Flight Safety Information - December 8, 2023 No. 235 In This Issue : Incident: S7 B738 at Novosibirsk on Dec 8th 2023, both engines stalled on initial climb : Accident: Lulutai SF34 at Vava'u and Nuku'alofa on Dec 8th 2023, hydraulic problem, gear problem and gear collapse : U.S. marshal in custody after being accused of sexually abusing woman during flight to London : Hawker Hunter Aggressor Jet Ends Up In Field After Aborted Takeoff : Pilots say they're afraid to seek mental health care. The FAA says it's listening : Single-Pilot Cockpits: US Pilot Union ALPA Weighs In On The Dangers : Flight safety in Canada is plummeting, a confidential UN agency report finds : Man Who Caused Bomb Threat Diversion On Breeze Airways Flight Was Arguing With His Ex-Girlfriend Who Had Just Broken Up With Him : New FAA rule would see non-US aircraft mechanics tested for drugs and alcohol : BEA: Poor Crew Coordination Caused Amelia ERJ145 Orly Runway Overrun : GAO report recommends FAA evaluate launch mishap investigation procedures : Jet stream will get faster as climate change continues, study finds : CALENDAR OF EVENTS Incident: S7 B738 at Novosibirsk on Dec 8th 2023, both engines stalled on initial climb An S7 Sibir Airlines Boeing 737-800, legal registration VQ-BKV (illegal disowned registration RA-73665) performing flight S7-2502 from Novosibirsk to Moscow Domodedovo (Russia) with 176 people on board, was in the initial climb out of Novosibirsk's runway 25 when shortly after becoming airborne the right hand engine (CFM56) emitted a series of bangs and streaks of flames, soon after the left hand engine also emitted a series of bangs and streaks of flames. While maintaining about 600 feet AGL the crew managed to stabilize the engines, subsequently climbed to 2000 feet MSL and returned to Novosibirsk for a safe landing on runway 07 about 10 minutes after departure. Passengers reported they already saw the right hand engine emitting sparks during the takeoff run, shortly afterwards the engine emitted bangs and streaks of flames, a short while later the left hand engine "joined in". The captain announced both engines had failed. The airline reported both engines were suffering fluctuations in engine speed, the crew was able to restore normal engine operation. The commander decided to return as a precaution for further aircraft inspections and commenced a normal landing. There had been no engine fire. https://avherald.com/h?article=51224dbc&opt=0 Accident: Lulutai SF34 at Vava'u and Nuku'alofa on Dec 8th 2023, hydraulic problem, gear problem and gear collapse A Lulutai Saab 340B, registration A3-PUA performing flight L8-14 from Nuku'alofa to Vava'u (Tonga) with 35 people on board, was on approach to Vava'u when the crew decided to return to Nuku'alofa due to the failure of a hydraulic system and problems with the landing gear. On landing back on Nuku'alofa's Fua'amoto Airport's runway 29 at about 14:00L (01:00Z) the aircraft collided with a concrete structure off the runway causing the collapse of the right hand landing gear. There were no injuries, the aircraft sustained substantial damage. Passengers reported while on landing approach to Vava'u the aircraft suddenly changed direction and turned away from Vava'u again, the captain subsequently announced there had been a technical problem and they were returning to Nuku'alofa. Cabin crew told the passengers there was a hydraulic problem. When the aircraft landed back in Nuku'alofa there was a massive boom and the aircraft went sideways, seats broke, then the aircraft suddenly stopped as if it had hit something. The aircraft was evacuated. In a press release the airline reported the aircraft had safely landed back and was taxiing to the terminal when upon turning the aircraft experienced a technical issue, turned and hit a cement block on the side of the apron with the right hand wing becoming lodged on the cement block. https://avherald.com/h?article=5122401e&opt=0 U.S. marshal in custody after being accused of sexually abusing woman during flight to London A deputy U.S. marshal traveling to London to help extradite a criminal defendant has been taken into custody by British authorities after he was accused of sexually abusing a female passenger on a Delta Airlines flight, four law enforcement officials said. The federal marshal was one of two deputies traveling on a Delta flight from New York City’s John F. Kennedy International Airport to London when the woman complained to the flight crew that she had been inappropriately touched during the flight, the sources said. A Delta spokesman confirmed there was an incident on the flight. “Due to unruly passenger behavior while in flight, Delta Flight 1, JFK to London-Heathrow, was met by local law enforcement upon landing, and Delta is cooperating with their investigation,” the spokesperson said. Two law enforcement sources said the two federal marshals had been drinking during the flight. The second marshal was being sent back to New York on Wednesday night without facing any charges. Both deputies, who are assigned to the Eastern District of New York, were en route to London to bring back a suspect wanted in Brooklyn on federal fraud-related charges. Metropolitan Police in London said in a statement that their officers at Heathrow Airport were informed that the marshal had “sexually assaulted other passengers and crew” aboard the flight, adding that the marshal, who is 39, was arrested on suspicion of sexual assault and remains in custody. A spokesman for the U.S. Marshals Service said it was aware that the officer “engaged in serious alleged misconduct while intoxicated on an inbound flight.” The spokesperson added that the Marshals Service is cooperating with U.K. law enforcement and other agencies. “The U.S. Marshals Service takes seriously any allegations of misconduct by its employees. The alleged actions of the employees do not reflect the professionalism of the thousands of employees of the USMS or its core values,” the statement read. https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-marshal-custody-being-accused-032616111.html Hawker Hunter Aggressor Jet Ends Up In Field After Aborted Takeoff The privately owned fighter was supporting training operations under contract out of Boca Chica Field in Key West when the mishap occurred. A Hawker Hunter Mk 58 jet belonging to private contractor ATAC ended up in a grassy field at Naval Air Station Key West after an aborted takeoff on December 6, 2023. AHawker Hunter Mk 58 aggressor jet belonging to private contractor Airborne Tactical Advantage Company, or ATAC, came to rest on a grassy patch at Naval Air Station Key West yesterday after an aborted takeoff. The exact status of the aircraft is unknown, but the pilot was not injured in the incident. "An MK-58 Hawker Hunter aircraft aborted take-off from NAS Key West’s Boca Chica Field at approximately 9:50 a.m. Dec. 6, 2023," a Navy spokesperson at Naval Air Station Key West (NAS Key West) confirmed to The War Zone today. "The aircraft landed in a grassy field just off the end of the runway on Navy property. The pilot is uninjured." A post on NAS Key West's official Facebook account yesterday said an "aircraft incident" had occurred, but provided no further details about the type of aircraft or what had happened. The mishap is now under investigation. "ATAC MK-58 Hawker Hunters are at NAS Key West in a training capacity," the spokesperson for NAS Key West added today. Naval Air Station Key West is situated on Boca Chica Key in the Florida Keys and is a major training hub for the Navy's tactical jet fleets. Exactly what type of training the Hunter was supporting at the time of the incident is unknown. However, ATAC's fleet of ex-Swiss Air Force Hawker Hunters, which were all built more than six decades ago, are regular participants in U.S. Navy exercises in and around the United States, as well as at locations around the world. They are typically used to play the role of enemy combat jets and subsonic cruise missiles, including during Composite Training Unit Exercises, or COMPTUEXs, which are the final phase for carrier strike groups working up to their next operational deployments. ATAC Hunters also fly in those same roles in support of U.S. military test and evaluation activities. Five Mk 58s operated by ATAC have crashed in separate mishaps since 2012. The pilots died in two of those incidents, which occurred in 2012 and 2014. The former U.S. Navy F/A-18E/F Super Hornet pilot at the controls of the Hunter that went down in 2017 survived and you can read more about him and that incident in this past War Zone piece. The pilots of the Mk 58s that went down the following year and then in 2022 also survived, though the latter individual suffered a major injury. Another one of ATAC's Hunters was involved in a runway excursion incident at Marine Corps Air Station Yuma (MCAS Yuma) in Arizona in 2021. The pilot of that aircraft escaped that mishap uninjured. ATAC flies other aircraft as aggressors in support training exercises and test and evaluation activities, as well. A major component of its fleet is now made up of ex-French Air Force Dassault Mirage F1 jets, two of which have also crashed in recent years. Whether or not the Hawker Hunter involved in yesterday's incident at NAS Key West is in a condition where it could be put back into use remains to be seen. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/hawker-hunter-aggressor-jet-ends-up-in-grass-in-key-west Pilots say they're afraid to seek mental health care. The FAA says it's listening WASHINGTON — When commercial pilot Troy Merritt realized that his anxiety and depression were getting worse, he wanted to seek treatment. But he hesitated, because he feared what would happen next. "I faced months to years out of work, navigating the complicated certification process to get my medical [certificate] back. And the possibility of being told I could never fly again," Merritt said. "These prospects only worsened my anxiety and depression, and made an important personal health decision even more difficult," he said. Merritt, a first officer at United Airlines, spoke at a so-called summit meeting in Washington, D.C. Wednesday devoted to mental health in aviation. Pilots and other aviation professionals described their personal struggles with anxiety, depression and substance abuse, and urged federal regulators to reform rules that often discourage people from seeking treatment because they're afraid of losing their medical clearance to work and fly. The National Transportation Safety Board convened the gathering to encourage aviation professionals to seek treatment if they need it, and to call attention to policies that may be preventing that from happening. "The safety risk comes from a culture of silence around mental health, not about seeking help," said NTSB chairwoman Jennifer Homendy. A strained U.S. aviation system braces for a record-setting week of holiday travel The Federal Aviation Administration has signaled it is open to changing its policies around mental health. This week, the FAA announced a new advisory panel to evaluate those policies and issue recommendations "to identify and break down any remaining barriers" that discourage pilots and air traffic controllers from seeking mental health care. "We need to get folks to act earlier in the process. Early, before things get really bad," said Penny Giovanetti, a top medical official at the FAA. The agency is committed to "dispelling the myths and destroying the barriers," she said. Giovanetti acknowledged a lack of trust between the FAA and pilots, who don't believe the agency's assurances that they can fly again after a mental health diagnosis. The vast majority of pilots do ultimately get their certification back, Giovanetti said. But she acknowledged that the process can often take months or years, calling those excessive delays "the elephant in the room" that can discourage pilots from seeking treatment. The issue was thrust back into the spotlight in October when an off-duty pilot was accused of trying to shut down the engines during a Horizon Air flight. 'I'm not okay,' off-duty Alaska pilot allegedly said before trying to cut the engines An Oregon grand jury this week declined to indict Joseph Emerson for attempted murder, but it did charge him with 83 misdemeanor counts of recklessly endangering another person and one count of endangering an aircraft. Emerson's family says he was suffering from depression, but avoided seeking treatment because he was afraid of losing his medical certification. Pilots say that practice is widespread, as many worry that it will be expensive and time-consuming to get their medical certifications back if they seek treatment. "Every week my Instagram, my LinkedIn, my texts are filled with pilots who are asking for help. What do I do?" said Dr. William Hoffman, a clinical neurologist who has studied health care avoidance by pilots. "I wish there was more we could do, other than contribute to these discussions about how do we think about this in a new way," Hoffman said at Wednesday's summit. A shortage of air traffic controllers is hurting safety, aviation experts warn Senate Pilot Troy Merritt says he ultimately decided to seek treatment, and is glad he did. "Today I have no regrets for taking care of my mental health. It was absolutely the right thing for me to do," Merritt said. Merritt says his treatment has gone well, and he hopes to begin flying again in six months to a year. In the meantime, Merritt says he is fortunate to have disability insurance through his union, which has helped support him while he is grounded — a luxury not all pilots have. "There are so many untold stories of pilots — pilots I know personally — who struggle with their mental health. And avoid care because they feel trapped by the system, and their options within that system," Merritt said. https://www.npr.org/2023/12/06/1217591486/pilots-mental-health-treatment-lose-license-ntsb-faa Single-Pilot Cockpits: US Pilot Union ALPA Weighs In On The Dangers • The single-pilot cockpit concept is currently being developed by several aircraft manufacturers. SUMMARY • ALPA warns against the dangers of single-pilot cockpits, citing increased workload for the remaining pilot and the loss of constant monitoring and redundancy provided by the second pilot. • Implementing eMCO would mean no direct help in case the single pilot becomes incapacitated or has a psychological break, posing a significant safety risk. • The loss of checks and balances on a single pilot's decision-making could compromise the safety of the aircraft, as recent incidents have demonstrated the need for a flight crew with multiple pilots. • In a recent edition of the Air Line Pilot Magazine, the Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA) penned an article explaining the dangers of possible single-pilot cockpits. The article was written by Captain Jason Ambrosi, the President of ALPA, Captain Otjan de Bruijn, the President of the European Cockpit Association, and Captain Amornvaj Mansumitchai, the President of the International Federation of Air Line Pilots' Associations. It explains the downside of transitioning from the requirement of two pilots in a cockpit to a single pilot, also recognized as Extended Minimum Crew Operations (eMCO). Single pilot concepts Overall, eMCO describes the reduction of pilots required on the flight deck during normal operations. This means that only a single pilot is required for extended periods of time. Specifically, only one pilot is required during the cruise period, while the second pilot is resting outside the flight deck. It significantly reduces the number of pilots needed on flights, but especially for long-haul flights. One way of implementing this change is utilizing automation and artificial intelligence (AI) in the cockpit. AI would significantly reduce the workload of the pilot in command of the aircraft. Currently, automation systems in the cockpit are simply an extension of the pilot's operations and do not "have a mind of its own." ALPA specifically noted that the organization does not oppose the advancement of automation technology. However, it stated, "Automation, however, is no replacement for the skills and experience possessed by the two or more pilots who are currently required to be on the flight deck and at the controls at all times." Several manufacturers and airlines are leading the possible charge for single-pilot flight decks. Airbus even mentioned reducing the flight crew on long-haul flights, specifically. Additionally, Cathay Pacific set a lofty goal of achieving single-pilot Airbus A350 flights by 2025. The airline cites a huge saving in crew costs if implemented. The Cathay Pacific-Airbus partnership is known as Project Connect, and further implements in-flight rest periods for pilots. However, this looks to be a challenge to implement in the coming years. Earlier this year, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) officially ruled out single-pilot flights by 2030. For single-pilot regulations to be implemented, public acceptance would be needed in addition to approval from airlines, pilots, and regulatory bodies across the world. Associated eMCO risks ALPA believes that two pilots on the flight deck are absolutely essential for safe flights. Currently, airline flying is designed for a team of pilots to ensure safe operations. The organization has stated that moving from two pilots on the flight deck to one will increase the workload for the remaining pilot. It will also remove a layer of constant monitoring and redundancy that is done by the second pilot while in flight. Switching to eMCO would mean that there would be no direct and readily available help in case the single pilot becomes incapacitated or has a psychological break. The other major risk is the loss of checks and balances. The entire safety of the aircraft would be reliant on a single pilot's decision-making without any additional input. Currently, if a change in circumstance occurs, such as weather, equipment malfunctions, or necessary diversions, both pilots can discuss the best course of action and reach a conclusion. Several incidents have occurred recently that have needed a flight crew with multiple pilots, such as a near collision at Austin-Bergstrom Airport earlier this year, to ensure the safety of the aircraft. https://simpleflying.com/alpa-dangers-single-pilot-cockpit/ Flight safety in Canada is plummeting, a confidential UN agency report finds MONTREAL - A draft report from a United Nations agency gives Canada a C grade on flight safety and oversight, down from an A+ and far below most of its peers. The confidential audit from the International Civil Aviation Organization says the country has fallen precipitously since 2005 in three safety areas: aircraft operations, airports and air navigation. The information you need to know, sent directly to you: Download the CTV News App The UN body is recommending that the federal government establish a system to lock in full regulatory compliance by airlines and airports, shore up certification related to dangerous goods and ensure proper training and fatigue management for air traffic controllers. Ross Aimer, CEO of California-based Aero Consulting Experts, says a shortage of air traffic controllers and a trend toward off-loading safety responsibilities from government onto industry players remain concerns across the continent. However, University of Manitoba transport institute director Barry Prentice says Canada's flight safety record speaks for itself, with plane accident deaths down in recent years and no major commercial airline crashes in decades. The government had until Oct. 30 to respond to the agency's draft audit, and a final report is expected in the coming months. https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/flight-safety-in-canada-is-plummeting-a-confidential-un-agency-report-finds-1.6677867 Man Who Caused Bomb Threat Diversion On Breeze Airways Flight Was Arguing With His Ex-Girlfriend Who Had Just Broken Up With Him Aman who caused a bomb threat emergency onboard a Breeze Airways flight from Orlando to Rhode Island on Tuesday was arguing with his ex-girlfriend, who had just broken up with him, a new criminal complaint alleges. Evan Sims, 41, of Rhode Island, has been charged with maliciously making a bomb threat on a commercial airliner and, if found guilty, faces a potential maximum sentence of up to 20 years in prison, according to US Attorney Roger B. Handberg. An affidavit filed by FBI investigators who responded to the bomb threat emergency onboard Breeze Airways flight 717 explains how Sims started to act strangely when his girlfriend told him that their relationship was over after he threatened to ‘fire up a vape’ during boarding. In response to being publicly dumped, Sims deliberately spilt a drink on his ex-girlfriend and called her a ‘bitch’ before making various comments about the plane and the airline, specifically referring to needing to use the emergency doors and asking flight attendants about the emergency life raft. He even made comments about the aircraft ‘going down’, although he later claimed he only mentioned this because he is a nervous flyer and isn’t familiar with Breeze Airways. Passengers sitting around Sims became so alarmed about what he was saying that they asked to switch seats, but by this point, the Airbus A220 aircraft was already taxiing for takeoff, and they weren’t permitted to move. Things, however, got even more out of hand shortly after the plane had taken off. While the plane was still in its initial ascent, Sims allegedly partially stood up and exclaimed to the cabin that he wanted to get off the plane. Also read... Saudi Arabia Will Take a 10% Stake in Heathrow, Joining a Multinational Group of Investors in the London Airport By this point, flight attendants realized it would be a good idea to move Sims’ ex-girlfriend to an alternative seat but weren’t immediately able to take action because the seat belt signs were still switched on. Before they had the opportunity to move his former lover, Sims twice stated that his ex had a bomb. Sims was so loud that other passengers around him, including an off-duty law enforcement officer, could hear. At this point, the pilots radioed their head office for advice and a decision was then taken to divert the plane to Jacksonville, Florida, where a full bomb threat emergency was initiated. Bomb detection sniffer dogs did not, however, detect anything of concern. As he was led off the plane by law enforcement, Sims was heard apologizing was disrupting their travel plans, and when interviewed by the FBI, Sims said his comments had been ‘misconstrued’. The other passengers had misheard him as he never said the word ‘bomb’, Sims first told federal agents, before acknowledging that he may have ‘accidentally’ said the word once. After diverting to Jacksonville, Breeze Airways was forced to cancel the rest of the flight and told passengers to get hotel rooms for themselves before continuing the flight the next day. Breeze Airways is a relatively new low-cost airline which was founded by the serial airline entrepreneur David Neeleman. The Utah-based carrier started flying in 2021 and operates a fleet of brand-new Airbus A220 aircraft, as well as Embraer regional aircraft. https://www.paddleyourownkanoo.com/2023/12/08/man-who-caused-bomb-threat-diversion-on-breeze-airways-flight-was-arguing-with-his-ex-girlfriend-who-had-just-broken-up-with-him/ New FAA rule would see non-US aircraft mechanics tested for drugs and alcohol A union in the United States (US) has thrown its weight behind a new rule proposed by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to test overseas aircraft mechanics for drugs and alcohol. Under the new rule, certificated repair stations located outside the US, whose staff carry out ‘safety-sensitive maintenance functions’ on certain air carrier aircraft, would be required to implement a drug and alcohol testing program. According to the FAA, few countries require testing of aviation or maintenance personnel. “This rule would ensure these employees are held to the same high level of safety standards regardless of where they are physically located,” the FAA said. The International Brotherhood of Teamsters union said that it “applauded” the rule, which would see overseas technicians face the “same drug and alcohol screening as safety-sensitive aircraft mechanics” as in the US. Joe Ferreira, Teamsters Airline Division Director, said: “This is a critical step forward in ending our two-tiered aviation safety system, whereby mechanics in countries like China, El Salvador, Brazil, and Singapore don’t have to abide by the same rules as American aircraft technicians, who are among the most talented and knowledgeable in the world.” Ferreira added: “There’s a huge segment of the flying public that doesn’t know that the airplane they are flying on might be repaired by someone who isn’t subject to the same substance abuse screening as a technician in this country. When passengers find out about this, they are usually outraged and horrified.” Teamsters said that the move would protect US airlines, small and large, that are sending maintenance work to overseas facilities without any scrutiny regarding the drug and alcohol use of employees. Bob Fisher, Teamsters Airline Division Deputy Director, said: “This will go a long way towards onshoring aviation maintenance jobs by ending an economic incentive that puts the flying public at risk. We will continue to oppose the outsourcing of the work in our craft and demand additional regulatory and statutory requirements to ensure airlines can’t cut corners to save money overseas. We look forward to providing the FAA with our insights during the rulemaking process, and to the expeditious implementation of the mandate once it’s finalized.” If the rule is finalized, the repair stations in question would need to ensure that their employees receive all necessary anti-drug and alcohol training. The facilities would then be responsible for sending staff testing data electronically to the Department of Transportation in the US. The FAA estimated that the proposed rule would impact approximately 977 repair stations in 65 countries. https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/faa-rule-overseas-drug-alcohol-testing BEA: Poor Crew Coordination Caused Amelia ERJ145 Orly Runway Overrun LYON—A serious incident involving an Amelia International-operated Embraer ERJ145 regional jet in 2022 at Paris Orly Airport was caused by inadequate action by both pilots in challenging weather conditions, says France’s BEA accident investigation bureau. The poorly coordinated approach and landing resulted in a 1,500-ft. runway overrun, the BEA reports. The aircraft was damaged only slightly, and none of the 39 passengers or three crewmembers (including one flight attendant) were injured. The incident took place on Oct. 20, 2022, some 20-30 min. after sunset and between thunderstorms. The aircraft was flying on a regular route from Rodez in southwest France. In-production commercial aircraft are now equipped with runway overrun protection systems. This was not the case for Amelia’s ERJ145. The contributing factors the BEA identified start with the lack of sharing of doubts and concerns, meaning the crew did not have a common plan. Crew collaboration during descent was “disintegrated” and the roles of the pilot flying (PF) and the pilot monitoring (PM—in this instance, the captain) were not distributed as they should have been, investigators say. Moreover, they add that they saw an evolution toward an “autocratic cockpit,” where the captain exceeded the role as a PM and the PF accepted without asserting himself. The pre-approach briefing factored in the thunderstorm threat, but the crew stopped short of planning mitigation. During the descent, the crew was unable to agree on a strategy to avoid storm cells. The distribution of roles between the PF and PM, as well as decision-making and situational awareness, gradually deteriorated. The PM took initiatives that effectively ignored requests from the PF. Subsequently, he made control inputs without prior coordination with the PF, according to the BEA. This led to a degradation of the captain’s own ability to effectively act as PM. Traveling at 60 kt. faster than recommended, the report says the aircraft could not capture the instrument landing system’s vertical plane, which is designed to help the crew with lateral guidance to touchdown. The BEA further notes the PF quickly rectified the horizontal trajectory, but that correction came to the detriment of the vertical trajectory. The aircraft found itself above the glideslope. The PM then improvised a procedure to catch the glideslope from above. However, that attempt to return to the nominal descent plane failed. The aircraft eventually made it to the targeted trajectory at an altitude of 1,500 ft. At that point, the workload had become too heavy for the crew, and they lost situational awareness, the BEA says. The aircraft’s energy was no longer clear to them. They did not hear an alarm about flap configuration. The pre-landing checklist was not implemented. The PM was no longer in his surveillance function, busy with other tasks related to flight management and change of strategy, the investigators say. The PF was focused on flying in turbulence and rain showers. The aircraft flew past the runway threshold at 30 kt. faster than the reference speed. Flap extension happened when the aircraft was already in ground-effect and the aerodynamic impact moved the landing point farther. The aircraft’s touchdown took place 3,300 ft. from the threshold. The crew did not factor in the announced 8 kt. of tailwind, and it unknowingly had to cope with an additional 23 kt., due to fast-changing conditions. Water was contaminating the runway’s surface, so braking was much less effective than expected. The aircraft went past the end of the runway at 80 kt. The operator conducted an internal investigation, and an immediate measure was recommended: simulator training to assess the pilots’ non-technical skills. Among others, competencies in cooperation and decision-making would have been evaluated, as well as the ability to follow procedures in a heavy workload, the BEA report says. That action was not carried out and the crew was dismissed. https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/safety-ops-regulation/bea-poor-crew-coordination-caused-amelia-erj145-orly-runway GAO report recommends FAA evaluate launch mishap investigation procedures WASHINGTON — The Government Accountability Office is recommending that the Federal Aviation Administration improve its process for investigating launch mishaps, one that currently relies heavily on launch providers. In a Dec. 7 report, the GAO recommended that the FAA’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation “comprehensively evaluate” its processes for investigating launch mishaps, including developing criteria for when those investigations should be led by the launch operator. The report, which examined commercial launch mishaps from 2000 to January 2023, noted that the FAA was the lead agency for investigating all but one of the 50 mishaps during that period. The exception was the October 2014 SpaceShipTwo fatal accident, where the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) led the investigation. The FAA says it decides on a case-by-case basis whether to conduct the mishap investigation itself or allow the launch operator to handle it with FAA oversight. In practice, all 49 investigations were operator-led. “FAA relies on the operator-led approach, agency officials told us, because, given highly specialized vehicle designs among companies, the agency does not have adequate resources for in-house investigations,” the GAO report stated. Those officials estimated that an agency-led investigation might take 10 to 20 times longer because the FAA lacks the “intimate knowledge of vehicle design” needed to effectively investigate mishaps. Both FAA and industry support operator-led reviews, which are guided by the FAA to varying degrees based on the nature of each mishap and the experience level of the launch operator. However, the GAO report stated that several unidentified industry stakeholders questioned the independence of company-led investigations as well as their ability to identify broader organization issues versus technical causes of mishaps. The GAO found that while the FAA says it decides individually who will lead a mishap investigation, it “has no specific criteria among its procedures for making those case-by-case determinations.” That is intended, the FAA argues, to give it flexibility, but the GAO noted that the FAA thus “cannot ensure consistency in its decisions.” The FAA also has not evaluated the effectiveness of operator-led investigations. “A changing operating environment also underscore FAA’s need to ensure that its mishap investigation process is effective,” the GAO stated, citing the growing number of commercial launches. Without such an evaluation, “FAA cannot be assured that its safety oversight is best achieving agency objectives in an area of critical importance.” In addition to mishap investigations, the GAO report addressed the ability to share lessons learned about mishaps among agencies and companies. There are no formal mechanism for doing so, the GAO found, but there are informal channels of communication. The FAA is also making another attempt at establishing a lessons-learned database for commercial space transportation after a previous effort at a voluntary system, more than a decade ago, failed because of a lack of industry participation. In a response to the GAO, Philip McNamara, assistant secretary for administration at the Department of Transportation, which includes the FAA, said the agency accepted the recommendations and would provide a detailed response within 180 days. The GAO report was requested by the leadership of the House Transportation Committee and its aviation subcommittee. Notably, House oversight of the FAA’s commercial space transportation office has typically been in the jurisdiction of the House Science Committee, not the House Transportation Committee. https://spacenews.com/gao-report-recommends-faa-evaluate-launch-mishap-investigation-procedures/ Jet stream will get faster as climate change continues, study finds A new study in Nature Climate Change takes one of the first deep dives into how climate change will affect the fastest jet streams—the powerful, narrow winds in the upper atmosphere that steer much of the Earth's weather systems and are connected to outbreaks of severe weather. The research, by UChicago Prof. Tiffany Shaw and National Center for Atmospheric Research scientist Osamu Miyawaki, suggests that as the world warms, the fastest upper-level jet stream winds will get faster and faster—by about 2% for every degree Celsius the world warms. Furthermore, the fastest winds will speed up 2.5 times faster than the average wind. "Based on these results and our current understanding, we expect record-breaking winds," said Shaw, "and it's likely that they will feed into decreased flight times, increased clear-air turbulence and a potential increase in severe weather occurrence." Wind, weather and warming Partly prompted by recent news reports of speed-record-breaking flights over the Atlantic, Shaw and Miyawaki began to investigate and realized there had been very little exploration of how the very fastest jet stream winds would respond to climate change. To fill this gap, they combined climate change models with what we know about the physics of jet streams. Jet streams usually move from west to east around the globe in the upper atmosphere, about six miles (10 kilometers) above us. We know that jet streams strongly influence the weather we experience on the ground—especially air temperature, winds and weather patterns, and storms. They also influence the occurrence of severe storms, tornadoes, hail and severe wind. Jet streams form because of the contrast between the cold, dense air at the poles and the warm, light air in the tropics, in combination with the rotation of the Earth. (This was first shown in the 1900s by pioneering UChicago meteorologists Carl-Gustaf Rossby and Dave Fultz.) Shaw and Miyawaki's analysis found that climate change intensifies this density contrast. As the air in the tropics warms further, it will hold much more moisture. While the air at the poles will also warm, hotter air can hold so much more moisture than cold air that the overall density difference only increases—and sharply. "The increase is multiplicative—about 2% per degree—rather than linear," said Shaw. "Thus, not only does it go up over time, the steeper the contrast you start with, the larger the increase you get—leading to fast winds getting faster." They ran tests with models of the Earth's climate, and found this fundamental physical explanation was very robust. "If you take away the ocean currents in the models, you still see this behavior. Same thing even if you remove all the land," Shaw said. "This combination of simulation and understanding is what justifies us telling policymakers to take this seriously." Downstream effects Though the findings are robust, more research will have to be done to predict exactly how these faster winds will impact individual storms and severe weather occurrence. While the current generation of global climate models represent the jet stream well, extreme events like severe weather events, which occur on smaller scales, are not included—making it harder to predict how they will change. New, more detailed climate models, which represent severe weather, are starting to come online and should help a fuller picture emerge. "It's really important for policymakers and communities to be able to plan for the future," she said. While faster trans-Atlantic flights might not seem so bad, the flip side is that planes are likely to experience more turbulence, Shaw said. The scientists said though record-high jet stream wind speeds have been observed in the past decades, the effect is not statistically significant yet. "We would expect the signal to emerge in the next few decades, if humans continue the path we're on with carbon emissions," Shaw said. "In the end, it's important to remember that we're in the driver's seat here." https://phys.org/news/2023-12-jet-stream-faster-climate.html CALENDAR OF EVENTS • 2024 Women in Aviation International Conference - March 21-23 (Orlando) • 2024 ACSF Safety Symposium – Air Charter Safety Foundation - April 1-3, 2024 • 2024 ISASI - Lisbon, Portugal - September 30 to October 4, 2024 • 2024 NBAA Business Aviation Convention & Exhibition - Oct. 22-24 (Vegas) Curt Lewis