Flight Safety Information [November 18, 2020] [No. 233] In This Issue : Incident: Delta B739 near Denver on Nov 17th 2020, erroneous stall warnings : ProSafeT - SMS, Quality & Audit Management Software : Incident: Southern B772 at New York on Nov 15th 2020, stall on departure : Accident: Trujet AT72 at Mysore and Chennai on Nov 16th 2020, hard landing and go around in Mysore, gear collapse in Chennai : EIGHT UNANSWERED QUESTIONS ON THE UNGROUNDED BOEING 737 MAX : FAA poised to clear Boeing 737 Max to fly again : Taiwan grounds F-16 fighter fleet after jet goes missing in drill : FedEx pilots union: COVID-19 cases rising, work conditions 'worsening' before peak season : Mideast airlines will buy airplanes worth $685b in next two decades, says Boeing : RTCA Free Technical Webinar 11/30: Interference Risk on Radar Altimeters from Planned 5G Telecommunication Systems Incident: Delta B739 near Denver on Nov 17th 2020, erroneous stall warnings A Delta Airlines Boeing 737-900, registration N908DN performing flight DL-333 from Atlanta,GA to Seattle,WA (USA) with 80 people on board, was enroute at FL340 about 50nm southeast of Denver,CO (USA) when the crew decided to divert to Denver reporting a maintenance issue. ATC decided to declare emergency for the aircraft. While descending the crew reported they had constant stall indications going off, they weren't sure whether they had an airspeed problem or some other indication problems. The aircraft landed safely on Denver's runway 16L, advised no further assistance was needed and taxied to the apron. The aircraft is still on the ground in Denver about 4 hours after landing. The FAA reported: "Delta Airlines Flight 333, a Boeing 737-900 flying from Atlanta to Seattle, declared an emergency and diverted to Denver. The flight landed without incident at 12:36 p.m. local time. The FAA will investigate." https://flightaware.com/live/flight/DAL333/history/20201117/1659Z/KATL/KSEA http://avherald.com/h?article=4df5836b&opt=0 Incident: Southern B772 at New York on Nov 15th 2020, stall on departure A Southern Air Boeing 777-200 freighter, registration N702GT performing flight 9S-947 from New York JFK,NY (USA) to Seoul (South Korea), was climbing out of JFK's runway 22R climbing through about 5000 feet when the crew contacted departure advising they were climbing to 5000 feet. They were cleared to climb to 11000 feet, the aircraft continued climb, the pilot monitoring read back the clearance to climb to 11000 feet when he shouted, obviously to the pilot flying but with radio microphone open: "Stall! Stall! Stall! Stall! Stall!", then added "Standby" (obviously directed at ATC). The speed over ground had decayed from about 273 knots to 256 knots while climbing above 5000 feet, the aircraft began to descend from 5150 feet and stabilized about 200 feet lower. In the meantime the controller received several requests from other aircraft and just replied "Standby" to the other aircraft. The controller queried whether they were ready to climb now, the crew again replied "Standby". About 90 seconds after the stall calls the speed had recovered to 277 knots over ground and was accelerating, the crew indicated they were ready to climb again, everything was good again and were cleared to continue their climb. The controller also resumed normal service to all aircraft. The B772 continued their flight to Seoul where the aircraft landed safely about 14.5 hours later. https://flightaware.com/live/flight/SOO947/history/20201115/1825Z/KJFK/RKSI http://avherald.com/h?article=4df58935&opt=0 Accident: Trujet AT72 at Mysore and Chennai on Nov 16th 2020, hard landing and go around in Mysore, gear collapse in Chennai A Trujet Avions de Transport Regional ATR-72-212A, registration VT-TMM performing flight 2T-543 from Belgaum to Mysore (India) with 47 passengers and 5 crew, was on approach to Mysore's runway 27 (runway length 1740m/5700 feet) at 19:54L (14:24Z) when the aircraft touched down hard and went around. The crew could not retract the gear afterwards, the transponder signal was temporarily lost and recovered about 15 minutes later, however, the aircraft no longer transmitted any altitude information. The crew diverted the aircraft to Chennai, about 210nm east of Mysore, reaching a maximum of 180 knots over ground. The aircraft landed on Chennai's runway 07 (length 3680m/12020 feet) at 21:09L (15:39Z) but suffered the collapse of the right main gear. No injuries are being reported, the aircraft sustained substantial damage. The aircraft is still on the ground in Chennai about 24 hours after the hard touchdown in Mysore and about 23 hours after landing in Chennai. Chennai Airport reported the aircraft carried 47 passengers including one infant and 5 crew. The aircraft was unable to taxi off the main runway after landing, the secondary runway was put into operation, a number of aircraft however needed to divert. The passengers disembarked onto the runway and were bussed to the terminal. The aircraft was towed off the runway about one hour after landing. http://avherald.com/h?article=4df5426b&opt=0 EIGHT UNANSWERED QUESTIONS ON THE UNGROUNDED BOEING 737 MAX While some airlines begin the process of camouflaging the identity of their Boeing 737 MAX jets, passengers want to know if they can board this ungrounded plane with confidence. Our answer after writing a book on this subject and the future of aviation safety is we don’t know. The reason is that we have not been able to receive answers from government authorities to key questions, just six weeks before American Airlines is scheduled to begin flying the MAX. They will be followed in the spring by Southwest. Here’s some helpful background on the accidents that led to the fleet grounding in March 2019 and our eight unanswered questions. While the MAX resembled the 14 earlier versions of the 737, test pilots reported to the FAA that it handled differently. This was certainly no surprise to customers who could see that much larger and heavier engines had been pushed forward on the 737 airframe. To solve this problem Boeing added additional software to the flight control computers called Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS). What MCAS did was just look at a certain condition, flaps up and high angle of attack. If these parameters were met it would automatically adjust the horizontal stabilizer (the large horizontal sur- face at the tail) to make the aircraft want to pitch downwards, reducing the plane’s angle of attack. The idea was to make it respond more like older 737 models. This also translates into lower training costs for pilots who didn’t know that MCAS existed when they began flying the new plane with zero simulator experience. Tragically this safety system designed to “protect” the aircraft unexpectedly led to the October 2018 and March 2019 crashes of Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines MAX aircraft taking the lives of 346 people. The FAA determined that due to “a continuous erroneous high Angle of Attack sensor value …multiple MCAS commands resulted in a significant horizontal stabilizer mistrim condition which the flight crew could not counter using only elevator control.” According to the FAA, Boeing has now changed flight control laws to ensure that if the MCAS system is activated “it will generate a single nose-down command” and not repeat the command in a manner that could potentially recreate the scenario leading to an aerodynamic stall and both crashes. The FAA’s proposed corrective action stipulated that, “MCAS will not command repeated movements of the horizontal stabilizer. The revised flight control laws permit only one activation of MCAS per sensed high Angle of Attack event. Any subsequent activation of MCAS would only be possible after the airplane returns to a low Angle of Attack state.” To date no one working at Boeing or the FAA on the upgraded MAX and its recertification has been able to answer our key questions fundamental to flight safety. 1. Have you addressed common cause anomalies that could lead to an indication of a low-Angle of Attack? If so, how? 2. Has there been an assessment of Radio Frequency interference associated with other crashes. What about radom damage? If so, how have they been addressed? 3. Were probability estimates used? If so, estimating probability on unknown combinations of events is what got us into this situation in the first place. This key error was a central factor in both MAX crashes as well as an earlier automation failure that led directly to the 2009 loss of Air France 447, an Airbus 330 with 228 people on board. The FAA also mandated “that in the event that MCAS is activated, the MCAS system preserves the flight crew’s ability to control the airplane after the activation.” Here the proposed corrective action was a change in “flight control laws to include a limit for MCAS commands. The MCAS will stop commanding stabilizer movement at a point that preserves enough elevator movement for sufficient pilot control of aircraft pitch attitude for current operating conditions.” Here’s what we want to know: 4. What is the definition of "preserves enough elevator movement" and under what conditions? Was a lookup table used to determine the amount of stabilizer movement based on Angle of Attack and mach number? 5. Can it obtain the wrong value due to, for example, reading a mach number lower than what the aircraft is actually flying? We also have several other related questions critical to the MAX and MCAS, a system not present on any other Boeing aircraft. 6. We understand that testing with the stabilizer inoperative and stuck at a very nose-down position has been accomplished. What were the parameters of the testing and what were the results? 7. Are there any unexpected corner cases where the stabilizer could be stuck down forcing the pilots to utilize what is popularly called the "roller coaster" where back pressure on the control column is sufficiently relaxed to allow for many trim movements? 8. If a pilot does not execute the expected responses correctly how much allowance has been made in the design of the systems and procedures to ensure that this does not lead to an accident? Until these questions are answered it is not possible to rule out new problems on the upgraded MAX. We look forward to answers on all these questions and will share them as soon as they arrive from the FAA or Boeing. Shem Malmquist, visiting professor at Florida Institute of Technology is a veteran aviation accident investigator. He and FSI senior editor Roger Rapoport FAA poised to clear Boeing 737 Max to fly again The Federal Aviation Administration is expected on Wednesday to clear Boeing’s 737 Max to fly again after grounding the jet for nearly two years due to a pair of crashes that killed 346 people. Agency Administrator Steve Dickson said last week the FAA was in the final stages of reviewing changes to the Max that would make it safe to return to the skies. “I will lift the grounding order only after our safety experts are satisfied that the aircraft meets certification standards,” he said in a statement. The move would come after numerous congressional hearings on the crashes that led to criticism of the FAA for lax oversight and Boeing for rushing to implement a new software system that put profits over safety and ultimately led to the firing of its CEO. Regulators around the world grounded the Max in March 2019, after the crash of an Ethiopian Airlines jet. That happened less than five months after another Max, flown by Indonesia’s Lion Air, plunged into the Java Sea. All passengers and crew members on both planes were killed. Investigators focused on anti-stall software that Boeing had devised to counter the plane’s tendency to tilt nose-up because of the size and placement of the engines. That software pushed the nose down repeatedly on both planes that crashed, overcoming the pilots’ struggles to regain control. In each case, a single faulty sensor triggered the nose-down pitch. Boeing’s redemption comes in the middle of a pandemic that has scared away passengers and decimated the aviation industry, limiting the company's ability to make a comeback. Air travel in the U.S. alone is down about 65% from a year ago. Boeing sales of new planes have plunged because of the Max crisis and the coronavirus pandemic. Orders for more than 1,000 Max jets have been canceled or removed from Boeing’s backlog this year. Each plane carries a sticker price between $99 million and $135 million, although airlines routinely pay far less than list price. John Hansman, an aeronautics professor at MIT, said that people typically avoid airplanes for a few months after there are problems. But the Max case is unusual, and were it not for the novel coronavirus, Hansman said he would feel safe flying on a Max. “This whole thing has had more scrutiny than any airplane in the world,” he said. “It’s probably the safest airplane to be on.” American is the only U.S. airline to put the Max back in its schedule so far, starting with one round trip daily between New York and Miami beginning Dec. 29. Nearly 400 Max jets were in service worldwide when they were grounded, and Boeing has built and stored about 450 more since then. All have to undergo maintenance and get some modifications before they can fly. Pilots must also undergo simulator training, which was not required when the aircraft was introduced. Hansman said pilot training for qualified 737 pilots shouldn’t take long because Boeing has fixed problems with the Max’s software. It no longer automatically points the plane’s nose down repeatedly, and doesn’t override commands from the pilot, according to Boeing. The company posted a summary of changes to the plane. Relatives of people who died in the crashes remain unconvinced of the Max’s safety. They accused Boeing of hiding critical design features from the FAA and say the company tried to fix the tendency for the plane’s nose to tip up with software that was implicated in both crashes. “The flying public should avoid the Max,” said Michael Stumo, whose 24-year-old daughter died in the second crash. “Change your flight. This is still a more dangerous aircraft than other modern planes.” Boeing's reputation has taken a beating since the crashes. Its then-CEO, Dennis Muilenburg, initially suggested that the foreign pilots were to blame. However, congressional investigators discovered an FAA analysis — conducted after the first Max crash — that predicted there would be 15 more crashes during the plane’s life span if the flight-control software were not fixed. After an 18-month investigation, the House Transportation Committee heaped blame on Boeing, which was under pressure to develop the Max to compete with a plane from European rival Airbus, and the FAA, which certified the Max and was the last agency in the world to ground it after the crashes. The investigators said Boeing suffered from a “culture of concealment,” and pressured engineers in a rush to get the plane on the market. Boeing was repeatedly wrong about how quickly it could fix the plane. When those predictions continued to be wrong, and Boeing was perceived as putting undue pressure on the FAA, Muilenburg was fired in December 2019. Dickson — who flew F-15 fighters in the Air Force before serving as a pilot and an executive at Delta Air Lines — foreshadowed the agency's decision to clear the Max to fly again with comments in September, after he climbed into the cockpit of a Max for a two-hour test flight. “I liked what I saw on the flight," Dickson declared that day. Some relatives of passengers who died in the Ethiopian crash dismissed Dickson's flight as a stunt to benefit Boeing. In recent weeks, European regulators also signaled their likely approval of Boeing's work. Regulators in Canada and China are still conducting their own reviews. Relatives say it's too soon, and they and their lawyers say Boeing and the FAA are withholding documents. Naoise Ryan, an Irish citizen whose husband died in the Ethiopian crash, said the Max is “the same airplane that crashed not once but twice because safety was not a priority for this company.” Anton Sahadi, who lives in Jakarta, Indonesia, and lost two brothers in the Lion Air crash, said he feels it is too early for the Max to fly again. “I, personally, feel so regretful for the decision to unground the Boeing’s 737 Max,” he said. “The cases from the incidents are not 100% finished yet. There are many of them still in process. I think all the victims’ family in Indonesia and Ethiopia will feel the same, so regretful, why it can fly again because we are still in the recovery process for our problems because of the incidents.” https://www.yahoo.com/news/faa-poised-clear-boeing-737-041752148.html Taiwan grounds F-16 fighter fleet after jet goes missing in drill The move involves about 150 aircraft and follows the disappearance of a jet minutes after takeoff on Tuesday. Taiwan has grounded all of its F-16 fighter jets for safety inspections as it continues to search for a plane after it went missing during a training exercise on Tuesday night. The grounding announced on Wednesday involves about 150 planes, which have played a crucial role in Taiwan’s efforts to deter Chinese aircraft that have been encroaching into its airspace more regularly in recent months. The air force said a single-seat F-16 flown by a 44-year-old pilot disappeared from radar at an altitude of some 6,000 feet (1,800 metres) two minutes after taking off from Hualien air base in eastern Taiwan on Tuesday night. The disappearance comes less than three weeks after a pilot was killed when he ejected from his F-5E fighter jet during training, prompting a similar grounding. “The rescue mission is our top priority now. The air force has grounded all F-16s for checks and I’ve instructed an investigation into the cause of the incident,” President Tsai Ing-wen told reporters. Tsai in October pledged to modernise Taiwan’s military in response to an increasingly assertive China, which claims the island as its own and has not ruled out the use of force to achieve its objective. Without the F-16s, Taiwan’s air force fleet consists of the locally-built Indigenous Defence Fighter, French-built Mirages from the late 1990s and F-5E fighters that date back to the 1970s. China incursions In January, eight senior officials including the chief of the general staff were killed in a helicopter crash. There have been seven crashes involving F-16s since Taiwan took delivery of the fighters, which it bought from the United States in 1997. Taiwan has scrambled its planes at double the rate of last year to protect against China’s increased incursions into its airspace. The defence ministry’s Twitter account shows one or two Chinese aircraft have entered the island’s airspace nearly every day this month. Analysts say Beijing wants to test the island’s defence responses but also to wear out its fighters, which come closer to expiry with each sortie. China has stepped up military, economic and diplomatic pressure on Taiwan since Tsai was first elected in 2016, in part due to her refusal to acknowledge that the island is part of Beijing’s “one China” concept. The US, which is bound by law to support Taiwan, is selling weapons and equipment worth some $18bn to Taiwan, including 66 new generation F-16s and advanced missile platforms. The sales have angered Beijing. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/taiwan-grounds-its-f-16-fighters-after-jet-goes-missing FedEx pilots union: COVID-19 cases rising, work conditions 'worsening' before peak season The union representing FedEx Express pilots said its members are “strained like never before,” saying COVID-19 cases have risen and working conditions are difficult ahead of an anticipated record-breaking holiday shipping season. The FedEx Master Executive Council is calling on company management to improve the working environment for pilots, saying in a member communication Nov. 9 that “conditions are significantly worsening during our busiest season and many pilots are at or near their physical and psychological limits.” The union has raised issue with layover conditions during government-mandated quarantines, including in Hong Kong. In July, pilots union leaders called on FedEx to suspend Hong Kong operations because of “unacceptable conditions” at hospitals caused by COVID-19 mandates. 'Shipathon':FedEx ads push message of shopping and shipping early to customers “Unfortunately, management appears to be more focused on mitigating damage to service levels and profits than mitigating the effects of months-long hotel lockdowns and the many other substandard situations brought to their attention,” the Nov. 9 message says. “Management communications that fail to mention any efforts to improve working conditions hint at their priorities.” FedEx said in a statement it has been in constant communication with its crew force and "taken extensive measures to address aspects of crew member safety, including adhering to FAA and CDC guidance and implementing extensive necessary safety measures to protect our crews." It added that it works with state public health departments to ensure employees diagnosed with COVID-19 can receive proper care and employees who have had close contact with positive cases can be notified. "These measures are a part of a robust health self-monitoring program that we are overseeing, which includes requiring pilots to check their temperature twice a day, extensive aircraft and facility cleaning and disinfecting procedures, and provisions of PPE for each pilot," FedEx said. FedEx Express has seen more demand amid the COVID-19 pandemic, as the company has delivered COVID-19 relief supplies and many cargo-carrying passenger planes remain grounded. Cargo weight handled by FedEx Express in September at its Memphis World Hub was roughly 848.4 million pounds, a 17.8% increase from the year before, according to the Memphis International Airport. In July, the pilots union flagged concerns from its members about being fatigued and not fully alert during flights. FedEx said at the time the fatigue call increase was slight “based on the current dynamic operating environment,” and noted a program it has in place allowing “crew members to call in fatigued or excessively tired without penalty.” The FedEx pilots union said Nov. 10 it was aware of 185 pilots who have tested positive for COVID-19, per a member communication. The Master Executive Council represents more than 5,000 FedEx Express pilots, according to the Air Line Pilots Association, which the union is a part of. FedEx Captain Bill Hubbell said on a union podcast earlier this month there has been a more than 40% increase in COVID-19 cases among the FedEx pilots group in one month. Hubbell said he’s talked to multiple pilots who are COVID-19 symptomatic and “really sick.” “So we are definitely in a spot where the cases are rising very rapidly,” he said. All the while, pilots “are working very, very hard at levels we’ve never seen before for months and months on end,” Hubbell said. The peak holiday shipping season that typically begins after Thanksgiving will elevate shipping volumes further. “The foot is firmly on the gas pedal and I don't see it letting up anytime soon. Extra business is always a good thing to have, but it creates other problems for the pilot group,” Hubbell said. “…It's like double overtime and we're looking at possibly a vaccine rollout, which you can only imagine what that's going to look like, too.” When the pilots union raised concerns about Hong Kong, FedEx said it was “fully engaged with government authorities to support our crew members in situations requiring medical treatment or self-isolation in Hong Kong.” In the Nov. 9 communication, the union said Hong Kong layovers were removed but “shared management’s desire to layover in Hong Kong with a normalized schedule.” Captain Chris Lee said on the podcast the union has been informed layovers in Hong Kong will start again for the December flight bid period. FedEx said Monday it has "instituted protocols and flexed operations to address concerns from team members around the world" during the pandemic. https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/money/industries/logistics/2020/11/17/fedex-pilots-union-covid-19-cases-rising-work-conditions-worsening/6311871002/ Mideast airlines will buy airplanes worth $685b in next two decades, says Boeing Passenger traffic growth in the region will outpace the global average Boeing expects demand for 2,945 new airplanes in the Middle East valued at $685 billion over the next two decades, as the industry recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic. The projection is part of Boeing’s 2020 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), an annual forecast of 20-year demand for commercial airplanes and services. Over the next 20 years, passenger traffic growth in the Middle East is projected to increase by an average of 4.3 per cent per year, above the global average of 4 per cent growth per year, the US plane-maker said in its report. “In recent decades, several airlines in the Middle East have leveraged their geographical position to connect rapidly growing Asian economies and the more mature markets in Europe,” said Darren Hulst, Boeing vice president of Commercial Marketing. “At the historical crossroads connecting Europe, Africa and Asia, the Middle East and its airlines will remain a critical hub of sixth-freedom passenger flows and cargo throughout the 20-year outlook.” Meanwhile, commercial fleet in the region will more than double to reach 3,500 by 2039. “Globally, with key industry drivers expected to remain resilient through the forecast’s 20-year period, the commercial fleet is expected to return to its growth trend, generating demand for more than 43,000 new airplanes,” said Boeing. Commercial aviation and services markets will continue to face significant challenges earlier in the 20-year forecast, while showing resilience and a return to growth trend over the longer term. “While aviation has seen periodic demand shocks since the beginning of the jet age, the industry has recovered from these downturns every time as aviation plays an integral role in the global economy,” said Hulst. “The current market disruption will shape airline fleet strategies long into the future as airlines focus on building versatile fleets that provide future network flexibility, maximizing capability while minimizing risk and improving efficiency and sustainability.” HIGHLIGHTS OF MARKET OUTLOOK • In the wide-body segment, Boeing forecasts Middle East demand for 1,280 new passenger airplanes by 2039. While this reflects challenges to long-haul markets that are both typical to air-travel shocks and specifically due to the pandemic’s impact on international travel, the CMO forecasts a recovery to pre-pandemic trends in the medium and long term. The Middle East’s replacement demand is also a growing share of new wide-body airplane demand. • In the near-term, domestic and short-haul markets around the world are expected to recover earlier from pandemic effects. Middle East single-aisle seat capacity more than doubled over the past five years for destinations outside the region. The CMO projects a near tripling of the single-aisle fleet by 2039 to further serve this growing segment of the market. • Since 2000, Middle East carriers have grown their share of world air cargo traffic from 4% in 1999 to 13% as they rapidly grew their widebody passenger and freighter fleets. Freighters represent a continued area of opportunity for Middle East airlines with the fleet projected to nearly double from 80 in 2019 to 150 by 2039. • Boeing projects a 20-year opportunity for Middle East commercial services valued at $725 billion, including requirements for supply chain and maintenance, repair and overhaul capability focused on newer airplane technologies and software solutions to reduce operating costs and improve efficiency. • Boeing’s 2020 Pilot and Technician Outlook forecasts that the region is estimated to require 223,000 new aviation personnel by 2039, including 58,000 pilots, 59,000 technicians and 106,000 cabin crew members. https://gulfnews.com/business/aviation/mideast-airlines-will-buy-airplanes-worth-685b-in-next-two-decades-says-boeing-1.75348341 RTCA Free Technical Webinar 11/30: Interference Risk on Radar Altimeters from Planned 5G Telecommunication Systems Join RTCA and leaders of Special Committee 239 (SC-239) for a discussion on the planned 5G telecommunications system implementation that could interfere with radar altimeters. The session will address potential risks to commercial transport airlines; business, regional, and general aviation airplanes; and both transport and general aviation helicopters. The presentation includes an overview SC-239’s new white paper: Assessment of C-Band Mobile Telecommunications Interference Impact on Low Range Radar Altimeter Operations that was written to address the potential consequences of interference events. The panel will address your questions and concerns in an interactive Q&A session. Panelists include committee co-chairs Jean-Luc Robin of Airbus and Seth Frick of Honeywell and secretary Dr. Sai Kalyanaraman of Collins Aerospace. REGISTER Curt Lewis