Flight Safety Information March 15, 2018 - No. 054 In This Issue Incident: Lufthansa Cityline E190 at Nuremberg on Mar 14th 2018, problem with the landing gear Accident: Emirates B773 at Entebbe on Mar 14th 2018, flight attendant fell off aircraft Incident: Thai AirAsia A20N near Haikou on Mar 13th 2018, engine fire indication U.K....AAIB releases Annual Safety Review 2017 Mil Mi-171 Helicopter Accident (Senegal) Boeing F/A-18F Super Hornet In-Flight Fire (Florida) Boeing 787 being converted to VIP jet has unusual accident at Moses Lake airfield Passenger seriously hurt after falling down aircraft steps United Airlines mistakenly flies Kansas-bound German shepherd to Japan Bangladesh civil aviation authorities ordered to give highest priority to flight safety after crash United pilots union opposes more large jets at regional partners Surge in airline hiring boosts interest in aspiring pilots How Airbus And Boeing's Single-Aisle Jet Party Could End Kitty Hawk begins certifying its self-flying taxis for service in New Zealand GE starts flight trials for world's largest jet engine Live High Definition Video From Mars? NASA Is Getting Ready RESEARCH SURVEY BOOKS: The Air Crash Files: Thermal Runaway and JET BLAST POSITION AVAILABLE: AVIATION OPERATIONS SAFETY SPECIALIST Incident: Lufthansa Cityline E190 at Nuremberg on Mar 14th 2018, problem with the landing gear A Lufthansa Cityline Embraer ERJ-190, registration D-AECE performing flight LH-145 from Nuremberg to Frankfurt/Main (Germany) with 71 passengers and 4 crew, was in the initial climb out of Nuremberg's runway 28 when the crew stopped the climb at FL080 and returned the aircraft to Nuremberg for a safe landing on runway 28 about 30 minutes after departure. The airline reported a sensor indicated a technical problem with the landing gear, the crew suspected a burst tyre. The crew therefore decided to return to Nuremberg. No tyre was damage was found. The passengers were taken to Frankfurt by railway and bus. The Aviation Herald received information that the crew was unable to retract the landing gear. http://avherald.com/h?article=4b613eb6&opt=256 Back to Top Accident: Emirates B773 at Entebbe on Mar 14th 2018, flight attendant fell off aircraft An Emirates Boeing 777-300, registration A6-EGU performing flight EK-730 from Entebbe (Uganda) to Dubai (United Arab Emirates), was parked at the gate and was being prepared for boarding, when a flight attendant opened one of the aft doors for unknown reasons and fell out of the aircraft landing on the concrete surface of the apron. The flight attendant received serious inujuries and was taken to a hospital in critical condition. Uganda's Civil Aviation Authority reported an incident happened at Entebbe when a female flight attendant appeared to have opened an emergency exit and unfortunately fell off the aircraft while the aircraft was parked. The aircraft later departed and reached Dubai with a delay of 70 minutes. http://avherald.com/h?article=4b613282&opt=256 Back to Top Incident: Thai AirAsia A20N near Haikou on Mar 13th 2018, engine fire indication A Thai AirAsia Airbus A320-200N, registration HS-CBG performing flight FD-761 from Macau (Macau) to Bangkok Don Muang (Thailand) with 140 people on board, was enroute at FL340 about 90nm westsouthwest of Haikou (China) when the crew received a fire indication for the left hand engine (CFM Leap), shut the engine down and activated the fire suppression. The aircraft drifted down to FL240 and diverted to Udon Thani (Thailand), located about 370nm further westsouthwest, for a safe landing. A replacement Airbus A320-200 registration HS-BBT resumed the flight and reached Bangkok with a delay of about 4 hours. The airline reported the engine was examined however nothing out of the ordinary was found. The investigation into the cause of the fire indication is continuing. http://avherald.com/h?article=4b6134c2&opt=256 Back to Top U.K. AAIB releases Annual Safety Review 2017 14 March 2018 The U.K. Air Accidents Investigation Branch (AAIB) released its Annual Safety Review 2017. The AAIB reported that it received 708 occurrence notifications in 2017 and deployed 38 times to conduct field investigations, 16 of which were fatal accidents in the UK resulting in 28 deaths. A further 204 investigations were conducted by correspondence. Most of the fatal accidents involved General Aviation with the dominant causal factors being loss of control in flight and weather-related issues. A review of General Aviation accident reports published by the AAIB between 2010 and 2015, inclusive showed similar causal factors. The predominant causal factor was loss of control in flight, which accounted for almost half of the 72 accidents. Of these, most involved the aircraft entering an inadvertent stall and/or spin following engine failure, or during aerobatics. In 2017 the AAIB issued 29 Safety Recommendations from 8 investigations. As of the end of February 2018, responses have been received for 21 of these 29 recommendations. In assessing the responses, 15 were adequate and closed, 5 were partially adequate and 1 was not adequate. More information: * AAIBÂ Annual Safety Review 2017 Back to Top Mil Mi-171 Helicopter Accident (Senegal) Date: 14-MAR-2018 Time: Type: Mil Mi-171 Owner/operator: Senegal Air Force Registration: 6W-HTA C/n / msn: Fatalities: Fatalities: 6 / Occupants: 20 Other fatalities: 0 Airplane damage: Written off (damaged beyond repair) Location: nr Missirah - Senegal Phase: Nature: Departure airport: Ziguinchor Destination airport: Dakar Narrative: A Mi-171 helicopter crashed in a mangrove near Missirah, Senegal. https://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/wiki.php?id=207553 Back to Top Boeing F/A-18F Super Hornet In-Flight Fire (Florida) Date: 14-MAR-2018 Time: 16:30 LT Type: Boeing F/A-18F Super Hornet Owner/operator: US Navy (USN), VFA-213 Registration: C/n / msn: Fatalities: Fatalities: 2 / Occupants: 2 Other fatalities: 0 Airplane damage: Written off (damaged beyond repair) Location: off the coast of Key West, FL - United States of America Phase: En route Nature: Military Departure airport: NAS Oceana Destination airport: NAS Key West Narrative: The fighter jet crashed off the coast of Key West after caught fire mid-air near the Naval Air Station Key West. Both occupants ejected and were recovered by helicopter about one mile east of the runway and taken to the Lower Keys Medical Center. https://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/wiki.php?id=207549 Back to Top Boeing 787 being converted to VIP jet has unusual accident at Moses Lake airfield Photos of the incident show a forlorn airplane tipped on its nose after its front landing gear collapsed. The damage "looks like it could be quite expensive," says one expert. Some of Boeing's early 787 Dreamliners were so messed up during assembly that they were unsuitable for sale to an airline and sat in storage for years with no takers. A few were eventually sold off to be expensively re-worked as private VIP jets. Adding a sad coda to that woeful history, last Thursday in Moses Lake, one of those VIP airplanes fell on its face. As the jet sat on the ramp at Grant County International Airport, where a custom interior was being installed, the nose landing gear collapsed. The carbon-fiber forward fuselage hit the ground, as did the engine pods. No one was hurt, but the plane sustained damage that according to one expert "looks like it could be quite expensive." The airplane, Dreamliner No. 11, was bought by Korean Air for use as a Korean government VIP transport jet. Greenpoint Technologies of Kirkland, which designs and builds custom luxury aircraft interiors "for private clients and Heads-of-State," won the contract to complete the aircraft conversion. Boeing first assembled the plane in 2009 but, because of repeated re-work, it didn't roll out until six years later. In 2015, Boeing finally delivered the jet to Korean Air. The jet flew to Moses Lake where Greenpoint was to do the interior modifications, which are typically very expensive and take years to complete. Now, in addition to that ongoing work, the damage sustained with the face plant will have to be repaired. Greenpoint marketing director Christine Hadley refused to answer questions about what happened or about the likely repair. "A private VIP 787 at Greenpoint Technologies experienced an incident which is under investigation," she said in a curt emailed statement. Boeing spokesman Paul Bergman said "we are aware of the incident and have been in contact with Greenpoint," but declined to say more. When reached by phone on Tuesday, the photographer, who works at the airport, consulted his employer and then declined to comment on the accident. After examining the photos, Hans Weber - a veteran aerospace technology consultant who has advised the FAA and NASA and whose expertise includes aircraft repair technology for carbon fiber composite materials - said that the type of repair needed for the damaged carbon fiber area depends on "the force with which the plane hit the ground and the extent to which the strut and wheel assembly did damage." He said it's possible the damaged forward fuselage, which is manufactured in a single piece by Boeing's 787 partner Spirit AeroSystems in Wichita, Kan., can be patched over. However, if the damage is more severe, he said, it may be necessary to cut out and replace the damaged section, one of the standard repair procedures for the 787. Weber said the front wheel strut will need to be replaced, and probably the area where it attaches to the structure needs to be repaired, including any damage to the wheel well. He added that at least the front section of each engine pod, or nacelle, would have to be replaced. "A question here is if there is structural damage to the pylon or even engine," Weber said. "If so, that needs to replaced/repaired." https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/boeing-787-being-converted-to-vip-jet-has- unusual-accident-at-moses-lake-airfield/ Back to Top Passenger seriously hurt after falling down aircraft steps A PENSIONER sustained serious head injuries at Jersey Airport in December after falling while leaving an aircraft, a report has revealed. According to the Air Accidents Investigation Branch, the 74-year-old had just arrived in the Island on an easyJet flight from Liverpool when she tripped on stairs placed at the rear of the aircraft and fell head first from around seven steps from the ground. The woman was initially tended to by a nurse who had been travelling on the same flight before paramedics were called and she was taken to hospital. The remaining 137 passengers disembarked from the forward exit. The accident took place on 1 December at 3 pm in daylight and conditions on the day were described as dry with light winds. However, according to a document outlining the AAIB's investigation, the woman's shoe broke while she was making her way down the steps and this may have caused her to fall. It said: 'The subsequent investigation by the ground handling agent found the steps were fully serviceable, correctly positioned and free from any contamination. 'The accident probably occurred because the passenger's shoe broke while she was descending the steps. Carrying a suitcase may have impaired her ability to hold the handrail.' It added: 'The operator already makes a PA [public address] before passengers disembark reminding them to take care on the steps and to hold the handrail.' The investigation was launched after the 42-year-old captain of the easyJet Airbus A319 submitted a report to the AAIB. A spokeswoman for Swissport, easyJet's ground handling agent, said that they had flown the injured woman's family to Jersey following the incident, before she was transferred back to the UK. She said: 'On 1 December 2017 a female passenger fell while descending an aircraft. She was assisted by Swissport staff on the scene and in her transfer to hospital and her family were assisted on arrival in Jersey. 'We continue to be in touch with the passenger and her family and wish her well in her recovery. The steps used by the passenger are global industry standard and on inspection following the incident, were found to be fully serviceable.' The company also said that it had notified the Civil Aviation Authority and the Health and Safety Inspectorate about the accident. https://jerseyeveningpost.com/news/2018/03/14/passenger-seriously-hurt-after-falling-down-aircraft- steps/ Back to Top United Airlines mistakenly flies Kansas-bound German shepherd to Japan KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- United Airlines says it's investigating after mistakenly flying a Kansas family's dog to Japan. CBS affiliate KCTV reports that Kara Swindle and her two children flew from Oregon to Kansas City, Missouri, Tuesday on a United flight. The family is in the process of moving from Oregon to Wichita, Kansas. According to CBS affiliate, KCTV, Kara Swindle was flying into Kansas City Tuesday night, accompanied by her two children and Irgo, the family's German shepherd. Or so they thought. Upon landing in Kansas City, the family went to a cargo facility to pick up 10-year-old Irgo, a German shepherd, but were instead given a Great Dane. Swindle, of Wichita, Kansas, learned Irgo had been put on a flight to Japan, where the Great Dane was supposed to go. The airline said the kennels were similar. "I just want to know where my dog is," Swindle told KCTV. "The fact that we don't have any idea is the most frustrating part. He could be in Kansas City and we have no idea because the paperwork is all messed up. They have our paperwork here saying that this is the correct dog, but we know it's not. It's just horrible." According to KCTV, Irgo will see a veterinarian before being put back on a flight to Kansas City. There is a chance that Irgo may need to be quarantined for up to two weeks in Japan due to traveling on an international flight. It remains unclear as to when the dog will arrive in Kansas City. Irgo will see a veterinarian before being put back on a flight to Kansas City. KARA SWINDLE VIA KCTV "At this point, all I can do is be hopeful that my dog is going to be OK and return safely," Swindle told KCTV. "I don't know what else to do at this point. I can't cry anymore. I've cried too much." A spokesperson for United issued this statement to KCTV: "An error occurred during connections in Denver for two pets sent to the wrong destinations. We have notified our customers that their pets have arrived safely and will arrange to return the pets to them as soon as possible. We apologize for this mistake and are following up with the vendor kennel where they were kept overnight to understand what happened."The news of Irgo's unplanned odyssey comes as United admits a dog died after a flight attendant forced it to travel in an overhead bin on a Houston-to- New York flight. The airline recently changed its pet policy, limiting what animals are allowed in the aircraft cabin. Small dogs inside a carrier that fit underneath the seat are typically allowed. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/united-airlines-dog-bound-for-kansas-mistakenly-sent-on-flight-to- japan/ Back to Top Bangladesh civil aviation authorities ordered to give highest priority to flight safety after crash BANGLADESH (THE DAILY STAR/ASIA NEWS NETWORK) - Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on Wednesday (March 14) instructed the civil aviation authorities to give highest priority to flight safety and maintenance of planes of carriers. Speaking at a meeting at the Prime Minister's Office (PMO), she said the reasons behind the US-Bangla plane crash in Kathmandu were yet to be known and asked all concerned to stay cautious, according to the PMO. Madam Hasina had cut short her Singapore trip and returned on Tuesday afternoon in the wake of the BS211 disaster. Immediately after the meeting, the civil aviation and tourism ministry asked all carriers to follow the prime minister's directives, the standards set by the International Civil Aviation Organisation (Icao) regarding flight safety and maintenance, a top official of the ministry present at the meeting told The Daily Star. The official said air-worthy certificates of aircraft would not be renewed if an airlines failed to comply with the directives. A US-Bangla Airlines Bombardier Dash 8 Q-400 with 71 people onboard slammed on an empty field and burst into flames at the Tribhuvan International Airport on Monday. At least 51 people, including 28 Bangladeshis, died. Bangladesh declared national mourning on Thursday. The flag will be at half-mast at government offices, educational institutions, and diplomatic missions across the world. Special prayers will be offered at religious institutions and places of worships across the country on Friday. Following the prime minister's directive, a seven-member medical team, comprising burn and orthopaedic doctors and anaesthesiologists, have also been formed and it would leave for Kathmandu on Thursday to help Nepalese doctors treat the survivors. The team, led by Lutfar Kader Lenin of DMCH burn unit, has a forensic specialist to collect DNA samples of the deceased, Director General Abul Kalam Azad of Directorate General of Health Services told The Daily Star. However, the team is being sent at a time when the Nepalese authorities are about to send some of the seriously injured to Singapore for better treatment. Mr Samanta Lal Sen, founder of the burn and plastic surgery unit of DMCH, said Nepal did not have a large burn unit like the DMCH has but they had treatment facilities for burn injuries. Asked if it was rather late for sending a medical team, he said: "No, it is not late. We have to know the ground realities (in Nepal) before we move. Also, we need permission of the country." Bangladesh government sent ministers, and high officials while US-Bangla took relatives of the victims to Kathmandu a day after the crash but no doctor was sent, which many believe was required. Of the eight Bangladeshi survivors being treated at two hospitals in Kathmandu, the conditions of five are critical and one or two of them could be sent to Singapore, US-Bangla chief executive Imran Asif told The Daily Star on Wednesday. He also said conditions of two Bangladeshis were better and they could be sent home on Thursday on receipt of no-objection certificates. A team of civil aviation officials of Nepal and Bangladesh are investigating the crash. Team leader Yagya Prasad Gautam, former director general of the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal, said the team collected evidence from the scene and also talked to survivors. "I also sought some technical documents from Bangladesh authorities for the investigation," he told The Daily Star. Identification of all the bodies could not be completed. The Nepalese authorities said it would take several more days before those could be sent back to Bangladesh. Meanwhile, US-Bangla Airlines has closed its flight operations between Dhaka and Kathmandu for indefinite period. "Our flight operations between Dhaka and Kathmandu have been shut...due to shortage of aircraft," Mr Kamrul Islam, general manager (public relations) of the US-Bangla Airlines, told The Daily Star. http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/south-asia/bangladesh-civil-aviation-authorities-ordered-to-give- highest-priority-to-flight Back to Top United pilots union opposes more large jets at regional partners Pilots at United Airlines are striking back at the carrier's push to add more large regional jets at its partners, arguing that growth targets can be met within existing limits. "[United] doesn't need scope relief and has the ability to accomplish our growth strategy today," said Todd Insler, chairman of the Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA) United master executive council, in a letter to pilots on 13 March. United can add more large regional jets to its fleet if they are flown by mainline pilots, or if it adds a new small mainline aircraft, he says. The comments come as executives at Chicago-based United continue to push for the ability to add more 76-seat aircraft, like the Embraer 175, at regional partners. The two-class aircraft are needed for the airline to be competitive in smaller markets against the likes of American Airlines and Delta Air Lines, executives say. "We, today, do have a disadvantage," said Scott Kirby, president of United, at a JP Morgan conference on 13 March. "We have less scope ability, less 76-seat aircraft than either Delta or American." The carrier's contract with pilots limits it to 255 large regional jets, or those with 70 to 76 seats. American's large regional jet fleet, or aircraft with 66- to 76-seats, is capped at 40% of its mainline narrowbody fleet - or about 320 large regional aircraft at the end of 2017 - and Delta's up to 325 aircraft split between 102 with 51- to 70-seats and 223 with 71- to 76-seats. However, United does have the option to add up 65 more 76-seat jets to its feeder fleet in exchange for the addition of a new small mainline narrowbody, like the Bombardier CSeries or Embraer E-Jet-E2, under its existing pilots contract as Insler says. The airline has not taken advantage of this clause in the contract. United plans to grow capacity by 4-6% annually through 2020, a level it plans to achieve through increased mainline aircraft utilisation and a temporary bump in 50-seat regional jet flying this year. The additional 76-seat jets would allow it to remove some smaller siblings in coming years, as well as fuel the planned growth, executives say. The airline is evaluating the small mainline narrowbody aircraft options ahead of the next round of contract negotiations with ALPA, which could begin as early as May. This includes the Airbus A319neo, Boeing 737 Max 7, CSeries and E2 family. Andrew Levy, chief financial officer of United, told FlightGlobal earlier in March that the carrier was "very interested" in a small mainline narrowbody. Any decision on the such aircraft, however, would be conditioned on how much pilot pay rates rise in the next contract and the cost of the additional complexity a new type would add to United's mainline fleet, he said. https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/united-pilots-union-opposes-more-large-jets-at-regio- 446780/ Back to Top Surge in airline hiring boosts interest in aspiring pilots DALLAS - Major U.S. airlines are hiring pilots at a rate not seen since before 9/11, and that is encouraging more young people to consider a career in the cockpit. Hiring is likely to remain brisk for years. Smaller airlines in the U.S. are struggling with a shortage that will continue as they lose pilots to the bigger carriers, which in turn will need to replace thousands of retiring pilots over the next few years. Aircraft maker Boeing predicts that the U.S. will need 117,000 new pilots by 2036. Just a decade ago thousands of pilots were furloughed and some abandoned the profession. The shortage has been felt most keenly at regional carriers where many pilots start their airline careers. Last summer, Alaska Airlines subsidiary Horizon Air canceled more than 300 flights over two months for lack of pilots. Republic Airways filed for bankruptcy protection in 2016, citing a pilot shortage that forced it to ground flights. Many regional carriers fly smaller planes for American Eagle, Delta Connection and United Express. Signing bonuses and higher pay have helped them hire more than 17,000 pilots in the past four years, but that only replaced those who moved up to the major carriers, according to the Regional Airline Association. Demand at the major airlines is expected to grow as thousands of pilots at American, Delta, United and Southwest hit the U.S. mandatory pilot-retirement age of 65 in the next several years. American Airlines CEO Doug Parker believes the industry will cope. "Economics is going to take care of this, and I think that's what is happening now," Parker says. "The (flight) schools are starting to fill up with people who realize, 'If I can get myself to 1,500 hours (the minimum flight hours needed to get an airline-pilot license), I can be assured of a career as a pilot.' That's not something people could convince themselves of from 9/11 on until now." Pilot hiring nosedived after the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks that led to a decline in travel, and again during the global financial crisis in 2008-2009. Major U.S. airlines hired only 30 pilots in 2009, according to Future & Active Pilot Advisors, a career-counseling business for pilots. The job market didn't pick up significantly until around 2014. Last year 10 of the largest U.S. passenger and cargo airlines hired 4,988 pilots, the most since 2000 when they hired 5,105. "It's the best sellers' market I have seen in the last 45 years of monitoring airline pilot hiring," says Louis Smith, a retired airline pilot who runs the pilot-counseling outfit. Smith says forums for aspiring pilots that once drew a couple dozen people now sometimes attract more than 150. Some hope to make a mid-career change, which was rare just a few years ago. Aaron Ludomirski is one of those career-changers. The 31-year-old from Asbury Park, New Jersey, says he always wanted to be a pilot but studied business instead because the bleak job opportunities for pilots in the years after 9/11 didn't justify the cost of school and flight training. After college he started an online marketing business. "Year after year I found myself less and less satisfied with my work," he says. "I started thinking about what kind of career would really lead me to feeling fulfilled and accomplished, and I kept coming back to aviation." Ludomirski did some fresh research and learned that pilots were back in demand - and more would be retiring in the next few years. He quit his job and went to flight school. Now he is working as a flight instructor to gain the required flying time for an airline pilot. "I can interview for and even accept a conditional letter of employment and know I have my dream job lined up for me when I'm ready," he says. Applications for commercial aviation majors at the University of North Dakota, a big aeronautical school, have more than doubled in the last three years, says Elizabeth Bjerke, an aviation professor and one of the authors of the university's widely watched forecast on pilot supply. Some students graduate early to take advantage of the job market and the chance to move up the seniority list quickly because so many older pilots are retiring. "Our graduates will fly at the regionals for a very short period," Bjerke said. "They are getting picked up by the major carriers in their mid-20s, which would have been just crazy to think of 15 or 20 years ago." Michael Wiggins, chairman of the aeronautical science department at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, says his school's graduates are getting multiple job offers from regional airlines. Pilots who become captains on jumbo jets that fly international routes can earn more than $300,000 a year. But for anyone starting out in the profession, the training is expensive - upward of $100,000. A few years ago, those who made it faced starting pay for first officers or co-pilots at regional airlines in the low-$20,000s. With bonuses and higher hourly rates, some regionals now claim to offer starting pay of $80,000 or more, but even that might not be enough to meet future demand. The Regional Airline Association is pushing to change a 2013 federal rule that requires 1,500 hours of flying time - usually in small, single-engine planes - by replacing some of it with supervised classroom instruction. The group's president, Faye Malarkey Black, says supervised training would produce aviators with skills more relevant to piloting an airliner. But a similar proposal appears stalled in Congress, partly due to opposition from families of the 50 people who died in the last deadly crash of a U.S. airliner, a Colgan Air plane in 2009. Black believes the Trump administration has the authority to change the minimum flight hours without waiting for Congress to act, but she admits that will be difficult "as long as those changes are successfully cast as rolling back safety." JetBlue Airways is beginning a small-scale program of training people with no flying experience - an approach used by Lufthansa and other international airlines. The JetBlue program costs about $125,000, however, the airline says it is looking into providing financial assistance. Even with assistance, however, life for newcomers can be taxing. In addition to flying smaller planes for lower wages, they work on holidays and spend lots of time away from home. Starting pilots need "a passion for flying that drives the thrill of going to work," says Smith, the career adviser. "It's certainly not for everyone." http://m.startribune.com/surge-in-airline-hiring-boosts-interest-in-aspiring- pilots/476920743/?section=nation Back to Top How Airbus And Boeing's Single-Aisle Jet Party Could End Employees pose for a selfie after the first Boeing 737 MAX 7 aircraft was unveiled on the tarmac outside of the Boeing factory on February 5 in Renton, Wash. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images) Will Airbus and Boeing raise their single-aisle jetliner production rates to 70 per month? The industry has heard growing talk of these increases, which could come just a few years after the end of the decade. The current state of demand justifies these rates. But the current state of demand is based on an almost perfect confluence of market conditions. Here's why that might not last. Right now, the industry is still focused on getting to its current production objectives. This has proven difficult, with numerous stumbles related to the new generation engines powering the latest models. Airbus plans to get to 60 A320neo series jets per month in mid 2019, while Boeing is aiming for 57 737MAXs per month around the same time. The scramble to build planes is based on unprecedented demand. Boeing currently has 4,615 outstanding orders for its 737 family, while Airbus holds a 6,126 jet backlog for its A320 series. Still, suppliers have reservations about the sustainability of the new rumored production rates, which is understandable given the heavy investments the industry would need to get there. This is particularly true for the engine primes, CFM International (General Electric/Safran) and United Technologies' Pratt & Whitney. Historically, the jetliner market has seen a depressing pattern of cyclicality: about seven good years are routinely followed by about three bad years. Something has changed, and the industry hasn't seen a downturn since 2003. But suppliers are still understandably wary about a possible return of an historical pattern that lasted for half a century. If executed, the rumored rate rises would produce remarkable numbers. Total annual output of 1,680 narrowbodies per year would be about four times 2004's 425 A320/737 deliveries, the low point of the last jetliner market bust. Teal Group Single Aisle Jetliner Deliveries Assuming 70 Per Month By 2023 Assuming the new rates were achieved in 2023, the single aisle segment would have seen 450% growth (by value of deliveries) over 19 years, in constant year dollars. More single-aisle jets will have been delivered between 2010 and 2024 than were delivered in the first 51 years of the jet age, 1958-2009. The impact of the new rates is seen in our chart, based on current manufacturer guidance through 2019 and assuming a gradual rise to 70 per month for both families. But looking at history, it becomes clear that we're living in an unusual moment. Things are almost impossibly perfect right now, both in aviation and the broader macroeconomic environment. The aviation industry is starting to plan for a five year (or longer) future based on some remarkably happy times, which may continue. Or not. First, there's the outside world. The U.S. economy has now been expanding for nine straight years, with no signs of a slowdown. The IMF and OECD are both forecasting global growth of 3.9% this year, up from 3.7% in 2017. All the major regions of the world are enjoying this growth, and China, the biggest single market for jetliners, is still growing at around 6.5%. Two other key exogenous factors impacting jet demand are the price of fuel and the cost of capital. Fuel is in the Goldilocks zone, $62/bbl for West Texas Intermediate. If fuel goes down, to $40 or below, airlines will be far less likely to re-equip with new, more efficient jets, and more likely to keep older equipment longer. If fuel goes up, to $75 or above, they'll have a harder time making money, and as they raise fares to compensate travel demand will likely fall. But $62 really is the sweet spot. Meanwhile, cash is still very cheap. The Federal Funds Effective Rate just is 1.5%, up from an extended period of around 0%. This is forecasted to get to 2.1% this year, but considering that as recently as 2007 it was 5%, interest rates are still reasonably low. The ratio between the cost of money and the cost of fuel plays a big role in airline thinking. A combination of 0% interest and $100 fuel effectively means that an airline should absolutely finance new jet purchases to replace older, less efficient jets. Today's ratio is still pretty good. But 5% interest rates and $40 fuel would mean a lot of airlines simply hang on to older equipment. Then, there's the aviation business itself, which is in remarkable shape. Airline travel demand, as measured in revenue passenger kilometers, grew at a very strong 7.6% pace last year, well above the 5.5% average rate of the last ten years. Best of all, in key growth markets like China, travel demand is staying high even as GDP growth rates decline. Also, airline profits have stayed remarkably strong over the past three years, a sharp contrast to the many years of thin profits, or horrible losses, of previous decades. Finally, despite a global wave of populism and a move towards tariffs and against free trade, there are still no obstacles to the global sale of new and used jets. The threat of trade wars would make jets the easiest target. For example, if China decided to favor orders from either supplier, as a form of retaliation against the U.S. or Europe, that would remove around 25% of single aisle demand from the other manufacturer. The key takeaway is clear. Airbus and Boeing might be able to get to 70 per month narrowbody rates in the next decade. If, that is, history comes to a halt, and economic and aviation market conditions for the next five years stay just as great as they are today. https://www.forbes.com/sites/richardaboulafia/2018/03/14/how-the-airbus-boeing-single-aisle-jet- party-could-end/#58f6bac15a53 Back to Top Kitty Hawk begins certifying its self-flying taxis for service in New Zealand The flying car company led by Udacity CEO Sebastian Thrun and backed by Google co-founder Larry Page is breaking cover with a new deal that will see it test its autonomous electric air taxis with the New Zealand government, with the aim of having a commercial network ready to carry passengers within as little as three years, the New York Times reports. Kitty Hawk, which has so far only demonstrated its piloted recreational hovercraft (a luxury item designed to help it spur development of its autonomous air taxis) has been testing its autonomous electric passenger aircraft, which resembles a small plane with variable rotors that can go from a vertical alignment for take-off and landing, to a horizontal one for flying like an ordinary plane through the skies. I've spoken to Thrun about the potential of flying 'cars' in the past, and the former Google self-driving car project pioneer is extremely bullish on the idea. In fact, he told me he believes that it will leapfrog autonomous cars sometime in the next few years, mostly because when you take to the skies, there are actually fewer problems to solve in terms of building a self-piloting system than when you're locked to the ground, which naturally means you're having to deal with pedestrians, other cars and more, with one less dimension to navigate. Kitty Hawk has been keeping its efforts in New Zealand under wraps by operating its autonomous planes in testing there under the name 'Zephyr Airworks,' and by doing the work on this passenger plane under the code name "Zee Aero," which is the name of what some had suspected was a separate company backed by Page and led by former airline executive Fred Reid. This aircraft is called "Cora" by Kitty Hawk, and has a 36-foot wingspan and 12 rotors, powered entirely by battery. It has a 62-mile range and room on board for two passengers. Kitty Hawk intends to own and operate the vehicles itself, per the report, kind of like what Ford intends to do with its first fleet of autonomous cars to enter commercial service. Autonomous flight, and short-hop on-demand aerial transportation, are both big areas of focus for some other high-profile companies, including Uber, which is hosting its second annual conference dedicated to the idea in May, and Airbus, which has been investing in small, electric, autonomous aircraft via its own Vahanna project and through partnerships, including with automaker Audi. Thrun seemed incredibly confident in the ability of autonomous air transport to make a significant impact sooner than most people think when I spoke to him about Udacity's flying car nanondegree program, and now it's obvious why: His own company is making great strides towards fielding an actual commercial service. https://www.yahoo.com/tech/kitty-hawk-begins-certifying-self-114115137.html Back to Top GE starts flight trials for world's largest jet engine FILE PHOTO: The logo of General Electric Co. is pictured at the Global Operations Center in San Pedro Garza Garcia, neighbouring Monterrey, Mexico, on May 12, 2017. REUTERS/Daniel Becerril SEATTLE (Reuters) - General Electric (GE.N) has begun flight trials of the world's largest jet engine after delays caused by technical problems, the U.S. conglomerate said on Wednesday. A special Boeing 747 test aircraft flew on Tuesday from Victorville, California, with the new E9X engine mounted under its left wing, dwarfing the plane's three other engines. The huge powerplant - as wide and tall as the fuselage of a Boeing 737 - is being built for the latest version of Boeing Co's (BA.N) long-haul 777, the 777X, which is due to enter service in 2020. During Tuesday's flight, engineers completed their test list and ensured key characteristics were working properly, GE said in a statement confirming the flight, reported earlier by Reuters. The flight marks the beginning of a flight-test campaign scheduled to last several months, before the aircraft itself takes to the skies in the first quarter of next year. GE had been expected to start flight trials in December, but announced in February it had found technical problems with both the engine and the test plane during preparatory work. The engine glitch will require the redesign of a part in the compressor, which is near the front of the engine and does not handle the hottest air flows. Despite the delay, GE feels "very confident" it will meet a 2019 target date for safety certification, a spokeswoman said. GE's partners on the engine include France's Safran (SAF.PA), Japan's IHI Corp <7013.T> and Germany's MTU Aero Engines (MTXGn.DE). https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/ge-begins-flight-trials-ge9x-225732805.html Back to Top Live High Definition Video From Mars? NASA Is Getting Ready This artist's-concept illustration depicts NASA's Psyche spacecraft which will carry a deep-space laser communications system. JPL-Caltech/Arizona State Univ./Space Systems Loral/Peter Rubin/NASA Nothing conveys the excitement of space exploration like pictures from another planet. Now NASA is planning to go one better than pictures. The space agency is aiming to launch a probe carrying a communication system that will let future missions to Mars transmit live, high definition video to Earth. So when the first person walks on Mars, the live video should be far better than what the world saw when Neil Armstrong stepped onto the moon. YouTube NASA has already demonstrated it can now send high definition video from the moon. In 2013, NPR reported on the Lunar Laser Communication Demonstration project. As the name suggests, the system used laser light to transmit a video from the moon to Earth in real time. Using light to transmit information at high speeds is nothing new. You might have fiber optic cables carrying the Internet to your house. But in space, light doesn't travel by cable. A laser is used to send the light signals. Sending a signal from the moon is one thing. Sending one from Mars is much harder. "The biggest challenges, by far, have to do with distance," says Kevin Kelly, CEO of LGS Innovations in Herndon, Va., just outside Washington, D.C. The moon is only about 240,000 miles from Earth. Mars is on average 140 million miles away. Kelly's company is building a part of the Deep Space Optical Communications package NASA is planning to put on the Psyche mission that will travel out past Mars. Sending Data From Mars To Earth This theoretical animation depicts a satellite using lasers to relay data from Mars to Earth. Psyche gif Source: NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center From Mars, Earth appears as a small dot. "Keeping [a laser] pointed in the right direction and receiving a strong signal is going to be a physics challenge for sure," Kelly says. There's one curious problem when pointing a laser from such a great distance. Even travelling at the speed of light, a laser beam can take as long as 20 minutes to go from the Earth to Mars. "You may receive the signal from the Earth, but you can just point back in the direction that you got the signal from," says David Israel, principal investigator on NASA's Laser Communications Relay Demonstration mission. Because by the time your transmission gets to where the Earth is, the Earth has moved out of the beam. You have to point it to where the Earth is going to be when the light signal arrives. This "point ahead" system is like throwing a pass to a receiver in football. If the receiver is running down the field, the quarterback has to throw it to where the receiver is going to be when the ball gets there. One of the challenges of deep space laser communications is capturing all the light that's sent. To do that, NASA will be using the historic 200-inch Hale telescope on Mt. Palomar in California. The captured light will go into a detector that's being built at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena. The detectors can measure a single photon of light. "With these detectors we can detect these very faint signals that are going to coming back from this laser transmitter," says JPL physicist Matt Shaw. NASA's not just interested in using laser communication from deep space. Laser systems can transmit much more data than a radio signal, so they could replace traditional radios on spacecraft. At MIT's Lincoln Laboratory, engineers are building a miniature system they're planning to send into low Earth orbit space next year. "The data rates that we're aiming for this demonstration are 200 gigabits per second, 200 billion bits per second," says Brian Robinson, associate group leader of the optical communications technology group at the lab. And with a laser in low Earth orbit, you don't need a big telescope to capture the photons. "Between 4 to 8 inches," he says, "maybe as large as a foot. In other words, about the size of a hobbyist's telescope." Using light to transmit data and video may be the future of space communications, but it's actually quite an old idea. Alexander Graham Bell, the inventor who brought us the telephone, built something called the photophone in the 1880s that transmitted sound using light from the sun. "Bell demonstrated it right here in Washington, D.C., between a laboratory that was on the roof of a school just near the White House over to his laboratory that was just a few blocks away," says LGS Innovations' Kelly. Talk about an inventor ahead of his time. NASA plans to launch its new deep space laser communication system in 2022. https://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2018/03/14/592910837/live-high-definition-video- from-mars-nasa-is-getting-ready Back to Top RESEARCH SURVEY Dear Participants, You are being asked to participate in a research study of your opinions of criminalization in aviation accidents. This study is expected to take approximately 10 minutes of your time. In order to participate, you must be at least 18 years old and a certified pilot. Participation in this study is voluntary, and you may choose to opt out of the study at any time. If you choose to opt out, your data will be immediately destroyed. We appreciate your consideration and time to complete our study. Please click on or copy and paste the URL below: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSdJKwrq6VG_2gRwoXEs7PLRIBBVQ48- d9k75CDD_Yyh6wlk0g/viewform?usp=sf_link For more information, please contact: Dr. Scott R. Winter winte25e@erau.edu We appreciate your interest and participation! Back to Top BOOKS: The Air Crash Files: Thermal Runaway and JET BLAST "Dan, you've raised the Bar on accident investigation." Daniel Tenace (pronounced ten-ah-ch?) is a seasoned major accident investigator for the NTSB. In 'The Air Crash Files' series, Tenace becomes involved in two different aviation tragedy investigations: Jet Blast, Tenace must discover the reason airliner engines reverse in flight without warning; Thermal Runaway, Tenace must analyze an airliner disaster in the Atlantic Ocean and uncover what caused an inflight fire that would not extinguish, hours from land. Armed only with experience, Tenace fights bureaucrats and manufacturers, each intent on derailing his efforts. Where the lives of many hang in the balance ... Nobody investigates it better than Tenace. ___________________________________________________________________________________ AVAILABLE FOR ORDER AT: https://www.amazon.com/Stephen-Carbone/e/B00SQ0YR78/ref=sr_tc_2_0?qid=152018 About the Author Stephen Carbone, a thirty-six-year veteran of the commercial aviation industry, is a certificated aircraft mechanic who worked both analog and digital airliners. Stephen spent years working the most sophisticated airliners flying; he inspected them, repaired them, and tested them. As an NTSB major accident investigator, Stephen applied his airliner technical experience to correctly investigate major aircraft accidents, both domestic and international. As an aviation inspector for the FAA's Flight Standards Division, Stephen kept a qualified eye on the aviation industry; he inspected them and investigated them ... and he knew where to look. He's instructed hundreds of U.S. and International professionals in aviation safety and has been writing articles for aviation trade magazines since 2005. Since 2014, he has written weekly safety articles to his website, including 'Lessons Unlearned', where he analyzes past accidents to show how important lessons in safety were missed. Stephen Carbone has lived what he writes about. He can be followed on Twitter: @stephenmcarbone Website: https://danieltenace.com/ Back to Top Position Reporting to the Executive Director, this individual works with air carriers to guide them through designing and implementing aviation safety management programs in accordance with Medallion standards under the Shield Program®. This specialist should have a broad working knowledge of part 121 and part 135 aviation practices and the general principles of aviation safety management system, a working knowledge of the FARs and good customer relation skills. The position is based in Alaska and requires some travel. The ideal candidate will also serve as the ASAP Facilitator. We manage all of the administrative aspects of the ASAP MOU with over 15 carriers. Applicants with previous part 119 credentials or recent FAA ASI background are strongly encouraged to apply Duties Guide development of documentation to support Medallion Shield programs Perform on-site visits to ensure basic compliance with an aviation operator's Medallion safety programs Interface with Medallion staff and Auditors on progress of programs and deficiencies Work with Medallion Auditors and operators to develop corrective action plans Develop and conduct classroom training in support of the Shield program Keep Medallion database up to date with customer information Other duties as assigned to support other Medallion programs and initiatives Job can be tailored to Part-time or Full-time Qualifications 10 Year Aviation preferred 5 years' experience in aviation safety Understand and apply general principles of aviation safety management systems Must have excellent communication skills and be able to interact with a wide variety of people Have basic computer skills Must have no travel restrictions Able to work with minimal supervision Must be able to lead people and accept responsibility Knowledge and understanding of the Federal Aviation Regulations Experience working with certificated aviation businesses Familiarity with Medallion Shield Program a plus Working knowledge of Safety Management System concepts Class Room Training as an Instructor Medallion is proud to be an Equal Opportunity Employer. Contact - info@medallionfoundation.org Curt Lewis