January 18, 2018 - No. 005 In This Issue ARGUS 2018 TRAINING COURSES Leonardo Helicopters Opens Mx Facility at Milano Linate Prime Air Transport World Names ANA 2018 Airline of the Year More M&A Activity Expected In 2018 NTSB: Severe Vibration Triggered Bell 525 Breakup SR Technics Malaysia Receives CAAC Certification FAA Urges UK Action On Repair Station Status FAA Faces Furloughs in Event of Government Shutdown Emirates says 'no' to stake in loss-making Air India Kazakh airports and airlines to be checked for safety. SpaceX, Boeing face questions on flight safety Leonardo Helicopters Opens Mx Facility at Milano Linate Prime Through an agreement with FBO manager Sea Prime, Leonardo Helicopters opened a maintenance facility at Italian business aviation airport Milano Linate Prime last month, the helicopter OEM announced this week. Equipped to provide line maintenance for private and commercial AW109 and AW139 helicopters, the 10,764-sq-ft/1,000-sq-m facility in Milan is a part of Leonardo's plan to expand its support services. "With more than 100 support and training centers dedicated to the helicopter market all over the world and a strong commitment to constantly increase and improve our services, Leonardo confirms the mission to be close to its customers with the newest solutions, especially in the areas where they operate their helicopters," said Vittorio Della Bella, senior v-p of customer support and training for Leonardo Helicopters. "The agreement with Leonardo happens at a time of growth and development at Milano Linate Prime, both in terms of traffic and of infrastructure," said Sea Prime president and CEO Giulio De Metrio. "Milano Linate Prime has been a natural choice for Leonardo, due to the size and importance of the airport for business and general aviation traffic, including helicopters. This agreement allows [Sea Prime] to further expand the offer of [more] services at Milano Linate Prime, delivering additional value to our clients." https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/general-aviation/2018-01-17/leonardo-helicopters- opens-mx-facility-milano-linate-prime Back to Top Air Transport World Names ANA 2018 Airline of the Year NEW YORK, Jan. 16, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- Air Transport World (ATW), the leading media brand serving the information needs of the global airline and commercial air transport communities, announced today that All Nippon Airways (ANA), Japan's largest and only 5-Star airline, was named "Airline of the Year". This is the second time in five years that the airline has received this prestigious award. The 2018 Airline of the Year award will be presented as the top honor at ATW's 44th Annual Airline Industry Achievement Awards Ceremony on March 27, 2018, at The Mansion House in Dublin, Ireland. The ATW Airline Industry Achievement Awards recognize excellence across a broad range of airline operations and are widely considered as the most coveted in the air transport industry. To win ATW's Airline of the Year award, an airline must demonstrate exceptional achievements and capabilities across operations, financial performance, customer service, safety and labor relations. Its executive leadership must also clearly show innovation and strategic thinking that sets the company apart. "While there was stiff competition this year, we at ATW are proud to bestow this award to ANA," said Karen Walker, editor-in-chief of ATW. "With everything from its commitment to customer service to its global partnerships and superb management, ANA showed that it stood above its competitors." ANA, in its submission to ATW, cited several top accomplishments, built on a record of outstanding safety, performance, innovation and service. That has included new advances in customizing passengers' needs at all stages of the airport experience, including the check-in counter, lounges and at the boarding gate. ANA also has expanded in North America, adding Mexico City and Tokyo routes, and a new daily flight between Los Angeles (LAX) and Narita (NRT). And it became the first airline to support the XPRIZE foundation and to contribute in making the world a better place for mankind; launched ANA Global and enhanced benefits to ANA Mileage Club members; and began inaugural flights of its latest Star Wars™ themed aircraft, C-3PO™ ANA JET, a continuing project that now has four Star Wars livery planes. "We are honored to receive the Airline of the Year Award and to have been recognized for the dedicated efforts made at ANA," said Yuji Hirako, president and CEO of ANA. "This has been a remarkable year for ANA as we continued to expand internationally, deliver the highest level of customer service and differentiate ourselves in the competitive airline industry." Previous recent recipients of the ATW Airline of the Year award include American Airlines (2017); Etihad Airways (2016); Southwest Airlines (2015); Delta Air Lines (2014); ANA (2013); Air New Zealand (2012); and Emirates (2011). ATW will announce the other recipients of its 2018 Industry Achievement Awards winners later in January. For more information about the awards, attending the award ceremony and sponsorship opportunities, visit http://award.atwonline.com. ABOUT AIR TRANSPORT WORLD Air Transport World is part of the Aviation Week Network, the largest multimedia information and services provider for the global aviation, aerospace and defense industries that has a database of 1.2 million professionals around the world. Industry professionals rely on Aviation Week Network for analysis, marketing and intelligence. Customers include the world's leading manufacturers, suppliers, airlines, business aviation operators, militaries, governments and other organizations that serve this global market. The product portfolio includes Air Transport World, Aviation Week & Space Technology, AC-U-KWIK, Aircraft Blue Book, Airportdata.com, Air Charter Guide, AviationWeek.com, Aviation Week Intelligence Network, Business & Commercial Aviation, ShowNews, SpeedNews, Fleet and MRO forecasts, global maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) tradeshows and aerospace & defense conferences. ABOUT INFORMA Aviation Week Network is part of Informa, the international business intelligence, academic publishing, knowledge and events group. Informa serves commercial, professional and academic communities, helping them connect and learn, and creating and providing access to content and intelligence that helps people and businesses work smarter and make better decisions faster. Informa has over 7,500 colleagues in more than 20 countries and a presence in all major geographies. It is listed on the London Stock Exchange and is a member of the FTSE 100. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/air-transport-world-names-ana-2018-airline-of-the- year-300580960.html Back to Top More M&A Activity Expected In 2018 In the minds of many industry analysts, there's an air of inevitability about further aftermarket acquisitions in 2018. "MRO M&A activity will continue to be quite robust and consistent with the transaction volumes over the past few years," predicts Jonathan Berger, managing director of New York-based Alton Aviation Consultancy. An MRO-Network Twitter poll from early January reinforces Berger's prediction, with 86% of respondents believing more OEM-led acquisitions of aftermarket entities will occur this year. Less predictable, however, is pinpointing exactly where some of the industry's giants will look to do their aftermarket shopping. In the past six months since forming its Boeing Global Services unit, much of the aftermarket acquisition attention has centered on the buying intentions of Boeing, with the aircraft manufacturer pursuing a lofty aftermarket revenue target of $50 billion over the next decade. While it is unclear as to where Boeing will make any possible acquisitions, the company's president and CEO Dennis Muilenburg said in an October 2017 earnings call that near-term growth will likely emanate from parts, modifications and maintenance services while long-term hope lies in fields such as digital aviation and analytics. While Berger acknowledges much of the industry attention has focused on the likes of Boeing and Airbus using M&A to further their aftermarket growth objectives, he says Alton is keeping an eye on other areas of the industry ready for consolidation. "We're closely watching the tier one OEM system supplier space as an area where we could see increased consolidation," he says, citing potential similarities to 2017's $30 billion United Technologies pending acquisition of avionics giant Rockwell Collins. Richard Brown, principal at consultancy ICF International, is another analyst forecasting more M&A activity this year. He says it's likely that Boeing will make acquisitions or sign joint ventures in the services area, while large independent MROs such as AAR-having made their acquisition intentions known-may also be active. "I suspect that we'll continue to see OEMs seek to increase their share of the aftermarket by making acquisitions perhaps in value-added areas of the market such as distribution, surplus parts or part repairs," Brown says. "Acquisitions may help boost a geographical footprint or serve a segment of the market not as well addressed." Brown also feels that there is a possibility of some of the industry's smaller companies being acquired by existing MROs or OEMs that have niche capabilities such as additive manufacturing, specialized repairs, inventory management and big data analytics capability. Despite 2018 starting with private equity company BaltCap offloading Estonia's Magnetic MRO to Chinese engineering and repair specialist Guangzhou Hangxin Aviation Technology, Brown feels PE firms will remain interested in aviation manufacturing and MRO companies. Particularly, he says, ones in possession of proprietary technologies, good OEM relationships and positions on growth platforms. http://www.mro-network.com/maintenance-repair-overhaul/more-ma-activity-expected-2018 Back to Top NTSB: Severe Vibration Triggered Bell 525 Breakup The fatal July 6, 2016 in-flight break-up of Bell 525 flight test vehicle 1 (FTV-1) was caused by "severe vibration of the helicopter that led to the crew's inability to maintain sufficient rotor rotation speed (Nr), leading to excessive main rotor blade flapping, subsequent main rotor blade contact with the tail boom, and the resultant in-flight breakup," according to the NTSB final report released on January 16. The NTSB wrote, "Contributing to the severity and sustainment of the vibration, which was not predicted during development, were (1) the collective biomechanical feedback and (2) the attitude and heading reference system response, both of which occurred due to the lack of protections in the flight control laws against the sustainment and growth of adverse feedback loops when the 6- hertz airframe vibration initiated. Contributing to the crew's inability to maintain sufficient Nr in the severe-vibration environment were (1) the lack of an automated safeguard in the modified one- engine-inoperative software used during flight testing to exit at a critical Nr threshold and (2) the lack of distinct and unambiguous cues for low Nr." The vibration initiated at 92 percent Nr excited the main rotor scissors mode, meaning the adjacent blades were moving together and apart in a scissors motion. This resulted in a 6-Hz airframe vibration that, the NTSB concluded, "was transmitted to the crew seats and created a biomechanical feedback loop through the pilot-held collective control. A second feedback system, driven by the attitude and heading reference system (AHRS) inputs to the main rotor swashplate, also continued to drive the scissors mode and its resultant 6-Hz airframe vibration." The accident occurred during a simulated OEI (one engine inoperative) test with forward center of gravity at 185 knots. The test used special software to reduce the power in both engines to simulate OEI. At the time of the accident, FTV-1 was equipped with a combination flight data recorder/cockpit voice recorder (CVFDR), but it was not activated, nor was it required to be under FAA rules for flight test/experimental operations. Neither pilot made radio transmissions during the accident sequence, which was monitored from close range by a chase aircraft and by ground-based telemetry and test team members. They noticed the increased vibration during the fatal test and radioed instructions to "knock it off" during the accident sequence. The chase aircraft also radioed cautions to the FTV-1 pilots during the test about excessive blade flapping. The NTSB noted, "After the crew engaged OEI special training mode, rotor rotation speed (Nr) decayed from 100 percent to about 91 percent, and the crew began lowering the collective to stop Nr decay and increase Nr to 103 percent (the target Nr for recovery). About 5.5 seconds into the test, the crew stopped lowering the collective, and Nr only recovered to about 92 percent. About 6 to 7 seconds into the test, the helicopter began vibrating at a frequency of 6 Hertz. "The vibration was evident in both rotor systems, the airframe, the pilot seats, and the control inputs; the vertical vibration amplitude at the pilot seat peaked at about 3 G. Nr remained between about 90 percent and 92 percent until about 12 to 13 seconds into the test, then began fluctuating consistent with collective control inputs; subsequent collective control input increases led to further decay in Nr. "Nr decayed to about 80 percent as the collective was raised, and the main rotor blades began to flap out of plane. About 21 seconds into the test, the main rotor blades flapped low enough to impact the tail boom, severing it and causing the in-flight breakup of the helicopter," according to the NTSB report. RETURN TO FLIGHT TEST Since the crash, Bell has made numerous changes to the 525 and its test program. These include: * designing a software filter for the collective control law to dampen biomechanical feedback due to oscillatory control inputs as the frequency of control input increases; * adjusting the aero-servo-elastic model with a correlation factor to incorporate the aerodynamic effects observed during flight test and the accident test to preclude such occurrences seen in the accident flight's telemetry data; * performing shake tests with pilots using a side-stick collective to determine and incorporate the transfer function for human biomechanical feedback; * modifying the AHRS software filters to further reduce the AHRS response to a 6-Hz airframe vibration; * indicating that, for the 525, cockpit audio is now being recorded by an onboard CVFDR, and communications to and from the ground monitoring station are recorded by the CVFDR and the telemetry system during all flights (cockpit video is also being recorded by the instrumentation system and archived at the ground station); * issuing a company-wide business directive to ensure that cockpit audio is recorded during all telemetered flight test activities across all flight-test sites; * developing plans to conduct flight testing in the 95 percent to 100 percent range of Nr in an OEI condition; * developing plans to implement, for the 525, the unique low Nr aural tone in their test aircraft, and a software update that includes a larger font size for the Nr numeric display on the PSI; planning to implement a separate PBA specifically for low Nr and is incorporating more salient cues into the tactile cueing system; * planning to incorporate the automatic termination of OEI training mode should Nr fall below a certain limit; and * incorporating a safety officer for the accident helicopter model test program who will have dedicated safety-related responsibilities. Bell resumed flight testing of the 525 on July 7, 2017. In a prepared statement, Bell said, "An in- depth analysis of the flight data resulted in a thorough understanding of the corrective actions necessary, and appropriate changes to the aircraft have been implemented. A carefully planned approach is under way to complete the remaining certification flight testing. We remain committed to the 525 program-the continued work of the program team will result in a reliable, innovative helicopter with advanced rotorcraft safety features when it comes to market." Further, Bell said the changes/enhancements made to the 525 post-crash "are being carefully tested to ensure that our corrective actions have fully addressed the unique problem encountered on July 6, 2016." It said the vibrations encountered on the fatal flight were "the result of an unanticipated combination of very high airspeed with a sustained low rotor rpm condition." Due to the lack of a functioning CVR in the accident aircraft, investigators could only theorize why it took the test pilots so long to recover from the low Nr condition that soon became fatal. On previous OEI tests at slower speeds the crew had lowered the collective to 50 percent to recover, during the accident sequence it was lowered only to 58 percent. Recovery times required increased with airspeed. "Investigators explored possible reasons why the crewmembers stopped their recovery from the initial Nr drop, including a reaction to an abnormal condition on the helicopter, distraction from the recovery task, or a conservative response due to the high airspeed. Telemetry data does not indicate the existence of an abnormal condition when the crewmembers stopped their recovery," the NTSB noted. Based on interviews with Bell flight-test members, the NTSB noted, "Helicopter manufacturer test pilots indicated that they interpreted this trend as the tendency of the crew to be more judicious while applying collective at successively higher airspeeds to avoid recovering too fast and overspeeding the rotor or damaging the transmission. Thus, the crew may have been more conservative during recovery at the helicopter's high speed during the final test. The chief test pilot also stated that if Nr had stabilized, the pilot would not have been in a rush and was possibly initiating a slow recovery." https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/business-aviation/2018-01-17/ntsb-severe-vibration- triggered-bell-525-breakup Back to Top SR Technics Malaysia Receives CAAC Certification SR Technics is increasing its presence and capabilities in the Asia Pacific region with a new airworthiness certification from the Civil Aviation Authority of China (CAAC) for its Malaysia operations in Kuala Lumpur. The certification will enable SR Technics Malaysia to certify components for customers within the Chinese market. Additionally, SR Technics Malaysia will be able to complete component repair work on Airbus and Boeing aircraft in China for customers requiring CAAC certification. According to the MRO, this certification is an important milestone since SR Technics is expanding its component services in China and the Asia Pacific region. Last year, SR Technics CEO Jeremy Remacha told Aviation Week that the independent MRO is continuously evaluating new market opportunities to strengthen its global presence, especially in the Asia-Pacific market. The Malaysia facility, which opened in 2014, serves as SR Technics'customer center for component services in the region. The location includes a component maintenance service center for modification, overhaul, repair and testing of aircraft and engine components. In addition to CAAC certification for SR Technics Malaysia, SR Technics Switzerland renewed its existing CAAC certification. The company says this will allow it to continue granting Chinese airworthiness certificates from its Swiss maintenance facilities. http://www.mro-network.com/maintenance-repair-overhaul/sr-technics-malaysia-receives-caac- certification Back to Top FAA Urges UK Action On Repair Station Status As a member of EASA, the UK falls under the European regulator's reciprocal agreement with the FAA. Once the UK leaves the EU, and so EASA, old bilateral agreements with the U.S. will buffer the rest of the aviation industry, but not repair stations, threatening their maintenance work on and supply of spare parts to U.S. aircraft. Informal negotiations between the U.S. and UK have taken place, but the UK government has been slow to make any concrete decisions. An FAA source close to the issue, told MRO-Network.com: "There needs to be an orderly transition [next year], so we wanted clarity by the end of 2017, but here we are in the middle of January and we still have no idea. "There are two ways for the UK to go. One is to create a Swiss-type of agreement, that is separate from EASA, but recognised by it and so also the FAA." That solution would largely be a legal matter, relatively simple to implement. The alternative is for the FAA to certify every UK repair station. This would take years to complete and the cost of employing auditors would be considerable. The source stressed that is outcome is still only a matter of inefficiency, and safety would not be an issue. "Work continues, with a couple of teams going back and forth to draft a broad implementation plan and to develop safety nets to minimize disruption. "Even so, this involves doubling up resources, having to create tandem tracks that cover both outcomes," the source added. "That's just a waste. Really, there comes a point where the UK has just got to pick a team." http://www.mro-network.com/maintenance-repair-overhaul/faa-urges-uk-action-repair-station- status Back to Top FAA Faces Furloughs in Event of Government Shutdown U.S. lawmakers are still attempting to build support for a continuing resolution (CR) that would avert a shutdown of many government functions, including those involving the FAA. But the lack of a deal on the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program threatens the prospects for the CR. The federal government is funded through January 19, but negotiators are now pushing for an extension through February 16. Even with a CR, Congress still must come to a compromise on full-year appropriations. The House and Senate have authored full-year transportation appropriations bills that would provide a boost to FAA's funding in Fiscal Year 2018-the House, to $16.6 billion; and Senate, to nearly $17 billion. Additionally the Senate bill would outright ban a transition of FAA air traffic control functions to an independent entity, clearly outlining appropriator opposition to the ATC reorganization proposal. At press time, the FAA had not yet released a list of what it would shut down should lawmakers fail to adopt a CR before the January 19 deadline. When the government shut down in 2013, the FAA furloughed more than 15,000 employees and shuttered the aircraft registry in Oklahoma City, halting business aircraft transactions, title searches, and other necessary activities for aircraft financing and sales. That move was considered unprecedented, since the registry had remained open through previous shutdowns. Lawmakers had appealed to the FAA to keep the registry open and subsequently introduced legislation to prevent it from closing again in the event of a shutdown, including a measure offered just last summer by Sen. James Inhofe (R-Oklahoma). The measure also is included in the House and Senate reauthorization bills. But those bills have not yet been adopted into law. The General Aviation Manufacturers Association stressed that is another reason why Congress needs to reach agreement on long-term FAA reauthorization. A number of other aviation functions were affected during the 2013 shutdown, including ATC modernization efforts, aeromedical case reviews, and import/export of aircraft. Another concern, in particular for GAMA members, is the potential for disruption of certification efforts. Further, a number of FAA safety inspectors were furloughed. ATC functions, however, were deemed essential and continued to be provided. The series of continuing resolutions and specter of a shutdown has provided fuel to advocates of creating an independent user-funded ATC organization. "There is the exhausting potential for it to happen again...This cycle of dysfunction in funding perfectly underscores the critical flaws in the current system [and is] why A4A is advocating for air traffic control modernization," Airlines for America (A4A) president and CEO Nicholas Calio said when negotiations over the budget had loomed during a previous appropriations negotiation. https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/business-aviation/2018-01-17/faa-faces-furloughs- event-government-shutdown Back to Top Emirates says 'no' to stake in loss-making Air India The maharaja might be in for a wait before he finds his new foreign patron. The situation could prevail for a while despite the government paving way for 49 per cent foreign investment in the debt-laden nationalised airline. On Wednesday, Emirates Airlines told THE WEEK that it has "no plans" to buy or acquire stakes in Air India, despite the recent FDI offer from the Centre. "Emirates has no plans to buy or acquire any airline. We continue to focus on our organic growth," said Essa Sulaiman Ahmed, VP India and Nepal, Emirates Airlines. Hinting at the weak profitability in Air India operations, Essa said that Emirates "will partner with other airlines where it benefits our customers and makes commercial sense." Essa's statement also reflect the sentiments of its rival Etihad. India is a strong growing market for both the airlines but, are likely to refrain from buying any airlines in the country. UAE is the tenth major foreign direct investor in India; Mauritius tops the list with 34 per cent share and is trailed by Singapore and Japan. Last week, Vistara Airline CEO Leslie Thng had said that Singpore Airlines is 'open' to Air India divestments being done by the government. Malaysia-based budget-carrier Air Asia, too, had earlier refused interest in buying stakes in Air India. According to aviation ministry officials, the government is expecting that interest in Air India could come from both foreign airlines as well as interested individuals including NRIs. Industry sources believe that some Indian airline promoters also have pitched for buying stakes in the national carrier, and are looking at securing investors among the NRI community and friends in the aviation industry abroad. According to the government plans, Air India's divestment will include four associated companies- Air India's engineering, MSO (aircraft maintenance service), security and transport wings-all of which would be divested as companies separated from the airline entity. A parliamentary panel is overseeing the government proposals on Air India's disinvestment. Opposition leaders in the panel have rejected the government proposals and staged a walk-out from a meeting after disapproving the stake sale. The panel, headed by Trinamool Congress MP Derek O' Brien, draft a report that suggested that the ailing airline should remain state-owned, but albeit with a reduced stake. It also stated 11 reasons why the Air India stake sale would be adverse for the government. BJP members in the panel trashed the "adverse" draft report and called for its withdrawal in the absence of Chairman Derek O' Brien. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley had earlier said that the government wants to go ahead to dispose off the bleeding airline as soon as possible. http://www.theweek.in/news/biz-tech/Emirates-say-no-stake-loss-making-Air-India.html Back to Top Kazakh airports and airlines to be checked for safety The Civil Aviation Committee of Kazakhstan will conduct 59 certifications and 434 inspections of air transport enterprises in 2018 in order to control the safety of flights, Kazinform reported. 'In accordance with paragraph 1 of Article 16-2 of the Law 'On the use of the airspace of the Republic of Kazakhstan and aviation activities, the authorized body in the field of civil aviation annually adopts a program to ensure permanent supervision, which means a set of activities conducted by the authorized body in the field of civil aviation to maintain compliance of certified operators and civil aviation organizations with certification requirements and requirements of the legislation of the Republic of Kazakhstan on use of the country's airspace and aviation activities, according to the message of the committee. The committee specified that it is planned to check 20 operators engaged in commercial transportation, 36 operators performing aviation work, general aviation operators, 20 organizations for maintenance and repair of aviation equipment, 11 branches of Kazaeronavigatsiya RSE, 14 organizations involved in search-rescue flights support, 24 airports and airfield, 8 heliports, and 23 aviation training centers. Also, 25 foreign airlines, 4 aviation medical centers and 5 aviation medical experts, 44 different types of inspection and certification subjects of aviation industry will be checked. There have been several crashes including the one on October 3, 2017, that killed five people in Kazakhstan. At the time, an Antonov An-28 ambulance plane fell near Almaty. On August 10, a training aircraft Tecnam 2002 collapsed in the Almaty region and two people were killed. A similar catastrophe occurred on July 25 as a two-seater private plane crashed. As a result, a pilot was killed and a passenger was injured. Almost a month before that, the Yak-12 aircraft, owned by the airline Kazavia, crashed, and two people died. Kazakhstan has airports in Shimkent, Atbasar, Karaganda, Kyzyl-Orda, Balkhash, Burundai, Zaisan, Petropavlovsk, Semipalatinsk, Ust-kamenogorsk, Uralsk, Taldy-Kurgan, Kokshetau, Pavlodar, Zhezkazgan, Atyrau, Zhambyl, Zhairem, Ekibastuz, Almaty, Aktau, Kostanay, Aktyubinsk, Arkalyk, and Astana cities. Kazakhstan's existing airlines are Air Astana, Air Company MEGA, Avia Jaynar, Bek Air, Berkut Air, Euro-Asia Air, Excellent Glide, Irtysh-Air, SCAT, Semeyavia, Zhetysu, and Zhezkazgan Air. http://www.menafn.com/1096365903/Kazakh-airports-and-airlines-to-be-checked-for-safety Back to Top SpaceX, Boeing face questions on flight safety Boeing and SpaceX hope to launch commercial crew ferry ships on long-awaited test flights later this year, but both companies face major challenges getting the spacecraft certified before late 2019 when seats aboard Russian Soyuz spacecraft will no longer be easily available for NASA space station crews, officials told lawmakers Wednesday. And whenever they do eventually fly, the companies may not be able to meet NASA's stringent flight safety requirements. The agency wants the new spacecraft to have only one chance in 500 of losing a crew during ascent and entry, and an overall 1-in-200 chance of fatalities due to a spacecraft issue during a 210-day mission to the station. "The panel has been monitoring the providers' progress in working toward the LOC (loss of crew) requirements, and it appears that neither provider will achieve 1-in-500 for ascent/entry and will be challenged to meet the overall mission requirement of 1-in-200," Patricia Sanders, chairman of NASA's Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel, or ASAP, told the House Subcommittee on Space. Since the end of the space shuttle program in 2011, NASA has relied on the Russian Soyuz spacecraft to carry astronauts to and from the space station at more than $80 million a seat under the most recent contract. But in 2014, NASA awarded commercial crew contracts to Boeing and SpaceX to end the agency's sole reliance on the Russians. Boeing won a $4.2 billion contract to develop the CST-100 Starliner capsule while SpaceX won a separate $2.6 billion to build its Dragon crew craft. Both companies initially promised test flights in 2016 and 2017, but funding shortfalls in Congress slowed development. Boeing now hopes to launch the first Starliner spacecraft atop an Atlas 5 rocket on an unpiloted test flight in late August, following by a crewed demonstration flight in November. SpaceX has a similar schedule for its new Dragon crew ship, which will launch from the Kennedy Space Center atop an upgraded version of the company's Falcon 9 booster. NASA managers hope to certify the spacecraft for routine, operational crew ferry flights to the International Space Station early in 2019, well behind schedule because of earlier delays. Hedging its bets, the agency secured seats aboard Soyuz spacecraft through 2019. But that is the end of the road for routine flights aboard the Russian ferry ships. Bill Gerstenmaier, director of spaceflight operations at NASA, said it takes three years to build a Soyuz and given station operations are currently only planned through 2024, there are no plans to purchase any additional seats from the Russians. Cristina Chaplain, a senior manager at the Government Accountability Office, told lawmakers the current target for commercial crew certification is highly uncertain due to the amount of work remaining. "While Boeing and SpaceX are making significant progress, both continue to experience schedule delays," she said. "It's been three weeks since the program's original December 2017 goal to secure domestic access to the space station. Yet neither contract has yet to conduct a test flight. "In fact, final certification dates have slipped to the first quarter of calendar year 2019 and we found that the program's own analysis indicates that certification is likely to slip into December 2019 for SpaceX and February 2020 for Boeing." She said it's not unusual for advanced technology programs to experience delays, especially in a program that requires new human-rated spacecraft to operate with safety margins significantly higher than the space shuttle's. But frequent delays "and uncertain final certification dates raise questions about whether the U.S. will have uninterrupted access to the space station beyond 2019," she said. "NASA may have to purchase additional Soyuz seats, but as Mr. Gerstenmaier mentioned, there are limits to how it can do so." "Significant challenges to safety and reliability" Space Subcommittee Chairman Brian Babin, R-Texas, opened the two-hour hearing by saying SpaceX and Boeing "may not meet safety and reliability requirements and could even slip into cost overruns." "Both companies are making progress, but certainly not at the rate that was expected, and not without significant challenges to safety and reliability," he said. "In order to remedy these problems, NASA may seek additional funding or accept significant risk. Neither of those options is viable." Gerstenmaier agreed the program faces challenges, but he said NASA is working closely with Boeing and SpaceX to mitigate risks and representatives of both companies insisted they will be ready for initial test flights this summer with the first crewed test missions before the end of the year. All said crew safety is the top priority. "The NASA team is fully aware of the amount of work to go and the requirements that need to be completed, reviewed and closed by NASA and its partners," Gerstenmaier said. "NASA's been fully engaged with the partners during their design and testing and manufacturing processes. NASA's aware of the schedule, but not driven by the schedule." SpaceX came under more scrutiny from lawmakers than Boeing, presumably because SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket has suffered two catastrophic failures, one during a flight in 2015 and the other during a launch pad test in September 2016. United Launch Alliance's Atlas 5 has flown 74 successful missions in a row since the booster's maiden launch in 2002. Lawmakers questioned NASA's insight into the rocket's Russian-built RD- 180 first-stage engine, but Gerstenmaier said the agency was working to achieve that. No other Atlas-related questions were raised. The causes of SpaceX's two failures, and its plans to load astronauts on board before the Falcon 9 is loaded with propellants, drew repeated questions. SpaceX's first failure, in June 2015, destroyed a Dragon cargo ship bound for the International Space Station. The mishap was blamed on a defective strut in the rocket's second stage liquid oxygen tank that apparently fractured or broke away, releasing a high-pressure helium tank that was immersed in the oxygen. The helium vessel then shot up to the top of the oxygen tank, triggering the failure of the second stage. Flights resumed the following December using a new technique to increase booster performance using rocket propellants that are chilled below the temperatures employed by other rockets. The upgraded Falcon 9 uses colder-than-normal RP-1 kerosene fuel and super-cooled, or "densified," liquid oxygen loaded just 35 minutes before launch. The helium tanks, known as carbon composite overwrap pressure vessels, or COPVs, are submerged in the oxygen and subjected to those ultra-low temperatures. SpaceX reeled off nine successful flights in a row using densified propellants before a spectacular Sept. 1, 2016, on-pad explosion that destroyed another Falcon 9 and a $200 million communications satellite. That failure also involved the second stage helium pressurization system. SpaceX engineers were never able to pinpoint a "root cause," but eventually concluded the most likely scenario involved possibly frozen oxygen propellant trapped between the aluminum skin of a helium tank and its insulating carbon fiber overwrap. After extensive testing, "SpaceX modified its helium loading configuration, process and controls to ensure that the COPVs would not be exposed to these identified conditions and, accepting any residual risk, successfully resumed commercial launches with the existing COPV design," Sanders said. "However, to further improve safety, SpaceX and NASA agreed that a redesign of the COPV was necessary to reduce the risk for missions with crew on board," she added. A "rigorous" test program is underway and "the panel considers this to be the most critical step in clearing the COPV for human space flight." To use densified liquid oxygen, the super-cold propellant must be loaded just before launch. For piloted Dragon missions, that means the astronauts must be strapped in before liquid oxygen loading begins, a strategy known as "load and go." Many veteran rocket engineers have questioned the safety of that procedure, but Hans Koenigsmann, vice president of flight reliability at SpaceX, said it improves the Falcon 9's performance and at the same time enhances crew safety. "We try to minimize the time we expose personnel, not just astronauts but also (ground) crew, to the hazard of fueling," he said. "We strap them in, we make sure they're comfortable and then the ground crew retreats and we arm the pad abort system and then we start fueling the main propellants. It's a relatively quick procedure, and we believe this exposure time is as short as possible and, therefore, the safest approach." And in any case, he said, the Dragon's already-tested abort system would have saved a crew from an in-flight failure like the one in 2015 and it likely would have pulled a crew to safety in a rapid on- pad explosion like the most recent mishap. John Mulholland, vice president and program manager of Boeing's Starliner program, said the ASAP "appropriately has significant concerns" over the use of densified propellants. "Using this type propellant is something we considered years ago in the space shuttle program when we were looking for additional performance capability, but we never could get comfortable with the safety risks. When you're loading densified propellant, it's not an inherently stable situation." But Koenigsmann disagreed, saying earlier that liquid oxygen loaded in more traditional fashion is always boiling off and must be constantly replaced. "Some people say it is quiescent, but it's actually a constantly boiling process that needs to be refilled from the other side," he said. "So we don't consider that as a really quiescent stage, either." Gerstenmaier said NASA engineers are studying the "load and go" procedure and "we'll make an informed decision about when, for this particular rocket's design, is the safest time to put the crew (on board)." https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lawmakers-question-boeing-spacex-on-flight-safety/ Curt Lewis