Flight Safety Information - September 20, 2023 No. 182 In This Issue : Incident: Bamboo B789 at Melbourne on Sep 18th 2023, overran runway on takeoff : Incident: Summit DH8A at Thunder Bay on Sep 10th 2023, trim failure : Incident: Qantas B738 near Gold Coast on Sep 18th 2023, hydraulic leak : Fumes on Frontier flight prompt a late-night return to Denver International Airport : Brand New Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Has Piece Of Tail Cone Fall Off – After Just 4 Days : Recognizing 20 Years of Safety Improvements with IOSA : Eastern Airlines Plans New York To Wuhan Flights : Textron announces option to sell up to 1,500 Cessna Citation aircraft to NetJets : Boeing Predicts China Will Need More Than 8,000 Aircraft By 2042 : ‘May shut down’: Akasa Air in a state of crisis after 43 pilots resign; expects to cancel 700 flights (India) : GRADUATE RESEARCH REQUEST Incident: Bamboo B789 at Melbourne on Sep 18th 2023, overran runway on takeoff A Bamboo Airways Boeing 787-9, registration VN-A819 performing flight QH-83 from Melbourne,VI (Australia) to Hanoi (Vietnam), was departing Melbourne's temporarily shortened runway 34 when the aircraft rotated past the temporarily displaced runway end, the jet blast affected people and objects in the working area past the displaced runway end. Australia's TSB opened a short investigation into the occurrence stating "several unserviceability lights were damaged by the jet blast of VN-A819." Melbourne Airport stopped the works requiring a displaced runway threshold/end pending investigation. https://avherald.com/h?article=50e9e456&opt=0 Incident: Summit DH8A at Thunder Bay on Sep 10th 2023, trim failure A Summit Air de Havilland Dash 8-100, registration C-GASB performing a flight from Lansdowne House,ON to Thunder Bay,ON (Canada), was descending towards Thunder Bay when the crew received a pitch trim error announciation, disconnected the autopilot and attempted to manually trim the aircraft, however, while trimming nose down the trim stopped about half way. The crew declared PAN PAN advising they still had elevator control and would be able to trim nose up. The aircraft landed safely in Thunder Bay. The Canadian TSB reported that seals on panels 332AT and 334AT had deteriorated permitting water to ingress the trim actuators. The trim actuator was purged and lubricated and the seals were replaced. https://avherald.com/h?article=50e97a25&opt=0 Incident: Qantas B738 near Gold Coast on Sep 18th 2023, hydraulic leak A Qantas Boeing 737-800, registration VH-VXC performing flight QF-596 from Sydney,NS to Coolangatta,QL (Australia), landed on Gold Coast Airport's runway 32 but became disabled on the runway due to a hydraulic leak and loss of steering. Passengers reported they were kept on board of the aircraft sitting on the runway for about 5 hours before the aircraft was towed to the apron. The aircraft remained on the ground for about 22 hours then positioned to Sydney. https://avherald.com/h?article=50e95491&opt=0 Fumes on Frontier flight prompt a late-night return to Denver International Airport Passengers of a Frontier Airlines flight were up late waiting to board a new airplane after their original aircraft had to return to Denver International Airport for a mechanical issue and a number of medical responses. Medics responded to a gate at DIA on Tuesday night after Frontier Flight 560 returned to the airport for fumes that filled the cabin after takeoff. The outbound flight was for Raleigh–Durham International Airport in Wake County, North Carolina. According to Frontier's email to CBS News Colorado, 160 passengers were on the flight when the fumes on the airplane forced pilots to return to Denver, also requesting emergency medics for precaution. DIA also confirmed the return of the flight and response to passengers late on Tuesday. "A number of passengers and the flight crew were seen by EMS professionals at the gate," Frontier shared in its response. There were no reports that any passengers on Flight 560 needed to be taken to the hospital for more treatment. According to Frontier, a replacement aircraft was expected to continue to Raleigh-Durham and depart before the night ended. https://www.cbsnews.com/colorado/news/frontier-denver-international-aiport-dia-fumes-airplane-flight/ Brand New Alaska Airlines 737 MAX Has Piece Of Tail Cone Fall Off – After Just 4 Days A brand new Alaska Airlines Boeing 737 MAX 9 had a piece of its tail fall off enroute from Seattle to Chicago on Monday. The plane landed at 6:13 p.m. local time and remained on the ground overnight. It had only been in revenue service for four days, made sixteen passenger flights, and had been registered to Alaska for just a week. Brand new N990AK on only her 4th day of revenue service had a part of its tail come off, I’m assuming inflight. Been on the ground over 18 hours and still left on the gate, causing Alaska passengers to sit hours after landing with no gate to park at. https://viewfromthewing.com/brand-new-alaska-airlines-737-max-has-piece-of-tail-cone-fall-off-after-just-4-days/ Recognizing 20 Years of Safety Improvements with IOSA Hanoi, Vietnam – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) marked the first 20 years of the IATA Operational Safety Audit (IOSA) at the IATA World Safety and Operations Conference taking place in Hanoi, Vietnam. “Over the past two decades, IOSA has made a major contribution to improving safety, while reducing the number of redundant audits. While it is a condition of membership in IATA, more than 100 non-IATA member airlines also see the value of participating and we welcome others. Likewise, while more than 40 governments use or are intending to use IOSA in their safety oversight programs, many more do not,” said Nick Careen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Operations, Safety and Security. The safety data confirm that in aggregate, airlines on the IOSA registry have a lower accident rate than airlines that are not on the IOSA registry. Since 2005, the all-accident rate for airlines on the IOSA registry is 1.40 per million sectors, compared with 3.49 per million sectors for non-IOSA airlines. In 2022, IOSA registered carriers outperformed those not on the registry by a factor of four (0.70 accidents per million sectors vs. 2.82 accidents per million sectors). Reflecting the strong safety performance of airlines on the IOSA registry, IATA entered into IOSA’s third decade with a call for: Regulators to recognize the significant contribution to safety that IOSA makes as the global standard for airline operational safety and to incorporate IOSA into their own safety regulatory oversight programs. Airlines not yet on the IOSA registry to join. Currently, some 417 operators are on the IOSA registry, of which 107 are non-IATA members. A History of Continuous Improvement IOSA was launched in September 2003 with Qatar Airways as the first airline to be audited and join the IOSA Registry. IOSA has been a requirement for IATA membership since 2006. It is also a condition of membership in the three global airline alliances, as well as a number of regional airline associations. It is used by regulators in numerous countries to complement their safety regulatory oversight programs, and as the primary means to verify operational safety for many airline codeshare arrangements. The audit assesses an airline’s conformity with the IOSA standards and recommended practices (ISARPs). These are based on the internationally agreed standards and recommended practices set down and maintained through the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). IOSA was developed in cooperation with aviation regulatory bodies, including Australia’s Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA), the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and Transport Canada. Last year, IATA began evolving IOSA to a risk-based model under which audits are tailored to the operator’s profile and focusing on high-risk areas. The new approach also introduces a maturity assessment of the airline's safety-critical systems and programs. “IOSA is the globally recognized standard for airline operational safety auditing. Now we are taking it to the next level by tailoring the audit activity to the operator’s profile and focusing on high-risk areas. As IOSA evolves to deliver greater value for the operator and the industry, we hope additional airlines will see the value of this important safety program and strongly urge more governments to make it a formal part of their safety oversight," said Careen. IOSA by the Numbers • 417 operators on the IOSA registry • Over 4,000 IOSA audits conducted • 922 standards in the IOSA Standards Manual (ISM) • The ISM is in its 16th Edition • 14 countries include IOSA in their regulations. • Approximately 27 regulators have signed MoUs with IATA to use IOSA • Approximately 15,000 redundant audits have been avoided through audit reports/questionnaire sharing https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2023-releases/2023-09-20-01/ Eastern Airlines Plans New York To Wuhan Flights In the past I’ve called Eastern Airlines the world’s strangest airline. The carrier has a fleet of Boeing 767s and Boeing 777s, and it operates one scheduled route — a once monthly Miami to Santo Domingo flight. Well, the airline is now hoping to launch a second scheduled flight, and hopes to fly between New York and Wuhan. I mean, before we even talk about this, let’s just stop and appreciate that for a moment. An international carrier’s two scheduled flights could be Miami to Santo Domingo and New York to Wuhan. Now I’ve seen it all. In this post: Eastern Airlines plans to fly to Wuhan, China What is Eastern Airlines’ deal, anyway? Bottom line Eastern Airlines plans to fly to Wuhan, China As flagged by @IshrionA, Eastern Airlines has filed with the United States Department of Transportation (DOT), requesting permission to fly between New York and Wuhan: The airline is requested expedited approval, and hopes to launch this route in January 2024 The airline would fly from New York (JFK) to Wuhan (WUH) via Anchorage (ANC), with the authority to sell seats between New York and Anchorage (though the airline may not necessarily do that) This would be scheduled passenger service, so this isn’t charter service and isn’t exclusively cargo service (though I’m sure cargo would be a big part of the route) Eastern wants to fly from New York to Wuhan In late 2022, Eastern Airlines had requested permission to fly from New York to Shanghai, though it took the DOT many months to approve that. In the meantime, the airline has had a change of heart, and instead wants to fly to Wuhan. Honestly, this is a real head-scratcher: While Wuhan is a secondary Chinese city, admittedly it still has a substantial population, of over 12 million people Airlines could make money operating any service to China at this point, given how heavily restricted international slots are for China, which means capacity is limited and airfare is high There must be some motive for choosing Wuhan over Shanghai; is the airport offering significant incentives to airlines, or…? Eastern Airlines has Boeing 777s What is Eastern Airlines’ deal, anyway? Just for some more background on Eastern Airlines, people are often confused because the name should sound familiar, given that Eastern was a major US airline that ceased operations in 1991. Long story short, in 2015, rights to the Eastern name were purchased, though the airline went out of business. Then Dynamic International Airlines purchased the rights to the name, and that’s what modern day Eastern Airlines is. Eastern Airlines has Boeing 767s and Boeing 777s, and mostly operates as a charter airline, contracting out to the government. The airline doesn’t seem to utilize its fleet very efficiently. But what’s strangest about the airline is how it sort of dabbles in scheduled commercial service. It’s my understanding that the airline operates once monthly flights between Miami and Santo Domingo because in order to get certain government contracts, the airline needs to be a scheduled operator, and once monthly service is the minimum threshold required to achieve that. But what’s bizarre is how Eastern has continued to claim it’s going to build up a network of scheduled passenger flights, but nothing seems to stick: Eastern has a history of announcing routes and then never actually launching them The carrier’s planned route network is all over the place, as the airline was going to launch everything from Chicago to Sarajevo, to New York to Anchorage to Jinan, to New York to Los Cabos, to New York to San Diego Most of these routes didn’t end up ever launching, and those that were launched were canceled after a few flights Eastern Airlines has filed to launch a new flight between New York and Wuhan. The airline wants to launch this flight as of early 2024, with a stop in Anchorage. This would only be the carrier’s second scheduled route, in addition to the existing once monthly flight between Miami and Santo Domingo. It’s anyone’s guess if this route actually launches, given Eastern’s history of announcing routes and not actually launching them. I understanding Eastern’s focus on charter flights, but can’t for the life of me make sense of the carrier’s approach to scheduled passenger operations. https://onemileatatime.com/news/eastern-airlines-wuhan-flights/ Textron announces option to sell up to 1,500 Cessna Citation aircraft to NetJets Sept 20 (Reuters) - Textron Aviation (TXT.N) and NetJets on Wednesday signed an agreement which would give the private jet firm owned by Berkshire Hathaway an option to buy up to 1,500 additional Cessna Citation business jets over the next 15 years. Cessna Citation business jets are designed, produced and delivered by Textron. Demand for private flying remains healthy despite having tempered from the highs reached during the pandemic when the wealthy took control of their travel. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/textron-announces-option-sell-up-1500-cessna-citation-aircraft-netjets-2023-09-20/ Boeing Predicts China Will Need More Than 8,000 Aircraft By 2042 New airplanes will continue to be in high demand, given the projected growth in China's aviation market. SUMMARY • Boeing predicts that China will need over 8,000 new aircraft in the next two decades, accounting for 20% of global airplane deliveries. • The majority of the demand will be for narrowbodies, with over 1,500 widebody aircraft also required by 2042. • The growth of China's economy and domestic air travel, along with the need to replace older aircraft, will drive the demand for new planes. Boeing remains bullish on its forecast for China, suggesting it will need more than 8,000 new aircraft over the next two decades. The US plane manufacturer says that single aisle narrowbodies will make up most of the demand, while a little over 1,500 widebody aircraft would be required in China by 2042. 20% of global aircraft demand through 2042 Boeing predicts that China will need 8,560 new commercial aircraft through 2042. This accounts for around 20% of global airplane deliveries over the next 20 years. The US planemaker has also said that economic growth and an increase in demand for travel, particularly within the country, will help expand the fleet of Chinese carriers to almost 9,600 planes. Darren Hulst, Boeing's Vice President of Commercial Marketing, commented, “Domestic air traffic in China has already surpassed pre-pandemic levels and international traffic is recovering steadily. As China's economy and traffic continue to grow, Boeing's complete line-up of commercial jets will play a key role in helping meet that growth sustainably and economically.” Indeed, Boeing’s prediction about China is similar to the one made by Airbus earlier this year. The European aircraft manufacturer had said that China would account for 23% of global aircraft demand over the next two decades and could acquire 9,440 additional planes by then. Key projections Breaking down its analysis, Boeing said that given the strong demand for domestic travel in China, 6,470 of the 8,560 new planes arriving in the coming years will be single-aisle narrowbodies. As many as 1,550 widebody planes will also be delivered to the country during this time. The demand for regional jets and freighters will be 350 and 190, respectively. Two-thirds of the new planes will be needed due to the fleet development programs of Chinese airlines, while the rest will replace older aircraft and reduce the overall carbon emissions of the country’s aviation sector. All these new planes will also generate employment opportunities, and Boeing estimates that these many aircraft will need more than 400,000 aviation personnel, including 134,000 pilots, 138,000 technicians, and 161,000 cabin crew members. Maintenance and upkeep of the new aircraft alone would fuel demand for $675 billion in aviation services. Boeing 737 MAX deliveries still awaited Boeing’s prediction for China comes at a time when it is apparently close to restarting the deliveries of its 737 MAX aircraft in the country. It was reported in August that the plane maker is ready to deliver the type to China after a four-year pause. China Southern Airlines was the first to resume MAX services earlier this year when China lifted the ban on the aircraft and is likely to be the first recipient of new 737 MAXs in the country. Indeed, Boeing would want to resume the deliveries of the 737s soon in China, as much of its latest forecast depends upon the continued success of the type in the country. https://simpleflying.com/boeing-predicts-china-8000-aircraft-need-2042/ ‘May shut down’: Akasa Air in a state of crisis after 43 pilots resign; expects to cancel 700 flights (India) Akasa Air pilots resign: The sudden resignation of the pilots has forced the carrier to cancel 24 flights per day in September. Akasa Air in trouble after 43 pilots resign SUMMARY • Akasa Air says it is in a state of crisis and might shut down • 43 Akasa Air pilots left the airline to join a rival group • The airline cancelled 700 flights in August, and expects to cancel as many in Sept • The newly launched Akasa Air is in a state of crisis and might have to shut down, following the resignations of 43 pilots, the airline told Delhi High Court on Tuesday. The sudden resignation of the pilots has forced the carrier to cancel 24 flights per day in September. Akasa Air, later in a statement, added that they are prepared for "unforeseen circumstances and have contingency management strategies". They also said that they have a strong financial profile. According to a report in Business Standard, since the pilots did not serve their mandatory notice period of 6 months (for first officers) or 1 year (for captains), Akasa Air was forced to cancel scores of flights each day, the airline’s counsel told Justice Manmeet Pritam Singh Arora. The pilots have reportedly joined Akasa Air’s rival airlines. The report, citing sources, stated that a top executive wrote a letter to a rival group expressing the airline’s concerns over the pilots’ exit and called it unethical. As it stands, Akasa Air, that operates 120 flights a day, is expecting to cancel 600-700 flights this month alone if the resignations continue. It had cancelled 700 flights in August. The airline has requested the court to empower Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) to enforce the mandatory notice period rules. The airline is reportedly seeking to take penal action against the pilots and is seeking around Rs 22 crore as compensation for loss of revenue owing to cancellation and groundings of flights. The airline, while acknowledging the shortage of pilots, said in a statement on Wednesday, "We are pleased to note that our disciplined approach has helped us to be well established with a strong financial profile to execute on our ambitious plans. The airline that our team has created has generated cash from its first day of operations as a result of which the initial investment by our investors (including the investment made by Mr. Jhunjhunwala) continues to remain secure in our bank account. As a young airline, we are proud that we are adding to the company reserves even in the first year of our operations. " Last week the airline had stated that it is seeking legal recourse against the pilots who left without serving their contractual notice period. “We have sought legal remedy only against a small set of pilots who abandoned their duties and left without serving their mandatory contractual notice period. This was not only in violation of their contract but also the country's civil aviation regulation. Not only is this illegal in law but also an unethical and selfish act that disrupted flights in August forcing last minute cancellations that stranded thousands of customers causing significant inconvenience to the travelling public,” an Akasa Air spokesperson had said. The spokesperson also said, “Fortunately, that is behind us now. Thanks to the hard work of our colleagues. As a young start up, we are proud of what every Akasian has helped us build in the first year of our operations,” further adding that this kind of behaviour is “deeply disrespectful to the hard work of our entire team which shows up to work, everyday with utmost integrity”. https://www.businesstoday.in/markets/company-stock/story/suzlon-energy-bhel-shares-gain-up-to-200-in-6-months-what-kotak-says-on-these-2-stocks-397995-2023-09-12?utm_source=recengine&utm_medium=web&referral=yes&utm_content=footerstrip-3&t_source=recengine&t_medium=web&t_content=footerstrip-3&t_psl=False GRADUATE RESEARCH REQUEST I started my academic career with a BSc. in Aviation Management at Florida Institute of Technology and graduated in 2005. After relocating to Europe and completing the ATPL training, I started flying the B737NG for a scheduled low-cost carrier for four years. Afterwards, relocating to Dubai to fly for a major long-haul airline on the B777 for 8.5 years. In 2020 relocated to the UK to fly for a British long-haul airline. During Covid while there wasn't any flying, I started the MSc. in Aviation Safety, Risk Management and Regulation studies with Cranfield University and I am currently working on my thesis to complete the master's program. My thesis looks at Fatigue Risk Management System (FRMS) and the overall effectiveness that FRMS has achieved so far. It intends to focus on organisational factors within the operators and regulators to identify those factors that contribute to implementing an effective FRMS. The survey is targeted for pilots that are actively flying (either long or short-haul) and would like to share their experiences with the FRMS within their organisation. It is a short survey and should take no longer than two to three minutes of your time. I will hugely appreciate everyone's feedback. Survey Link: https://cranfielduniversity.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_4UdHcIxHD4Wweb4 Kind regards, Erdem Serifoglu Curt Lewis