Flight Safety Information - October 12, 2023 No. 198 In This Issue : Incident: Edelweiss A343 near Brest on Oct 11th 2023, engine vibrations : Incident: France A332 near Paris on Oct 8th 2023, electrical problems and multiple system failures : Pilot confusion preceded fatal mid-air collision at Reno Air Races, NTSB says : Mosquito swarm takes over plane, forcing cabin crew to cloud jet with spray : GPS jamming increases amid Israel Hamas conflict : British Airways announces cancellation of Israel flights as plane diverts from Tel Aviv : New appointee to the CASA board (Australia) : China will account for 20% of world's airplane demand through 2042 : Sage-Popovich, Inc. recently repossessed its 2,000th aircraft Incident: Edelweiss A343 near Brest on Oct 11th 2023, engine vibrations An Edelweiss Airbus A340-300, registration HB-JMC performing flight WK-4 from Zurich (Switzerland) to Tampa,FL (USA) with 285 passengers and 11 crew, was enroute at FL300 about 20nm southeast of Brest (France) when the crew reported left hand outboard engine (CFM56) vibrations and decided to return to Zurich. The aircraft descended to FL290 and landed safely back on Zurich's runway 14 about 3:10 hours after departure. The rotation was cancelled. The airline reported an irregularity on engine #1 (outboard left). The aircraft dumped fuel and returned to Zurich. https://avherald.com/h?article=50f8f94d&opt=0 Incident: France A332 near Paris on Oct 8th 2023, electrical problems and multiple system failures An Air France Airbus A330-200, registration F-GZCG performing flight AF-328 from Paris Charles de Gaulle (France) to Ottawa,ON (Canada), had just reached the top of climb at FL380 when the crew received a high number of system failure messages including electrical system, flight management guidance system, bleed monitoring computers, APU, display management computers, wing overheat detection and others. The crew attempted to reach their company via satellite phone, however, the satphone was blocked, too, as result of frequent intermittent power interruptions. The aircraft landed safely back on Charles de Gaulle's runway 09L about 100 minutes after departure. A replacement Airbus A330-200 registration F-GZCC reached Ottawa with a delay of about 3.5 hours. The aircraft returned to service about 24 hours after landing. https://avherald.com/h?article=50f8fbae&opt=0 Pilot confusion preceded fatal mid-air collision at Reno Air Races, NTSB says RENO, Nev. (AP) — A preliminary investigation suggests there was confusion among pilots just before a fatal mid-air collision at the National Championship Air Races last month but sheds little light on why. The National Transportation Safety Board released a four-page report Wednesday with some of the few details investigators have pieced together in their preliminary probe of the cause of the Sept. 17 crash that killed veteran California pilots Chris Rushing of Thousands Oaks and Nick Macy of Tulelake. Rushing had just won the T-6 title race and Macy had finished second when their vintage single-engine planes collided as they were moving into position about 300 feet (91 meters) off the ground to land at the Reno-Stead Airport, witnesses told the NTSB. The third-place pilot, Vic McMann of Vancouver, British Columbia, said neither was where he thought they would normally be before he lost sight of them as they prepared to approach the runway along what’s referred to as the “base leg” of the air traffic pattern, according to the NTSB report. McMann said he continued to slow his airplane to “create some space and time to see them.” As he got closer to the runway he spotted Macy’s plane and then “finally spotted” Rushing’s plane below his position to the right. At that point, he could see Macy’s plane in level flight, to his left. “Both airplanes were not where he expected them to be,” the report said. McMann said Rushing was on a “wider base” than the previous two flights, and Macy was “tighter” than his position, the report said. He said Rushing “crossed in front of his position from right to left and disappeared” on the right side before Macy disappeared under his left wing. “Shortly after, he observed Rushing where he expected him to be in level flight ... briefly before it began to roll to the right and descend,” the report said. Another witness stated that when the collision occurred Macy was at about a 75-degree angle headed downward in relation to Rushing’s path, the report said. A final report on the cause of the crash at the airport just north of Reno isn’t expected to be completed for at least another year. Rushing was the defending champion in the race he won that day. Macy, the runner-up, had won six times. Aviation industry experts said in the days after the crash they were dumbfounded that such experienced pilots ended up colliding. Reno Air Racing Association CEO Fred Telling, a former T-6 racer, was among those who noted the large wings on the planes used to train World War II pilots can restrict visibility for the pilot of a plane flying above another below. “If you are in a turn, something immediately below you would be blanked out,” Telling said last month. “Or it could have been the glare of the sun.” The collission brought an abrupt end to what was to be the celebrated finale of Reno’s run as the home of the national championships since 1964. Event organizers were already looking for a new home for the competition after this year, partly because of rising insurance costs since 2011. That year a P-51D Mustang suffered a mechanical failure and crashed into the apron in front of the grandstand, killing the pilot and 10 spectators and seriously injuring 70 others. It was one of the deadliest air show disasters in U.S. history. https://apnews.com/article/ntsb-investigation-fatal-crash-reno-air-races-ec0d79af998ee42913676ac7225e3472 Mosquito swarm takes over plane, forcing cabin crew to cloud jet with spray Thought snakes on a plane was terrifying? A Mexican flight was delayed for several hours after the cabin was beset by a biblical swarm of mosquitoes, as seen in a video blowing up online. The mal-aerial assault occurred on October 6 aboard a Volaris flight that was slated to travel from Guadalajara to Mexico City, Storyful reported. Little did the passengers know, that they weren’t the only flyers in the cabin — a swarm of mosquitos had reportedly stolen aboard the aircraft. The itch-inducing footage, taken by passenger Elizabeth Esmeralda Minjarez Corona, shows flight attendants frantically waving their arms and crop-dusting the air with insect repellent as the tiny terrorists fly about the cabin like something out of “Jumanji.” While the flight was initially slated to leave at 4:30 p.m., the biting interlopers forced the plane to postpone its departure time until 7 p.m. It’s yet unclear how the skeeters infiltrated the 200-skeeter aircraft, however this isn’t the first time they’ve boarded a flight at Guadalajara International Airport. Local media pointed to a similar mile-high mosquito infestation that occurred aboard a Volaris flight in 2019. “Yesterday I took a flight from @flyvolaris @viajaVolaris and the plane was full of mosquitoes,” wrote Mexican journalist Juan Manuel Jiménez in an X post describing the incident. Local media reports that the area where the airport is located presents an ideal environment for the “proliferation of mosquitoes because it is located near areas with flooding and abundant vegetation, as well as some nearby bodies of water that are contaminated. It also has to do with weather conditions.” What do you think? Post a comment. This isn’t the first time animals have wrought havoc in the friendly skies. Earlier this month, a plane flying from Thailand to Bangkok resembled an aerial Noah’s arc after a white rat and otter smuggled on board by passengers broke free and ran amok in the cabin. https://nypost.com/2023/10/11/mosquito-swarm-wreaks-havoc-on-flight-as-cabin-crew-panic/ GPS jamming increases amid Israel Hamas conflict Israel has declared war on the Palestinian militant group Hamas after it carried out an unprecedented attack by air, sea and land on October 7, 2023. The large-scale surprise attack has left more than 1,200 dead in Israel, said Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus in an update on October 11. It has since prompted retaliatory Israeli airstrikes on Gaza that have killed more than 1,055 people. During the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, the Middle East is witnessing a significant shift in the patterns of GPS interference, with data showing an increase in disruptions compared to just a week prior, according to Defence and Security Middle East. Reports have surfaced indicating Hamas has actively jammed Israeli communication systems during the initial stages of the conflict. This strategic move highlights the increase of jamming GPS and communication networks in modern warfare scenarios, where precision and coordination are imperative. Positioning, navigation and timing (PNT) services play a role in a variety of military systems and civil technologies. These services not only guide precision warfare, but also facilitate efficient transportation, communication and various civilian applications. The Middle East has a history of being a focal point for jamming and spoofing activities, impacting not only security but also regional stability and even commercial flights. For example, there have been recent reports of recurring interference allegedly caused by Russian systems in Syria, which frequently disrupts air traffic at Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion airport. Regulatory bodies, such as the Federal Aviation Administration, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency, and Israel’s aviation authority, advised airlines to exercise caution when operating in the airspace of the region. Multiple airlines have now canceled or suspended flights. With airlines reducing services and regulatory bodies advising caution, the conflict’s repercussions extend well beyond the battlefield, highlighting the critical need for security assessments or alternative PNT systems to protect civilians. https://www.gpsworld.com/gps-jamming-increases-amid-israel-hamas-conflict/ British Airways announces cancellation of Israel flights as plane diverts from Tel Aviv A British Airways flight from London to Tel Aviv turns around just before landing at Ben Gurion Airport and appears to be heading back to the UK, citing security concerns. Most international airlines have canceled flights to and from Israel in the wake of the war launched following Hamas’s brutal invasion on Saturday. While British Airways continued flying until now, shortly after the flight diverts the airline announced that it is also suspending its service to Israel. Data on flight tracking site FlightAware shows BA flight 165 arriving just to Israel’s coast before turning around and seemingly heading all the way back to London. Hamas has repeatedly targeted Ben Gurion Airport with its volleys of rockets, aiming to shut down the international hub. https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/british-airways-announces-cancellation-of-israel-flights-as-plane-diverts-from-tel-aviv/ New appointee to the CASA board (Australia) CASA announces the appointment of Dr Tarryn Kille to the board of the Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA). Dr Kille began her aviation career as a professional pilot and flight instructor, and has extensive experience across aviation research, regulatory policy and operations. She is an Associate Professor, Program Director and Aviation Discipline Lead at the University of Southern Queensland lecturing in aviation leadership and management and has a PhD in aviation sustainability. She has made an impact in the aviation education industry, building new post-graduate programs with the University of Southern Queensland and Griffith University. Dr Kille brings a strong understanding of policy and regulatory frameworks, having worked in these areas previously, and brings a unique set of skills to the board of CASA. Her qualifications and experience will help shape and govern CASA as it navigates future opportunities and challenges. I look forward to continuing to work with the CASA Board to ensure Australian aviation remains among the safest in the world and a world-class leader. For more information on the work of CASA visit www.casa.gov.au https://minister.infrastructure.gov.au/c-king/media-release/new-appointee-casa-board China will account for 20% of world's airplane demand through 2042 Boeing is forecasting that China will need 8,560 new commercial airplanes through 2042, driven by economic growth well above the global average and increasing demand for domestic air travel. China's commercial airliner fleet will more than double to nearly 9,600 jets over the next 20 years, according to Boeing's Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), the company's long-term forecast of demand for commercial airplanes and related services. With its ongoing recovery of air travel, China will account for one-fifth of the world's airplane deliveries in the next two decades, according to the CMO. China's domestic aviation market also will be the largest in the world by the end of the forecast period, helping power demand for 6,470 single-aisle airplanes such as the Boeing 737 MAX family. "Domestic air traffic in China has already surpassed pre-pandemic levels and international traffic is recovering steadily," said Darren Hulst, Boeing vice president, Commercial Marketing. "As China's economy and traffic continue to grow, Boeing's complete line-up of commercial jets will play a key role in helping meet that growth sustainably and economically." Boeing forecasts that in addition to the demand for single-aisle jets, Chinese carriers will require 1,550 widebody airplanes mainly to support a growing network of international routes. Fleet growth will drive two thirds of forecast deliveries in China, while the remainder will replace older jets with modern airplanes that increase efficiency and reduce CO2 emissions. Continued growth in e-commerce and express shipping will drive demand for 190 new freighter deliveries. Boeing expects China will require 433,000 new aviation personnel – including 134,000 pilots, 138,000 technicians and 161,000 cabin crew members – to serve its growing market. China's commercial fleet will generate demand for $675bn in aviation services including maintenance, repair, training and spare parts. Airbus, the European aircraft manufacturer, agrees. The plane maker recently raised its forecast for aircraft demand in China, saying that over the next 20 years, Chinese carriers are expected to acquire 9,440 new airplanes to meet expanding commercial air travel demand. In the next two decades, Airbus expects China's demand will account for 23% of total new airplanes required globally, reflecting the country's market rebound and further evolution of its fleets following the Covid-19 pandemic, according to Airbus' latest forecast. "In recent years, the focus of the global aviation industry has gradually shifted eastward to China and the Middle East. By 2042, the Asian market, particularly China, India and the Middle East, will show a strong demand for air travel," said Francois Cabaret, head of global market forecast at Airbus. Chinese airlines’ need to renew their fleets of aircraft could offer an opportunity for Boeing, but ongoing US tensions and the launch of China’s first domestically built narrowbody passenger jet may undermine its efforts to compete with European rival Airbus and pick up new orders in the aviation market. Airbus also noted that there is no direct competition between high-speed trains and the air travel market. For instance, Japan and France both have developed high-speed train networks and are complementary to the civil aviation sector. For transportation between Beijing and Shanghai, demand for both high-speed trains and air travel is growing quickly. Last year, Boeing said it was disappointed that “geopolitical differences continued to constrain US aircraft exports” in response to China’s three biggest state-owned airlines buying 300 jets from Airbus. China was the first country to ground the 737 MAX in March 2019 after 346 people died in two crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia less than five months apart, and Boeing’s flagship narrowbody passenger jet only returned to service this year. Meanwhile, demand for airfreight is growing consistently. By 2042, the global fleet size of cargo aircraft in service is likely to reach 3,230, including 920 newly manufactured planes and 1,590 freighters that are converted from passenger aircraft, Airbus projected. "During the pandemic, the demand for air cargo rebounded strongly. In the post-pandemic era, the demand has resumed to the original range. Airbus is in discussions with logistics, air cargo and e-commerce companies for potential co-operation. We are highly optimistic about the growth potential of China's airfreight market," said Liu Li, senior vice-president of Airbus and head of commercial for Airbus China. In China, Guangzhou (CAN) remains the largest airport in China with 4.4% of the country's domestic market, and 124k more seats than the next largest airport, Beijing (PEK). Domestic capacity at CAN is now 11.1% higher than October 2019. Combined, domestic capacity at Beijing Capital (PEK) and Beijing Daxing (PKX) was 5.5mn seats, 31% more than in October 2019. China Southern remains the largest airline for domestic capacity in China, followed by China Eastern. Between them, these airlines continue to operate almost a third of domestic departing seats. Ranked third in the domestic market for capacity, Air China continues to grow at the greatest rate with 44% more seats than in October 2019. Sichuan Airlines, China Eastern and China Southern have also grown capacity since October 2019 by 18%, 17% and 16% respectively. Beijing Capital to Shanghai remains the busiest domestic route in China (despite a 5% decrease vs October 2019). Chinese carriers' international capacity increased by 9% this month; adding 407k seats between October 2023 and September 2023, bringing the total number of seats flown to nearly 5mn. International airline capacity is now 57% of where it was in October 2019 and makes up 6.4% share of all Chinese airline capacity. International airline capacity is still 43% lower than October 2019 levels. South Korea remains the busiest international route with over 76k more seats in October 2023, an increase of 13% vs September 2023. Capacity to Thailand increased by 16% vs September 2023, following declines in previous months. https://www.gulf-times.com/article/669888/business/china-will-account-for-20-of-worlds-airplane-demand-through-2042 Sage-Popovich, Inc. recently repossessed its 2,000th aircraft. The Valparaiso-based aviation firm, which specializes in recovery, aviation appraisals, valuations and liquidations, seized a Bombardier CRJ700 plane from an East Coast airport. “The recovery of our 2,000th aircraft represents more than 2,000 complex problems resolved for our clients. It’s much more than just the recovery of property. For many of the entities we serve, these recoveries mark the end of long and arduous challenges. I can say that on behalf of our entire staff, there’s no greater feeling than delivering peace of mind to our customers,” President Petar Todorovic said. Founded in 1979, the company values aircraft and aviation spare parts. Operating out of the Gary/Chicago International Airport, it also does aviation consulting and offers support for aircraft, engines, spare parts, tooling and ground support equipment. Michigan City Hardee's workers stole customers' credit cards to bail inmates out: cops Area pastor charged with battering child at church day care after video surfaces online “Over all these years that we’ve been in business, we’ve certainly seen our fair share of clients with unique recovery needs," Chairman and Founder Nick Popovich said. "Some of which have even seemed impossible at first. But one thing our company takes great pride in, especially under the leadership of Petar and our management team, is our unwavering commitment to exceeding the expectations of each and every one of our clients. We end the headaches that others cannot.” The company has been growing as demand has returned. “Aviation has certainly recovered, and airlines are flying. We are above pre-COVID levels in most domestic markets for air travel, and international is not far behind," Todorovic said. “However, smaller airlines and business jet operators, especially those with high debt or a fleet of mainly leased aircraft, are feeling the strain due to higher interest rates, supply chain disruptions, and operating expenses. Rising rates are making it difficult for companies to refinance notes that are coming due, and banks have tightened their lending standards on their aircraft. Lately, our company has seen an uptick in inspections, records audits and appraisals so our clients have a current status on their assets. A few have also moved forward with repossession." https://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/sage-popovich-repossesses-2-000-aircraft/article_5f572f94-6864-11ee-a916-779aa0e0de35.html Curt Lewis