Flight Safety Information [November 11, 2020] [No. 228] In This Issue : Report: Iran A319 at Tabriz on Oct 7th 2020, landed on wrong runway : Incident: Iran AT72 at Tehran on Nov 10th 2020, engine shut down in flight : Incident: Wasaya DH8A at Pickle Lake on Oct 19th 2020, engine shut down in flight : Current Study on Pireps Needs Pilot Input : Troubled 737 Max Nearing Takeoff As FAA Review Of Jetliner Nearly Complete : Atlantic Coast Air Services Joins the Air Charter Safety Foundation and ASAP : AIRCRAFT MAINTENANCE: WHEN TO OVERHAUL AN ALTERNATOR : 5G Networks Could Pose a ‘Major Risk’ to Your Airplane’s Radar, a New Report Says : The FAA Needs to Address Competency and Training Gaps in Workforce, GAO Says : Woman Strips on Plane, Forces Flight to Divert : Delta Air Lines Sees Cash Burn Rate Edging Closer To Neutral : Canada Prepares Federal Aid For Airlines Under One Condition : Boeing wins zero new orders, delivers few jets and sees 737 MAX backlog shrink : Southwest is reportedly looking to acquire up to 30 Boeing 737 Max jets even though many travelers say they don't want to fly on the troubled plane : SpaceX Crew Dragon rolls out to pad for Crew-1 astronaut launch for NASA : Royal Aeronautical Society Webinar - AI and Machine Learning in Airborne Systems : Impact of COVID-19 on Aviation & Fatigue Survey (Round 1) Report: Iran A319 at Tabriz on Oct 7th 2020, landed on wrong runway An Iran Air Airbus A319-100, registration EP-IEP performing flight IR-449 from Isfahan to Tabriz (Iran) with 97 passengers and 9 crew, was on a VOR/DME 1 approach to Tabriz's runway 12L and was cleared to land on runway 12L, however, touched down and rolled out on runway 12R. Tower made the crew aware of landing on the wrong runway after roll out, the crew apologized. A similar occurrence had happened earlier the year, see Incident: Iran AT72 at Tabriz on Feb 10th 2020, landed on wrong runway. Iran's CAO released their final report in Person only (Editorial Note: To serve the purpose of global prevention of the repeat of causes leading to an occurrence an additional timely release of all occurrence reports in the only world spanning aviation language English would be necessary, a Persian only release does not achieve this purpose as set by ICAO annex 13 and just forces many aviators to waste much more time and effort each in trying to understand the circumstances leading to the occurrence. Aviators operating internationally are required to read/speak English besides their local language, investigators need to be able to read/write/speak English to communicate with their counterparts all around the globe). The report concludes the probable cause of the serious incident was: Captain's Error. Contributing was the first officer's error and poor judgement with respect to organizatorical factors. The CAO reported the captain was pilot monitoring, the first officer pilot flying. The crew received clearance to land on runway 12L. The crew focussed on another incoming Mahan flight while conducting the approach, as result both crew forgot their landing clearance had been issued for 12L. There was no communication between the two crew to verify their landing clearance and the runway ahead. The crew realized only after landing and the warning by tower, that they had landed on the wrong runway. The CAO analysed the flight was the crew's third flight of the day. The captain had been called in out of stand by for unscheduled duty after having had just 10 hours of rest, in violation of the company's planning requirements. Following the flight the captain was asked for his license and presented wrong (outdated) papers, he had forgotten to take the correct papers with him (but was properly licensed). The first flight of the day, Tehran to Tabriz, flown by the captain, had been cleared to land on and landed on Tabriz's runway 12R after requesting runway 12R. Usually Tabriz uses concrete runway 12L/30R for landings and asphalt runway 12R/30L for departures. On departure to Isfahan the crew requested runway 12L for departure due to the aircraft weight and departed from runway 12L. On the third flight, captain being pilot monitoring, ATC used the default runway 12L for landing, the crew did not put in a request for runway 12R. At the time the crew discussed another Mahan flight on approach to Tabriz, Tabriz Approach indicated landing runway 12L to both aircraft. Based on the mindset of the previous flights the crew approached runway 12R but forgot to request the runway and forgot their landing clearance had been for runway 12L. The pilot flying did not pay sufficient attention to the communication between pilot monitoring and ATC, the pilot monitoring mistook the clearance to land on 12L as clearance to land on 12R. Weather did not have any effect on the incident. Both pilots demonstrated weaknesses in Cockpit Resource Management, Cockpit Management and Task Sharing and as result lost Situational Awareness. http://avherald.com/h?article=4df02e61&opt=0 Incident: Iran AT72 at Tehran on Nov 10th 2020, engine shut down in flight An Iran Air Avions de Transport Regional ATR-72-212A, registration EP-ITB performing flight IR-3415 from Tehran Mehrabad to Dezful (Iran) with 34 passengers and 7 crew, was climbing out of Mehrabad's runway 29L when the crew stopped the climb at 9000 feet due to the right hand engine having failed. The crew shut the engine down and feathered the propeller. According to a passenger video a steady orange glow appeared at the engine exhaust for some time and disappeared again. The aircraft entered a hold doing two racetracks and returned to Mehrabad for a safe landing on runway 29L about 26 minutes after departure. Iran's CAO reported an engine suffered a technical malfunction in rainy conditions and was shut down. The crew declared emergency and returned to Tehran for a safe landing. Iran's Accident Investigation have opened an investigation. The passengers were taken to Dezful by a replacement aircraft. A replacement ATR-72-212A registration EP-ITF reached Dezful with a delay of 3.5 hours. http://avherald.com/h?article=4df04578&opt=0 Incident: Wasaya DH8A at Pickle Lake on Oct 19th 2020, engine shut down in flight A Wasaya Airways de Havilland Dash 8-100, registration C-FABA performing flight WT-815 from Big Trout Lake,ON to Pickle Lake,ON (Canada) with 3 people on board, was enroute about 66nm north of Pickle Lake when the crew received a brief master caution light. The crew subsequently observed the oil pressure indication for the right hand engine (PW120A) was fluctuating between 40 and 50 psi. The crew referenced the relevant checklists and decided to shut the engine down although the oil pressure remained above 40 psi. The crew continued to Pickle Lake for a safe landing on single engine. The Canadian TSB reported maintenance replaced the oil cooler due to leakage and submitted a service difficulty report. http://avherald.com/h?article=4df03bba&opt=0 Current Study on Pireps Needs Pilot Input PEGASAS looks at the use and future of pilot reports in flight. Project 33 looks at the future use of augmented reality to help pilots visualize clouds and convective weather. PEGASAS, is not just another aviation-weather acronym—it stands for the Partnership to Enhance General Aviation Safety, Accessibility, and Sustainability, an FAA Center of Excellence for General Aviation. Amongst the long list of efforts produced by PEGASAS has been Project 4, Wx Technology in the Cockpit (WTIC), which concluded in August 2018. Project 4 collected information from weather providers and pilots to define the factors that play into weather-related accidents, and the ways that pilot alerts, decision making, and the presentation of information contributed to those factors. A demonstrator tool, WILD, was developed to show the effects of weather information latency and alerting systems, and education on using the tool was delivered as well. Project 4 is the parent project out of which another weather-related project was borne, Project 33, the Advanced Wx Information Project (AWIP)—and one of its goals is to " is to increase the use, quality and reliability of pireps (or pilot reports) of weather conditions experienced through flight," according to the PEGASAS website. The use of augmented reality to drive three-dimensional visualization of cloud formation—particularly in convective environments—should help pilots to understand and mitigate the challenges associated with flying in these environments. Flying spoke with Mel Futrell, a California-based pilot working with the FAA via Purdue University on a variety of the projects under the PEGASAS umbrella. “We have a current study concerning technology and pirep use and behavior, and I have a survey to query the GA public to this effect.” The data will be used to understand how to improve the ability of pilots to collect and process weather data. Please consider participating in the online survey on pireps available at this link. The survey will take approximately 10 minutes. The Florida Institute of Technology and Purdue University appreciate as many pilots as possible participating in the survey between now and the end of November 2020. https://www.flyingmag.com/story/news/pireps-study-needs-pilot-input/ Troubled 737 Max Nearing Takeoff As FAA Review Of Jetliner Nearly Complete The Federal Aviation Administration is getting closer to allowing Boeing's troubled 737 Max commercial jetliner to fly passengers again. FAA chief Stephen Dickson says his agency "is in the final stages of reviewing the proposed changes to the Boeing 737 Max," adding that the agency could complete its evaluation of the fixes "in coming days" and allow the plane to return to service. Reuters is reporting that the plane could be recertified by the FAA as soon as Nov. 18. Aviation authorities around the world, including the FAA, grounded the 737 Max in March 2019, after a 737 Max operated by Ethiopian Airlines crashed, killing all 157 people on board. It was the second deadly Max crash in less than five months. A Lion Air max jet crashed in Indonesia on Oct. 29, 2018, killing all 189 people on the plane. Both crashes were blamed on a flawed flight control system that, based on erroneous data, repeatedly forced the planes into nose dives that the pilots could not control. Boeing and the FAA have both been widely criticized for how the 737 Max was developed and initially certified. A lengthy congressional inquiry found "a disturbing pattern of technical miscalculations and troubling management misjudgments" by Boeing and "grossly insufficient oversight by the FAA." That and other investigations found a "culture of concealment" at Boeing, and many critics say the airplane manufacturer rushed the development of the 737 Max, cutting corners along the way as management pressured engineers, putting profits over safety. Boeing initially downplayed the system's flaws and suggested pilot error was more responsible for the first crash. An FAA analysis found that additional crashes were probable if nothing were done to fix the flight control system, but nonetheless, the agency allowed the plane to keep flying while the FAA issued an alert to pilots and Boeing tried to come up with fixes. After the Ethiopian crash, the FAA was among the last aviation safety regulators in the world to ground the aircraft. Boeing has spent the past two years developing software fixes for the automated system and addressing other problems with the 737 Max. Administrator Dickson, a former Delta Air Lines pilot and executive, has said repeatedly that he would not sign off on recertifying the Max until he flew the plane himself, reviewed the fixes and felt comfortable putting his own family on the plane. Dickson piloted Max jet on a test flight out of Boeing Field in Seattle back on Sept. 30, putting it through a variety of maneuvers and scenarios to test how the flight control system would respond. He told reporters afterwards: "I liked what I saw ... it responded well." Regulators in Canada, Europe and elsewhere are conducting their own safety analyses of Boeing's fixes to the 737 Max and have completed test flights. Patrick Ky, executive director of the European Union's Aviation Safety Agency, said last month that he is satisfied with the technical changes Boeing has made to the 737 Max, telling Bloomberg, "Our analysis is showing that this is safe, and the level of safety reached is high enough for us." European approval for the commercial jetliner to fly passengers again is expected before the end of the year. https://www.npr.org/2020/11/10/933444840/troubled-737-max-nearing-takeoff-as-faa-review-of-jetliner-nearly-complete Atlantic Coast Air Services Joins the Air Charter Safety Foundation and ASAP Air Charter Safety Foundation The Atlantic Coast Air Services (atlanticcoast.aero), a leading provider of air cargo transportation services based in the Reading, Pennsylvania area, has joined the non-profit Air Charter Safety Foundation and its Aviation Safety Action Program (ASAP). The ACSF (acsf.aero) provides an array of programs for its 240 members, enabling them to achieve the highest levels of safety in personal, charter and business aviation. Ted Fergus, Chief Pilot for Atlantic Coast Air Services, said that the Aviation Safety Action Program is particularly important to his company’s strategic vision. “Because we believe that honesty and open communication around the topic of safety are critical to mitigating the risks inherent in aviation operations, we see the ASAP as a key for us,” he noted. The ASAP is a separate program available within the ACSF, which is administered by the ACSF in partnership with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Participation in the ASAP program enables Atlantic Coast Air Services’ employees to voluntarily report significant safety concerns, non-compliance with regulations and other unusual events. Each report is investigated, and corrective actions are determined based on a non-disciplinary approach to flight safety. “ACAS is committed to achieving the highest safety standards within the industry, and ACSF will provide valuable experience and resources to help us achieve our goals,” said Todd Kishpaugh, ACAS’ Director of Business Development. “After all, our people are our most valuable asset. Their wellbeing, and that of each client, is a corporate imperative for us.” ACSF President Bryan Burns echoed their enthusiasm for their new membership. “I think the leadership team at Atlantic Coast Air Services has their safety priorities perfectly aligned,” he said. “We’re greatly looking forward to their membership in ACSF as well as what they’re capable of bringing to help us further improve the Aviation Safety Action Program.” https://www.aviationpros.com/airlines/press-release/21162131/air-charter-safety-foundation-atlantic-coast-air-services-joins-the-air-charter-safety-foundation-and-asap AIRCRAFT MAINTENANCE: WHEN TO OVERHAUL AN ALTERNATOR The world of aircraft maintenance is a fascinating one, and I consider myself a student who is always learning. On one hand, we operate in a strict regulatory environment governed by the federal aviation regulations (FARs). On the other hand, our job as aircraft mechanics (A&Ps) and inspectors (IAs) is to utilize our experience and cumulative knowledge to keep our ever-aging fleet of general aviation aircraft flying safely and reliably. The FARs are the starting point, but mechanics make recommendations on many additional items based on a maintenance philosophy developed from years of experience. A good mechanic “practices the art of aircraft maintenance” just as a doctor practices medicine. I tend to subscribe to the philosophy of “First, do no harm.” Every time a system is disassembled for maintenance, the opportunity exists to induce failures. Therefore, I am deliberately conservative about the components on an aircraft that I will proactively disassemble, inspect, overhaul, or replace without performance-based cause. For aircraft operating under Part 91, this gives us a fair amount of leeway. Manufacturer-recommended time between overhauls based on hours or calendar time, and even service bulletins, is voluntary for Part 91 operators. Research and experience guide the recommendations we make to owners regarding compliance with non-mandatory maintenance. My personal checklist for these items looks something like this: • Does a failure of the affected component affect safety of flight? • Does the affected component typically fail gradually, or catastrophically? • Does the component have a predictable wear trend? • Can the health (or wear) of the component be monitored? Careful consideration of these questions results in my personal philosophy regarding “monitoring” versus “proactive intervention.” When it comes to engine accessories, my “proactive intervention” list is short, with magnetos and alternators topping the list. And that brings me to my most recent replacement (and upgrade): the alternator. For anyone who flies IFR, the loss of an alternator immediately puts you on borrowed time to get on the ground before you lose critical instruments (for glass panels), communication, and navigation. Therefore, the health of the alternator is critically important. That means more than just checking and replacing worn brushes. It means ensuring that the bearings are in good shape, that the diodes are working, and that the unit as a whole is putting out its designed power capacity, something that can degrade over time. On aircraft with gear-driven alternators (Bonanza, Baron, Cirrus, etc.), there is an additional risk in that the alternator is directly connected to the engine through a ring gear on the crank shaft. If the alternator were to seize or become unstable with failed bearings, those loads would be transferred directly to the engine if it weren’t for one critical component: the alternator drive coupling. The drive coupling is a “clutch” of sorts that mounts on the alternator shaft and connects the alternator to its drive gear through an elastomer designed to slip at a specified shear load. This “system” of alternator and drive coupling has a variety of failure modes: • Worn brushes or bearings can lead to reduced output or failure. • A worn seal can allow oil into the alternator, leading to failure. • A slipping drive coupling can reduce alternator output. • A deteriorating drive coupling (sometimes from slippage) can contaminate the engine. I discussed the situation with Brett Benton, president of Quality Aircraft Accessories, and Timothy Gauntt, director of product support for Hartzell Engine Technologies. They both agree that skipping these inspections is a serious issue in the industry that they are being very proactive about. Benton noted that QAA encourages customers sending an alternator in for overhaul to leave the coupling in place on the unit. QAA will inspect the coupling along with the alternator and return the overhauled or new alternator with the inspected coupling installed. This is especially helpful to mechanics and owners because the installation of the coupling is a critical task that must be done properly. There have been enough cases of installation mistakes in the field to warrant service bulletins warning of engine failures if drive couplings are not installed properly. Adding to the case for proper inspection, Gauntt noted that many alternator replacements could be avoided if mechanics tested the coupling first. A slipping drive coupling will cause the alternator to turn more slowly and produce less power. This leads to alternator replacements that do not solve the underlying problem, along with lots of wasted time and money. Upon close inspection of my own drive coupling, I noticed a small amount of pitting on the gears, so I sent it to QAA to inspect and repair/exchange as required. When it came to my alternator, I used the opportunity to upgrade. Over the years, I have added a significant amount of avionics and other power-consuming devices to the aircraft. This includes the new Whelen lighting I installed last year. Although I initially planned for a lower current draw, I simply couldn’t stay away from adding those powerful recognition lights and strobes. Although I was still within the current capacity of the aircraft, I could see my old 80-amp alternator working hard in the pulsing of the ammeter in sync with the strobes when everything was lit up. Benton recommended the Plane Power C14-100 alternator, and Gauntt explained that these new alternators are designed with a modern 8-pole hairpin stator (look that one up) that would deliver up to 100 amps with much smoother power output, especially at lower rpms. After installation, the difference was noticeable. With every switch turned on and the engine at idle, the ammeter is rock solid and all the lights were as bright as could be. With the cold, dark months of winter upon us, it’s critical that your alternator perform at its peak to light up the night or help you navigate the weather. So, be proactive about this important engine accessory. If you have questions, reach out to experts such as Benton at QAA or Gauntt at Hartzell. And, if your mechanic doesn’t have the proper tools to inspect the drive coupling, have him or her reach out to me. We are working on making a drive coupling tool widely available so that mechanics can properly inspect these critical components in the field and help improve aircraft maintenance for everyone. Until next time, I hope you and your families remain safe and healthy, and I wish you blue skies. https://www.aopa.org/news-and-media/all-news/2020/november/10/aircraft-maintenance-when-to-overhaul-an-alternator 5G Networks Could Pose a ‘Major Risk’ to Your Airplane’s Radar, a New Report Says A white paper by an aviation watchdog warns of 'catastrophic failures' if 5G moves into the spectrum traditionally used by civil aircraft. • An RTCA White Paper Warns that 5G Could interfere with Civil Aircraft Radar A white paper by the RTCA, a private-public aviation partnership that advises the Federal Aviation Administration, warns that 5G technologies could pose a “major risk…of harmful interference” to radar on business jets and other civilian aircraft. The paper was released last month following approval by the Federal Communications Commission for telecommunications providers to use the 3.7-3.98 GHz frequency spectrum. The FCC’s decision is part of a growing trend by regulatory agencies to make a larger section of the frequency spectrum available for 5G use. The FCC has approved an auction for potential licensees in December. If 5G telecommunications systems are permitted to use that frequency band, said the report, “the risk is widespread and has the potential for broad impacts to aviation operations in the US, including the possibility of catastrophic failures leading to multiple fatalities, in the absence of appropriate mitigations.” An RTCA White Paper Warns that 5G Could interfere with Civil Aircraft Radar The report says 5G networks could interfere with radar altimeters on civilian aircraft, resulting in false readings on key navigation instrumentation. Used on thousands of civilian aircraft around the world, radar altimeters are the only aircraft sensors that measure the height of the aircraft above the terrain and other obstacles. According to the Flight Safety Foundation, altimeters provide critical information to terrain awareness and warning systems (TAWS), traffic-alert and collision avoidance systems (TCAS), wind shear detection systems, flight control systems and autoland systems. The measurements from radar altimeters are also used by electronic centralized aircraft monitoring (ECAM) systems and engine-indicating and crew alerting systems (EICAS). “Failures of these sensors can therefore lead to incidents with catastrophic results,” noted the report. The aviation industry had warned the FCC earlier this year that additional study was needed to evaluate the effects on potential frequency interference from 5G networks on radar altimeters. “Given the extent to which the safe interference limits are exceeded and the breadth of the impacts to aviation safety,” said the report, “the risk of harmful interference to radar altimeters cannot be adequately mitigated by the aviation industry acting alone.” The association said that it was willing to work with the mobile wireless industry on further research. https://robbreport.com/motors/aviation/5g-interfere-airplane-radar-1234580467/ The FAA Needs to Address Competency and Training Gaps in Workforce, GAO Says The Government Accountability Office (GAO) is recommending the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) Office of Aviation Safety (AVS) identify organization-wide competency gaps and assess training curricula on a recurring basis within its inspector and engineer workforces, according to a Nov. 9 report. The recommendations come after the agency found an increasing lack of institutional knowledge and assessments of training curricula. According to GAO, between 52 to 62 percent of FAA inspectors and engineers will be retirement eligible by fiscal year 2025. It also found that the FAA has changed how it conducts safety oversight work requiring highly technical skills in aerospace technology like risk management and data analysis and that inspectors and engineers do not get adequate training on new technologies, like unmanned aircraft systems (UAS). “As more inspectors and engineers in FAA’s Office of Aviation Safety retire and the aviation industry implements new technologies, the office must ensure its inspectors and engineers have the competencies necessary to respond to these changes,” the report states. “The Office of Aviation Safety has taken positive steps to identify the critical competencies that its inspector and engineer workforces need to address safety oversight activities. However, without conducting recurring, organization-wide assessments of any gaps that exist in these competencies for the inspector and engineer workforces, the Office of Aviation Safety is limited in its ability to efficiently target workforce strategies such as hiring and training.” While the AVS has begun addressing critical competencies, it has done this at an office level, not an organization level which has prevented the FAA from implementing strategies for addressing organization-wide gaps. “For example, without knowing the extent to which its inspector and engineer workforces have gaps in advanced data analytics, the Office of Aviation Safety may not know the extent to which it should hire or train employees with this skill set. Furthermore, Flight Standards and Aircraft Certification may not be able to effectively leverage the existing competencies that its inspector and engineer workforces have to conduct the office’s safety oversight mission," the report states. The report notes that employees receive introductory, recurrent, and on-the-job training, however, the AVS does not regularly assess its training curricula. The latest set of recommendations on hiring practices outlined by GAO comes as the agency has already been discussing plans to hire more software and systems engineers, as well as other technological subject matter experts to improve the way it certifies increasingly complex avionics and other systems in the future, according to a June Senate hearing featuring FAA Administrator Stephen Dickson. FAA's 2021 budget request includes $10 million assigned to adding 50 new technical employees, the first phase of an increased hiring effort for such positions. “Without assessing the curriculum as a whole on a recurring basis, the Office of Aviation Safety does not have complete information on whether critical competencies are being sufficiently emphasized,” the report states. “For example, without recurring curricula assessments, the Office of Aviation Safety may not know whether training courses across training specialties similarly address oversight activities related to new technologies.” As the FAA hires more employees, the training process will become even more important to make sure critical competencies within the agency are aligned, according to the report. By assessing the training curricula regularly, the agency can make sure it will achieve its mission and goals. The Department of Transportation (DOT) agreed with GAO’s assessment and will respond to recommendations 180 days after the report’s issuance, Keith Washington, deputy assistant secretary for administration at the DOT, said in an Oct. 20 letter attached to the report. https://www.aviationtoday.com/2020/11/10/faa-needs-address-competency-training-gaps-workforce-gao-says/ Woman Strips on Plane, Forces Flight to Divert A United Express flight from Jacksonville to Houston was forced to make an emergency landing in Mobile, Alabama last week after a woman became belligerent and stripped down to her underwear. According to local news outlet WALA, 25-year-old Sierra Nicole McClinton got into an altercation with another passenger on Thursday's flight before ultimately being detained by a flight attendant and another passenger. McClinton, who was escorted off of the plane wearing only a t-shirt and underwear, allegedly appeared intoxicated and was yelling obscenities. "CommutAir flight 4332, operating as United Express from Jacksonville to Houston, diverted to Mobile when a passenger became disruptive. The aircraft landed safely in Mobile where law enforcement officials met the aircraft at the gate. The flight continued on to Houston shortly after," a CommutAir spokesperson said in a statement. McClinton now faces charges of disorderly conduct and public intoxication. The impacted flight eventually continued on to Houston without incident. https://www.travelpulse.com/news/airlines/woman-strips-on-plane-forces-flight-to-divert.html Delta Air Lines Sees Cash Burn Rate Edging Closer To Neutral Delta Air Lines (DAL) on Tuesday said it expected its daily cash burn to narrow to $10 million-$12 million in the fourth quarter, as the carrier navigates through a "steady but stable recovery in demand." However, Delta stock and other airline stocks were mixed, after surging Monday on coronavirus vaccine news. The carrier made the forecast after United Airlines (UAL) on Monday also pointed to further rebound in demand, saying it expected Thanksgiving week to be "its busiest since March." Delta's fourth-quarter expectations, outlined in presentation materials for an industry conference, come after the coronavirus pandemic, and travel restrictions put in place around the world, caused travel demand and airline stocks to plummet. The carrier expects fourth-quarter revenue to be down 65% to 70% vs. a year earlier, better than the lows the industry went through in April. And it said net sales "continue to trend higher" when compared to the third quarter. The company expected flight capacity to fall 40% to 45% in the fourth quarter, as demand remains subdued and airlines park jets they don't currently need. Airlines have tried to rein in their cash burn as passengers stay off flights. Delta said it expected daily cash burn in the month of December to be $10 million. Daily cash burn averaged $24 million in Q3, down from Q2's average burn rate of $43 million. The company expected operating expenses for the fourth quarter to be 50% lower than a year ago. Delta Stock, Airline Stocks Delta stock rose 0.7% to close at 37.04 in the stock market today. DAL stock is still above a 35.17 buy point from a bottoming base cleared Monday. But shares were still well off highs reached last year. Delta stock has a 44 Composite Rating. Its EPS Rating is 7. The broader market jumped on Monday, after Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX) said their coronavirus vaccine candidate was found to be more than 90% effective in preventing the disease in people that hadn't shown evidence of prior infection, based on an early analysis from a Phase 3 study. Pfizer may submit its coronavirus vaccine for emergency FDA approval later this month, but it would likely be months before it's widely available. Meanwhile, U.S. coronavirus cases are now rising by more than 100,000 a day, while several European countries are in partial lockdowns to try to control spiraling Covid-19 cases. But stocks that were hard-hit by the pandemic, like airline stocks and companies like Disney (DIS), jumped on the news. Delta stock jumped 17% on Monday. American Airlines (AAL) and United Airlines made similar advances. Among other airline stocks on Tuesday, United Airlines retreated 3.1%. United, on Monday, said it would add more than 1,400 domestic flights the week of Nov. 23. United said it expected around half of its customers traveling for Thanksgiving to book flights less than 30 days prior to departure, up from around 40% last year. American Airlines stock gave up 6.2%. Southwest Airlines (LUV) added 2.1%. The pandemic has forced the airline industry to furlough thousands of employees, seek a second round of government rescue aid, and raise or borrow money. Delta, in the presentation on Tuesday, said it had raised more than $25 billion in financing this year. https://www.investors.com/news/airline-stocks-delta-air-lines-sees-improving-trends-delta-stock-soars-coronavirus-vaccine/ Canada Prepares Federal Aid For Airlines Under One Condition As the world responds to another spike in coronavirus cases, the airline industry is becoming more and more desperate for federal aid. While U.S. carriers were offered $50 billion in aid money via the CARES Act back in March, their partners to the north are still waiting on a bailout. However, it looks like Ottawa is ready to talk. According to Global News, Canadian Transport Minister Marc Garneau announced on Sunday he has prepared a federal assistance plan, but it comes with one condition: airlines must provide cash refunds to all customers whose flights were canceled due to the pandemic. In a statement, Garneau pointed out that passenger numbers are down nearly 90% and dozens of routes have been suspended. One effort to combat the financial effects of the pandemic has been to offer vouchers or credits for canceled flights instead of cash refunds. However, Garneau has deemed the voucher refunds as an “interest-free loan to airlines” and that customers are “rightly angered.” This is because vouchers and credits can only be used on a specific airline and can only be redeemed if that carrier is still around after the pandemic. Furthermore, in times like these when finances are stretched thin, many people would rather have cash, which can be used for necessities, than an airline voucher. This is especially true when vouchers have restrictions or expiration dates, making them more difficult to use. While the industry’s desperation for cash preservation is understandable, banking customer money for services not rendered is unacceptable. Between March and August, 8,000 complaints were made to the Canadian Transportation Agency, most of which pertaining to refunds. Moreover, passengers have filed class-action lawsuits and created three petitions, which garnered over 100,000 signatures, to get their money back. “Before we spend one penny of taxpayer money on airlines, we will ensure Canadians get their refunds. Regional connectivity is important to Canadians travelling now and in the future,” Garneau’s statement said. “We will ensure Canadians and regional communities retain air connections to the rest of Canada, and that Canadian air carriers maintain their status as key customers of Canada’s aerospace industry. Any assistance the Government of Canada provides will come with strict conditions to protect Canadians and the public interest.” Although Garneau is holding Canadian airlines accountable, his announcement comes after months of pressure from Members of Parliament (MPs) and passenger rights activists. In June, Garneau actually defended the airlines’ decision to offer only vouchers and credits, explaining that he was trying to protect the carriers from collapse. “I’m encouraging the airlines to provide the best possible compensation to their passengers when circumstances permit. Some of these airlines are not in a position to do this at this time,” Garneau said at the time. However, it is now apparent that Garneau has changed his tune. If Canadian airlines agree to fulfill the condition required, the government is ready to offer assistance to “include loans and potentially other support to secure important results for Canadians.” The aid will be in addition to the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy, which was offered to Canadian employers who had seen a drop in revenue due to the pandemic. Those eligible for the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy can receive a subsidy to cover employee wages backdated to March 15. Responses to the Announcement In October, WestJet became the first Canadian airline to offer cash refunds to passengers whose flights were canceled due to the pandemic, including basic fares. Refunds for flights canceled by WestJet and Swoop began Nov. 2 and are expected to take six to nine months to complete. The airline was quick to respond to Garneau’s Sunday announcement, stating, “We will evaluate this afternoon’s statement from the Government of Canada and will await greater clarity on what support for the aviation sector might include. As we determine how to proceed in the best interests of our guests, our people and the communities we serve, we won’t be making any further comment.” Meanwhile, Alberta Premier Jason Kenney supported Garneau’s airline aid plan, saying, “Here in Alberta, the impacts have been felt disproportionately given that we are home to WestJet’s head office, one of our most important employers. Alberta is also home to two of Canada’s busiest airports and we are keenly aware of the economic impact that airlines have, employing thousands of Albertans directly, and contributing to our tourism industry, the fourth-largest employment sector in the province, creating jobs for 127,000 Albertans.” Kenney has also called on the government to create a rapid-testing plan for airports nationwide, a program being test in Alberta at Calgary International Airport and Coutts border crossing. He explained that rapid-testing would reduce the 14-day quarantine requirement for entering the country and boost the tourism industry. https://airlinegeeks.com/2020/11/10/canada-prepares-federal-aid-for-airlines-under-one-condition/ Boeing wins zero new orders, delivers few jets and sees 737 MAX backlog shrink October brought no relief for Boeing’s commercial airplane business. It won zero new sales, had to remove an additional 37 MAXs from the order backlog and delivered just 13 jets. Boeing’s struggles in October contrast sharply with a surge in jet deliveries and a small uptick in orders at rival Airbus. Airbus won 11 new orders and delivered a total of 72 aircraft in October. Even with approval for the 737 MAX to fly again expected by year’s end, the order book for that plane continues to shrink. Boeing outright canceled a dozen orders for 737 MAXs last month. It also removed an additional 25 of those aircraft from the official backlog as no longer certain to be fulfilled. Such removals from the order book are required by accounting standards when either the credit quality of an airline has lowered to a point where it may no longer be able to pay for the jets, or because the delay in delivering the airplane, under the terms of the contract, makes a cancellation possible. So far this year, Boeing has removed 595 now-dubious MAX orders from the backlog and outright canceled a further 448, for a total order reduction of 1,043 MAXS. As a result, the 737 MAX backlog as of Oct. 30 fell to 3,320 jets. The backlog for Airbus’ rival A320neo family is 5,956 jets. Boeing’s net order tally for the year, after all the MAX subtractions, is negative 1,020 airplanes. Airbus’s net order total for the year is 308 aircraft. Boeing’s overall order backlog for all models is 4,275 airplanes. The Airbus total backlog is 7,377 airplanes. Inventory swells, deliveries stall The pandemic has forced a huge drop in demand for airplanes, and international travel restrictions are hampering some of the few airlines willing to pick up a jet. In addition, Boeing deliveries continue to be slowed by the need for inspections and rework on 787 Dreamliners following discovery of quality defects in the aft fuselage section built in North Charleston, South Carolina. On the quarterly earnings call at the end of last month, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President Greg Smith said delivery of the “large number of undelivered 787 aircraft in inventory … has been and is expected to remain relatively slow” because of the inspections and rework. As for the 737 MAX, Boeing hasn’t been able to deliver any since the jet was grounded in March 2019. Boeing’s October deliveries included six widebody freighter jets — one 747, two 767s and three 777s — plus a 767 tanker that will be modified into a KC-46 for the Air Force and a P-8 anti-submarine 737 for the Navy. It delivered just five passenger jets last month: a large 777-300ER bought by Dubai-based lessor Novus Capital and destined for British Airways, and four midsize 787s, which went to American Airlines, Irish lessor AerCap, Saudi Arabian Airlines and Etihad of Abu Dhabi. Airbus deliveries included 55 single-aisle passenger jets: 12 A220s (the former Bombardier CSeries aircraft) and 43 A320 family jets. The European jet maker also delivered 17 widebody passenger jets: four midsize A330s, 12 large A350s and one A380 superjumbo jet. https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/boeing-wins-zero-new-orders-delivers-few-jets-and-loses-more-737-maxs/ Southwest is reportedly looking to acquire up to 30 Boeing 737 Max jets even though many travelers say they don't want to fly on the troubled plane Southwest Airlines is in talks with Boeing to purchase more 737 Max aircraft, Bloomberg is reporting. The low-cost airline is reportedly looking at aircraft that have been built but not delivered due to order cancellations, known as "white tail" aircraft. The ill-fated aircraft has been grounded since March 2019 following two fatal crashes. Up to 30 aircraft may soon be joining Southwest's fleet as the aircraft prepares for its return to the skies after a near 2-year grounding. Its return to the skies could be soon, as sources told Reuters on Monday that final approval for the 737 Max's ungrounding could come as early as November 18. The aircraft Southwest is looking at are known as "white tails" as they were built but never delivered thanks to canceled orders by carriers in the wake of the aircraft's grounding and the coronavirus pandemic. Air Canada, for example, just canceled 10 orders, announced in its most recent earnings report, thanks to the pandemic. Southwest, the country's largest low-cost carrier, was an early adopter of the Boeing aircraft that was slated to continue the best-selling Boeing 737 family that first flew in the 1960s. The cost savings offered by the aircraft with minimal additional training for pilots made it a perfect fit for the airline, especially on its longer routes. In 2019, however, the Max program came to a halt as aviation regulators around the world grounded the plane. Southwest, along with American Airlines and United Airlines in the US, was forced to ground the aircraft at its expense and warm-weather boneyards across the country quickly filled up with new arrivals. Over 50% of Americans said in a March 2019 poll by Business Insider that they would not want to fly on a 737 Max and airlines are expected to allow free changes for passengers booked on the aircraft in they're uncomfortable. Southwest had publicly stated its desire for a smaller next-generation aircraft, such as the Boeing 737 Max 7, according to The Points Guy. The airline even hinted at the Airbus A220 as a potential addition to the fleet, which may have been a bargaining ploy to get Boeing to offer a better deal on the white-tailed Max aircraft. A recent earnings report revealed a $1.2 billion loss for the third-quarter but Southwest is expected to recover quicker than the big three international airlines thanks to its leisure-focused route network. October saw Southwest add 19 new routes across the country and announce an expansion to major airports in Chicago, Houston, Miami, uncharted territory for an airline that prefers the smaller airports in those cities. Boeing had been working on a fix for the jet since its grounding and flew successful test flights with regulators in September. Airlines are expecting to fly it in the next few months, subject to final approval from the Federal Aviation Administration and global aviation regulators. American Airlines has the aircraft in its schedule for as soon as December 29, according to Cirium data, flying between New York and Miami. Anticipating a strong customer reaction upon its return to service, the airline is planning tours of the aircraft where passengers can chat with pilots and maintenance staff. A Southwest spokesperson told Business Insider in a statement: "We have nothing new to share regarding fleet plans. We've publicly shared that Southwest is working with Boeing to refresh our order book." Boeing declined to comment. https://www.yahoo.com/news/southwest-reportedly-looking-acquire-30-001555211.html SpaceX Crew Dragon rolls out to pad for Crew-1 astronaut launch for NASA Resilience and its Falcon 9 rocket just took another step toward liftoff. The SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule that will carry four astronauts to the International Space Station this weekend has made it to the launch pad. The capsule, named Resilience, and its SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket rolled out to Launch Pad 39A at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida late Monday into early Tuesday (Nov. 9-10), NASA officials said. The Falcon 9 is scheduled to launch Saturday evening (Nov. 14), sending four astronauts — NASA's Victor Glover, Mike Hopkins and Shannon Walker and Japan's Soichi Noguchi — to the orbiting lab on Crew-1, SpaceX's first operational astronaut mission for NASA. Some important boxes need to be ticked before that can happen, however. Two of those milestones will occur today (Nov. 10), if all goes according to plan — a "static fire" of the Falcon 9, in which the rocket's engines blaze up while the booster remains tethered to the ground, and completion of the Crew-1 flight readiness review. (Update for 2:50 p.m. EST on Nov. 10: The flight readiness review is done, and launch remains targeted for Nov. 14.) NASA's Commercial Crew Program awarded SpaceX a $2.6 billion contract in 2014 to fly at least six operational crewed missions to the space station. The six-month-long Crew-1 is the first of those contracted flights, but it won't be SpaceX's first-ever astronaut mission. That distinction goes to Demo-2, a test flight that sent NASA astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley to the station for two months this past summer. A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket with the company's Crew Dragon spacecraft onboard is seen on the launch pad at Launch Complex 39A on Nov. 10, 2020, after being rolled out overnight as preparations continue for the Crew-1 mission at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida. Boeing also got a NASA commercial crew deal in 2014, worth $4.2 billion. The aerospace giant will fulfill the deal using a capsule called CST-100 Starliner, which isn't ready to fly astronauts yet. Starliner must first ace an uncrewed test flight to the orbiting lab, a mission that the capsule first tried in December 2019. That attempt failed after a glitch trapped Starliner in an orbit too low to allow a meetup with the station. https://www.space.com/spacex-crew-1-dragon-capsule-rocket-rolls-out Royal Aeronautical Society Webinar - AI and Machine Learning in Airborne Systems AI and Machine Learning in Airborne Systems – Unlocking the power without compromising safety Billions of dollars are being invested in the development of revolutionary new civil aircraft that promise to transform transportation as we know it. Delivering on that promise means ensuring these aircraft achieve high levels of autonomy and high levels of safety. Autonomy will depend on AI and machine learning, while safety relies upon rigorous software certification and traceability. At first glance, those seem to be two opposing forces, yet they have to be reconciled. Please join us as experts from the Federal Aviation Administration, the UK Civil Aviation Authority and industry discuss this problem and suggest strategies that could allow innovators to capture the power of AI without compromising safety and certification. Speakers: • Wes Ryan, Unmanned and Pilotless Aircraft Technology Lead at Federal Aviation Administration • Alex Georgiades PhD MRAeS, Innovation Services Principal - Autonomous Systems, Innovation Hub, UK CAA • Monty Christy, FRAeS, Technology Founder, Christy Aerospace and Technology Moderator: William R. Voss FRAeS, Chairman, Royal Aeronautical Society Washington DC Branch When 12 Nov 2020 10:00 AM - 11:30 AM Location: Webinar REGISTER http://raeswashingtondcbranch.cloverpad.org/event-4025469 Impact of COVID-19 on Aviation & Fatigue Survey (Round 1) As a longitudinal survey, we will send you links to shorter follow-up surveys each month as the industry adapts to changes in regulations and public demand. For more information about the survey, please contact Dr. Cassie Hilditch at cassie.j.hilditch@nasa.gov or see below for FAQs. We thank you for your time and support of this survey addressing the effects of this unprecedented time in aviation history. All the best, Cassie Hilditch FAQs Overall purpose of the survey To assess the impact of operational changes related to the COVID-19 pandemic on fatigue in US commercial pilots. Any additional background on the study Discussions with airline representatives and pilots have highlighted several unique changes to operations as the industry attempts to adapt to reduced demand and travel restrictions. Many of these changes are unprecedented, therefore, understanding how they impact crew fatigue is important in order to manage the impact of such changes and potentially recommend safeguards to their implementation. Who will have access to the raw data? Only staff from NASA Ames Fatigue Countermeasures Research Laboratory approved by the Institutional Research Board will have access to the raw data. All data will be stored anonymously, with a unique ID code assigned to each participant to track responses over time. Who will make the final conclusions? NASA Ames Fatigue Countermeasures Research Laboratory staff will summarize and analyze the survey responses. Where will the information be published? We hope to publish the results as a NASA Technical Memorandum, and also in safety-focused peer-reviewed journals and industry newsletters to reach a wide range of audiences to maximize the learning opportunities from this survey. We also aim to present the results at relevant scientific and industry conferences where possible. Cassie J. Hilditch, PhD Senior Research Associate Fatigue Countermeasures Lab SJSU Research Foundation NASA Ames Research Center Moffett Field, CA 94035 Curt Lewis