Flight Safety Information - May 20, 2021 No. 101 In This Issue : Incident: North Cariboo DH8C at Calgary on Apr 29th 2021, engine rolled back : Incident: Max B733 at Kano on May 18th 2021, bird strike : Yakovlev Yak-130 - Fatal Accident on Takeoff (Belarus) : American Airlines flight diverted to Seattle over an ‘unruly passenger’ : Exclusive: American Airlines' largest regional carrier gets FAA warning investigation looks into carrier's pilot safety practices : WC-130J Aircraft makes emergency landing at Gulfport-Biloxi International Airport : U.S. lawmakers to propose tax credit for sustainable aviation fuel : Four Of Singapore Airlines’ Boeing 777-300ERs Removed From Service : U.S. airlines scramble to find call center staff as travel returns : Air Force Can Retire KC-135, Transcom Commander Says : Loss of staff and aircraft to prevent quick aviation rebound -IATA head : ATP PLANS TO TRAIN 20,000 PILOTS : How space weather could wreck NASA’s return to the moon : Position Available: Maintenance Controller/Maintenance Technician : Graduate Survey : Today's Photo Incident: North Cariboo DH8C at Calgary on Apr 29th 2021, engine rolled back A North Cariboo Air de Havilland Dash 8-300, registration C-GLWN performing flight NCB-4098 from Calgary,AB to Primrose,AB (Canada) with 3 crew, was climbing through about 16700 feet out of Calgary when the crew received indications of the left hand engine (PW123) torque rolling back. No additional indications, changes of parameters or cautions occurred. The crew declared emergency, worked the related checklists and diverted to Edmonton International Airport,AB (Canada) for a safe landing. The Canadian TSB reported maintenance determined after studying the FDR data, that the #1 Engine Electronic Controller had an intermittent fault. The EEC was replaced, the engine was checked without any further anomaly and the aircraft was returned to service. https://avherald.com/h?article=4e7a4b4f&opt=0 Incident: Max B733 at Kano on May 18th 2021, bird strike A Max Air Boeing 737-300, registration 5N-BBM performing flight VM-1645 from Kano to Abuja (Nigeria) with 140 people on board, was climbing out of Kano when one of the engines ingested a bird prompting the crew to shut the engine down and return to Kano for a safe landing about 10 minutes after departure. Nigeria's NCAA reported 3 fan blades were damaged. https://avherald.com/h?article=4e7a46d1&opt=0 Yakovlev Yak-130 - Fatal Accident on Takeoff (Belarus) Date: 19-MAY-2021 Time: Type: Yakovlev Yak-130 Owner/operator: Belarus Air Force Registration: 74 Red MSN: 130.11.00-1004 Fatalities: Fatalities: 2 / Occupants: 2 Other fatalities: 0 Aircraft damage: Written off (damaged beyond repair) Location: Baranovichi - Belarus Phase: Unknown Nature: Military Departure airport: Baranavichi Air Base (UMMA) Destination airport: Narrative: The aircraft crashed in a residential area during an attempted takeoff from Baranovichi Baranovichi Air Base (116 Attack Airbase) during an instructional flight. https://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/261852 American Airlines flight diverted to Seattle over an ‘unruly passenger’ SEA-TAC, Wash. — A flight originally headed from Tokyo Narita to Dallas-Forth Worth was diverted to Seattle on Wednesday morning due to an “unruly passenger,” according to a statement from American Airlines. A passenger on American Airlines flight 60 was creating a disturbance which included flailing about and making loud noises, according to a source familiar to the event. The crew attempted to deescalate the situation and the decision was then made to divert the plane to SeaTac to remove the passenger from the flight. A Port of Seattle representative confirmed that a “reported unruly passenger was deplaned” and taken into custody by federal officials. The plane refueled and departed about 11:39 a.m. Sixty-three passengers and 13 crew members were on the flight, according American Airlines. https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/american-airlines-flight-diverted-seattle-over-security-event-involving-an-unruly-passenger/3M77VR4CBFG6LGN5WN7WN5XORI/ Exclusive: American Airlines' largest regional carrier gets FAA warning investigation looks into carrier's pilot safety practices Washington, DC (CNN) A commuter jet was seconds away from landing at a regional airport in Illinois last March when the pilots realized they'd made a potentially fatal mistake: They were aimed at the wrong runway. Had the plane not diverted at the last second, there was a "high probability" the plane would not have had room to stop, an inspector later concluded, which would have been a "potentially catastrophic situation." This close call is one of multiple instances of alleged pilot error included in a Federal Aviation Administration warning to Envoy Air, the largest regional carrier for American Airlines. An FAA document detailing the agency's findings dated from January and obtained exclusively by CNN describes "consistent evidence showing potential lack of airmanship," unsafe and poor piloting by multiple Envoy Air flight crews over the past two years. The incidents raise concerns, some experts say, that some regional services -- generally contracted operators or sister companies to the big airlines -- are still not operating at the same safety level of mainline carriers. FAA Administrator Steve Dickson told CNN in an interview that the probe is "based on data that we have been able to glean by working with the operator to identify where there might be areas of emerging risk that they need to focus on." He said the goal is to ensure Envoy Air is "not only compliant but operating safely." Envoy Air is not a household name, but it is owned by American Airlines and its planes connect smaller cities nationwide with American's hubs like Dallas-Fort Worth, Chicago, and Miami. It flies 185 American Eagle-branded aircraft on 1,000 daily flights to over 150 destinations in the United States, Canada and Mexico. Unseasoned fliers may not even notice that a flight is operated by Envoy Air and not an American crew. Besides checking the itinerary for a regional name such as American Eagle, passengers can look for a smaller plane -- generally 100 seats or less -- or tighter seating configurations, like only one or two seats on either side of the aisle. The company told CNN it has been working with the FAA and pilot union "to transparently and collaboratively examine the root cause of each potential issue and take any necessary corrective actions if needed." "Nothing is more important than the safety of our customers and employees," Envoy spokeswoman Minnette Vélez-Conty said in a statement. "If issues are raised -- either internally by our team or by the FAA -- we work to address them immediately." The document is a letter from an FAA inspector to Envoy Air CEO Pedro Fábregas detailing nine concerning incidents in 2019 and 2020. The FAA wrote it will work with the airline to develop an "action plan" to resolve the "unsafe operational trends." The FAA declined to provide further information or share the plan citing the "pending investigation," and the airline did not provide any records to document that it had resolved the concerns. Dickson did not specify whether the FAA is also probing other regional carriers. But he said that one of the agency's teams has "identified a number of safety elements for airlines and other aviation safety stakeholders to examine," including the qualification standards for pilots and whether skills degraded during pandemic-related downtime. 'We're sliding' A passenger on at least one of the flights captured the incident on camera. It was a November 2019 Envoy Air flight landing at the Chicago O'Hare International Airport, and the plane slid on the snowy runway. One passenger later told reporters in the airport that it was the plane's second attempt at a landing. "We're sliding, we're sliding," someone in the cabin is heard saying as the plane veers to the side. "No, no, no," another person calls out. The FAA concluded that air traffic controllers had not provided updated weather information,, and it ultimately announced a $1.6 million fine against the Chicago Department of Aviation for "failing to ensure safe airline operations during snowy and wet runway conditions" that day. But it also found that other flight crews had realized the poor conditions and aborted their plans to land. "Perhaps more experience for this crew would have prevented this incident," the FAA inspector wrote. Last June, an Envoy Air crew attempting to leave Dallas Fort Worth were stopped by a warning from the plane's computer. When it alerted them of an incorrect setting, they realized they had not actually completed the mandatory checklist to prepare for takeoff, according to the documents CNN obtained. "Not doing your preflight checklist for takeoff is a potentially fatal mistake that cannot be overlooked," said Peter Goelz, a former managing director at the National Transportation Safety Board and a CNN aviation analyst. Lingering safety questions The FAA raised concerns with systematic issues, rather than identifying the problems as solely the fault of particular crewmembers. "These events are representative of the more serious operational events that evidence poor airmanship trends, among other issues," the FAA wrote to Envoy Air. "Collectively, these narratives point to issues that are deeper than what spot training or counseling have been able to resolve." The document described one unnamed pilot who challenged the results of a failed a flight proficiency test as someone who "truly lacked knowledge concerning what is acceptable." The airline said several of the incidents identified in the FAA letter were identified by its safety program, which includes weekly meetings between Envoy and the FAA. "We regularly share this data with the FAA to enhance the overall safety of our airline and the industry, and will continue to do so," the airline said. The documents come more than a decade after sweeping reforms were put in place to tighten piloting qualifications and training at airlines. The 2009 crash of Colgan Air flight 3407, which killed 50 people, led the FAA to change regulations including increasing the amount of experience required to fly for an airline. There has not been a fatal airline crash in the US since. "The FAA is cracking down on Envoy, but you wonder if the other regionals are facing similar problems," said Goelz, the former NTSB official. A series of incidents led the FAA in the mid-1990s to re-write its rules and start holding regional and mainline carriers to the same safety standards. The standards, for example, now require the same minimum number of flight hours to work for both a regional and mainline airline. "These documents show there's a still a long way to go and that the FAA needs to double down on the oversight of regional carriers, particularly during times of financial stress," Goelz said. The Air Line Pilots Association, representing nearly 60,000 members at 35 carriers, said safety practices in the industry have "proven an effective safeguard to detect any circumstances that could affect safety." "The airline piloting profession in North America is one of the most highly scrutinized careers, and airline pilots' professionalism has contributed to making air transportation the safest form of transport for passengers and air cargo shippers," the group said in a statement. Regional carriers including Envoy Air play a critical role in the US aviation industry, serving both to connect smaller airports with larger cities and hubs, and as a launching pad for young pilots to start their airline careers The pay is lower than at the mainline carriers, and competition between the regionals for contracts with the mainline carriers is fierce. Four regional carriers closed during the pandemic -- including ExpressJet, which in early 2020 announced it would expand its fleet to serve United Airlines. Within a few months, United needed fewer regional seats and rival CommutAir won the bidding war. Regional carriers operate about 40% of scheduled passenger flights, according to the Regional Airline Association. The group says about 6-in-10 US airports are served only by regional carriers, rather than mainline service. Pilot skills and safety are coming into the spotlight again. Carriers are calling back crews who were sidelined during the pandemic -- and some admit not flying in weeks or months. After a hiatus from the cockpit last year, one pilot highlighted the issue in a government report: "We definitely need to be more aware of how much our proficiency decreases as we are flying less." Dickson acknowledged the data-driven safety approach to aviation has been partly thrown off by the pandemic, including parked planes and sidelined crews. "Covid has introduced a whole new set of risks," he said. "We need to be a little bit circumspect and understand that there's been a lot of turnover. ... And so we need to be extra vigilant as the system ramps up." https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/19/business/american-airlines-envoy-air/index.html WC-130J Aircraft makes emergency landing at Gulfport-Biloxi International Airport An aircraft from Keesler Air Force Base had to make an emergency landing this afternoon at the Gulfport-Biloxi International Airport. According to the 403rd Wing on Twitter, one of their WC-130J Aircrafts had an in-flight emergency due to a mechanical issue which happened during a training flight. The crew landed safely at Gulfport-Biloxi International Airport and are safe and doing well. The WC-130J Aircrafts in the 403rd Wing are the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters. https://www.wxxv25.com/2021/05/19/mc-130j-aircraft-makes-emergency-landing-gulfport-biloxi-international-airport/ U.S. lawmakers to propose tax credit for sustainable aviation fuel U.S. lawmakers plan to introduce a bill on Thursday that would create a tax credit for lower-carbon sustainable aviation fuel, which they hope will slash emissions of greenhouse gases from the aviation industry. The legislation, seen by Reuters, would impose a tax incentive of up to $2.00 for every gallon produced of sustainable aviation fuel, which can be made from feedstocks such as grease, animal fats and plant oils. That price would make it one of the most expensive subsidies for clean fuel. The United States uses about 45 million gallons per day of jet fuel, or about 6% of total petroleum use, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. U.S. Representatives Brad Schneider, a Democrat from Illinois, Dan Kildee, a Democrat from Michigan, and Julia Brownley, a Democrat from California, are expected to introduce the bill. Lawmakers have been pushing for measures to fight climate change as President Joe Biden's administration has called for the U.S. economy to have net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, meaning removing as much carbon from the atmosphere as is emitted. It was not immediately clear whether the sustainable aviation fuel bill would have Republican support. Republicans have opposed the administration's climate policies, arguing they risk damaging the economy by hurting the drilling and mining industries. Airlines and renewable fuel companies in recent months have been lobbying the federal government to support development of sustainable aviation fuel, saying this is necessary to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from aircraft. Air travel contributes around 2% of global emissions, according to the Air Transport Action Group, a coalition of aviation experts focused on sustainability issues. Climate groups, such as the Environmental Defense Fund and the World Wildlife Fund, as well as industry groups, like United Airlines and Airlines for America, support the bill. "In addition to improving aircraft efficiency and reducing excess flying, scaling use of sustainable aviation fuel is critical for the aviation sector to reduce its fair share of carbon emissions for a safe climate future," said John Holler, senior program officer for climate cooperation and sustainable fuels at World Wildlife Fund. While U.S. sustainable aviation fuel use has risen in recent years, it remains a fraction of the larger traditional petroleum-based jet fuel market. Producers of sustainable aviation fuel can earn the tax credit if the fuel achieves at least a 50% lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions reduction compared with petroleum-based jet fuel, according to the legislation. The credit would expire at the end of 2031. A coalition of trade groups representing pilots, flight attendants and other aviation industry personnel, sent a letter and documents on Tuesday to Congressional committee members that outlined ways to reduce carbon emissions. Solutions included the tax credit. https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/us-lawmakers-propose-tax-credit-sustainable-aviation-fuel-2021-05-20/ Four Of Singapore Airlines’ Boeing 777-300ERs Removed From Service Singapore Airlines has retired four of its Boeing 777-300ERs as part of its fleet rightsizing plans. The carrier will now only operate 23 of the type as the flagship aircraft becomes the Airbus A350. Let’s find out more about Singapore Airlines’ fleet strategy. Reduction Singapore Airlines (SIA) announced the fleet reductions during its earning presentation for the last fiscal year. In addition to the $3.2 billion loss, the carrier also retired 45 aircraft ahead of schedule, paying a costly $1.3bn in impairment charges. As part of these changes, SIA announced that it had retired four 777-300ERs (777Ws) in the second half of 2020. While the exact aircraft being removed are unknown, the carrier currently has 18 planes sitting on the ground due to the crisis (and only nine flying). The retirement of the once-flagship 777-300ERs signals the downturn long-haul travel has taken in the last year. With passenger numbers down nearly 98%, it makes little sense to keep these higher-capacity aircraft in service for now. Plus, with the fleet aging rapidly and crossing the 11-year-mark (according to Planespotters.net), a renewal was on the cards. The age of the 77Ws varies widely, with the oldest being nearly 15 years old and the youngest just under five. Premium-heavy As a full-service carrier, Singapore Airlines’ 777-300ERs are particularly premium heavy. In a four-class layout, the aircraft seats four passengers in first class, 48 in business, 28 in premium economy, and 184 in economy. With only 264 seats, this is definitely one of the lighter 77Ws currently flying. For comparison, even United’s equivalent seats 350 passengers. The 777-300ERs were found on some of Singapore Airlines’ most important routes globally. This included the SQ1 service (Singapore-Hong Kong-San Francisco), flights to Australia, New Zealand, the UK, Japan, South Korea, and several others. For now, the retirement of four 777-300ERs is unlikely to impact Singapore Airlines’ operations. The carrier is only flying to a quarter of its previous destinations (47), leaving dozens of aircraft on the ground. Room for the 777X In February, Singapore Airlines made a surprise announced that it would be ordering 11 new 777Xs as part of its order deal with Boeing. While the airline also canceled 14 787s, this was a huge boost to the struggling 777X program during these tough times for long-haul travel. Notably, the 777-9s are scheduled to replace some of the older 777s in the fleet, including some -300ERs. This means SIA has simply brought forward retirements by a few years, reducing the fleet size temporarily. Singapore Airlines will replace many of its 777s with the 777X. Photo: Boeing For now, SIA is hoping for a recovery of the aviation industry over the next year. While traffic numbers have been improving, they remain a fraction of pre-pandemic levels. However, if all goes well, this year could be the beginning of a sustained recovery. https://simpleflying.com/4-singapore-airlines-777s-removed/ U.S. airlines scramble to find call center staff as travel returns U.S. airlines are scrambling to add staff and upgrade technology as they face anger over prolonged call center wait times while tackling a surge in air travel following COVID-19 vaccinations. "#Delta 9 hours wait on hold is this a way to run an airline," read one Twitter post from a Delta Air Lines (DAL.N) customer. After a year of being cooped up, travelers are balancing the prospect of sunshine in Florida or fresh mountain air in Montana and Wyoming - among the fastest growing U.S. travel markets - with frustrations during the booking process. By July, U.S. domestic air fares and capacity could approach pre-pandemic levels, according to experts, but overall staffing at the three legacy carriers shrunk by roughly 20% last year. While travelers can easily book new vacations online for flight changes or travel credits -- transactions that have soared during the pandemic -- they often need to go through call centers, which are also managing a flurry of questions about COVID-19 travel restrictions and requirements. To support the increase in call volumes, Delta is adding staffing and overtime, hiring temporary summer contract workers and fast-tracking technology upgrades to self-service options, a spokesman said. "Our wait times are not currently where we'd like to them to be," he said. American Airlines (AAL.O) said it is hiring hundreds of reservations agents to help with the rise in calls, while United Airlines (UAL.O) said it is working to shorten hold times through increased staffing and technology upgrades, without providing details. U.S. airlines received billions of dollars in government aid to pay salaries and protect jobs during the pandemic but also encouraged workers to take voluntary leave packages to slim staffing because they didn't know how long the crisis, or the government aid, would last. Willie Walsh, the head of the International Air Transport Association, said on Wednesday that the decisions by carriers across the globe to retire aircraft and make staff redundant could hamper the aviation industry's recovery. read more An explosion in U.S. domestic leisure travel demand as more Americans become vaccinated has taken many in the industry by surprise, leaving services from airports to rental car companies and hotels short-staffed. The strength of the rebound has possible implications beyond the airline industry since economists say air traffic is closely tied to overall economic output and is frequently seen as a guide to consumer confidence. However, analyst John Grant of flight data specialist OAG warned on Wednesday that U.S. domestic airline traffic may be "overheating," suggesting that legacy carriers are likely to reshape their networks toward more international markets once they reopen. Still, Grant said plans by U.S. ultra low-cost carriers and start-ups to build domestic capacity "has to be good news for all airports of all sizes across the United States in the next few years." https://www.reuters.com/world/the-great-reboot/us-airlines-scramble-find-call-center-staff-travel-returns-2021-05-19/ Air Force Can Retire KC-135, Transcom Commander Says U.S. Transportation Command is responsible for moving people and materiel around the globe in support of the nation's defense needs. It relies, in part, on the use of the Air Force's aircraft to do that. When the Air Force hoped to retire some aircraft within the KC-135 Stratotanker fleet in order to make way for the new refueling aircraft, the KC-46 Pegasus — which was delayed — Army Gen. Stephen R. Lyons, commander of Transcom, thought it inadvisable. But that is no longer the case. "At that time, the ... implications for day-to-day operations were significant," Lyons told lawmakers yesterday before a hearing at the House Armed Services Committee. "Since that time, the United States Air Force has done some incredible work, first to make sure that Boeing is signed up to complete the work that they're under contract to complete. Second, to work through some interim capability releases to allow us to use the KC-46 in operations." Lyons said that while the KC-46 refueling aircraft is not compatible now with every aircraft that might need to be refueled, it's compatible "across a large portion" of them. The Air Force has also delayed retirement of some KC-10 Extender aircraft, Lyons said. And this puts Transcom in a good position, Lyons added. "I really appreciate the support of the Air Force," Lyons said. "I've talked to the chief about this, I think we're in a very good place. I do think it's the right decision to allow the Air Force to retire the KC-135s that they requested to retire." Transcom is also responsible for the movement of household goods when service members make a permanent change of station. To better serve customers there, Lyons told lawmakers, improvements are underway to better assess how customers rate their experiences with the contract movers Transcom uses to move service members. Right now, less than a third of customers respond to post-move surveys. "When we look at the survey information that comes in, our estimate is about 30% of the customers ... respond on surveys," Lyons said. "My guess is we get both extremes. But we could do better in that population. We have taken initiative and have put a company under contract to improve our survey process, and that's underway at the moment ... to make sure it's more accurate, more thorough, easy, and the analytics on the backend are more meaningful to drive better business decisions. That's one of many initiatives in the area of defense personal property reform." https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/2624266/air-force-can-retire-kc-135-transcom-commander-says/ Loss of staff and aircraft to prevent quick aviation rebound -IATA head It will take several years for the global aviation industry to recover to 2019 capacity levels as airlines have retired aircraft and made critical staff redundant, the head of the global airline industry body IATA said on Wednesday. "The ability for the industry to recover to the 2019 levels of capacity quickly is now impossible," IATA Director General Willie Walsh told an Irish parliamentary committee. "The reason I say that is ... we have seen a lot of aircraft have been returned. So therefore the aircraft are not available. A lot of critical staff, unfortunately, have been made redundant." https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/loss-staff-aircraft-prevent-quick-aviation-rebound-iata-head-2021-05-19/ ATP PLANS TO TRAIN 20,000 PILOTS DALLAS TRAINING CENTER OPENS ATP Flight School opened an advanced pilot training center at Arlington Municipal Airport near Dallas that may help stem a pilot shortage that temporarily waned but did not halt during the coronavirus pandemic. The new Texas location augments the firm’s 30-year presence in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. The 13,875-square-foot facility includes classroom space, dedicated pilot briefing space, an advanced simulator bay with multiple flight training devices, and an adjoining 12,000-square-foot maintenance center. The training center was developed for efficiency with an eye on the ATP Airline Career Pilot Program. "The increased capabilities of the new Arlington flight training center will be crucial in meeting the training demands of the post-pandemic pilot shortage," said ATP Director of Marketing Michael Arnold. ATP currently operates 62 locations and plans to train 20,000 airline pilots by 2030. The company is accepting delivery of 100 Piper Archer training aircraft ordered in 2018 and has hiring partnerships with 30 regional airlines. https://www.aopa.org/news-and-media/all-news/2021/may/12/atp-plans-to-train-20000-pilots How space weather could wreck NASA’s return to the moon A new study suggests that extreme solar activity might make future Artemis missions too dangerous to launch later this decade. Is NASA really going to return humans to the moon in 2024? That was the increasingly unlikely mandate issued to the agency by the Trump administration. President Biden hasn’t changed that goal yet, although most experts expect him to give NASA some much-needed breathing room and reset that deadline for later in the decade. The problem is, 2024 might actually be a safer option. A new study published in the journal Solar Physics suggests there’s a heightened risk of space weather events—storms of radiation and supercharged solar particles—in the latter half of the decade. This would pose increased danger to any crewed missions to the moon between 2026 and 2029. If NASA is serious about getting back to the moon and wants to keep astronauts as safe as possible, it may be prudent to accelerate efforts to ensure that it happens before 2026—or wait till the decade is over. “Space weather was certainly overlooked at the start of the space age, but it is being taken increasingly seriously, both in terms of terrestrial impacts and for space exploration,” says Matthew Owens, a space physicist from the University of Reading in the UK and the lead author of the new study. “The study was intended to look at extreme space weather in general, rather than specifically in relation to lunar exploration. Only in putting the various findings together to try to make a forecast of the probability of extreme space weather over the coming 11-year cycle did the implications for lunar exploration become apparent.” Yes, there’s weather in space. The surface of the sun erupts with gas and plasma, ejecting charged particles (protons, electrons, and heavy ions) into the rest of the solar system at millions of miles per hour. These particles can strike Earth and the moon in just a matter of minutes. Earth’s magnetic field protects us from them, but the particles can still fry electronics and power grids on the surface and damage critical satellites that manage GPS and telecommunications services. Space weather could be extremely dangerous for any astronauts flying to the moon or trying to live and work on a lunar outpost at the surface. Life support systems and power could shut down, and solar activity could produce life-threatening levels of radiation. “Between Apollo 16 and 17,” says Owens, “there was a huge space weather event that would have likely been fatal if astronauts had been on the moon at the time.” Every 11 years, the sun’s magnetic field flips—the north and south poles trade places—and solar activity rises and falls. You might think it’s wiser to launch during the solar minimum, but that’s not necessarily been the case, since low points of solar activity usually mean there’s more exposure to galactic cosmic rays (space radiation coming from outside the solar system). Moreover, the kind of space weather patterns we’ve been able to predict over time have to do with mild and moderate events, which don’t pose as much risk to crewed missions. But extreme solar storms—the kind that could really devastate a mission to the moon—occur at random. Many, like the infamous 1859 Carrington event, occurred during seemingly low solar activity. And these extreme events are very rare, making them hard to study. To bolster analysis of the little data that’s been available, Owens and his team developed probability models of extreme space weather based on 150 years of solar activity records. These models simulated different frequencies of extreme storms—one had them occurring randomly, another boosted the likelihood at solar maxima, and so on. After thousands of simulations, the researchers had enough data to determine what kinds of scenarios best aligned with what we currently know about how the sun works. They learned that extreme space weather follows the same general pattern as moderate weather: activity is higher during a solar maximum than a minimum, and severe events are more likely during stronger solar cycles than weaker ones. And there was also one very interesting nugget unique to extreme events: they tend to occur slightly later in odd-numbered solar cycles than even ones. We just started solar cycle 25 in December 2019. The solar maximum is broadly expected to happen in 2023–2029, so that should mark the nastiest time for space weather. “But because this is an odd cycle, the probability of extreme space weather is highest toward the end of that window—say, 2026–2029,” says Owens. The authors say that increased risk makes it unsafe to fly missions to the moon during that period. “We're not predicting the timing of individual events,” says Owens. “So the best advice we can give is about the probability of encountering an extreme event.” If a launch has to be delayed to 2026, it might be more desirable to delay it even further, to 2030. Otherwise, mission planners should ensure that a spacecraft has the right hardware to safeguard astronauts from an extreme event. After all, it’s not as if we can just bring astronauts back from the moon in time once we know a bad solar storm is on the way. Currently, our best warning systems for space weather give us a heads-up of a few hours to a few days—and those forecasts are even worse for predicting catastrophic storms. Dan Baker, a space physics researcher at the University of Colorado Boulder who was not involved with the study, thinks the findings stands up well, emphasizing that research like this “should be taken seriously and should be folded into [mission] planning.” But he’s not completely confident that the statistical work of this investigation should be adopted as a recommendation for scrubbing any lunar mission between 2026 and 2029. “Solar storm events and solar energetic particles are a very real risk for astronauts outside the protective envelope of Earth's magnetosphere,” he says. ”However, I think that prudent steps can be taken to guard against the effects of such severe space weather. With an active and effective operational space weather alert and warning system, I believe the threats can be made manageable.” Risks could be tolerable if there was, say, an early warning space weather system that observed the entire sun 24/7, and a module of a spacecraft or lunar outpost that could specifically protect astronauts from such events. Although an extreme event might be rare, it could mean the difference between life and death on a mission to the moon. Whether NASA and others are willing to take that risk remains to be seen. https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/05/20/1025087/space-weather-nasa-artemis-moon-mission/ Position Available: Maintenance Controller/Maintenance Technician FlightWorks, Inc. is growing, and we are seeking an experienced Maintenance Controller/Maintenance Technician to join our team for a high-volume full-time Part 91 and 135 opportunity based in Kennesaw, Georgia. This is a great opportunity to join one of the most trusted management companies in the industry with career growth potential. Must reside in or be willing to locate to Georgia. FlightWorks is not your typical aircraft management company. Our core values focus around Safety, Safety and FAA compliance are our top priorities, with exceptional service being a close second! Please see below for more details on our benefits package. The responsibilities consist of any and all tasks generally recognized as, but not limited to, a mechanic's work on or in reference to aircraft, its component parts and related equipment performed at line stations, major stations and shops. Mechanic/Technicians may be required to inspect and test systems, component parts used in their work and sign for the work performed. Must be capable of performing their work satisfactorily to our company standards. Sensitive material or subject matter may be discussed in your presence. Strict confidentiality must be adhered to. Mechanics/technicians may be required to instruct less experienced employees. Responsibilities: · Maintaining the many different types of aircraft operated by the company, in accordance with current FAA regulations, manufacturer's maintenance manuals, FlightWorks General Operations Manual (GOM) and FlightWorks General Maintenance Manual (GMM). · Maintain adequate tools necessary to perform all tasks on aircraft. The company will supply aircraft specific specialty tools. · Maintain a clean and orderly work area. This includes cleaning up after completion of a job and general housekeeping of hangar, shop, and office areas. · Completing all required documentation in accordance with current FAA regulations, FlightWorks General Operations Manual (GOM), and FlightWorks General Maintenance Manual (GMM). · Communicating aircraft discrepancy information, aircraft status, and changes in a timely manner to direct supervisor. · Performs all maintenance and repairs on aircraft for which s/he is assigned and qualified. · Approves aircraft for return to service after scheduled or unscheduled maintenance for which s/he is authorized and qualified. · Returns all equipment and tools checked out at end of work shift and reposition equipment in assigned area after use. · Reports all inoperative or faulty equipment to the Maintenance Supervisor in charge. · Performs duties of Maintenance Coordinator as qualified when assigned to that position by an authorized person. · Completes all paperwork for the maintenance s/he performs. · Assures that hangar workshops, and other areas assigned are maintained in an orderly manner. · Will have adequate tools to perform work. FlightWorks is not your typical aircraft management company. Our core values focus on Safety, Compliance and Service. As an example, all of our flight crews receive real prospective duty and rest assignments every duty day. We do not believe in the 24/7/365 on-call scheduling that so many other companies offer. Safety and FAA compliance are our top priorities, with exceptional service being a close second! Please see below for more details on our benefits package. Because FlightWorks cares about the health and well-being of our employees and their families, we offer a comprehensive benefits package. Full-Time Employee Benefits · Competitive salary · 401(k) retirement plan · Medical and dental insurance · Prescription drug plan · Vision care plan · Healthcare Reimbursement and Flexible Spending Accounts · Employee Assistance Program · Basic life and accidental death insurance, with optional elective coverage · Optional spouse and dependent life insurance · Short-term disability coverage and basic long-term disability insurance, with optional “buy-up” coverage. · Legal Shield and Identity Theft insurance · Pet Insurance Time Away From Work · Paid time off · Holiday pay (qualified employees) Qualifications · Must hold a valid A & P Certificate, IA preferred. · Must travel as necessary, for company business. · Must be able to be reached by telephone, cellular phone, and report to work at all times, except when prior arrangements have been made with maintenance supervisor. · Experience with Bombardier preferred. · Part 135 experience preferred. · Must stay up to date with current FlightWorks Policies and Procedures. · Must stay up to date with current Federal Aviation Regulations. · Must be willing to work nights, weekends and holidays. · Display initiative, integrity, and an overall positive attitude. · Be able to independently identify tasks that need to be accomplished. · Ask questions as they arise. · Be a "Team Player". This is a Safety Sensitive position and is subject to Random Drug and Alcohol testing. APPLY AT: www.flightworks.com/about/careers Graduate Survey My name is Pierre DION, I am an airline Captain and student at City, University of London doing an MSc in Air Safety Management. Department of Mathematics of City, University of London We are looking for volunteers to participate in a study of "Artificial Intelligence in Safety Management System". As a participant in this study, you would be asked to answer 18 questions for an anonymous questionnaire. Your participation would involve one session of approximately 10 minutes of your time. Please follow the link below. Thank you. Survey Link: https://cityunilondon.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_4UCz8cT2NDRdIxg Thank you. Pierre DION Curt Lewis