Flight Safety Information [October 19, 2020] [No. 211] In This Issue : Boeing is using a 'scorched earth' strategy to keep evidence away from lawyers representing 737 Max crash victims, lawyer says : ProSafeT - SMS, Quality & Audit Management Software : Incident: Qeshm RJ1H at Abadan on Oct 16th 2020, engine shut down in flight : Incident: France B773 near Goose Bay on Oct 16th 2020, cargo smoke indication : Accident: Shenzhen A319 at Pan Zhi Hua on Oct 16th 2020, damaged tyres and fuselage on landing : American Airlines plans to return Boeing 737 Max to service at year-end : LA COPS USE AIRCRAFT TO HUNT MYSTERY JETPACK DUDE : American Airlines Eyes Dec. 29 Takeoff for Boeing 737 MAX : Boeing On Cusp Of EU Approval For Grounded 737-MAX Jet – Report : Alaska Air Is Poised to Lead the Airline Recovery : FAA Overhauls Commercial Space Launch Rules : Soon, Boeing and Lockheed Could Be the Only Space Companies Without Reusable Rockets : SCSI Online Courses - Aircraft Accident Investigation : RTCA - free webinar: Modernizing the NAS October 21, 1pm ET Boeing is using a 'scorched earth' strategy to keep evidence away from lawyers representing 737 Max crash victims, lawyer says Boeing is pushing back on requests for evidence in cases brought by relatives of victims in the 737 Max crashes, according to a lawyer representing some of them. Attorney Steve Marks accused Boeing of using a "scorched earth approach," trying to limit the provision of documents and witnesses that he said are relevant to the cases. 189 people were killed in the first 737 Max crash, off Indonesia in October 2018, and 157 people were in the second one in Ethiopia in March 2019. Marks — who was involved in cases from both crashes — said that Boeing is being far less cooperative over the Ethiopia crash. Boeing defended its approach, saying that it has produced almost 2 million pages of documents and is committed to working with the families. Boeing is using a "scorched earth" strategy to try and keep evidence away from lawyers representing the victims of one of the fatal 737 Max crashes, one of the lawyers said. Steven Marks, an aviation lawyer with Miami-based firm Podhurst Orseck, said Boeing has hardened its approach when dealing with the legal fallout of the second of the two crashes, which happened in Ethiopia in 2019. Boeing is currently seeking to settle cases brought by the families of those killed when the Ethiopian Airlines plane crashed into the ground with 157 people on board. It has largely settled cases from the earlier October 2018 crash of a 737 Max operated by Indonesia's Lion Air, where 189 people died. Lion Air Families of the victims of Lion Air flight JT 610, visit an operations centre to look for personal items of their relatives in October 2018. Ulet Ifansasti/Getty Images The two crashes led to the planes being grounded around the world, and the greatest crisis in Boeing's history. They led to a string of lawsuits from grieving families, as well as Boeing shareholders. Airlines which had bought the planes sought compensation, others canceled future orders, and Boeing faced intense scrutiny from Congress. Its former CEO was fired in the fallout. In an interview with Business Insider, Marks said that Boeing's approach differed starkly between the Lion Air and Ethiopian cases. In the latter, he said, the company's lawyers were refusing to provide evidence that the victims' representatives want to see. He called Boeing's approach in the Ethiopian Airlines "the complete polar opposite of what happened in Lion Air." In the Ethiopian Airlines cases, he said, "Boeing took a very different scorched earth approach." In a statement to Business Insider, Boeing defended its approach and argued that it had taken its obligations to provide evidence "seriously." A spokesman said the company had turned over close to 2 million pages so far. Marks represents seven of the families in that crash, none of which have been settled. He has settled 37 cases from the Lion Air crash. Marks is also one of the leaders of the committee of lawyers from different legal firms that all represent the families of those killed, which was formed by the judge overseeing the cases. Marks described the provision of evidence as "the main point of pressure" that these lawyers have had with Boeing. He said he and others had been "fighting with Boeing for more than a year" on what kind of information is relevant to the cases, including documents and witnesses. "It's been a real dog fight every step of the way. There's almost never an agreement. It's the complete polar opposite of what happened in Lion Air." "They're trying very hard to limit to production of documents, limit witnesses that are available for deposition and everything has been a dogfight." He said: "Every little step of the way has been a fight and it's been difficult to get anything." Marks said that his team of lawyers asked for documents that Boeing had produced in litigation with shareholders, including minutes of directors' meetings and "email exchanges as to how much the board knew." One of the key questions surrounding the crash legal cases is the extent to which Boeing was aware of issues with the Ethiopian plane before it flew. But he said Boeing objected to supplying the minutes and emails on the grounds that they are not relevant. The lawyers are putting forward a motion that could compel Boeing to provide them. Marks said that Boeing had also refused to make documents available that it had given to Congress to help lawmakers' investigations of crashes. In a statement to Business Insider, Boeing spokesman Bradley Akuburio said that Boeing is taking providing evidence "seriously" and that it will continue working with the lawyers. "We extend our deepest condolences to the families and loved ones of all those onboard Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302," he said. "We are committed to continuing to engage with the families in an effort to resolve their claims. We take our discovery obligations seriously and have produced close to 2 million pages of documents to date." "We will continue working with the counsel for the families and the court to address their outstanding requests for information." Boeing has made updates to the system that malfunctioned both crashes, and the plane is expected to soon be approved to fly again. Boeing also previously committed to making the plane one of the safest ever to fly when it is back in the sky. Marks said that his team of lawyers recently filed a motion that would compel Boeing to provide some more evidence, like getting access to employees' personal devices and laptops: "The issue is now before the court." Marks argued that he and other lawyers already "have enough discovery to establish Boeing's liability." "But the families and the flying public deserve to know the full extent of the malfeasance which Boeing is continuing to hide." Marks noted that Boeing is using different legal firms for each crash, which could lead to the varying approaches. He also noted that the Lion Air cases were legally "a little easier to deal with" than the Ethiopian Airlines cases because the victims were mostly of one nationality, unlike in the Ethiopian crash. He said the cases were also more straightforward US law applied since the crash took place over international water. The Ethiopian crash was on land. The Ethiopian Airlines cases are currently before Judge Jorge L Alonso of the Federal Northern District Court of Illinois. How much evidence Boeing would have to provide has been a central question in how the cases would play out since they were first brought against Boeing. Boeing had earlier explored moving the Lion Air cases from the US to Indonesia, where the crash occurred. It's a move that is common in aviation litigation but one that both experts and lawyers for victims told Business Insider would have ended in Boeing being required to provide much less evidence, and likely leave families with much smaller settlements. https://www.yahoo.com/news/boeing-using-scorched-earth-strategy-100000921.html Incident: Qeshm RJ1H at Abadan on Oct 16th 2020, engine shut down in flight A Qeshm Air Avro RJ-100, registration EP-FQZ performing flight QB-1217 from Abadan to Tehran Mehrabad (Iran), was climbing out of Abadan when the crew stopped the climb at 5000 feet because of an engine (LF507) failure. The crew shut the engine down and returned to Abadan for a safe landing about 17 minutes after departure. The aircraft remained on the ground for about 16 hours, then positioned to Tehran Mehrabad Airport reaching a maximum FL210. The aircraft is still on the ground in Tehran about 31 hours after landing in Tehran. The airport reported the aircraft returned due to an engine failure and landed safely. The passengers were rebooked onto an alternate flight the following day. http://avherald.com/h?article=4de0660c&opt=0 Incident: France B773 near Goose Bay on Oct 16th 2020, cargo smoke indication An Air France Boeing 777-300, registration F-GSQH performing flight AF-347 from Montreal,QC (Canada) to Paris Charles de Gaulle (France) with 100 people on board, was enroute at FL380 about 280nm northeast of Goose Bay when the crew received a forward cargo smoke indication, declared Mayday Mayday and decided to divert to Goose Bay receiving a direct vector to the approach fix for RNAV approach to runway 26, the crew decided not to dump fuel. Upon inquiry by ATC the crew reported they did not smell any unusual odour and did not have any smoke, just the smoke indication, the crew requested emergency services on arrival and requested that first all passengers and crew would disembark before the cargo door was opened. The aircraft landed safely in Goose Bay about 53 minutes after turning around and leaving FL380. The aircraft vacated the runway and stopped on the parallel taxiway for an inspection by emergency services. The passengers disembarked via mobile stairs. Emergency services did not find any trace of fire, smoke or heat, the indication was identified false. The operator diverted flight AF-349 Montreal to Paris CDG also to Goose Bay to pick up the passengers of AF-347. The passengers of flight AF-347 reached Paris with a delay of 7.5 hours and the passengers of AF-349 with a delay of 4.5 hours. The occurrence aircraft is still on the ground in Goose Bay about 12 hours after landing. https://flightaware.com/live/flight/AFR347/history/20201016/2335Z/CYUL/LFPG http://avherald.com/h?article=4ddf9c25&opt=0 Accident: Shenzhen A319 at Pan Zhi Hua on Oct 16th 2020, damaged tyres and fuselage on landing A Shenzhen Airlines Airbus A319-100, registration B-8667 performing flight ZH-9247 from Xian to Pan Zhi Hua (China), landed in Pan Zhi Hua and taxied to the apron, where passengers disembarked normally. A post flight inspection revealed punctured tyres. The return flight was cancelled. The airline confirmed the aircraft sustained main tyre damage on landing, which prevented further dispatch. The return flight was cancelled. The passengers on the return flight were rebooked onto the flight the following day and were provided with accomodation. Gossip in professional aviation circles in China suggest, that the airport performed a runway inspection after landing and found 6 approach lights and the localizer antenna (opposite runway) damaged, the aircraft sustained damage to the main landing tyres and the aft belly. China's Civil Aviation Authority are investigating an unsafe occurrence. The airport's press department told local newspapers that they have not been notified about any equipment damage on the airport, the airport continued to operate normally. However, subsequent flights had to be cancelled or diverted due to weather conditions at the mountain top airport, which is plagued by low clouds. The aircraft is still on the ground in Pan Zhi Hua about 13 hours after landing. No Weather data or NOTAMs are available for the airport [ZUZH], which features a runway 02/20 of 2800 meters (9190 feet) length with ILS and approach lighting available for both runways. http://avherald.com/h?article=4ddf0f8c&opt=0 American Airlines plans to return Boeing 737 Max to service at year-end WASHINGTON (Reuters) - American Airlines Group plans to return Boeing 737 Max jets to service for passenger flights by the end of this year depending on certification of the aircraft from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), it said on Sunday. The airline said it will operate a daily 737 Max flight between Miami and New York from Dec. 29 to Jan. 4, with flights available for booking from Oct. 24. "We remain in contact with the FAA and Boeing on the certification process and we'll continue to update our plans based on when the aircraft is certified," the company said in an statement. The FAA in a statement Sunday reiterated it has no timeline for approving the plane's return to service and said it "will lift the grounding order only after FAA safety experts are satisfied that the aircraft meets certification standards." The Boeing 737 MAX has been grounded since March 2019 after two fatal crashes killed 346 people. The FAA expected to lift its grounding order around mid-November, sources briefed on the matter previously told Reuters, but that date could still slip. American Airlines said it will make customers aware that they are flying on a 737 MAX. The FAA in early October issued a draft report on revised training procedures for the MAX, which is open for public comment through Nov. 2. https://www.yahoo.com/news/american-air-run-boeing-737-060308428.html LA COPS USE AIRCRAFT TO HUNT MYSTERY JETPACK DUDE On September 1, an American Airlines pilot saw something highly unusual while looking outside the window at about 3,000 feet, shortly prior to landing at the Los Angeles International Airport. “Tower, American 1997, we just passed a guy in a jetpack,” the bewildered pilot told LA’s tower, as ABC 7 News reported at the time. Then, this Wednesday, China Airlines pilots made yet another strange sighting at about 6,000 feet, describing an unidentified object that looked “like a jetpack.” Air traffic controllers got in touch with nearby jetliners — but other pilots saw nothing. A law enforcement aircraft immediately flew to the location where the jetpack was sighted — but found nothing, the LA Times reports. An Accident Waiting To Happen “The FBI is in contact with the FAA and investigating multiple reports of what, according to witnesses, appeared to be an individual in a jet pack near LAX, including one today by a China Airlines pilot,” the FBI told the LA Times in a statement. Even jetpack manufacturers are bewildered by the news. “There are only a handful of companies working on this type of technology, and none of us have heard about anybody doing something like this,” David Mayman, chief executive of the Los Angeles-based Jetpack Aviation, told NBC. “The question is, why the heck would you go fly around LAX? You need to have your head read,” he added. “That’s a catastrophic accident waiting to happen.” https://futurism.com/the-byte/la-cops-hunt-mystery-jetpack American Airlines Eyes Dec. 29 Takeoff for Boeing 737 MAX The airline plans to return passenger flights on the grounded aircraft in phases, while United Airlines, Southwest have no plans yet to use the aircraft this year. American Airlines Group (AAL) - Get Report plans to let customers take trips on its Boeing (BA) - Get Report 737 MAX jets as early as this year -- more than 18 months after the grounding of the new jets. If Boeing gets all needed federal approvals as planned, the airline will begin passenger flights on the MAX jets just days after Christmas, American said in a statement issued over the weekend and obtained by TheStreet. Customers will be able to book flights on the aircraft as early Oct. 24. "Based on the current plan, flights beginning Dec. 29 will be the first flights for paying customers," an American Airlines spokeswoman separately told TheStreet on Sunday. The Boeing jets -- which have been grounded since March 2019 following two fatal accidents -- could win recertification from the FAA as early as November, according to a Reuters report. But officials told the news service on Sunday it “will lift the grounding order only after FAA safety experts are satisfied that the aircraft meets certification standards.” An FAA spokesperson did not immediately respond to questions from TheStreet on Sunday. Another major U.S. carrier, United Airlines (UAL) - Get Report, told TheStreet on Sunday it has no set plans yet for resuming flights with its fleet of 14 MAX jets. "We don't know the exact date the MAX will be recertified," company spokesman Frank Benenati said in an email. "And at this point, we don't have them in the schedule this year, so likely sometime next year based on the schedule we hear from the FAA and Boeing." Another major carrier, Southwest (LUV) - Get Report told TheStreet it is also looking to next year, by as early as the first quarter, to begin flights on its MAX jets. "We are hopeful to return the MAX to service in the first quarter of 2021, but of course, timing is dependent upon FAA certification," said Southwest spokesman Chris Mainz. At time of the grounding in March 2019, the airline had 34 MAX jets in operation, said Mainz, but according to Southwest's most recently earnings report, it returned five leased 737-700 aircraft during second quarter 2020. According to "current planning assumptions," Southwest expects to purchase no more than 48 MAX aircraft total through Dec. 31, 2021. By the end of 2026, it could make an additional 217 "firm orders" and 115 options for MAX aircraft in its order book. Delta (DAL) - Get Report has no 737 MAX on its fleet and in an email to TheStreet on Sunday did not indicate plans to change its plans. American Airlines said it will begin its planned flights of the jets in phases, starting with one daily 737 MAX flight that will operate through Jan. 4. American cautioned that the return-to-service plan will "remain highly dependent" on the Federal Aviation Administration's recertification process. “We remain in contact with the FAA and Boeing on the certification process and we’ll continue to update our plans based on when the aircraft is certified," said the American Airlines statement. "To ensure American is ready to fly the 737 MAX once the aircraft is certified, our crew members must be able to bid their schedules for this line of flying," said American. “We remain in contact with the FAA and Boeing on the certification process and we’ll continue to update our plans based on when the aircraft is certified," said the American Airlines statement. When reached Sunday by TheStreet, a Boeing spokeswoman declined to comment on the news, and directed any questions around the recertification process to the FAA. American Airlines said it plans to fly MAX jets prior to the Dec. 29 date without passengers and that customers will be told they are booking on the 737 MAX jets. American has a fleet of 24 737 MAX aircraft, which currently is held in a maintenance facility in Tulsa, Oklahoma. The airline has an 76 additional jets on order from Boeing and has "agreements" for 32 spare engines to be delivered in this year and beyond. The flights would be the first with the airline since the FAA ordered all U.S.-registered Boeing 737 MAX aircraft grounded following two fatal crashes. A Boeing 737 MAX Ethiopian Airlines flight crashed in March 2019, killing all on board, just months after 157 passengers and crew were killed in October 2018 when a Lion Air flight crashed over Indonesia. But Boeing appears closer to getting more widespread confidence in its jets, as the European Union Aviation Safety Agency on Friday reportedly decided the 737 MAX was safe to fly. https://www.thestreet.com/investing/american-airlines-eyes-boeing-737-max-takeoff-by-dec-29 Boeing On Cusp Of EU Approval For Grounded 737-MAX Jet – Report Boeing’s grounded 737-MAX aircraft could be close to returning to the skies by the end of this year, after Europe’s aviation safety head told Bloomberg that it is safe enough to fly. The comment comes even as a further software upgrade the European agency demanded from Boeing (BA) won’t be ready for up to two years. Patrick Ky, executive director of the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) said that after test flights of Boeing’s grounded aircraft conducted in September, the watchdog is performing final document reviews ahead of a draft airworthiness directive it expects to issue next month. The process will be followed by 4 weeks of public comment, while the development of a so-called synthetic sensor to add redundancy will take 20 to 24 months, Ky told Bloomberg. The software-based solution will be required on the larger Max 10 variant before its debut targeted for 2022, and retrofitted onto other versions. The 737 MAX has been grounded for more than a year after two fatal crashes. Following the report, Boeing shares advanced 1.9%, while the US planemaker’s engine supplier General Electric jumped 6.1% on Friday. “Our analysis is showing that this is safe, and the level of safety reached is high enough for us,” Ky said in an interview with Bloomberg. “What we discussed with Boeing is the fact that with the third sensor, we could reach even higher safety levels.” Shares in BA have plunged 49% year-to-date as the coronavirus travel restrictions have resulted in a deep cut in the number of commercial jets and services Boeing customers need over the next few years. As such, global airlines suffering billions of dollars in losses have been seeking to cancel or delay some of the orders they have with Boeing including the 737 MAX. (See BA stock analysis on TipRanks). During the month of September, the planemaker did not record a single new order, while three orders for its grounded 737 MAX jetliner were cancelled. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-cusp-eu-approval-grounded-073806447.html Alaska Air Is Poised to Lead the Airline Recovery Low cash burn, an improving revenue trajectory, and substantial cost-cutting opportunities all point to a quick post-pandemic rebound for the Alaska Airlines parent. There's no doubt that 2020 has been an awful year for airlines and their shareholders. But a crisis like the coronavirus pandemic often has a way of separating the long-term winners from the losers in an industry. Alaska Air Group (NYSE:ALK) increasingly looks like one of the biggest long-term winners among U.S. airlines. In fact, the West Coast airline is in great position to come back strong over the next few years, boosting its earnings beyond pre-pandemic levels. Cash burn is under control While all major U.S. airlines have made great strides in reducing their cash burn since March, Alaska Air has been arguably the most successful of them. In recent months, the carrier has routinely outperformed its cash burn projections. This streak of outperformance continued last month. Alaska disclosed this week that it burned $117 million in September: well below the estimate of $150 million it provided a month ago. For the third quarter as a whole, daily cash burn averaged just over $4 million. This was down about 70% compared to March. As of Oct. 9, Alaska Air had $3.6 billion of cash on hand, along with access to nearly $1.8 billion of additional low-cost loans from the federal government. That's enough cash to last more than three years based on the company's recent cash burn rate. Moreover, cash burn is likely to slow further in the months ahead due to gradual improvements in demand and cost-cutting initiatives, including an early retirement program and management reductions. The right product in the right place To some extent, Alaska's above-average performance over the past few months reflects less-stringent travel restrictions on the West Coast than in the Northeast, and a stronger air travel recovery in the West than in many other parts of the country. Alaska Airlines' route network is well suited to carrying leisure travelers from big West Coast metro areas to national parks, beaches, and mountains throughout the West. Looking ahead into the holiday season and 2021, Alaska Airlines will continue to benefit from rebounding leisure travel demand, particularly as key vacation destinations like Hawaii reopen. The carrier's low cost structure should allow it to reach breakeven while still primarily carrying lower-fare leisure traffic. Alaska Airlines could also see a faster recovery in business travel than its larger rivals, thanks to favorable geography. With its main hub in Seattle and significant operations in most major West Coast cities, Alaska has high exposure to the technology industry, which has survived the pandemic relatively unscathed. That could pave the way for a faster recovery in business travel relative to full-service airlines, which have historically carried a lot of traffic associated with sectors that are now struggling (such as energy). A huge savings opportunity ahead Finally, Alaska Airlines has a massive opportunity to improve its unit costs by returning to an all-Boeing fleet over the next five years or so. Alaska recently hinted at such a move, taking an impairment charge on 10 relatively new Airbus A320s that it owns. It is reportedly talking to Boeing about a substantial order for 737 MAX jets, which could come at a big discount given how desperate the aircraft company is for customers. Back in 2017, Alaska estimated that standardizing its mainline fleet could reduce annual costs by $20 million to $25 million. Additionally, the 737 MAX 9 and 737 MAX 10 have dramatically lower unit costs than the A319s and A320s they would replace. Finally, Alaska Airlines pays high rent for its leased Airbus planes. As of the beginning of 2020, annual aircraft rent was set to plunge from $245 million in 2020 to $81 million by 2024 due to the expiration of most of those leases. All in all, replacing Alaska's Airbus planes with new 737 MAX jets could save hundreds of millions of dollars annually by 2025. Adding that to the savings from streamlining management (among other things) and the company's above-average prospects for a revenue recovery, Alaska Airlines is on track for a strong rebound as the pandemic dissipates. https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/10/17/alaska-air-is-poised-to-lead-the-airline-recovery/ FAA Overhauls Commercial Space Launch Rules The FAA has finished a wholesale overhaul of its commercial space launch and reentry regulations, giving launch companies more flexibility and responsibility in scheduling and managing operations. “The old regulations were woefully out of date and really out of step. Industry told us that loud and clear,” FAA Administrator Steve Dickson said in an online announcement of the Streamlined Launch and Reentry Licensing Requirements. The new rules were mandated by Congress two years ago but the FAA seems as pleased with the result as the politicians might be considering the pace of launch activity. So far this month, there have been three launches and that’s the same number that occurred all year in 2010 and 2011, each requiring an arduous bureaucratic process that strained both the agency and the companies. Under the new regime, rather than getting an authorization for each launch, the companies can get a batch of approvals that allows them to fire each type of rocket from multiple launch sites without having to go back to the agency. The FAA has also moved to a “performance based” regime that puts the onus on the companies to show how they will safely carry out launches rather than having the terms dictated by the FAA. Companies are cautiously optimistic about the revised regs but haven’t had a chance to wade through the 785-page document in detail yet. Companies were critical of the first draft of the rules released in 2019 but FAA spokesman Wayne Monteiths said the criticisms were taken to heart by the FAA and the result is a “much better rule.” The final rule will be published in the Federal Register in coming weeks and there will be a 90-day comment period. https://www.avweb.com/aviation-news/faa-overhauls-commercial-space-launch-rules/ Soon, Boeing and Lockheed Could Be the Only Space Companies Without Reusable Rockets It's looking like a three-horse race to develop the cheapest reusable rocket. You know how they say that "imitation is the sincerest form of flattery"? Well, Elon Musk must be feeling very flattered today. For 54 years, the Soviet Union and then Russia have been flying variants of their "Soyuz" rocket to send astronauts, satellites, and cargo to space. Last week, though, Russian Space Agency Roscosmos announced that it will design and build a new space rocket -- a new reusable space rocket -- dubbed the "Amur" to carry Russia's space program through the rest of the 21st Century. Reading through the details of the new methane-oxygen-powered rocket, described in a combination press release-interview story by Russian state news agency TASS, it's impossible to miss the similarities to Elon Musk's fleet of Falcon 9 rockets at SpaceX -- or the dissimilarities to anything produced by Boeing (NYSE:BA) or Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT). Here's what we know about Russia's new Amur. The name Russia's new rocket will be named for the region from which it will launch -- Amur Oblast in Russia's Far East. Probably not coincidentally, this is the location of Russia's newest spaceport, the Vostochny Cosmodrome, near the border with China. The specs Amur will be designed with an optionally reusable first stage powered by five RD-0169A methane-oxygen engines, and an expendable second stage with a sixth, vacuum-rated RD-0169V engine. After launch, the first-stage booster will land back on Earth, slowed and guided en route by gridlike "fins" -- just like SpaceX's Falcon first stages. (Roscosmos also mentions the possibility of first stages landing "like an airplane" with the use of "folding wings" -- but that would seem more of a backup plan in case Roscosmos cannot master landing on retrorockets.) Either way, because Vostochny is an inland site, located several hundred miles from the sea, Amur first stages will only land on solid ground. At this time, Russia has no plans to build SpaceX-like drone ships for landings at sea, due to frequently adverse weather conditions in the Sea of Okhotsk. That's the first big difference between Amur and SpaceX's Falcon 9 -- and it will flatten Roscosmos's learning curve, because land landings are easier than hitting a moving target on water. Another difference is size. With a 55-meter height and a 4.1-meter diameter, Amur will be shorter, but a bit squatter, than SpaceX's Falcon 9. Despite its wider stance, Amur's payload fairing (the "capsule" that contains the satellites, astronauts, or other cargo) will be slightly smaller than Falcon 9's -- just 5.1 meters in diameter. To maximize what Amur can carry within that smaller fairing, the Russian rocket will load itself with super-cooled propellant to maximize its fuel load. The payload Despite steps like these, however, it's clear Amur will be a less robust rocket than SpaceX's Falcons. At best, Amur will carry only about the payload of an ordinary United Launch Alliance Delta IV -- just 12.5 tons to Low Earth Orbit in a fully expendable configuration, or 10.5 tons reusable. For this reason, Roscosmos characterizes Amur as initially being only a "light-lift" or "medium-lift" rocket. The price That's not necessarily a bad thing. As Roscosmos future programs and science executive director Alexander Bloshenko explains, more than half of all commercial rocket launches today are light- and medium-lift -- a number he predicts will only grow over time. Accordingly, Bloshenko hopes to capture "a large part of commercial launches in the light and medium class." Helping it to capture the market will be a lower launch cost. Roscosmos envisions spending no more than $910 million developing Amur. By keeping a tight rein on costs and focusing on creating "a competitive commercial product," Bloshenko says Roscosmos will be able to charge just $22 million for launches, undercutting SpaceX's $62 million advertised price. If this proves accurate, Roscosmos could well steal away SpaceX's international business -- which in fact appears to be the goal. But SpaceX wouldn't be the only victim. For several years now, Boeing and Lockheed's ULA has been trying to build a commercial space business of its own to lessen its reliance on government contracts. ULA has made admirable progress in cutting costs already, and hopes to one day to launch its new Vulcan family of rockets for under $100 million. $22 million rocket launches from Roscosmos, however, could smother those hopes in their cradle. Things were bad enough when ULA only had to compete with reusable rockets from SpaceX. If a price war breaks out between SpaceX and Roscosmos, however, ULA's entirely expendable space business could become collateral damage. The timeline When will all of this happen? How soon do Boeing and Lockheed need to start worrying about Roscosmos? The company doesn't plan to conduct its first test flight until 2026 -- but Bloshenko is so confident in its success that he says the rocket will carry a payload "immediately" on this first test flight. With a price war in rocket launch breaking out, it would appear time is running out for ULA to invent a reusable rocket of its own. https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/10/18/boeing-lockheed-only-space-co-no-reusable-rockets/ RTCA free webinar: Modernizing the NAS October 21, 1pm ET Moderated by Gene Hayman of Collins Aerospace, the panel will discuss how government and industry are collaborating on defining the future frameworks to create a more dynamic airspace (NAS) that enables the new capabilities needed for integration of new entrants. The panel is followed by a Tech Talk: Air Traffic Control during COVID-19. REGISTER: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/4258446327551992590?source=Flight+Safety+Blog Curt Lewis