Flight Safety Information - November 8, 2022 No. 216 In This Issue : Incident: Canada Rouge A319 at Fort Lauderdale on Nov 3rd 2022, bird strike on departure : Accident: Southwest B737 at Milwaukee on Nov 4th 2022, hard landing : Pilots Experience Worst-Case Scenarios in Embry-Riddle’s New Spatial Disorientation Lab : European Transport Union demands new cabin air safety standards : French investigators to probe Precision Air plane crash : Florida traveler stuffs gun into raw chicken, tries to bring on plane : Bombardier’s Engaging 26th Annual Safety Standdown Conference Returns to Wichita to Explore How the Aviation Industry is “Moving Safety Forward” : How Latin America Is the Future of the Airline Industry : Antonov An-225: It Will Cost At Least €500 Million To Rebuild The World’s Largest Airplane : Republic Airways Reduces Embraer E175 Aircraft Order : ISASI’s PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGIONAL CHAPTER PRESENTS A FALL KICK-OFF EVENT! - NOVEMBER 1. : Call for Papers – ISASI 2023 : Research Study: Professional Pilot Occupational Risk(s) Survey Incident: Canada Rouge A319 at Fort Lauderdale on Nov 3rd 2022, bird strike on departure An Air Canada Rouge Airbus A319-100, registration C-GBHR performing flight AC-1611 from Fort Lauderdale,FL (USA) to Montreal,QC (Canada), was accelerating for takeoff from Lauderdale's runway 10L when the crew just before V1 observed a small bird and a large bird followed by loud noise and smell. Due to the speed the crew continued takeoff, the crew declared PAN PAN and decided to divert to Miami,FL (USA), where the aircraft landed safely on runway 09 about 45 minutes after departure. The crew suspected a blown tyre, emergency services however found no blown tyre. The Canadian TSB reported maintenance found evidence of a bird strike into the right hand engine (CFM56) without core ingestion and also found evidence of impact on the right hand main gear. The aircraft returned to service about 24 hours after landing in Miami. https://avherald.com/h?article=500b6691&opt=0 Accident: Southwest B737 at Milwaukee on Nov 4th 2022, hard landing A Southwest Airlines Boeing 737-700, registration N227WN performing flight WN-1730 from Nashville,TN to Milwaukee,WI (USA), landed on Milwaukee's runway 25L but touched down hard. The aircraft rolled out without further incident. Two flight attendants received minor injuries. The aircraft remained on the ground for about 4 hours, then continued with the next sector of flight WN-1730 to Baltimore,MD (USA). The FAA reported: "AIRCRAFT LANDED HARD, MILWAUKEE, WI.", two cabin crew received minor injuries, the damage to the aircraft was unknown. https://avherald.com/h?article=500b56fb&opt=0 Pilots Experience Worst-Case Scenarios in Embry-Riddle’s New Spatial Disorientation Lab It almost looks like she is strapped into an amusement park ride, but the new simulator is not meant for entertainment. Rather, it is a life-saving training tool allowing pilotsto realistically feel and react to simulations of dangerous flight conditions that can create disorienting illusions for pilots — illusions that can imitate, among other things, the feeling of turning, climbing or descending when their aircraft is actually flying perfectly straight or, worse, doing the opposite of what the pilot feels behind the controls. Spatial disorientation illusions like these are some of the most common factors cited as contributing to fatal aircraft accidents, including the one that claimed the lives of Kobe Bryant and his daughter Gianna in 2020. That crash occurred in a helicopter, but the disorientation effects experienced by the pilot are the same as those suffered in airplanes. “We all learn about these illusions; however, it is hard to imagine how it feels and the extent it has on your perception,” said Filipkova. “It is chilling to imagine that you can unknowingly experience spatial disorientation in flight. For this reason, everyone should take advantage of the simulator, so they have an idea of what to expect and can correctly identify the illusion were they ever to encounter one.” Dr. Bob Thomas, an assistant professor of Aeronautical Science who heads up the College of Aviation’s Spatial Disorientation Lab, began student training and research using the new simulator in October. The device, which can rotate full 360-degree revolutions as well as 30 degrees of pitch and bank, simulates vestibular system illusions related to the inner ear, which can cause dizziness, disorientation, motion sickness and illusions like the “Graveyard Spiral,” a dangerous spiral dive entered into accidentally by a pilot. It also includes visual illusions, like false horizons and runway width illusions. “We give students experiences with all these illusions, so they know how to respond if they experience them in flight,” said Thomas. Thomas modified a Force Dynamics 401cr Motion Simulator, and the university’s Extended Reality (XR) Lab developed the Virtual Reality Aviation Illusion Trainer (VRAIT), which includes a dozen illusion scenarios that students experience through the VR headset. The scenario involves students flying in a Cessna and moving on a recorded path through each illusion, which lasts about five minutes. “They have no controls in the simulator — they are just along for the ride,” Thomas said. “We are simulating putting them in this situation, and they have the ability to look all around the aircraft in the virtual environment.” One of the first students to volunteer to test the device was flight student Derek Matusch, who is currently working on both his commercial multi-engine rating and flight instructor certification. He admitted he was nervous but said it was a valuable experience. “I absolutely recommend every flight student try it,” he said. “The lab allows students to experience potentially dangerous scenarios in a safe and controlled atmosphere. It could help all pilots be aware of the dangers that can be encountered in flight.” People may panic and overreact to these illusions when they are flying in real life, said Thomas, so introducing them to what each scenario feels like in a controlled laboratory space is invaluable training. Laura Wade, a pilot and graduate student assistant in the Spatial Disorientation Lab, agreed, adding that she found the simulator to be very realistic. “It is disorienting — you have to rely on your training [and the controls], not your perception,” she said. “This simulator aims to create a baseline knowledge of the illusions on the ground, so if pilots experience it in the air, they know how to recognize and respond to it.” https://news.erau.edu/headlines/pilots-experience-worst-case-scenarios-in-embry-riddles-new-spatial-disorientation-lab European Transport Union demands new cabin air safety standards European Transport Union demands new cabin air safety standards Cabin crew workers and passengers alike expect airlines to adhere to the highest cabin air safety standards. Aviation workers and safety experts are calling on airlines, manufacturers, and the EU Aviation Safety Agency to immediately implement new cabin air quality standards designed to protect staff and passengers from chemical fumes. After more than seven years of work on the issue, the European Committee on Standardization (CEN) has published a technical report including recommendations on how to prevent exposure to fumes through improvements in the design, maintenance, and operation of aircraft. These measures are crucial to minimizing the impact of “fume events” when the air ventilation supply on commercial aircraft gets contaminated with noticeable amounts of heated engine oil and hydraulic fluid fumes. The recommendations on the “Cabin air quality on civil aircraft – Chemical compounds” technical report call for: The installation and operation of suitable filtration to remove fumes from the ventilation supply air, pending available technology. Filters would either prevent or mitigate onboard exposure to fumes and reduce the need for cancelled/diverted flights and maintenance action. The installation and operation of chemical sensors to notify maintenance workers and pilots of the type and location of contamination in the air supply systems, pending available technology. Sensors would abbreviate onboard exposure to fumes and facilitate a prompt and effective maintenance response. The implementation of “best practices” in aircraft maintenance, such as training maintenance staff to prevent inadvertent overservicing of the engines with oil and hydraulic fluid. The establishment of an incident reporting system for airlines to track reported health and safety impacts more effectively, monitor maintenance schedules, and assess trends over time; The implementation of simple education and training programs to enable airline workers to recognise, respond, and react to fume events onboard. Although accident investigation branches across the EU have repeatedly recognized the flight safety implications of fume events, the EU Aviation Safety Agency has not issued regulations on cabin air quality. That makes the work of the CEN committee, where trade unions have a say, together with passenger groups, manufacturers, and airlines, more important. Following the report’s publication, the European Trade Union Confederation, the European Transport Workers’ Federation, the Global Cabin Air Quality Executive, and the European Cabin Crew Association call for the immediate implementation of the first European recommendations on cabin air quality on civil aircraft. ETUC Confederal Secretary, Isabelle Schömann said: “Cabin crew workers and passengers alike expect airlines to adhere to the highest safety standards, but we know that is currently not the case when it comes to chemical fumes. “Unions, passenger groups, and industry issued common sense solutions to protect cabin crew and passenger’s health. “Airlines now have the responsibility to implement these recommendations as part of their duty of care to their crew and passengers.” European Transport Federation Head of Aviation Eoin Coates said: “Oil fumes contaminate the air supply during what are otherwise regular commercial flights every day. The fumes can seriously impair crewmembers which compromises flight safety and security. “This report finally gives EASA, manufacturers, MRO companies, and airlines a road map of design and maintenance measures to protect airline workers and passengers from breathing toxic oil fumes onboard.” The Global Cabin Air Quality Executive Spokesperson, Captain Tristan Loraine, said: “This is a major step forward and a really positive initiative for the whole industry to improve flight safety and protect the crew and public health.” European Cabin Crew Association president Annette Groeneveld said: “Fume events put the health and safety of all people on board of an aircraft at risk. What we need now is a fast, comprehensive and profound implementation of the proposed measures to ensure a safe and healthy environment for our crews and the passengers.” https://eturbonews.com/european-transport-union-demands-new-cabin-air-safety-standards/ French investigators to probe Precision Air plane crash French air accident investigators will be deployed to the scene of Sunday’s tragic plane crash in Bukoba, Tanzania to assist in the investigation of Precision Air plane crash that killed at least 19 people. A spokesperson for France’s Bureau of Enquiry and Analysis for Civil Aviation Safety (BEA) air accident investigation agency said on Monday that it was sending a team to Tanzania along with technical advisers from Franco-Italian plane maker ATR. The plane, which crashed in Lake Victoria, was an ATR 42-500 turboprop made by the company. Flight PW494, operated by Precision Air, plunged into the lake during storms and heavy rain, on a second attempt to make the ill-fated landing as it arrived from Dar es Salaam. Tanzanian Prime Minister Kassim Majaliwa said investigators had launched a probe into what had happened and experts say that the investigations could take months. Under international rules, the locally-led investigation would usually include the participation of authorities in France, where the plane was designed, and Canada, where its Pratt & Whitney engines were developed. https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/france-joins-precision-air-plane-crash-probe-4012668 Florida traveler stuffs gun into raw chicken, tries to bring on plane Gun detected inside raw chicken at Florida airport The chickens came home to roost for one traveler who hatched the “greasy” idea of packing a firearm inside a raw hen for their flight out of Florida. On Monday afternoon, the Transportation Security Administration posted a picture of a gun detected inside a raw hen at Florida’s Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport security baggage screening room. The picture shows the gun wrapped and placed inside the chicken — where stuffing would normally sit. TSA officials said a woman planning to travel to Haiti tried to smuggle the gun inside the dead chicken. She did not make her flight and was referred to U.S. Customs and Border Protection as she was planning to fly out of the country. A TSA spokesperson took the opportunity to reach into their bag of Thanksgiving-themed puns as they issued a warning to other travelers looking to safely travel with secure firearms. “The plot chickens as we barrel our way closer to Thanksgiving. For us, it’s a time to be thankful that our officers are always working around the cluck to keep you safe,” the spokesperson wrote. “We hate to beak it to you here, but stuffing a firearm in your holiday bird for travel is just a baste of time. This idea wasn’t even half-baked; it was raw, greasy, and obviously unsupervised.” Those wishing to travel and bring their guns can do so in checked baggage. The guns, however, must be unloaded, packed separately from ammunition in a locked hardback case and declared at the airline check-in counter, TSA officials said. Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport ranks typically in the top 10 or 11 in domestic airports for passengers violating federal law by bringing guns to the TSA checkpoints. “As we enter the busiest holiday travel period, remember if you are going to travel with your gun it must be in your checked bag, but be sure you know what the gun laws are on each side of your trip or you may be heading to jail instead of to your family gathering,” TSA Spokesperson Sari Koshetz wrote in a statement. “Guns may not be legal to transport even in checked baggage in some jurisdictions.” There have been 32 firearm detections in all New England security checkpoints this year, including 23 in Boston, which is the largest number of firearms detected in a single year. The previous record of firearms detected at security checkpoints in Boston was in 2018 when security detected 20 guns. Despite Logan Airport’s record number, the Boston airport remains ranked 50th in checkpoint firearm detections at U.S. federalized airports. TSA reminded passengers of the penalties they can face for having guns at security checkpoints. A fine for a first offense is typically $4,100 but can go as high as $13,669, depending on the incident. “Feather you like it or not, there are rules for traveling with guns and ammunition. So, don’t wing it,” a TSA spokesperson wrote. https://www.masslive.com/police-fire/2022/11/florida-traveler-stuffs-gun-into-raw-chicken-tries-to-bring-on-plane.html Bombardier’s Engaging 26th Annual Safety Standdown Conference Returns to Wichita to Explore How the Aviation Industry is “Moving Safety Forward” Bombardier Inc. Prominent safety event promotes lifelong learning to highlight the latest safety knowledge available throughout the industry Close to 400 aviation professionals are expected to attend the event with more than 1,000 participants from some 25 countries attending via webcast In-person presentations will focus on specific elements of Safety Management Systems (SMS), aviation stress and self management, crafting a culture of compliance and more MONTRÉAL, Nov. 07, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Bombardier’s industry-leading Safety Standdown, one of the most comprehensive safety conferences in the aviation industry, will be back in full force November 8-10 in Wichita, KS, home to the Bombardier Defense as well as the company’s U.S. headquarters. The 26th edition of the popular three-day conference will feature unique learning opportunities, dynamic workshops and cutting-edge presentations by leading experts and thought leaders. Online registration for the conference webcast is currently underway, and sessions are open to all aviation professionals regardless of the aircraft type they operate. This year’s theme, “Moving Safety Forward,” focuses on leadership in instilling a culture of safety and asks the question: Are aviation professionals doing enough to move the safety needle forward? “Bombardier’s Safety Standdown is known for bringing industry experts and thought leaders together for three days to tackle the latest topics and challenges in aviation safety. These leaders not only provide practical skills training but also inspire participants to create a climate where safety is the overriding driver behind every decision,” said Chris Milligan, Vice President, Pre-Owned Aircraft Services and Flight Operations, Bombardier. “We expect that the knowledge and relationships participants develop at this year’s seminar will help disseminate higher standards of safety and professionalism throughout the industry and around the world.” Offered free of charge as part of Bombardier’s contribution to the industry, the marquis event has grown in popularity, scope and influence since it was first conceived by a group of Learjet demonstration pilots who were determined to make the Bombardier flight demonstration team in Wichita the safest in the industry. This year, close to 400 aviation professionals are expected to attend some of the workshops and sessions, with more than 1,000 participants from some 25 countries routinely attending via webcast. Attendees span the industry spectrum from flight crews and maintenance technicians to flight dispatchers and schedulers and represent a wide range of corporate, commercial and military organizations. Some of the popular speakers at this year’s event include conference favourite, Tony Kern, founding partner and CEO of Convergent Performance; Amy Grubb Ph. D, of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI); Ryan Retelle from the Advanced Aircrew Academy and many more. In an effort to make Safety Standdown’s key content more widely available, Bombardier established an online global human factors knowledge centre in 2010. The Safety Standdown website offers a trove of online resources, including the Safety Talks series, that have been used successfully by aviation professionals in a multitude of settings, from universities to flight schools to small department meetings across the globe. About Safety Standdown Originally conceived in 1996 as a human factors safety-training event for the Learjet flight demonstration team, the conference quickly garnered a reputation for excellence beyond Bombardier’s customer base. In 1999, in response to growing interest within the industry, Bombardier opened the seminar to all pilots. In 2010, Safety Standdown expanded beyond the seminars into a year-round global human factors program offering online resources. Since 1996, more than 10,000 corporate, commercial and military aviation professionals have attended Safety Standdown seminars worldwide, live and through the webcast, including in Brazil, Canada, China, Mexico, Switzerland and the USA. Admission to Safety Standdown has, throughout the years, remained free to all aviation professionals as part of Bombardier’s ongoing contribution to the betterment of the industry. About Bombardier Bombardier is a global leader in aviation, focused on designing, manufacturing, and servicing the world's most exceptional business jets. Bombardier’s Challenger and Global aircraft families are renowned for their cutting-edge innovation, cabin design, performance, and reliability. Bombardier has a worldwide fleet of approximately 5,000 aircraft in service with a wide variety of multinational corporations, charter and fractional ownership providers, governments, and private individuals. Bombardier aircraft are also trusted around the world in special-mission roles. Headquartered in Montréal, Québec, Bombardier operates aerostructure, assembly and completion facilities in Canada, the United States and Mexico. The company’s robust customer support network includes facilities in strategic locations in the United States and Canada, as well as in the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Switzerland, Italy, Austria, the UAE, Singapore, China, and Australia. For corporate news and information, including Bombardier’s Environmental, Social and Governance report, visit bombardier.com. Learn more about Bombardier’s industry-leading products and customer service network at businessaircraft.bombardier.com. Follow us on Twitter @Bombardier. Bombardier and Learjet are registered trademarks of Bombardier Inc. or its subsidiaries. For information Matthew Nicholls Bombardier +1 514-243-8214 Matthew.Nicholls@aero.bombardier.com https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bombardier-engaging-26th-annual-safety-220000963.html How Latin America Is the Future of the Airline Industry No part of the world is seeing as many big changes to the airline business as Latin America. The final shape is still opaque, but one thing is clear for the region's aviation industry: All eyes are watching closely for how this transformation unfolds. Twelve minutes. That’s all the time it took for the board of directors of Avianca, the second largest airline in Latin America, to set the fate of the carrier and begin a series of sweeping changes to the airline industry in the region. The date was May 10, 2020. It was a partly cloudy spring Wednesday in Bogotá, where Avianca is headquartered. The weather, however, was likely of little consequence to the board that met via teleconference to decide the airline’s fate at 8:03 a.m. local time. Dialing, or Zooming possibly, in were its 10 directors, including then chief financial officer and now CEO Adrian Neuhauser. In front of them was a momentous decision: Whether or not to take Avianca into bankruptcy given, as minutes from the meeting show, the airline’s cash flows were “severely impacted by the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.” If they voted yes, it would be the largest airline bankruptcy to that point in the crisis. All of the facts in front of the board pointed to a yes vote. Global air travel was a month off its pandemic nadir in April 2020. Airspace in Colombia, Avianca’s largest market, had been closed since March 20, and the airline’s flights suspended since March 25. And then there was the “uncertainty caused by the limited visibility that the industry [had] with respect to the demand recovery.” Just over a month earlier, then director general of industry trade group the International Air Transport Association (IATA), Alexandre de Juniac, had warned that, without government aid to get through the liquidity crisis facing airlines, the industry would “run out of cash and over half the [airlines] die.” And the Colombian government, as well as every other government in Latin America, had to that May morning declined to provide any aid to the region’s airlines. By 8:15 a.m. it was done: The board voted to take Avianca into Chapter 11 and the meeting was adjourned. By 1 p.m. that day, the airline had filed the necessary documents with the court in New York and it was officially bankrupt. “When we did it, we saw no other viable path,” Neuhauser said with the benefit of hindsight at the annual meeting of the region’s aviation trade group, ALTA, in Buenos Aires this October. “In retrospect, it allowed us to survive. It gave us time to breathe. It gave us time to reflect on who we are and why we do what we do.” Avianca was the first airline domino to fall in Latin America during the pandemic. The region’s largest carrier, Latam Airlines Group, would follow it into Chapter 11 on May 26, and Aeromexico on June 30, confirming de Juniac’s warning that airlines would collapse. But bankruptcy was not the death of these carriers, far from it. Latin America is emerging as the most dynamic region in the global airline industry, a market through history that has been subject to the varying political and economic instabilities from country to country. Today billions of dollars in fresh investment, including from a slew of new investors, is pouring in. Consolidation is rife. All of this change is creating very real, and new, opportunities for budget airlines and startups alike. The endgame from all this disruption is still unclear, of course, but make no mistake: Latin America is captivating the attention of aviation around the world. (For more on Latin America’s aviation industry, be sure to attend Skift Aviation Forum on November 16 where a session is entitled “What Comes Next for Latin America?”) Breaking Point Airlines in Latin America were struggling before the pandemic. The industry had racked up a combined $2.2 billion in losses from 2015 through 2019, according to data from IATA. When revenues dried up and many airlines saw “negative bookings” — when there are more cancellations than new reservations — early in the pandemic, the resulting liquidity crisis proved the breaking point for many carriers. In their initial bankruptcy filings, Aeromexico, Avianca, and Latam all cited a liquidity crunch with, as Avianca put it, “no end in sight.” Each also mentioned the lack of government support as a contributing factor, though none highlighted it as a reason for their respective bankruptcies. “Airlines had to bear the brunt,” Peter Cerda, the regional vice president of the Americas at IATA, said of the lack of state support for the industry in the region. This was not necessarily a surprise. Air travel in many Latin American countries has long been viewed — incorrectly — as the domain of the rich and, as such, governments have hesitated to appear as subsidizing the airline industry. Of course exceptions exist, most notably state-owned Aerolineas Argentinas; all of the major Latin American airlines, including the three that went through bankruptcy, were privatized decades ago. These views, as far as airline executives are concerned, contribute to government policies — from heavy taxation to failure to invest in airport facilities — that the industry argues limits its ability to expand. At the same time, each bankrupt legacy airline faced increasing pressure from budget competition. Viva Aerobus and Volaris were eating into Aeromexico’s home market; Viva Air was doing the same to Avianca in Colombia; and a combination of JetSmart and Sky Airline to Latam in Argentina, Chile, and Peru. And, conflating the issues facing Latin American airlines, was the industry’s fragmentation. Aside from market leader Latam that was formed by the merger of Lan Airlines and Tam Airlines in 2012, no one carrier had more than a 13 percent share of passenger capacity — Gol in Brazil — and most had shares smaller than 8 percent in 2019, according to Diio by Cirium schedules. Larger airlines with more scale are typically healthier and, important to travelers, grow faster than their peers in more fragmented markets. This has proven true in the U.S. and Europe where consolidation has created financially stronger airlines and airline groups, as well as sustained growth. Bankruptcy, as Neuhauser put it in October, was an opportunity for Latin America’s three largest legacy airlines to take a step back, restructure, and refocus on who they are. And, in Avianca’s case, that meant beating discount competitors at their own game. “Staying independent in aviation in the 2020s is not an option. It was hard pre-pandemic. It’s not an option now.” If You Can’t Beat Them, Join Them Avianca CEO Neuhauser, in several conversations over the past year, has repeatedly highlighted the changes in the Colombian market. Growth, he has said, was in expanding the pool of flyers — converting bus riders to planes, for example — rather than doubling down on the airline’s traditional corporate and upper middle class segments. And, to tap this market, Avianca had to cut costs, become more flexible, and adopt an a la carte pricing structure with cheaper fares and lots of fees. In other words, Avianca had to become a budget airline. “We exist to serve the region we fly in, and that’s everybody that needs to fly there. Not just the customer base that we originally had,” Neuhauser said in October. “That’s what made us really change our business model, because it means that to some extent we have to migrate our customer base to be broader.” Bankruptcy brought big changes to Avianca. The airline’s CEO when it filed in 2020, Anko Van der Werff, who had been brought in only a year earlier to lead its turn around, jumped ship for SAS in April 2021. Neuhauser, a former investment banker, was promoted from finance chief to the top job. Under Neuhauser, Avianca unveiled a restructuring plan to become more like its budget competitors while cutting costs by more than 40 percent, and debt “significantly.” Its partnership with United Airlines was preserved, and the U.S. carrier increased its investment in the new Avianca to roughly 16 percent. But Chapter 11 proved to only be a starting point for Avianca. The airline unveiled plans to acquire its main budget competitor, Viva Air, in April. And, less than a month later, a merger with Gol to form the new Abra Group, or a South American equivalent of Europe’s International Airlines Group (IAG). The Abra deal, if approved by regulators, would be the biggest change in Latin American aviation since the since the Lan-Tam merger a decade ago. Abra would also include Viva Air, and maybe Sky in Chile and Peru. Avianca and Viva Air anticipate Colombian approval of their merger by year-end, and Avianca holds a convertible bond from Sky that it could convert to a 42 percent equity stake in the airline. “Latin America as a whole needs to be more rational in dealing with the recovery,” Gol CEO Celso Ferrer said at the forum. “If [airlines] don’t have scale, if they don’t have, let’s say, market strength and presence, it will be really tough for them.” Ferrer, like Neuhauser, also stepped into the top job at Gol during the pandemic. Before taking over from Paulo Kakinoff on July 1, Ferrer was the airline’s chief operating officer. However, unlike at Avianca, the transition at Gol was expected, and Ferrer has so-far continued with the strategy laid out under Kakinoff. If one looks at the U.S. market, airline profits grew and capacity growth accelerated after eight airlines merged to become the Big Four — American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines, and United — between 2008 through 2013. Today, each of those four airlines has scale with more than a 17 percent share of the U.S. domestic capacity, Diio data show. The next tier of U.S. airlines, Alaska Airlines and JetBlue Airways, are significantly smaller with 7 percent and 6 percent shares, respectively. Abra’s four member airlines will operate a combined 22 percent of airline passenger capacity in Latin America during the fourth quarter, according to Diio. Latam will fly roughly 23 percent of capacity. And Gol is not a stranger to consolidation. The airline opened the current round of Latin American airline consolidation buying Brazilian regional carrier Map Transportes Aéreos for nearly $6 million in 2021. It netted lucrative slots at São Paulo’s close-in Congonhas airport from the deal. Asked why the pandemic was the spark for Abra, and the other consolidation talk in the region, Ferrer said: “It was the need to have better market presence — a bigger market presence — better yields, and more stability on the revenue side.” “Staying independent in aviation in the 2020s is not an option,” Viva Air CEO Felix Antelo said at the forum. “It was hard pre-pandemic. It’s not an option now.” Antelo cited the “financial muscle” that will come from, first, the merger with Avianca that is pending in Colombia. The two airlines plan to maintain their own brands but will coordinate flights and other commercial activities. And, second, the larger deal to create Abra where Viva Air will be the “low-cost carrier branch” of the group, as Antelo put it. Spurned Suitor “Consolidation that brings value to your shareholders, and to everybody, is true domestic consolidation,” Azul CEO John Rodgerson said at the forum. He’s very much a proponent of these combinations citing, for example, the airline mergers in the U.S. Where Rodgerson does not see value are in cross-border deals, like the creation of Abra. “When you do cross border consolidation — it’s hard for me to see, it’s not intuitive to see the synergies,” he said. But Rodgerson is a spurned suitor. Azul failed in a hostile takeover attempt of Latam last year; a deal that could have created a Latin American airline with a nearly 32 percent share of capacity in the region. And, aside from Latam, the only other domestic Brazil merger option for Azul would be Gol, which is already spoken for with Abra. Given his lack of good options, it’s not surprising that Rodgerson is a bit glum on the idea of cross-border airline integration. European airlines have shown that cross-border mergers can work. Air France-KLM, IAG, and the Lufthansa Group are all stronger than they were as independent airlines before consolidating over the past 20 years. Yes, the mergers have not answered all of their problems — just look at the Lufthansa Group’s lackluster margins from 2015 to 2019 dispute having acquired Austrian Airlines, Brussels Airlines, Eurowings, and Swiss Air. But all would agree: The three big groups, and their constituent airlines, are stronger today than they were before consolidation. Latam, for its part, has doubled down on its status as the region’s largest airline. The carrier emerged from Chapter 11 in the U.S. on November 3 having slashed its debt by roughly 35 percent. Delta and Qatar Airways, which owned 20 percent and 10 percent, respectively, of the airline before its bankruptcy, both provided millions of dollars in new capital and kept strategic investments in Latam. And new investors, including State Street and hedge fund Sculptor Capital Management, also invested in the restructured airline. Roberto Alvo, CEO of Latam, said at the forum that he expects the airline’s — as well as the industry’s — capacity to fully recover to pre-pandemic levels by next year. Latam has moved quickly to resume and add flights in Latin America’s domestic markets, including taking — for now — Gol’s pre-pandemic title as the largest in Brazil. And Latam is pursuing its own form of consolidation: A joint venture with Delta. The partnership will allow the two airlines to coordinate flights and other commercial activities between the U.S. and South America. This, they say, will allow them to expand, including adding at least nine new routes in the market. The U.S. signed off on the pact in September, however, neither airline has said when they will launch the partnership. Gol has a similar pact with American. The U.S. airline owns just over 5 percent of the Brazilian carrier. But, for now, neither airline plans to form a joint venture covering flights between the U.S. and Brazil as Delta and Latam have. Azul has smaller partnerships with JetBlue and United. Rodgerson said the airline was not looking at a joint venture with United, which owns a small stake in Azul, currently. Budget Winners “The big winners [are] the LCCs in the region,” Viva Air’s Antelo said, referring to low-cost carriers, another name for budget airlines. Discounters expanded its share of passenger capacity in Latin America dramatically during the crisis. Budget carriers are scheduled to operate roughly 28 percent of capacity in the fourth quarter, a nearly 11 points increase from the same period in 2019, according to Diio. No where is that growth more pronounced than in Argentina where discounters FlyBondi and JetSmart expanded their combined share of domestic capacity by 20 points to 32 percent in the fourth quarter. The two Argentinian discounters have expanded into the hole left by Latam. The legacy airline closed its local operation as part of its bankruptcy in 2020. Aerolineas’ share of domestic Argentina capacity is roughly flat in the fourth quarter compared to 2019, Diio data show. But that growth is indicative of the direction of the market in Latin America towards a larger budget airline presence. “The pandemic was good for JetSmart,” the airline’s CEO Estuardo Oritz said at the forum. “[It was] a moment for us to get the airline to a much better level of performance.” That better performance included tighter cost control, adding new ticket distribution channels, and the previously mentioned launch of JetSmart in Peru, Ortiz said. In addition, JetSmart signed a new strategic partnership with American that will include a small investment by the U.S. carrier. Ortiz said approval of the deal is taking longer than initially planned but the premise remains the same: Continue to grow but as part of American’s AAdvantage loyalty program. JetSmart, for now, is focused on expanding its depth in its existing markets, particularly Argentina and Peru, Ortiz said. He does not see the airline adding new domestic operations in other Latin American countries in the near future. Mexico was another market where discount carriers posted large share gains during the crisis. Viva Aerobus and Volaris expanded their combined share of domestic capacity by nearly 18 points to 77 percent in the fourth quarter compared with 2019, according to Diio. The expansion of Viva Aerobus and Volaris was primarily driven by two things: First, Aeromexico’s bankruptcy that limited its ability to grow until it exited Chapter 11 in March. And, second, the collapse of mid-tier airline Interjet at the end of 2020. Before it left the market, Interjet operated nearly 17 percent of domestic Mexico capacity, Diio shows. Aeromexico, as part of its restructuring, doubled down on its traditional market, that is corporate and premium travelers particularly in Mexico City, as well as increasing connecting opportunities via its Mexico City hub. A partnership with Delta, which saw its investment in the airline cut to 20 percent from 51 percent as part of the restructuring, was retained. And Aeromexico raised nearly $1.5 billion in new equity and debt, including from private equity firm Apollo Global Management, which took a 22.4 percent stake in the carrier. “We were headed down that direction already,” IATA’s Cerda said of budget airlines’ pandemic growth. These airlines focused on expanding the number of Latin Americans who fly, rather than taking passengers from the region’s legacy carriers. The pandemic accelerated this shift, he added. But even in a growing market, not every airline will be successful no matter how low their fares. In Brazil, startup discounter Itapemirim Transportes Aéreos survived for only six months in 2021. Discounter Volaris expanded its share of the Mexican market significantly while Aeromexico restructured in bankruptcy during the pandemic. (Rod ajl/Wikimedia) Leading The Industry What Latin American aviation looks like when the dust settles from the pandemic is still unknown. But an educated guess would be one that looks a bit more like Europe; one with a few large legacy airline groups — think Abra and Latam — complemented by a few large discount carriers. In other words: Consolidation. This is what de Juniac, and other leaders at IATA including Cerda, suggested in 2020 would happen to the global industry as it emerged from the pandemic. That financially weakened airlines would look at combining as a way to financially recover, and better prepare for the next crisis whenever it came. Latin American airlines just got there first. “One of the long lasting impacts of the pandemic in the region will be accelerating — perhaps [by] two, three, to five years — the consolidation of the industry,” Viva Air’s Antelo said. “Absent a pandemic, that would have taken longer.” Other regions are beginning to follow Latin America’s lead. In Europe, the privatization of ITA Airways remains anyone’s guess with the Lufthansa Group back in the running with Air France-KLM. TAP Air Portugal has caught the attention of both Air France-KLM and IAG. And IAG also wants Air Europa, and maybe EasyJet. Kenya Airways and South African Airways may partner to form a larger African group. And in Asia, Korean Air’s takeover of Asiana is slowly winding through the approvals process. But airline consolidation comes with its tradeoffs. In the U.S., for example, budget airlines — also a growing market segment there — repeatedly talk of issues expanding into sought after airports, from New York to Los Angeles and Chicago, where large incumbents control the majority of available slots (the right for a flight to either land or takeoff), gates, or both. This is something Latin American regulators must take into account as they look at the Abra deal and others that emerge, especially given the region’s notorious underinvestment in airport infrastructure. Latin American aviation does have one thing on its side: Growth potential. The number of flights per capita in most South American countries is well below the number in Europe or North America, two mature airline markets. That, plus continuing strong travel demand through at least the end of the year, gives industry leaders some comfort in the future. “There’s room for everyone,” Copa Airlines CEO Pedro Heilbron said at the forum. “It’s a continent, Latin America and the Caribbean, of over 600 million people. It needs aviation. The distances are very long. So we think there’s room for all of us.” And Copa, which has long been one of the region’s most steadily profitable and largest airlines, has managed to buck the trend, avoiding both bankruptcy and consolidation so far. That, Heilbron said, will not change: “We try to do the same thing but better.” https://skift.com/2022/11/07/how-latin-america-is-the-future-of-the-airline-industry/ Antonov An-225: It Will Cost At Least €500 Million To Rebuild The World’s Largest Airplane After examining what is left of the aircraft, experts have estimated that €500 million is the sum needed to bring the Antonov An-225 back to life. In the very early stage of the Ukrainian conflict, the Russian troops destroyed the world's largest aircraft, the Antonov An-225, at Antonov's base, Hostomel Airport. Now, the manufacturer is committed to rebuilding the majestic aircraft. However, everything about this plane seems enormous, including the price of bringing it back to life. €500 million to bring the Antonov An-225 back to life After the terrible damage that the world's largest aircraft suffered in the early days of the Ukrainian conflict, the Kyiv-based manufacturer, Antonov, has made public the amount of money it would need to rebuild the giant plane. After inspecting what is left of the Antonov An-225, experts have estimated that €500 million ($500 million) will be needed to reconstruct the mega aircraft. Nonetheless, the Ukrainian manufacturer has also stated it is too soon to talk about a precise amount of money. Therefore, the exact sum will be made public at a second stage. What happened to the Antonov An-225? In the early days of the Ukrainian conflict, Russian troops immediately targeted Hostomel Airport (GML) northwest of Kyiv. The airfield is known to be the base of the Ukrainian manufacturer Antonov, which uses the airport for its cargo airline and test flights. A few days before Russia began its military invasion of Ukraine, the Antonov An-225 had landed at the facility, reportedly for maintenance. However, this would be the last time that "Mriya," meaning "the dream" or "inspiration," would take to the skies. Indeed, the aircraft was the target of military action from the Russian troops that destroyed it. Back in May, Illia Ponomarenko, a defense correspondent for the Kyiv Independent, posted a Tweet that clearly showed the degree of destruction and damage suffered by the Antonov An-225. In Ponomarenko's video, it is clearly visible how the front part of the aircraft has collapsed to the ground, with the cockpit of the giant airliner being almost completely separated from the rest of the plane. While the further part of the fuselage is reduced to a pile of wreckage, the rear part behind the wings is relatively intact. Antonov's airport: a strategic stronghold for Russian troops Why did Russian troops target Hostomel Airport at the start of the conflict in the first place? The airfield, a few kilometers northwest of Kyiv, represented a strategic stronghold for the invading army. Once the airport's control had been ensured, Russia could have transferred its troops and equipment to Antonov's base by air, orchestrating a rapid and large-scale assault on Kyiv. Although Hostomel Airport was under Russian control for some time, the Ukrainian troops managed to prevent the airfield from being used for such a purpose. Following the clashes between the two troops, the airport was no longer functional. A second Antonov An-225 is already underway. But will it ever take to the skies? The first Antonov An-225 "Mryia" was built to support the Soviet space program, Buran. Its role was to carry the program's orbiters, and its first flight dates back to 1988. Although the Soviet space program ordered two exemples of the giant aircraft, it only took delivery of Mryia. Indeed, with the fall of the Soviet Union, the Buran program also came to an end. Consequently, the first Antonov An-225 was placed into storage, while the construction of the second one was halted. With the start of the new century, the Antonov An-225 was brought to the attention of many, mainly for cargo purposes. Mryia returned to service, and Antonov planned to finish the second one. In 2006, the manufacturer aimed to have the second six-engined plane complete by 2008. However, construction works were soon delayed; by 2011, $300 million was reported as the sum needed to finish the aircraft. With the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and the following economic downward pressure, Antonov decided it was economically unviable for the manufacturer to carry on with the construction of the second aircraft. https://simpleflying.com/new-antonov-an225-cost-e500-million/ Republic Airways Reduces Embraer E175 Aircraft Order As Embraer announces an order reduction from Republic Airways, let’s take a closer look at the Indianapolis-based airline. US regional carrier Republic Airways has decreased its order with Embraer by 31 aircraft. According to a report issued on November 7th by the Brazilian manufacturer, Republic Airways now has a total of 69 Embraer E175 aircraft awaiting delivery. Republic Airways was the first airline to fly the Embraer E175 domestically in the US when it began operating them for US Airways Express in March 2007. Today, the carrier operates flights for American Eagle, United Express, and Delta Connection. Each of Republic Airways’ Embraer E175 seats 76 passengers in a two-class configuration, although the exact seating configuration of each aircraft varies according to the brand under which the aircraft is flying. A closer look at Republic Airways Republic Airways first took to the skies in 2005, and has today grown to operate over 1,000 flights per day to 100 cities across 40 US states, Canada, Central America, and the Caribbean. The airline's headquarters is located in Indianapolis, and it operates from 11 bases nationwide, including Chicago (ORD), Boston (BOS), and Philadelphia (PHL). The majority of Republic Airways’ fleet of over 200 aircraft is made up of Embraer E175 aircraft. With 165 of the type in its fleet, it is the second-largest operator of the aircraft, behind SkyWest Airlines. Overcoming the pilot shortage As pilot shortages continue to blight airlines worldwide, Republic Airways will no doubt be happy with its decision to launch its Lift Academy pilot training school back in May 2018, providing it with a pipeline of qualified pilots. The school recently developed a unique program in partnership with Indiana Wesleyan University, allowing students to earn a degree while completing their flight training. According to Republic Airways, this then offers them a preferred route into a pilot or maintenance career with the airline. The airline’s senior vice president and chief administrative officer, Matt Koscal, celebrated the training school, saying, “We believe the joy of flight should be available to all. With LIFT, we are offering intellectually curious, aspiring aviators a world-class training program and professional environment that best prepares them for the airline industry.” Clearing the backlog of deliveries As part of its Q3 report, Embraer confirmed that it had delivered 10 aircraft over the past three months. Embraer is currently working hard to catch up on a backlog of orders, including for its newest E2 family aircraft, such as the Embraer E195-E2. Carriers to have recently placed an order for the Embraer E195-E2 include Porter Airlines (20) and Oman’s SalamAir (6). Discover more of the latest Embraer aircraft order news here. The Embraer 175 aircraft remains the manufacturer’s best-selling aircraft to date, with 817 firm orders, followed by the Embraer E190 with 568 orders. The 76-seat aircraft has been an undeniable success for the manufacturer, proving popular with regional carriers around the world, including LOT Polish Airlines and KLM Cityhopper. https://simpleflying.com/republic-airways-reduces-embraer-e175-order/ International Society of Air Safety Investigators https://www.isasi.org/ Call for Papers – ISASI 2023 Nashville, Tennessee: Renaissance Nashville Hotel August 21 – August 25, 2023 The 2023 Theme is “Accidents: The Current Which Lies Beneath” This will be an in-person event with Tutorials on Monday the 21st, Seminar presentations from Tuesday the 22nd through Thursday the 24th and various gatherings throughout the week. Please find the official Call for Papers here: Call for Papers 2023 Final.pdf Please submit expressions of interest to isasi2023@isasi.org Thank you, Your ISASI 2023 Annual Seminar Committee Research Study: Professional Pilot Occupational Risk(s) Survey My name is August Parker, and I am a Doctor of Occupational Therapy Student at the University of St. Augustine for Health Sciences. I am inviting employed professional pilots to participate in this study by completing an internet survey for a project entitled, “An Occupational Perspective: Therapeutic Interventions to Facilitate Job Performance in Aviators and Astronauts”. The purpose of this study is to assess professional pilots experience with risk(s) in musculoskeletal functioning, mental health, and overall well-being for flight performance. This is a one-time, voluntary survey that is anticipated to take no more than 10 minutes to complete. If you agree, your identity as a participant will remain anonymous during and after the study. This survey is not affiliated with any aviation-related organizations or facilities. I would be grateful if you could forward this message to other pilots in your workforce. If you have any questions, please contact me, August Parker by email at a.parker@usa.edu. For more information and access to the survey, please access the link provided below: https://sway.office.com/ksURu4OaOEAXm7mC?ref=Link THIS PROJECT HAS BEEN REVIEWED BY THE UNIVERSITY OF ST. AUGUSTINE FOR HEALTH SCIENCES INSTITUTIONAL REVIEW BOARD FOR THE PROTECTION OF HUMAN SUBJECTS. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS, PLEASE CONTACT THE INSTITUTIONAL IRB CHAIR, DR. LORI KUPCZYNSKI, EMAIL: LKUPCZYNSKI@USA.EDU, PHONE: 904-330-1559 Thank you for your participation! August Parker, OTDS a.parker@usa.edu The University of St. Augustine for Health Sciences Curt Lewis