Flight Safety Information - March 26, 2021 No. 063 In This Issue : Incident: Brussels A333 at Frankfurt on Mar 25th 2021, rejected takeoff due to computer trouble : FAA Expected To Certify The Boeing 737 MAX 200 This Week : Airline Accident Rate Rises, Total Accidents Drop In 2020 : No-fly lists grow as airlines add hundreds of passengers who refuse to wear masks : Spirit Airlines flight departing from Cleveland lands in Denver after passenger tries to open exit door, airline says : NTSB asks FAA to enhance safety regulations for some flights : Largest conference ever held on contaminated air on aircraft concludes effective ‘bleed air’ filters and sensors should be installed on passenger jet and turboprop aircraft. : Study Predicts Pilot Shortage Will Return by 2022 : Amazon airline ATSG touts red-hot business for cargo jet leases : Boeing Poised to Deliver 787 Jets After Five-Month Drought : SpaceX launches 60 more Starlink satellites, making 240 launched this month alone Incident: Brussels A333 at Frankfurt on Mar 25th 2021, rejected takeoff due to computer trouble A Brussels Airlines Airbus A330-300 on behalf of Eurowings, registration OO-SFP performing flight EW-1278 from Frankfurt/Main (Germany) to Windhoek (Namibia), was lined up and cleared for takeoff from Frankfurt's runway 25C when the crew upon initiating the takeoff rejected takeoff at low speed. The aircraft vacated the runway at the third available exit about 700 meters/2300 feet down the runway and returned to the apron. A passenger reported the crew indicated a computer problem, maintenance would shortly arrive. The passengers were kept on board. The aircraft was able to depart 110 minutes after the rejected takeoff and is currently climbing through FL180. https://avherald.com/h?article=4e4ee86e&opt=0 FAA Expected To Certify The Boeing 737 MAX 200 This Week Ryanair Group CEO Michael O’Leary has shared some key updates regarding the certification and delivery schedule of its highly-anticipated Boeing 737 MAX 200. The head of the Irish carrier said in a press conference today that the model could be certified as early as this week, and the first units are expected to arrive at the airline’s facilities next month. The “Gamechanger” At the end of last year, Ryanair announced that it raised its MAX 200 order from 135 to 210 aircraft. The low-cost carrier emphasized that the plane is the most audited and regulated in the history of aviation. Moreover, the jet’s features have enabled it to be dubbed as a “Gamechanger” by Ryanair. Along with a range of external factors, Ryanair is thrilled about the eight more seats available than its 737-800NGs. Altogether, despite not needing the aircraft immediately, O’Leary is excited to get them in the air. He feels that it will be a great experience across the board due to the balance of economics and efficiency. The executive highlights that the aircraft reduces noise emissions by 40%, so customers and airport neighbors will be glad about the improvements. He added that there is also 16% less fuel burn, and the savings will be passed on to the passengers. The all-important schedule Despite delays, Ryanair won’t have to wait long to hit the skies with the plane. There are significant breakthroughs expected in the next few weeks. “We had hoped to take our first MAX delivery in late March. We think that’s now unlikely – it still hasn’t been certified. We’re hoping that the MAX-8200 will be certified by the FAA sometime later this week and then by EASA either later this week or early next week. In those circumstances, we would expect to take probably our first MAX delivery, the Gamechanger aircraft, in April. We would be hopeful then that we could take up eight deliveries in April and eight deliveries in May. We’re not taking any deliveries in June,” O’Leary said in the conference. “That would leave us with an additional 16 aircraft for the summer of 2021. But given that, at this point in time, we’re only factoring to operate about 80% of our pre-COVID peak capacity, you know, we don’t need these aircraft. But we are anxious to get the aircraft delivered so we can start training pilots, the cabin crew can get familiar with them, and customers can enjoy flying them.” Preparing for the next stage Even though the pandemic has massively impacted operations over the last year, there is some light at the end of the tunnel. Ryanair is hopeful that there will be some restrictions lifted this summer. Europe is facing another rise in virus cases, but O’Leary is optimistic that there will be more activity this summer. He expresses that as the vaccine rollout continues, significant portions of vulnerable groups will be protected. So, if there are increases in virus figures, the number of severe cases will be considerably lower. Even if traffic is not near pre-pandemic levels, the activity is still expected to be greater than last summer. Therefore, these new MAX 200s of Ryanair will be ready for the next chapter. https://simpleflying.com/faa-boeing-737-max-200-certification/ Airline Accident Rate Rises, Total Accidents Drop In 2020 The airline accident rate for 2020 was higher than average in spite of fewer accidents taking place, according to a report released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) on Thursday. In its 2020 Safety Report, the association noted that there were 1.71 accidents per million flights in the commercial airline industry this year compared to the five-year average of 1.38 accidents per million flights. The report also stated that total flight operations decreased by 53 percent in 2020, largely due to the effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. “The severe reduction in flight numbers magnified the impact of each accident when we calculate rates,” said IATA Director General and CEO Alexandre de Juniac. “But numbers don’t lie, and we will not allow this to become a trend. We will have even sharper focus on safety during this period of reduced operations and as flight schedules are rebuilt when the world reopens.” In addition, IATA found that the total number of accidents decreased from 52 overall with 8 fatal crashes in 2019 to 38 overall with 5 fatal crashes in 2020. The fatality risk remained even with the five-year average of 0.13. The group highlighted that there no loss of control inflight (LOC-I) accidents in the segment for the first time in more than 15 years. https://www.avweb.com/flight-safety/accidents-ntsb/airline-accident-rate-rises-total-accidents-drop-in-2020/?MailingID=570&utm_source=ActiveCampaign&utm_medium=email&utm_content=Airline+Accident+Rate+Rises%2C+Total+Accidents+Drop+In+2020%2C+NASA+Eyes+April+For+First+Helicopter+Flight+On+Mars&utm_campaign=Airline+Accident+Rate+Rises%2C+Total+Accidents+Drop+In+2020%2C+NASA+Eyes+April+For+First+Helicopter+Flight+On+Mars+-+Friday%2C+March+26%2C+2021 IATA Releases 2020 Safety Report, Details Airline Safety Performance With a fatality risk of 0.13 for air travel, on average, a person would have to travel by air every day for 461 years before experiencing an accident with at least one fatality. International Air Transport Association (IATA) Mar 25th, 2021 Iata IATA Montreal - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced the publication of the 2020 Safety Report and released data for the 2020 safety performance of the commercial airline industry. • The total number of accidents decreased from 52 in 2019 to 38 in 2020. • The total number of fatal accidents decreased from 8 in 2019 to 5 in 2020. • The all accident rate was 1.71 accidents per million flights. This is higher than the 5-year (2016-2020) average rate which is 1.38 accidents per million flights. • IATA member airlines’ accident rate was 0.83 per million flights, which was an improvement over the 5-year average rate of 0.96. • Total flight operations reduced by 53% to 22 million in 2020. • Fatality risk remained unchanged compared to the five-year average at 0.13. • With a fatality risk of 0.13 for air travel, on average, a person would have to travel by air every day for 461 years before experiencing an accident with at least one fatality. On average, a person would have to travel every day for 20,932 years to experience a 100% fatal accident. “Flying is safe, although the industry did take a step back on performance in 2020. The severe reduction in flight numbers magnified the impact of each accident when we calculate rates. But numbers don’t lie, and we will not allow this to become a trend. We will have even sharper focus on safety during this period of reduced operations and as flight schedules are rebuilt when the world reopens,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO. For the first time in more than 15 years there were no Loss of Control Inflight (LOC-I) accidents, which have accounted for the largest share of fatalities since 2016. “The lack of any such events in 2020 was a positive development. Nevertheless, based on the initial reports from the investigation into the tragic loss of Sriwijaya Air SJ 182 early in 2021, we must continue to learn and improve,” said de Juniac. Jet hull loss rates by region of operator (per 1 million departures) The global average hull loss rate rose slightly in 2021 compared to the five-year average (2016-2020) despite improvement in five regions. Turboprop hull loss rates by region of operator (per 1 million departures) Six regions showed improvement or no deterioration in the turboprop hull loss rate in 2020 when compared to their respective five-year averages. Accidents involving turboprop aircraft represented 29% of all accidents and 40% of fatal accidents in 2020. Safety in Africa Airlines based in sub-Saharan Africa experienced six accidents last year, two of which were fatal, both involving turboprop aircraft. This is the same number of fatal accidents that occurred in 2019, nevertheless the fatality risk increased owing to the fact that there were fewer flights last year. There were no hull loss accidents involving jet aircraft in 2020. The focus in Africa continues to be on accelerating the implementation of the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) safety-related standards and recommended practices (SARPS). At year-end 2020, some 28 African countries (61% of the total) had at least 60% SARPS implementation, unchanged from 2019. “While we recognize the extraordinary challenges in 2020 that touched on all aspects of aviation, we hope that we will see additional movement in this number as the pandemic recedes,” said de Juniac. IATA also continues to work closely with all key stakeholders in the region. IATA and African Airlines Association (AFRAA) joined forces with the African Civil Aviation Commission (AFCAC) on a three-year safety project to provide technical support to the African air operators of states party to the Single Africa Air Transport Market (SAATM) to ensure they achieve and maintain global aviation safety standards. Safety in CIS Airlines based in the CIS region experienced no fatal accidents in 2020, which was a significant improvement compared to 2019. The jet hull loss rate for CIS airlines in 2020 improved compared to 2019 but declined compared to the five-year average 2016-2020 and was the highest among regions. CIS airlines experienced no turboprop hull loss accidents in 2020, a significant improvement over 2019 and the five-year average. IATA Operational Safety Audit (IOSA) The all accident rate for airlines on the IOSA registry was nearly three times better than that of non-IOSA airlines for 2020 (1.20 vs. 3.29). The 2016-2020 average of IOSA airlines versus non-IOSA airlines was more than twice as good (0.99 vs. 2.32). All IATA member airlines are required to maintain their IOSA registration. There are currently 438 airlines on the IOSA Registry of which 142 are non-IATA Members. Fatality Risk Fatality risk measures the exposure of a passenger or crew to a catastrophic accident with no survivors. The calculation of fatality risk does not take into account aircraft size or how many were onboard. What is measured is the percentage of fatalities among those onboard. Download the 2020 Safety Report https://www.aviationpros.com/airlines/press-release/21215952/international-air-transport-association-iata-iata-releases-2020-safety-report-details-airline-safety-performance No-fly lists grow as airlines add hundreds of passengers who refuse to wear masks KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Airports are starting to see more business and airlines are slowly adding flights. But hundreds of passengers won’t be flying anywhere in the foreseeable future. Multiple airlines confirm they have no-fly lists dedicated to people who’ve been banned for refusing to wear masks, which is a federal requirement. Delta Airlines has 1,000 people on it’s list according to Bob Somers, Senior Vice President of Global Sales for Delta. He talked about the list and other safety measures during a town hall with Acendas Travel Wednesday afternoon. Somers touted Delta’s new HEPA air filtration systems on planes and said Delta is committed to blocking middle seats, for the time being, until it’s safer for everyone to fly. “Air travel is a cleaner experience than standing in a grocery store,” Somers said during the virtual meeting. United Airlines said it’s also taken steps to make flying as safe as possible. That included banning 738 passengers because they violated the federal mask policy. All United employees and customers age 2 and older are required to wear a face covering in the airport and after boarding a plane, but the statistics United provided showed not everyone does. Southwest Airlines doesn’t track mask compliance to release to the public, but said it takes a different approach. In a statement, Southwest said it reminds all customers of the federal mask mandate multiple times between booking and boarding the flight. The airline said the reminders are used as preventative measures in hopes of avoiding the need to ban a customer from future flying. American Airlines also didn’t share statistics, but did release a statement: “We expect our customers to comply with our policies when they choose to travel with us, and we take action when that is not the case, but the vast majority of our customers have supported and welcomed our continuing efforts to strengthen our face covering policy,” Gianna Urgo, Global Communications for American Airlines, said. Frontier Airlines and Spirit Airlines did not respond to information about the number of passengers who’ve violated mask mandates on their flights. https://fox4kc.com/news/no-fly-lists-grow-as-airlines-add-hundreds-of-passengers-who-refuse-to-wear-masks/ Spirit Airlines flight departing from Cleveland lands in Denver after passenger tries to open exit door, airline says CLEVELAND, Ohio -- A Spirit Airlines flight that departed from Cleveland en route to Los Angeles landed in Denver Wednesday evening after a passenger tried to open an exit door while in flight. The Spirit Airlines flight left Cleveland shortly after 6:15 p.m. The airline noted that “opening a door inflight is impossible due to air pressure inside the cabin pinning the door against its frame with force stronger than any person could ever overcome.” No passengers were hurt during the incident, the airline said. Denver law enforcement took the passenger into custody once the airplane landed, the statement says. “Safety is our number one priority at Spirit Airlines,” the statement says.” The airline thanked crew members and guests who helped with the situation. https://www.cleveland.com/travel/2021/03/spirit-airlines-flight-departing-from-cleveland-lands-in-denver-after-passenger-tries-to-open-exit-door-airline-says.html NTSB asks FAA to enhance safety regulations for some flights The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) held a public board meeting Tuesday on how some revenue passenger-carrying flight operations are conducted as general aviation flights. The board is calling for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to enhance a series of safety requirements. The FAA has made allowances for certain revenue passenger-carrying operations to be governed by Part 91, general aviation regulations, which have less stringent safety requirements. Part 91 revenue passenger-carrying operations result in inadequate aircraft maintenance, deficiencies in pilot skills and decision-making, a lack of structured pilot training, and a lack of FAA oversight, the NTSB said. “The NTSB remains concerned with the inadequate safety standards the FAA allows for some revenue passenger-carrying general aviation operations,” NTSB Chairman Robert L. Sumwalt said. “When someone pays for an air tour, a parachute jump flight, or an extreme aerobatic experience flight, they have the right to expect effective safety standards for such operations. Currently, that is not the case, and this exposes customers to unnecessary risks.” Members of the public spoke at the meeting, sharing their flying experiences. The majority of the public is unaware many flights are not subject to the same maintenance, airworthiness, and operational requirements as other revenue flight operations. https://transportationtodaynews.com/news/21953-ntsb-asks-faa-to-enhance-safety-regulations-for-some-flights Largest conference ever held on contaminated air on aircraft concludes effective ‘bleed air’ filters and sensors should be installed on passenger jet and turboprop aircraft. • News provided by Global Cabin Air Quality Executive Ltd on Tuesday 23rd Mar 2021 • 94% of voters voted that effective ‘bleed air’ filters and sensors should be installed on passenger jet and turboprop aircraft. Tuesday 23 March 2021 Largest conference ever held on contaminated air on aircraft concludes effective ‘bleed air’ filters and sensors should be installed on passenger jet and turboprop aircraft. London, England. The 2021 Aircraft Cabin Air Conference took place online via Zoom, over 4 days, from 15 to 18 March 2021 from 15:00 to 20:00 daily. The conference saw over a dozen films shown, over 30 presenters speak ranging from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), scientist and medical experts, air accident investigators, engineers, attorneys who have or are running cases related to exposures, crew representatives bodies such as the Global Cabin Air Quality Executive (GCAQE) to companies offering potential solutions to help mitigate the contaminated air on aircraft problem, such as Pall Aerospace, BASF, PTI Technologies, Aircraft Clean Air to name a few. Nearly 1600 delegates registered for the event. Logging in from 6 continents via Zoom, they ranged from US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) personnel, US military, Airbus, Boeing, Embraer, numerous national aviation authorities, filtration and sensing companies and experts, numerous air accident departments, synthetic lubricant manufacturers, aircraft leasing companies, legal teams, scientists & researchers, airline crews and crew unions, to representatives from over 50 airlines. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has previously stated that: “The cabin/cockpit air quality is similar or better than what is observed in normal indoor environments (offices, schools, kinder gardens or dwellings)” and “A human exposure study is the long-needed tool to provide an unequivocal and sound data set to end the misguided discussion on cabin air quality once and for all.” The validity of the EASA view was brought into question by research presented at the conference. A film screened at the conference entitled “Ultrafine Particle Levels Measured On Board Short-haul Commercial Passenger Jet Aircraft” showed that although the air quality in the cruise / steady state phase of flight (the state when engine air quality is certificated) measured very low levels of ultra fine particles (UFPs), there was a clear pattern of increased UFPs during engine power changes and aircraft air conditioning system configuration changes. Levels were reported to be 25 times higher than in a home. Unfortunately, EASA were absent from the conference with no representatives registering. The film is available to view at: https://vimeo.com/520013750 Over the last 20 years, there have been over 50 recommendations and findings made by 12 air accident departments globally, directly related to contaminated air exposures on passenger jet aircraft. However, commercial aircraft continue to fly, with no contaminated air warning systems to notify passengers and crews when the air they are breathing is contaminated despite numerous calls to EASA by air accident investigators. However, EASA have repeatedly stated that contaminated air is not a safety issue, something crew unions strongly dispute and disagree with. Every airline crew union representative presenting at the conference, endorsed or echoed the aims of one of the conference sponsors, the Global Cabin Air Quality Executive’s (GCAQE) ‘Clean Air Campaign’ launched in February 2021. The airline crew campaign is calling on regulators and Governments globally, to mandate the introduction of effective 'bleed air' filters and contaminated air warning sensors on passenger aircraft. See: https://www.gcaqe.org/cleanair The very successful 2021 conference which follows on from the 2017 and 2019 conferences held in London, discussed and debated primarily the design flaw that relates to the way the breathing air supply on all passenger jet aircraft (except the Boeing 787) is supplied. The breathing air is provided to passengers and crews unfiltered directly from the compression section of the engines or from the Auxiliary Power Unit (APU), a small engine in the tail of the aircraft. This is a process known as ‘bleed air,’ because it is ‘bled’ from the hot compression section of the engine. The ‘bleed air’ is not filtered and known to become contaminated with synthetic jet engine oils[1] and hydraulic fluids. The cans of the jet engine oils and hydraulic fluid products that are contaminating the breathing air supply and to which people have been exposed state: “Do not breathe mist or vapour from heated product”, “Risk of causing cancer”, “Risk of infertility”, “Risk of neurological effects” etc… Conference sponsor BASF provided an informative presentation about their aviation catalytic convertors and the importance that they be maintained in accordance with manufacturer guidelines and procedures. Further details available at: https://catalysts.basf.com/products-and-industries/aircraft-cabin-fuel-inerting/aircraft-cabin-ozone-converters Conference keynote speaker Pall Corporation, who were the first company globally to provide an airline with a Cockpit Filter Unit (CFU) over 10 years ago, discussed the efficiency of their HEPA filters to deal with bacteria and viruses on aircraft and gave an update on their Cabin Air Quality Sensor (CAQS). They also presented an update on their total cabin air filtration system known as a Mist and Vapour Eliminator (MaVE) filter. Both CAQS and MaVE technologies are at an advanced design phase and attracting widespread airline and industry interest. Further details are available at: aerospace.pall.com Conference Director Captain Tristan Loraine stated: “I would like to thank our sponsors, speakers, the organisation team and everyone who attended the conference. It was the biggest conference ever held on the issue with the greatest diversity of attendees we have ever had. Although EASA elected sadly not to attend, I hope they will listen to the results of the conference poll taken on day 4. This was a poll voted on by representatives from all stakeholders in aviation. 94% of voters voted that effective ‘bleed air’ filters and sensors should be installed on passenger jet and turboprop aircraft. Although aviation is the safest form of travel statistically, it is time for EASA and the FAA to take steps to protect crews and the travelling public from contaminated air exposures and enhance flight safety. The technology is there to do it, airline crews globally want it, passengers expect it and air accident departments have been calling for it for over 10 years.” In their presentation and corporate film shown to attendees, US filtration company PTI Technologies highlighted that the industry filters the ‘bleed air’ used for the Fuel Tank Inerting System (FTIS). FTIS was introduced after the TWA 800 tragedy to prevent a fuel tank ignition. The FTIS system works by providing a nitrogen rich environment in the fuel tank. The system also uses bleed air, but because of the presence of engine oil fumes in the ‘bleed air’ and their adverse effects on the system, this ‘bleed air’ is filtered. PTI Technologies suggested the ‘bleed air’ people are breathing should also now be filtered to “enhance the in-flight experience, but more importantly, flight safety. “ The PTI Technologies promotional film explaining this is also available at: https://www.ptitechnologies.com/cabinsafe-filters A short video explaining the FTIS and bleed air system is on the GCAQE campaign website page at: https://www.gcaqe.org/cleanair Both jet engine oils and hydraulic fluids contain organophosphates. These chemicals have been found in hundreds of swab samples carried out on the interior surfaces of aircraft and in many air-monitoring studies. In addition to the ‘Clean Air Campaign,’ conference sponsor the GCAQE, also recently created the first ever, global reporting system for contaminated air events, known as GCARS. The ‘Global Cabin Air Reporting System’, which anyone can use, is available at: https://gcars.app/ Conference Director Captain Tristan Loraine also stated: “The industry has achieved so many great things in the last 50 years. It has taken numerous steps to enhance flight safety. Conference attendees made it very clear they now need to resolve the contaminated air issue. Regulators like EASA say they need to know what chemicals are present during a contaminated air event before they can consider mandating new technologies to mitigate the problem. They knew over 20 years ago what chemicals were present, as they have data from the investigation into the total incapacitation of two pilots on a domestic Swedish flight known as the ‘Malmo’ incident in 1999. This was shown in a film entitled ‘One Night Over Sweden’ at the conference.” The film entitled ‘One Night Over Sweden’ can be viewed at: https://vimeo.com/520042108 The next conference is expected to take place in 2022. For further information contact: Captain Tristan Loraine Conference Director 2021 Aircraft Cabin Air Conference Email: conference@aircraftcabinair.com Conference website: https://www.aircraftcabinair.com/ Telephone: +44 (0) 7968 213862 Notes to editors: • Cabin breathing air on all aircraft apart from the Boeing 787 is taken directly from the engines and provided unfiltered to the aircraft. This is known as 'Bleed Air'. • Bleed air is known to become contaminated with engine oils and/or hydraulic fluids. These are hazardous including to the unborn. • Contaminated bleed air events have been recognised as occurring since the 1950s. • No aircraft currently flying has any form of detection system fitted to warn when these events occur. • Flight safety is being compromised by contaminated air events. • Crew and passengers have been reporting short and long-term health effects as a consequence of exposure to contaminated air. • Contaminated air events are not rare and known to be under reported. • Passengers are never told about the risks or these exposures or when they have been exposed. • In 2010, the High Court of Australia upheld a ruling that inhaling heated engine oil fumes were harmful (Joanne Turner case) and twenty-one years after the Compensation Court of New South Wales in Australia ruled, on 28 April 1999 in the Alysia Chew case. Alysia Chew had flown for Ansett and East West Airlines and had been exposed to fumes on the BAe 146 between January 1992 and October 1993. The New South Wales Compensation Court reviewed her claim that she was: “exposed to fumes, toxic substances and other irritants whilst carrying out her duties as a flight attendant” and ruled she had: “Suffered injury arising out of and in the course of her employment”. • Two recent feature documentaries have been released on these issues ‘Everybody Flies’ (2019) and ‘American 965’ (2021). https://pressat.co.uk/releases/largest-conference-ever-held-on-contaminated-air-on-aircraft-concludes-effective-bleed-air-filters-and-sensors-should-be-installed-on-passenger-jet-and-turboprop-aircraft-e94c91f79efa99b6ab04f7ea337ece4d/ Study Predicts Pilot Shortage Will Return by 2022 While the pandemic alleviated the pilot shortage almost overnight a year ago, the shortage could reemerge within nine months and grow worse over the decade, according to a study released yesterday by global management consulting firm Oliver Wyman. In fact, the study estimates that the global demand for pilots on Jan. 1, 2022, will be 326,594 versus a supply of 316,435; by 2029, the study predicted, those numbers will be 416,709 and 357,214, respectively—a nearly 60,000-pilot shortfall. The root cause of the coming shortage varies by region, the study said. “In the U.S., it’s an aging workforce facing mandatory retirement, fewer pilots exiting the military, and barriers to entry, including the cost of training,” the report noted. “In China and other regions where a burgeoning middle class is demanding air travel, the struggle is to expand capacity fast enough.” Meanwhile, the pandemic has caused airlines to curtail cadet programs as they furloughed pilots and banks reduced lending for pilot training, creating a pilot-supply shock and causing pilot candidates to think twice about entering such a cyclical industry. “With the global nature of this shock, we believe 25,000 to 35,000 current and future pilots may choose alternative career paths over the next decade,” the study said. Though many furloughed pilots will return, some might pursue other opportunities, according to the study. Additionally, airlines in some regions have relied heavily on early retirements to reduce costs, which permanently decreases the supply. “The most important question is not whether a pilot shortage will reemerge, but when it will occur and how large the gap will be between supply and demand,” the study concluded. https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/business-aviation/2021-03-23/study-predicts-pilot-shortage-will-return-2022 Amazon airline ATSG touts red-hot business for cargo jet leases Executives at Air Transport Services Group, which provides aircraft and outsourced cargo transport for Amazon’s private airline, say the rise in pandemic-related e-commerce is stimulating heavy demand for flying and leasing Boeing 767 freighters, and that new long-term leases will provide ongoing revenue long after the current freight peak subsides. The provider of bundled air transport services is completely sold out with 15 leases this year, including 11 for Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), and already has firm orders for nine of the midsize widebody aircraft next year, Chief Commercial Officer Mike Berger said Wednesday during an investor presentation. The company, headquartered in Wilmington, Ohio, has capacity for a few more leases in 2022 and is seeing interest from several customers for leases beginning as far out as 2025, he added. Last year, Air Transport Services Group (NASDAQ: ATSG) delivered 11 newly converted 767-300 aircraft, including five with UPS. Not only is the aviation services company placing record numbers of new freighters into service, but it is turning around 767s it gets back for new leases faster than ever, CEO Rich Corrado said during last month’s earnings call. ATSG’s revenue grew 8% last year to $1.6 billion. Operating income grew 16.6% to $206 million, and adjusted pretax earnings grew 10% to $497 million. Revenue fell below expectations in the fourth quarter because of lower demand for its passenger and military personnel charters. Many of the planes leased by subsidiary Cargo Aircraft Management are going to new international customers, such as MasAir in Mexico, Astral Aviation in Kenya and Raya Airways in Malaysia. “We’re confident that we’ll be able to deploy more of our 767s outside the U.S. in this and future years,” Corrado said. In January, CAM agreed to buy two 767 passenger jets from Air Canada, convert them to freighters and lease them back to Air Canada, which has decided to add an all-cargo division for the first time. The company is purchasing 13 767s for freighter conversion this year, on top of the eight aircraft already in or awaiting conversion at the end of 2020, it said in its earnings report. The e-commerce wave is turbocharging ATSG’s business. Global airfreight capacity has shrunk by nearly 20% because of reduced passenger flying, but demand to ship industrial and retail goods, food products, and COVID vaccines is soaring. Leading the demand curve is e-commerce as people following stay-at-home guidance spend more money on goods than services. As a core carrier for Amazon Air and express delivery giant DHL, ATSG is directly benefiting from the shift to online shopping. The airfreight market is forecast to grow to $377 billion at a compound annual rate of 5.6% through 2027, market research firm Valuates said Thursday. Amazon earlier this month invested more than $131 million for a 19.5% share in ATSG. CFO Quint Turner said he expects the U.S. Department of Transportation to approve the share purchase by the second half of May and that the proceeds will be used to pay down debt. The company’s strong cash flow is sufficient to cover expansion needs, Turner added, and it is prohibited until the second quarter of 2022, under terms of the federal aid from last year’s CARES Act, from rewarding investors in the form of stock buybacks or dividends. Amazon recently purchased 11 aircraft on its own for the first time, and Cargo Facts reported this week that it had awarded ATSG subsidiary Air Transport International the contract to operate the first 767-300 out of conversion. ATSG’s business model of leasing aircraft to integrated logistics companies and other carriers, and then layering on services such as crews to fly the aircraft, maintenance and ground handling, diversifies revenue and insulates the company from cyclical changes that impact pure charter operators. “The pandemic spurred demand for leased assets, so long after the pandemic is over we’re going to continue to get long-term returns on the base assets that we lease,” Corrado said Wednesday at Sidoti & Co.’s virtual investor conference. Securing assets There is plenty of potential feedstock for ATSG, which owned 106 aircraft at the end of 2020, to expand its fleet. About two-thirds of the 300 767s still operating as passenger aircraft would make good conversion candidates based on their age, Berger said. Several airlines, such as Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL), WestJet and Austrian Airlines, retired their 767s last year as they downsized to save money during the industry’s depression. Aviation experts say carriers are likely to only bring back smaller, younger and more technologically advanced aircraft that deliver greater yield, which could put many 767s in the secondary market. One of the limiting factors for expanding the global pool of all-cargo aircraft is the finite number of conversion facilities at maintenance and engineering shops. “We’re in good shape in terms of conversion slots” because ATSG has been an anchor customer of Israel Aircraft Industries for two decades and has access to four lines in Tel Aviv at all times, Berger said. U.S. e-commerce grew about 40% last year and now represents about 20% of total retail sales, compared to about 14% in 2019. But Berger said during the earnings call that global e-commerce activity is catching up too in areas where ATSG is starting to grow. ATSG, for example, is leasing more aircraft into Latin America and Africa, where e-commerce is growing 36% and 20%, respectively. “As we penetrate new markets, that’s what makes us really excited,” he said. “It’s not only our dry lease piece, it’s where they’re going to and who our customers are serving. And that plays right into where the growth engine is and that’s e-commerce and m-commerce across the board.” https://www.freightwaves.com/news/amazon-airline-atsg-touts-red-hot-business-for-cargo-jet-leases Boeing Poised to Deliver 787 Jets After Five-Month Drought (Bloomberg) -- Boeing Co. is poised to resume delivering its 787 Dreamliners this week, ending a five-month halt while the planemaker’s mechanics searched for tiny structural flaws in the carbon-fiber aircraft, said people familiar with the matter. The initial shipment is expected as soon as Friday, with Boeing likely to hand over two or three of the jets this month, said the people, who asked not to be named as the matter is confidential. The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration said late Thursday that it cleared two of the four planes on which it had conducted special inspections, and had yet to complete checks of the other two. The renewed Dreamliner deliveries will ease the uncertainty that had been building around Boeing’s most advanced aircraft. The drought in shipments of the wide-body plane added to the company’s cash pressures, with more than 80 undelivered Dreamliners stacked up around Boeing factories and in a desert storage lot in Victorville, California. “We continue to expect to resume delivering 787s by the end of March,” Boeing said in an emailed statement, without providing specific timing. “However, we will continue to take the time necessary and will adjust any delivery plans as needed. We remain in constant and transparent communication with our customers and regulators.” Shares of the aircraft manufacturer reversed declines early in the trading session and rose 3.3% to $247.19 at the close in New York, the largest gainer on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The FAA’s action cleared the way for Boeing to deliver two Dreamliners, and signaled that the regulator found that the company’s revised processes for building 787 jets met safety standards. The agency didn’t address whether it would allow Boeing to begin delivering the remaining Dreamliners that have accumulated during the delivery halt, or whether it will conduct additional inspections on other aircraft. The FAA said it expected to complete inspection of the other two 787s that its engineers are reviewing in the coming days. “The FAA’s top priority is ensuring the safety of the traveling public,” the regulator said in an emailed statement. “Today, the FAA issued a certificate of airworthiness for two of the four Boeing 787s for which the agency retained that authority. The FAA acted after thorough inspections confirmed the aircraft complied with all airworthiness standards.” Lessor Delivery Air Lease Corp., which had called attention to the “mushrooming” inspections, expects to take delivery of a Dreamliner the week of March 29, Steven Udvar-Hazy, the leasing company’s founder and chairman, said Thursday. United Airlines Holdings Inc. also is at the front of the line and could receive one or more 787-9 models as soon as Friday once U.S. regulators approve repairs made by Boeing’s mechanics and engineers, two of the people said. United declined to comment. The Chicago-based airline needs the new long-range 787s to help with the loss of its older Boeing 777-200 fleet, which has been sidelined for engine inspections after a turbofan blew apart last month during a departure from Denver. Boeing executives had pledged to restart deliveries this quarter as the company recovers from one of the toughest years in its century-long history. After burning through $20 billion last year, the planemaker’s path to generating cash over the next two years depends on its ability to unwind more than 500 jets -- mainly Dreamliners and the 737 Max -- that have stacked up. Aircraft ‘Nonconformities’ The tiny wrinkles or “noncomformities” first cropped up as an issue last year when Boeing grounded eight recently-delivered Dreamliners for emergency repairs. While reviewing factory data, it discovered computer-generated fillers known as shims didn’t fully close gaps in an inner lining where two carbon-fiber segments joined to form the rear of the 787’s airframe. Over subsequent months, the tiny dimples were found in the horizontal stabilizer, forward fuselage join and forward cargo door, Douglas Harned, an analyst at Bernstein, wrote in a March 17 report. Boeing also discovered an unrelated issue that required additional testing: a supplier had changed the manufacturing process for the flight-deck windows. Since Boeing had signaled 787 deliveries would probably restart this month, the main concern going forward is clearing out its storage lots, Harned said. “We see the important point as being primarily the rate over the course of this year, rather than the timing of the first delivery.” The FAA told Boeing in a Jan. 11 letter that its inspectors would conduct the final sign-off of four 787s, and potentially more as a “corrective action” to address the production issues. The agency normally deputizes Boeing employees to conduct what it calls Certificates of Airworthiness inspections. ”We do not comment on ongoing certification activities,” the agency said in response to query about the deliveries. https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/boeing-poised-deliver-787-jets-155534956.html SpaceX launches 60 more Starlink satellites, making 240 launched this month alone SpaceX has added yet more Starlink satellites to its existing constellation on orbit, with a successful delivery of 60 spacecraft this morning from Cape Canaveral in Florida. The mission used a Falcon 9 with a flight-proven booster that served on five previous launches, and a cargo fairing cover made up of two re-used halves from past flights. This is the fourth Starlink launch in less than a month, with prior batches of 60 sent up on March 14, March 11 and March 4, respectively. In total, that means it's sent up 240 satellites in about three weeks, which is actually around on par with the number of satellites than the second-largest commercial constellation operator, Planet, has in space in total. The stated goal for SpaceX is to have launched 1,500 Starlink satellites in 2020; given its progress, it looks on track to make that target at the current launch pace. Starlink should eventually grow to include as many as 10,000 or more active satellites in low-Earth orbit, but the near-term goal is to continue expanding geographic coverage of its broadband internet service to additional countries and customers. SpaceX flies Falcon 9 rocket booster for a record 9th time, delivers 3rd batch of Starlink satellites in two weeks Right now, it seems like the beta service rollout is more hardware-constrained on the ground component side, since SpaceX earlier this year opened up pre-orders to anyone in a geography it services. Customers signing up now for the Starlink antenna and modem kit are getting delivery times that extend out to the end of this year, even in areas where service is known to be available and performing well for existing beta users. Starlink could become a massive revenue driver for SpaceX once it's fully operational, and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has said the plan is to eventually spin the company out once it's past the initial infrastructure investment phase and revenues have stabilized. So far, customers seem to be having a positive experience with the network in terms of speed and reliability relative to other rural broadband solutions, but the next big test will come once the network is experience heavy load in terms of customer volume. https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/spacex-launches-60-more-starlink-122109394.html Curt Lewis