Flight Safety Information - January 19, 2024 No. 015 In This Issue : Incident: Airlink E135 at Pemba on Jan 18th 2024, runway excursion on landing : Accident: Jetways F50 at Ceel Barde on Jan 18th 2024, impacted house : Accident: Ethiopian DH8D at Makale on Jan 18th 2024, gear problem and runway excursion : Incident: LATAM Brasil A320 near Salvador on Jan 16th 2024, captain incapacitated : American Airlines jet skids off taxiway during snowy weather : Atlas Air Boeing cargo plane makes emergency landing at Miami : Hands-on US aviation regulator flies into a new Boeing storm : JetBlue’s failed $3.8 billion merger could send Spirit Airlines into bankruptcy, Wall Street analysts warn : 1,120 Aircraft Ordered in India in The Last 12 Months : FAA Faces Tough Choice On Latest 737-7 Exemption Request : Airbus Forecasts Soaring Demand: India to require 2,840 aircraft and 41,000 pilots in next 2 decades : ISASI 2024 Call for Papers : CALENDAR OF EVENTS Incident: Airlink E135 at Pemba on Jan 18th 2024, runway excursion on landing An Airlink South Africa Embraer ERJ-135, registration ZS-SJX performing flight 4Z-204 from Johannesburg (South Africa) to Pemba (Mozambique) with 32 passengers and 3 crew, landed on Pemba's runway at about 14:09L (12:09Z) but overran the end of the runway and came to a stop with all gear on soft ground. There were no injuries and no damage to the aircraft. The aircraft is still on the ground in Pemba, the return flight was cancelled. The airline reported: Airlink regrets to confirm one of its aircraft was involved in a wet runway excursion upon landing at Pemba in Mozambique this afternoon. The Embraer 135 Regional Jet, registration ZS-SJX, operating as flight 4Z 204 from Johannesburg, had 32 passengers and three crew onboard. Everyone onboard disembarked from the aircraft through the main front entrance. At this time, there have been no reported injuries. Airlink and airport personnel at Pemba are taking care of the passengers and crew. Airlink has notified the relevant Mozambique and South African authorities. The airport operator has closed the runway, but as soon as it re-opens, we will dispatch a back-up aircraft to Pemba and a recovery team who will assist with retrieving the aircraft, which had aquaplaned off the runway. https://avherald.com/h?article=513d70e8&opt=0 Accident: Jetways F50 at Ceel Barde on Jan 18th 2024, impacted house A Jetways Airlines Fokker 50 freighter, registration 5Y-JWG performing a flight from Mogadishu to Ceel Barde (Somalia) with 4 crew carrying humanitarian aid from Mogadishu (Somalia), impacted a house near Ceel Barde Air Strip. The captain was killed, the first officer survived with serious injuries, the two other occupants survived "shocked and speechless". It is currently unknown whether there were occupants in the house. The aircraft sustained substantial damage, the house collapsed. Elbarde Airport confirmed the accident reporting the aircraft carried 4 UNO workers of the World Food Programme, the aircraft is thought to have impacted the house outside the airport during a go around attempt on approach to Elbarde Airport after one of the gear struts did not extend. There is no information available about the Elbarde airstrip/airport, the city Ceel Barde is located at N4.82 E43.7 and features an office of the "Action Contre la Faim/Action Against Hunger Somalia (AFC)" organisation. https://avherald.com/h?article=513d34dc&opt=0 Accident: Ethiopian DH8D at Makale on Jan 18th 2024, gear problem and runway excursion An Ethiopian Airlines de Havilland Dash 8-400, registration ET-AVS performing flight ET-106 from Addis Ababa to Makale (Ethiopia), landed on Makale's runway 11 but suffered a problem with the left main gear causing the aircraft to veer left of the runway and come to a stop on soft ground. There were no injuries, the aircraft sustained substantial damage as result of a left main gear collapse. https://avherald.com/h?article=513d3d26&opt=0 Incident: LATAM Brasil A320 near Salvador on Jan 16th 2024, captain incapacitated A LATAM Brasil Airbus A320-200, registration PR-MYW performing flight LA-3744 from Brasilia,DF to Joao Pessoa,PB (Brazil), was enroute at FL370 about to reach the top of descent into Joao Pessoa when the captain became incapacitated prompting the first officer to divert to Salvador,BA (Brasil) for a safe landing on runway 10 about 30 minutes later. The aircraft continued to Joao Pessoa after about 4 hours on the ground. https://avherald.com/h?article=513d6b57&opt=0 American Airlines jet skids off taxiway during snowy weather • None of the 53 souls on a regional jet at the Rochester International Airport when it slid off the taxiway on Thursday afternoon ROCHESTER, N.Y. – An American Airlines flight that was taxing off a runway at the Frederick Douglass - Greater Rochester International Airport slid into a grassy area during wintry weather Thursday afternoon, local airport officials said. The aircraft, operated by Piedmont Airlines, had 53 people on board and had just landed from Philadelphia when the incident occurred. Photos and videos from the scene showed emergency vehicles surrounding the jet, but no injuries were reported. At least one of the airport’s three runways was temporarily closed as crews responded to the plane. According to the airport’s weather observation site, light snow was falling at the time, which likely contributed to the incident. A spokesperson for American Airlines said once the aircraft is removed from the grassy region, it’ll be taken out of service and given a full inspection. Passengers and crew aboard the Embraer ERJ-145 were transported on a bus to the airport’s terminal. https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/impacts-of-snow-across-new-york Atlas Air Boeing cargo plane makes emergency landing at Miami • Atlas Air said that the crew of the aircraft had followed all standard procdures during the incident. MIAMI - An Atlas Air Boeing cargo plane was forced to make an emergency landing at Miami International Airport after experiencing an engine malfunction shortly after departure. "The crew followed all standard procedures and safely returned to MIA," Atlas Air said in a statement, adding that it would conduct an inspection to determine the cause of the incident which occurred late on Jan 18. Unverified videos on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, showed flames shooting out of the left wing of the aircraft while in flight. Reuters could not immediately verify the authenticity of the videos. The aircraft involved was a Boeing 747-8F, data from flight tracking website Flightaware showed. The aircraft is powered by four General Electric GEnx engines. Miami-Dade Fire Rescue responded and no injuries were reported, the airport told Reuters. Boeing, FAA and General Electric did not respond to Reuters requests for comment. Boeing has been engulfed in a crisis since an Alaska Airlines Boeing 737 Max 9 airliner made an emergency landing after part of its fuselage broke off shortly after take-off from Portland, Oregon, on Jan 5. The incident prompted the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to temporarily ground 171 aircraft for safety checks. https://www.straitstimes.com/world/atlas-air-boeing-cargo-plane-makes-emergency-landing-at-miami Hands-on US aviation regulator flies into a new Boeing storm • FAA head Mike Whitaker must also navigate air traffic control, safety and funding challenges • The FAA under administrator Mike Whitaker is looking at Boeing’s manufacturing practices and quality control procedures Mike Whitaker knows first hand how challenging flying can be. The head of the US’s aviation safety agency once damaged his Cessna after a bungled landing soon after gaining his private pilot’s licence. The incident took place in his first stint at the Federal Aviation Administration when he was the agency’s deputy head during Barack Obama’s presidency. No one was hurt but the FAA did investigate. “I was in the unusual position of being the number two guy at the FAA now being investigated by the FAA for not being a very good pilot,” Whitaker recalled during a 2019 interview on Aviation News Talk’s podcast. Whitaker had decided to get a pilot’s licence after he was appointed to the agency in 2013, hoping to understand its work and the air traffic control system better. “I needed to just not understand it at a theoretical level, but actually operate in the system,” he said. Whitaker, who returned to the FAA as its administrator last October, will need all that thoroughness to steer the agency through its current challenges. The aviation watchdog already had a long to-do list: a shortage of air traffic controllers has periodically crippled air traffic in the US, while safety concerns have increased after airline near misses. Precarious Congressional funding has hampered investment in infrastructure. On top of all this is the crisis at Boeing. The US plane maker is under pressure again after a section of a Boeing Max 737 9 aircraft blew out in mid-flight a fortnight ago. The FAA and the National Transportation Safety Board have launched separate investigations. The aviation regulator is looking at Boeing’s manufacturing practices and quality control procedures, including those of key supplier Spirit AeroSystems. The incident has again raised concerns over the FAA’s oversight of Boeing, which had come under fire after two crashes of Boeing’s Max 8 aircraft in 2018 and 2019 killed 346 people. Whitaker, who vowed in his confirmation speech that making aviation safe was “mission number one”, has a fine line to tread between being seen to be tough with Boeing and ensuring a proper investigative process. He is “facing a perfect storm right now”, said Alan Diehl, an aviation consultant who previously worked at the FAA and NTSB. “He’s got three challenges that he is dealing with: first, the Boeing bombshell, [then] the air traffic control problems, and the general loss in confidence in the government’s ability to maintain oversight of this industry.” Born in San Antonio, Texas, in 1961, Whitaker attended the University of Louisville, graduating with bachelor’s degrees in political science and French in 1984. He gained a doctoral degree from Georgetown University Law Centre in 1987 and started his career in aviation in the legal department of Trans World Airlines in 1991. “I have your typical random airline career,” Whitaker recalled in a 2021 podcast with Airlines Confidential about joining the now-defunct TWA. “That was a pretty chaotic time in the industry; Carl Icahn owned TWA at the time and it was about to go through its first of three bankruptcies.” He moved to United Airlines in 1994. Now in his early 30s, he rose rapidly through the ranks before becoming a senior vice-president, gaining a ringside seat at international negotiations on aviation issues. He added to his international experience by becoming group chief executive at India’s InterGlobe Enterprises, owner of the low-cost carrier IndiGo, in 2009. He left for the FAA in 2013, spending three years as its deputy head. Before rejoining the agency last year, Whitaker worked as chief operating officer at Supernal, Hyundai Motor Group’s nascent electric aircraft business. National Transportation Safety Board investigator John Lovell examines the fuselage of Alaska Airlines Flight 1282, a Boeing 737-9 Max, on January 7 in Portland, Oregon © NTSB via Getty Images People who have worked with him describe him as knowledgeable, very detailed but also personable. “He’s very focused on people and knows how to build consensus among different stakeholders,” said one industry executive. Before he rejoined, the FAA had not had a permanent leader since Donald Trump’s appointee, Stephen Dickson, stepped down in 2022. Industry stakeholders said Whitaker’s unanimous confirmation to the role should stand him in good stead. The 98-0 confirmation was a “mandate from Congress that is extremely rare in these political times in the US”, said Sara Nelson, president of the Association of Flight Attendants-CWA. While the Boeing crisis has his immediate attention, Whitaker cannot lose sight of the FAA’s broader challenges, notably rebuilding the public’s confidence in air travel that was undermined by flight delays, cancellations and near misses. An FAA-commissioned report into air traffic safety, published in November, found there had been an increase in the most serious type of runway incidents, and air traffic control systems suffered from “inadequate funding” in staffing, equipment, technology and facilities. Whitaker must also navigate the fight with Congress over the FAA reauthorisation bill which, said Nelson, would “allow him to staff up”, noting that agency inspectors are “drastically needed in a situation like [the Boeing incident]”. Nelson credits Whitaker for acting swiftly with regards to Boeing, saying “he is in my view taking very pointed action with Boeing that simply did not exist before”. “There were a lot of people concerned he was too close to the industry but he is proving to be very open and solicitous to all stakeholders,” she added. https://www.ft.com/content/491980d5-12b1-428e-a356-7c2f626a04c9 JetBlue’s failed $3.8 billion merger could send Spirit Airlines into bankruptcy, Wall Street analysts warn What's next for Spirit Airlines, now that it won't be merging with JetBlue? Some Wall Street analysts are starting to raise the possibility of bankruptcy. Spirit Airlines hasn’t made money since before the pandemic, ticket sales haven’t bounced back as quickly as the carrier expected, and dozens of its planes will be grounded at times this year because of a problem with the engines. A sale to JetBlue represented a lifeline for Spirit, which faces $1.1 billion in debt maturing next year. But a federal judge in Boston scuttled that plan by ruling Tuesday that JetBlue’s $3.8 billion proposal to buy Spirit violates antitrust law. Now, some Wall Streeters who follow Spirit are tossing around the B word – bankruptcy. The judge had even hinted at such an outcome during the trial. After Judge William Young’s ruling on Tuesday, Spirit can look for another buyer, or it could remain independent and try to push through a difficult environment for budget airlines. But “a more likely scenario is a Chapter 11 filing, followed by a liquidation,” wrote Helane Becker, a veteran airline analyst for financial-services firm Cowen. “We recognize this sounds alarmist and harsh, but the reality is we believe there are limited scenarios that enable Spirit to restructure.” JPMorgan analyst Jamie Baker wasn’t willing to go quite that far, but he too drew a grim picture for Spirit, which has the ticker symbol “SAVE.” “We are not (yet) predicting an immediate SAVE chapter 11 filing, just an acknowledgement that we cannot reasonably identify a viable return to profitability any time soon,” Baker and colleagues wrote in a note to clients. Baker noted that Spirit recently raised $419 million by mortgaging many of its planes. But, he added, “from here its liquidity-raising cupboard does not appear robust.” Fitch Ratings said Spirit’s credit profile is now “under pressure” after the court defeat. “We believe that Spirit needs to clearly articulate a near-term plan to preserve and generate liquidity, address its refinancing risk, and improve profitability to avoid” a rating downgrade, the credit-rating agency said. Spirit did not respond directly to those comments. A spokesperson for the airline pointed to a regulatory filing two weeks ago, in which the airline disclosed that it had raised $419 million through sale-and-leaseback agreements covering 25 planes. In a joint statement Tuesday, Spirit and JetBlue said they disagreed with the ruling that blocks their merger and were considering their next legal step. Judge Young stopped short of granting the government’s wish for a permanent injunction against any merger between JetBlue and Spirit. During the trial, Young was troubled that such a sweeping order would be too restrictive in the ever-changing airline business. “We are not going to get anywhere if you win, the merger isn’t approved, and Spirit goes belly-up,” the judge said to a Justice Department lawyer during closing arguments in December. Spirit, based in Miramar, Florida, last turned a full-year profit in 2019. It has lost more than $1.6 billion since then. On Wednesday, Bank of America analysts downgraded Spirit stock to “underperform,” suggesting there is a risk the airline might not be able to make debt payments due in September 2025. Spirit is also hindered by necessary inspections and possible replacement of Pratt & Whitney engines on many of its Airbus jets because of a manufacturing defect. The airline has predicted that it will average 26 grounded planes — more than 10% of its fleet — during 2024, causing “a dramatic decrease in the company’s near-term growth projections.” Frontier Airlines tried to buy Spirit before JetBlue started – and won – a bidding war last year. But Frontier has its own challenges and is in no position to renew merger discussions with Spirit now, Baker said. Spirit shares fell 22% Wednesday after plunging 47% on Tuesday. JetBlue shares lost a more modest 9% on Wednesday, which might reflect investors breathing a sigh of relief that the purchase of Spirit appears dead, at least for now. Baker said “JetBlue dodges a bullet” because of the federal judge’s ruling. Under CEO Robin Hayes – who is stepping down next month – JetBlue wanted the planes and pilots that it would have gained through buying Spirit, but “the price was simply just too much to pay,” in Baker’s view. Like Spirit, JetBlue has not had a profitable year since 2019, before the pandemic. But relative to its size, JetBlue’s losses are more manageable than Spirit’s, and it has a stronger balance sheet, according to analysts. Investors are also trying to gauge what the ruling against the JetBlue-Spirit deal means for Alaska Airlines’ pending proposal to buy Hawaiian Airlines. The Biden administration hasn’t said whether it will sue to block that deal too. Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Linenberg said the government’s success in blocking both the JetBlue-Spirit deal and a previous partnership between JetBlue and American Airlines “are likely to cast a shadow over future airline (merger and acquisition) activity, with the Alaska–Hawaiian deal potentially in the sights of regulators.” https://fortune.com/2024/01/18/will-spirit-airlines-go-bankrupt-chapter-11-jetblue-merger/ 1,120 Aircraft Ordered in India in The Last 12 Months Following the blockbuster order from Akasa Air yesterday for 150 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, this means that a staggering 1,120 aircraft have been ordered in India in the last 12 months. Such a figure spans across orders made by IndiGo, Air India and now Akasa Air once again, with the recent order being an addition to the 72 initially ordered when they announced intentions to start operations. As per the Deccan Herald, the Akasa Air order from yesterday now means that 1,120 aircraft have been ordered for India-based carriers in the last 12 months. Airlines in the country have been extremely busy setting up their expansion plans for the years ahead. The first of the three orders came from Air India back in February 2023, when Air India placed an incredible firm order for up to 470 aircraft. This consisted of the following at the time: 140 Airbus A320neos. 70 A321neos 34 A350-1000s. 6 A350-900s (Now changed since to a 50/50 split between the -900 & -1000). 190 Boeing 737 MAXs. 20 787-9 Dreamliners. 10 777Xs. A few months after that, during the Paris Air Show, IndiGo decided to take things one step further, with an order for 500 Airbus A320 Family aircraft. This order, including their existing backlog from previous orders total 1,330 Airbus A320 family aircraft that IndiGo has agreed with the European manufacturer. Finally, you have the Akasa Air order from yesterday for 150 737 MAX aircraft from Boeing. One thing to note with the Air India order is that they also have purchase rights for another 370 aircraft on top of the 470 firm, so in retrospect, the figure could be higher than 1,120 if all of them are exercising, resulting in a grand total of 1,490 jets. One thing is clear: Aviation in the country is growing at a very fast rate, and these airlines will form a major foundation in facilitating that. https://aviationsourcenews.com/airline/1120-aircraft-ordered-in-india-in-the-last-12-months/ FAA Faces Tough Choice On Latest 737-7 Exemption Request • Without an exemption, 737-7 certification could be pushed into 2026. Boeing’s marathon-like push to earn approval for its 737-7 likely no longer hinges on demonstrating that the model meets all required regulatory standards but instead on convincing the agency that a known noncompliance should be permitted for a few years while the OEM develops a permanent fix. At issue is 737 MAX engine inlet durability. Boeing in mid-2023 discovered that operating the aircraft’s engine anti-ice (EAI) system in certain conditions could cause the composite inlets to heat to the point at which they were at risk of breaking apart under operational loads. The failure’s potential ramifications—shedding pieces of engine inlet and nacelle assembly—are enough to “jeopardize the safe operation of the airplane,” in the FAA’s words. Add it up, and the 737 MAX EAI/composite inlet combination fails to comply with parts of six regulations. Boeing wants the FAA to certify the 737-7 with a known engine nacelle risk The issue requires a work-around on in-service 737 MAXs The scenario spotlights increased reliance on exemptions The FAA in August 2023 ordered a temporary operational work-around for in-service 737 MAXs. The “direct final” airworthiness directive (AD)—signifying the agency deemed it important enough to bypass inviting public input on a draft—required operators to modify flight manuals with language prohibiting pilots from using the EAI “when not in actual or anticipated icing conditions.” Operating the EAI in dry air and at certain altitudes and thrust settings for more than 5 min. could cause nacelle damage, the agency explained. Among the worst-case scenarios, shedding of inlet pieces “may cause fuselage and/or window damage, potentially resulting in decompression and hazard to window-seated passengers aft of the wing,” the FAA noted. A similar scenario led to a passenger fatality onboard a Southwest Airlines 737-700 in April 2018 when parts of the nacelle broke apart following a fan blade failure. That helped jump-start a review of airframe and engine certification rules (AW&ST March 22-April 4, 2021, p. 24), leading Boeing to redesign its 737 Next Generation (NG) nacelles. A fleet-wide retrofit is to be completed by the end of the decade. The FAA rule noted that Boeing, which designs and manufactures the 737 MAX inlets, is working on a modification that will eliminate the hazard. The rule addressed the problem for the in-service fleet. In late November, Boeing asked the FAA for 18 months to wrap up design and certification of the modification. In the meantime, it wants the agency to grant an exemption so the 737-7—which first flew in March 2018 and completed formal FAA flight testing in late 2021 (AW&ST April 18-May 1, 2022, p. 14)—can be certified and enter service with the same hazard and operational work-around as the 737-8, 737-8200 and 737-9. “Subsequent to the development of the engine nacelle inlet structure and EAI system, analysis and engineering flight testing showed there is a potential for structural damage to the engine nacelle inlet structure due to overheating with the EAI system active during specific operational and environmental conditions,” Boeing explains in its request for a time-limited exemption (TLE) until May 31, 2026. “During this time, Boeing will complete certification of necessary design changes for the EAI system and associated structure. These changes will be applied to all 737 MAX models, including the 737-7.” Neither the rule nor Boeing’s exemption request explain why problems with the composite inlets, added as part of the 737 MAX derivative changes, were not flagged during certification. Both underscore that the hazard has never led to an in-service incident, and the risk of one occurring is low. “The 737 MAX has been in service since 2017 and has accumulated over 6.5 million flight hours,” Boeing writes in its exemption request. “In that time, there have been no reported cases of parts departing aircraft . . . due to overheating of the engine nacelle inlet structure, indicating that a TLE [from two of the six regulations at issue] will have no adverse affect on safety.” The other four rules the design fails to meet deal with “multiple, independent system failures during specific operational and environmental conditions,” the company said. “Boeing’s quantitative risk assessment evaluated this scenario to be extremely improbable and to have no adverse effect on safety.” Both the 737-7 and the 737-10, the last two variants of the 737 MAX family, have multiple TLEs that will allow Boeing to develop changes after each model is certified. Several of them stem from lessons learned in the aftermath of the two 737-8 fatal accidents in 2018 and 2019, which prompted the OEM and regulators to reevaluate elements of the baseline 737 MAX design and how it was approved. But the composite nacelle issue and an unrelated yaw damper software problem (AW&ST July 17-30, 2023, p. 18) were regulatory noncompliances all along that went undetected by Boeing and the FAA during the baseline 737-8’s certification. The nacelle issue stands out as an identified unsafe condition in the in-service fleet that required immediate attention with pilot manual changes and anti-icing limitations. This technical wrinkle, combined with a mounting list of unrelated but relevant organizational problems within Boeing’s Commercial Airplanes division (AW&ST Oct. 30-Nov. 12, 2023, p. 25), is causing some within the FAA to question whether granting the OEM’s request is prudent. One FAA manager involved in evaluating the request who has signed off on other 737 MAX exemptions opposes the latest one, sources with knowledge of the issue tell Aviation Week. While one technical expert’s opposition is not enough to deny an exemption request, the EAI hazard’s potential consequences—remote but documented in an AD as meeting the agency’s “catastrophic” probability threshold—are generating additional scrutiny. “How in the world could we justify granting an exemption on something like this that we know could have catastrophic consequences?” asks one agency safety expert not directly involved in the exemption’s review. Beyond the documented issue of granting a temporary pass to a known safety-of-flight issue, comments compiled by a coalition of industry veterans, including former Boeing engineers, FAA experts and several experienced pilots, poke holes in the petition. The hazard is not linked to multiple problems but rather a single failure—specifically, pilots forgetting to abide by the new EAI restrictions—the Foundation for Aviation Safety (FAS) argues in formal comments to the FAA on Boeing’s petition. “Compliance with” Part 25.901(c), which prohibits single failures from causing accidents and is one of the six regulations at issue, “requires the failure is assumed to have happened, and [that] a fail-safe feature will prevent an accident,” the FAS states. “Clearly, the flight crew forgetting to turn off the anti-ice system is a foreseeable single failure,” it continues, noting that the 737’s lack of a modern flight crew alerting system thanks to other regulatory exceptions granted years ago only adds to the probability of pilots not realizing the system is on when it should not be. “The probability of single failures is assumed to be one,” the FAS states. “Boeing is petitioning to allow the use of a probability analysis to circumvent the fail-safe requirements, which are the foundation of the aviation industry.” The FAS also says Boeing’s claim that adding nonconforming 737-7s to the in-service fleet will have “no adverse effect on safety” runs counter to the FAA’s justification for the August 2023 directive. “Clearly, the configuration Boeing is petitioning to be approved does not provide equivalent safety to the regulations from which they are seeking an exemption, and there is an adverse effect on safety, or the FAA would not mandate a design change as terminating action for the interim limitation and procedure mandated by the AD,” the FAS writes. The foundation also notes that the 737 MAX’s operating history without an inlet failure linked to EAI operation offers little proof that the fleet is safe. “Catastrophic accidents have occurred many times after a fleet of aircraft has accrued millions of flight hours,” the FAS says, pointing to the 2019 Southwest accident as a recent example. “Since the flight crew does not get a warning that crew action is required, the flight crew inadvertently leaving the anti-ice system on for 5 min. is a likely outcome.” The FAS’ objections go beyond the 737 MAX. The prevalence of exemptions during aircraft certification programs and following major rule changes is another key concern. Manufacturers’ confidence in exemptions—which have become commonplace in the last two decades—means they do not have to abide by certification rules meant to ensure designs are safe, the foundation argues. Once granted, exemptions can too easily be extended, taking pressure off of companies to fix the problem. 767-300F An exemption means 767-300Fs do not meet all FAA flammability reduction rules. One example is the 767-300F’s compliance with new flammability reduction rules put in place following the 1996 inflight explosion of TWA Flight 800 (AW&ST Nov. 21, 2005, p. 46). In 2012, Boeing asked the FAA to exempt 767s from new wiring separation rules meant to prevent ignition sources. While design improvements were incorporated, they fell short of the FAA’s newest rules introduced in 2008. Among Boeing’s justifications: The required changes to the fuel quantity indication system would require the company to pause deliveries for three years while production for the model was nearing its end. The FAA gave Boeing three years to develop a compliant system and said deliveries could continue in the interim. In 2014, with no new design in sight, Boeing asked for a new TLE—this time for just the 767-300 and 767-300ER and only until 2019, when 767 commercial production was expected to cease. Meanwhile, Boeing designed the tanker variant, which became the KC-46, to be fully compliant. The FAA granted Boeing’s request. But in 2017, with the 767-300F still selling, Boeing asked for another exemption—this time pegging Dec. 31, 2027, well past the widebody freighter’s revised production end date. Annual deliveries were forecast at “about” 11 per year, the OEM added, equivalent to a final batch of about 90 aircraft. One FAA senior aviation safety engineer had seen enough. Mike Dostert, one of the experts tasked with evaluating Boeing’s request, voiced his opposition. When the agency decided to grant the petition anyway, Dostert, as an engineer represented by the National Air Traffic Controllers Association, followed union protocol and documented his point of view. “Co-routing of high-power wiring and lack of separation in [parts of the fuel system] between the high-power and in-tank circuits has been identified as a noncompliant and an unsafe condition since the TWA 800 accident,” Dostert, now retired from the FAA and a member of the FAS advisory board, wrote in a June 2018 “difference in professional opinion” letter. He also questioned whether the company ever intended to fix the problem. “After three years of production of noncompliant airplanes under the provisions of the original exemption, Boeing requested extension of the original exemption from 2016 to 2019 based upon the cost of upgrading the design and their stated low production rate and end of production in 2019,” he wrote. “It should be noted that in that same time frame Boeing developed the 767 tanker airplanes . . . produced on the same production line [that] are fully compliant.” Dostert said Boeing’s FAA-granted Organization Designation Authorization status requires it to “correct noncompliant design features in newly produced airplanes.” Granting the 2018 exemption “not only reduces the level of fuel tank safety of the newly produced 767-300F airplanes, it rewards Boeing for not producing compliant designs and likely will influence their actions regarding bringing other known noncompliant designs back into a compliant configuration.” Since the 2019 exemption went into effect, Boeing has upped annual 767-300F production to satisfy demand. It delivered 94 of the freighters in 2019-23—nearly 19 per year. Counting another 27 in the backlog as of Dec. 31, Boeing is on pace to deliver 121 under the 2019 exemption—or about two more years’ worth of production than it anticipated in the rates and time frame detailed in its application. https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/safety-ops-regulation/faa-faces-tough-choice-latest-737-7-exemption-request Airbus Forecasts Soaring Demand: India to require 2,840 aircraft and 41,000 pilots in next 2 decades Airbus is optimistic about the future of Indian aviation, projecting a robust demand for 2,840 new aircraft and a need for 41,000 pilots alongside 47,000 technical staff in the next 20 years. He anticipates India's aviation market to be a driving force globally, with an estimated investment of $12 billion for new airports and renovations, expanding the current 150 to approximately 200 airports within five years. Maillard underscored India's pivotal role in Airbus's operations, revealing plans to double the company's sourcing from India to $1.5 billion by the end of the decade, up from the existing $750 million. The President and Managing Director expressed confidence in India's economic growth, projecting it to be the world's fastest-growing aviation market, fuelled by a 6.2 per cent annual growth rate. Last year, Airbus secured a record order of 750 aircraft, with 75 units already delivered to Indian carriers, including Indigo, Air India, Vistara, and Go First. To meet the evolving needs of India's aviation sector, Airbus commits to enhancing its manufacturing presence in the country. The company, in collaboration with Air India, is set to expand its joint venture training centre in Gurugram. Equipped with 10 simulators, the centre aims to train 5,000 pilots over the next decade. Earlier collaborations, such as the deal with Tata Advanced Systems Limited (TASL) in 2021 to manufacture C-295 transport aircraft for the Indian Air Force, showcase Airbus's commitment to strengthening its ties with India. The agreement includes delivering the initial 16 aircraft from Spain and subsequent manufacturing in India through an industrial partnership with TASL. Maillard highlighted the transformative role of the A350 aircraft in revolutionizing international travel in India. Six of these planes were delivered to Air India in the previous year, symbolising a significant step in the country's aviation landscape. The Airbus executive anticipates sustained economic growth for India over the next two decades, supporting the need for extensive aircraft, skilled pilots, and technical staff. https://www.wionews.com/business-economy/airbus-forecasts-soaring-demand-india-to-require-2840-aircraft-and-41000-pilots-in-next-2-decades-681524 ISASI 2024 Call for Papers It is with great pleasure that the organising committee invites expressions of interest to present a paper at the ISASI 2024 seminar which will be held at the Marriott Hotel, Lisbon from 1 to 3 October 2024. Tutorial’s and the MASI meeting will take place on Wednesday 30 September 2024. Further details for the Call for Papers are available here: ISASI 2024 (esasi.eu) Further information on the tutorials, main programme, registration, and accommodation options will be provided in due course. We look forward to seeing you at ISASI 2024. CALENDAR OF EVENTS • SINGAPORE AIRSHOW 2024 - February 20 - 25 • HAI Heli-Expo 2024 - February 26 - 29 - Anaheim, CA • 2024 Women in Aviation International Conference - March 21-23 (Orlando) • SMU Air Law Symposium - March 21-22, 2024 ( Dallas, TX) • 2024 ACSF Safety Symposium – Air Charter Safety Foundation - April 1-3, 2024 • Airborne Public Safety Association, Inc. (APSCON 2024) - July 29 - August 3; Houston TX • Asia Pacific Airline Training Symposium - APATS 2024, 0-11 September, 2024, Singapore • • 2024 ISASI - Lisbon, Portugal - September 30 to October 4, 2024 • 2024 NBAA Business Aviation Convention & Exhibition - Oct. 22-24 (Vegas) Curt Lewis