Flight Safety Information January 29, 2020 - No. 021 In This Issue Kobe Bryant's body, 8 others recovered from copter that lacked key terrain warning system Incident: Transavia B738 at Porto on Jan 26th 2020, cabin did not pressurize Incident: Delta A359 over Beaufort Sea on Jan 21st 2020, engine trouble Sightseeing Helicopters Need More Safety Regulations, Say Lawmakers Sikorsky installing engine exhaust fix onto production aircraft DFW Airport to screen for coronavirus Alaska Airlines plane struck by lightning before landing in Cordova FAA Administrator Dickson Stresses Safety at Heli-Expo GE profits will suffer when Boeing's 737 MAX returns, analyst explains MITRE - SMS Course - March 2020 ACSF Safety Symposium Kobe Bryant's body, 8 others recovered from copter that lacked key terrain warning system LOS ANGELES - Flying aboard a luxury helicopter with a veteran pilot at the controls, Kobe Bryant and his seven fellow passengers should have had few worries. Their Sikorsky S-76B that would whisk them roughly 90 miles from Orange to Ventura Counties, crossing over the heart of Los Angeles, was "like the Cadillac Escalade" of choppers, recalled Kurt Deetz, a former pilot for Bryant. That model is a sleek craft with dual engines equipped with "all the bells and whistles," Deetz said. Yet it lacked a key safety feature: a terrain awareness and warning system, TAWS, a National Transportation Safety Board official said Tuesday. The NTSB had recommended it be required on large passenger-carrying choppers after a Texas crash in 2004, but that never happened. The remains of the retired NBA superstar, his 13-year-old daughter and the others have now been recovered. Their relatives have been notified, Los Angeles County authorities said. Fans Mourn the loss of NBA legend Kobe Bryant outside of the Staples Center in Los Angeles. NTSB investigators finished collecting evidence Tuesday, hauling wreckage out on helicopters in large white bags to be trucked away from the 600-foot debris field. While the cause is it yet to be determined, the thick, gray clouds that obscured much of the area Sunday are being scrutinized as a possible cause. A body is carried from the scene of a helicopter crash that killed former NBA basketball player Kobe Bryant, his daughter and several others in Calabasas, Calif., Sunday, Jan. 26, 2020. (AP Photo/Kelvin Kuo) "We are not just focusing on weather. We are going to take a broad look at everything around this accident," said Jennifer Homendy, the NTSB board member leading the investigation. Key questions include: * Was pilot Ara Zobayan flying too fast, more than 150 miles per hour, and too low in moments before the crash? * Had he become lost? * Did the helicopter, despite all of the safety features built into it, incur a mechanical failure? Besides TAWS, Bryant's copter also lacked "black boxes" that could aid investigators, Homendy said. NTSB had also previously recommended flight data and cockpit recorders for helicopters, to no avail, Homendy said. Investigators, however, have radar tracking and communications with air traffic controllers. More: Questions emerge about why Kobe Bryant's helicopter was flying in 'very scary conditions' From that, they know that the helicopter was flying using visual reference, tracking along the Southern California's maze of freeways beneath them at about 1,400 feet. Near Burbank, California, about halfway through the journey, Zobayan was granted permission to fly at less than what is considered minimum visibility -- three miles with a ceiling of 1,000 feet. The copter fell below levels needed for radar tracking. It rose to 2,300 feet then began a left descending turn before barreling into a steep mountain slope at a high rate of speed, impacting intact with such force that it left a crater and scattered wreckage over a wide area. The copter came to rest 1,085 feet above sea level, about 30 feet below the crest of the hill where it struck. Kobe Bryant helicopter circled Glendale before deadly crash Deetz had piloted the helicopter from 2015 to mid-2017 along with Zobayan while working with helicopter's owner, Island Express Holding. Though it was old, built in 1991, it held a special place in the fleet. "It's my favorite, it's fast and reliable. It's what I call 'bulletproof,'" Deetz said during a telephone interview on Tuesday. It was Bryant's favorite, too, he said. He had previously flown in a Sikorsky S-76A copter, an earlier version of the chopper that lacked air conditioning and other amenities. When the helicopter company got the newer model, Bryant switched. "The difference was like comparing a Toyota Corolla with something like a Cadillac Escalade," said Deetz. It had AC, it was quiet and big. "He really liked it, and it became his choice." More: Final exchange between air traffic controllers and pilot flying the Kobe Bryant helicopter Deetz said the copter was capable of carrying 10, and was configured for a pilot and co- pilot in the cockpit, partitioned by a curtain from up to eight passengers in the back of the aircraft. The copter typically underwent regular maintenance after every 25 hours of flight time, with other work done as needed. Island Express was "very good about maintenance," and would have a mechanic check the aircraft if a pilot noticed potential safety problems during mandatory pre-flight checks, said Deetz. "It's a very reliable aircraft," he said. "It wasn't a maintenance hog." Developed to haul crews for the offshore oil and industry, the S-76 series became a favorite for executive transport. President Donald Trump's company has owned several. With twin engines that enhance safety, a Los Angeles Times analysis found it has the second-lowest rate of fatal accidents per 100,000 flight hours at 0.22. Only the Airbus H130 topped it. During his NBA career, Bryant typically flew in the copter several times per week for Lakers games and practices, as well as family events, said Deetz. The frequency of his flights dropped after retiring from basketball. Deetz recalled Zobayan as a good pilot and co-worker who "always had a smile on his face and was a funny guy." "We butted heads sometimes like people do with co-workers, but nothing serious," said Deetz. Zobayan lived in Huntington Beach, California, an Orange County city that cultivates its image as "Surf City." Federal Aviation Administration records show Zobayan was rated for helicopter flying both in visual and instrument conditions when he got his commercial pilot license in 2007. He was rated as a helicopter flight and ground instructor for instrument flying. He logged 8,200 hours of flight time, including 1,256 in the S-76, Homendy said. Zobayan found his passion and professional life's calling from a sightseeing flight over the Grand Canyon, according to the company where he trained as a pilot. He came to Group 3 Aviation at the Van Nuys Airport in California after that 1998 experience, company owners Peter and Claudia Lowry wrote in a Facebook posting. He always "remained cool, calm and collected," a grieving friend, Jared Yochim, recalled in a posting on Facebook. "Ara was an incredible pilot, instructor pilot, charter pilot and truly a great man. He was not your typical egotistical helicopter pilot like most of us honestly are." Plus, he was "always good for a laugh." But even good pilots can make mistakes, though it is still to early to know if Zobayan did. Zoey Tur, a veteran news helicopter pilot with more than 10,000 hours of flying time, said pilots of corporate helicopters, often seated directly with passengers, may be hesitant to admit they are lost or headed into a dicey situation. They may fear a celebrity passenger will ask not to fly with them again or a FAA penalty. "You have to be strong enough to tell the VIP on board 'I can't do it,'" she said. "If you get caught in weather conditions, it's maybe a little bit of a confession." Tur believes Zobayan appears to have lost his way in the fog and was flying too fast for the conditions. Absent a mechanical issue, "this is clear pilot error," she said. Zobayan could have asked to convert from flying visually to proceeding only on instruments. Air traffic controllers could have directed the helicopter to the closest airport. He could have set down in a vacant field, even if it meant facing FAA penalties, and called limos for his passengers. And even if he hadn't of those actions, he could have slowed as fog became a bigger issue, Tur said. "The pilot was lost in the fog and instead of slowing down, he, for some reason, accelerated," Tur said. The NTSB said a preliminary cause of the crash will take time. For now, those who knew Zobayan, Bryant and the other passengers can only grieve. Deetz, who last flew Bryant in July 2017, said when he learned of the crash Sunday, including that the helicopter involved had the tail number N72EX, he said his first thought was a hope that Bryant was not on board. "But then I found out what happened," said Deetz. "It was surreal. I knew Ara. I knew Kobe, and I had flown his family. And now they're gone. https://www.yahoo.com/news/kobe-bryants-ex-pilot-helicopter-215610208.html Back to Top Incident: Transavia B738 at Porto on Jan 26th 2020, cabin did not pressurize A Transavia Boeing 737-800, registration F-GZHZ performing flight TO-3409 from Porto (Portugal) to Paris Orly (France), was climbing out of Porto when the crew stopped the climb at FL060 due to problems with the cabin pressurization and returned to Porto for a safe landing about 18 minutes after departure. The aircraft remained on the ground for about 80 minutes, then departed again and reached Orly with a delay of 2.5 hours. A passenger reported soon after departure the crew announced they were returning to Porto due to a problem with the cabin pressure. The aircraft landed without further incident, maintenance boarded the aircraft and appeared to identify a door that had not been properly closed. The aircraft departed again and reached Orly. http://avherald.com/h?article=4d291734&opt=0 Back to Top Incident: Delta A359 over Beaufort Sea on Jan 21st 2020, engine trouble A Delta Airlines Airbus A350-900, registration N508DN performing flight DL-159 from Detroit,MI (USA) to Seoul (South Korea) with 189 people on board, was enroute at FL380 over the Beaufort Sea, when the crew received abnormal indications for one of the engines (Trent XWB) and drifted the aircraft down to FL220. The aircraft diverted to Fairbanks,AK (USA) where the aircraft landed safely on runway 20R about two hours later, vacated the runway and stopped for an inspection by emergency services. Passengers reported the crew told them they were diverting to Fairbanks due to engine issues. Local emergency services were dispatched to Fairbanks Airport with the information the right hand engine of the aircraft had been shut down. A replacement Airbus A350-900 registration N503DN was dispatched from Detroit to Fairbanks, departed for the continuation flight DL-159A about one hour ago and is estimated to reach Seoul with a delay of 21 hours. The occurrence aircraft remained on the ground in Fairbanks for about 27 hours, then positioned to Minneapolis,MN (USA) and returned to service about 9 hours after landing in Minneapolis. On Jan 28th 2020 the Canadian TSB reported the right hand engine surged which led to a roll back and subsequent shut down. https://flightaware.com/live/flight/DAL159/history/20200121/1727Z/KDTW/RKSI http://avherald.com/h?article=4d24da4d&opt=0 Back to Top Sightseeing Helicopters Need More Safety Regulations, Say Lawmakers A growing number of sightseeing aircraft crashed last year in Hawaii and Alaska. Getting a birds-eye view of Hawaii's volcanic craters, stunning waterfalls, and breathtaking canyons-as offered by the area's many helicopter tours-is easily the highlight of any trip to the Aloha state. And as the islands' tourism numbers have steadily increased, so has the popularity of their air sightseeing tours. But with the number of helicopter tours rising, the amount of fatal crashes on tour aircraft in the state has also increased, leading lawmakers to call for stricter safety oversight of helicopters and other small charter planes. In 2019 there were three such crashes in Hawaii that killed a total of 21 people-most recently on December 26 when a sightseeing helicopter went down near Kauai's Na Pali Coast, killing all seven people on board. There were no fatal tour crashes in Hawaii in 2018, according to National Transportation Safety Board records. "The rapidly mounting loss of life and ground risks from Hawai'i air tour helicopter/small aircraft crashes should be tragedy enough and spark unanimous concern for the basic safety of these operations," congressman Ed Case said in a statement on January 15. Case has introduced the Safe and Quiet Skies Act, which would prohibit air operators around the country from offering flight tours over protected areas, including national parks. This move would greatly impact the popular and lucrative helicopter tourism business in Hawaii. It also forbids pilots from acting as tour guides, among other changes. Case also noted in the statement that there have been "54 ... tour helicopter/small aircraft accidents across the country in just the past five years, of which fully nine (17 percent of all accidents nationally) occurred in Hawai'i." The trend is "worrisome," says Paul Cline, assistant professor of aviation at the City University of New York. Pilot training requirements, he says, can be more lax for tour pilots than those at the helm of traditional airline carriers. "[Tour] pilots can range from several hundred hours experience to seasoned pilots with thousands of hours," he says. "Many tour pilots are 'building time,' earning the required number of hours to get a job with an airline or large operator with more opportunities and better pay and working conditions. This is a huge problem because your best people are always leaving. Additionally, their training opportunities are also extremely limited." Another factor could be the very specific way that pilots fly tour flights. There are two main ways for a pilot to operate a helicopter. The first is based on the readings of flight instruments in the cockpit-called instrument flight rules-which allows a pilot to fly in low-visibility weather or at night. The second is based on visual cues on the ground, called visual flight rules only. Depending on visual cues can mean trouble if the helicopter finds itself in low visibility conditions, according to Cline. In that situation, it's common that "the pilot inadvertently flies into bad weather, becomes spatially disoriented, and crashes," he says. Flying only with visual cues-a common practice among air tour operators-can be dangerous in an area known for its quick-changing weather conditions. At least one of the Hawaii helicopter crashes occurred on a low visibility day, according to the preliminary report from the National Transportation Safety Board. Air tour crashes aren't unique to Hawaii, however. Similar incidents also spiked last year in Alaska with fatal crashes involving at least four float planes, a type of sightseeing aircraft popular in the state. (Two sightseeing planes carrying tourists collided in mid-air on May 13. The other float planes were operating charter flights and also crashed in May.) The NTSB's initial crash report says that just before the two sightseeing planes collided, one of the pilots was maneuvering the plane to show passengers a closer view of a waterfall. (Keep in mind that there are more than 300 of these type of air carriers in Alaska, according to the most recent government data.) In the wake of these growing incidents, the NTSB has called for more safety regulations among these type of small tour aircraft, whose collective regulatory term is Part 135 planes and includes helicopters, float planes, and other small on-demand aircraft. "Each crash underscores the urgency of improving the safety of charter flights by implementing existing NTSB safety recommendations," NTSB Chairman Robert Sumwalt said in a statement after the May 2019 crashes in Alaska. "A customer who pays for a ticket should trust that the operator is using the industry's best practices when it comes to safety." But while the NTSB can investigate crashes and recommend safety changes, it's not a regulatory body and it can't enforce new requirements. That responsibility falls to Congress or the Federal Aviation Administration. Filling the void are industry groups, such as the Air Charter Safety Foundation, which advise Part 135 aircraft operators on how to improve their safety measures. In a letter of response to the NTSB's Most Wanted requirements, ACSF President Bryan Burns recommended that companies with Part 135 planes "discuss the Most Wanted list recommendations with their executive teams," "implement a safety management system," and "consider implementing flight data monitoring" among other suggestions. Of course, there are a multitude of air tour companies that adhere to these and other stringent safety requirements. Cline says that rather than avoid these type of tours altogether, passengers should do their research on the company's safety skills before booking a tour. "Check them out on the NTSB website, BBB website, the state regulatory agency website," he says. "Additionally, do not fly in bad weather," especially because of the way air tour business models operate, he says. "Many times, if the pilot does not fly they do not get paid. There is an unspoken and unacknowledged pressure to fly when it would have been better to cancel." That skepticism, above all, could be the most important. "Too often the American public assumes a plane is a plane is a plane," Cline says. "Nothing could be further from the truth. If the weather is bad, do not fly" in a helicopter. https://www.cntraveler.com/story/sightseeing-helicopters-need-more-safety- regulations-say-lawmakers Back to Top Sikorsky installing engine exhaust fix onto production aircraft Sikorsky has retrofitted some of the six CH-53K King Stallion test aircraft with a fix for engine exhaust re-ingestion that has delayed development of the heavy-lift helicopter ahead of cutting the tweak into production. Sikorsky is preparing to cut the modification into its active production line in Stratford, Connecticut. U.S. Navy Photo In December, the company announced a fix for the problem of the 53K's three General Electric T-408 engines sucking in their own hot exhaust, which can degrade engine performance and potentially damage the powerplants. Among other issues, the phenomenon has delayed acceptance by the U.S. Marine Corps. Running the fix on the some of the test aircraft, now in initial operational test and evaluation (IOT&E), has validated it, and Sikorsky is preparing to cut the modification into its active production line in Stratford, Connecticut, said Nathalie Previte, vice president of strategy and business development. There are currently two production aircraft on the line in Stratford, Previte said. "The solution has provided the level of confidence to move forward on our test program," Previte said at the 2020 HAI Heli-Expo. "In edition, modifications will be cut into our IOT&E aircraft, so they will be introduced on our production line." Sikorsky, Navy and Marine Corps engineers began tackling the problem in April, and during more than 30 test events whittled a list of 135 possible design solutions to one that was retrofitted onto test aircraft for validation. The test fleet has racked up more than 1,600 flight hours, Previte said. "Because of our early investment we have made with an all-digital design, that investment enables Sikorsky engineers and their team to resolve the exhaust gas re- ingestion situation," Previte said. Sikorsky is on contract for the first 14 King Stallions for the Marine Corps. Deliveries should begin in 2021. Previte said the fix has not affected the planned dates for initial operational capability by 2023. "We are on track to meet the milestone date for the U.S. Marine Corps in terms of IOC and deployment," Previte said. https://www.verticalmag.com/news/sikorsky-installing-engine-exhaust-fix-onto- production-aircraft/ Back to Top DFW Airport to screen for coronavirus The airport is one of 20 across the U.S. that has been chosen by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to screen flights from China. Updated at 1:26 p.m. with information from American Airlines. DFW Airport will begin screening passengers arriving from China for possible symptoms of 2019 novel coronavirus, according to airport officials. The airport is one of 20 across the United States that has been chosen by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to do so. A team from the CDC will be monitoring passengers for any signs of illness and passing out educational materials, according to DFW Airport spokesperson Bill Begley. But, as of now, according to the CDC, 18 of those airports are staffed. Dallas and Boston are not. Begley said the CDC will oversee the monitoring program at DFW "as soon as their team is in place." One flight is scheduled to arrive from Shanghai at 5:15 p.m. at DFW. American Airlines officials said the airline has expanded its travel waiver to give customers flexibility with their travel plans to Beijing and Shanghai. The airline also is allowing flight crews to wear facemasks on flights to the two cities and to Hong Kong even though the CDC has not recommended this. The U.S. has so far had five confirmed cases. All of the people diagnosed had recently traveled to China. Thousands have been sickened by the virus in China, and more than 100 people have died as a result. There were 1,771 new cases confirmed in China just on Monday. https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/local/dfw-airport-now-screening-for- coronavirus/287-864e08bf-81e9-493f-beb6-75eb1af457e2 Back to Top Alaska Airlines plane struck by lightning before landing in Cordova Alaska Airlines Boeing 737 parked at a gate at Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport on April 30, 2019. An Alaska Airlines jetliner flying from Anchorage was struck by lightning Monday evening as it prepared to land in Cordova. The Boeing 737-700, with 60 passengers, landed safely and no one was hurt. Passenger Steve Bambakidis said he heard a large noise and felt the plane shake as it prepared to touch down in Cordova at around 4 p.m. He was traveling from his home in Portland, Oregon, to Cordova, where he works as IT director for the Native Village of Eyak. "The engine exploded, is what it sounded like," he said. "It was hit hard and we saw flames shooting out." Bambakidis said he thought he was going to die. But the plane took the hit and kept flying, landing safely shortly after. The flight was scheduled to pick up additional passengers in Cordova and continue on to Yakutat and Juneau before reaching Seattle. After the lightning strike, the plane was instead taken out of service and flown to Seattle for a mechanical inspection, said Alaska Airlines spokesman Tim Thompson. The lightning did not cause any major damage. Thompson said what Bambakidis called "flames shooting out" was likely static discharge from the plane's wings as the lightning struck. The roughly 30 passengers who had planned to continue to further stops were rescheduled for flights Tuesday, he said. Thompson said it's not entirely uncommon for planes to be struck by lightning. It doesn't put passengers in danger, he said. "The planes are designed to be able to handle lightning," he said. "... It doesn't happen a lot, but it does happen on occasion." Thompson said the planes are built to withstand lightning and other forms of severe weather. He said he isn't aware of any crashes caused by lightning. Thompson said in the vast majority of cases, the damage is minimal and the plane is generally safe to fly after being struck by lightning. Sometimes the plane ends up with a burn mark along the aircraft's skin, he said. Thompson was unsure if the lightning caused any damage to the plane Monday, but it flew safely to Seattle for inspection. Generally, flights that are struck by lightning also experience some turbulence, but Thompson said passengers usually can't tell if their plane has been struck. There were light snow showers and temperatures in the mid-20s to low 30s throughout most of Monday in Cordova, said National Weather Service meteorologist Bob Clay. Winter lightning is more common along coastal areas because storms generally form over warm bodies of water when cold, unstable air moves overhead, Clay said. As rain or snow showers form, lightning or thunder can occur and the storms can then be pushed onto the coast. Bambakidis said the Monday evening flight from Anchorage to Cordova was relatively choppy, but he wasn't concerned until he saw the lightning strike. He was thankful the plane landed safely, he said. "Everyone on the plane was shook up, but both pilots did a great job," Bambakidis said. https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/aviation/2020/01/29/alaska-airlines-plane-struck- by-lightning-before-landing-in-cordova/ Back to Top FAA Administrator Dickson Stresses Safety at Heli-Expo Making his first appearance at Heli-Expo as FAA Administrator, Stephen Dickson delivered a safety-focused message to show attendees. Photo: Mariano Rosales His safety theme was cast in sharp relief by the helicopter accident that claimed Kobe Bryant and eight others on the eve of the gathering, "only 50 miles away from the convention center," Dickson said. "Whatever the investigations ultimately determine, all of us in this room know that all too often helicopter accidents turned out to have been preventable." The former airline and fighter pilot admitted he has little background in helicopters. "I'm a student and I'm here to learn from you," he told attendees. "But it's clear to me from a professional perspective that rotary-wing aviation is a central element of our transportation system." Comprising about 6 percent of general aviation aircraft in the U.S., helicopters make a "significant and even disproportionate" impact "when you count the benefits," Dickson said, noting applications include medevac, search-and-rescue, fire-suppression, and air- taxi operations. But traditional views of the industry are outdated, given the rise of drones and the nascent urban mobility industry, he added. Since the FAA established a mandatory registry four years ago, more than 1.5 million drones have been registered-some 400,000 of them for commercial use-and the agency has already approved 27 operators under Part 137 to use drones commercially to perform aerial applications. Three years ago, the FAA "shifted our strategy from writing rules to getting machines in the air and flying, and taking lessons learned from the operations approval process to write better rules," he said, an approach that "can help us ensure innovation can drive forward." The FAA is currently conducting trials for package deliveries by drone with UPS and FedEx, among others. Meanwhile, electric flying taxis are quickly moving "from prototype to testing," Dickson said, and the agency is "currently engaged with the builders of more than 15 electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft projects." Helicopters have a fatal accident rate of about 0.63 per 100,000 hours., EVTOL passengers of tomorrow will expect "the [near-zero] level of safety achieved by the airlines," Dickson said, underscoring safety's critical role in industry growth. As for current issues, Dickson cited the safety of air-tour operations and noise as particular problem areas. "I'm here to tell you this needs to change," he said. "There's a lot of energy in Congress as it relates to safety and noise concerns. If we can't take meaningful action on both of these fronts very soon, I suspect that path forward might be dictated to us." Promising paths for enhancing safety include risk-based decision-making; implementation of safety management systems; sharing of best industry practices; and ensuring operators have clear channels for employees to report safety concerns, without fear of retribution, he said. Dickson also cited FAA helicopter safety initiatives including its Helicopter Safety Team's new "Workshop in a Box" program. "We're serious about getting on top of safety challenges you face in the industry," he concluded. "The FAA is ready to work together with you." https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/business-aviation/2020-01-28/faa- administrator-dickson-stresses-safety-heli-expo Back to Top GE profits will suffer when Boeing's 737 MAX returns, analyst explains General Electric's (GE) stock is capping off a 30% one-year climb as the industrial giant prepares to report earnings Wednesday morning. But the biggest GE bear on the Street says the good times won't last, in part because the return of the Boeing 737 Max could be bad news for the industrials giant. On the surface, it's a head-scratcher. Economists predict the grounding of the Boeing plane in the wake of crashes and a safety review could shave 0.5% from GDP. GE produces all of the engines for the jet in cooperation with Safran of France. So in theory, the return of the 737 Max to production would benefit GE. Stephen Tusa, managing director at JPMorgan, believes that GE sells the 737 Max engines at a loss. The better profit, he explains, is in spare parts. "You have a dynamic where if they are not delivering Maxes, [GE is] actually seeing a higher amount of EBIT margin dollars because they're not delivering loss-leading engines," he said in an interview with Yahoo Finance's On the Move. "What we believe GE has done over the last year, is that they've turned around and repurposed some of that capacity to sell into the spare engine market, and that when you sell a spare it's a lot more profitable. So actually in the near term, the Max coming back in our view will be net negative for them." Tusa has had an "underweight" rating on GE since May 2016, with a brief reprieve Dec. 2018-March 2019, which means his bearish stance predates the 737 Max grounding. Visitors watch General Electric's turbo fan Visitors watch General Electric's turbo fan "the GEnx engine, powering Boeing 787 Dremliner, during the 50th Paris Air Show at Le Bourget airport, north of Paris, Wednesday June 19, 2013. (AP Photo/Remy de la Mauviniere) His thesis goes well beyond GE's exposure to the plane, although aviation is the company's largest source of revenue. Tusa estimates that GE generated $1.5 billion of free cash flow in 2019 - far from enough to justify his peers' price targets for the stock, he said. That figure would need to climb to more like $6 billion to $7 billion by 2021. Right now the average price target is $11.54, according to a Bloomberg survey. Tusa's is $5. Morgan Stanley analyst Joshua Pokrzywinski just upgraded GE on Thursday, citing a "budding turnaround." He's not alone. According to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, there are 11 buys, 10 holds and 4 sells. Analysts predict the company earned 17 cents a share last quarter, as revenue dropped 22% to $25.29 billion. https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/qe-earnings-preview-boeing-737-max- 204059092.html Curt Lewis