain in 1976, a decade after entering the astronaut corps. NASA's space shuttle program began in 1981, with the launch of the Columbia. Mr. Weitz was tapped to be the commander of Challenger's first flight in April 1983. Everything went smoothly on the five-day mission. On Jan. 28, 1986, Challenger exploded 73 seconds after takeoff, killing all seven crew members on board. Mr. Weitz, who had trained the crew while serving as deputy chief of NASA's astronaut corps, testified before a presidential commission investigating the cause of the disaster. He later served as deputy director of the Johnson Space Center in Houston and retired in 1994 as acting director. His wife of 61 years, the former Suzanne Berry, died in 2016. Survivors include two children, Matt Weitz of Dallas and Cynthia DiFranco of Flagstaff; and a sister. https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/obituaries/paul-weitz-astronaut-who-helped-repair-skylab- and-commanded-space-shuttle-dies-at-85/2017/10/24/03aff1dc-b8cd-11e7-a908- a3470754bbb9_story.html?utm_term=.9d1402e030df Back to Top Improve the Safety of Your Airport's Runway The robust agenda of the AAAE Runway Safety Summit includes topics that will improve the safety of your airport's runway, including: * Advances in Runway Safety Technology * The Latest on Runway Incursions: Data Trends and Case Studies FAA Runway Safety Initiatives Roundtable * Runway Safety Town Hall Meeting: An Open Discussion on Issues and Best Practices Your attendance can be a matter of life and death. Don't miss this important opportunity and register to attend, November 6-8, 2017, in Orlando, Florida. REGISTER NOW AGENDA Contact Information Program Information: Justin Towles, AAAE 703.797.2538 Sponsorship and Exhibit Information: Janet Bennett, AAAE 703.797.2533 Registration and Hotel Information: Jonna Thoma, AAAE 703.797.2578 New HFACS workshop Las Vegas, NV December 12th & 13th, 2017 HFACS, Inc. offers professional development training on our innovative HFACS/HFIX methodologies. Our intensive, two-day workshops teach updated cutting-edge techniques to help your organization identify the causes of errors and develop preventative measures to lower your risk and improve performance. You have been included in our new email database as we begin using this important tool for communication on upcoming workshops as well as being the first to hear about any special offers. Please forward this to any interested co-workers so they may also stay How to register: To register visit hfacs.com or call 800-320-0833 or email dnlmccnn@gmail.com or info@hfacs.com Attendees of the workshop will learn how to: * Integrate human factors and system safety concepts into the root cause analysis (RCA) process * Utilize the Human Factors Analysis & Classification System (HFACS®) to identify systemic causes of human error during accidents, incidents, and/or near misses. * Integrate HFACS into traditional RCA tools like the fishbone diagram, fault trees, and link analysis using HFACS * Implement the Human Factors Intervention matriX (HFIX®) to develop innovative corrective action programs Develop a human error database and tracking system for monitoring and evaluating performance improvement efforts All attendees of the workshop will receive: * HFACS-RCA Handbook (including HFACS Interview Guide & HFACS/HFIX Checklists) * Complimentary Associate HFACS Professional (AHP) Certification * Opportunity to join the largest Listserv catering to human factors accident investigation and error management Already attended a 2-day workshop? Don't miss out on our special offers! * Our workshops have been updated to feature the newest information * If you have already attended our 2-day HFACS course, don't miss out on the opportunity to attend another workshop as a "refresher" for a discounted rate of $200 * Or bring a full-paying customer with you and receive free refresher course registration * For any additional questions and information, contact info@hfacs.com or call 800-320-0833 GRADUATE RESEARCH SURVEY REQUEST I am a student of Air Transport Management at City University of London. I am in the final stage of writing my dissertation on Human Machine Interaction. However, I am looking for some data in order to have a better understanding of the real issues among pilots. I would like to kindly ask, if you could complete my survey attached: https://it.surveymonkey.com/r/JBZG6FJ Thank you. Kind Regards, Yari Franciosa Curt Lewis