Flight Safety Information - January 30, 2023 No. 021 In This Issue : Accident: CAA A320 at Mbuji Mayi on Jan 29th 2023, dropped part of elevator on departure : Incident: Lufthansa A343 over Greenland on Jan 28th 2023, engine failure : Incident: Eurowings A320 at Tromso on Jan 28th 2023, smoke in cabin : Incident: ANZ B773 at Auckland on Jan 27th 2023, runway excursion on landing : Incident: Sunwing B738 near Toronto on Jan 27th 2023, engine shut down in flight : Incident: UPS MD11 at Louisville on Jan 27th 2023, cargo fire indication and smoke in cockpit : Incident: Asia India A320 at Lucknow on Jan 29th 2023, rejected takeoff due to bird strike : Passenger tries to remove IndiGo flight’s emergency exit cover mid-air, FIR lodged : A Pilot's Guide To De-Icing : Multiple Guns Stopped at Indianapolis, Virginia and Seattle Airports : Punished By Western Sanctions, Russia's Airlines Are Showing More Cracks And More Problems : Boom breaks ground on supersonic jet factory in North Carolina : Boeing's 747, the original jumbo jet, prepares for final send-off : Boeing losing its once-firm grip on China : ISASI - Kapustin Memorial Scholarship : RESEARCH SURVEY Accident: CAA A320 at Mbuji Mayi on Jan 29th 2023, dropped part of elevator on departure A CAA Compagnie Africaine Aviation Airbus A320-200, registration 9S-ABM performing flight BU-415 from Mbuji Mayi to Kinshasa N'Djili (DR Congo), departed Mbuji Mayi's runway 34 when most of the left hand elevator separated from the aircraft. The aircraft climbed out, the captain decided to continue the flight to Kinshasa requesting only right hand turns, climbed to FL300 enroute, performed a low pass at Kinshasa to have the aircraft assessed from the ground and subsequently, again using right hand turns only, positioned for another approach and landing on Kinshasa's runway 24 about 90 minutes after departure. The separated part of the Elevator was recovered from the aerodrome in Mbuji Mayi. According to local sources there was no collision or abnormal contact of the aircraft, it just looks like a structural failure as result of fatigue. https://avherald.com/h?article=504714d8&opt=0 Incident: Lufthansa A343 over Greenland on Jan 28th 2023, engine failure A Lufthansa A340-300, registration D-AIFE performing flight LH-490 from Frankfurt (Germany) to Seattle,WA (USA), was enroute at FL320 over Greenland (Greenland) when the crew decided to turn around and return to Frankfurt due to the failure of one of their 4 engines (CFM56). The aircraft descended to FL310 for the return and landed safely back on Frankfurt's runway 07C with emergency services on stand by. The flight was cancelled. Passengers reported the captain announced an engine had failed. They are currently stuck in Frankfurt. https://avherald.com/h?article=5046e792&opt=0 Incident: Eurowings A320 at Tromso on Jan 28th 2023, smoke in cabin An Eurowings Airbus A320-200, registration D-ABHG performing flight EW-9250 from Dusseldorf (Germany) to Tromso (Norway), was descending towards Tromso when smoke was observed in the forward cabin. The crew continued for a safe landing in Tromso. The return flight was postponed to the following day to be performed with a replacement aircraft. A replacement A320-200 registration D-AIZV positioned to Tromso the following day as flight EW-6900 and performed the return flight EW-9251 reaching Dusseldorf with a delay of about 18.5 hours. The occurrence aircraft remained on the ground in Tromso for about 20.5 hours, then positioned back to Dusseldorf as flight EW-6901. https://avherald.com/h?article=5046e546&opt=0 Incident: ANZ B773 at Auckland on Jan 27th 2023, runway excursion on landing An ANZ Air New Zealand Boeing 777-300, registration ZK-OKN performing flight NZ-124 from Melbourne,VI (Australia) to Auckland (New Zealand), landed on Auckland's runway 05R 17:40L (04:40Z) but veered right and left on the runway before vacating the runway at taxispeed via a high speed turn off. The airline reported the aircraft contacted a number of runway edge lights and damaged them. According to the NOTAMs indicating the edge lights between taxiways A8 and A9 were damaged and the ADS-B data transmitted by the aircraft the aircraft contacted the right hand edge lights. The airport reported the runway lights were repaired by about 21:30L, but shortly afterwards the airport became flooded due to torrential rains and needed to be evacuated. On Jan 29th 2023 New Zealand's TAIC (Transport Accident Investigation Commission) reported they are investigating the loss of control on the ground stating: "The aircraft landed at about 6:50pm at Auckland International Airport during wind gusts and very heavy rain. Shortly after touchdown, the aircraft briefly lost directional control, veered away from the runway centreline, regained control, completed the landing, and taxied the aircraft to the airport terminal. There was damage reported to six runway edge lights and to the aircraft’s undercarriage assembly, including deflation of one tyre. No injuries to passengers or crew were reported." https://avherald.com/h?article=504562c4&opt=0 Incident: Sunwing B738 near Toronto on Jan 27th 2023, engine shut down in flight A Sunwing Boeing 737-800, registration C-GKVU performing flight WG-732 from Toronto,ON (Canada) to Montego Bay (Jamaica), was enroute at FL340 about 230nm southsouthwest of Toronto when the crew received a low engine (CFM56) oil pressure indication and decided to return to Toronto. The crew subsequently needed to shut the engine down and landed safely on Toronto's runway 23 about 50 minutes after the decision to turn around. https://avherald.com/h?article=50464a67&opt=0 Incident: UPS MD11 at Louisville on Jan 27th 2023, cargo fire indication and smoke in cockpit A UPS United Parcel Service McDonnell Douglas MD-11 freighter, registration N275UP performing flight 5X-1276 from Louisville,KY to Raleigh/Durham,NC (USA) with 2 crew, was climbing out of Louisville's runway 17L just after being handed off to center when the crew reported they had a cargo fire indication and needed to return to Louisville for an ILS approach to runway 17L. Back on approach control to Louisville the crew, now audibly on oxygen masks, reported they now also had smoke in the cockpit and requested and were cleared for a visual approach to runway 17R, the crew advised they would stop on the runway. The aircraft landed without further incident, vacated the runway and stopped just clear of the runway, where the crew evacuated via slides. The FAA reported: "AIRCRAFT RETURNED TO LOUISVILLE AFTER DECLARING AN EMERGENCY DUE TO FIRE INDICATOR LIGHT. CREW EVACUATED VIA AIRCRAFT SLIDES AFTER CLEARING THE RUNWAY, LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY." https://avherald.com/h?article=5045a6f4&opt=0 Incident: Asia India A320 at Lucknow on Jan 29th 2023, rejected takeoff due to bird strike An AirAsia India Airbus A320-200, registration VT-RED performing flight I5-319 from Lucknow to Kolkata (India) with 170 people on board, was accelerating for takeoff from Lucknow when the crew rejected takeoff due to a bird strike. The aircraft slowed safely and returned to the apron. The airline reported during takeoff roll the aircraft sustained a bird strike prompting the crew to reject takeoff. The aircraft was grounded for inspection. https://avherald.com/h?article=5046dfd1&opt=0 Passenger tries to remove IndiGo flight’s emergency exit cover mid-air, FIR lodged New Delhi - A passenger tried to remove emergency exit cover of IndiGo flight mid-air. The incident took place on January 24 on an IndiGo flight flying from Nagpur to Mumbai. Adding to the list of incidents of unruly passengers being reported on flights, a flyer tried to pull out the cover of an IndiGo flight's emergency exit mid-air. The incident took place on January 24 on an IndiGo flight flying from Nagpur to Mumbai. The authorities filed an FIR against the passenger. "A passenger travelling on Flight 6E 5274 from Nagpur to Mumbai, allegedly tried to remove the cover of the emergency exit while the aircraft was in the air and on approach for landing," IndiGo was quoted as saying by news agency ANI. IndiGo, however, confirmed that no major security lapse happened during the landing. "There was no compromise on the safe operation of the said flight," stated the airline company. "On noticing this violation, the crew on board alerted the captain and the passenger was appropriately cautioned," it further added. An FIR was soon lodged by IndiGo against the passenger, who violated the security norms, at the local police station. "An FIR has been filed against the passenger for unauthorised tampering of the emergency exit as the aircraft was in the process of landing," read a statement issued by IndiGo. https://www.wionews.com/india-news/passenger-tries-to-remove-indigo-flights-emergency-exit-cover-mid-air-fir-lodged-557012 A Pilot's Guide To De-Icing When and why airlines are required to deice prior to departure. It's safe to say that no one enjoys deicing. It makes pilots' work a bit harder, adds time to the journey for passengers, and requires ground staff to brave the elements on a cold day. Pesky though it may be, deicing is essential to safety during winter operations. Let's talk a bit about it. When deicing and anti-icing are required Anti-icing, and perhaps deicing, is required when there is precipitation and the temperature is near or below freezing. The word "precipitation" is a catch-all for any type of moisture that might be present, be it rain, sleet, drizzle, or snow. Deicing is required if there is a build-up of snow or ice on the plane's surfaces. A plane that has been sitting on the ground overnight might have frost on the wing even if the temperature is warmer than freezing and it isn't actively snowing. This would still require deicing to ensure that the plane is not compromised aerodynamically. Though somewhat counterintuitive, aircraft must be anti-iced even if it's raining and slightly above freezing. During takeoff, the air moving over the top of the wing accelerates in a low-pressure zone created by Bernoulli's principle of fluid dynamics. This causes rapid cooling, and moisture on the top of the wing is subject to freeze, affecting the wing's ability to generate lift. A notable example of lift being compromised by snow and ice is the crash of Air Florida flight 90 in 1982. The disaster was a seminal moment for the industry's understanding of icing and catalyzed improvements to safety that are still in place today. Aircraft configuration Pilots use checklists to ready the plane for deicing and anti-icing. Usually, we open up a line of communication with the ground staff spraying the plane. When they are in position, we run the configuration checklist to ensure control surfaces are properly positioned, and the air conditioning "packs" are turned off. This is why you might notice it getting colder in the cabin while deicing. If the packs were left on, fumes from the deicing fluid might enter the air intakes. The type of fluid used for deicing depends on what is in stock at the airport, how cold it is, and whether we are anti-icing, deicing or both. For complete anti-ice protection, a glycol chemical solution is applied. The strength of the solution is rated from type I to type IV. If there's no snow at the airport and the pilots only need to clean some frost off the wing, they will likely request type I only. Higher fluid levels will be used depending on the severity of the weather. Holdover time The personnel applying the fluid tells the pilots when they begin spraying the plane, which starts a period known as "holdover." Pilots use charts or applications in their electronic flight bags to determine how long their holdover time is given the weather conditions and the type of fluid applied. The bottom line is that they must be airborne before the holdover time expires or reapply more fluid. Want answers to more key questions in aviation? Check out the rest of our guides here. With a few weeks left in the Northern Hemisphere's winter season, you might have a personal experience with deicing. If so, hopefully, this guide provides a bit of insight. Airlines adjust winter schedules and add time to flights in anticipation of deicing, so you shouldn't miss any connections! https://simpleflying.com/de-icing-pilots-guide/ Multiple Guns Stopped at Indianapolis, Virginia and Seattle Airports TSA officers at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport have discovered 11 firearms in travelers’ carry-on luggage during routine X-ray screening at the airport’s security checkpoints so far this year. This is up from seven firearms discovered at the same point in 2022. So far this year, it is hard to see that the Transportation Security Administration’s (TSA) increased penalties are deterring travelers from bringing guns to airport checkpoints. Despite fines increasing to almost $15,000 and the PreCheck penalty period being extended, airports around the country are still detecting firearms at an alarming rate. TSA officers at Indianapolis International Airport (IND) stopped a loaded handgun on Tuesday, Jan. 24 – the fourth firearm stopped at an IND checkpoint in the last seven days. TSA officers detected the gun in a carry-on bag in the checkpoint X-ray machine, and the Indiana Airport Authority police were alerted. Police responded to the checkpoint and confiscated the weapon. Two firearms were stopped at IND checkpoints on Sunday, Jan. 22. Another was stopped on Thursday, Jan. 19. Like the firearm that was detected Tuesday, all three of these were loaded. So far, TSA officers have stopped 10 firearms at IND checkpoints this year. In 2022, 68 firearms were stopped over the entire year. “It’s disturbing that so many Indianapolis passengers have made the irresponsible decision to bring a firearm to the checkpoint in just the first month of the year,” said Aaron Batt, TSA’s Federal Security Director for Indiana. “Our TSA officers continue to do an outstanding job detecting these weapons, but any time dangerous items are presented in the checkpoint, we have serious safety concerns for all in the area, and the resolution disrupts the screening process for the passengers waiting behind the offender. Individuals who own firearms should familiarize themselves with regulations regarding where their weapons can and cannot be carried.” Meanwhile, TSA officers at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport prevented yet another traveler from bringing his loaded handgun onto his flight on Jan. 25, marking the third gun caught at one of the airport security checkpoints within a week, and bringing the total number of guns detected at the airport checkpoints to six so far this month. Each weapon was caught as the individuals entered the security checkpoint. The X-ray unit alerted on the carry-on bags, which were searched and the firearms removed by the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority police who confiscated the guns and cited each individual on weapons charges. TSA officers at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (SEA) have discovered 11 firearms in travelers’ carry-on luggage during routine X-ray screening at the airport’s security checkpoints so far this year. This is up from seven firearms discovered at the same point in 2022. The latest firearm discovery occurred on January 25 around 4:30 a.m. when a TSA officer spotted the image of a firearm on the X-ray screen. TSA notified the officers with the Port of Seattle Police Department. They responded to the security checkpoint and removed the firearm from the X-ray tunnel. The traveler, who was ticketed for travel to Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, was escorted out of the security checkpoint by law enforcement. Last week, TSA announced that TSA officers at SEA detected a record 113 firearms in travelers’ carry-on luggage last year. At the current rate, TSA could break another record for firearm finds in 2023. A man was cited by police after TSA officers at West Virginia International Yeager Airport detected a loaded handgun at the security checkpoint on Jan. 23. The .45 caliber handgun was loaded with seven bullets, including one in the chamber. When the TSA officer spotted the gun in the checkpoint X-ray machine, airport police were alerted, came to the checkpoint and confiscated the weapon from the traveler. It was the second firearm detected at the airport this year. Last year, six were found in total. And on Jan. 26, TSA officers prevented a handgun from making its way onboard an airplane at Detroit Metropolitan Airport. After a TSA officer spotted the image of a handgun on the X-ray screen during the routine screening of carry-on luggage, TSA officials immediately alerted the Wayne County Airport Police. The firearm was loaded. Airport police responded and cited the traveler. This is the seventh firearm detected at the airport so far this year. Last year, 100 firearms were detected at DTW security checkpoints, and 94 were stopped in 2021. https://www.hstoday.us/subject-matter-areas/transportation/multiple-guns-stopped-at-indianapolis-virginia-and-seattle-airports/ Punished By Western Sanctions, Russia's Airlines Are Showing More Cracks And More Problems On January 9, a 4-year-old Airbus A320 operated by the Russian airline S7 was flying from the Siberian city of Bratsk to Moscow when it encountered a problem: Its toilet system malfunctioned. The flight was forced to divert to the city of Kazan for an unscheduled landing. Four days earlier, a Red Wings airline passenger jet flying from Kazan to Yekaterinburg also was forced to turn around and returned to its departure airport after its landing gear failed to retract. Two months before that, a top transport official in the Pacific coast region of Primorye sent a letter to the ministry for the development of the Far East and Arctic in Moscow: We need new passenger planes because our current planes won’t be able to fly anymore after this year. The reason, according to the letter obtained by the news outlet RBK? The plane’s Canadian-built Pratt & Whitney engines couldn’t be repaired due to Western sanctions. Since the beginning of 2023, Russian airlines have reported at least seven incidents in which flights were disrupted, delayed, or canceled, according to Russian media. While a couple incidents were blamed on human error, most were mechanical in nature. Nearly one year after Russia invaded Ukraine last February, turning a simmering regional conflict into the largest land war in Europe since World War II, cracks are showing in Russian aviation industry. Russian airlines are struggling under the weight of Western sanctions that have all but cut off the already struggling industry from badly needed imported parts. At least nine Russian airlines stopped flying in 2022, according to the newspaper Kommersant -- four of them after the national aviation regulator, Rosaviatsiya, pulled their airworthiness certificates. Experts say Russian airlines have for months turned to "cannibalization" to maintain and perform upkeep on their fleets, which range from small Canadian DHC-6 turboprops used by the Far Eastern regional carrier Aurora to the flagship national carrier Aeroflot, which flies Boeings and Airbuses, as well as Russian-built Tupolevs and Irkuts. In November, the Telegram channel Baza reported that Aeroflot had cannibalized 25 planes for parts, and another 18 aircraft were under maintenance and awaiting repairs. In December, the Russian government finally legalized the practice of cannibalization. While mechanical failures are expected in aircraft over time, a rapid increase in fleetwide mechanical failures may indicate that something fundamental has changed." -- RAND Corporation report "'Cannibalism' has indeed been used for a long time, but as a forced practice and not on a large scale. And in our situation, it becomes the only way to somehow replace the missing parts," Andrei Patrakov, the founder of the flight safety company RunAvia, told RFE/RL’s Siberia.Realities. "The obvious disadvantage of this practice is that cannibalization leads to a reduction in the aircraft fleet. No one can deny that it solves the problem of lack of spare parts only for a while." Other airline manufacturers have started tweaking maintenance regulations to accommodate the lack of replacement parts. In December, a widely read aviation channel on Telegram reported that a state-owned aircraft engine company had recommended that dirty fuel filters used on SuperJet 100 aircraft be cleaned with brake fluid instead of being replaced with new ones. The SuperJet 100 is a short-haul regional aircraft built by state aviation giant Sukhoi that has seen repeated difficulties since being rolled out in 2008, in an effort to revitalize the domestic airline manufacturing industry. A month earlier, in November, Yakutia Airlines reportedly had cannibalized so many parts from two SuperJet 100 planes in its four-plane fleet that the state leasing company from which the company obtained the planes took them back. The business newspaper Vedomosti reported in November that 80 percent of the airline’s overall fleet – which includes more than 20 Western- and Russian-made aircraft -- was out of commission due to maintenance and cannibalization issues. The paper also cited a case that predated Western sanctions: In 2020, cockpit glass needed to be replaced in one aircraft, but instead of letting the manufacturer do it, workers did it themselves -- and neglected to install plugs, which resulted in the cockpit flooding. A report published in November by the U.S. think tank RAND Corporation found at least six crashes involving Russian civilian and military aircraft in the two months prior. Four were fighter jets, two were not, the report found. "While mechanical failures are expected in aircraft over time, a rapid increase in fleetwide mechanical failures may indicate that something fundamental has changed," the report said. "Sanctions placed on Russia by the West could well be affecting Russia's ability to manufacture and maintain parts needed to keep aircraft safe." 'High Priority' As Western sanctions have bitten into the overall economy, and specific sectors like the aviation industry, authorities have tried to come up with ways to find badly needed parts -- like those needed to keep civilian airliners in the air. Not long after the February 24 invasion, the national Transport Ministry released a draft, eight-year plan for developing domestic airlines. The proposal said obtaining spare parts and maintenance supplies was a "high priority." When components begin to arrive that the aircraft developer has never heard of and didn’t approve of, made in some workshop near Tehran, then technical risks may arise." -- Aviation expert Andrei Kramarenko In early May, the government issued new regulations that broadened the ability of airlines to use spare parts in servicing their aircraft. Previously, carriers could only use parts with documentation provided by European, Canadian, or U.S. regulators. In July, Russia signed a memorandum of understanding to buy aircraft spare parts from Iran, which has struggled under Western sanctions for years. In December, according to Izvestia, the government formally legalized the practice of cannibalization, even though it was already in widespread use. The sheer number of government decrees issued on the subject, Patrakov said, demonstrated "desperation." "When it became clear that even if you allow the installation of original spare parts, but with documents from third countries, then this is not enough," he said. Russian regulators "then took an even more desperate step: They allowed non-original spare parts, even with documentation from third countries, including Iran." But cannibalization is a common practice for airlines around the world, said Roman Gusarov, editor in chief of the industry newsletter Avia.ru. He said Russian regulators had updated national rules governing the practice as a result of Western sanctions. "All airlines in the world are engaged in removing spare parts from some aircraft and rearranging them to others," Gusarov said. "Nothing new is happening. We’re only correcting our legislation by not allowing any such special dispensation," he said. "This is not carte blanche for dismantling aircraft, but a tool for managing your assets. Missing spare parts can be removed from an aircraft that’s not yet flying." Still, Trade Minister Denis Manturov said regulators were trying to avoid "total cannibalization" of aircraft for spare parts. Over The Horizon Given Russia’s vast landscape, air travel remains the only economical -- and practical -- way to travel long distances between towns, cities, and regions. The country does has an extensive railway network. For many, however, that’s not realistic -- for example, if you live in the Siberian city of Irkutsk and you have business in Moscow, which is a four-day journey by train. In Primorye, problems with the regional carrier had already forced it to cut its flights in half, Yevgeny Timonov, the deputy regional transport minister told RBK. He said Mi-8 helicopters would be put into service to reach distant settlements that previously had relied on Aurora Airlines. "The Russian aviation industry was lucky in a certain sense: By 2022, it came up with a large surplus in the fleet," said Andrei Kramarenko, an expert at the Institute for Transport Economics and Transport Policy at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow. That’s due to the economic lockdowns caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which sharply reduced air traffic and, thus, wear and tear on aircrafts and parts, he said. Still, he said one of the problems of the evolving makeshift system for maintaining Russia’s air fleets is the danger of counterfeit parts. "If spare parts are used, but with resources and with a verifiable history, that’s also no big deal," he said. "We take a plane somewhere in Bolivia, Uganda, or [Burma], disassemble it, remove the necessary components, carefully pack it up and deliver it. "But when components begin to arrive that the aircraft developer has never heard of and didn’t approve of, made in some workshop near Tehran, then technical risks may arise," he said. Patrakov drew an analogy to the restaurant industry, and McDonald's, which was one of several Western fast-food chains that pulled out of Russia following the imposition of Western sanctions. "While [McDonald's] restaurants worked on the franchise model in Russia, everything was fine," he said. "But when management passed to Russian owners, everything changed from the very get-go. You go to the toilet -- there’s not enough soap, the floor is dirty. This has happened before, of course, but much less frequently. So what's the problem?" "It seems that the people remained the same, the specialists who used to work there before," he said. "The equipment is the same, the coffee machines. Even the standards seem to be the same, although they were somehow rewritten. What’s changed?" https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-aviation-industry-problems-western-sanctions/32244641.html Boom breaks ground on supersonic jet factory in North Carolina Boom Supersonic, a Colorado aviation startup trying to resurrect supersonic passenger jets, broke ground on its manufacturing facility in Greensboro Thursday — a significant step in the company's ambitious plans in North Carolina. Why it matters: If Boom is successful in recreating the supersonic jet, it could lead to an explosion of manufacturing jobs in Greensboro, where it would assemble and test the jets. The company has made plans to hire 2,400 workers by 2030 and invest more than half a billion dollars at Piedmont Triad International Airport. If it reaches those benchmarks, it could receive more than $120 million in local and state incentives. Catch up quick: Boom has a goal of using supersonic jets to cut long trips in half, like getting from Washington, D.C. to Paris in four hours instead of eight. To do that, it will need to engineer jet engines capable of going 1,300 miles per hour over the ocean. The company, however, is still working out the designs. It signed a deal in December with Florida Turbine Technologies to design the engines after its previous partnership with Rolls Royce fell through. Go Deeper: Supersonic travel could be making a comeback United Airlines purchases 15 supersonic jets from Boom https://www.axios.com/local/raleigh/2023/01/26/boom-breaks-ground-on-supersonic-jet-factory-in-north-carolina Boeing's 747, the original jumbo jet, prepares for final send-off SEATTLE/PARIS, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Boeing's (BA.N) 747, the original and arguably most aesthetic "Jumbo Jet", revolutionized air travel only to see its more than five-decade reign as "Queen of the Skies" ended by more efficient twinjet planes. The last commercial Boeing jumbo will be delivered to Atlas Air (AAWW.O) in the surviving freighter version on Tuesday, 53 years after the 747's instantly recognizable humped silhouette grabbed global attention as a Pan Am passenger jet. "On the ground it's stately, it's imposing," said Bruce Dickinson, the lead singer of Iron Maiden who piloted a specially liveried 747 nicknamed "Ed Force One" during the British heavy metal band's tour in 2016. "And in the air it's surprisingly agile. For this massive airplane, you can really chuck it around if you have to." Designed in the late 1960s to meet demand for mass travel, the world's first twin-aisle wide body jetliner's nose and upper deck became the world's most luxurious club above the clouds. But it was in the seemingly endless rows at the back of the new jumbo that the 747 transformed travel. "This was THE airplane that introduced flying for the middle class in the U.S.," said Air France-KLM CEO Ben Smith. "Prior to the 747 your average family couldn't fly from the U.S. to Europe affordably," Smith told Reuters. The jumbo also made its mark on global affairs, symbolising war and peace, from America's "Doomsday Plane" nuclear command post to papal visits on chartered 747s nicknamed Shepherd One. Now, two previously delivered 747s are being fitted to replace U.S. presidential jets known globally as Air Force One. As a Pan Am flight attendant, Linda Freier served passengers ranging from Michael Jackson to Mother Teresa. "It was an incredible diversity of passengers. People who were well dressed and people who had very little and spent everything they had on that ticket," Freier said. TRANSFORMATIONAL When the first 747 took off from New York on Jan 22, 1970, after a delay due to an engine glitch, it more than doubled plane capacity to 350-400 seats, in turn reshaping airport design. "It was the aircraft for the people, the one that really delivered the capability to be a mass market," aviation historian Max Kingsley-Jones said. "It was transformational across all aspects of the industry," the senior consultant at Ascend by Cirium added. Its birth become the stuff of aviation myth. Pan Am founder Juan Trippe sought to cut costs by increasing the number of seats. On a fishing trip, he challenged Boeing President William Allen to make something dwarfing the 707. Allen put legendary engineer Joe Sutter in charge. It took only 28 months for Sutter's team known as "the Incredibles" to develop the 747 before the first flight on Feb. 9, 1969. Although it eventually became a cash cow, the 747's initial years were riddled with problems and the $1-billion development costs almost bankrupted Boeing, which believed the future of air travel lay in supersonic jets. After a slump during the 1970s oil crisis, the plane's heyday arrived in 1989 when Boeing introduced the 747-400 with new engines and lighter materials, making it a perfect fit to meet growing demand for trans-Pacific flights. "The 747 is the most beautiful and easy plane to land ... It's just like landing an armchair," said Dickinson, who also chairs aviation maintenance firm Caerdav. AGE OF ECONOMICS The same swell of innovation that got the 747 off the ground has spelled its end, as advances made it possible for dual-engine jets to replicate its range and capacity at lower cost. Yet the 777X, set to take the 747's place at the top of the jet market, will not be ready until at least 2025 after delays. "In terms of impressive technology, great capacity, great economics ... (the 777X) does sadly make the 747 look obsolete," AeroDynamic Advisory managing director Richard Aboulafia said. Nevertheless, the latest 747-8 version is set to grace the skies for years, chiefly as a freighter, having outlasted European Airbus' (AIR.PA) double-decker A380 passenger jet in production. This week's final 747 delivery leaves questions over the future of the mammoth but now under-used Everett widebody production plant outside Seattle, while Boeing is also struggling after the COVID pandemic and a 737 MAX safety crisis. Chief Executive Dave Calhoun has said Boeing may not design a new airliner for at least a decade. "It was one of the wonders of the modern industrial age," said Aboulafia, "But this isn't an age of wonders, it's an age of economics." https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/boeings-747-original-jumbo-jet-prepares-final-send-off-2023-01-29/ Boeing losing its once-firm grip on China US plane maker losing market share to France’s Airbus and local COMAC amid 737 MAX disaster legacy and US-China tech war US aerospace giant Boeing is launching to revive its business in China but faces stiff competitive headwinds from France’s Airbus and the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC). On the upside, Boeing’s 737 MAX is back in service on Chinese domestic routes after being grounded for almost four years following fatal crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia. On January 13, the 737 MAX was used on a flight from Guangzhou to Zhengzhou by China Southern Airlines. The Boeing 737 MAX is a family of four short- to medium-range narrow-body, single-aisle aircraft with a seating capacity of up to 230 passengers and a flying range of up to 3,850 nautical miles. Certified by the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in 2017, it is the fourth generation of Boeing 737 aircraft. China Southern, which has taken delivery of 34 of the jet and has another 16 on order, is the largest flier of 737 MAX aircraft in China. Boeing advertises the 737 MAX as follows on its website: “The 737 MAX delivers enhanced efficiency, improved environmental performance and increased passenger comfort to the single-aisle market. Incorporating advanced technology winglets and efficient engines, the 737 MAX offers excellent economics, reducing fuel use and emissions by 20% while producing a 50% smaller noise footprint than the airplanes it replaces. Additionally, 737 MAX offers up to 14% lower airframe maintenance costs than the competition.” However, design flaws in the 737 MAX’s Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) flight control software caused a Lion Air plane to crash in October 2018 in Indonesia and an Ethiopian Air plane to crash in March 2019 in Ethiopia, causing the airliner to be grounded worldwide. Subsequent investigations revealed malfeasance at Boeing and the FAA, but changes were made and flights were allowed to resume in the US in 2020, Europe in 2021 and China in 2022 with flights to China by foreign airlines. On December 28, 2022, the aircraft leasing company BOC Aviation announced that it had agreed to buy 40 new Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft to be delivered in 2027 and 2028. At the end of the year, it owned a total of 392 aircraft, managed another 35 and had an additional 206 on order. Of these, 52 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft were already owned and 82 on order by the company. They will replace older, less fuel-efficient 737NG models. BOC Aviation is headquartered in Singapore but is 70%-owned by the Bank of China. Other shareholders include American fund management giants Capital Research, Fidelity, Matthews and BlackRock. BOC Aviation is listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and has offices in Dublin, London, New York and Tianjin to serve global airline companies. While those orders look encouraging for Boeing’s bottom line, the 737 MAX faces stiff competition from the Airbus A320 family as well as the C919, COMAC’s new short- to medium-range single-aisle passenger jet. By the end of 2022, customers in China had reportedly placed orders for a total of 565 A320s and 305 COMAC C919s but fewer than 120 Boeing 737s, including both the 737 MAX and older models. The first certified C919 was delivered to China Eastern Airlines on December 9, 2022. After extensive flight tests, it is expected to begin commercial operations in the spring of this year. If so, it will mark the culmination of a development program launched by the Chinese government back in 2008. Headquartered in Shanghai, COMAC is owned by the by State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) of China’s State Council (the chief administrative organ of the People’s Republic), state investment company Shanghai Guo Sheng, Aviation Industry Corporation of China, Aluminum Corporation of China, China Baowu Steel, Sinochem, China Electronics Technology and other corporations. It is entrusted with the management of passenger aircraft development programs and the industrialization of civil aircraft in China. COMAC itself owns aircraft R&D, design, manufacturing, flight test, marketing, service and finance companies and is a shareholder of China-Russia Commercial Aircraft International Co, Ltd. It maintains offices in Los Angeles and Paris. By 2025, the Chinese government wants the C919 to have 10% of China’s domestic commercial aircraft market. If the aircraft passes its flight tests and assembly operations are up to scratch – and the company isn’t hit somehow by escalating US sanctions on Chinese technology companies – then it probably will. Important components of the C919 are either imported or made by joint ventures with American and European companies. These include the LEAP jet engine, which is manufactured by CFM International (a joint venture between GE Aviation of the U.S. and Safran Aircraft Engines of France) and flight controls, avionics, hydraulics, actuators, fuel systems and landing gear, which are made in China through joint ventures with Honeywell, Rockwell Collins, Parker and Liebherr. Boeing is organized in the same way. As US industry consultant Lee Hall of the Clew Group points out: “What most people miss is that Boeing is primarily providing an airframe with wires and hydraulics connected to supplier-provided systems such as cockpit avionics, engines, landing gear and interiors, all integrated together. These supplier-provided systems are all third party. “As the COMAC C919 airplane program was being defined, some of these suppliers saw an alternative to their two main customers’ heavy-handed approach to pricing and terms, as well as potential for their market expansion. “While the initial variant of the C919 is not as technically advanced or fuel efficient as the comparable Boeing and Airbus models, these suppliers are staking out a 50-plus year relationship, including the risks. “Can they protect their IP and deter replacement through price and relationship building, or not? After all, if China is successful in building commercial airplanes, who will know that many of the parts came from Western countries?” Indeed, to guard against possible US sanctions, Aero Engine Corporation of China is developing an alternative turbofan jet engine known as the CJ-1000A. In addition, the joint ventures with foreign companies serve as schools of technology and manufacturing. In January 2021, the US government put COMAC on its “watch list” of companies linked to the Chinese military but it has not yet blocked the export of LEAP jet engines. It seems likely that the interests of GE and other American and European components suppliers will prevail over the interests of Boeing. Indeed, Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun told investors on the company’s third-quarter 2022 earnings call last October that: “My hope is that these two big geopolitical forces [the US and China] get together and endorse free trade again and the Covid policy ultimately lightens sometime in the future in China so that they can take more deliveries of airplanes… But it’s – it is really hard for me to find signals that things are going to change in China and move in our direction.” Boeing’s latest commercial market outlook for China, announced on October 27, 2022, forecasts that China will need almost 8,485 new aircraft valued at about $1.5 trillion in the 20 years through 2041. Of these, 6,370 or 75% will be single-aisle jets serving short- and medium-haul routes. The forecast assumes that passenger traffic will grow by 4.9% annually, above the world average, and that China will account for 21% of the global commercial aircraft market 20 years from now. The latest forecast from Airbus is a bit more conservative in terms of unit shipments but assumes that single-aisle jets will account for 80% of the market and that the growth rate of Chinese passenger traffic will be 5.3% over the same period. Both Boeing and Airbus assume a post-Covid return to steady long-term growth of the world economy. In this context, Boeing noted that “2022 marks the 50th year of Boeing’s footprint in China. In 1972, China ordered the first ten 707 jets to modernize its commercial fleet and expand its international network. “Today, Boeing airplanes are the mainstay of China’s air travel and cargo system, as more than 2,000 of them have been delivered to Chinese operators in the past five decades. When releasing the 2022 China CMO, Boeing reiterates its commitment to support China’s air transportation system in the next 50 years with its world class products and services, including the 737 MAX, 787 Dreamliner and 777X families.” Airbus overtook Boeing to become the world’s largest supplier of commercial aircraft in 2019. In China, data from aviation analytics company Cirium Fleets Analyzer shows Airbus taking a slight lead a decade ago, with the gap suddenly widening in 2019. In June 2022, the Airbus A320 overtook the Boeing 737 to become the best-selling passenger jet family in the world. In 2022, Airbus delivered 661 aircraft and received new orders net of cancellations for 820 worldwide; the comparative figures for Boeing were 480 and 774. The difference came down largely to China, where Airbus delivered more than 100 aircraft while Boeing delivered fewer than 10. In a market led by demand for single-aisle passenger aircraft, Airbus and COMAC have the advantage in China. Until a few years ago, Boeing could have expected to receive about 40% of all new orders in China. Now, its recovery hamstrung by the US-China trade and tech tensions, it could be destined to remain a distant third in the high-potential market. https://asiatimes.com/2023/01/boeing-losing-its-once-firm-grip-on-china/ ISASI - Kapustin Memorial Scholarship The Kapustin Memorial Scholarship for 2023 is now open! Royal Aeronautical Society: Human Factors Group: Engineer conference 2023 Better by Design: Designing Out Maintenance Error 9 February 2023 at 4 Hamilton Place, London, W1J 7BQ and online 0900 - 1730 GMT Are you or your Company, or Organisation involved in designing aircraft and their systems, or in maintaining aircraft that you think could be designed in a way that would make maintenance more efficient and less prone to mistakes? Do you educate or train people who go on to design aircraft or their systems? Have you an involvement in setting standards or regulating design organisations? When things do go wrong, are you involved in trying to understand why? Then this is the conference for you. RAeS Human Factors Specialist Group Conference: Better by Design - Designing Out Maintenance Error (aerosociety.com) RESEARCH SURVEY Greetings, My name is Nurettin Dinler, Research Scholar and PhD student at Department of Aviation Science, Saint Louis University working with Nithil Bollock Kumar, PhD Candidate, Gajapriya Tamilselvan, PhD, and Stephen Belt, PhD. We are working on a research project titled “Low-Cost Airline Pilots on Exercising Fuel-Loading Policies during Flight: A Phenomenological Exploration Study.” I am writing this e-mail to invite you to participate in a research study that we are conducting at Saint Louis University. Your participation in this study will involve taking a semi-structured interview that lasts for about 30 minutes. During the interview, you will be questioned about your experiences with Low-Cost Airlines’ fuel-loading policies developed to minimize pilot discretionary (extra) fuel. There is no compensation provided for your participation in the study. However, your participation will be a valuable addition to our research and your findings could lead to greater understanding of risk management for pilots and the sources of stressors in commercial aviation. Participation is completely voluntary, and your participation will remain confidential throughout the process of research. If you are interested in participating in this research, please take a moment to complete the survey at the following link: https://slu.az1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_0l9Awl5UkXDiKRo If you have any questions, please contact me at 321-245-8628 or nurettin.dinler@slu.edu Thank you for your time and consideration. Regards, Nurettin Dinler, M.S. Research Scholar Oliver L. Parks Department of Aviation Science School of Science and Engineering McDonnell Douglas Hall, Lab 1046 3450 Lindell Blvd., St Louis, MO 63103 nurettin.dinler@slu.edu (321) 245-8628 Curt Lewis