Flight Safety Information May 19, 2020 - No. 100 In This Issue Incident: Atlanta Icelandic B744 at Frankfurt on May 15th 2020, rejected takeoff Incident: LATAM B763 at Recife on May 18th 2020, engine vibrations Incident: LATAM A320 at Sao Paulo on May 15th 2020, suspected bird strike Airline Pilot Association: Current COVID-19 guidelines don't make air travel safe Air Safety Institute's Seasons of Safety Webinar Set Soon Plane in CF Snowbird crash is decades old - What do we know about its safety? PIPER FIRST WITH GARMIN AUTOLAND APPROVAL...SYSTEM TAKES OVER FOR INCAPACITATED PILOTS Qantas enforces new coronavirus precautions on flights, but no social distancing How can the global aviation industry chart its way out of COVID-19? UTEP President Heather Wilson appointed to DOT's Women in Aviation Advisory Board United Airlines' new CEO Kirby takes the reins, aiming to 'get through hell as quickly as possible' The Navy's Next Jet Trainer Won't Be Able To Land Or Take Off From An Aircraft Carrier Abu Dhabi's Etihad cuts hundreds of jobs: sources Delta will add flights to keep planes no more than 60% full as demand rises Relativity Space hires SpaceX executive to lead launch vehicle factory development GRADUATE RESEARCH SURVEY Incident: Atlanta Icelandic B744 at Frankfurt on May 15th 2020, rejected takeoff An Air Atlanta Icelandic Boeing 747-400 freighter on behalf of Saudi Arabian Airlines, registration TF-AMN performing flight CC-375/SV-375 from Frankfurt/Main (Germany) to Dubai Al Maktoum (United Arab Emirates), was accelerating for takeoff from Frankfurt's runway 07R when the crew rejected takeoff at high speed (129 knots over ground). The aircraft slowed and stopped on the runway, emergency services responded and cooled the brakes. The aircraft remained on the ground for about 3 hours, then departed and reached Dubai with a delay of about 3 hours. http://avherald.com/h?article=4d77d599&opt=0 Back to Top Incident: LATAM B763 at Recife on May 18th 2020, engine vibrations A LATAM Brasil Boeing 767-300, registration PT-MSO performing flight JJ-4779 from Recife,PE to Sao Paulo,SP (Brazil), was in the initial climb out of Recife's runway 18 when the crew stopped the climb at 6000 feet due to excessive vibrations on the left hand engine (CF6). The aircraft returned to Recife for a safe landing about 25 minutes after departure. A bird strike is being suspected as cause of the engine vibrations. http://avherald.com/h?article=4d77c052&opt=0 Back to Top Incident: LATAM A320 at Sao Paulo on May 15th 2020, suspected bird strike A LATAM Brasil Airbus A320-200, registration PR-MYA performing flight LA-3530 from Sao Paulo Guarulhos,SP to Sao Luiz,MA (Brazil), had departed Guarulhos' runway 09L and had climbed to FL340 and climbed further to FL350 about one hour into the flight. About 80 minutes into the flight the crew was informed a bird strike into the left engine (CFM56) was suspected. The crew reported they had not received any abnormal indications or warnings. In consultation with their dispatch it was decided however to divert the aircraft to Brasilia,DF (Brazil) where the aircraft entered a hold at 7000 feet to burn off fuel for about 30 minutes and subsequently landed safely on runway 11R about 140 minutes after departure. A replacement A320-200 registration PR-MYQ continued the flight and reached Sao Luiz with a delay of 3 hours. The occurrence aircraft is still on the ground in Brasilia about 5 hours after landing. http://avherald.com/h?article=4d7594b1&opt=0 Back to Top Airline Pilot Association: Current COVID-19 guidelines don't make air travel safe Pilots don't believe current practices make flying safe DETROIT - Many people feel air travel isn't safe right now due to the coronavirus (COVID-19), and pilots agree. Officials with the Airline Pilots Association said guidelines and suggestions currently in place are not enough. They believe the Federal Aviation Administration needs to mandate and enforce safety requirements. The airline industry is in crisis, with most planes flying at 10% capacity. Grim projections include 100,000 layoffs in the fall. The solutions are complex, but the problem is simple: Most Americans don't feel flying is safe. Capt. Joe DePete, the president of the Airline Pilots Association, said passengers are the only ones who don't feel safe. He said pilots agree the current protocols aren't enough to protect against the spread of COVID-19. The Centers For Disease Control and Prevention recommends that passengers and crew members wear masks during flights, but flight attendants have been told their role is information, not enforcement, so wearing a mask is optional for them. Another controversial issue is the middle seat. United Airlines officials said they cannot guarantee you will have an empty seat next to you. American Airlines won't assign 50% of main cabin middle seats and will use them only when necessary. Delta has already capped seating at 60% capacity in the main cabin and will guarantee middle seats are empty. DePete said he believes the FAA needs to set the safety rules and enforce them. According to airline industry analysts, if airlines eliminate middle seats as a standard practice going forward, ticket prices will increase by at least 40%. https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2020/05/18/airline-pilot-association-current-covid-19-guidelines-dont-make-air-travel-safe/ Back to Top Air Safety Institute's Seasons of Safety Webinar Set Soon The next Air Safety Institute's webinar in its four-part Seasons of Safety series is scheduled for 8 p.m. EST, Wednesday, May 20. Sponsored by Hartzell Propeller, the next webinar episode, 105 Days of Safe Summer Flying, delves into the challenges of summer flying. AOPA's Air Safety Institute's Manager of Aviation Safety Rob Geske will present three accident cases to help pilots understand the dangers associated with summer flying. During the livestream, the institute's staff will be on hand to answer questions. The first webinar, The Awakening - Coming Out of Hibernation, which aired March 5, generated more than 10,000 views. It covered the keys to regaining pilot proficiency and making the airplane and other equipment is ready for flight. "The AOPA Air Safety Institute's singular focus on general aviation safety and our company passion for flight and continually improving pilot skills were paramount in getting behind this program," said Hartzell Propeller President JJ Frigge. "This series will keep safety and awareness front and center even though some pilot proficiency forums won't be conducted this year at EAA AirVenture Oshkosh due to the pandemic." For more info on the upcoming safety webinar go to https://www.aopa.org/training-and-safety/air-safety-institute. To play the first webinar in the series go to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4EstJP2N9E. https://www.aviationpros.com/education-training/safety-training/press-release/21138616/hartzell-propeller-inc-air-safety-institutes-seasons-of-safety-webinar-set-soon Back to Top Plane in CF Snowbird crash is decades old - What do we know about its safety? As the investigation into the deadly Snowbird plane crash begins, the decades-old jet used by the aerobatic team is under new scrutiny. The CT-114 Tutor jets have been part of the Canadian Forces inventory since 1963 and have been flown by the Snowbirds since 1971. But aviation experts aren't convinced age is a primary factor in the safety of an aircraft. "This is a really well-trodden trail," said Billy Allan, a professor of mechanical and aerospace engineering at the Royal Military College of Canada. "Age is not important really. It's engineering and maintenance. They're designed to last forever and they're designed not to fail. They're well-maintained by a careful and meticulous and methodical approach that, in many other fleets, have been thrown out." Video of Sunday's crash shows two Snowbirds taking off from Kamloops Airport on Sunday. The jets ascend into the sky, but one starts to roll. At least one person appears to eject from the plane before it plunged to the ground. As it disappears behind a cluster of trees, an explosion can be heard. The crash claimed the life of Capt. Jennifer Casey and seriously injured Capt. Richard MacDougall. A team of Canadian military members is now investigating the cause of the crash. A cause has yet to be determined. Despite their age, modifications to the Snowbirds fleet are done "constantly," Allan said, and maintenance is "meticulous" and performed in lockstep with every flight. Because the jets were initially designed to train pilots, their makeup is conventional and conservative, he said, making it ideal for "high-stress, high-speed environments." However, he acknowledged the jets come with safety concerns. The jets were due to retire in 2010, but that deadline was extended to 2020. An internal study by the Defence Department warned against stretching the lifespan, only if absolutely necessary. It insisted that the fleet be replaced "immediately." "With each passing year, the technical, safety and financial risk associated with extended the Tutor into its fifth decade and beyond, will escalate," the review stated in August 2003, as reported by the Globe and Mail. "These risks are significant, however they are not easily quantified." While mechanical errors are not attributed to most of the crashes involving Tutor jets, it's not out of the question, in this case, Allan said. "This is a very dangerous sport. They're flying single-engine jets, low level, and maneuvering as they do, particularly in areas of high density like Kamloops," he said. "If anything goes wrong, it goes wrong really badly with the single-engine jets." There is a mix of causes in fatal accidents in Snowbirds history. In 2008, a Snowbird crash that killed Capt. Bryan Mitchell and a military photographer was determined by investigators to be the fault of the pilot for flying too close to the ground. The safety report stated that Mitchell did not realize that his aircraft had "descended dangerously low", causing the ring wing to clip the ground, tumble and crash. In 2004, a mid-air collision between two Snowbird jets claimed the life of Capt. Miles Selby. A report by the air force's Directorate of Flight Safety, as reported at the time, determined the pilot was too inexperienced and lacked sufficient training to do the complex "co-loop maneuver." However, in 2007, a crash in Montana was blamed on a mechanical issue. Capt. Shawn McCaughey died during an air show practice when his seatbelt came unbuckled as he rolled his Tutor, causing him to fall out of his seat, lose control of the plane and fall out of the sky. The crash in Kamloops was likely a "confluence of events", said Allan, but that doesn't necessarily mean the age of the aircraft is to blame. "New doesn't necessarily mean better or more reliable," he said, "and old does not necessarily mean worse and less reliable, especially when it's old and really well understood." So why not replace the fleet? The Canadian Forces estimated in 2012 that it would cost $755 million to buy a new fleet for the team, according to a report by the National Post. A 2015 estimate pegged the cost between $500 million and $1.5 billion. Ottawa has shown interest in making a change. Options to replace the Tutors were examined over the years, including leasing a new fleet or replacing with an existing inventory, but expenses have posed a consistent obstacle. "I think it's been found unpalatable," said Allan. "One of the plans offered was to park the planes until we have a new aircraft, and that one's not been any more palatable than buying new planes." The extensions continued, despite a 2016 report from the Department of National Defence stating "significant concerns" about the aircraft should it stay in operation after 2020. As time goes on, the cost of maintenance and modification rise, said Michael Hicks, the president of the Canadian Aviation College, as do replacement costs. He believes the nearly 60-year-old jet can never be as safe as a modern aircraft, "no matter how well it is maintained." "The safety systems were designed in the 50s, every year that goes by the parts needed to maintain them become harder to find, raising their cost," he told Global News. "It costs millions per year to maintain these. And they must be maintained in accordance with their maintenance schedule that's published by the manufacturer and approved by the government." However, Hick said the age of the aircraft is unlikely to hurt the crash investigation. If anything, the simpler system might make it easier. Allan added that while there are no voice recorders on the jets, a clearer picture will be painted by the surviving pilot. "There are not many things that go wrong, they know what they are. ... Stuff happens when you're doing high risk, impressive flying," said Allan. "But these people know exactly what they're doing. You can bet the maintainers are going to be sitting on pins and needles right now waiting to find out what happened because they're going to want to know if they could've done anything." https://globalnews.ca/news/6955731/cf-snowbirds-crash-plane-safety/ Back to Top PIPER FIRST WITH GARMIN AUTOLAND APPROVAL SYSTEM TAKES OVER FOR INCAPACITATED PILOTS The FAA on May 15 handed Piper officials the much-anticipated certification papers for the revolutionary Garmin Autoland system. The approval makes the Piper M600/SLS the first airplane ever certified with a system that will land the airplane on its own should the pilot become incapacitated. Garmin International announced FAA certification of its Autoland system as part of the Garmin G3000 flight deck in the Piper M600. Photo by Chris Rose. The milestone caps a yearslong effort by Garmin and several aircraft manufacturers to bring the sophisticated system to market. Piper brands it the HALO safety system. "This is the first aircraft to be certified with one of the most significant advancements in general aviation history. As a company that has always held safety at the forefront of our culture, we are proud to be first to market with Autoland," said Piper President and CEO Simon Caldecott. "Additionally, it is our great honor to pave the way for others to follow with this new technology." AOPA received a demonstration of the system nearly a year ago. But even then Garmin had been working on it since 2011, bringing together a series of previously introduced safety technologies and capping them off with an overlying decision-making system to find a suitable runway for landing the aircraft if a pilot doesn't interact with the Garmin G3000 panel for a period of time, or if someone on board pushes an Autoland button. "The FAA certification of Autoland is a day of celebration for the entire aviation industry as we redefine the expectations of not only the pilot, but more importantly the passenger, and what should be standard equipment on general aviation aircraft," said Phil Straub, Garmin executive vice president and managing director of aviation. "Our congratulations to Piper for certifying this safety enhancing technology on the M600 and delivering one of the industry's most significant innovations to our respective customers." Once activated, Autoland uses the G3000's on-board navigation and weather information to find the nearest suitable runway with an RNAV approach. The system considers wind, thunderstorms, and other weather considerations as well as runway length appropriate for the particular model of airplane. It then squawks the emergency transponder code, begins broadcasting to air traffic control and nearby pilots, and then using autothrottles descends to the runway, deploying gear and flaps. Once on the runway it brings the airplane to a stop and shuts off the engine. Throughout the automated sequence it also plays videos on the multifunction display to educate any passengers about what is happening, how to prepare for landing, and, ultimately, how to open the door and get out on the runway. The Garmin Autoland system, now approved as part of the G3000 integrated flight deck in the Piper M600, can control and land the aircraft without human input in an emergency situation. Photo by Chris Rose. The system is standard on all 2020 M600/SLS models, which began deliveries in the fourth quarter of 2019. Those airplanes were all provisioned for the HALO system and now only need minimal upgrades to make the system active. For now the autothrottle system on the M600/SLS is active only during the automated landing sequence. However, Piper is near a full certification of the complete autothrottle system, making it available for all phases of flight. Garmin reports that Autoland will be available soon on the Cirrus Vision Jet and Daher TBM 940. Approvals for other models are in development. While the system shows great promise to improve safety, some pilots have expressed skepticism about giving up control of the airplane to an automated system. However, others recognize the technology as a foundation for many advances in aviation-airplanes that will be capable of landing regardless of ceiling and visibility. https://www.aopa.org/news-and-media/all-news/2020/may/18/piper-first-with-garmin-autoland-approval Back to Top Qantas enforces new coronavirus precautions on flights, but no social distancing Not every doctor agrees with Qantas that the risk of infection on a flight is "extremely low" risk. Qantas has unveiled new measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 on its flights - but social distancing is not one of them. "Social distancing on an aircraft isn't practical the way it is on the ground," Qantas medical director Dr Ian Hosegood said. "Given the low transmission risk on board, we don't believe it's necessary in order to be safe." It comes a week after Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce told the ABC that his company was seeking an exemption from social-distancing rules with the Federal Government. The airline will roll out its "Fly Well" safety measures from June 12. Pre-flight safety Passengers will notice some major differences before they board a Qantas or Jetstar plane: • Contactless check-in (via the airline's website or app) and self-serve bag drop are "strongly encouraged" • There will be hand sanitising stations at the departure gates, and more regular cleaning • "Increased physical distancing" at Qantas Lounges (but not on the flight itself) • Two female passengers sitting next to each other on a Qantas flight, wearing masks. • Qantas says face masks are encouraged but not mandatory.(Supplied: Qantas) • On-board precautions • Qantas has also outlined its safety measures, in lieu of social distancing: • It will provide masks to all passengers - wearing one is "not mandatory", but is recommended for "everyone's peace-of-mind" • "Enhanced cleaning" with a focus on seats, seatbelts, overhead lockers, air vents and toilets • Once passengers are seated, they will be asked to "limit movement" around the cabin. • They will also receive sanitising wipes to wipe down seat belts, trays and armrests themselves • The airline will "encourage" passengers to download the Government's COVIDSafe app and "require" them to follow strict hygiene protocols 'Extremely low' risk In a statement, the airline said its air conditioning would get rid of almost all viruses on board. "The air-conditioning systems of all Qantas and Jetstar aircraft are already fitted with hospital-grade HEPA filters, which remove 99.9 per cent of all particles including viruses." It also said the cabin air was refreshed, on average, every five minutes during the flight. Dr Hosegood said there were a number of reasons why the risk of being infected with coronavirus onboard was "extremely low". "That's due to a combination of factors, including the cabin air filtration system, the fact people don't sit face-to-face and the high backs of aircraft seats acting as a physical barrier." Five-minute window of infection The Transport Workers Union said Qantas' new measures were not enough, accusing the airline of "downplaying" the risks. "At least 60 workers across the Qantas Group have been infected with the virus," the TWU said in a statement. "A dossier compiled by TWU safety experts revealed systematic failing in how Qantas dealt with an Adelaide Airport cluster, which saw 34 workers infected and over 750 quarantined." Coronavirus questions answered An illustration of a cell on an orange background with the word 'coronacast' overlayed. Breaking down the latest news and research to understand how the world is living through an epidemic, this is the ABC's Coronacast podcast. Also, not every medical expert agrees with Qantas' characterisation of the risk of infection being "extremely low". "It's hard for an airline to be profitable if social distancing were enforced," said Professor Raina MacIntyre, a virologist at the University of New South Wales. "But being in an aircraft is a high risk ... it's an enclosed space where lots of people congregate for long periods of time. "Also, if a passenger has COVID-19, they may show no symptoms." When asked about Qantas' air-conditioning system, Professor MacIntyre said the use of HEPA filters would help to limit the risk of catching coronavirus. She said the risk of infection also depended on whether Qantas was using "outside" air or "recycled" air - the riskier of the two options. Even refreshing the cabin air every five minutes might not be enough. "Studies of tuberculosis show that if you're sitting a few rows behind or in front of someone, you're at risk," she said. "In the five minutes between air changes, you're still at risk. "I have made a personal decision not to fly unless I'm vaccinated from COVID-19." Across the world, many governments and pharmaceutical companies are spending billions of dollars in a race to develop a coronavirus vaccine, which could be months or years away. Earlier this week, the World Health Organization (WHO) has even warned that COVID-19 may "never go away" and we might have to learn to live with it. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-19/qantas-social-distancing-coronavirus-covid19-measures/12263242 Back to Top How can the global aviation industry chart its way out of COVID-19? The travel and commercial airline industry has suffered considerable damage as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to recently-released figures from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the global aviation industry is set to lose US$252bn in 2020, with many airlines filing for bankruptcy and slashing up to 90 percent of their flight capacity. Linus Bauer is an outstanding City alumnus, Managing Consultant at Bauer Aviation Advisory, and a Visiting Lecturer on the MSc Air Transport Management program. City News caught up with him to ask about his perspectives on the future of commercial aviation. CN: Passengers still have a not unreasonable degree of anxiety about flying, even if they are wearing masks while traveling on airplanes and would have completed pre-boarding temperature checks. What further measures can airlines take to lessen their concerns? LB: Health and safety will become an ever-present factor because fear and trust will be the two emotions at the forefront of people's minds when planning a trip. In the past two weeks we have witnessed new air rage triggers: Airlines breaking their promise to keep middle seats empty; and passengers failing to take precautions by not observing social distancing. Airlines need to be more transparent and confident in communicating social distancing protocol, especially so in the era of social media. Passengers are demanding to be informed through video messaging what airlines are doing to make travel safe for everyone-from preventive measures onboard and special cleaning processes, right through to minute-by-minute changes to flight schedules, etc. Such activities would certainly lessen the fears of health-conscious passengers and those in the 50+ age bracket. When people do not feel that an airline adequately respects their health and safety, they will quickly find one that does! CN: With the ever-deepening crisis in global aviation and major airlines filing for bankruptcy, is government assistance the only option? LB: For a large group of major airlines across the globe, government assistance is the only option for their survival. In Germany for instance, the reinvestment of stabilization funds with special loan schemes from the previous global financial crisis offers the best solution for German stock corporations like flag carrier Lufthansa. CN: With current low oil prices and the correspondingly low demand for travel, will airfares become more affordable for travellers? LB: Due to the fuel hedging activities at the end of 2019, the majority of airlines will, unfortunately, not benefit from the low oil prices at the moment. Airlines have been reporting massive losses in fuel hedging as fuel prices have plunged. The market-to-market losses from surplus hedges also arose because capacity cuts resulting from COVID-19 have meant that the fuel consumption needs of airlines will be lower than previously anticipated in the next fiscal years. Coming over to the demand side, the airline industry will suffer less demand in the next three years. CN: Are there any specific geographical areas or travel markets of the world better prepared to return to normality? LB: Normality is not likely to return before 2023. That said, I believe that countries like Australia and New Zealand have a geographical advantage and have done a great job of cementing links between themselves during this pandemic. A Trans-Tasman travel 'bubble' will be established as soon as it is safe to allow flights between both countries. If it works well, they may consider inviting the Pacific islands and Singapore to join it. This model could prove to be a good example for the rest of the world to kickstart travel between countries on a step-by-step basis. CN: Will the airline industry be changed for the better? Given the role that government and private finance may contribute toward the restructuring of airlines, could COVID-19 force already poorly managed airlines to become more efficient? LB: Every single crisis leads to new opportunities to improve things. What were viewed as the errors of the past can now be rectified. After receiving a wake-up call from this crisis, much more attention will be paid to issues like sustainability and the environment, leading to higher operational efficiency for the future. CN: How will the pandemic affect the pilot training pipeline? LB: Pilots, flight attendants and gate agents are the groups most directly impacted by the sharp drop-off in passenger demand since the pandemic swept across the globe and essentially halted air travel for millions of people. The COVID-19 crisis has transformed the worldwide shortage of pilots into a surplus of them. The current crisis has changed everything, including carriers furloughing pilots by the thousands due to the deep cut in capacity for the next three years. https://phys.org/news/2020-05-global-aviation-industry-covid-.html Back to Top UTEP President Heather Wilson appointed to DOT's Women in Aviation Advisory Board EL PASO, Texas (KTSM) - UTEP President Heather Wilson was named chair of the Women in Aviation Advisory Board Friday. The WIABB was newly formed by the U.S. Secretary of Transportation in an effort to encourage women and girls to enter the aviation field. "Women are underrepresented in aviation and I look forward to working with Secretary Chao, the FAA, and the advisory board to develop strategies that will encourage more women to consider careers in the aviation industry," President Wilson said. President Wilson served as the 24th Secretary of the Air Force from 2017 until taking the helm at UTEP in 2019. She's a graduate of the U.S. Air Force Academy in the third class to include women and earned her master's and doctoral degrees as a Rhodes Scholar at Oxford University in England. Wilson is an instrument-rated private pilot and aircraft owner. As chair of the WIAB, she will lead 30 individuals representing a diverse range of backgrounds and expertise in the aviation industry who were also appointed as board members. "The Department welcomes Dr. Heather Wilson and these accomplished advisory board members, who share a commitment and passion for encouraging women to access opportunities in aviation," said U.S. Transportation Secretary Elaine L. Chao. The WIAAB was established Oct. 3, 2019, under the Federal Aviation Administration Reauthorization Act of 2018. The purpose of the WIAAB is to promoting organizations and programs that are providing education, training, mentorship, outreach, and recruitment of women in the aviation industry. Newly appointed board members include women from diverse backgrounds and expertise, including those from major airlines, institutions of higher education, aerospace companies, nonprofits within the aviation industry, aviation and engineering business associations, the U.S. Air Force Auxiliary, Civil Air Patrol, and aviation trade schools. "From Secretary Chao, to the several women on my senior leadership team, and the more than 10,000 women in the FAA, we see the professionalism and contributions that make our aviation industry the gold standard for the world every day," said FAA Administrator Steve Dickson. "We salute the WIAAB's new board members for their commitment to illuminate this career path for more women." Members will be appointed to the WIAAB for the duration of its existence, which is anticipated to be a minimum of two years. The board will meet up to twice annually to carry out its duties. https://www.ktsm.com/local/el-paso-news/utep-president-heather-wilson-appointed-to-dots-women-in-aviation-advisory-board/ Back to Top United Airlines' new CEO Kirby takes the reins, aiming to 'get through hell as quickly as possible' • Scott Kirby, United's president, slides into the CEO role on Wednesday, as the company faces its biggest-ever crisis. • Kirby is known for his expertise in maximizing revenue through growth. • The longtime airline executive has warned of potential job cuts and other cost reductions. United Airlines' incoming CEO Scott Kirby doesn't mince words. "It's far better to be too aggressive than not aggressive enough," then-United's president told a J.P. Morgan industry conference in early March, laying out a bleak picture of potentially sharp revenue declines, as the coronavirus was starting to disrupt everyday life in the U.S. Weeks later, the pandemic dragged air travel demand down to the lowest levels since the 1950s and the country's airlines, including United, posted their first losses in years. In quick succession, United announced a series of capacity cuts and idled hundreds of planes as Kirby and CEO Oscar Munoz warned of job cuts this fall if demand doesn't return. The airline scrambled to raise and conserve cash, including debt and equity sales, and sale leasebacks of some planes. Kirby, 52, United's president since August 2016 and a more than two-decade airline executive, slides into the top job on Wednesday. He faces the greatest challenge of his career, during which he has navigated bankruptcies, mergers, the effects of the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks and the 2008 financial crisis. Known as an action-taker with a talent for growing airline networks to maximize revenue, Kirby is expected to focus on reducing cash burn and reducing costs. United went into the second quarter burning about $50 million a day and plans to reduce that to a daily average of $40 million to $45 million in the second quarter and possibly below $40 million in the third quarter, Kirby told investors on a May 1 earnings call. Kirby will not only have to guide the airline through the unprecedented drop in demand and likely a deep recession, but the tricky job of persuading travelers it's safe to fly again, as every flight has the potential to go viral on social media if passengers are uncomfortable. Kirby and Munoz have gone through public backlashes before, few more memorable than the dragging of passenger David Dao off of a United Express flight in April 2017. I think it's a plus that he is absolutely decisive and incredibly smart. I think he is very lucky that United is highly unionized because it's going to require him to think things through. We're going to provide a check and balance. Sara Nelson PRESIDENT, ASSOCIATION OF FLIGHT ATTENDANTS After a passenger's photo of a packed United flight earlier this month was retweeted thousands of times, the airline implemented a policy that notifies customers if their flights are booked close to capacity and allows them to switch to other flights or receive a travel credit. United said "because our schedule is so reduced, there are a small number of flights where our customers are finding planes fuller than they expect." The airline industry is one of the hardest hit by the pandemic, with travel demand plunging more than 90% and cancellations outpacing bookings. United's shares are down more than 72% this year, while American's have lost more than 65% and Delta's are down nearly 63%. The investor exodus has included Warren Buffett, who announced this month that Berkshire Hathaway has sold its stakes in American, Delta, Southwest and United because of the impact of the virus. No minced words People who have worked with Kirby describe him as a detail-oriented decision-maker with little tolerance for half measures. Some analysts say that's just what the carrier needs as it faces its biggest-ever crisis. "I think you need a strong decisive person who is going to call it like it is," said Savanthi Syth, an airline analyst at Raymond James. Kirby rose through the ranks at America West and after mergers, at US Airways and then American Airlines, where he was president before separating from the company in 2016. Shortly after leaving American, he was named United's president in August 2016. At United, he instituted a daily 7:30 a.m. call with several dozen staff members to go over the previous day's operation and discuss any issues in the day ahead. "He's very hands-on," said one executive. Kirby has continued those calls from his home in the Dallas area over the past few weeks, where he is working remotely. As CEO, he will continue to oversee operations, revenue and other areas of the business that have been under his watch as president. Kirby's vision for strong growth and cost-cutting hasn't always landed well. He pushed for United's aggressive plan to grow as much as 6% a year from 2018 through 2020, which was met with a stock rout as investors feared low fares would dent revenue when the airline unveiled the strategy in early 2018. But the plan had paid off thanks to strong demand. United shares reached an all-time high in November 2018 of $96.70. In January 2020, United touted that it reached its per-share earnings goal a year ahead of schedule. United forecast full-year earnings of $11 to $13 a share in 2020 but in February it became the first major U.S. airline to withdraw its full-year financial forecast because of the virus. One of outgoing United CEO Munoz's best decisions was hiring Scott Kirby, says analyst United has backed off other plans implemented under Kirby after backlashes. For example, in 2018, United shelved a plan to make it harder for employees to get bonuses after staff complained. Kirby wrote to employees that the airline "misjudged how these changes would be received by many of you." When glimmers of an air-travel recovery appear, Kirby will have to weigh his penchant for growth with risks of expanding too much. Shrink and raise cash Like its large-airline competitors, United has spent years building up an international network, service that is now nearly halted as the virus, travel restrictions and stay-at-home orders crush demand. These carriers are also challenged by a plunge in corporate travel as companies eschew business trips, particularly those abroad, because of the pandemic. United, which has counted Apple among its largest corporate customers, offered more service to Asia than other U.S. carrier. Instead, it is idling some of its planes, although it is standing by the Boeing 737 Max planes it's ordered. Regulators haven't cleared those planes to fly since they were grounded in March 2019 after crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia. While airlines last year couldn't get their Max jets fast enough to cater to strong demand, United's problem now is a lack of passengers. "We are going through hell right now, but we know this virus will ultimately be defeated, and we will get to the other side," he said the May 1 earnings call. United lost $1.7 billion in the first three months of 2020, the Chicago-based airline's first negative quarter in six years. "We can't control or know when or how fast that may happen, but the people of United are doing everything within their power to control what we can, to take care of each other and our customers and to get through hell as quickly as possible." United has been focused on raising liquidity as the crisis deepens. The airline said that as of April 29, it had $9.6 billion in liquidity, after raising $4 billion from late March. Raymond James' Syth estimated in a report Sunday that United has 10 months of implied cash on hand, compared with 11.3 months for Delta and six at American. Some of the more difficult decisions are ahead as the airline prepares for the potentially massive layoffs or furloughs among its estimated 96,000 employees. Salaries and benefits accounted for around 31% of United's costs last year. United reached a deal last month for about $5 billion in U.S. government coronavirus aid that prohibits airlines from laying off or cutting the pay rates of employees through Sept. 30. Munoz and Kirby said they are forgoing their base salaries because of the crisis. Munoz announced in plans December to step aside and become executive chairman. Sara Nelson, a United flight attendant and president of the Association of Flight Attendants, which represents some 50,000 cabin crew members across about 20 airlines, pushed for payroll guarantees in the CARES Act, the $2.2 trillion coronavirus relief package. But Kirby and other top United officials are already preparing employees for job cuts, a scenario that is likely across airlines, barring a sharp turnaround in demand. Flight cuts have already shrunk airline employee paychecks as staff work fewer hours and thousands have taken unpaid leave. "I think it's a plus that he is absolutely decisive and incredibly smart," said Nelson. "I think he is very lucky that United is highly unionized because it's going to require him to think things through. We're going to provide a check and balance." Nelson said the unprecedented crisis requires engagement with the company. "Everyone is in survival mode. We're very aware Kirby's interest is going to be on the overall health of the airline and our interest is how this impacts individual flight attendants," she said. Kirby and Munoz said in an April 15 staff note that "the challenging economic outlook means we have some tough decisions ahead as we plan for our airline, and our overall workforce, to be smaller than it is today, starting as early as October 1." Reductions in work hours have already heightened labor tensions. United earlier this month backed off of a mandatory reduction in hours for fleet service and customer service workers after the union that represents those employees sued, calling it a violation of the terms of federal aid and their contract. United warned that if there aren't enough volunteers, the reduced hours could become mandatory. Todd Insler, chairman of the union that represents United's more than 12,000 pilots, said the company isn't discussing potential concessions such as pay cuts and that the problem now is weak demand that couldn't be solved with salary reductions. Insler and some other longtime pilots remember scars of concessions from previous bankruptcies. "We have absolutely been burned before," he said. Insler described his relationship with Scott as productive and said they are in frequent contact. "One of the things I like about Scott is Scott is aggressive and when the opportunity is there, we'll seize it," Isnler said. "But also because Scott's aggressive you have to watch him. Scott's aggressive but so am I." https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/19/united-airlines-scott-kirby-vows-to-get-airline-through-coronavirus-crisis.html Back to Top The Navy's Next Jet Trainer Won't Be Able To Land Or Take Off From An Aircraft Carrier This would be a huge change for the Navy's tactical jet Naval Aviator training pipeline. The U.S. Navy is looking for a new carrier jet trainer that could replace its aging T-45 Goshawks. Most interestingly, the service says it is looking to buy an existing land-based design that would be limited to doing touch-and-gos on aircraft carriers and would be unable to perform catapult launches from or arrested landings on those ships. This would be a radical change that would have major implications for much of the Naval Aviator training pipeline. FlightGlobal was first to notice that the Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR) had posted a request for information regarding what it is formally calling the Undergraduate Jet Training System (UJTS) on May 14, 2020. There is no firm publicly available schedule, so far, for when the Navy might begin buying any of these aircraft, which it also refers to as the T-XX, but the service says that it does want to begin replacing the T-45s around 2028. Right now, NAVAIR is interested in getting information "on the suitability of an existing land-based jet trainer aircraft design (i.e. nondevelopmental, as defined under FAR [Federal Acquisition Regulation] 2.101) to satisfy certain requirements under consideration for the next generation US Navy undergraduate jet trainer aircraft," according to the notice on the official U.S. government contracting website beta.SAM.gov. "Of particular interest, and the subject of this RFI [Request for Information], is the capability of a nondevelopmental aircraft to perform Field Carrier Landing Practice (FCLP) events and Carrier touch-and-go events, and the corresponding effects of these high sink rate landings." "The information provided in response to this RFI will be used to assess the current state of technology and inform whether the candidate system(s) can satisfy the capability requirements to perform missions in support of Chief of Naval Air Training (CNATRA) T-45 Combined Multi-Service Pilot Training System (i.e., CNATRAINST 1542.167B) and the Advanced Strike Fighter Undergraduate Military Flight Officer Training System syllabi (i.e., CNATRAINST 1542.164A)," the notice adds. The Navy says it expects to fly each UJTS aircraft for 400 flight hours each year. The jets would conduct around 1,200 Field Carrier Landing Practice (FCLP) landings using simulated facilities ashore, as well as up to 45 touch-and-gos on actual carriers, annually. The proposed purchase of a land-based jet trainer design that cannot actually land or takeoff from an aircraft carrier would be a major shift om how the Navy trains its fighter pilots. The T-45, which first entered service in 1991, is a carrier-capable variant of the well-established BAE Hawk series and replaced the existing carrier-capable T-2C Buckeye and TA-4J Skyhawk in the intermediate and advanced jet trainer roles, respectively. Launching from and recovering on an aircraft carrier is a highly complex and challenging affair under the best conditions and requires significant and routine training to develop and maintain the requisite skill sets. Being able to train pilots to perform these landings and takeoff through FCLP training using simulated facilities on land and with touch-and-gos on actual carriers would certainly provide valuable experience, but would not be a full substitute for the actual carrier qualifications that aviators can currently get while flying in the T-45 Goshawk. It's not clear from the contracting notice if the land-based design would actually be the only replacement for the T-45, as NAVAIR itself has made clear that it will only be able to meet "certain requirements" for the UJTS program. The War Zone has already reached out for additional information and clarification. It's certainly true that the T-45s, of which the Navy and the Marine Corps have around 194 in service in total, the oldest of which are now more than three decades old, are increasingly in need of a replacement. The Navy had originally planned to phase them all out in 2018, but, five years before, made to decision to instead extend their service life through 2042. The Goshawks fleet's readiness rates have slipped in recent years, raising concerns about the service's ability to train an adequate number of pilots each year. In 2019, the Government Accountability Office also warned about potential shortfalls in available aircraft as jets went through the planned Service Life Extension Program. The T-45 fleet also suffered a worrying and deadly spate of hypoxia incidents between 2016 and 2017. Various fixes to the aircraft themselves, as well as the Navy's operating procedures, have reduced the number of subsequent physiological events in the past three years, but identifying the underlying root causes has proven difficult. Buying an existing land-based design made to Navy specifications, but without having to modify it to withstand the stresses of catapult launches and arrested landings, could offer a low-cost, low-risk path for the Navy to acquire new jet trainers. One obvious option would be to acquire a version of the U.S. Air Force's new T-7A Red Hawk, the production of which started in January. The War Zone has already detailed the many possible future roles for the T-7A, or derivatives thereof, in the past. There are also a number of other proven and in-production land-based jet trainer designs available, including the losing entrants for the Air Force's T-X competition, which the T-7A won. The Air Force itself recently exploring buying a small number of South Korean-made KAI T-50 Golden Eagles to support its own transformational fighter jet pilot training plans. That service canceled its proposed sole-source purchase of the T-50s in March and now says it will hold an open competition. At the same time, whatever cost-savings the Navy might find by pursuing this course of action might be offset, at least in part, by changes that would then be necessary to its fighter pilot training pipeline. Those aviators will still need to conduct carrier qualifications and will need suitable aircraft in which to perform them. Even simply using existing F/A-18E/F Super Hornets to meet these requirements would increase the number of flight hours those jets have to dedicate to training missions, potentially pulling them away from other activities. These full-up fighters are also costly to operate. It is worth noting that the Navy is making substantial investments in developing and fielding various technologies to help automate carrier landings. It is possible that this could eventually reduce the amount of required carrier qualification training the service feels is required, but it wouldn't eliminate it entirely. At the same time, carrier qualifications have been getting steadily pushed farther and farther down the pipeline. The Navy has already done something broadly similar with regards to its C-2 Greyhound and E-2 Hawkeye aircraft. Prospective pilots destined to fly those aircraft conduct much of their training in the T-44, a variant of the Beechcraft King Air, which is also not carrier-capable. It's not clear how that training pipeline may also now change as the C-2s get replaced by the CMV-22B Osprey tilt-rotor. Still, as long as manned fighter jets operate from its carriers, there will be a need to have those pilots practice the uniquely complicated process of landing on, as well as taking off from, those flattops. Regardless, the Navy's plans to buy non-carrier-capable jet trainers to replace its T-45s, even in part, points to major changes coming in how the service prepares prospective fighter pilots for the challenges involved in joining its carrier air wings. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/33524/the-navys-next-carrier-jet-trainer-wont-be-able-to-land-or-take-off-from-a-carrier Back to Top Abu Dhabi's Etihad cuts hundreds of jobs: sources DUBAI (Reuters) - Abu Dhabi's Etihad Airways has laid off hundreds of employees this month, including cabin crew, after the coronavirus pandemic forced it to ground flights, according to industry and company sources. The state-owned airline, which had 20,530 employees as of August 2019, grounded passenger flights in March and a month later said it had made a large number of staff redundant. Two sources said hundreds of staff had been laid off this month with employees being let go on an almost daily basis. More job cuts were expected, they said. An Etihad spokeswoman told Reuters there had been redundancies across several areas of the airline. "It is clear the demand for travel in the near future will be significantly reduced and as a result we must make difficult decisions to ensure Etihad will weather this storm," she said. Etihad, which has lost $5.6 billion since 2016, has slashed wages as global travel has come to a near standstill. It has operated some passenger flights since March, mostly for foreigners leaving the UAE and said it plans to resume regular passenger flights in June. Countries are beginning to emerge from lockdowns, though the airline industry has cautioned it could take years for travel demand to recover. https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/abu-dhabis-etihad-cuts-hundreds-084902849.html Back to Top Delta will add flights to keep planes no more than 60% full as demand rises - sources (Reuters) - Delta Air Lines Inc will keep planes no more than 60% full through at least July, adding more flights to its schedule than demand would usually justify, people familiar with the matter said. The move is part of a longer-term bet that CEO Ed Bastian highlighted to investors last month: that consumers' perceptions of safety will be instrumental in reviving more routine travel, and that they will be willing to pay a premium for comfort. Specific details could still change, the people said on condition of anonymity, citing the uncertain timing of a recovery from the coronavirus crisis that has decimated air travel demand. Delta has publicly said that it will limit first class seating capacity at 50% and main cabin at 60% through June 30, and earlier announced that it was resuming some flights next month. "We announced a policy on seating capacity through June 30. Nothing has been decided beyond that but we are continuing to monitor the situation and make adjustments as necessary," Delta spokesman Trebor Banstetter said. Social distancing on airplanes has become a topic of debate. The global industry's main group IATA has said that airlines will not be able to make a profit if they limit airplanes to two-thirds of their normal capacity, unless they drastically increased airfares. In the United States, the chairman of the U.S. House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee last week urged airlines to maintain at least one seat between all passengers and cap seating at 67% of capacity on narrow-body airplanes. While major U.S. airlines' middle seat policies differ, they all require passengers to wear facial coverings, and they have all slashed their flying schedules by as much as 90% in an effort to stem a cash bleed amid withering demand. Still, Bastian said on a quarterly investor call that fewer airplanes in the skies could be an "opportunity for us to focus more on a more premium experience." Industrywide, U.S. airline load factors have recently been about 33%, with some airlines reporting load factors in the 40% range as passenger traffic inches off historic lows. But it is still down about 90% over 2019 levels. Adding more flights could bring in more revenues but also costs. Delta, which does not expect air travel to recover for two or three years, has said it aims to halve its daily cash burn to $50 million in June. In an effort to reassure passengers, U.S. airlines have also intensified cabin cleaning protocols, in many cases using electrostatic cleaning and fogging procedures. They have also endorsed temperature screenings by the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA), though this has yet to be implemented. https://www.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-delta-add-flights-keep-024348858.html Back to Top Relativity Space hires SpaceX executive to lead launch vehicle factory development WASHINGTON - Relativity Space has hired a longtime SpaceX executive to help the startup scale up production of its small launch vehicle. Relativity said May 18 that it is hiring Zachary Dunn as its new vice president of factory development. He will lead a team with an initial focus on delivering the first Terran 1, the company's launch vehicle, and then scale up production of the rocket using the company's 3D-printing technologies. Dunn was a summer intern at SpaceX in 2006, according to his LinkedIn profile, and then started full-time at the company in 2007 as a propulsion engineer. He became the company's senior vice president of propulsion and launch in 2018. "He has deep and demonstrated expertise in launch vehicle development and operations," Tim Ellis, chief executive of Relativity, said in an interview. "What stuck out to me most was his proven ability to solve some of the hardest engineering problems facing our entire industry." At Relativity, Dunn will oversee production of the Terran 1 rocket, slated to make its first launch in 2021, as the company looks ahead to large-scale manufacturing of the vehicle. Relativity announced earlier this year it was moving its headquarters to a larger building in Long Beach, California, and previously announced plans to eventually set up a production line for the rocket at a building the company will lease at the Stennis Space Center in Mississippi. "Getting the first rocket launched to orbit is, of course, the key proof point, but building the production system and factory is really what sets us apart," Ellis said. "He's the best person we could possibly hire to lead that." Relativity has continued to make progress over the last two months despite the pandemic. Most of the company's employees have been working from home, Ellis said, with just a single person in the factory at times overseeing the company's 3-D printers. The closure of Stennis since mid-March has affected engine testing the company does there, but he said he is "eagerly anticipating" doing more engine tests as the center starts to reopen in the next few weeks. Relativity has an internal task force that has been meeting daily since the pandemic escalated in March to oversee the company's response, Ellis said. The company is starting to bring more people back into the factory and looking at new procedures that will allow the company to move ahead while maintaining safety. Elon Musk, founder and chief executive of SpaceX, acknowledged Dunn's departure in a tweet May 18. "Zach made a significant contribution to SpaceX & is a friend," he wrote. "I wish him well as he tries something new." https://spacenews.com/relativity-space-hires-spacex-executive-to-lead-launch-vehicle-factory-development/ Back to Top GRADUATE RESEARCH SURVEY Dear Participants, You are being asked to participate in a research study of your opinions and attitudes about stress and mental health. This research started almost two years ago. The purpose of this study is to examine mental health issues in aviation, specifically Part 121 airline pilots. During this study, you will be asked to complete a brief online survey about your opinions on various life circumstances, stress, and mental health topics. This study is expected to take approximately 15 minutes of your time. In order to participate, you must possess an FAA issued Airline Transport Certificate (ATP) and you must also be currently working as a pilot for a Part 121 air carrier that is headquartered within the United States. Participation in this study is voluntary and data will be collected anonymously, stored confidentially, and you may choose to opt out of the study at any time. We sincerely appreciate your consideration and time to complete our study, as it is another small but important step towards increasing safety in aviation. Please click on the link below to complete the survey: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/7ZG6M6L For more information, please contact: Tanya Gatlin - Student Researcher Gatlint1@my.erau.edu 281-924-1336 Dr. Scott Winter - Faculty Advisor winte25e@erau.edu 386-226-6491 Curt Lewis