Flight Safety Information March 22, 2019 - No. 061 In This Issue FBI Investigating 737 MAX Certification Process Boeing to mandate safety alert in 737 MAX software upgrade: sources Boeing to offer safety feature as standard in 737 MAX software upgrade: sources Pilots transitioned to 737 Max 8 with self-administered online course Boeing to make safety feature standard on troubled Max jets Eurocopter AS 350B3 Ecureuil - Fatal Accident (Australia) MD-11F Ground Collision (Japan) Boeing 767 - Ground Collision (Japan) Incident: Westjet B737 enroute on Mar 16th 2019, pilot incapacited Flynas passes IATA safety audit FAA extends flight prohibition for Libyan airspace, now allows overflight at FL300 and above Research: Why Struggling Airlines Spend More on Safety FAA Tells Cirrus Pilots to Pay Special Attention to Ailerons During Preflight NTSB: United Express regional jet missed runway in Maine Etihad is still bleeding money. Is it time to merge with Emirates? Indonesian airline Garuda is canceling its $6 billion order for 49 Boeing 737 Max jets Business Aviation Safety Consortium (BASC) Membership Now Accepted as a Safety Management Best-practice Along With IS-BAO Registry in USAIG Performance Vector PLUS Program Two space station astronauts to tackle challenging spacewalk GRADUATE RESEARCH SURVEY 2019 - RTCA Global Aviation Symposium Workshops Across Canada! There's Still Room! Aircraft Cabin Air Conference ISASI-Mid-Atlantic Regional Chapter (MARC) Dinner/Meeting--2 May 2019 FBI Investigating 737 MAX Certification Process The FBI has reportedly joined a criminal investigation into the certification of the Boeing 737 MAX in the wake of the crashes of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 and Lion Air Flight 610, according to The Seattle Times. The report comes after Department of Transportation (DOT) Secretary Elaine Chao issued a memo (PDF) on Tuesday confirming a previous request for the DOT's Inspector General to conduct an audit "to compile an objective and detailed factual history of the activities that resulted in the certification of the Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft." 346 people were killed in the two MAX crashes, which happened within five months of each other. The investigation is being conducted by the DOT Inspector General and overseen by the criminal division of the U.S. Justice Department. It has also been reported that, based on information from the Lion Air crash, the MAX certification investigation may have begun prior to the Ethiopian Airlines accident. It is expected that investigators will be looking closely at how the FAA has regulated Boeing and safety certification work performed by company employees for the FAA. Boeing has previously stated that it will cooperate fully with the FAA, DOT and NTSB "on all issues relating to both the Lion Air and the Ethiopian Airlines accidents." As previously reported by AVweb, Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg said on Monday that a software update and new pilot training procedures to address "concerns discovered in the aftermath of the Lion Air Flight 610 accident" will be coming soon. Those updates will need to be approved by the FAA before the MAX stands any chance of being allowed off the ground. Regulators in Europe and Canada have said that they will conduct their own reviews of any fixes Boeing provides. http://flash.avweb.com/eletter/4293- full.html?ET=avweb:e4293:272360a:&st=email#232449 Back to Top Boeing to mandate safety alert in 737 MAX software upgrade: sources WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Boeing Co will mandate a previously optional cockpit warning light as part of a forthcoming software update to the 737 MAX fleet that was grounded in the wake of two fatal crashes, two officials briefed on the matter said Thursday. Boeing previously offered the AOA DISAGREE alert, which warns pilots when the "angle of attack" (AOA) readings do not match, but it was not required by regulators. Boeing will now retrofit older planes with the light that did not initially receive it, the officials said. Boeing did not immediately comment Thursday. There has been a long-running industry debate about how much information should be displayed in the cockpit, notably about the angle at which the wing is slicing through the air. Federal prosecutors, the Transportation Department's inspector general and U.S. lawmakers are investigating the Federal Aviation Administration's certification of the 737 MAX. The FAA declined to comment on the software upgrade Thursday but said last week it planned to mandate "design changes" coming from Boeing in its software upgrade by April for the 737 MAX. Indonesia's Lion Air did not install the warning light. Lion Air Fight 610 crashed in October minutes after takeoff, killing all 189 onboard. The company told Reuters in November it did not install it because it was not required. The angle is a key flight parameter that must remain narrow enough to preserve lift and avoid an aerodynamic stall. A faulty AOA reading led the doomed Lion Air jet's computer to believe it was stalled, prompting the plane's anti-stall system, called the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS), to repeatedly push down the plane's nose. The planemaker has come under fire in the wake of the Lion Air crash for not outlining the automated system, MCAS, in the flight manual for the 737 MAX. https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/boeing-mandate-safety-alert-737-max-software- upgrade-160257238--finance.html Back to Top Boeing to offer safety feature as standard in 737 MAX software upgrade: sources WASHINGTON/JAKARTA (Reuters) - Boeing Co plans to offer as standard a safety feature that might have warned earlier of problems that possibly played a role in the crashes of Ethiopian and Indonesian planes that killed almost 350 people, two officials briefed on the matter said on Thursday. Boeing will mandate a previously optional cockpit warning light as part of a software update to the 737 MAX fleet that was grounded in the wake of the fatal crashes, said the officials, who asked not to be identified. The March 10 Ethiopian Airlines crash that killed all 157 on board has set off one of the widest inquiries in aviation history and cast a shadow over the Boeing MAX model intended to be a standard for decades. Initial investigations show similarities between the Ethiopian crash and the Indonesian accident in October that killed all 189 crew and passengers. A direct link between the crashes has not been proven, but attention has focused on an automated flight-control system, MCAS (Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System), that came into service two years ago with the MAX. Chicago-based Boeing, which the officials said also will retrofit older planes with the cockpit warning light, previously offered the alert, but it was not required by aviation regulators. It is unclear how long it will take Boeing to refit existing MAX planes with new software or hardware. Experts said it could take weeks or months to be done, and for regulators to review and approve the changes. Regulators in Europe and Canada have said they will conduct their own reviews of any new systems. The software is designed to prevent a loss of lift which can cause an aerodynamic stall, sending the plane downwards in an uncontrolled way. In the Lion Air crash, it may have been erroneously activated by a faulty sensor, investigators believe. The FAA has said installation of the new software and related training was a priority. STEPS TO IMPROVE SAFETY Boeing did not immediately comment on the plan to make the safety feature standard. However, in London Thursday, Randy Tinseth, Boeing's vice president of commercial marketing, said the manufacturer is moving quickly to make software changes and expects the upgrade will be approved by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in the coming weeks. "That includes changes in the control laws of the airplane, an update of the displays, the flight manual, as well as the training," he said at a conference, adding Boeing has tested the improvements in a simulator and in the air. The product and training updates were being made "to further improve the safety that ensures that this will not happen again," Tinseth said. He said it was too early to speculate on what the investigations will show, but defended Boeing's design and production processes. Boeing also said it would slow work at its 737 plant in Seattle next week to allow employees to catch up on work that was previously delayed, but said this was because of winter storms and supplier delays and not fallout from the crashes. Meanwhile, in Jakarta, Indonesian investigators described the panic of pilots grappling with airspeed and altitude problems in the last moments of the Lion Air flight. "It seemed the pilot felt he could no longer recover the flight. Then the panic emerged," Nurcahyo Utomo, an investigator at Indonesia's national transportation committee, said. Reuters reported Wednesday the Lion Air pilots scrambled through a handbook to understand why the jet was lurching downwards in the final minutes before it hit the water. A final report on the Lion Air crash is expected in August. Boeing has said there was a documented procedure to handle the automated system at the heart of the problem. In both flights, crews radioed about control problems shortly after take-off and sought to turn back. MULTIPLE INQUIRIES Investigations of Boeing's conduct are starting to pile up, with several lawsuits already filed on behalf of victims of the Lion Air crash referring to the Ethiopian accident. Boeing declined to comment on the lawsuits. Consumer advocate and former U.S. presidential candidate Ralph Nader lost a grand- niece in the Ethiopian crash and urged whistleblowers to help challenge the aviation industry and get to the bottom of what happened. "They lulled us into complacency," he said in an interview in Thursday's Wall Street Journal. SIMULATORS Simulators for the MAX are now being manufactured but they have yet to be delivered to most airlines that have ordered them. Ethiopian Airlines said on Thursday the simulators are not designed to replicate the MCAS problems. The airline is among the few that do have such a simulator but the captain of the doomed flight had no chance to practice on it before the fatal crash, a pilot colleague said. In Washington, Boeing faces a criminal investigation by the U.S. Justice Department and executives also will be summoned to a U.S. Senate panel hearing for questioning. https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/boeing-faa-face-more-pressure-u-lawmakers- over-061232505--finance.html Back to Top Pilots transitioned to 737 Max 8 with self-administered online course (CNN)Pilots transitioning to the Boeing 737 Max 8 aircraft from older 737 models were given a short, self-administered online course that made no mention of a new system now at the center of two crash investigations, pilots' unions spokesmen for two American carriers told CNN. Pilots of Southwest Airlines and American Airlines took courses -- lasting between 56 minutes and three hours -- that highlighted differences between the Max 8 and older 737s, but did not explain the new maneuvering characteristics augmentation system, know as MCAS, the spokesmen said. The system, designed to automatically command a plane to pitch down if it senses an imminent stall, has become the focus of October's Lion Air crash of a 737 Max 8, and experts say it could become a major factor in the Ethiopian Airlines crash that killed 157 people earlier this month. "The course was not instructor-led. It was self-administered," said Mike Trevino, a spokesman for the union that represents pilots of Southwest Airlines. The set course took pilots approximately three hours to complete, Trevino said. The 8,500 pilots of Southwest Airlines exclusively fly the 737, and it is the world's largest operator of the 737 Max 8, employing 34 of the aircraft. "MCAS was installed in the aircraft and Boeing didn't disclose that to the pilots," said Trevino, while adding that Southwest pilots are experienced with 737s. "It's not flying a whole new aircraft. It's still a 737." Boeing has not responded to multiple requests for comment. 737 Max 8 transition courses did not explain the new maneuvering characteristics augmentation sysmtem which is at the center of two crash investigations, according to pilots' unions. Hands-on experience needed In the wake of the fatal crashes, some pilots are demanding additional training on the 737 Max series aircraft, in the form of both ground school and flight simulator time. "This is ridiculous," said Captain Dennis Tajer, a representative of the Allied Pilots Association, which represents 15,000 American Airlines pilots. "If you're going to have equipment on the airplane that we didn't know about, and we're going to be responsible for battling it if it fails, then we need to have hands-on experience." The self-administered transition course for American Airlines pilots was a 56-minute online course, Tajer said, which he completed on his iPad. It was broken up into four broad sections, including a general description of changes to the aircraft, its engines, and its instrument panel. But an explanation or even an acknowledgement of the MCAS system was again missing, Tajer said. "(The transition course) usually works. It works for us. We have pilots who have a lot of experience. When I need to do a little more study, I know where to go. And if I was to go to that place, the MCAS wasn't even there." Boeing develops the courses with each individual airline, which is why Southwest's transition training course was longer than the course for American Airlines. But Trevino and Tajer say both failed to mention or explain the MCAS system. On November 27, one month after the Lion Air crash, the American Airlines pilots' union met with Boeing representatives in Texas to convey "serious concerns about the issues raised by the Lion Air 737 Max accident and ongoing investigation," according to a statement from the union. The MCAS system is less familiar to pilots and may have casued confusion in the event of emergency situations. Part of that discussion focused on the software that triggers the MCAS system, Tajer said. Because the FAA certified the 737 Max series to be flown without requiring simulator time, Tajer said it will be difficult to demand simulator experience before flying the aircraft. American Airlines is working to have 737 Max simulators in place by the end of the year, added Tajer. In the interim, he noted that American Airlines pilots have received intense ground school on the MCAS following the Lion Air crash. In response to October's Lion Air crash, Boeing has developed a software patch and a pilot training program to address the issues from the fatal flight, the Federal Aviation Administration said in an airworthiness directive Wednesday. "The FAA's ongoing review of this software installation and training is an agency priority, as will be the roll-out of any software, training, or other measures to operators of the 737 MAX," the directive said. Potential cause of confusion Neil Hansford, an Australian aviation safety consultant who runs Strategic Aviation Solutions, condemned Boeing and the FAA for allowing such simplified courses. Even with the similarities between the 737 Max 8 and previous models of the popular airline, Hansford says aviation regulators should require ground school, at least 20 hours in a simulator, and a series of check rides to establish proficiency in the new aircraft. Transition training through courses and bulletins has been permitted before, says John Cox, a veteran airline pilot and aviation safety expert who runs Safety Operating Systems. In cases where a pilot was moving between different models of the same or very similar aircraft, such courses could suffice without additional check rides, he said. For example, a pilot permitted to fly certain models of 757 is also qualified to fly certain models of the larger 767. But Cox says any new system should definitely be explained in transition courses. "In retrospect, knowing what we know now about the MCAS, I think that everybody or a significant number of people would have said additional training would have been a good idea," Cox said. Cox points to the similarities between two systems on board a 737 Max 8 series as a potential cause of confusion for pilots: The MCAS and runaway trim. Both can cause an airplane to nose down, but Cox says 737 pilots know how to deal with a runaway trim from years of experience. The MCAS -- new to the 737 Max series -- is a less familiar system to pilots. In an emergency situation, with multiple in-flight warnings, Cox says it could be difficult to correctly diagnose the MCAS as the problematic system. "I think everybody has been surprised at the possibilities of how MCAS could cause a problem," Cox said. "I don't think Boeing computed it that way. I don't think their analysis showed that this was likely, and I think they convinced themselves and the FAA that this was a minor change from a pilot's standpoint." The fallout from the two fatal crashes has shaken some pilots' trust in Boeing and the FAA. "If the FAA says it's safe, Boeing says it's safe, our airlines say it's safe, we are the ones who have to stand there with them and say we agree... or we don't agree," said Tajer. "We want to say yes, but we will not be forced to say yes. I'm on that airplane as the last line of defense for our passengers." https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/22/us/max-8-boeing-self-administered-courses-lion-air- ethiopian-airlines-intl/index.html Back to Top Boeing to make safety feature standard on troubled Max jets AOA Sensor Boeing will make standard on its troubled new airliner a safety feature that might have helped the crew of a jet that crashed shortly after takeoff last year in Indonesia, killing everyone on board. The equipment, which had been offered as an option, alerts pilots of faulty information from key sensors. It will now be included on every 737 Max as part of changes that Boeing is rushing to complete on the jets by early next week, according to two people familiar with the changes. The people spoke on condition of anonymity because Boeing and federal regulators are still discussing details of the upgrade to the Max fleet, which was grounded worldwide after a second deadly crash this month in Ethiopia. The cause of the accidents has not been determined, but investigators probing the crash of a Lion Air Max jet have focused on an automated system designed to use information from two sensors to help prevent a dangerous aerodynamic stall. The sensors measure whether the plane is pointed up, down or level in relation to the direction of onrushing air. Software on the Max can push the plane's nose down if data from one of the sensors indicates the plane is tilted up so sharply that it could stall and fall from the sky. In the Lion Air case, the sensors malfunctioned and gave wildly conflicting information, and the plane crashed minutes after takeoff. A preliminary report described a grim fight by the pilots to control the plane as it pitched downward more than two dozen times. It is not known whether the same flight-control system played a role in the March 10 crash of the Ethiopian Airlines jet shortly after takeoff from Addis Ababa, but regulators say both planes had similar erratic flight paths, an important part of their decision to ground the roughly 370 Max planes around the world. The Lion Air plane also lacked another optional feature: gauges or displays that would let pilots see at a glance the up-or-down direction of the plane's nose. It was unclear whether such "angle of attack" or AOA gauges will also become standard equipment on the Max. Boeing declined to say why the options were not standard equipment sooner. American Airlines has both options on its Boeing 737s. Dennis Tajer, a Boeing 737 captain for American and spokesman for its pilots' union, said he could not understand why Boeing would make the alert system standard but not do the same with the gauges. "Anyone who suggests that we should just have one of those two items - the alert and not the AOA gauges - is not embracing giving pilots all the information they should have," he said. Tajer said the plane can be flown safely without the gauges - most small planes don't have them - "but it's a broader margin of safety if you've got it." Pilots often rely on separate sensors measuring airspeed to determine if they are in danger of stalling. That is true of the earlier models of the Boeing 737. The Max is different because flight-control software called MCAS can pitch the nose down based on readings from a single AOA sensor. Max jets flown by Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines lacked both the sensor-disagreement warning and AOA gauges, according to the New York Times, which first reported Boeing's decision to make the warning standard. Boeing declined to comment on details of customer orders. The average list price for a 737 Max 8 is $121.6 million, according the company's website, although airlines routinely receive deep discounts. Boeing charges extra for additional features but won't discuss those numbers, calling it valuable proprietary information. Low-cost carriers such as Indonesia's Lion Air may be more likely than the larger airlines to turn down options to save money. Since both Max crashes involved foreign airlines, and U.S. and Canadian carriers have had little trouble, problems may have arisen with pilot training in developing countries, said John Goglia, a former member of the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board and an expert in aircraft maintenance. Many airlines, he said, buy training programs from third-party vendors and not from Boeing because Boeing's program costs more. Boeing's training also requires many hours of pilot work, which some airlines don't want. The CEO of Ethiopian Airlines said Thursday that the carrier's pilots went through all the extra training required by Boeing and the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration to fly the 737 Max 8 jet that crashed. The accident killed 157 people from 35 countries. Tewolde Gebremariam said the training was meant to help crews shift from an older model of the 737 to the Max 8, which entered airline service in 2017. In a statement, he said pilots were also made aware of an emergency directive issued by the FAA after the Lion Air crash, which killed 189 people. The New York Times reported that the pilots of the Ethiopian plane never trained in a simulator for the plane. Gebremariam said that the 737 Max simulator is not designed to imitate problems in the new jet's flight-control software. He declined to say whether the pilots had trained on the simulator. After the Lion Air accident, Boeing reminded pilots of the process for stopping the plane's automatic nose-down tilt, including flipping two cutoff switches near the pilot's knees. That procedure is unchanged from earlier 737s, and pilots are expected to know it. John Hansman, an aeronautics professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said the Ethiopian Airlines pilots clearly struggled to control the plane and might have been too preoccupied to realize whether the anti-stall system was malfunctioning. "All you know is the airplane is not flying correctly. You're trying to figure it out at the same time you're trying to fly an airplane, which is difficult," Hansman said. He believes the crashes show the need for more pilot training, whether it is done on a simulator, a computer or an iPad, which is becoming more common at airlines. William Waldock, a professor of safety science at Embry Riddle Aeronautical University, said it is essential that pilots get simulator training on handling a failure of the anti-stall system. "If they want to put the Max back into service, they have got to get that system so that whatever you are training is what you are going to experience in a real flight," he said. A spokesman for CAE, the world's leading maker of flight simulators, said the company has sold about 40 Max simulators. U.S. airlines expect to begin receiving them late this year. A spokesman for the FAA declined to say whether the agency would require new, additional training for pilots in Max simulators before it lets the planes resume flying. https://www.apnews.com/140576a8e9d4449eae646c8c479fdc3a Back to Top Eurocopter AS 350B3 Ecureuil - Fatal Accident (Australia) Date: 20-MAR-2019 Time: 10:48 Type: Eurocopter AS 350B3 Ecureuil Owner/operator: Aeropower Holdings Pty Ltd Registration: VH-SZS C/n / msn: 7421 Fatalities: Fatalities: 1 / Occupants: 1 Other fatalities: 0 Aircraft damage: Written off (damaged beyond repair) Location: Carrapateena Mine 66km east of Woomera, SA - Australia Phase: Manoeuvring (airshow, firefighting, ag.ops.) Nature: Calibration/Inspection Departure airport: Destination airport: Narrative: During string power line operations on contract for ElectraNet the helicopter hit a elelectricity pole and crashed. The pilot died in the crash. https://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/wiki.php?id=223229 Back to Top MD-11F Ground Collision (Japan) Date: 21-MAR-2019 Time: 20:25 LT Type: McDonnell Douglas MD-11F Owner/operator: FedEx Express Registration: N623FE C/n / msn: 48794/638 Fatalities: Fatalities: 0 / Occupants: 2 Other fatalities: 0 Aircraft damage: Substantial Location: Tokyo/Narita International Airport (NRT/RJAA) - Japan Phase: Standing Nature: Cargo Departure airport: Tokyo/Narita International Airport (NRT/RJAA), Japan Destination airport: Shanghai Pudong International Airport (PVG/ZSPD), China Narrative: Two cargo flights from Tokyo/Narita, Japan to Shanghai/Pudong, China were cancelled due two ground contact at a taxiway in Narita. ANA/NH8517, a Boeing 767-316F, was pushed back when its tail crashed into standing FedEx MD-11F on the taxiway W. ANA sustained substantial damage on the vertical stabilizer and the tail cone, while FedEx received damage on the No.2 engine. No personal injuries were reported. https://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/wiki.php?id=223279 Back to Top Boeing 767 - Ground Collision (Japan) Date: 21-MAR-2019 Time: 20:25 LT Type: Boeing 767-316F(WL) Owner/operator: All Nippon Airways - ANA Registration: JA605F C/n / msn: 30842/860 Fatalities: Fatalities: 0 / Occupants: 2 Other fatalities: 0 Aircraft damage: Substantial Location: Tokyo/Narita International Airport (NRT/RJAA) - Japan Phase: Pushback / towing Nature: Cargo Departure airport: Tokyo/Narita International Airport (NRT/RJAA), Japan Destination airport: Shanghai Pudong International Airport (PVG/ZSPD), China Narrative: Two cargo flights from Tokyo/Narita, Japan to Shanghai/Pudong, China were cancelled due two ground contact at a taxiway in Narita. ANA/NH8517, a Boeing 767-316F, was pushed back when its tail crashed into standing FedEx MD-11F on the taxiway W. ANA sustained substantial damage on the vertical stabilizer and the tail cone, while FedEx received damage on the No.2 engine. No personal injuries were reported. https://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/wiki.php?id=223278 Back to Top Incident: Westjet B737 enroute on Mar 16th 2019, pilot incapacited A Westjet Boeing 737-700, registration C-GQWJ performing flight WS-1152 from Toronto,ON (Canada) to San Juan (Puerto Rico) with 126 passengers and 5 crew, was enroute at FL370 about 470nm east of Wilmington,NC (USA) when a member of the flight crew became ill and was unable to continue duties. A medical professional travelling as passenger on board provided first aid to the pilot, while the other flight crew member returned the aircraft to Toronto. Medical services were called to meet the aircraft upon arrival. The Canadian TSB reported the ill pilot was assessed by medical services and released shortly after. https://flightaware.com/live/flight/WJA1152/history/20190316/1340Z/CYYZ/TJSJ http://avherald.com/h?article=4c5aa859&opt=0 Back to Top Flynas passes IATA safety audit Flynas passed the IATA Operational Safety Audit (IOSA). Flynas is an Saudi Arabian low-cost airline. It started operating flights in 2007 and currently uses two Airbus A319s; 26 A320s and two A320neos on flights to destinations in Africa, Asia and Europe. The IOSA programme is an evaluation system designed to assess the operational management and control systems of an airline. IOSA uses internationally recognised quality audit principles and is designed to conduct audits in a standardised and consistent manner. It was created in 2003 by IATA. All IATA members are IOSA registered and must remain registered to maintain IATA membership. https://news.aviation-safety.net/2019/03/21/flynas-passes-iata-safety-audit/ Back to Top FAA extends flight prohibition for Libyan airspace, now allows overflight at FL300 and above 20 March 2019 Tripoli FIR (HLLL) The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued a new Notam, extending the flight prohibition for certain U.S. aircraft for the Libyan airspace by another two years to March 20, 2021. This action extends the prohibition of U.S. civil flight operations in the Tripoli FIR (HLLL) at altitudes below Flight Level (FL) 300 to safeguard against continuing hazards to U.S. civil aviation. However, this action also reduces the scope of the prohibition, permitting U.S. civil aviation overflights of the Tripoli FIR (HLLL) at altitudes at and above FL300 to resume, due to the reduced risk to U.S. civil aviation operations at those altitudes. https://news.aviation-safety.net/2019/03/20/faa-extends-flight-prohibition-for-libyan-airspace-now-allows-overflight-at-fl300-and- above/ Back to Top Research: Why Struggling Airlines Spend More on Safety Every airline worth its salt claims to value passenger safety over and above all else. But, realistically, airlines must balance the often-conflicting imperatives of safety and profitability. Inevitably, moments will arise where executives ask not, "How safe can we possibly be?" but "How safe must we be?" or "How safe can we afford to be?" These tough, troubling questions are an inescapable fact of doing business in an industry centered around potentially hazardous technology. In our forthcoming article in Organization Science we describe our research into airlines' management of these complex trade-offs and, in particular, how financial performance affects an airline's focus on safety. When we began our research, our assumption was that the most successful airlines (those with secure profitability) would be leading the pack on the safety front - and this overall view is supported by previous research. But in our work, we specifically examined when airlines decided to replace particular aircraft. In this particular context we found instead that airlines with lower profitability were more likely to choose to invest in new aircraft after a crash of a model in their fleet - like that of the Boeing 737 Max 8 recently- even if the flight was not being operated by that airline. Altering the composition of the fleet - replacing older models of aircraft that have less- than-stellar accident records with models considered to be very safe - is one of the ways top-level airline management can improve safety. As one might expect, these transactions usually involve selling at a discount and buying at a premium. This means the airline loses out financially on the deal. To track aircraft sales and purchases, we obtained fleet composition statistics via the website www.airfleets.net, which features full data on passenger aircraft across the entire industry. From the same website, we accessed accident records for all global airlines, which we narrowed down to incidents resulting in an airplane being deemed permanently unfit to fly. This category of mishap (termed "hull loss accidents") includes tragic crashes, of course, but also serious electrical fires, water landings, and any other event rendering repairs either futile or too costly. We also assessed the tenor of media coverage for each aircraft model in the sample, as we assumed that the publicity around the planes would affect fleet management decisions. A high-profile accident that was widely reported would have an outsized impact on airlines' safety-based calculus. Then we traced the connections between the changing composition of an airline's fleet and its commercial fortunes (though before doing so we had to filter out of our sample many smaller airlines in developing countries for which reliable financial performance data could not be obtained). We found that airlines with above-average safety records responded to increased accident rates of models in their fleet by changing their fleet composition. But, interestingly, this effect was stronger for airlines with a lower level of profitability. Suppose that two airlines start with an equally high above-average safety but differing levels of profitability. If they both experience a same-size reduction in the safety rating, the low-profit airline would on average increase its aircraft sales by 55% as compared to the high-profit airline, which would only increase its aircraft sales by 29%. And among airlines with relatively high accident rates, financial performance played an even more decisive role: Underperforming carriers disposed of aircraft in a bid to improve safety, but the prosperous ones did not bother. For airlines equally far below the industry average safety record, an airline with low profitability is 50% more likely to sell aircraft than the one with high profitability. It shouldn't come as a surprise, then, that Indonesia's Lion Air is reportedly planning to drop a $22 billion order for 737 Max aircraft in favor of Airbus planes following both the recent Ethiopia Air crash and its own tragedy in October last year when one of its own Max jets crashed minutes after takeoff killing all passengers and crew. It might seem strange that financially struggling airlines are the most willing to spend more on safety, but we believe that it has to do with the way organizations think about survival: Airlines whose profits are riding high can survive a scandal, and their executives know it. Their less successful peers may already be bordering on failure and could ill afford the public outcry that a prominent accident would cause. It's also worth noting that the buying and selling of aircraft for safety's sake was influenced mostly by accident rates, but media tenor was a significant factor too. Take the barrage of negative press coverage surrounding the Boeing 787 Dreamliner following a series of battery fires in 2013 and 2014. Even though the worst initial fires happened while the planes were recharging on the runway without any passengers on board, a cloud of suspicion shadows the Dreamliner to this day. Correspondingly, we found that negative press exerted its own influence on aircraft sales and purchases, independent of actual hull loss rates. Public perception of the safety and actual safety records of aircraft appear to be two separate boxes that carriers feel compelled to tick, especially in economically lean times. So are industry-leading carriers less safe than the underdogs? Not quite. We know from the previous studies mentioned earlier that there is in fact a direct correlation between airlines' profitability and their safety record. Safety is affected by more than just the makes and models of aircraft in the fleet; what employees do on the ground and in flight arguably matters more. Putting safety first often comes down to questions like: Are best practices being scrupulously followed? Are flight crew given time to perform sufficiently thorough checks before takeoff? And when profits are down and pay raises scarce, the temptation to cut corners can be strong enough to neutralize the prudent plans of the C-suite. No matter how many suspect planes an airline puts out of commission, if managers do not tackle these issues, safety will still be a problem. Our findings show that, their impact notwithstanding, the choices managers make in navigating tough trade-offs like safety versus profitability will change based on context. When the stakes - in both financial and human terms - are high, decision-makers safety over profitability, choosing pricey survival over low-cost risk. https://hbr.org/2019/03/research-why-struggling-airlines-spend-more-on-safety Back to Top FAA Tells Cirrus Pilots to Pay Special Attention to Ailerons During Preflight Simple maintenance fix could prevent an accident. A Cirrus SR-20 similar to this one was involved in a near-fatal controllability accident in May 2018. The FAA's Chicago Aircraft Certification Branch posted an aviation maintenance update late Tuesday for both the Cirrus SR-20 and SR-22 resulting from the investigation into a near-fatal accident at Houston Executive Airport in Katy Texas in May of 2018. The pilot of the Cirrus SR-20 involved in the accident reported shortly after takeoff, that he could not maintain roll control of the airplane as the airplane began to roll to the left. The pilot was able to counteract with right aileron input initially, but the airplane continued to roll to the left. The pilot continued to use right aileron and trim, lowered the nose, and executed a straight-in forced landing just beyond the departure end of the runway. The pilot received only minor injuries. Examination of the airplane after the accident revealed that the left aileron actuation arm and attach bolt were missing with no associated impact damage. Further investigation indicated that the safety wire was missing from the actuation bolt. Read More: Examining the Aftermath of the June 2016 Crash of a Cirrus SR20 Because the bolt is readily visible during a walk around inspection, the FAA is recommending that all owners and operators visually verify the presence of the required safety wire before further flight. If safety wire is not present, have a qualified maintenance provider correct the situation before further flight. In addition, Cirrus aircraft will be updating their recommended pilot preflight walk around to better define the examination of the aileron area and the maintenance manuals to emphasize the requirement of proper safety wiring the associated hardware. https://www.flyingmag.com/cirrus-ailerons-preflight-special-attention Back to Top NTSB: United Express regional jet missed runway in Maine A United Express regional jet that slid off a runway during a snow storm is seen where it came to a rest at Presque Isle International Airport on Monday, March 4, 2019, in Presque Isle, Maine. National Transportation Safety Board investigators arrived in Maine on Tuesday to determine why the United Express regional jet slid off a runway, injuring a pilot and four passengers. (Cassie Daigle via AP) PRESQUE ISLE, Maine (AP) - The National Transportation Safety Board says a United Express regional jet didn't slide off a runway in Maine - it missed the runway altogether. A preliminary report Thursday indicates the 50-seat Embraer 145 approached to the right of the runway on an aborted first landing attempt and then again when it touched down March 4 at Presque Isle International Airport. The document indicates it landed between the runway and taxiway. Photos suggest the jet plowed through the deep snow alongside the runway before coming to an abrupt stop. Some of the landing gear was ripped off and ended up stuck in an engine cowling. The NTSB report said one crew member and two passengers being hurt. The Commuter-operated flight from Newark, New Jersey, had 28 passengers and three crew members. https://www.heraldcourier.com/news/ntsb-united-express-regional-jet-missed-runway- in-maine/article_f53c57cb-6936-5c6a-8b27-11538c9afaa0.html Back to Top Etihad is still bleeding money. Is it time to merge with Emirates? Dubai (CNN Business)Etihad Airways has often come to the rescue of struggling airlines. Now it has serious problems of its own and may have to consider merging with its bigger neighbor to cut its losses. The Abu Dhabi airline has racked up about $4.7 billion of losses in the last three years as investments in Alitalia, Air Berlin and India's Jet Airways turned sour and competition from rivals bit into revenue. It's a dramatic reversal of fortune for the second national carrier of the United Arab Emirates. Together with Emirates, based down the road in Dubai, and Qatar Airways, Etihad helped transform global aviation in recent decades by using its Gulf hub to fly millions of people between east and west. "The concept of using the UAE region as ... connecting point for East-West air travel made sense up until about three years ago, when the traffic flows were pretty much optimized," said Mike Boyd, president of aviation consultancy firm, Boyd Group International. The volume of passengers using UAE airspace "has likely reached its peak," he added. The UAE already has some of the world's busiest skies. In 2017, the government created new airways to streamline the huge volume of traffic and reduce delays. Now analysts are questioning whether the UAE still needs two global players. Emirates, the older and bigger of the two national carriers, has remained profitable over three decades. In 2017, it agreed an extensive partnership with low-cost carrier FlyDubai that included coordinating their schedules and aligning their airport operations. "The region is now in an overcapacity mode and that means that some consolidation may be in the works," Boyd said. Emirates has already been touted as a possible savior for Etihad. Bloomberg reported in September that the airlines were in talks to merge and create the world's biggest carrier by passenger traffic. Neither would comment on what they described as "rumor or speculation," but Etihad CEO Tony Douglas poured scorn on the Bloomberg report in a recent interview with Arabian Business magazine. In 2017, Emirates President Tim Clark said it was "early days" to talk about a merger with Etihad. And he made clear that such a decision would only be taken by the rulers of Dubai and Abu Dhabi. "I take guidance from my bosses. If they want to take it on we can do a lot of things," Clark said in an interview with CNN. "But if they wanted to go so far, I don't know." Whether they're talking about a merger or not, the two airlines have been forging closer ties. Last year, they agreed to cooperate in aviation security and also work together on aircraft maintenance and repair. In January, Etihad asked an Emirates subsidiary to manage its customer service centers. Aviation industry consultant John Strickland said the two airlines are coming together to "achieve cost efficiencies" but he doesn't expect a merger any time soon. Etihad managed to shrink its loss from $1.52 billion in 2017 to $1.28 billion in 2018. Losing a million passengers Cutting costs is only half the battle. Etihad is also struggling to maintain passenger numbers at a time when traffic continues to grow. It carried more than a million passengers fewer in 2018 than a year earlier. That hurt its load factor, which measures how many seats are filled on each flight. "[Etihad's] losses, whilst heavy, were at least reduced year on year but the load factor at around 76% was disappointingly weak for a predominantly long haul carrier with much feeder traffic and despite reduced capacity," added Strickland. The International Air Transport Association expects 290 million more passengers will travel to, from and within the Gulf region by 2037. A merged Emirates-Etihad airline could serve those passengers more efficiently. "If Etihad were a private sector carrier, it would be unlikely the airline would be able to sustain such extensive losses," said Henry Harteveldt, travel industry analyst at Atmosphere Research Group. Etihad and Emirates serve similar markets and "a merger would allow the combined entity to rationalize capacity, and adjust schedules to better compete," he added. https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/21/business/etihad-emirates-merger/index.html Back to Top Indonesian airline Garuda is canceling its $6 billion order for 49 Boeing 737 Max jets * Garuda Indonesia said Friday it may change its 737 Max order to another type of Boeing jet. * Boeing 737 Max planes have been grounded by authorities in multiple countries after two recent fatal crashes. A Boeing 737 MAX sits outside the hangar during a media tour at the Boeing plant in Renton, Washington. Airline Garuda Indonesia said Friday it is requesting a cancellation to its current order for 49 Boeing 737 Max jets valued at $6 billion. Reuters, citing Garuda's CFO, said the company may change its 737 Max order to another type of Boeing jet. The national carrier of Indonesia did not explain why it no longer wanted the planes. In response to CNBC's request for comment, Garuda spokesman Ikhsan Rosan said the airline sent a letter to Boeing on March 14 to cancel its order for the 737 Max jets. Garuda has not heard back from Boeing, but the aircraft manufacturer will visit Jakarta on March 28 for "further discussion," said Rosan. Garuda currently only has one Boeing 737 Max 8 in its fleet, according to Reuters. The Indonesian airline is the first to publicly confirmed plans to cancel an order for the Boeing jets after two fatal crashes involving the 737 Max 8. The planes have been grounded by authorities in multiple countries - including in the U.S., Europe, China and Indonesia. A Boeing 737 Max 8 operated by Indonesia's Lion Air crashed into the Java Sea last October, killing all 189 people on board. Investigators suspect a malfunction in the flight control system is a contributing factor to both crashes. Less than five months later, the same plane model operated by Ethiopian Airlines crashed. None of the 157 on board the flight survived. Ethiopian Transport Minister Dagmawit Moges said that preliminary data retrieved from the plane's flight data recorder showed "a clear similarity" with the Indonesian crash. The two incidents have also led to the U.S. Department of Transportation to ask for an audit of the Federal Aviation Administration's approval of Boeing's 737 Max 8 planes, while the FBI has reportedly joined in a criminal investigation of the certification process for the jets. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/22/indonesias-garuda-canceling-its-order-for-49- boeing-737-max-jets.html Back to Top Business Aviation Safety Consortium (BASC) Membership Now Accepted as a Safety Management Best-practice Along With IS-BAO Registry in USAIG Performance Vector PLUS Program New York, NY (March 21, 2019)... USAIG, a leading international aviation insurance underwriter, now adds more value to its coverages with Performance Vector (PV) PLUS. Since its inception in 2013, PV PLUS has incentivized safety best-practices among USAIG's business aviation policyholders with this good experience return (GER) program. This individual GER program returns 5 percent of premium to business aviation operators for each of three best-practice safety and loss control criteria they employ-allowing operators that employ all three to recoup a combined 15% of their premium after a no-loss year. One PV PLUS criteria focuses on having standardized procedures and integrating safety management principles, demonstrated to this point by being IS-BAO-registered. USAIG now views fulfilling all requirements of BASC full-service membership as demonstrating, in similar fashion, that the flight organization has integrated and is employing standardization and safety management principles at a high level. Accordingly, business aviation policyholders can now qualify for a 5 percent PV PLUS good experience return by being IS-BAO registered or meeting the requirements of a BASC full-service member organization. "The PV PLUS component to "Achieve or maintain IS-BAO Registry" was established because the process of meeting the IS-BAO standard and passing external IS-BAO audits strengthens the standardization and safety practices of a flight operation and serves to validate the presence and effectiveness of managerial safety functions," explains Paul Ratté, USAIG director of aviation safety programs. "IS-BAO registration continues to function in that way as a hallmark of organizational commitment to safety principles. Over the last few years, BASC has grown steadily and established itself as an effective alternative resource that spurs and helps business aviation organizations to optimize the effectiveness of their safety management and standardization practices." BASC Founder and President Rick Malczynski noted that full service BASC membership is a "sensible solution, conceptualized directly through input from operators." Member organizations participate in a progressive and continuing external and internal audit program, quarterly continuing education sessions presented by industry experts, nationwide safety roundtables that are webcasted and archived, and a data sharing program that focuses on the questions and areas most commonly queried by operators. Malczynski added, "every BASC Standardization Board member is a current operator who advocates for, and answers to, all members regarding timely and important issues within the industry. There are no vendors or non-operational dignitaries. Our vision is unique in its advocacy for total collusion. BASC and the entire membership form a partnership to ensure and maintain the highest levels of safety, excellence, and continuous improvement." Through Performance Vector PLUS, USAIG insured business aviation operators qualify for a 5 percent premium return when they maintain favorable loss experience and meet any of these safety standards: * Achieve IS-BAO registry OR meet the requirements of a BASC full-service member organization 5 percent premium return * Twice-yearly pilot simulation-based training in make and model flown 5 percent premium return * Fleet use of approved FOQA/FDM program 5 percent premium return Qualified business aviation operators who meet all three criteria can earn a total GER of 15 percent and an expanded package of Performance Vector safety programs. "USAIG continually evaluates its PV PLUS criteria and considers the views and experience of its policyholder organizations as important indicators," said USAIG President and CEO John Brogan. He continued, "BASC's collaborative structure, coupled with the strong support it has earned from participating business flight organizations, indicates it is finding a strong cultural fit with many flight departments to inspire and activate positive safety impacts. That makes BASC membership a worthy loss-control measure for us to incentivize." Learn More About USAIG's Performance Vector PLUS Program and BASC: USAIG's Performance Vector PLUS program details can be found on our website. To learn more about BASC membership, visit their website and find out more about the benefits of joining BASC. https://www.usau.com/safety/performance-vector-plus/ Back to Top Two space station astronauts to tackle challenging spacewalk Space station astronauts Anne McClain and Nick Hague suited up for a planned six-and- a-half-hour spacewalk Friday, the first of two needed to install a second set of more powerful lithium-ion batteries in the International Space Station's solar power system. Floating in the station's Quest airlock, the astronauts were expected switch their spacesuits to battery power around 8 a.m. EDT, officially kicking off the 214th spacewalk since ISS assembly began in 1998. For identification, McClain, call sign EV-1, will wear a suit with red stripes and use helmet camera No. 20. Hague, EV-2, will wear an unmarked suit and using helmet camera 17. The goal of the outing is to finish a job already started by flight controllers using the station's robot arm: replacing six massive nickel-hydrogen batteries on the port, or left, side of the station's power truss with three more powerful 300-pound lithium-ion batteries. McClain and Hague will install adapter plates needed to tie the new batteries into the station's electric grid and to provide mounting points where some of the older units can be stored. The rest will be mounted on a pallet for disposal aboard a future cargo ship. Astronaut Anne McClain, center, assists space station crewmates Christina Koch, left, and Nick Hague as they prepare suits for three rapid-fire spacewalks. McClain and Hague suited up Friday for the first of two spacewalks to replace batteries in the lab's solar power system. McClain and Koch will carry out a second battery replacement outing next Friday while Hague and Canadian astronaut David Saint-Jacques will stage a third spacewalk April 8. If all goes well, McClain and newly arrived crewmate Christina Koch will carry out the second battery replacement EVA next Friday to install another set of three LIOH batteries and adaptor plates on the port inboard truss. In so doing, they would chalk up the first all-female space outing since cosmonaut Alexey Leonov carried out history's first spacewalk in 1965. McClain and Koch will become the 13th and 14th women to walk in space since cosmonaut Svetlana Savitskaya became the first in 1984. NASA astronaut Kathryn Sullivan because the first U.S. female spacewalker later that same year. The assignment of McClain and Koch is partly the result of chance -- the batteries originally were to be installed last fall but the work was delayed by a variety of issues -- and a desire by NASA management to give more of the agency's astronauts spacewalk experience. "There were a lot of circumstances that got us here," said Kenny Todd, a senior space station manager at the Johnson Space Center in Houston. "It's fantastic it turned out that way, but it starts with just basic competence and capabilities. We're very blessed right now. It's a great opportunity, it's a great way to highlight some of the things that are going on here, but these two spacewalkers are just solid. Solid, solid astronauts." The station's solar array truss stretches the length of a football field and features eight huge solar wings, four on each end arranged in pairs. The arrays power the station's myriad systems when the lab is in sunlight and, at the same time, they re-charge four sets of massive batteries mounted in integrated electronics assemblies, or IEAs. When the station moves into orbital darkness, the batteries kick in to keep the station powered. "We go through a sunrise-sunset about every 90 minutes on station, so we don't have the benefit of having the sun all the time," said Mary Lawrence, the spacewalk flight director for the upcoming EVAs. "So we need a place to kind of store energy. "As we transition from sunlight into darkness, the power seamlessly switches between solar array power and battery power. So these batteries are critical systems." The station's eight electrical power channels originally were supported by 48 nickel- hydrogen -- NiH2 -- batteries, six per channel. Twenty-four batteries, in two sets of 12, were mounted at the bases of the two solar array wings on the starboard, or right, side of the station's main truss with two sets of 12 on the port side. NASA is in the process of replacing all 48 of the old nickel-hydrogen batteries with smaller, more efficient lithium-ion -- Li-Ion -- batteries carried up to the station aboard Japanese HTV cargo ships. "It's an ongoing maintenance operation, it's one we put in place several years with the purchase of the lithium-ion batteries, stepping up the technology," Todd said. "Just like your rechargeable batteries at home, eventually over time they're not going to recharge as well, they're not going to hold as much charge when it comes to putting loads on them. "Over the life of station, we knew this was going to happen, we knew the batteries were going to have to be replaced, so we started last year on the starboard side." The 12 nickel-hydrogen batteries on the inboard starboard 4, or S4, truss segment powering electrical channels 1A and 3A were replaced by six lithium-ion batteries during spacewalks in January 2017. Friday's spacewalk and the EVA next week are devoted to installing another six, three at a time, on the inboard port 4, or P4, truss segment for the 2A and 4A power channels. The outboard batteries will be installed during future spacewalks. Replacing the batteries is a complex shell game of sorts. At the start of the first spacewalk, power channel 4A had already been isolated from the station's electrical grid and the six older nickel-hydrogen batteries powering that channel were drained. Flight controllers remotely operating the station's robot arm had already removed three of the older nickel-hydrogen batteries and replaced them with three of the new lithium- ion batteries in slots one, three and five. Two older NiH2 batteries were still in place in slots two and four while the slot six was empty. Its battery was removed earlier. With the three power channel 4A lithium-ion batteries already in place, McClain and Hague had to install three adapter plates to tie them into the station's solar array power system and to provide storage locations for the two older batteries that were still in place when the spacewalk began. With that work done, flight controllers would be free to bring power channel 4A back into the station's electrical grid. McCain and Koch will tackle the power channel 2A battery swap outs next Friday. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/spacewalk-nasa-astronauts-international-space- station-today-2019-03-22/ Back to Top GRADUATE RESEARCH SURVEY Participants for a 5-minute survey regarding hypoxia and high altitude chamber training are being sought for a study assessing hypoxia perceptions and experiences related to hypoxia awareness training. To be eligible for participation, you must have previously completed high altitude chamber training. All responses are anonymous and no identifying information will be collected. The study is being conducted by Kasey Stevenson, a graduate student studying Aviation Management and Human Factors at Arizona State University. Kasey's research is being conducted at the Del E. Webb High Altitude Chamber; previously the Williams Air Force Base High Altitude Chamber. The research is being completed with the goal of improving hypoxia awareness and training methods, in an effort to reduce hypoxia-related incidents and accidents. The survey can be accessed at: https://asu.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_ealbH4xwJRL8P2J Curt Lewis