Flight Safety Information SEPTEMBER 12, 2019 - No. 184 In This Issue European regulator plans its own test flights of Boeing 737 MAX in sign of rift with FAA Boeing CEO: Global aviation regulators may not clear 737 Max to fly at the same time Accident: Avianca AT72 at Manizales on Sep 7th 2019, tail strike on landing Incident: Jetblue A321 near Nassau on Sep 11th 2019, cargo smoke indication, then engine fire warning Cessna 208 Caravan I - Fatal Accident (Germany) Private Jet Catches Fire At Oakland International; Main Runway Blocked Woman injured after airplane flips at St. Augustine airport Tackling spatial disorientation: A deadly threat to aviation safety Australian Aviation Agency Looks To Simplify Regulatory Structure NTSB says there was no 'black box' on plane that crashed near Toledo Express Airport Bilateral Aviation Safety Agreements: Pro or Con? The Secret Life of Regional Airlines Airbus wants to know everything passengers do on an airplane - including how often they use the bathroom Electric Aircraft - A new era for aviation? Boeing: New 777X Issues Won't Impact Test Schedule Boeing Chief Sees US-China Trade War As Sales Risk For Big Jets Future Moonwalkers Need Geology Training, Apollo 17's Harrison Schmitt Says Aviation Cybersecurity Survey European regulator plans its own test flights of Boeing 737 MAX in sign of rift with FAA Boeing has stored 100 of its undelivered 737 MAX airplanes at the Moses Lake airport while it awaits clearance from the FAA Europe's aviation regulator will send its own test pilots and engineers to fly forthcoming certification flight tests of Boeing's newly modified 737 MAX, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) said Tuesday. In addition, EASA said it favors a design that takes readings from three independent Angle of Attack sensors rather than the two-sensor system in Boeing's proposed upgrade to the MAX. The European agency's stance underscores how badly the two deadly MAX crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia have disrupted the harmony in international aviation that previously granted primacy to the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). In little-noted comments at the European Parliament last week, the French executive director of EASA, Patrick Ky, had pointed words for his American counterparts. "The FAA is in a very difficult situation," said Ky in a video of his address to the Transport committee of the European Parliament. "When they will say, this (airplane) is good to go, it's very likely that international authorities will want a second opinion, or a third opinion." "That was not the case one year ago," Ky added. "I think that's going to be a very strong change in the overall worldwide hierarchy or relationship between the different authorities." Although EASA said it's not mandating how Boeing must address its concern over the Angle of Attack system redesign, Tuesday's declaration that it would prefer a three- sensor system was a more specific critique than that laid out in Ky's slide presentation last week, which said Boeing had "still no appropriate response to Angle of Attack integrity issues." Installation of a third Angle of Attack sensor in the MAX could be an expensive and prolonged process and might affect not only the new 737 MAX jet but the thousands of older model 737s in service around the world, which all come with just two such sensors. Boeing declined to comment. EASA's elaboration Tuesday of its differences with the FAA is a further sign of the differences that have emerged since the October and March crashes that killed 346 people and caused the plane to be grounded worldwide. According to insiders, the FAA is all but set to approve Boeing's proposed MAX redesign. An FAA spokesman, citing the example of several Airbus jets, said, "It's common for aviation authorities to conduct test flights of new aircraft and major derivatives that other civil aviation authorities certificate." The spokesman added: "We continue to work with other international aviation safety regulators and will carefully consider all recommendations. The FAA will incorporate any changes that would improve our certification activities." For Boeing, any daylight between the various regulators could be a massive problem. As it moves closer to finalizing its proposed fix for the 737 MAX, it's struggling with the deep divergence between the FAA and corresponding air safety regulators overseas, most critically EASA. Ky told the European committee his agency's insistence on conducting a broad new independent review of the design of all the safety-critical systems on the MAX was "not very popular with our American colleagues." But he said such a new review was necessary because there were parts of the original MAX design that EASA "had not completely certified ourselves, because we had delegated some of the tasks to the FAA." As a result, he said EASA decided "to basically re-certify the parts that are safety critical that we hadn't looked at in the previous instance." He said this included but was not confined to the new flight-control system - called MCAS (Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System) - that was triggered in both crashes by a faulty Angle of Attack signal and repeatedly pushed down the nose of each jet until the pilots lost control. Ky said an imminent report from an international panel of aviation-safety experts set up by the FAA to review the certification of the MAX - and representing 11 separate regulators including EASA and its Canadian and Chinese counterparts - will cast "a critical eye on this notion of delegation from the FAA to Boeing." This Joint Authority Technical Review (JATR) report is expected any day now, and Ky said it will have a particular focus on the system safety assessment "of this famous MCAS, which was a major, if not the major, contributor to both accidents ... which had been auto-certified by Boeing." "Yes, there was a problem in this notion of delegation by the FAA of the MCAS safety assessment to Boeing," Ky told the EU Parliament committee. "This would not happen in our system," he insisted. "Everything which is safety-critical, everything which is innovative ... has to be seen by us and not delegated." https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/european-regulator-plans- its-own-test-flights-of-boeing-737-max-in-sign-of-differences-with-faa/ Back to Top Boeing CEO: Global aviation regulators may not clear 737 Max to fly at the same time * Boeing's CEO says he still expects the 737 Max planes to return to service in the fourth quarter of 2019. * Dennis Muilenburg acknowledged that regulators may not all agree when to allow the planes to fly again. * Boeing's 737 Max has been grounded since mid-March after two fatal crashes. The Boeing 737 Max, grounded for the last six months after two fatal crashes, might not return to service in every country on the same timeline, depending on when global regulators deem the plane airworthy, CEO Dennis Muilenburg said Wednesday. The manufacturer has developed a software fix for the jets, its best-selling plane, but hasn't yet submitted it to regulators for approval. Muilenburg told an industry conference that Boeing still expects the planes to return to service early in the fourth quarter, but regulators across the globe may not clear it for flight at the same time. "I think the phased ungrounding of the airplane amongst regulators around the world is a possibility," he said. Boeing shares were up by about 3% in afternoon trading. Earlier this month, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency, the Federal Aviation Administration's counterpart in Europe, said questions remained about the angle-of- attack sensors on the planes, which measure the angle of the plane compared with oncoming air. Erroneous data from these sensors were implicated in both 737 Max crashes, in which a flight-control software that automatically pushes the nose of the planes downward when it senses a stall was activated. Boeing changed the flight control system, known as MCAS, to feed it data from two sensors instead of just one, as a second check to ensure the data is accurate. In a presentation for the European Parliament, EASA's executive director, Patrick Ky, said that there was "still no appropriate response to angle of attack integrity issues." "We're going to respect individual questions from different regulators," Muilenburg said. "EASA has brought up some questions that we're working our way through. I wouldn't see those as divisive." The questions don't "necessarily mean hardware changes," but that they can likely be answered with simulators and software, if needed, he added. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/11/boeing-737-max-may-not-be-cleared-by-all-global- aviation-regulators-all-at-once.html Back to Top Accident: Avianca AT72 at Manizales on Sep 7th 2019, tail strike on landing An Avianca Avions de Transport Regional ATR-72-212A, registration HK-5041 performing flight AV-4852 from Bogota to Manizales (Colombia), landed on Manizales' La Nubia Airport's runway 10 at about 11:00L (16:00Z) but struck its tail onto the runway surface and bounced. The aircraft rolled out and taxied to the apron. There were no injuries, the aircraft received substantial damage however. Metars: SKMZ 071800Z 33004KT 9999 BKN080 22/14 A3027 RMK HZ/W= SKMZ 071700Z 31007KT 9999 SCT050 21/13 A3032 RMK HZ/W= SKMZ 071600Z 26005KT 9999 SCT040 21/12 A3033 RMK HZ/W= SKMZ 071500Z 31005KT 9999 SCT050 20/13 A3034 RMK HZ/W= SKMZ 071400Z 29004KT 9999 SCT050 19/12 A3035 RMK HZ/W= SKMZ 071300Z 00000KT 9999 NSC 18/11 A3035 RMK HZ/W= SKMZ 071200Z 10004KT 9999 NSC 14/10 A3033 RMK HZ/W= Surveillance Camera Recording (Video: La Patria/La Nubia Airport): Aterrizaje avión de Avianca en el aeropuerto La Nubia 7 de septiembre del 2019 http://avherald.com/h?article=4ccb3f49&opt=0 Back to Top Incident: Jetblue A321 near Nassau on Sep 11th 2019, cargo smoke indication, then engine fire warning A Jetblue Airbus A321-200, registration N958JB performing flight B6-1706 from Santo Domingo (Dominican Republic) to Orlando,FL (USA) with 166 passengers and 6 crew, was enroute at FL360 about 170nm southeast of Nassau (Bahamas) when the crew received a cargo smoke indication and decided to divert to Nassau. The aircraft landed safely on Nassau's runway 32 about 25 minutes later. Once on the ground the crew received an engine (V2533) fire warning, stopped the aircraft and initiated an evacuation via slides. No injuries are being reported. The occurrence aircraft is still on the ground in Nassau about 8 hours after landing. A replacement A321-200 registration N972JT was dispatched to Nassau to continue the flight. http://avherald.com/h?article=4ccb4c1b&opt=0 Back to Top Back to Top Cessna 208 Caravan I - Fatal Accident (Germany) Date: Wednesday 11 September 2019 Time: 15:10 Type: Cessna 208 Caravan I Operator: GoJump Registration: D-FIDI C/n / msn: 208-00301 First flight: 1999 Crew: Fatalities: 1 / Occupants: 1 Passengers: Fatalities: 0 / Occupants: 0 Total: Fatalities: 1 / Occupants: 1 Aircraft damage: Damaged beyond repair Location: near Gransee Airfield ( Germany) Phase: Approach (APR) Nature: Parachuting Departure airport: Gransee Airfield (EDOG), Germany Destination airport: Gransee Airfield (EDOG), Germany Narrative: A Cessna 208 crashed in open field terrain near Gransee Airfield after dropping 14 skydivers. https://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20190911-1 Back to Top Private Jet Catches Fire At Oakland International; Main Runway Blocked OAKLAND (CBS SF) - A Cessna Citation blew a tire while rolling toward its takeoff at Oakland International Airport Wednesday, igniting a small fire and shutting down the main runway, officials said. Officials said the incident took place at 1:47 p.m. on Runway 30. While the plane was preparing for takeoff, a tire exploded and the wheel well caught fire. Emergency crew responded and quickly extinguished the blaze. Two people aboard the plane were able to safely escape without any injuries. There was no estimate as to when the runway was to be reopened. All traffic at the airport was being rerouted to Runway 30. Airport officials said the North Field runways would be used for jet departures and landings. The aircraft will overfly residential areas and residents will experience unusual aircraft noise. https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2019/09/11/private-jet-catches-fire-at-oakland- international-runway-blocked/ Back to Top Woman injured after airplane flips at St. Augustine airport Two people were injured Wednesday after a small plane flipped over shortly after landing at the Northeast Florida Regional Airport in St. Augustine. For reasons yet to be determined, the plane ran off the runway after landing around 5:30 p.m. and then flipped upside down, according to Florida Highway Patrol. Rescue crews responded to the scene, but the two people inside the plane were able to walk away, according to St. Johns County Sheriff's Office spokesman Chuck Mulligan. Patricia Wagstaff, the 68-year-old St. Augustine woman who was listed as the pilot of the 1958 Beech K35 airplane, suffered minor injuries but was not taken to a hospital, according to FHP. No other details were immediately available. FAA will investigate the cause of the incident. https://www.staugustine.com/news/20190911/woman-injured-after-airplane-flips-at-st- augustine-airport Back to Top Tackling spatial disorientation: A deadly threat to aviation safety Dr. Henry Williams, senior research psychologist in the Naval Aerospace Medical Spatial disorientation (SD) refers to a pilot's misperception of the attitude, position, or motion of his/her aircraft with respect to the Earth's surface and/or gravitational vertical. The Naval Safety Center has cited SD as the number one contributing aeromedical factor in fatal aviation mishaps. When SD occurs, it typically does so in some form of degraded visual environment where the pilot lacks a clear view of the horizon, such as flight at night, in the clouds, or in blowing snow or sand. These are all conditions in which our military aviation personnel must operate. Without a visible horizon even the normal forces of flight can create powerful illusions that become extremely disorienting. If not recognized and resolved quickly, SD can lead to controlled flight into terrain, midair collision, entry into unusual attitudes, or inappropriate control inputs resulting in aircraft stall, loss of control, and/or structural failure. If SD leads to a mishap, it is usually a fatal mishap. While several studies have examined the effects of SD on cognition or have linked increased cockpit workload to SD, few specifically and systematically compared how various types of workload interfere with maintenance of spatial orientation. Along with our Air Force and Army colleagues, Naval Medical Research Unit Dayton's (NAMRU- Dayton) SD Lab is looking into this issue with support from the Defense Health Agency Research and Development Directorate and the JPC-5 Aviation Mishap Prevention Working Group. In a recent study in our lab, 24 pilots flew simulated flights where they followed a lead aircraft first above, then into dense clouds. The lead aircraft then disappeared while in a turn, whereupon the subject was to recover to straight and level flight. Four different workload conditions were presented. The baseline condition included no additional workload, while the other conditions added either a verbal working memory task, a spatial mental rotation task, or a spatial variable-following-distance task. Measures of flight performance included the number of control reversal errors (CRE's), where the subject banked the aircraft in the wrong direction during recovery, and instances of unusual attitudes in the clouds. The results showed that the verbal working memory task condition led to a statistically significant threefold increase in the number of control reversal errors, while the mental rotation and variable-following-distance task conditions yielded significant increases in unusual attitudes. This type of research helps scientists better understand SD because it shows that cockpit workload need not be spatial in nature in order to increase SD incidence, since it was the verbal task that led to the most CREs. This work also demonstrates the importance of using various measures of SD; the two spatial workload tasks would have appeared to have had no effect on pilot performance were it not for the unusual attitudes metric. Decreasing the occurrence of SD is an ongoing challenge. Through research like this we can increase our knowledge about SD and the conditions that can cause it, and in turn better educate our aircrew on how to avoid and recover from this deadly threat. https://www.dvidshub.net/news/339757/tackling-spatial-disorientation-deadly-threat- aviation-safety Back to Top Australian Aviation Agency Looks To Simplify Regulatory Structure Authority issues revised guidance for reporting defects, continues to pursue regulatory reform. The Australian Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA) recently published new guidance directed at maintenance organizations required to report defects. Advisory Circular (AC) 20-06 expands the scope of its predecessor to include all aviation maintenance reporting mandates, some of which were relocated to Civil Aviation Safety Regulation (CASR) in June 2011 as part of CASA's regulatory reform project. The guidance is applicable to aircraft maintained under Civil Aviation Regulations (CAR) Part 4B (i.e., charter operations) as well as aircraft maintained under the CASR Part 42 (i.e., regular public transport operations). Australia's new advisory circular aligns defect-reporting guidance with CASA's new regulatory structure. In addition to expanding the scope of applicable reporting obligations, the new AC replaces reference to "service difficulty reports" with "defect reports" and directs users to the latest defect-reporting portal (a system that was implemented in August 2016). In an effort to cut down on the number of unnecessary reports, the AC also sets forth a list of defects that do not require authority notification, including conditions where the fault cannot be confirmed or those caused by isolated maintenance errors. The defect-reporting AC replaces the now defunct Civil Aviation Advisory Publication (CAAP) 51-1(2). The undertaking-converting CAAPs issued in association with the CARs with ACs issued under the new CASRs-is one small piece of CASA's broader regulatory reform project. In an effort to simplify and harmonize its regulatory structure with international standards, CASA is migrating regulations, including its suite of airworthiness rules (i.e., Parts 42, 66, 145 and 147) to the CASRs. The intent is to create a new regulatory framework that is more logically organized and agile. The project timeline sets forth milestones through 2021. Other maintenance-related reform activities include post-implementation reviews of Part 66 (aircraft engineer licenses and ratings) and Part 145 (maintenance organizations). A technical working group for Part 66 convened in April 2018 to review issues identified through an industry consultation survey. Another working group began disseminating survey responses for Part 145 at its first meeting last November. The purpose of both committees is to evaluate industry feedback and provide recommendations to improve the CASR and further harmonize the regulations with the European Aviation Safety Agency system. https://www.mro-network.com/safety-regulatory/australian-aviation-agency-looks- simplify-regulatory-structure Back to Top NTSB says there was no 'black box' on plane that crashed near Toledo Express Airport SWANTON, Ohio (WTVG) - Investigators from the NTSB have a difficult path in front of them when it comes to finding out the cause of the cargo plane crash just outside of the Toledo Express Airport early Wednesday morning, as the more than 60-year-old plane it did not have a 'black box' installed. The Toledo Lucas County Port Authority has confirmed that two people were killed when a cargo plane crashed just outside of the Toledo Express Airport early Wednesday morning. The Ohio State Highway Patrol identified the victims as Douglas R. Taylor, 72, and Donald C. Peterson Sr., 69, both of Laredo, Texas. According to crews on the scene, the plane was a Convair cargo plane flying from Millington, Tennessee which crashed on top of at least two semis at Bubba's Auto and Deisel near the airport just after 2:30 a.m. According to a release from the Ohio State Highway Patrol, "The plane, a Convair CV- 440, was owned by Barker Aeromotive, Inc., and was loaded with automotive parts. Troopers worked with law enforcement officials in Texas notify next of kin." Police on the scene say the plane was fully engulfed by flames when they arrived on the scene. Port Authority officials say that fire is now extinguished. Police and fire crews from multiple departments arrived on scene to assist. A team from the National Transportation Safety Board is expected to arrive in Toledo around 4 p.m. Wednesday. Airport police say there was no mayday call from the plane and the first call they got was for the crash itself. Airport police say they did not get a mayday call before a cargo plane hauling auto parts crashed near the airport. No word on the extent of any injuries after a plane crash just before 3 a.m. Police had closed all roads surrounding the airport. As of 7:15 AM Airport Highway and Mescher are reopening to traffic. Eber (between Airport and Garden) and Garden (between Airport and Crissey) will remain closed. Representatives from the Federal Aviation Administration and the National Transportation Safety Board will be on hand later today to investigate the cause of that crash. https://www.13abc.com/content/news/Cargo-plane-crashes-near-Toledo-Express- Airport-560011491.html Back to Top Bilateral Aviation Safety Agreements: Pro or Con? Terms of bilateral aviation safety agreements can be tricky, but on balance they are often helpful, especially for smaller MROs. "To reduce compliance costs, improve access to foreign customers, and make oversight more efficient, Congress should encourage the FAA to enter into more Bilateral Aviation Safety Agreements [BASAs] and should refrain from enacting legislation that disrupts current international aviation accords." That statement, or something like it, has been included among ARSA's legislative priorities every year in recent memory. We represent a global industry, and the association supports intergovernment agreements that make oversight and compliance more efficient. BASAs make it easier for companies in one country to obtain the approval necessary to work on aviation products registered in another. ARSA encourages legislators, regulators and anyone else who will listen to recognize and reinforce "the important economic benefits of bilateral agreements." Those talking points are all sensible, but in the spirit of continuous improvement and to ensure our policy objectives are aligned with industry needs, ARSA's team regularly reevaluates our positions. So are bilateral agreements really working for the benefit of industry? The economic data suggests they are. BASAs allow regulators to rely on each other's findings when issuing or renewing approvals so, for example, rather than undergoing a full-blown certification process when applying for an approval from a foreign civil aviation authority (CAA), a U.S. company can use its FAA certificate and compliance with FAA regulations as the basis for the other country's certificate. That saves both companies and regulators resources-time, after all, is money. A 2011 ARSA study found that the cost for a U.S. repair station to be approved by the Civil Aviation Administration of China (with which the U.S. does not have a bilateral agreement) was almost three times the cost of gaining approval by the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) under the U.S.-European Union bilateral. The study reinforced the notion that small businesses benefit disproportionately from BASAs because big companies have more business activity over which to amortize certification costs. Thanks to the streamlined application and oversight process established by the U.S.-EU BASA, more than one-third of U.S. repair stations now hold EASA certificates and are serving a transatlantic customer base. But certifications based on BASAs also have their limitations. A foreign certificate doesn't allow your facility to work on every aviation product registered in that country. Because the certification from the domestic CAA serves as the basis for the foreign certificate, the domestic compliance obligations and ratings carry over to the foreign certificate. So, for example, if an aviation product registered in Europe doesn't have a U.S. type certificate, it is regulatorily impossible for a U.S. repair station to work on it. Another problem became evident to EASA-approval holders in the U.S. earlier this year. During the government shutdown, FAA employees responsible for forwarding certificate renewal requests to EASA were furloughed. The result? Many U.S. companies faced the risk that their EASA certification would expire. The situation was ultimately resolved but not before causing a lot of headaches for U.S. repair stations and both civil aviation authorities. In the absence of a BASA, or to work beyond the scope of the domestic ratings and limitations, one must apply for a "full-blown" certificate from that CAA. While doing so can provide more certainty and flexibility in the long run, there will be additional costs. Aside from the investment associated with the certification-application fees, paying for foreign regulators to travel to inspect your facility, etc.-MRO providers will incur significant internal costs. Those will include creating a new system to comply separately with foreign rules (that are inconsistent with U.S. regulations) and dealing with rules written in a language other than English. In the final analysis, the current system of BASAs has made it easier for maintenance organizations to gain the approvals necessary to serve most foreign customers. That, in turn, contributes to the industry's growth and has yielded compliance cost savings. We're also mindful of the oversight efficiencies BASAs create. The challenge for regulators is how to oversee a growing, global industry without proportionate increases in their budgets. Relying on trusted foreign government partners is clearly part of the solution. But there's plenty of room for improvement. The U.S.-Canada bilateral agreement, which allows certificated maintenance facilities on both sides of the border to work on products registered in the other country without obtaining additional certification, is a model that must be embraced more widely. ARSA stands by its commitment to BASAs but, as always, welcomes input. Sarah MacLeod is a managing member of Obadal, Filler, MacLeod & Klein, PLC, and a founder and executive director of the Aeronautical Repair Station Association. Christian A. Klein is a managing member of Obadal, Filler, MacLeod & Klein, PLC, overseeing the firm's policy advocacy practice. He is executive vice president of the Aeronautical Repair Station Association. https://www.mro-network.com/safety-regulatory/bilateral-aviation-safety-agreements- pro-or-con Back to Top The Secret Life of Regional Airlines Consolidation is coming to the crowded U.S. regional airline market, but national carriers may actually emerge the winners Operating margin Under the surface of the U.S. airline industry, 65 largely unknown regional carriers account for 40% of all flyers. After years of stability, they are once again facing a shake-up. Earlier this summer, Delta Air Lines said it would cut ties with two out of the five regional carriers it contracts to feed traffic to its hubs, confirming a trend toward fewer regional carriers flying longer distances. Not for the first time in recent years, the winners may be the major airlines. Regional carriers' transformation started after the U.S. airline deregulation of 1978. They moved toward almost exclusively flying planes painted with the colors of the majors, who are also the ones selling the tickets. Nowadays, most of their passengers aren't aware what airline they are actually using. Full-service carriers cut costs by outsourcing low-density routes to these companies, where pilots and crews are paid less. This is why trade unions impose "scope clauses" to limit the size of the planes they are allowed to fly. Two of the regional market leaders are publicly traded: SkyWest SKYW 2.53% -the biggest one, which carries more than 30 million passengers a year-and Mesa Airlines , MESA 3.44% which returned to the stock market last year following a 2010 bankruptcy. Even though data by the Regional Airline Association shows that the number of U.S. regional airlines has stayed close to 70 over the last 15 years, many have ended up being acquired by the same airline. American Airlines , for example, now owns PSA Airlines, Envoy Air and Piedmont Airlines. Still, fewer competitors may not be a boon for these companies, which are more under the yoke of the majors than ever before. Economists have long found that market power tends to reside in the party that controls capital expenditure and, over the past decade, the big airlines have increasingly taken ownership of small-jet fleets-which they then lease to their regional partners. Regional airlines' investment case is to generate a steady income. They achieve this by selling their seat capacity upfront to the major airlines and thus unloading onto them uncertainty about ticket demand. But becoming mere lease operators also means that the costs of any disruption hit them first. Mesa's shares plunged in August because its earnings were hit by a fueling truck damaging one of its aircraft in Dallas-among other complications it had no control over. Indeed, it is the U.S. legacy airlines that are pushing regional consolidation as part of their clever network redesign, which has involved shifting more passengers to their preferred hubs at the expense of medium-size airports. A 2012 renegotiation with unions allowed them to use more of the larger 76-seat jets to fly longer distances, while carrying fewer people overall. This fits their network strategy better, and allows them to refit these planes with premium cabins-the big moneymaker. But it may end up meaning less revenue for regional carriers. United Airlines is now renegotiating the scope clauses again. Since the traditional 50- seat planes are getting older and there is no direct replacement, the majors may have leverage to push for larger planes-eventually maybe even 90 seaters. Both SkyWest's and Mesa's operating profit margins now surpass those of all major U.S. airlines, making the latter's shares look particularly cheap. Mesa stock trades at 4.3 times earnings, less than half the average of the industry. But the catch is that big airlines may get to those margins before investors do. https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-secret-life-of-regional-airlines-11568286367 Back to Top Airbus wants to know everything passengers do on an airplane - including how often they use the bathroom * Aircraft manufacturer Airbus began test flights of its connected aircraft in August and will continue until the end of the year. * The plane includes sensors throughout the cabin, including on lavatory door latches, overhead bins and seats. * The data will be used to help passengers avoid crowded lavatories and allow airlines to more smartly cater for flights, the company says. An Airbus A350XWB test plane at Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport. LOS ANGELES - Airbus wants to know everything passengers are consuming on board - from coffee to movies, even toilet paper. The European manufacturer and Boeing's chief rival, last month began flying one of its A350-900 wide-body aircraft to test what its executives think is the cabin of the future: full of sensors that collect data on the on-board habits of its passengers. "It's not a concept. It's not a dream," said Airbus' vice president of cabin marketing, Ingo Wuggetzer, at an industry conference in Los Angeles this week. The goal is to gather data on passenger behavior and consumption on board, information that could save airlines money and relieve pain points on board for passengers such as the mad scramble for overhead bin space and lavatory queues. So, how does it work? Airbus has added sensors throughout the aircraft, which it's using as a flying laboratory that would collect data about passengers' use of certain parts of the plane and items on board. The information collected from the so-called Flight Lab is shared with both cabin crew, to address with supplies on board, and with the airlines tasked with ordering them. For example, Airbus is planning to track how many times the lavatory latch is opened and closed so the airline and cabin crews know how often the bathrooms are being used, and have a better idea when to restock items, such as toilet paper or soap. That will also give airlines a better sense of how many lavatories they need on board, Wuggetzer said. The manufacturer also wants to track things like how many times seats are reclined, he said, to give airlines a better sense of when they need maintenance so airlines aren't suddenly left with a nonworking seat, forcing them to lose revenue. The data is gathered from the sensors through an onboard Wi-Fi system, and then shared with flight crews. The information will be shared with airlines once the plane lands. Airbus is also planning to add small cameras on board to monitor how many people are waiting for the bathrooms, and then let travelers know the approximate wait times or which one they should use. To minimize privacy concerns, Wuggetzer said passengers' faces will be blurred out. That also goes for food purchases and orders on board, so airlines don't over- or under- order items. The International Air Transport Association, an industry trade group that represents most of the world's airlines, estimated that carriers generated 5.7 million metric tons of cabin waste in 2017 and said due to growing numbers of passengers on board this could double by 2027. Don't expect these features to show up on your next flight in the very near future. Wuggetzer said commercial airlines are yet to test them out and it's not clear whether these carriers are willing to shell out more for the features. The tests on the A350 are scheduled to continue through the end of the year. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/11/airbus-wants-to-know-everything-passengers-do- on-an-airplane.html Back to Top Electric Aircraft - A new era for aviation? Throughout the ages humans have dreamed of flying. With the advent of the age of flight that dream became a reality as developments in aircraft technology meant that air travel was more accessible to, and affordable for, the general public. However, as time has passed, the world has become increasingly aware of the impact that its thirst for air travel is having on the environment. This awareness, combined with the emergence of movements such as "flight shaming", has increased pressure on the aviation industry to reimagine the way we fly. This reimagining has propelled advances in alternative fuel technology and invited us all to consider how the risks and rewards of developing such technologies will be allocated between various stakeholders. The need for change As public awareness about climate change has increased so too has pressure on the aviation industry to cut its environmental footprint. The European Commission, as part of its Flightpath 2050 plan, wants carbon dioxide emissions reduced by 60%, nitrogen oxide emissions reduced by 90%, and noise pollution reduced by 75%. The European Aviation Safety Agency has announced that it will start categorising aircraft based on their carbon dioxide emissions, and the UK has committed to a goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2050. While the impact of civil aviation on the environment cannot be ignored, equally the contribution that the aviation industry makes to the global economy must also be acknowledged. The aviation industry is a significant contributor to the global economy and plays an important role in facilitating global commerce. In addition the sector arguably fulfils a wider role in society, connecting families and communities and in particular guaranteeing those in remote places access to essential supplies and health care. Given the integral role that aviation plays in global activity it is clear that any solution will need to involve not a curtailing of aviation activity, but rather a reimagining of the way it is executed. Inevitably any such reimagining will involve finding a viable alternative to conventional fuel technologies as a means of powering aircraft. Greener Alternatives The two alternatives to conventional fuel sources most commonly discussed are biofuels and electric and/or electric hybrid aircraft. Biofuels Aviation biofuel is a sustainable fuel made from plants, waste or algae. The advantage of aviation biofuels is that they can be used with existing aircraft without modification. They do not provide a complete solution as successful flights using biofuels to date have almost all involved a blend of conventional fuel and biofuel. They do however go some way to providing a significant reduction of carbon emissions. Currently biofuels remain more expensive than jet fuel to produce and critics argue that plant based fuels require too much land, which would otherwise be used for food production, to provide a sustainable alternative. Recent developments in technologies used to convert waste to fuel may provide the best hope for biofuels however a question mark remains over whether sufficient quantities can be produced to provide the reduction in carbon emissions needed. Electric and Electric-Hybrid Aircraft The use of electric aircraft is regarded by many in the industry as being the only sustainable long term alternative to the current generation of aircraft. Not only would the use of such aircraft have a significant impact on carbon emissions, critically for an industry that is particularly sensitive to costs, it could also significantly reduce the cost of flying. Not only is the cost of electricity typically less than conventional fuel but it is believed that electric motors will be simpler (and therefore cheaper) to maintain. Electric aircraft also have the advantage of being much quieter than their conventional fuel counterparts, leading to less noise pollution. They climb more steeply and need less of a runway. All of these factors could prove a boon for those airport operators who are trying to balance the needs of inhabitants in congested cities with the continuing increase in the demand for air travel. Developments in electric and electric-hybrid aircraft are however being hampered by the pace of development in battery and fuel cell technology. While electric aircraft may provide the answer for short to medium haul journeys, until sufficient step changes are made in the development of lighter, smaller and safer batteries and fuel cells, electric flight for long haul travel will remain an aspiration rather than a reality. Risk allocation - who pays? While these developments are a necessary part of the evolution of the aviation industry they do come at a cost. Given the number of stakeholders with a vested interest in a sustainable aviation industry, who should pay for the development of these new technologies and who should bear the risk of introducing these new and emerging technologies into the market? Traditionally new aviation technologies have been developed by the engine and airframe manufacturers often with significant governmental support. While the manufacturers have borne the cost of research and development, operators have also shared the financial burden of delays and groundings when the entry into service of new products has not run to plan. The recent difficulties encountered by certain airframe and engine manufacturers have highlighted the detrimental impact that a problematic entry into service can have on both OEM and airlines' balance sheets. As we look ahead to new aircraft technologies being introduced, operators, airport authorities and manufacturers will need to agree a framework for agreeing how these risks will be allocated and who will take responsibility for ensuring that the infrastructure necessary for a successful entry into service (whether that be physical charging stations at airports, pilot training, spare part availability or maintenance provision) is in place. Along with the reimagining of the aircraft itself this may well involve a reimagining of the purchase and support agreements that accompany the entry into service of such aircraft. With reportedly over 170 projects worldwide currently focussing on the development of electric aircraft it will be interesting to see how the race to the finish evolves. Will more than one project have sufficient momentum to get the numbers to make the production of its product viable? Will traditional players retain their dominance or will we see a more diverse range of players in the market? If the face of the market does change will the necessary infrastructure be there to support a varied range of aircraft or will the success of any new entrants be dependent on the support of the airport operators? These are questions that not only manufacturers, leasing companies and operators will need to grapple with - these questions are also relevant to those financing parties who are factoring the residual value of the aircraft into their decision making process. New entrants into the market will need to convince these interested parties not only of the integrity of their product, but also that the aircraft will hold its value over the longer term and will not be affected by new technologies or insufficient buy-in from the industry. Notable Projects and Collaborations Interestingly, although there are a number of privately backed initiatives, a common feature of current projects is that they are often a result of collaborations between manufacturers, airlines and public bodies. This perhaps rightly mirrors the make-up of the stakeholders who will benefit from the development of clean, low cost fuel alternatives. The following is a snapshot of some of the more prominent projects and/or the projects which reflect the collaboration occurring in the industry. Electric Aircraft At the Paris Air Show in June this year, a prototype of the world's first commercial all- electric passenger aircraft was unveiled: 'Alice', created by Israeli firm Eviation. Alice is expected to enter into service in 2022 with the capacity to carry nine passengers for 650 miles (1,040 kilometres) at 10,000 feet (3,000 metres) at 276 mph (440 km/h). Despite being only at the prototype stage, there have been early expressions of interest in Alice. US regional airline Cape Air has already agreed to expand its 90-strong fleet by buying a "double-digit" number of the aircraft. Similarly, Wright Electric, a US firm which has already built a two-seat battery-powered plane, is planning to develop a prototype fully electric aircraft, backed by EasyJet. EasyJet plans to use such aircraft to fly passengers on its short-haul routes, possibly within 10 years - a strong indication of support for fully electric aircraft. Electric-hybrid aircraft Rolls-Royce, Airbus and Siemens are collaborating on the E-Fan X programme, which is envisaged will create an electric-hybrid aircraft capable of covering medium-range flights and be set to fly in 2021. Such an aircraft would utilise a combination of conventional and electric power, which would substantially reduce carbon dioxide emissions by allowing the electrical component to be switched on at take-off and landing, with the remainder of the journey powered by conventional fuel. Other manufacturers, including United Technologies (which includes Pratt & Whitney in its portfolio) and Zunum Aero (backed by Boeing and Jet Blue), are also working on similar electric-hybrid projects. It is clear that developing electric-hybrid aircraft has sparked significant interest amongst many manufacturers. Some commentators have in fact argued that the development of electric-hybrid aircraft is a necessary stepping stone to developing an electric aircraft that can service long-haul flights. Biofuels In August 2019 British Airways, Shell and Velocys announced that they had partnered to submit a proposal to build Europe's first commercial waste to jet fuel plant. It is intended that British Airways will purchase the fuel produced to assist in the reduction of its own emissions. Virgin Atlantic and Boeing have also partnered with Lanza Tech in the development of sustainable fuel made by recycling waste carbon gases. The fuel was used for the first time for a commercial flight in October 2018. More recently Lanza Tech has announced its intention to work with Tata Port Talbot Steelworks and the Neath Port Talbot Council to generate jet fuel from waste gases. Research In August 2019 Widerĝe and Rolls Royce announced a joint research project supported by Innovation Norway. The aim of the programme is to develop an electrical aircraft concept, not only to fulfil the Norwegian ambition of zero-emissions by 2030, but also to replace Widerĝe's legacy fleet of regional aircraft world-wide. Future It is evident that we are on the cusp of a new age of aviation - one that is likely to be dominated by electric aircraft. Although critics may cite the lack of a capability to make long-haul commercial flights as being a barrier to any meaningful level of success, it is worth noting that two billion air tickets are sold each year for flights of fewer than 500 miles. EasyJet has announced that it will start using electric aircraft in its regular services by 2027, most likely on short-haul flights such as London to Amsterdam - Europe's second busiest route. Norway and Sweden have indicated that they intend to make short-haul flights in their airspace electric by 2040. In the near future at least, electric aircraft may not be a total game-changer - but there is certainly the potential to substantially change the face of short and medium-haul aviation within the next two decades. https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/electric-aircraft-a-new-era-for-aviation-84356/ Back to Top Boeing: New 777X Issues Won't Impact Test Schedule Boeing (BA) stock closed 3% higher yesterday after the company said its latest 777X issues wouldn't impact its test schedule. Reuters reported yesterday that Boeing revealed that the rear part of the 777X's fuselage depressurized during a test last Friday. Reuters reports the test involved "bending the wings of the airplane to a level far beyond anything expected in commercial service." Due to depressurization, one of the doors came off the plane. However, Boeing said it doesn't expect the issue to slow the 777X program. In its report, Reuters points out that the company also faced problems with the aft fuselage during its 787 Dreamliner test. "The planemaker found that incorrect shimming was performed on the support structure on the aft fuselage," Reuters reports. Boeing 777X program has faced multiple delays The 777X program, one of Boeing's most ambitious, was initiated in late 2013. The 777X series aircraft believed to be the world's longest commercial jets, with a seating capacity between 400 and 425 passengers. The ultra-long-range wide-body twin-aisle Boeing 777X series comprises two models: the 777-8 and the 777-9. Initially, Boeing's 777X launch was scheduled for 2018. However, the program faced multiple delays, mainly due to operational problems with the jets' General Electric (GE) GE9X engines. The company first postponed the launch to early 2019, and then July 2019. After missing these deadlines, Boeing now expects to launch the aircraft in early 2020. Thanks to its fuel efficiency and attractive features, the 777X series has garnered 344 orders from nine customers. Emirates Airlines, the largest customer, has placed 150 orders. Other buyers include Lufthansa, Qatar Airways, Singapore Airlines, and Etihad Airways. Delaying the 777X launch could hamper these airlines' plans and cost them billions in lost revenue. Furthermore, they could turn to Boeing rivals, such as Airbus. Growing troubles for Boeing The 777X issues add to Boeing's misery. The aircraft maker is already facing problems with its 737 MAX planes, which have been under a global flying ban since mid-March after two fatal crashes. The grounding is costing the company billions of dollars in the form of compensation to MAX customers and lower output. On August 20, Reuters estimated the cost of the MAX fiasco had crossed $8 billion for Boeing. Boeing stock has underperformed the iShares US Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) this year. Its stock has returned 14.6% year-to-date, while ITA has risen 28.9%. https://marketrealist.com/2019/09/boeing-new-777x-issues-wont-impact-test- schedule/?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=feed&yptr=yahoo Back to Top Boeing Chief Sees US-China Trade War As Sales Risk For Big Jets Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) Chairman and CEO Dennis Muilenburg on Wednesday expressed confidence the company would quickly overcome recent troubles with its new 737 MAX and 777X airplanes, but worried escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China could undercut future sales of 767, 777 and 787 aircraft in its largest market. "The lack of a trade deal does add risk to our widebody" projections, Muilenburg said Sept. 11 at a Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) investment conference in California. Chinese airlines will need about 7,700 airplanes over the next 20 years and the aerospace manufacturer expects them to make significant orders for large passenger aircraft. China has bought 194 of the two aircraft and has 17 more unfilled orders, according to data on Boeing's website, that could be threatened by higher tariffs. Chinese retaliation against U.S. tariffs, which range from 15% to 25% and will increase to 30% by December, are definitely a threat to future orders. "We have reserved slots in our widebody production line for the 777 and 787 for Chinese orders. So, there is a dependence on Chinese orders ultimately coming through," Muilenburg said. Widebody production requires longer lead times and there is less flexibility to trade production slots because they are tailored to customize aircraft for each airline, he added. More immediately, the timing of 787 deliveries could be pushed back slightly as Boeing's plant in North Charleston, SC, recovers from Hurricane Dorian last week, Muilenburg said. MAX and 777 Boeing's top priority right now is getting regulatory clearance for the 737 MAX to fly again after its March grounding by aviation authorities because of automated anti-stall software that contributed to two fatal crashes. The no-fly order is a major reason why Boeing reported this week only 18 commercial aircraft deliveries in August and 276 for the first eight months, down from 481 for the same period last year. Muilenburg reiterated that Boeing expects the plane to return to service early in the fourth quarter, but said there could be a phased ungrounding across nations because regulators around the world have different concerns. Once Boeing gets the green light, it will take several weeks to get idled planes serviced and into airlines' regular schedules. Muilenberg said Boeing has deployed teams to each customer to prepare planes that were parked and then carefully sequence them back into service, as airlines have asked. About 380 planes were placed out of service in the spring. Boeing continued to produce 42 MAX planes per month and place them in storage. With a backlog of 4,400 orders, the company hopes to gradually ramp up production next year to 57 planes per month. If the grounding isn't lifted soon, suppliers can't keep pace with production or customers can't accept planes fast enough, it might be more efficient to temporarily halt production until all parties can catch up, but that remains an unlikely scenario, the CEO said. "Once we get the MAX flying again safely, the long-term market remains very solid," he said, noting the forecast for 32,000 narrow-body planes over the next 20 years. As for the 777X, the fuel-sipping upgrade for the current 777 line, Muilenburg downplayed the importance of a structural failure last week during static ground testing, saying the plane was being tested at forces beyond anything that would happen during flight operations. "There's nothing there that we think is going to significantly impact the aircraft design or the flight test schedule," he said. The first flight, which was pushed back because of troubles discovered with new engines from GE, should take place in the first quarter of 2020 and deliveries could begin later in the year, Muilenburg said. Solid sales of the 777 freighter are serving as a bridge for the production transition from the 777 to the 777X and adding schedule flexibility, he added. https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/boeing-chief-sees-us-china-210830412.html Back to Top Future Moonwalkers Need Geology Training, Apollo 17's Harrison Schmitt Says We want to maximize the science return of crewed lunar exploration. Apollo 17 astronaut Harrison Schmitt collects samples during an excursion made on Dec. 11, 1972.Apollo 17 astronaut Harrison Schmitt collects samples during an excursion made on Dec. 11, 1972.(Image: İ Eugene A. Cernan, Apollo 17 commander/NASA) The only geologist ever to set foot on the moon thinks future lunar explorers should be a little more like him. NASA and other space agencies should make sure that astronauts headed to the lunar surface get extensive training in field geology, Apollo 17 moonwalker Harrison "Jack" Schmitt and Arizona State University researcher Kip Hodges wrote in an editorial published today (Sept. 10) in the journal Science Advances. "There are no plate tectonics on the moon and none of the erosional effects of wind, water and flowing ice that drive most of the surface evolution of Earth," the duo wrote in the piece, whose lead author is Hodges. "As a consequence, the moon represents an incredible archive of the early history of the inner solar system, a billion-year period that included the stabilization of Earth into a world capable of sustaining life," they added. "We may never fully understand the evolution of environmental conditions in the inner solar system that eventually made the origin of life on Earth possible without a more comprehensive understanding of the deep history of our nearest neighbor." Gaining that understanding will require more than merely collecting lunar samples and bringing them back to Earth, wrote Hodges and Schmitt, who are based at Arizona State University and the University of Wisconsin, respectively. Astronauts will also need to read the geology of the sample-collection site, so that data gleaned from the samples can be put in the proper context, they said. And this will require considerable training, given the particular challenges imposed by the lunar environment. "No part of the ancient lunar surface is truly pristine; observable geologic relationships are complicated by billions of years of space weathering, the combined effects of cosmic ray, solar wind and meteorite bombardment," Hodges and Schmitt wrote. "The last of these is especially problematic, because meteorite impacts result in ballistic redistribution of material over great distances." The pair recommend that space agencies invest more time and money in devising innovative geology-training regimens for astronauts that take into account emerging new technologies, such as augmented reality. And this work should begin soon, Hodges and Schmitt said. After all, NASA aims to send two astronauts to the moon's south pole by 2024, as part of a new program called Artemis. If all goes according to plan, Artemis will help establish a sustainable, long- term human presence on and around the moon by 2028. This effort will inform humanity's next giant leap - the crewed exploration of Mars, which NASA aims to achieve in the 2030s. "With the next opportunities for lunar field science likely to be less than a decade away, the time is right for space agencies to support the establishment of multiple task forces - each including a broad spectrum of field scientists from academia, as well as the agencies themselves - to design a range of novel approaches to planetary field geology and to conduct extensive comparative experiments at complex terrestrial sites before incorporating any of them in mission planning and mission-specific training," they wrote. "Otherwise, we will have squandered an unparalleled opportunity to improve the geoscience we do on the moon and - eventually - on Mars." Hodges and Schmitt also recommend including at least one "classically trained field geologist" - someone like Schmitt, who received a Ph.D. in geology from Harvard University in 1964 - on each crewed mission. Doing so would maximize the scientific yield, they wrote. https://www.space.com/nasa-geologists-on-the-moon-harrison-schmitt.html Back to Top Aviation Cybersecurity Survey Like many industries, the aviation industry is going through a technology transformation that stretches from satellites to aircraft to airports and supply chain and more. But with this transformation and increased digitisation and connectivity and across the aviation industry, the resilience and security of such systems becomes critically important. Adversaries have always seen the aviation sector as a key target; as it increasingly digitizes, understanding what this means for managing cybersecurity risk is of key importance. As a result, there is a great deal of work focusing on aviation cybersecurity globally, from the proposed ICAO Aviation Cybersecurity Strategy to regional and industry initiatives. But with such a complex and varied sector, it can be challenging to really hear and understand the different perspectives and concerns on the topic of aviation cyber security; ultimately, the more we understand the nature of the aviation cybersecurity challenge, the better we can develop strategies at all levels to protect ourselves and move forwards. To help understand the different perspectives on aviation cybersecurity, to help the entire sector understand the nature of the challenge; the first ever survey on aviation cyber security is being conducted by myself and the Atlantic Council Cyber Statecraft Initiative**, with funding by Thales. It is fully anonymous, focusses on learning about different viewpoints and will help us understand the 'now' of aviation cybersecurity; (it does not ask any questions on breaches, etc...!). The aviation industry and the roles and organisations that support it are diverse. For the purposes of this survey, we are defining Aviation Cybersecurity as being cybersecurity that relates to aircraft operations. This includes everything that involves safely and securely getting aircraft and passengers from A-to-B, along with the supply chain of products and services that enables this. We would love everybody in the aviation industry that has an operational role, cybersecurity role, support it with products and services or cybersecurity research to contribute to the survey. With the topic being a broad one, we are keen to get not just the perspectives of those working at the cross-over of aviation and cybersecurity but also anyone contributing to the aviation sector. The survey should take less than 15 minutes and the results of the survey will be free and published openly in mid-November 2019. If you would like, you are also able to request a copy of the final report and details of the launch. If you have any questions you can get in touch via cyber@atlanticcouncil.org The link to the survey is below. Please contribute, support and distribute the survey to your own colleagues, organisations and relevant contacts, the more that contribute to the survey, the better results and understanding we will get. Website; http://aviationcyber.atlanticcouncil.org/the-global-survey-on-aviation-cybersecurity/ Direct Link; https://www.research.net/r/Aviationcybersecurity If you have any questions, then please either get in touch with myself, or the contact details contained on the survey. Pete Cooper *Pete Cooper, MSc, FRAeS is a cyber strategy adviser across multiple sectors but with a focus on aviation. He has advised IATA and ICAO on cybersecurity strategy as well as nation states, and multi-national organisations. He is the author of 'Finding Lift, Minimising drag' which explored the cybersecurity challenges of the aviation sector and is the lead for the Aviation Village at DEF CON where he works to build bridges between the research community and the aviation sector in partnership with US DHS and the USAF. He is also the founder and Director of the Cyber 9/12 UK Strategy Challenge, which finds and develops the next generation of cyber security leaders. Before entering the commercial sector, Pete was a fast jet pilot and instructor in the Royal Air Force and then moved into cyber security where he held the role of strategic cyber operations adviser. He holds a post Grad from Cranfield University and is CEO of Pavisade. **The Atlantic Council Cyber Statecraft Initiative focus is to: 1) examine the nexus of geopolitics and national security with cyberspace; 2) continue to build out the new field of cyber safety in the Internet of Things; and 3) help build the next generation of cybersecurity and cyberspace policy professionals. Throughout all of its work, the Initiative focuses relentlessly on providing practical, innovative, and relevant solutions to the challenges in cyberspace. The Initiative brings together a diverse network of respected experts, bridging the gap between the technical and policy communities. Curt Lewis