Flight Safety Information [October 20, 2020] [No. 212] In This Issue : Incident: LATAM Brazil A320 at Cuiaba on Oct 13th 2020, on approach loss of separation with private aircraft : ProSafeT - SMS, Quality & Audit Management Software : Cessna 310R - Landing Gear Collapse (Florida) : Person arrested after patrol aircraft is hit with laser light : Woman in her 30s dies of COVID-19 aboard airplane : 'Bad math': Leading expert challenges airlines' COVID-19 safety claims : Aeroflot Airlines crew members helped smuggle $50 million worth of stolen iPads, iPhones, and more into Russia, a government investigation has found : Armenian airspace deemed safe and controllable by European aviation authority : Seamless Air Alliance advances inflight connectivity innovation with new Release : Airbus pitches new trainer jet for Spain, but with eyes for Europe : THE AIR FORCE PILOT RETENTION CRISIS IS NOT OVER : Cathay Pacific to cut 6,000 jobs, axe Cathay Dragon brand : Qatar Airways expects to keep A380s parked for years : Space-station crew members just found an elusive air leak by watching tea leaves float in microgravity : MU-2 Aircraft - Accident Analysis Webinar : SCSI Online Courses - Aircraft Accident Investigation : RTCA - free webinar: Modernizing the NAS October 21, 1pm ET Incident: LATAM Brazil A320 at Cuiaba on Oct 13th 2020, on approach loss of separation with private aircraft A LATAM Brazil Airbus A320-200, registration PR-MYW performing flight LA-3368 from Sao Paulo Guarulhos,SP to Cuiaba,MT (Brazil) with 156 passengers and 6 crew, was on approach to Cuiaba's runway 35 when the separation between the A320 and a departing Piper PA-31 reduced below required minima. Both aircraft were able to continue to their destinations. Brazil's CENIPA rated the occurrence a serious incident and opened an investigation into the occurrence. http://avherald.com/h?article=4de12670&opt=0 Cessna 310R - Landing Gear Collapse (Florida) Date: 18-OCT-2020 Time: c. 12:10 LT Type: Silhouette image of generic C310 model; specific model in this crash may look slightly different Cessna 310R Owner/operator: Air Surgeon 1 LLC Registration: N258RJ C/n / msn: 310R0202 Fatalities: Fatalities: 0 / Occupants: 2 Other fatalities: 0 Aircraft damage: Substantial Location: Miami Executive Airport, FL (TMB/KTMB) - United States of America Phase: Landing Nature: Private Departure airport: Destination airport: Miami Executive Airport, FL (TMB/KTMB) Narrative: The aircraft's landing gear collapsed when landing on runway 09 at Miami Executive Airport (TMB/KTMB), Florida, resulting in a runway excursion. Both occupants escaped unhurt. https://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/244238 Person arrested after patrol aircraft is hit with laser light A person is in jail after a Washington State Patrol aircraft was hit with a laser light over Tumwater. The aircraft was helping locate an elderly man Thursday who had wandered away from caregivers when it happened, KING-TV reported. That man was found Friday morning, according to Tumwater police. It’s the latest incident of a dangerous practice that can have serious consequences, officials said. Lasers can blind a pilot temporarily, making them unable to see their instruments, and even lead to permanent eye damage. Disrupting a pilot is considered a serious threat to air safety. It’s a felony in Washington and violators can also be fined $11,000 per incident by the Federal Aviation Administration. WSP spokesperson Trooper Darren Wright said this was the sixth incident in a month involving the patrol’s aircraft. Like Thursday night, most of the incidents involving WSP aircraft have resulted in an arrest. Planes landing at Sea-Tac International Airport have also been hit with lasers while on final approach over the years. https://dnews.com/local/person-arrested-after-patrol-aircraft-is-hit-with-laser-light/article_5ef7ba0e-201c-5ae8-9750-ed8a5b0c4b23.html Woman in her 30s dies of COVID-19 aboard airplane Officials confirmed Sunday that a woman in her 30s died of the coronavirus while aboard an airplane awaiting takeoff in July, according to BuzzFeed News. The unidentified woman was having trouble breathing and was given oxygen before she died, according to NBC 5 Dallas–Fort Worth. It’s unclear if the Garland, Texas, resident was aware she was infected with the virus before boarding the aircraft, which was heading from Arizona to Texas. She did have underlying high-risk health conditions, according to release from Dallas County. Although the incident occurred three months ago, the Texas county wasn’t alerted that COVID-19 was the cause of death until a few days ago, Judge Clay Jenkins said Sunday. "I would strongly encourage people to not think they’re invincible from COVID because they don’t think they’re in a high-risk category," Jenkins said. It’s unclear which Arizona airport or airline was involved in the incident. Several coronavirus regulations have been put in place to safeguard air travel during the pandemic, including temperature screens and at some airports, COVID-19 testing. https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/521786-woman-in-her-thirties-dies-of-covid-19-aboard-airplane 'Bad math': Leading expert challenges airlines' COVID-19 safety claims PARIS – A campaign by pandemic-stricken aviation giants to persuade the world it’s safe to fly has been questioned by one of the very scientists on whose research it draws. Dr. David Freedman, a U.S. infectious diseases specialist, said he declined to take part in a recent presentation by global airline body IATA with plane-makers Airbus, Boeing and Embraer that cited his work. While he welcomed some industry findings as “encouraging,” Freedman said a key assertion about the improbability of catching COVID-19 on planes was based on “bad math.” Airlines and plane-makers are anxious to restart international travel, even as a second wave of infections and restrictions takes hold in many countries. The Oct. 8 media presentation listed in-flight infections reported in scientific studies or by IATA airlines, and compared the tally with total passenger journeys this year. “With only 44 identified potential cases of flight-related transmission among 1.2 billion travelers, that’s one case for every 27 million,” IATA medical adviser Dr David Powell said in a news release, echoing comments made during the event. IATA said its findings “align with the low numbers reported in a recently published peer-reviewed study by Freedman and Wilder-Smith.” But Freedman, who co-authored the paper in the Journal of Travel Medicine with Dr Annelies Wilder-Smith of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said he took issue with IATA’s risk calculation because the reported count bore no direct relation to the unknown real number of infections. “They wanted me at that press conference to present the stuff, but honestly I objected to the title they had put on it,” the University of Alabama academic told Reuters. “It was bad math. 1.2 billion passengers during 2020 is not a fair denominator because hardly anybody was tested. How do you know how many people really got infected?” he said. “The absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.” IATA believes its calculation remains a “relevant and credible” sign of low risk, a spokesman said in response to requests for comment from the industry body and its top medic Powell. “We’ve not claimed it’s a definitive and absolute number.” Wilder-Smith could not immediately be reached for comment. While the pandemic has seen some airlines leave middle seats empty to reassure customers, the industry has opposed making such measures mandatory. Plane cabins are considered lower-risk than many indoor spaces because of their powerful ventilation and their layout, with forward-facing passengers separated by seat rows. Ceiling-to-floor airflows sweep pathogens into high-grade filters. That understanding is supported by simulations and tests run by the aircraft makers, as well as a U.S. Defense Department study released Thursday. The joint presentation with all three manufacturers signaled a rare closing of ranks among industrial archrivals, behind a message designed to reassure. Sitting beside an infected economy passenger is comparable to seven-foot distancing in an office, Boeing tests concluded, posing an acceptably low risk with masks. Standard health advice often recommends a six-foot separation. Airbus showed similar findings, while Embraer tested droplet dispersal from a cough. Some 0.13% by mass ended up in an adjacent passenger’s facial area, falling to 0.02% with masks. But Dr. Henry Wu, associate professor at Atlanta’s Emory School of Medicine, said the findings were inconclusive on their own because the minimum infective dose of the virus remains unknown, and risks increase in step with exposure time. “It’s simply additive,” said Wu, who would prefer middle seats to be left empty. “A 10-hour flight will be 10 times riskier than a one-hour flight.” Nonetheless, a commercial jet cabin is “probably one of the safer public settings you can be in,” he added. “Sitting at a crowded bar for a few hours is going to be much riskier.” Scientists are poring over dozens of on-board infection cases, as well as flights with contagious passengers but no known transmission. In March, 11 infectious passengers on a five-hour Sydney to Perth flight passed the virus to 11 others, according to a paper in the Emerging Infectious Diseases journal. Among those infected, two were seated three rows away from a contagious passenger and one was six rows away, suggesting that typical two-row contact-tracing might have missed them. One sufferer on a 10-hour London to Hanoi flight the same month infected 16 others including 12 in her business-class cabin, according to a study by Vietnamese and Australian academics. “Long flights … can provide conditions for superspreader events,” the study said, adding that its findings “challenge” the airlines’ assertion that on-board distancing is unnecessary. IATA points out that many of the flights examined by scientists in published studies occurred before mask-wearing became widespread and reduced infection risks. Its presentation conceded that the 1-in-27 million statistic “may be an underestimate”, while maintaining that in-flight infections remained less likely than a lightning strike, even if only 10% of actual cases had made the count. “That’s misleading,” Emory’s Wu said. “Thinking about how hard it is to identify them, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s far less than 1%. The only thing I’m sure of is that it’s a fantastic underestimate.” https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/10/20/business/bad-math-leading-expert-challenges-airlines-covid-19-safety-claims/ Aeroflot Airlines crew members helped smuggle $50 million worth of stolen iPads, iPhones, and more into Russia, a government investigation has found A US investigation found current and former Aeroflot Airlines employees helped to smuggle $50 million in stolen electronic devices to Russia. The investigation, conducted by the FBI, Customs and Border Protection, the New York City Police Department, and other agencies, alleges 10 defendants of smuggling $50 million worth of electronic devices using current and former Aeroflot Airlines workers. The devices included iPhones, iPads, and Apple Watches. An inspection of crew members' luggage found millions of dollars of electronic devices, "many of which" had been stolen, per a release. Federal officers arrested eight leaders of the scheme Monday afternoon, while two others are fugitives. The Department of State has revoked 113 visas of Aeroflot employees in connection with the scheme. "As alleged, the defendants were members of an international smuggling ring that used a network of operators here and in Russia to circumvent US export laws and regulations," United States Attorney DuCharme stated in a release. The airline industry in particular has suffered from lost revenue and service this year as the COVID-19 pandemic stymied travel, per the International Air Transport Association. Aeroflot reported a loss of $485 million in August. Police in the UK had arrested another former flight attendant for dealing drugs after getting laid off. Aeroflot Airlines, one of the world's oldest carriers, is currently valued at $12.5 billion. Aeroflot Airlines did not immediately respond to Business Insider's request for comment. https://www.businessinsider.com/aeroflot-airlines-employees-50-million-smuggling-scheme-apple-iphone-ipad-2020-10 Armenian airspace deemed safe and controllable by European aviation authority YEREVAN, OCTOBER 20, ARMENPRESS. The European Union’s Aviation Safety Risk Assessment Group has recognized Armenia’s airspace as safe and controllable, the Armenian Civil Aviation Committee said in a news release. The committee said it has taken measures to ensure the safety of the Armenian airspace for civilian and humanitarian flights amid the war in Artsakh. The committee published 3 NOTAMs addressed to all airlines. The first notice is advising pilots to carry out extra risk assessment before flights in conditions of the ongoing military actions at the border. The second NOTAM warned pilots about the possibility of drones flying in Armenian airspace given the few Azeri airspace breaches using UAVs that happened over the course of the 3 weeks of fighting in Artsakh. The third NOTAM informs pilots about certain restrictions in the airspace, with some parts declared as no fly zones as safety precaution. EUROCONTROL and EASA have expressed their confidence in the Armenian aviation authority’s measures regarding implementation of obligations and ensuring safety. https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1032206.html Sumwalt Stresses Fitness for Duty at NBAA Safety Week National Transportation Safety Board chairman Robert Sumwalt highlights several concerns about fitness for duty, including remaining safe on the ground and in the air, during his discussion as part of NBAA's National Safety Forum. National Transportation Safety Board chairman Robert Sumwalt helped cap off NBAA’s week of virtual safety events with a message of the importance of taking precautions in the air and on the ground to ensure fitness for duty. Sumwalt spoke on the last day of NBAA’s Virtual Safety Week that brought online many of the events typically held in person during NBAA-BACE, including the Single-Pilot Safety Standdown and National Safety Forum as well as the association’s safety awards. In addition, Virtual Safety Week hosted a Safety Town Hall for the first time. The NTSB chair participated on October 9 during the National Safety Forum, which carried a theme of “Optimizing Your Personal Performance” and focused on fitness for duty for individuals and organizations through effective sleep management, as well as maintaining a healthy mind and healthy body. Sumwalt praised NBAA for continuing to host the event virtually and said even though there was a venue change, that did not diminish the quality of the events. He added that this year’s theme was “one of critical importance.” Four of the issues on the NTSB’s “Most Wanted List” of transportation safety improvements center on “ensuring the transportation workers are of sound, mind, body, and soul—basically being fit for duties,” he noted. These include reducing distractions, fatigue-related accidents, and alcohol and drug impairment in transportation, as well as ensuring medical fitness. Sumwalt in particular focused on drug impairment, pointing to a study released this year on the incidences of drugs found in the systems of pilots killed in aircraft crashes. That study updated a similar review conducted in 2014 and found the prevalence of drugs has trended upward. The original study looked at the toxicology results of fatally injured pilots from the years 1990 to 2012, while the most recently released study looked at 952 pilots fatally injured in aircraft crashes from 2013 to 2017. In 2012, 40 percent were found with at least one drug of any kind in their system. By 2017 that number had risen to almost 50 percent. Of the pilots examined in the most recent study, 28 percent tested positive for at least one potentially impairing drug, up from 23 percent in the 2014 study, and 15 percent tested positive with at least one drug that pointed to a potentially impairing condition, a 3 percent increase from 2014. Meanwhile, 10 percent were found to have a controlled substance in their system, up from 8 percent in 2014, and 5 percent tested positive for an illegal drug, up slightly from 4 percent in the 2014 study. Nearly half the pilots involved had an ATP or commercial pilot certificate, he said, but cautioned that does not necessarily mean they were operating in business aviation. He also cautioned that not all were potentially impairing or illegal drugs, noting many involved slower sedating antihistamines and other over-the-counter cold and allergy medication. He worried about those with potentially impairing drugs and/or conditions and said “it gets really concerning” with the controlled substances, which are not permitted. The same holds true, obviously for illicit drugs, the most common of which would be marijuana. The other issue he highlighted on the list was distractions. “These days in the cockpit, you've got a lot of distractions and potential distractions,” he said. But as attention focuses on that, he is concerned as well about distractions once the pilot leaves the aircraft—“once we close the aircraft door, close up the hangar, and we get into our car.” He asked how many pilots pick up the phone in the car to check emails, send a quick text message, or call home to say they are on the ground. The National Safety Council designated October as distracted driving awareness month, he pointed out, adding, “I'll tell you, I've met with a lot of families whose loved ones have been killed by a distracted driver.” His concern is that “we're all careful when it comes to flying airplanes,” but then pilots will get in the car and pick up the phone. Also, along the personal fitness line is the need to get help for mental and other health issues, he said, “I'll be willing to bet that most of us are just a teeny bit Type A, right? That's a trait that can help us, but it's a trait that can also work against us. And if you're like me, you really don't want to pick up the phone and ask for help—whether we're calling for mental health counseling, whether we're calling for family counseling, whether we're calling about physical ailments. The fact is it's difficult for us to pick up the phone.” But he stressed that resources are available to help pilots. While with the airlines, Sumwalt said pilots had access to an air medical office where they could call to discuss health-related concerns confidentially. Similar services are available to business aviation and should be used, he said. Peer-support programs can be equally important and should be something corporate operators consider, he said. He concluded by questioning whether business aviation organizations have provided enough resources to support the full care of an employee and whether the business aviation community, including NBAA, would consider the development of peer-support programs. https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/business-aviation/2020-10-19/sumwalt-stresses-fitness-duty-nbaa-safety-week Seamless Air Alliance advances inflight connectivity innovation with new Release The latest Release is set to revolutionize the airline and mobile network industries by enabling airlines to deploy open systems for inflight roaming California, USA, 20 October 2020: Following its publication of the world’s first inflight connectivity (IFC) standard earlier this year, Seamless Air Alliance, a global community of airlines and technology leaders driving solutions to advance inflight connectivity, today announced the completion of Seamless Release 2.0. This latest Release, available to Seamless Air Alliance members, defines the information provided by each network component, enabling suppliers to design and build OpenIFC products using the modular architecture and open interfaces from its first release. Developed by airline industry experts, OpenIFC is set to become the preferred choice for every airline going forward. “Seamless Release 2.0 completes the blueprint needed for the industry to scale the deployment of future-proof, OpenIFC systems,” said Jack Mandala, CEO of Seamless Air Alliance. “This breakthrough will allow airlines to purchase best-of-breed components in a multi-vendor ecosystem, improving the efficiency of deploying, operating, and maintaining inflight systems – which is especially important as recent events have highlighted the critical role of connectivity.” Seamless roaming presents a major monetization opportunity for Mobile Network Operators. In preparation for the official launch, Mandala was invited by GSMA to share some exclusive insight at today’s GSMA Wholesale Agreements and Solutions Group meeting. “Connectivity is a priority for countries around the world and we believe that mobile operators have an important role to provide seamless, cost-effective connectivity everywhere. Seamless roaming will allow operators to meet a far greater expectation that travelers now have for accessing robust inflight connectivity in a convenient manner.” said Hidebumi Kitahara, Vice President, Head of Global Business Strategy Division, Technology Unit, SoftBank Corp. Seamless Air Alliance has grown its membership significantly in recent months, welcoming several name organizations including American Airlines, Deutsche Telekom, International Airlines Group (IAG), SES, Telesat and Thales Group. Intelsat, an early member of the Seamless Air Alliance, recently announced a definitive agreement to acquire the commercial aviation business of Gogo, the largest global provider of in-flight broadband connectivity. Mark Richman, Intelsat's Director of Aero Products, said: “We have the opportunity to redefine the IFC ecosystem and passenger experience. Our open architecture network delivers unique value with the redundancy and resiliency needed to scale a premium internet service to every passenger, from gate to gate. We remain fully committed to the Seamless Air Alliance and its mission to develop exceptional standards for the commercial aero industry.” About Seamless Air Alliance The Seamless Air Alliance is pioneering a new era of inflight connectivity bringing industries and technologies together to make connectivity simple to access and delightful to use. Together the leading airlines and suppliers are defining open standards that connect passengers in a simple manner, provide airlines with flexible systems, and accelerate innovation and rapid upscaling within the industry. To learn more visit www.SeamlessAlliance.com. Airbus pitches new trainer jet for Spain, but with eyes for Europe STUTTGART, Germany – Airbus is pitching a new jet trainer package for the Spanish air force that industry executives hope could one day help school pilots across Europe on next-generation aircraft. The Airbus Future Jet Trainer, or AFJT, would replace Spain’s fleets of Northrop F-5M and CASA C-101 Aviojet aircraft around 2027 or 2028, Airbus officials told Defense News. While the concept has been in the works for several years, the company first revealed the official specifications late last week to Spanish media outlets. The company envisions the project as a multi-role, integrated trainer system, with room for growth as a potential light-attack or aggressor aircraft. Among its features is a live-virtual-constructive (LVC) training environment, and compatibility with ground-based training systems. Abel Nin, head of the AFJT program at Airbus, told Defense News the aircraft is designed with fighter characteristics of high maneuverability and speed, and the ability to emulate aircraft including the Eurofighter Typhoon and F/A-18 Hornet aircraft, as well as future systems. If selected, the AFJT plane could see its first flight around 2025, Nin said. Raúl Tena, Airbus' sales manager for combat aircraft, emphasized that the aircraft and associated training systems are being built with the Spanish air force’s requirements and timeline “as the starting point.” “From there, we believe that this aircraft should not only serve Spain, but should also serve Europe,” he said, citing France and Finland as potential future customers. Spain’s government has not yet allocated any funding toward a new trainer system, Airbus said. A budget is expected to be revealed by the end of 2020 or early 2021. The Spanish Ministry of Defense last year committed to buying 24 Pilatus PC-21 trainer jets, to begin replacing its 1980s-era C-101 aircraft. Airbus serves as the AFJT lead contractor in charge of design, assembly and integration. Other suppliers include: Indra for flight simulations and systems; Tecnobit for communications and machine-pilot interface systems; ITP Aero — the Spanish subsidiary of Rolls-Royce — supplying the engine; GMV providing software and flight systems; and Compañía Española de Sistemas Aeronáuticos S.A. (CESA) providing the landing gear and actuators. “We are launching [this program] with all of industry, trying to capture all of their inputs in a single contract,” Nin said. “The ambition is there” to have a fully Spanish industry team, he added. Airbus anticipates that there are between 500 to 800 trainer aircraft around the globe to be replaced within the next decade. “We cannot deny that there is a good opportunity” to capture part of that market, Tena said. Since Spain has signed on as a partner in the Franco-German-led Future Combat Air System program to build Europe’s next-generation fighter jet, Airbus also sees an opportunity for the AFJT to be that program’s trainer. However, no final decisions have been made as to which country will build the FCAS trainer yet, Nin said. https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2020/10/19/airbus-pitches-new-trainer-jet-for-spain-but-with-eyes-for-europe/ THE AIR FORCE PILOT RETENTION CRISIS IS NOT OVER Last year, the Air Force reported a growing shortage of pilots. While the service estimated that it needed 21,000 pilots to carry out the missions identified in the National Defense Strategy, it could only muster 18,900. When the Air Force had a 1,500 pilot shortage in 2017, the previous Air Force chief of staff called it a “crisis.” In fact, the current Air Force Chief of Staff, Gen. Charles Brown, already believes the Air Force’s combat edge over its competitors is thin and shrinking. The pilot shortage, a result of low retention, creates a negative feedback loop that only exacerbates the problem. Some in the Air Force may assume that the service’s pilot manning problems may be over due to the recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. During recessions, Air Force pilots are less likely to leave the service for jobs with commercial airlines. As expected, airline pilot hiring went to almost zero when the pandemic began, and Air Force pilot separations and airline hiring are strongly correlated. This time is different, though, as demographic and licensing trends for airline pilots will significantly shorten the period before companies start recruiting military pilots again. Unprepared, the Air Force has not implemented any fresh retention ideas since 2018, when it half-heartedly attempted, and then quickly aborted, a fly-only technical track program for its mobility pilots. Instead, it chose to focus on training more pilots to replace those leaving active-duty. I have three recommendations that will enhance the offer the Air Force can make to its pilots to stay in the service longer: strengthen the role of commanders in the retention process, target retention initiatives towards junior pilots, and offer more career agency at the outset of a pilot’s military service. Not every pilot will stay, nor should they. But, for those on the fence or leaning in, these changes might be enough to keep more of them. The Airlines Are Down But Not Out Historically, when the economy goes into recession, travel slows, and the airlines cease to hire many new pilots until several years into the recovery. While bad for the country, the military services usually enjoy higher pilot retention rates. In the past, when the U.S. economy tanked, and airline pilot hiring collapsed, Air Force pilots found themselves with fewer civilian alternatives for their unique talents. The last major pilot retention crisis began in the late 1990s and ended only in 2001 with the recession and 9/11. After that, the Air Force enjoyed healthy retention rates for over a decade until the most recent crisis began. When the Covid-19 pandemic struck, decimating airline travel and the global economy, it seemed reasonable to believe that the Air Force’s pilot-manning woes were rapidly coming to an end. Without airline jobs waiting for them, more pilots will remain in the military to ride out the economic storm. The civilian sector’s demand for military pilots is in a lull, for now, but it will rage when it reawakens. The airlines have a rapidly aging population of pilots to replace soon. In 2014, when airline pilot hiring began to accelerate, and Air Force pilot retention began to slip, there were 15,733 pilots within five years of the federal age limit of 65 — 2019 concluded with 21,292. The Federal Aviation Administration complicated the Air Force’s retention situation in 2013 when it increased the requirements to be an airline pilot from 250 flight hours to 1,500 hours, an astronomically expensive threshold for civilians to attain. The requirement for military pilots was waived to 750 hours, an easily attainable mark for Air Force pilots, thus making them even more attractive to airlines. Of course, it’s possible that a COVID-19 vaccine fails to materialize, and airline travel doesn’t return to pre-pandemic levels for many years. That scenario seems unlikely considering there are 45 clinical trials for vaccines currently ongoing and recent Department of Defense research shows that airline travel can be accomplished with a low risk of exposure to COVID-19. The Air Force has a narrow window, probably no more than three years, to improve retention rates before airline hiring picks back up. Retaining Pilots in the Air Force The Air Force should take concrete steps to increase pilot retention now. Given the uncertainty of defense budgets during recessions, these efforts should minimize cost. My three recommendations are as follows. First, the Air Force should restore trust in its aviation bonus program, the mechanism by which pilots commit to additional years of service in exchange for money, by centering it around the pilot-commander relationship. Second, the Air Force needs Congress’ help to change the National Defense Authorization Act to allow younger pilots to make service commitments earlier and receive aviation bonus retention payments sooner. Third, the Air Force can enhance its junior pilots’ career satisfaction by allowing them to commit to additional active duty service in the future for their preferred first assignment. Empower Squadron Commanders to Be Honest Brokers Squadron commanders are in the best position to present the aviation bonus retention contract and honestly discuss its implications with their pilots. The squadron commander is the only person who straddles the line between the senior leadership who make policy and the pilots doing the day-to-day work. The squadron commander is the leader that pilots trust most because they know their pilots and their families as well as their pilots’ career desires and feelings about the Air Force. But right now, the squadron commander is cut out of the process. The way I got my aviation bonus offer was the same way every pilot, combat systems officer, and air battle manager got theirs: via a robo-email from Air Force Personnel Command. The Air Force asked me to consider a significant life commitment of three to 12 years in exchange for a modest sum of money, putting the onus on me to complete the necessary administrative steps to accept the contract. My commander was not formally involved in the process until I decided to accept the retention contract, at which point I had to track him down to sign in concurrence. That was it. He was never even notified that I was eligible for the aviation bonus or provided the program’s annual details. Congress and the Air Force brand this rated officer retention incentive as a bonus — it’s not. It’s a labor contract complete with terms, conditions, considerations, and contingency clauses. Marketing the program as a bonus creates perceptions of ingratitude in senior leaders when pilots don’t take it. Who would refuse a bonus? The difference is that when civilians receive their annual bonus, they can quit the next day. Despite what it’s called, the aviation bonus program is no bonus. In turn, pilots cynically joke that aviation bonus payments are “blood money,” tainted and dirty from corrupting oneself. A tad melodramatic? Indeed, but that’s what many pilots think. Unfortunately, this toxic attitude infects others and can complicate the decisions of those considering the aviation bonus offer. The perception gap of the aviation bonus program between the Air Force and its pilots is a serious problem. The service needs more honesty to rebuild trust and rehabilitate the aviation bonus program. Trust won’t come from Air Force leaders with stars on their shoulders, and it won’t come through offering the retention contract via an impersonal mass email. It will only come from a pilot’s squadron commander. Air Force Personnel Command should not be making aviation bonus offers. Instead, the Air Staff and Air Force Personnel Command should be empowering and supporting a process that puts the pilot-commander relationship at the center instead of on the periphery. Every signed aviation bonus retention contract is an occasion to be celebrated. It deserves recognition because it represents a pilot’s renewed commitment to the country and increased lethality and readiness for the Air Force. Strengthen the Aviation Bonus Program by Offering It Early Offering the aviation bonus earlier in a pilot’s career can dramatically increase the program’s financial value for many junior pilots without changing the contract amounts. Congress should lift the timing restriction on the aviation bonus payments so the Air Force can offer its younger pilots financial assistance and lock in service commitments early. This timing shift also helps the Air Force seize an information advantage by extending the aviation bonus offer years before its pilots begin flirting with Delta, United, and American Airlines. Individuals differ, but generally, money now is almost always more valuable than money later. By the time Air Force pilots become eligible for the aviation bonus program, as majors with 11 years of service, they are already making around $130,000 annually. Providing the aviation bonus to junior pilots gives them the option to use the money earlier or save it for later. At present, pilots, even ones with every intention of remaining on active-duty for twenty years, have to wait to extend their commitments and delay access to the aviation bonus payments. Through the National Defense Authorization Act, Congress controls both the cap and the timing of aviation bonus payments. The bill currently restricts payments until pilots are within a year of completing their initial service commitment. But Congress could leverage much more value from the aviation bonus program by shifting disbursements to a more advantageous time. Instead, it has allowed aviation bonus payments to atrophy in value. From 2000 to 2016, Congress capped aviation bonus payments at $25,000, allowing inflation to eat 27 percent of its value in that period. Congress raised the limit to its current level of $35,000 in 2017, but that didn’t wholly restore its value. Not enough pilots signed aviation bonus contracts in 2000 and 2001 in the middle of the last pilot retention crisis, so there’s little reason to think today’s pilots would sign up for less. Increasing the bonus would help retention, sure, but Congress can also strengthen the financial value of the current aviation bonus program by merely allowing the military branches to make payments earlier in a pilot’s career in exchange for service later. It should not matter when the military branches make aviation bonus payments to retain pilots so long as the taxpayer gets paid back in years of active-duty time later. The sooner pilots can make extended commitments, the more predictability and stability the Air Force will have. We can look at the U.S government’s practices to get a sense of how timing changes money’s value. The Department of Defense currently uses a discount rate of 6.75 percent to calculate a lump sum for retirees who wish to take a fraction of their pensions upfront. In simplest terms, for a $10,000 pension payment owed next year, the Department of Defense discounts the amount and offers the retiree $9,325 today to settle the claim, an amount equal to 6.75 percent less. This year, a $35,000 aviation bonus payment would have been worth $48,000 in 2015, a 37 percent increase in value using the same Department of Defense discount rate. The value of earlier payments could be even higher, depending on the individual. An American Economic Review study found the average discount rate for military officers to be 10 to 13 percent. Officers with personal discount rates in that range would value a $35,000 aviation bonus payment made five years earlier to be between $56,000 to $64,000, a bump of 60 to 82 percent. At first glance, those figures seemed implausibly high to me. Then again, my family had our largest expenses when I was a young pilot, our budget was tighter, and I earned far less than I do now. The aviation bonus payments would have been a lot more useful to me then. Loosening the timing restriction alleviates another major challenge: routine delays in defense authorization and appropriations legislation. For example, Congress did not approve the FY 2020 National Defense Authorization Act until December 2019, nearly the end of the first quarter. That left the Air Force scrambling to put together the terms of its aviation bonus offer, which it did not release until January 2020. The delayed timing allowed all pilots with commitment dates ending in FY 2020 to apply for separation and airline jobs before the Air Force could get its retention contract offer on the table. Most military transition programs recommend that service members exiting the force begin their job search process 24 months in advance, meaning that pilots are likely making retention decisions one to two years before the Air Force can offer its aviation bonus contracts to them. Create an Assignment-for-Service Exchange at Pilot Training Pilot retention should begin as soon as possible with the Air Force offering incentives early in an officer’s career, starting with pilot training. Career paths are heavily dependent on the aircraft and mission assigned at pilot training. Some opportunities open up when we join a community like mobility, rescue, special operations, or fighters. Still, many other options close, and with few exceptions, pilots can rarely change specialties. Instead of targeting retention efforts towards dissatisfied pilots eligible to leave the military, the Air Force needs to give career agency to its student pilots who are most willing to stay longer. Nearly every student pilot has some inkling of what they want to fly in the Air Force. Some pilots have dreams of strapping themselves to a rocket, lighting the candle, and going Mach 2 in an F-16. Mine was to fly helicopters low-level in the middle of the night. Others want to fly C-17s to see the world. There is just as much variety of thought about duty locations. Japan and Germany are as appealing to some as being closer to home in the United States is to others. The Air Force uses a fair system to match student pilots to their first assignment using class rank. The highest-ranked pilot gets their most desired assignment of what’s available, the second-ranked pilot gets their most preferred assignment of what remains, and so on until the last-ranked pilot gets what is left. This assignment match process is a sound system because it incentivizes student pilots to study hard and give a high level of effort in their training. The problem is that with all the possible combinations of aircraft and bases, not all of the assignments will be available to every student pilot. Luck plays an outsized role. What about the truly motivated and qualified student who wants to fly a particular aircraft, say the F-35, but it wasn’t available to their class or a higher-ranked classmate got it? Tough break, right? What if that inspired student were willing to commit an additional 3 or 5 years of service beyond the 10 years already owed to the Air Force? The Air Force could allow commitment to be a factor in the assignment match process. Pilots with strong desires for their assignment and a willingness to serve additional years to get a higher-ranked choice gives the Air Force stability and a greater return on the enormous investment required to develop a combat-ready pilot. This idea may seem outrageous at first glance, but the Army already does this through its Career Satisfaction Program. In 2005, as a response to atrocious retention rates among its junior officers, the Army revamped the way it matched cadets to their initial assignment by creating pathways to shape their Army careers. The Career Satisfaction Program offers a suite of incentives to cadets most desirous of career control. Cadets can offer three-year service contracts to the Army in exchange for branch or duty station preference, and until 2014 could also select a future graduate school opportunity. What the Army found was the eager willingness of cadets to trade future service for career agency. In the first four years of the Career Satisfaction Program, 5,698 West Point and Reserve Officer Training Corps cadets, 42 percent of the eligible population, took at least one of the three options guaranteeing the Army an additional 17,596 years of service without spending a dime. The only bill to be paid was for the graduate school option holders who would return to the Army with an extended commitment after completing a master’s program. The Career Satisfaction Program is here to stay, Army program managers reported to me, because it significantly boosts officer retention. Considering the Army’s experience, there is likely a sizable proportion of Air Force student pilots who would make a commitment on top of their 10-year service obligation to trade-up for a more desirable first assignment, either aircraft or base, or both. The Air Force should study the Army’s assignment allocation mechanism to figure out how to keep pilots motivated at pilot training and offer more career control to those who want it the most. As things stand now, the Air Force leaves a lot of years of commitment and increased pilot satisfaction on the table with how it does assignment matches at pilot training. Conclusion The pandemic-induced recession did not fix the Air Force’s pilot retention problems — it masked them. Airlines will be back and will be coming for military pilots soon, but the Air Force isn’t hostage to industry business cycles. The service has more sway than it realizes to influence pilots to stay for longer military careers, but it will have to change some legacy processes. The Air Force should center the aviation bonus program around the squadron commander, offer aviation bonus contracts earlier in a pilot’s career, and increase junior pilots’ career agency. The good news is that these moves would not require additional funding. Apart from a small change in defense authorization language, the Air Force can easily implement these recommendations without congressional or Department of Defense coordination and without impacting the ability of its major commands, like Air Combat Command and Air Mobility Command, to utilize their combat pilots as needed. These reforms would, however, strengthen the Air Force’s relationship with its fighting men and women and do more to recognize their worth to the organization. https://warontherocks.com/2020/10/the-air-force-pilot-retention-crisis-is-not-over/ Cathay Pacific to cut 6,000 jobs, axe Cathay Dragon brand (Reuters) - Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd <0293.HK> will cut around 6,000 jobs, or 18% of its workforce, and axe regional brand Cathay Dragon to help it weather the coronavirus pandemic, the South China Morning Post reported on Tuesday, citing sources. The airline said in June it was reviewing its strategy in light of the travel downturn, with "tough decisions" to be announced during the fourth quarter and analysts expected it would announce major job cuts. That month the Hong Kong government also led a $5 billion rescue package for the airline, which has been burning through around HK$1.5 billion ($193.55 million) to HK$2 billion of cash a month. The South China Morning Post said the airline was expected to announce the job cuts on Wednesday, adding the figure had been reduced from 8,000 layoffs after government intervention. The newspaper, citing unidentified sources, said the airline will sacrifice Cathay Dragon but staff and resources of the two airlines would be merged. Cathay declined to comment. The airline last month said it would not apply for further government employment subsidies for its main business units, allowing it to make job cuts at Cathay Pacific and Cathay Dragon, though not at budget carrier HK Express. Cathay had refrained from major job cuts but Singapore Airlines Ltd has announced plans to cut around 20% of positions, while Australia's Qantas Airways Ltd has said it will cut nearly 30% of its pre-pandemic staff. Cathay has sent around 40% of its passenger fleet to less humid locations outside Hong Kong for storage. On Monday, the airline said it expected to operate less than 50% of its pre-pandemic passenger flight capacity in 2021. Passenger numbers in September fell 98.1% compared with a year earlier due to border closures, though cargo carriage was down by only 36.6%. https://www.yahoo.com/news/cathay-pacific-cut-6-000-092804254.html Qatar Airways expects to keep A380s parked for years DUBAI (Reuters) - Qatar Airways does not expect to use its Airbus A380s for at least the next two years, its chief executive said on Monday, longer than a previous projection for the superjumbos to possibly return to service in 2021. The state-owned airline has parked its 10 A380s due to the devastating impact of the coronavirus crisis on travel demand. "We don't think we are going to operate our A380s for at least the next couple of years," Akbar al-Baker told an online conference. He had said in June the jets would remain parked until at least the middle of next year. The Gulf carrier plans to start retiring its A380s from 2024 when its oldest superjumbo reaches ten years of service. The A380s would return once the airline saw the growth rate of 2019, before the pandemic struck, Baker said. The 100 destinations to which the airline is currently flying is 25 fewer than planned due to a new wave of infections in Europe and travel restrictions, he said. Baker criticised rivals operating the A380 as "foolish", saying there was insufficient demand and so prices would be driven down. Air France retired its A380s this year, while British Airways and Qantas retired their Boeing 747s as the crisis sent air travel into free fall. Gulf carrier Etihad Airways is mulling whether its parked A380 fleet will ever return, while Emirates, the largest superjumbo operator, has resumed some services with the jet. https://www.yahoo.com/news/qatar-airways-expects-keep-a380-114918563.html Space-station crew members just found an elusive air leak by watching tea leaves float in microgravity The International Space Station has been leaking an unusual amount of air for more than a year. A cosmonaut finally found the leak by releasing tea leaves to float freely in the station's Russian side. He saw them cluster near a crack on the wall. The crew has temporarily patched the leak with tape, but it may not hold for long. Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories. The International Space Station has been leaking an unusual amount of air since September 2019. At first, crew members held off on troubleshooting the issue, since the leak wasn't major. But in August, the leak rate increased, prompting astronauts and cosmonauts on board the orbiting laboratory to start trying to locate its source in earnest. Roscosmos, Russia's space agency, announced on Thursday that crew members had finally pinpointed the leak's location after devising an unusual test: They let tea leaves guide their search. Cosmonaut Anatoly Ivanishin released a few leaves from a tea bag in the transfer chamber of the Zvezda Service Module – the section of the station's Russian segment that houses a kitchen, sleeping quarters, and bathroom. Then the crew sealed the chamber off by closing its hatches, and monitored the tea leaves on video cameras as they floated in microgravity. The leaves slowly floated toward a scratch in the wall near the module's communication equipment – evidence that it was a crack through which air was escaping. The crew has since patched the leak using Kapton tape, Roscosmos reported on Monday. A year-long air leak on the space station The International Space Station always leaks a little air. Normally, resupply missions carry highly pressurized containers full of a mix of oxygen and nitrogen to replace the air the ISS loses. The mix is designed to mimic Earth's breathable air. But in September 2019, the standard leak rate increased slightly. That wasn't considered any major risk, but in August 2020, that already elevated rate increased fivefold, from 0.6 to 3.1 pounds of air per day, according to Russian news agency Ria Novosti. So over the last two months, crew members hunted for the leak by isolating sections of the station and monitoring their pressure changes. At first, crew members hunkered down in the Zvezda module while they tested the ship's other sections; when they couldn't find evidence of leaks in those sections, they determined the leak was likely in Zvezda itself. Eventually, the astronauts and cosmonauts narrowed the source to Zvezda's transfer chamber. But they still couldn't find the leak's exact location. Then came the tea-leaf trick. "We believe that we have really identified the probable leakage area," Ivanishin said, according to Russian news agency TASS. The tape the crew put over the crack can remain stable and sticky across a wide range of temperatures, including the near-absolute zero of space. But the members don't think the tape is likely to hold for long; they hope to replace it with a more reliable patch soon. "Perhaps we should try hard patches our partners have? We can talk with them. This is because the current patch is not so efficient," one crew member said, according to TASS. Roscosmos did not respond to Business Insider's questions in time for publication, but the agency noted in a tweet that it is "working out a program of operations to permanently seal the leak location." NASA spokesperson Daniel Huot told Business Insider that the leak "continues to pose no immediate danger to the crew at the current leak rate." Not the first problem on the space station's Russian side The leak is one of several recent issues on the space station, which is starting to show its age after outlasting its 15-year life expectancy by five years. The station's Russian segment houses some of the station's oldest modules. In the last few months, it has seen a toilet go bust and temperatures mysteriously increase. Then on Wednesday, the segment's oxygen supply system broke down. Crew members fixed the system by Saturday, according to Roscosmos. But in aggregate, the failures are indications that the Russian side of the ISS is probably in need of upgrades. "All modules of the Russian segment are exhausted," cosmonaut Gennady Padalka told Ria Novosti. This latest leak also wasn't the first on the Russian side. In August 2018, crew members discovered a 2-millimeter drill hole in part of a Russian Soyuz spaceship that was docked to the station. The hole seemed to stem from a manufacturing defect; someone on Earth had apparently plugged it with paint, hoping nobody would notice. The paint, it appeared, later broke off. Cosmonauts eventually patched that hole with epoxy sealant. https://www.yahoo.com/news/space-station-crew-members-just-213100243.html MU-2 Aircraft - Accident Analysis Webinar ACCIDENT ANALYSIS WEBINAR Live virtual presentation by Pat Cannon SESSION 1 Thursday, October 22, 2020 @ 4:00PM (CST) SESSION 2 Saturday, October 24, 2020 @ 4:00PM (CST) Registration is open! Free Admission REGISTER HERE The Accident Analysis Webinar is an extraordinary live virtual event featuring an accident at Centennial Airport in Denver, Colorado in 2004. During this webinar, you will take an in-depth look at the circumstances and decisions that lead up to this accident. As a webinar attendee, you will have an opportunity to provide your opinions via polling and participate in a Q&A discussion. We will also discuss recently developed technology that could prevent similar accidents in the future. "I am fascinated by the important decisions leading up to this accident and how recent developments could have altered the outcome. I am looking forward to seeing all of you at this live webinar and forging ahead with our mission to promote the MU-2 flight-safety culture!" Pat Cannon - MU-2 Pilot, Instructor, and Webinar Presenter RTCA free webinar: Modernizing the NAS October 21, 1pm ET Moderated by Gene Hayman of Collins Aerospace, the panel will discuss how government and industry are collaborating on defining the future frameworks to create a more dynamic airspace (NAS) that enables the new capabilities needed for integration of new entrants. The panel is followed by a Tech Talk: Air Traffic Control during COVID-19. REGISTER: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/4258446327551992590?source=Flight+Safety+Blog Curt Lewis