Flight Safety Information - March 15, 2022 No.052 In This Issue : Incident: Skywest CRJ7 at Redmond on Mar 11th 2022, runway excursion on landing : Incident: Delta A320 at Dallas on Mar 13th 2022, dropped panel in flight : Scientists confirm several geomagnetic storms are going to hit Earth this week : Pilots In Eastern Finland Warned Of GPS Interference Near Russian Border : Africa on the radar over air safety : Safety board makes recommendations to curb mid-air plane crashes : Jet tied to Roman Abramovich reportedly bouncing from Israel to Turkey : Boeing 737 MAX jet headed toward China completion plant - source : NASA's mega expensive moon rocket will make its public debut Thursday : ISASI 2022 - Brisbane Australia - Call for Papers Incident: Skywest CRJ7 at Redmond on Mar 11th 2022, runway excursion on landing A Skywest Canadair CRJ-700 on behalf of United, registration N791SK performing flight UA-5642 (dep Mar 10th) from San Francisco,CA to Redmond,OR (USA), landed on Redmond's runway 23, rolled to the end of the runway and attempted to turn off the runway to the right, however, left paved surface and came to stop in gravel. The FAA reported: "AIRCRAFT LANDED AND TURNED OFF THE RUNWAY INTO THE GRAVEL, POST FLIGHT INSPECTION REVEALED GRAVEL PACKED INTO THE NOSE CONE, REDMOND, OR.", the damage was unknown and the occurrence rated an incident. https://www.avherald.com/h?article=4f5f99e9&opt=0 Incident: Delta A320 at Dallas on Mar 13th 2022, dropped panel in flight A Delta Airlines Airbus A320-200, registration N347NW performing flight DL-1041 from Dallas Ft. Worth,TX to Los Angeles,CA (USA), departed Dallas Ft. Worth's runway 18L, climbed to FL320 and was enroute at FL320 for about 5 minutes when the crew decided to return to Dallas for a safe landing on runway 18R about one hour after departure. The FAA reported: "AIRCRAFT LOST A 2' X 6" INSPECTION PANEL FROM THE LEFT WING WHILE ENROUTE TO LAX AND RETURNED TO DFW, DALLAS-FORT WORTH, TX.", the damage was reported unknown and the occurrence rated an incident. A passenger told the airline: "Delta passengers are complaining about the $15 voucher for the inconvenience. Maybe rethink your strategy after terrifying hundreds of passengers in flight DL1041. It’s all good though. I’m still a Delta fan." https://www.avherald.com/h?article=4f5f97ef&opt=0 Scientists confirm several geomagnetic storms are going to hit Earth this week Apart from increasing atmospheric drag, geomagnetic storms can wreak havoc with satellites' computer circuitry and thus cause them to fail, according to space industry analyst Seradata Scientists have confirmed that several geomagnetic storms are going to hit Earth this week. Geomagnetic storms are caused by ejections of the solar corona into space, resulting in disturbances to the Earth's upper atmosphere and increased drag on objects in low orbits. "There is a chance of enhancements to the auroral oval at times during 13th and 14th March as a result of two Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and a coronal hole high-speed stream arriving at Earth," the British Met Office advised. The storm, a big cloud of charged particles that will fling from the Sun at about 4.5 million miles per hour (7.2 million km per hour), will be spawned by a pair of solar flares, scientists said. This is probably the strongest such event in nearly six years, and is likely more intense than a similar storm in late January, said Joseph Kunches, a space weather specialist at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This solar disturbance is a three-stage affair, or as Kunches said in a telephone interview from Boulder, Colorado: “We hit the trifecta.” In the first stage, two solar flares moving at nearly the speed of light reached Earth late on Tuesday. Such flares can cause radio blackouts. Then, solar radiation hit Earth’s magnetic field on Wednesday, with possible impact on air traffic, especially near the poles, satellites and any astronauts taking space walks. This phase could last for days. Finally, the plasma cloud sent by the coronal mass ejection, which is basically a big chunk of the Sun’s atmosphere, is expected to arrive at Earth early on Thursday. This phase can disrupt power grids, satellites, oil pipelines and high-accuracy GPS systems used by oil drillers, surveyors and some agricultural operations, scientists said. Also read | 80% of Starlink satellites launched by SpaceX to be destroyed by geomagnetic storm There are approximately 4,000 active satellites in this space, which extends to 1,200 miles above the surface, as well as 15,000 pieces of debris like rocket bodies and defunct probes, according to space industry analyst Seradata. GPS systems used for less-refined functions, such as the turn-by-turn navigation found in many cars, should not be affected, according to NOAA’s Doug Biesiecker. Kunches said the geomagnetic component of the storm may arrive a bit ahead of schedule because it follows a previous storm that left the Sun on Sunday and is currently buffeting the Earth’s magnetosphere. “When you’ve already had one coronal mass ejection storm, sometimes the next coronal mass ejection storm is faster to get here,” Kunches said. These storms could produce some vivid auroras, according to experts. In the Northern Hemisphere, the aurora borealis could be visible at mid-latitudes, which in the United States could include New York, Illinois and Iowa. Such stormy space weather is unusual in recent history, according to Harlan Spence, an astrophysicist at the University of New Hampshire who is principal investigator on the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) aboard NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter. “These relatively large (solar) events, which we’ve had maybe a couple of handfuls total in the course of a decade, we’ve now had two or three of them, more or less right on top of each other,” Spence said by telephone. The Sun is on the ascendant phase of its 11-year cycle of solar activity, with the peak expected next year, scientists said. “It’s a clear harbinger that the Sun is waking up,” Spence said. “We’re trying to put this in context not only ... of what has the Sun done in the past, but what is the biggest thing the Sun is capable of and what should we be planning for in terms of extreme sorts of events in the future.” https://www.wionews.com/science/scientists-confirm-several-geomagnetic-storms-are-going-to-hit-earth-this-week-462259 Pilots In Eastern Finland Warned Of GPS Interference Near Russian Border The GPS disruptions prompted at least one Lithuanian carrier to cancel flights for at least three days, according to Finnish transportation officials. Traficom said late last week it had received "numerous occurrence reports" of GPS signal interference along the border. GPS signal interference has been reported along Finland’s eastern border with Russia, according to a warning to pilots issued recently by Finnish Transport and Communications Agency Traficom. The transportation agency said it did not know what was causing the interference, which is difficult to detect on the ground or verify because of the relatively short durations of interference. “Whether unintentional or deliberate, interference that prevents people, vehicles, ships, and planes from determining accurate locations can be devastating to government and commercial activities alike.” John Serafini, CEO, HawkEye 360 Reports of the disruptions began to emerge after President Biden met in Washington, D.C., with Finland’s president to discuss “deepening defense ties” between the country and NATO amid Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, The Guardian reported. Traficom said late last week it had received “numerous occurrence reports” of GPS signal interference along the border beginning the weekend of March 5. Fintraffic Air Navigation Services Ltd. issued a Notice to Air Missions (NOTAM) informing pilots of the issue and instructing them to use traditional approach systems that do not require a GPS signal for flying the final approach. Airlines were also told to make their own decisions about whether or not to fly in the region. “An aircraft operated by the Lithuanian carrier Transaviabaltika has been unable to fly from Tallinn to Savonlinna for three days,” Traficom said in a March 10 statement. While some aircraft are able to use inertial reference system (IRS) to fix the airplane’s position as a workaround for GPS, it’s a system not common on smaller aircraft, according to Mentourpilot.com. Transaviabaltika, which operates 19-seat turboprops, was forced to cancel at least 18 flights owing to the GPS interference, it reported. Despite the disruptions, flying remains safe, a top Traficom official said. “Airlines have procedures they follow if the GPS signal is lost,” Traficom Director Jari Pöntinen said in a statement. “Aircraft can use other systems to navigate and land safely. Air traffic control supports aircraft pilots with the help of other landing systems.” News of the GPS jamming follows similar reports in Ukraine, where extensive GPS interference has been reported over the last four months, according to HawkEye 360, a radio frequency data analytics company based in Herndon, Virginia. In November 2021, the company detected extensive GPS interference along pro-Russian separatist controlled regions of Ukraine along the border with Russia, which disrupted the use of unmanned aerial vehicles in the area. Interference was again detected prior to the invasion as Russian troops amassed along Ukraine’s northern border with Belarus, north of Chernobyl, the company said. “GPS is a fundamental ‘global commons’ service that all modern economies depend upon. GPS signal interference has the potential to significantly disrupt air travel, logistics, finance, transportation, communication, and many other basic services,” John Serafini, chief executive officer of HawkEye 360, said in a statement. “Whether unintentional or deliberate, interference that prevents people, vehicles, ships, and planes from determining accurate locations can be devastating to government and commercial activities alike.” https://www.flyingmag.com/pilots-in-eastern-finland-warned-of-gps-interference-near-russian-border/ Africa on the radar over air safety . Sub-Saharan Africa registered a slip in air safety last year, despite an overall improvement in other regions. Summary IATA says to improve safety the priority for Africa would be implementation of the International Civil Aviation Organisation’s safety-related standards and recommended practices (Sarps). Just 28 African countries had achieved over 60 percent of Sarps at the end of 2021. Sub-Saharan Africa registered a slip in air safety last year, despite an overall improvement in other regions, according to data from the International Air Transport Association’s Airline Safety Performance Report for 2021. Indeed, you needed to have taken a flight daily for the equivalent of more than 10,000 years before the odds of dying in an aircraft accident turned against you during the year. The chances of dying in aircraft accident were also higher if you were flying on smaller propeller-driven aircraft. The year saw a total of 26 accidents — nine fewer than 2020 — with sub-Saharan Africa contributing four. The region also accounted for three of the seven fatal accidents in which 18 people died out of the global toll of 121 fatalities. The fatalities were below the 132 reported during 2020 and well below the five-year average of 207. Jet fatality risk The all-accident rate — a measure of accidents per a million flights — however, improved from 1.58 in 2020 to 1.01 in 2021. According to IATA, the numbers mean that on average, a person would need to take a flight every day for 10,078 years for the odds to place him in an accident in which at least one person dies. But the fatality risk rose from 0.13 a year earlier to 0.23 because of the rise in fatal turboprop aircraft accidents. There was only one fatal accident involving jet aircraft during the year, placing the jet fatality risk in 2021 at 0.04 per million sectors, compared with the five-year average of 0.06. The single non-fatal loss occurred when a Skyward Express Dash-8 was destroyed in runway collision at Bura Hache airstrip in Somalia. None of the operators of the accident aircraft was enrolled on the IATA Operational Safety Audit. “The severe reduction in flight numbers last year compared with the five-year average magnified the impact of each accident when we calculate rates. Yet in the face of numerous operational challenges in 2021, the industry improved in several key safety metrics. However, it is clear that we have much work ahead of us to bring all regions and types of operations up to global levels of safety performance,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general. Africa and the Commonwealth of Independent States (12 former Soviet republics in Eastern Europe and Central Asia) were the only ones with a rise in accident rates relative to the five-year average. Turboprop operations are of concern because despite representing only 10.99 percent of total sectors flown, accidents involving this category of aircraft represented half of all accidents, 86 percent of fatal accidents and 49 percent of fatalities in 2021. “Turboprop operations will be a focus area to identify ways to reduce the number of incidents,” said Walsh. IATA says to improve safety the priority for Africa would be implementation of the International Civil Aviation Organisation’s safety-related standards and recommended practices (Sarps). Just 28 African countries had achieved over 60 percent of Sarps at the end of 2021. “Also, a multi-stakeholder approach to specific states will be important to addressing repeated occurrences,” Walsh added. https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/business/africa-on-the-radar-over-air-safety-3747758 Safety board makes recommendations to curb mid-air plane crashes There are several CTAFs above Soldotna. The NTSB said there need to be requirements about tuning into and reporting on those frequencies. The investigation into the mid-air plane crash that killed Rep. Gary Knopp and six others in Soldotna is ongoing. But the federal board that investigates airplane safety released a set of recommendations based on that incident last month. In particular, the National Transportation Safety Board is asking the Federal Aviation Administration to require pilots to report where they are in the airspace when they’re flying within certain radio frequency zones, called CTAFs. CTAFs stand for “common traffic advisory frequencies.” They’re radio frequencies that pilots can use to communicate with each other while they’re in the air. "It’s a guide to say, 'OK, if you live in the boundaries of this particular area, you should be on this frequency if you have a radio to be listening for other aircraft so you can help avoid a mid-air collision,'" said Paul Minelga, a Sterling-based pilot who worked for years with the FAA. He said in most places in Alaska, reporting on CTAFs is highly recommended. But it’s not a requirement. The NTSB wants to change that. It said in its February report that requiring reporting could be a way to prevent mid-air collisions — of which there were 14 in Alaska between 2005 and 2020, including the accident in Soldotna. The NTSB said it was not clear what radio frequencies each plane was using at the time of that incident. Knopp’s plane, a Piper Aztec, departed from the Soldotna airport, which uses one CTAF — 122.5. The other plane, a de Havilland Beaver belonging to High Adventure Air Charters, took off from Longmere Lake. There’s technically no CTAF associated with the lake but the report says pilots who fly around Longmere typically monitor the same channel as the Soldotna airport. But that gray area is an example of how the boundaries between CTAF zones can be blurred. In the airspace above Soldotna, for example, there are five different and overlapping CTAFs. So it’s not necessarily a given that pilots flying near each other will be communicating on the same frequency, if they are at all. In its report, the NTSB said that could have played a role in the Soldotna crash. The report said “the airplanes departed from different locations, about 4 nautical miles apart, about the same time. They flew on converging flightpaths for about 2 minutes until the collision. If a CTAF area had been established for the Soldotna area and a requirement had been in place for pilots to communicate their positions when entering the CTAF, the accident may have been avoided. “ Minelga said pilots in the Soldotna area are generally good about reporting on the CTAFs and letting other pilots know they’re in the area. “But those are the local pilots," he said. "If you have someone flying from a different area, you might not necessarily know.” In addition to its suggestion about reporting, the safety board recommends the FAA designate single frequencies so pilots are on the same wavelength. Minelga said that’s a conversation pilots have had locally before. "There was a move by some of the people in the Experimental Aircraft Association chapter to actually designate an area around Soldotna bigger than the airport traffic area to have it on 122.5 and to kind of formalize the process where we are actually informally now," he said, adding that the effort stalled out. As for the reporting requirement, Minegla said he thinks it's a good idea, from a pilot’s standpoint. He has multiple radios in his own plane and an Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast, or ADS-B — a technology that allows aircrafts to send and receive three-dimensional data about where planes are in the airspace. It’s also not required by regulators. But he said a mandate might be unenforceable. For example, not all pilots have radios. And it’s unclear how often pilots should have to announce themselves on the frequency. “It’s not as easy as it sounds," he said. "It never is.” The FAA said it will review the NTSB’s recommendations. https://www.kdll.org/local-news/2022-03-14/safety-board-makes-recommendations-to-curb-mid-air-plane-crashes Jet tied to Roman Abramovich reportedly bouncing from Israel to Turkey Elusive Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich was spotted sitting in the VIP lounge of an Israeli airport Monday before a private plane linked to him jetted off to Turkey. The plane, which has been used by Abramovich, arrived in Israel on Sunday from Moscow, according to a Reuters source with knowledge of the matter and a flight-tracking Web site. A photograph later obtained by the outlet showed Abramovich sitting in Tel Aviv’s airport with a mask pulled down over his chin before the plane took off for Istanbul. It’s not clear whether the oligarch boarded the flight. Israeli restrictions imposed on private planes since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine meant the jet could not remain on the ground for more than a day, Reuters reported. Before the plane took off, a van accompanied by security guards had left Abramovich’s villa in Herzliya Pituah, an affluent suburb north of Tel Aviv, and headed to the airport, Kan public radio said. News of the plane’s brief stay in Israel comes shortly after the British Premier League banned the Chelsea soccer club owner. “Following the imposition of sanctions by the UK Government, the Premier League Board has disqualified Roman Abramovich as a Director of Chelsea Football Club,” the league said in a statement, ESPN reported. Abramovich, who has owned the team since 2003, has come under scrutiny worldwide for his ties to Russian strongman Vladimir Putin amid that country’s invasion of Ukraine. Chelsea’s assets had already been frozen under sanctions tied to the invasion, and the oligarch has officially put the club up for sale with an asking price of nearly $4 billion. Last week, the billionaire’s two superyachts fled to sea after he was included in another round of sanctions against Russia’s richest individuals. Abramovich’s personal fortune is estimated at nearly $8 billion, according to Forbes. Russian oligarchs have scrambled to move their yachts and sell or secure other assets during the international sanctions crackdown. It could not be confirmed if Abramovich was traveling on the jet for the recent trips. In Slovakia, which borders Ukraine, visiting Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid said the Jewish state “will not be a route to bypass sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and other Western countries.” Abramovich has denied having close ties to Putin. https://nypost.com/2022/03/14/jet-tied-to-roman-abramovich-reportedly-bouncing-from-israel-to-turkey/ Boeing 737 MAX jet headed toward China completion plant - source BEIJING/SYDNEY (Reuters) -A Boeing 737 MAX jet that took off from Seattle on Monday is en route to the manufacturer's completion plant in China, an industry source said, in a sign the model is closer to returning to commercial flights there after a three-year grounding. Flight tracking websites showed the plane, painted in the livery of Shanghai Airlines - a subsidiary of China Eastern Airlines - had landed in Hawaii. The source, who was not authorised to speak publicly, said it was the first fuel stop of a multi-day journey. The Zhoushan plant, used for installing interiors before delivery, opened in December 2018, a few months before a second fatal MAX crash led China to ground the model. "If this points to a delivery, it will be the first MAX delivery to China since March 2019, which is material as the country historically has represented 17% of deliveries," Jefferies analysts said in a note to clients. China, the first country to ground the MAX, is the only major global market where the aircraft is still not in commercial service, and its return is taking longer than expected at a time when domestic demand is declining as COVID-19 cases rise. China's aviation regulator in early December provided airlines with a list of fixes required before its return to commercial flying, which it predicted would occur by the beginning of this year. So far, however, there have been only test flights, in a move that has also delayed deliveries of more than 100 MAX jets already built for Chinese customers that are located at Boeing sites in the United States. Boeing Chief Executive David Calhoun said on Jan. 26 that his company was getting ready to deliver those planes as early as the first quarter, once the fleet already in China returned to service. Boeing declined to comment on the MAX flight to Zhoushan. The planemaker said in a statement that it continued to work with regulators and customers on the MAX return to service worldwide. Chinese airlines are in no rush to bring back the MAX because of falling domestic demand amid the biggest COVID-19 outbreaks in two years, three people familiar with the matter told Reuters on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to speak publicly. "There is less urgency to add capacity now," one of the people said. China Southern Airlines is among the Chinese airlines closest to returning the plane to commercial service and might be the first to do so, the person said. China Southern did not respond immediately to a request for comment. https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/boeing-737-max-jet-headed-001632424.html NASA's mega expensive moon rocket will make its public debut Thursday Twelve years after it was first announced, NASA’s massive Space Launch System will finally make its public debut. The super heavy-lift rocket and Orion spacecraft will begin the rollout to the launch pad at Florida’s Kennedy Space Center on Thursday, a much-anticipated development for a launch system that’s been beset by delays and a mounting price tag. Following the rollout Thursday, which is expected to take 11 hours, NASA will conduct a slew of tests to determine launch readiness, like validating the software systems and servicing the boosters. After that, NASA will commence a “wet dress rehearsal,” a series of additional prelaunch tests, during which the system will be loaded with its propellant tanks. Artemis launch director Charlie Blackwell-Thompson told reporters during a media call Monday that the wet dress could take place on April 3, should the rollout go as expected. It’s been a long time coming. Congress directed NASA to develop SLS to replace the Space Shuttle, the agency’s original spaceflight workhorse, back in 2010. SLS is envisioned as a vehicle to return humans to the moon as part of NASA’s Artemis program, and possibly even further into the solar system. But ever since, the project has faced repeated setbacks and technical issues. A year ago, NASA’s Inspector General’s office issued a damning report on the costs and contracts associated with the SLS program, finding that “rising costs and delays” have pushed the overall budget for the project far beyond the original scope. Arguably, the biggest winners out of this snafu have been the aerospace primes -- notably Boeing, which is heading SLS development, Northrop Grumman and Aerojet, whose contracts made up 71% of the total funding spent in 2019 on all SLS contracts, according to the Inspector General. NASA’s SLS Moon rocket is 2 years behind and billions over budget, internal report finds All of this has added up to an extremely costly project. At the beginning of March, a NASA auditor reported that the operational expenses for the first four Artemis missions will total $4.1 billion -- each. The cost of constructing a single SLS accounts for around half of that, or $2.2 billion. NASA’s associate administrator for exploration systems development, Tom Whitmeyer, seemed to tacitly comment on the price tag, telling reporters that the project is a “national investment.” “From my perspective, it's a strong national investment [and] international engagement in our economy,” he said. SLS’s high price tag is partly due to the fact that neither stage of SLS is reusable, so each mission will need its own rocket. As opposed to SLS, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk estimated last month that his company’s super-heavy, fully reusable rocket, Starship, would cost less than $10 million per launch within the next few years. SpaceX is developing a version of the rocket for NASA as part of the Artemis program, after winning a $2.9 billion contract for the task last year. https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/nasas-mega-expensive-moon-rocket-224014697.html ISASI 2022 Brisbane Australia Current Challenges for Aviation Safety Call for Papers ISASI 2022 will b e a fully interactive "hybrid” conference for delegates to meet either face to face at the Pullman Hotel King George Square Brisbane Australia or to register and participate “ on line August 30 to September 1 , 2022 The committee welcome s the offer of presentations that will address the challenges for contemporary aviation safety in the new normal including: · Recent accident/incident investigations. · Novel and new investigations techniques. · Data investigation and analysis. · Future technological developments for aviation safety. · Investigator training and contemporary selection criteria. · Wreckage recovery and analysis. · Developments in analysis and understanding of human performance with specific reference to pandemics. Abstracts should include the author’s current short CV and be sent to ISASI2022@isasi.org or if you have any questions pmayes@isasi.org April 20th Closing date for receipt of abstracts May 30th Presenters informed of successful selection and instructions for final papers issued July 20th Completed paper and power point presentation required Curt Lewis