Flight Safety Information [October 8, 2020] [No. 204] In This Issue : Boeing Forecasts Challenging Near-Term Aerospace Market with Resilience in Long Term : ProSafeT - SMS, Quality & Audit Management Software : Incident: Canadian North B733 at Fort Mackay on Sep 29th 2020, engine vibrations : Boeing 737-4B6 - Ground Damage (Costa Rica) : FAA issues new proposed Boeing 737 MAX pilot training procedures : American Airlines Pilots Removed from Flights for Asking Colleagues to Wear a Face Mask : DOT Refuses Air Travel Mask Mandate as President Trump Travels To Walter Reed, Reports FlyersRights.org : Why Is English Aviation’s Official Language? : FAA Orders Modifications on B767 & B747 Fuel Tank Systems : Thai Airways’ Mysterious Flight To Louisiana : Centennial-based jet maker rolls out test version of its supersonic passenger plane : L3Harris Technologies and Truth Data team to improve helicopter safety : Over 40 airlines have failed so far this year — and more are set to come : British Airways retires its final Boeing 747 airplane : NBAA HONORS PILOTS WHO LANDED CITATION AFTER DUAL FLAMEOUTS Incident: Atlas B763 at Baltimore on Oct 5th 2020, enigne shut down in flight An Atlas Air Boeing 767-300 freighter, registration N1381A performing flight 5Y-3701 from Baltimore,MD to Tampa,FL (USA) with 2 crew, was climbing out of Baltimore, having levelled off at FL240 in accordance with climb clearances, when the crew declared emergency reporting the right hand engine (CF6) had failed and was shut down. The crew requested the longest runway at Baltimore (runway 28) and the emergency equipment on stand by. The aircraft returned to Baltimore for a safe landing on runway 28 about 43 minutes after departure. A replacement Boeing 767-300 registration N1181A reached Tampa with a delay of 4 hours. The occurrence aircraft returned to service about 21 hours after landing back. https://flightaware.com/live/flight/GTI3701/history/20201005/1007Z/KBWI/KTPA http://avherald.com/h?article=4dd9059e&opt=0 Incident: Canadian North B733 at Fort Mackay on Sep 29th 2020, engine vibrations A Canadian North Boeing 737-300, registration C-GCNK performing flight 5T-1729 from Fort Mackay,AB to Edmonton,AB (Canada) with 25 passengers and 5 crew, was climbing through 3000 feet out of Fort Mackay's runway 35 in night conditions, accelerating to 250 KIAS, when the crew felt vibrations from the #1 engine (CFM56, left hand), reduced the engine to idle thrust, declared emergency and decided to divert to Fort McMurray,AB located 34nm south of Fort Mackay. The aircraft landed safely in Fort McMurray about 20 minutes later. The occurrence aircraft returned to service on Oct 3rd 2020. The Canadian TSB reported maintenance found several fan blades damaged consistent with hitting a large bird. https://flightaware.com/live/flight/MPE1729/history/20200930/0330Z/CYNR/CYMM http://avherald.com/h?article=4dd926ca&opt=0 Boeing 737-4B6 - Ground Damage (Costa Rica) Date: 07-OCT-2020 Time: Type: Boeing 737-4B6 (SF) Owner/operator: AerCaribe Cargo Registration: HK-5228 C/n / msn: 26526/2219 Fatalities: Fatalities: 0 / Occupants: Other fatalities: 0 Aircraft damage: Minor Location: San José-Juan Santamaria International Airport (SJO/MROC) - Costa Rica Phase: Pushback / towing Nature: Cargo Departure airport: San José-Juan Santamaria International Airport (SJO/MROC) Destination airport: Panama City-Tocumen International Airport (PTY/MPTO) Narrative: Aer Caribe flight JK1156, a Boeing 737-300 cargo plane sustained damage to the fuselage in a towing incident during pushback at Juan Santamaria Airport in Costa Rica. The tug driver was slightly injured. https://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/243711 FAA issues new proposed Boeing 737 MAX pilot training procedures WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) on Tuesday issued a draft report on revised training procedures for the Boeing 737 MAX, a key milestone to the plane's eventual ungrounding. The FAA said the draft Flight Standardization Board report would be open for public comment through Nov. 2 before the procedures are finalized. The proposal adds new training requirements to deal with a key safety system called MCAS tied to two fatal crashes that killed 346 people and led to the plane's grounding in March 2019. Boeing did not immediately comment. MCAS, which was designed to help counter a tendency of the MAX to pitch up, could be activated after data from only a single Angle of Attack (AOA) sensor. Faulty data that erroneously triggered MCAS to repeatedly activate played critical roles in fatal 737 MAX crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia, a U.S. House report released last month said. The FAA is requiring new safeguards to MCAS, including requiring it receive data from two sensors, before it allows the 737 MAX to return to service. Pilots must undergo new simulator training before they can resume flights, including training on multiple flight deck alerts during unusual conditions along with how to respond to a runaway stabilizer with timely pilot actions required. Pilots must also get training for erroneous, high AOA malfunctions. The FAA must finalize the software upgrade requirements and other changes to the 737 MAX before it can issue an ungrounding order, which is expected at some point in November. That could allow the MAX to begin resuming commercial flights before the end of 2020. https://www.yahoo.com/news/faa-issues-draft-report-boeing-202653288.html American Airlines Pilots Removed from Flights for Asking Colleagues to Wear a Face Mask At least two American Airlines pilots have been removed from flights and one has been docked pay after asking their colleagues to wear a face mask while in the flight deck. Although it has been mandatory for both passengers and flight attendants to wear a face mask or other approved face covering on flights since May, American says the wearing of a face mask is optional for pilots while operating on the flight deck. In at least two cases, Captain’s have asked the First Officer to wear a face mask as protection against COVID-19. Although the Commander of their respective aircraft, both Captain’s were allegedly been removed from trips for insisting that a mask be worn. In one case, the Captain was not paid for the trip he lost. A spokesperson for The Allied Pilots Association said wages were docked despite American receiving billions of dollars in federal payroll support at the time. A spokesperson for American, however, tells us that their policy reflects that of other major U.S. carriers like Delta and United by allowing pilots to remove a face covering if they believe it could interfere in the safe operation of the aircraft. Face coverings remain compulsory in terminal buildings, in the aircraft cabins and crew rooms. The issue, however, is less clear at other airlines where concerns over communication while wearing a face mask have been raised. In Europe, pilots should not wear a face mask while at the controls in case they need to quickly put on breathing equipment in the event of a decompression or fume event. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), meanwhile, has declined to even issue mandatory face mask rules for flight attendants and passengers. As a result, airlines have been forced to implement and enforce their own policies. Flight attendants face disciplinary action for not wearing a face mask and staffers who are exempt for medical reasons have been asked to find alternative non-customer facing jobs. For passengers, airlines have wielded the threat of longterm bans to enforce the policies. In a statement, a spokesperson for American explained that pilots are required to wear a face mask on the flight deck but may remove it if they believe it “interferes with their ability to safely operate the aircraft. “Our pilots, like all American Airlines team members, are required to monitor their health daily and stay home if they aren’t feeling well. Our team member face covering policy, which is consistent with our customer policy, adds an additional layer of protection,” the statement explained. “This policy is in full compliance with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s recommendations and the Federal Aviation Administration’s Safety Alert for Operators (SAFO). Additionally, we worked closely with the Allied Pilots Association to establish this policy for pilots on the Flight Deck,” the statement continued. https://www.paddleyourownkanoo.com/2020/10/07/american-airlines-pilots-removed-from-flights-for-asking-colleagues-to-wear-a-face-mask/ DOT Refuses Air Travel Mask Mandate as President Trump Travels To Walter Reed, Reports FlyersRights.org DOT denied the need for Flyers Rights' rulemaking on the grounds that "most" airlines currently voluntarily adopt various forms of a mask rule and the notion that less regulation is better WASHINGTON, Oct. 7, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Minutes before President Trump departed by helicopter to Walter Reed Medical Center for hospitalization following his COVID diagnosis, on October 2nd, the Department of Transportation (DOT) denied Flyers Rights' emergency rulemaking petition requesting the DOT mandate a mask rule for all persons on airplanes and at airports, with some health, disability, and operational exceptions. The DOT articulated three justifications for denying Flyers Rights' rulemaking petition: First, DOT claimed that it does not need to promulgate a rule when "most" airlines already have adopted some form of a mask policy. Second, DOT argued its joint guidance with the Departments of Homeland Security (DHS) and Health & Human Services (HHS), recommending airlines and airports merely consider coronavirus mitigation techniques, is sufficient to meet their responsibilities to ensure safe air travel. Third, the DOT "embrace[d] the notion that there should be no more regulations than necessary," according to DOT General Counsel Steven Bradbury. "The DOT's timing is impeccable," Paul Hudson, President of Flyers Rights remarked. "President Trump's coronavirus diagnosis made the entire country confront the reality that the coronavirus pandemic is still active and that everyone must continue to follow CDC's recommendation for mask wearing and social distancing. DOT abdicating its responsibility at this time is unconscionable." Paul Hudson continued, "DOT's weak stance on coronavirus measures from the beginning, including masking and social distancing, forced the airlines to create a patchwork of policies on their own. Passengers cannot have confidence in air travel health safety based on voluntary policies that can be changed or ignored at will." DOT General Counsel Steven Bradbury's denial letter notes, "All major U.S. carriers and most others require the use of face masks." Paul Hudson cautioned "The DOT should not base its decision to not create and enforce a rule, on the basis that most, but not all, airlines have mask policies." Reports indicate that some airlines have been lax in enforcing their mask policies, and social distancing is impossible on most flights. Flyers Rights has also called on DOT to start monitoring the situation. FlyersRights' petition for rulemaking: https://flyersrights.org/facemasks/petition-for-emergency-rulemaking-facemasks/ DOT's denial letter: https://flyersrights.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/DOT-Denial-of-Mask-Rulemaking-Petition.pdf FlyersRights.org maintains up to date passenger rights information at www.flyersrights.org/know-your-rights/ and also provides passengers with legal information and appropriate contacts by phone, 877-FLYERS-6 and by email, hotline@flyersrights.org. FlyersRights.org, established in 2007, is the largest airline passenger organization. It publishes a bi-weekly newsletter, operates a free hotline for airline passengers 877- FLYERS6, advocates for passenger rights and interests, represents passengers on the FAA Aviation Rulemaking Advisory Committee dealing with air safety and maintains a staffed office in Washington, D.C. See: FlyersRights.org or https://twitter.com/FlyersRights. Media line 800- 662-1859. FlyersRights.org, 4411 Bee Ridge Road, 274, Sarasota, FL 34233 SOURCE FlyersRights.org https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/dot-refuses-air-travel-mask-mandate-as-president-trump-travels-to-walter-reed-reports-flyersrightsorg-301148243.html Why Is English Aviation’s Official Language? It doesn’t matter where in the world you are, any pilot wanting a job with a commercial airline needs to speak English. Whether that’s fair and reasonable is a whole other issue, but a simple administrative decision nearly 70 years ago turned English into aviation’s official language. Driving this decision was both practical and historical reasons. • ICAO made English the universal language of the aviation industry in 1951. Most nations involved with aviation in its early days spoke English In its infancy, aviation was primarily (although not exclusively) a pursuit of western nations. In these places, English was already commonly spoken and understood. But before the days of ATC and crowded skies, it didn’t really matter. Once you were up in the air, piloting a plane, you were largely on your own, whether you spoke English or not. But as the skies became more crowded, communication became more important. Everyone in the air needed to be on the same wavelength. It’s not an airline example, but the lack of standardized communication procedures contributed to the high death toll on the Titanic in 1912. By the mid 20th century, English was becoming the universal business language. In 1951, the International Civil Aviation Organization recommended English as the exclusive language for radio communications in the airline industry. On one level, it was for convenience’s sake. On another level, it facilitated the widespread usage of the ICAO phonetic alphabet (alpha, bravo, charlie, etc) and universal understanding of emergency terms such as MayDay and Pan-Pan. Safety and communication reasons highlighted the need for a universal language In a nutshell, there became a need for a common language for safety and communication reasons. The ubiquity of English and the role of English speaking countries in early aviation also had a role to play. But there are variations of English around the world. Travelers will know there are quirks of US English that go over the heads of native UK English speakers. New Zealand English can be downright incomprehensible sometimes. As well, Aviation English has many expressions and idioms exclusive to it. The term “MayDay” dates back to the Roman Republic when it referenced celebrations around Floralia, the Roman goddess of flowers. Over the centuries, the nature and meaning of the word changed. Despite this, MayDay is still associated with a holiday in many cultures. Of course, in Aviation English, it’s an emergency distress term. In aviation’s infancy, the initial preference was towards S.O.S. By the 1920s, there was a bit of aircraft activity between England and France, and there were some communication misunderstandings when it came to SOS. In 1923, The Times of London said; “Owing to the difficulty of distinguishing the letter “S” by telephone, the international distress signal “S.O.S.” will give place to the words “May-day,” the phonetic equivalent of “M’aidez,” the French for “help me.” All pilots wanting to fly for a living must understand & speak English That’s just one example of how a word can have different meanings but a particular meaning within a specific dialect of English. These days, ICAO requires all pilots who want to fly planes big enough to roll through controlled airspace to speak a minimum standard of English and understand Aviation English. Before pilots get their license, they must undergo formal language proficiency assessments. The result is noted and attached as an endorsement on their professional licenses. Aviation English and its universal application across the industry is one reason why it’s so safe to fly, and accidents are so rare. Human error causes most accidents involving aircraft. Clear and understandable communications are one way to minimize accidents occurring in the airline industry. https://simpleflying.com/english-aviation-language/ FAA Orders Modifications on B767 & B747 Fuel Tank Systems The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) yesterday issued two new Airworthiness Directives (AD) for Boeing 767 and 747 fuel tank systems, to prevent the risk of ignition. Both ADs were prompted by the FAA’s analysis of system reviews, conducted by Boeing, for the 767/747 fuel systems. The ADs concern is for the following planes: • 747-400, 747-400D and 747-400F • 767-200, -300, -300F and -400ER • Delta Boeing 767 Drops Escape Slide on Approach • Delta Boeing 767 Required Actions The FAA requires modifications to the Fuel Quantity Indicating System (FQIS). These modifications are to prevent the development of an ignition source inside the centre fuel tank, which is due to electrical fault conditions. “The FAA is issuing this AD to prevent ignition sources inside the centre fuel tank, which, in combination with flammable fuel vapours, could result in a fuel tank explosion and consequent loss of the airplane.” Operators will have 72 months, after the effective date of this AD (10th November), to make the required modifications. The directives affect 261 US-registered 767s (255 cargo airplanes, 4 private and 2 experimental airplanes) and 71 747s; different actions are required for cargo jets. The fuel-tank explosion risk caught aviation attention after the in-flight breakup, and subsequent crash, of TWA flight 800 in 1996, the aircraft for that flight was a Boeing 747-100. After years of investigation, the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) determined that the explosion of the centre wing fuel tank (CWT) resulted from an ignition of the flammable fuel/air mixture in the tank. FAA Also Requires Inspections to B757 Frame Yesterday, the FAA also issued an AD concerning the following aircraft: Boeing 757-200, -200CB and -300 series. “The FAA is issuing this AD to address cracking of the fuselage frame at STA 1640, which could result in reduced structural integrity of the airplane.” This directive was prompted by a report of fatigue cracking found in the fuselage frame at the station (STA) 1640, which severed the inner chord and web. This new AD supersedes an older one and requires the following: • An expanded inspection area to be addressed • Additional inspections to be carried out • A modified inspection type • Applicable repairs to be carried out on the fuselage frame https://samchui.com/2020/10/07/faa-orders-modifications-on-b767-b747-fuel-tank-systems/#.X379asJKiUk Thai Airways’ Mysterious Flight To Louisiana There’s nothing I love quite like a mysterious charter flight, and this one checks all the boxes… In this post: • Thai Airways’ flight to Alexandria, Louisiana • A likely explanation for this Thai Airways flight Bottom line Thai Airways’ flight to Alexandria, Louisiana Simple Flying notes that this past weekend a Thai Airways Boeing 777-300ER operated a roundtrip flight between Bangkok and Alexandria, Louisiana. The flight, which had the flight numbers TG8096 (eastbound) and TG8097 (westbound), was operated by a seven year old aircraft with the registration code HS-TKQ. It operated the following routing, flying eastbound on October 2, and westbound on October 3: • It flew from Bangkok to Honolulu in a flight time of 11hr56min • It flew from Honolulu to Alexandria in a flight time of 7hr21min • It flew from Alexandria to Honolulu in a flight time of 7hr54min • It flew from Honolulu to Bangkok in a flight time of 12h11min The roundtrip journey covered a distance of 21,298 miles. The plane spent just a couple of hours on the ground in Alexandria, so I’m guessing Thai Airways staffed the flight for the roundtrip journey. Thai Airways hasn’t offered scheduled flights to the US in years (the airline discontinued money-losing flights to the US in 2012), so what exactly was going on here? A likely explanation for this Thai Airways flight When I first heard about this flight I assumed that it was some sort of a US military charter: • In Honolulu the plane seemed to go to Hickam Air Force Base (HIK), which is adjacent to the Daniel K. Inouye International Airport (HNL) • Alexandria Airport (AEX) is often used for military charters, and even used to be an Air Force base; several months back I wrote about how Swift Air was running deportation charters through this airport • However, this raised some follow-up questions, which made me think that maybe there was a bit more to it. In particular, I believe that US military charters are typically operated by US airlines, so it seemed strange to me that the US would be chartering a Thai Airways plane for a US military charter. Fortunately a reader pointed out the much more likely explanation — it would appear that Thai soldiers often get trained abroad, and a story in the Bangkok Post from July suggests that in September and October Thai soldiers would be going to a Joint Readiness Training Center at Fort Polk in Louisiana. I think that more or less answers our question — it seems like this was a Thai military charter for training in the US, rather than a US military charter. Interestingly Thailand had sent some soldiers to Hawaii several months back for training, but that training was suspended after several soldiers tested positive for coronavirus. I wonder if with this trip anyone was dropped off in Hawaii, or if that stop was purely for refueling. Bottom line Thai Airways has operated a flight between Bangkok and Alexandria, Louisiana, this past weekend. That sure is one of the cooler non-scheduled flights we’ve seen in a while. All signs point towards this being a charter flight for Thai soldiers who were going to Louisiana for training. https://onemileatatime.com/thai-airways-mysterious-flight-louisiana/ Centennial-based jet maker rolls out test version of its supersonic passenger plane Colorado’s most high-flying startup surpassed its most important milestone yet — finishing the test version of its supersonic jet and readying it for its first takeoff. Boom Supersonic, the Centennial-based company formed to build supersonic planes for passenger airlines, unveiled its XB-1 test plane Wednesday in a virtual video show that featured some of the company’s high-profile investors, military and former NASA officials, as well as slick video of highlighting the glossy new jet itself. “We’ve now shown the world that we can take a paper airplane and turn it into a physical build,” said Julie Valk, vice president of Boom operations, in the rollout presentation. The XB-1 is slated to first take to the skies over the Mojave Desert testing grounds in California in the middle of 2021. The single-seat, 73-foot-long plane will prove crucial design elements and flight worthiness of the Boom concept and inform the final design and manufacturing of the company’s 65-passenger Overture jet. Boom, formed in 2014, is a graduate of the Silicon Valley startup accelerator Y Combinator. It has raised more than $140 million from investors and pursued plane designs promising to cut international travel times in half, making Washington D.C. to Paris a four-hour flight or Seattle to Tokyo in less than seven hours, and yet still having affordability comparable to fares today. Affordable supersonic flights will alter more than just travel times, Blake Scholl, Boom’s CEO and founder, is fond of saying. “Ultimately, it will change the way we experience the world,” he said Wednesday. Boom aims to have passengers flying on its Overture supersonic airliners by the end of the decade. Finishing the XB-1 is a key marker that the company is moving from design into testing. It also shows that Boom — which started with an exciting vision and founding team — has built an organization capable of executing its ambitious plan, which is where many startups stumble and fail, said Reid Hoffman, founder of LinkedIn and an early investor in Boom. The first passenger version of the supersonic Overture airliner is scheduled to roll off a factory production line in 2025. The company, which employs 140 people now, plans to break ground in 2022 on its initial factory producing Overture planes. Boom expects to select and announce where that factory will be next year. Several international airlines are interested in buying planes and made some purchase commitments, with Japan Airlines having ordered 20 planes and being first in line to debut the planes on routes in Asia. Boom charges $200 million per plane, Scholl said. Overture will essentially be just the business class and forward cabin of existing planes that airlines fly internationally now, but they’ll be able to fly the routes twice as frequently because of their speed and use half the onboard crew because of their size, Scholl said. That means the planes themselves should be "profit machines" for airlines even with affordable fares, he said, and that will be part of how supersonic flight helps remake the industry over the next decade. The most recent upgrades of passenger airline designs made planes more fuel efficient, but, unlike previous design advances, they didn’t make planes faster. Boom will pioneer planes that are more environmentally sustainable — it’s promising to make its business carbon neutral and Overture will use sustainable jet fuel — and twice as fast. “What happens when travel gets faster is people go way more places way more often,” Scholl said. “That pattern has skipped a generation, and we’re going to get back to that.” The company projects it will have to make more Overture planes than Boeing makes 787s, he said. “That’s big.” The aircraft won’t be introducing new technologies that the Federal Aviation Administration hasn’t reviewed before, it’s simply using technologies in a new kind of aircraft design, he said. Boom’s plans haven’t been altered by the Covid-19 pandemic, Scholl said. Many forecasts predict passenger aviation to have returned to normal by 2025. Many airlines’ grounding of older planes due to lack of demand will speed up refreshing their fleets when aviation returns to a growth phase, he predicted. And by then, supersonic jets should be ready. ”The timing is actually not bad for us,” Scholl said. Supersonic flight is restricted to international flights over water because of sonic boom noise. There are federal discussions now about how domestic, over land flights could be enabled, and Boom is working on sonic boom-mitigation technologies, too. https://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/2020/10/07/boom-supersonic-plane-international-airlines.html L3Harris Technologies and Truth Data team to improve helicopter safety Truth Data will utilize L3Harris’ scalable flight data analysis platform and benchmarking capabilities to better identify safety issues. L3Harris Technologies and Truth Data have signed an agreement to improve helicopter aviation safety by promoting helicopter flight data monitoring. Truth Data will utilize L3Harris’ scalable flight data analysis platform and benchmarking capabilities to enable customers to better identify safety issues and reduce risks. “Combining our two companies’ capabilities will help improve helicopter safety and benefit the entire aviation industry,” said Vince Kerr, vice president and general manager, Flight Data Services, L3Harris. “Our agreement will help expand the overall flight database, particularly for helicopter flights, and enable customers to identify safety or operational issues.” “Flight data monitoring is a critical tool in mitigating risks for helicopter operators and enhancing safety,” said Pete Henrikson, president, Truth Data. “Truth Data helps unlock the powerful information contained in an operator’s data, and we are delighted to partner with L3Harris to move this mission forward.” https://verticalmag.com/press-releases/l3harris-technologies-and-truth-data-team-to-improve-helicopter-safety/ Over 40 airlines have failed so far this year — and more are set to come • Huge aid packages saved airlines at a time when air travel came to a near standstill because of the coronavirus, but the worst is not over, analysts said. • Travel data company Cirium found that 43 commercial airlines have failed — completely ceased or suspended operations — in 2020 so far, compared to 46 in all of 2019 and 56 throughout 2018. • The effect of the pandemic is so great that larger airlines have also been badly hit in this environment, said Rob Morris of Cirium. SINGAPORE — Strong government support has stopped some airlines from going bankrupt — but more carriers could fail in the coming months, aviation experts say. Travel data company, Cirium, found that 43 commercial airlines have failed since January this year, compared to 46 in the whole of 2019 and 56 in all of 2018. A failed airline is one that has completely ceased or suspended operations, according to Cirium’s definition. “Without government intervention and support we would have had mass bankruptcies in the first six months of this crisis. Instead, we have had a manageable number of bankruptcies and very few collapses,” said Brendan Sobie, an independent analyst at Sobie Aviation. Sobie said many airlines were already struggling before the pandemic hit, but they now have a “better chance at survival” because of government help. “If there is any silver lining in all of this, it is that things were so bad that governments had no option but to support,” said Rob Morris, global head of consultancy at Cirium. More failures on the way? Despite the financial aid, however, the outlook for the rest of 2020 is “not encouraging,” Morris said. “Many airline failures typically occur in the final few months of the year,” he told CNBC in an email. The first and fourth quarters are “the hardest” because most of the revenue is generated in the second and third quarters. “I would typically characterize that airlines spend summers building ‘war chests’ so that they can survive winters,” he added. The goal for airlines now is to “survive at any cost” and see if the summer of 2021 brings solutions or higher demand. “With demand recovery in most regions stalled and airlines still struggling with revenue generation and cash outflow, we expect to see more failures in the final quarter of 2020 and first quarter of 2021 at least,” he said. Brendan Sobie of Sobie Aviation agreed with the prediction, and said some governments may be reluctant to bail airlines out a second time. “But I still don’t expect mass bankruptcies. The number of bankruptcies and collapses should be manageable and also spread out over a relatively long period of time,” he said. Larger airlines affected Bigger airlines are being impacted this time, Morris pointed out. Of the 43 airlines that failed in 2020 so far, 20 of them operated at least 10 aircraft, compared to 12 in all of 2019 and 10 throughout 2018, Cirium’s data showed. “Although we have seen fewer airline failures this year, the number of those airlines failing that operated ten or more aircraft is already greater than we have seen in any of the past six complete years. Thus it is clear that the pandemic is impacting larger airlines and causing them to fail,” Morris said. A higher number of aircraft has also stopped operating as a result. Some 485 planes have been idled because of airline failures so far, versus 431 in 2019 and 406 in 2018. Airlines may go bankrupt because of poor business models or other local issues, he highlighted. But the larger failures of 2020 and those to come are “inevitably a consequence of the pandemic-induced loss of demand.” “Coming off the back of ten years of continued demand expansion which resulted in the global traffic base almost doubling in that time, this sudden shock has left airlines with no revenue and structurally high costs,” Morris added. The International Air Transport Association this week warned that the industry will burn $77 billion in cash in the second half of 2020, and continue to bleed around $5 billion or $6 billion per month in 2021 because of slow recovery. The association in July said passenger traffic is likely to return to 2019 levels only in 2024. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/08/over-40-airlines-have-failed-in-2020-so-far-and-more-are-set-to-come.html British Airways retires its final Boeing 747 airplane (CNN) — British Airway retired the last of its huge Boeing 747 airplanes on Thursday when the final two planes still in service departed from London Heathrow -- a poignant event brought upon by the coronavirus pandemic. BA said that the jumbo jets, one dressed in "Negus" design and the other bearing Chatham Dockyard livery, took to the skies "one after the other" from Heathrow's 27R runway. One of the airplanes, G-CIVY, circled back over the runway before flying to St. Athan, Wales, to be retired, while the other, G-CIVB, will be kept at Kemble, England. In July, the British airline announced that it was grounding its fleet of 747s following the damaging impact that the Covid-19 pandemic has had on both the airline and aviation sector. Known as "Queen of the Skies" and popular among aviation fanatics, the Boeing airplane has fallen out of favor in recent years as airlines switch to more efficient smaller passenger jets. BA said it was already "slowly" phasing out the "fuel-hungry" aircraft in order to help meet a commitment to "net zero by 2050." But earlier this year, the company released a statement to say that the planes had likely flown their last scheduled commercial service -- despite recently refreshing the interiors of the planes having expected them to remain in service for several years. The British Overseas Airways Corporation (BOAC), one of BA's predecessors, operated its first 747 London to New York flights in 1971. In July 1989, BA took its first 747-400 -- the same model as flies today -- to the skies. The original aircraft, which featured 27 First Class and 292 Economy seats, featured an upper deck containing a lounge. The plane was the largest commercial aircraft in the world, until the arrival of the Airbus A380 in 2007. The aircraft was also home to BA's' very first flat bed seat, which it introduced in 1999. "This is not how we wanted or expected to have to say goodbye to our incredible fleet of 747 aircraft. It is a heart-breaking decision to have to make," Alex Cruz, BA chairman and CEO, said in July following the announcement that the planes would be retired. "Today was an emotional milestone in the retirement of our 747 fleet as it was our last chance to see the Queen of the Skies depart from our home at Heathrow airport," Cruz said Thursday. "The 747s have played a huge role in our 100-year history, forming the backbone of our fleet for over 50 years. I know I speak for our customers and the many thousands of colleagues who have spent much of their careers alongside them when I say we will miss seeing them grace our skies," he added. The final flight was live streamed on the airline's Facebook page Thursday. https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/boeing-747-british-airways-final-intl-scli-gbr/index.html NBAA HONORS PILOTS WHO LANDED CITATION AFTER DUAL FLAMEOUTS Two pilots who guided their Cessna Citation II air ambulance to a safe landing after both engines flamed out from fuel contamination have been named the recipients of a newly founded airmanship award bestowed by the National Business Aviation Association. NBAA honored Capt. Bruce Monnier and the co-captain, Gerald Downs, of air ambulance operator Air Trek with its first NBAA Above and Beyond Airmanship Award during a virtual safety town hall October 7. The award “recognizes action taken to avoid injury, loss of life, and/or major or catastrophic business aircraft damage,” the NBAA said in a news release. On May 9, 2019, the jet was one of two Air Trek aircraft that received fuel contaminated with diesel exhaust fluid, a urea-based chemical used to reduce diesel engine emissions that had been added in error to the fuel supply in a fuel truck at Punta Gorda Airport in Florida. DEF is not intended for use in aircraft, and can trigger chemical reactions leading to the formation of crystals that can clog filters or damage engines. AOPA reported at the time that both jets departed Air Trek’s Punta Gorda base and flew to Naples, Florida, where medical technicians, patients, and patients’ family members boarded. One Citation was headed to Niagara Falls, New York, when it experienced an engine flameout over the Atlantic Ocean north of Savannah, Georgia. It lost its second engine while diverting to Savannah but was able to glide to a safe landing. The other Citation was bound for Chicago when it experienced an engine failure and landed safely in Louisville, Kentucky. In all, 13 occupants escaped without injury, Air Trek said. Both aircraft were declared total losses. Monnier and Downs shared their thoughts about the emergency with AOPA Air Safety Institute Senior Vice President Richard McSpadden in this episode of the There I was… podcast. Among the challenges they faced, Monnier said, was that “there’s no checklist for dual engine failure” in the Citation II. Also, the pilots were uncertain whether the landing gear would operate normally or would have to be extended pneumatically—blown down, as the pilots described that contingency—once landing on the runway was assured. On the positive side, they said, the crew felt like they were “ahead of the airplane” throughout the emergency, and that their combined experience, including Downs’s glider rating, and their coordination created a calm cockpit environment with easy communications. Incidents including the Air Trek flights have highlighted concerns from the aviation industry of the high risk of fuel contamination from DEF that will persist as long as the substance must be used in airport vehicles according to environmental mandates. AOPA has worked to educate the general aviation community about the DEF fuel-contamination hazard. In August 2019, numerous other aviation stakeholders joined AOPA in signing a letter to FAA and Environmental Protection Agency leadership urging that “non-road, on-airport ground support equipment and vehicles, including fuel and maintenance trucks, that are used to service general aviation aircraft” be exempted from having to use DEF. The EPA has not yet responded, despite congressional follow-up inquiries. The FAA has told AOPA that it is updating Advisory Circular 150/5230-4C. The AC addresses misfuelling and DEF contamination incidents and provides guidance on creating, implementing, and documenting fuel fire safety programs required under FAA regulations. The October 7 NBAA town hall event also featured a flight safety discussion moderated by aviation journalist Miles O’Brien, who was joined by McSpadden and the well-known flight training experts John and Martha King of King Schools. https://www.aopa.org/news-and-media/all-news/2020/october/07/nbaa-honors-pilots-who-landed-citation-after-dual-flameouts Curt Lewis