Flight Safety Information - January 29, 2024 No. 021 In This Issue : Incident: Firefly B738 at Singapore on Jan 27th 2024, flaps problems : Accident: American A21N at Kahului on Jan 27th 2024, hard landing causes injuries : Incident: Virgin Atlantic B789 at London on Jan 27th 2024, RAM Air Turbine extended : Incident: American A321 near Minneapolis on Jan 25th 2024, engine stall enroute : Beechcraft C99 Commuter - Accident on Takeoff (New Hampshire) : Seven killed in Brazil after Piper plane breaks up midflight and crashes : A roaring tailwind just hurled a passenger plane at 826 miles per hour : EASA Partners with IATA to Counter Safety Threat from GNSS Spoofing & Jamming : Aeromexico Passenger Arrested After Opening Aircraft Door And Walking On Wing In Mexico City : United Airlines flight headed to Dulles diverted to Denver due to cracked windshield : US airlines expect April solar eclipse to be the biggest travel event in history : Aircraft supply shortage set to continue in 2024 : Airbus Wants To Buy Back Aircraft Slots And Sell Them To United Airlines : Why Airliners Avoid Storms Despite Being Designed To Withstand Them : ACSF Annual Safety Symposium : CALENDAR OF EVENTS Incident: Firefly B738 at Singapore on Jan 27th 2024, flaps problems A Firefly Boeing 737-800, registration 9M-MLH performing flight FY-3663 from Singapore (Singapore) to Penang (Malaysia), was climbing out of Singapore's runway 02C when the crew stopped the climb at FL100 reporting problems with the flaps. The aircraft entered a hold at low speed to return to Singapore and landed safely on runway 02C at a higher than normal speed (about 180 knots over ground) about 40 minutes after departure. A replacement Boeing 737-800 registration 9M-MLJ reached Penang with a delay of about 8.5 hours. The occurrence aircraft remained on the ground in Singapore for about 39 hours before returning to Penang. https://avherald.com/h?article=5143f888&opt=0 Accident: American A21N at Kahului on Jan 27th 2024, hard landing causes injuries An American Airlines Airbus A321-200N, registration N416AN performing flight AA-271 from Los Angeles,CA to Kahului,HI (USA), landed on Kahului's runway 20 but touched down hard at about 14:05L (00:05Z Jan 28th). The aircraft rolled out without further incident, vacated the runway and stopped on the parallel taxiway. 5 cabin crew and one passenger received injuries and were taken to a local hospital. The FAA reported: "American Airlines Flight 271, an Airbus A320, made a hard landing on Runway 20 at Kahului Airport in Hawaii at approximately 2 p.m. local time. Contact the airline for passenger information. The FAA will investigate." Maui Police Department reported 6 individuals were taken to a hospital in stable condition. The airline reported 5 cabin crew and one passenger were taken to a hospital and were released after the aircraft encountered an "issue" on landing in Kahului. https://avherald.com/h?article=5143e333&opt=0 Incident: Virgin Atlantic B789 at London on Jan 27th 2024, RAM Air Turbine extended A Virgin Atlantic Boeing 787-9, registration G-VZIG performing flight VS-105 from London Heathrow,EN (UK) to Seattle,WA (USA), was climbing out of London's runway 09R when the crew stopped the climb at about FL230 and decided to return to Heathrow. The aircraft dumped fuel at FL230 and returned to Heathrow with the RAM Air Turbine extended and operating. The aircraft landed safely on runway 09L about one hour after departure. A replacement Boeing 787-9 registration G-VOOH reached Seattle with a delay of about 4.5 hours. The occurrence aircraft is still on the ground in London about 21 hours after landing back. https://avherald.com/h?article=5143b671&opt=0 Incident: American A321 near Minneapolis on Jan 25th 2024, engine stall enroute An American Airlines Airbus A321-200, registration N153UW performing flight AA-1849 from Charlotte,NC to Portland,OR (USA), was enroute at FL320 about 170nm south of Minneapolis when the crew declared emergency reporting their #1 engine (CFM56, left hand) had stalled, they were drifting down to FL240. The crew advised after working checklists that they could not recover the engine. The aircraft subsequently diverted to Minneapolis,MN (USA) for a safe landing on runway 12R about 45 minutes after leaving FL320. A replacement A321-200 registration N994AN reached Portland with a delay of about 13 hours. The occurrence aircraft is still on the ground in Minneapolis about 19 hours after landing. https://avherald.com/h?article=5142aaab&opt=0 Beechcraft C99 Commuter - Accident on Takeoff (New Hampshire) Date: Friday 26 January 2024 Time: c. 07:17 LT Type: Beechcraft C99 Commuter Owner/operator: Ameriflight opf Wiggins Airways Registration: N53RP MSN: U-195 Year of manufacture: 1982 Engine model: Pratt & Whitney Canada PT6A-60A Fatalities: Fatalities: 0 / Occupants: 1 Aircraft damage: Destroyed Category: Accident Location: Londonderry, NH - United States of America Phase: Manoeuvring (airshow, firefighting, ag.ops.) Nature: Cargo Departure airport: Manchester-Boston Regional Airport, NH (MHT/KMHT) Destination airport: Presque Isle International Airport, ME (PQI/KPQI) Investigating agency: NTSB Confidence Rating: Information is only available from news, social media or unofficial sources Narrative: An Ameriflight Beechcraft C99 Commuter (freighter conversion), performing Wiggins Airways flight WIG1046, impacted trees and terrain 70 feet from a single-family home on Colonial Drive in Londonderry, New Hampshire. The sole pilot suffered serious injuries and the aircraft was destroyed. The aircraft took off from runway 06 at Manchester-Boston Regional Airport (MHT/KHMT),New Hampshire, at 07:10 LT. ADS-B data show that the aircraft began to follow an erratic course a few minutes after takeoff with varying altitude and speed. The accident occurred 17 minutes after takeoff. https://www.aviation-safety.net/wikibase/351173 Seven killed in Brazil after Piper plane breaks up midflight and crashes Brazil plane crash Piper aircraft Seven people have been confirmed dead in Brazil after a Piper aircraft crashed in Itapeva, in the southern part of Minas Gerais. According to local reports the Piper PA-46-350P Malibu Mirage single-engine plane broke up midflight after it left Campo dos Amarais Airport (CPQ). The Minas Gerais Fire Department said that the crash occurred on January 28, 2024, at around 10:30am local time while the plane was flying to Belo Horizonte. Brazilian news outlet OGlobo reported that those killed included the pilot and co-pilot, two businessmen and their wives, and a two-year-old son of one of the passengers. The two men are understood to have worked for the payroll credit operator Credfranco. Credfranco issued a statement on social media following the incident. “It is with great sadness and consternation that Credfranco announces the death of our esteemed businesspeople […] In this moment of mourning we express our most sincere condolences and solidarity to family, friends and everyone who shares with us this moment of sadness and reflection,” the company wrote. Minas Gerais Civil Police coroner Tatiana Teles said that the plane broke up into three large sections and came to rest on its roof. Firefighters had to turn the aircraft over to remove all bodies from the plane wreckage. The Aeronautical Accidents Investigation and Prevention Center in Brazil are investigating the incident. Local reports suggested that weather conditions in the area at the time of the crash were unfavorable. https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/seven-killed-brazil-plane-crash-piper A roaring tailwind just hurled a passenger plane at 826 miles per hour An exceptional jet stream boosted a China Airlines flight over the Pacific China Airlines Flight 5116 rocketed to a speed of 826 mph as it bolted eastward across the Pacific Ocean on Thursday, potentially breaking informal records for passenger travel. The commercial flight, which departed from Taipei, landed more than an hour early in Los Angeles, propelled by exceptionally strong tailwinds. Want to know how your actions can help make a difference for our planet? Sign up for the Climate Coach newsletter, in your inbox every Tuesday and Thursday. A roaring Pacific jet stream, supercharged by the El Niño climate pattern and moving at more than 250 mph, gave the flight a boost. Official records for commercial flight speeds aren’t kept, but a recent article in Simple Flying said a British Air Boeing 747 flying near Greenland had set a record when it reached 825 mph in February 2020. Other flights were also hurled by this week’s extra-swift high-altitude winds. For example, China Airlines Flight 6, flying the same route as Flight 5116 on Friday, hit 822 mph. The jet stream winds even enabled these planes to surpass the speed of sound (767 mph). China Airlines 5116, a Boeing 777, has a cruising speed of 564 mph, but the jet stream bumped it up over 800 mph — much like walking on a moving walkway adds to a pedestrian’s speed. But the aircraft did not break the sound barrier. Even though its ground speed was greater than the speed of sound, it was still moving through the surrounding air at its ordinary cruise speed. It just so happened that the surrounding air was also moving. China Airlines 5116 flew its route of 7,205 miles in just 10 hours 18 minutes, which rounds to an average speed of 700 mph! That’s including takeoff, landing and all the slower points in the journey. (Working against the jet stream, an average westbound flight from Los Angeles to Taipei is usually scheduled for 14 hours 40 minutes.) There were more super fast flights Thursday and Friday. Among them: Philippine Airlines 112 from Manila to Los Angeles reached 819 mph. Delta 276 from Tokyo to Detroit reached 817 mph. Delta Flight 26 from Seoul to Atlanta reached 814 mph. China Airlines 5382 from Taipei to Los Angeles reached 812 mph. What made the jet stream so fast? Ordinarily it has crests and dips, which limit just how fast its flow can get. Picture a kinked hose — even if water is flowing through it, it slows until you stretch it straight. Then fluid flows through the hose swiftly. Same premise here. The jet stream is usually faster in the wintertime, and the world’s fastest jet stream tends to be over the Pacific. It’s easy for the river of furious winds to roar eastward without any land masses or topography (mountains, etc.) slowing it due to friction. In addition, jet streams are fueled by temperature contrasts. Because the tropical Pacific Ocean is warmer than normal because of the El Niño climate pattern, there is a stronger temperature difference between southern and northern reaches of the ocean in the northern hemisphere, intensifying the jet stream in between. The same active Pacific jet stream will bring storm systems to California and the Pacific Northwest. Back-to-back atmospheric rivers will deluge the region, causing heavy mountain snows and rain in the lowlands. Planes can reach similar speeds over the North Atlantic given the right conditions. On Feb. 7, 2020, a KLM flight reached a ground speed of 819 mph over Newfoundland. It was a Boeing 747; the pilot snapped a photo of his instrument panel and reached out to The Washington Post after the flight. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/01/26/airplane-flight-record-speed-pacific-jetstream/ EASA Partners with IATA to Counter Safety Threat from GNSS Spoofing & Jamming Cologne – The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) and the International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced the conclusions of a workshop jointly hosted at EASA’s headquarters to combat incidents of GNSS spoofing and jamming. The workshop’s high-level conclusion was that interference with satellite-based services that provide information on the precise position of an aircraft can pose significant challenges to aviation safety. Mitigating these risks requires short-, medium- and long-term measures, beginning with the sharing of incident information and remedies. “GNSS systems offer tremendous advantages to aviation in increasing the safety of operations in a busy shared airspace,” said EASA Acting Executive Director Luc Tytgat. “But we have seen a sharp rise in attacks on these systems, which poses a safety risk. EASA is tackling the risk specific to these new technologies. We immediately need to ensure that pilots and crews can identify the risks and know how to react and land safely. In the medium term, we will need to adapt the certification requirements of the navigation and landing systems. For the longer term, we need to ensure we are involved in the design of future satellite navigation systems. Countering this risk is a priority for the Agency.” “Airlines are seeing a significant rise in incidents of GNSS interference. To counter this, we need coordinated collection and sharing of GNSS safety data; universal procedural GNSS incident guidance from aircraft manufacturers; a commitment from states to retain traditional navigation systems as backup in cases where GNSS are spoofed or jammed. In actioning these items, the support and resources of EASA and other governmental authorities are essential. And airlines will be critical partners. And whatever actions are taken, they must be the focal point of the solution as they are the front line facing the risk,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. Measures agreed by the workshop to make Positioning, Navigation and Timing (PNT) services provided by GNSS more resilient, include: Reporting and sharing of GNSS interference event data In Europe, this would occur through the European Occurrence Reporting scheme and EASA’s Data4Safety programme. As this is a global problem, it is important, for a better and complete understanding, to join all the information available from reports by connecting the databases such as IATA’s Flight Data Exchange (FDX), or EUROCONTROL’s EVAIR. This topic will be included in the discussions among all interested stakeholders, which will be launched following this workshop. Guidance from aircraft manufacturers This will ensure that aircraft operators are well equipped to manage jamming and spoofing situations, in alignment with EASA’s Safety Information Bulletin (SIB 2022-02 R2). Alerting EASA will inform the relevant stakeholders (airlines, air navigation service providers (ANSPs), manufacturing industry and airports) about attacks. Backup Aviation must retain a Minimum Operational Network (MON) of traditional navigation aids to ensure that there is a conventional backup for GNSS navigation. Background on ‘spoofing’ and ‘jamming’ In very recent years, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) jamming and spoofing incidents have increasingly threatened the integrity of Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) services across Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Similar incidents have been reported in other locations globally. GNSS is a service based on satellite constellations such as the US Global Positioning System (GPS) and EU’s Galileo. ‘Jamming’ blocks a signal, whereas ‘spoofing’ sends false information to the receiver on board the aircraft. These disruptions pose significant challenges to the broader spectrum of industries which rely on precise geolocation services, including aviation. Such attacks belong to the domain of Cybersecurity, safety threat for which EASA has developed a toolkit. The National Aviation Authorities (NAAs) in Europe had explicitly tasked EASA with taking measures to counter this risk. About the workshop Participants in the workshop shared information on actual events experienced, to deepen the collective understanding of the perceived threat. There was wide appreciation from the attendees for the event and a shared understanding of the need to tackle this issue collectively in a timely fashion. Over 120 participants from airlines, manufacturers, system suppliers, ANSPs and institutions joined the in-person event, which was held in Cologne on January 25, 2024. For more information, please contact: Janet Northcote Head of Communications Email: communications@easa.europa.eu IATA Corporate Communications Tel: +41 22 770 2967 Email: corpcomms@iata.org About European Union Aviation Safety Agency - EASA The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) is the centrepiece of the European Union's strategy for aviation safety. Our mission is to promote and achieve the highest common standards of safety and environmental protection in civil aviation. Based in Cologne, the Agency employs experts and administrators from all over Europe. https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2024-releases/2024-01-26-01/ Aeromexico Passenger Arrested After Opening Aircraft Door And Walking On Wing In Mexico City • The incident occurred on a flight bound for Guatemala. SUMMARY • Passengers protested the arrest of a man who opened an emergency exit and walked onto the wing due to a lengthy delay. • The man was seen as acting to protect everyone, according to passengers who signed a statement demanding his release. • Airport authorities claim the man turned himself in, complying with international regulations. On Thursday, a man at Mexico City International Airport (MEX) was arrested after he opened an emergency exit and walked onto the wing of an aircraft while waiting at a gate. While this may initially seem like a typical case of illegal passenger behavior, passengers onboard the aircraft beg to differ and actually defend the man's action. Dozens of passengers signed a written statement protesting the airport's decision to turn the man over to the authorities, with online images of the statement indicating that the airline had kept the aircraft parked at the gate for hours while providing no ventilation or water to those onboard. Airport communications have begged to differ, indicating that the man turned himself over to police in line with international regulations. This incident occurred onboard Aeromexico flight 672, a regularly scheduled service from Mexico City to La Aurora International Airport (GUA) in Guatemala City. The flight, a 737 service that typically departs at 08:50 and is scheduled to arrive at 10:46, did not depart Mexico City until 14:19 after a lengthy delay, according to Flight Aware. A two-sided debate The passengers onboard were extremely displeased with their treatment during what amounted to nearly a five-and-a-half-hour delay. Furthermore, they were quick to defend the arrested individual's actions. The Washington Times reported that at least 77 passengers onboard the aircraft signed a handwritten statement demanding the passenger's immediate release, photos of which have already circulated throughout social media. According to reports, their statements repeatedly included the following jarring words to describe the individual's actions: "[He acted] to protect everyone, with the support of everyone." Naturally, such outcry calls for a response from both the airport authorities and AeroMexico, and many have begun to question how such a desperate situation could have arisen, such as to drive a man to open an emergency exit and walk on the wing, according to ABC News. The airport had the following words to share regarding the situation: "Yesterday a passenger on a flight to Guatemala opened an emergency door on a plane while it was stationary at a remote position, stood on a wing and then re-entered the cabin, without affecting the aircraft or anyone else." While the aircraft was eventually swapped and the flight did takeoff, passengers undeniably were forced to encounter an extremely uncomfortable situation. Aeromexico has yet to respond to Simple Flying's inquiry for a comment regarding the incident. Regulatory oversight Tarmac delays, or situations in which an aircraft is unable to taxi and take off, but passengers have already boarded, are extremely common at airports across the globe. However, they can be some of the most frustrating for passengers as they are often trapped in their seats for hours at a time with no end in sight. As a result, aircraft regulators set strict restrictions on how long airlines are allowed to be delayed on the apron before offering passengers an opportunity to deplane. According to the US Department of Transportation, airlines are required to provide passengers with a safe way to exit the aircraft once a delay has exceeded three hours for domestic flights and four hours for international flights. https://simpleflying.com/aeromexico-passenger-arrested-mexico-city/ United Airlines flight headed to Dulles diverted to Denver due to cracked windshield STERLING, Va. (7News) — A United Airlines flight headed to Dulles International Airport (IAD) from Las Vegas was diverted to Denver due to a cracked windshield, the Federal Aviation Administration reported Sunday. According to United, flight 1627 was diverted due to a maintenance issue. The plane landed around 1:10 local time, the FAA reported. "After safely landing, customers deplaned normally and a plane change occurred," United told 7News. The Boeing 737 aircraft has 166 passengers and seven crew members aboard. This plane was not a Boeing 737 Max which recently received national attention for its issue with door plugs. https://wjla.com/news/local/united-airlines-flight-1627-from-las-vegas-to-dulles-diverted-denver-maintenance-issue-boeing-plane-737-cracked-winshield-faa-travel-safety-passengers-crew US airlines expect April solar eclipse to be the biggest travel event in history US-based airlines are busy preparing for what is expected to be the busiest ever period for air travel in the country in its history. Areas of North America are due to be treated to spectacular views of a total solar eclipse occurring in April 2024. A total solar eclipse occurs when the Moon passes directly between the Sun and the Earth. The result is that certain areas of the Earth are directly in line with the eclipse and are cast in an eerie shadow as those who can stand in the Moon’s shadow get to witness the once-in-a-lifetime visual spectacle of observing the Sun’s corona creating a dazzling silver edge around the Moon’s circumference. The “Great Total Solar Eclipse of 2024” (as it is being termed) is due to sweep across North America in a southwest to northeast direction from Mazatlán in Mexico to Newfoundland in Canada on April 8, 2024. According to the eclipse-following website GreatAmericaEclipse.com, April 8, 2024, is anticipated to be one of the most viewed astronomical events in recent memory and maybe “the single-biggest mass travel event in the USA”. NASA Several US cities lie on the direct line of where the Moon’s shadow will be cast. As a result, US (as well as Mexican and Canadian) carriers are already stating that bookings to these cities both before and after the date of the eclipse are soaring as the public’s imagination is being captured by the chance to view the astronomical spectacle. Cities inside the path of the eclipse that are seeing the most bookings include Mazatlán, Torreon, San Antonio, Austin, Dallas/Fort Worth, Indianapolis, Cleveland, Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, and Montreal. Other major cities that come close to the path of the eclipse include St Louis, Cincinnati, Detroit, and Toronto. In addition, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington, D.C., are all within 200 miles of the path of totality and are expected to enjoy excellent views of the event. VIDEO The last total solar eclipse across the US took place in 2017. However, the 2024 eclipse is being touted as offering the longest totality seen in the country since 1806. The duration of totality for the April eclipse is expected to reach four minutes 27 seconds, with some parts of Texas achieving a totality of four minutes 23 seconds. By comparison, the 2017 eclipse achieved a maximum totality over land of just two minutes and 41 seconds. According to the American Astronomical Society, “totality” is “the maximum phase of a total solar eclipse, during which the Moon’s disk completely covers the Sun’s bright face”. How to view To celebrate the celestial-obscuring event, Southwest Airlines has earmarked several scheduled flights that will offer passengers the best view of the event. Three Southwest flights that “may give passengers the greatest likelihood” of the best view are WN1252 from Dallas-Love Field (DAL) to Pittsburgh (PIT) at 12:45, WN1721 which departs Austin (AUS) at 12:50 heading to Indianapolis St. Paul (IND), and WN1910 departing St. Louis (STL) at 13:20 heading to Houston-Hobby Airport (HOU). The same carrier has also identified a few flights that may cross the path of totality departing from airports such as Houston (Hobby), Milwaukee (MKE), Chicago (ORD), and Nashville (BNA). Meanwhile, Burlington’s Patrick Leahy International Airport (BTV) in Vermont is making its airfield available for public eclipse viewing. The airport will offer the opportunity to mark the occasion with unrivaled views of the event. The partial eclipse is expected to begin at 14:14 with three minutes and 14 seconds of totality commencing at 15:26. The partial eclipse will end at 16:37. How not to view Any AeroTime readers tempted to view the upcoming eclipse on April 8.2024 are reminded that viewing an eclipse without taking the necessary precautions can be extremely detrimental to one’s eyesight. AeroTime recommends that those planning to watch this (or indeed, any) solar eclipse should follow the Royal Astronomical Society safety guidelines which can be viewed in full via this link. Until next time… For those who are unable to get to the US in April 2024, there is a bit of a wait before your next chance. The next total solar eclipse across the contiguous US is due to occur on August 12, 2045. However, elsewhere in the world, other locations will get to experience total solar eclipses in the coming years. These include parts of Europe in 2026 and 2027, Africa/Middle East also in 2027, and Australia/New Zealand in 2028. https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/us-airlines-solar-eclipse-april-2024 Aircraft supply shortage set to continue in 2024 According to a recent paper released by Avolon, a leading global aviation finance company, the value of new aircraft deliveries is expected to surge by more than 15% this year, reaching approximately US$100 billion. This substantial increase is anticipated to be fueled by the delivery of over 1,450 new large commercial aircraft, which in turn will drive airlines’ passenger revenues up by 12% to a staggering US$717 billion. Moreover, airlines’ net profits are projected to experience a notable uptick of 10%, reaching US$26 billion. The general outlook for 2024 sees the continuation of an aircraft supply shortage, set amid aggressive record demand for air travel. 2024: Record-Breaking Passenger Numbers One of the most notable predictions for 2024 is the unprecedented number of passengers expected to take to the skies. With an estimated 4.7 billion people set to fly, surpassing any previous year in history, the aviation industry is gearing up for unprecedented demand. This surge in passenger volume underscores the critical need for airlines to expand their fleets and enhance their operational capacities. Emerging Markets and Growth Drivers India, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE are emerging as pivotal players in driving aviation growth. These regions are witnessing a surge in demand for air travel, which is expected to further bolster the aviation industry’s expansion. However, the challenge lies in addressing the structural undersupply of both narrowbodies and widebodies, which could potentially lead to significant delays for airlines and lessors awaiting new aircraft deliveries. Global Capacity Recovery Despite the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, domestic airline capacity has rebounded remarkably, reaching 106% of 2019 levels globally. While the international sector lags slightly behind, with a recovery rate of around 95%, efforts are underway to revitalize this segment. The slower-than-anticipated rebound in the Chinese market has contributed to this lag, impacting previously busy routes in Southeast Asia. Key Insights from Avolon’s 2024 Outlook The Avolon outlook for 2024 notes the existence of several key trends shaping the aviation landscape. Airlines In 2023, airline revenues surged by 22%, outpacing the global GDP growth rate by a significant margin. Positive cash flows have enabled airlines to repay a substantial portion of the government debt incurred during the pandemic. The gradual reopening of international travel in China is expected to provide a further boost to airline revenues. Manufacturers The persistent undersupply of aircraft is expected to persist for years, driving up the value of delivered aircraft and extending their economic lifespans. However, the recovery in widebody production lags behind narrowbodies, resulting in a tighter market and longer wait times for twin-aisle aircraft. Lessors With both an aircraft supply shortage and capital in short supply, the role of lessors is becoming increasingly crucial. Lessors with strong order books and access to attractive new aircraft are well-positioned to capitalize on future opportunities. Market lease rates have witnessed a significant uptick, with further growth anticipated in the coming years. Innovation & Sustainability The aviation industry is witnessing a growing momentum behind sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), with substantial investments required to scale up production to meet net-zero goals. However, the transition to sustainable aviation practices is expected to contribute to rising operational costs for airlines in the coming decade. Risks While the macroeconomic outlook appears to be stabilizing, softer demand in the US and Europe poses potential challenges. Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as ongoing disputes between China and the West, could further disrupt the aviation landscape. Additionally, supply chain pressures and regulatory oversight pose significant risks to the production ramp-up by OEMs. Conclusion Andy Cronin, CEO of Avolon, emphasizes the enduring economic and social benefits of air travel, highlighting the pivotal role of new aircraft deliveries in driving industry growth. Jim Morrison, Chief Risk Officer of Avolon, underscores the importance of addressing structural undersupply issues while also focusing on scaling up sustainable aviation fuel production to mitigate environmental impact. The aviation industry is poised for significant growth and transformation in 2024, driven by record-breaking passenger numbers, emerging markets, and technological advancements. However, addressing the major challenges of aircraft supply shortage, supply chain disruptions and sustainability concerns will be crucial for ensuring long-term resilience and success in the aviation sector. https://aviationsourcenews.com/analysis/aircraft-supply-shortage-set-to-continue-in-2024/ Airbus Wants To Buy Back Aircraft Slots And Sell Them To United Airlines • United Airlines has serious doubts about the Boeing 737 MAX 10, with the recent 737 MAX 9 groundings as the last straw. SUMMARY • Airbus is looking to buy back delivery slots for its A321neo as it hopes to secure an order from United Airlines. • United Airlines is reconsidering its Boeing 737 MAX 10 orders due to delays in delivery and the aircraft's damaged reputation. • Boeing's delivery delays have pushed United Airlines to explore alternatives, including the A321neo. With a backlog stretching multiple years, Airbus is reportedly looking to take back delivery slots over the coming years for its Airbus A321neo as it looks to capitalize on a potential order from United Airlines amid the carrier hesitation over the Boeing 737 MAX 10. Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, reports that European aircraft manufacturer Airbus has been looking to buy back delivery slots from both airlines and lessors for its popular Airbus A321neo. This coincides with United Airlines' public denouncement of Boeing's 737 MAX 10 aircraft, given its delayed delivery timeline. United Airlines relationship with Boeing 737 MAX 10 United Airlines has been listed as the Boeing 737 MAX 10's launch customer, and has provided a significant push for the type. It ordered 277 aircraft with options for an additional 200. As such, United has an almost unbreakable relationship with the type, given the likelihood of a complex contract limiting the scope of its amendment. In other words, it may not be easy for United Airlines to shift to an Airbus A321neo order. Yet this difficulty has not stopped the airline from publicly voicing its concerns with the type. In a conference call earlier this week, Chief Executive Officer Scott Kirby said that the airline was reviewing its order for the Boeing 737 MAX 10, adding that it had been forced to omit it from its fleet planning as it could not guarantee when it would be delivered. He said: “We’ll be working on what that means exactly with Boeing. But Boeing is not going to be able to meet their contractual deliveries on at least many of those airplanes. And I’ll just leave it at that.” The concerns raised by Kirby come at a time of particular fragility for Boeing. The manufacturer is suffering from the blowback of the recent Alaska Airlines incident in which a Boeing 737 MAX 9's door plug blew open midair, causing an uncontrolled cabin decompression. In an interview with CNBC, Kirby said: “The Max 9 grounding is probably the straw that broke the camel’s back for us.” United is concerned that Boeing is far off schedule in its deliveries. Kirby said that the first deliveries of the Boeing 737 MAX 10 aircraft could start five years later than planned in 2025, with a likelihood of additional delays given the type's pending certification. In November, it was reported that the manufacturer had been cleared to begin test flights in advance of certification. When commenting on the measures that will be taken to mitigate this in terms of fleet plans, Kirby said: "Well, we're early in the planning process so we will see. But it probably means that we change the order books, there's alternative airplanes instead of MAX 10s, at least for the next few years, and this probably means we won't grow as fast as we were hoping." Switching to the A321neo Airbus' discussions with leasing companies and airlines to find slots to potentially offer United Airlines would give the manufacturer a significant boost - not that it necessarily needs one right now. Snagging additional orders from United Airlines, a loyal Boeing customer (despite operating more than 100 Airbus A320 family aircraft), would be a substantial achievement for the company. However, finding delivery slots will be a considerable challenge. The Airbus A321neo program had an overall total of 6171 orders worldwide, of which more than 1200 have been delivered, according to order and delivery data available from Airbus. United Airlines ordered a total of 180 Airbus A321 aircraft, comprising 130 Airbus A321neos and 50 Airbus A321XLRs. It has 4 Airbus A321neos in service at the time of publication. https://simpleflying.com/airbus-buyback-aircraft-sell-united-airlines/ Why Airliners Avoid Storms Despite Being Designed To Withstand Them • Mother nature can create some fierce weather conditions and aircraft must aim to avoid these. SUMMARY • Aircraft are designed to fly through storms, but pilots are trained to avoid them to minimize risk to aircraft and passengers. • Flight routes are planned in advance to avoid problem areas based on predicted weather movements. • Avoiding storms makes the flight smoother for passengers, as strong winds can cause uncomfortable turbulence. Modern aircraft are designed to withstand some of the harshest weather conditions during flights. Wind and thunderstorms, lightning strikes, and turbulent events are common occurrences for airliners. However, pilots are always instructed and trained to avoid storms to minimize the safety risk to the aircraft and its occupants. This article provides several reasons why aircraft must always avoid severe weather patterns during flights and plan their flight path away or around inclement weather. Avoiding the storm Modern aircraft are designed to fly through storms and other adverse weather. Strong winds will not cause aircraft to fall from the sky, and heavy rain is not going to damage the fuselage. Lightning is not a serious problem either. In fact, according to the US National Weather Service, an aircraft in commercial service is hit by a bolt of lightning on average once or twice per year. With a metal aircraft, the fuselage acts as a Faraday cage with the electricity carried through the exterior. With composite aircraft, conducting elements have been added to direct the current. Despite the limited chance of problems, aircraft will route to avoid storms - both mild and severe. It is also worth noting that avoiding it does not present much difficulty unless the storm is particularly large or unexpected. An Aircraft flying in what appears to be bad weather. Photo: Jaromir Chalabala | Shutterstock Flight routes are planned in advance and will account for predicted weather movements. In this way, particular problem areas can be avoided, which will be factored into the route, flight time, and fuel requirements. Onboard aircraft systems will also help pilots avoid poor local weather. Making the flight comfortable for passengers A leading reason for avoiding storms is simply to make the flight smoother. Strong winds can seriously affect aircraft movement. Most of this is due to clear air turbulence caused by variations in wind velocity. This happens as the lift produced by the wings will increase and decrease with changes in wind speed or direction. Safety considerations Safety plays a part too. Firstly, although aircraft are designed to withstand storms, why take the chance? A short diversion or delay is much more sensitive than risking a potentially extreme storm. Some interesting discussion from pilots on Quora highlights this well. They point out that thunderstorms can have updrafts exceeding 6000 feet per minute (compared to a standard climb rate of 2000 to 3000 feet per minute). Combined with potentially multiple lightning strikes, this could put the aircraft near its stress limits. There are also ground safety concerns. Storm effects are more likely at lower altitudes and, of course, can severely affect take-off and landing. This is another reason why advance planning is essential - if storms are likely at the arrival airport, flights may be delayed or certainly planned with an extra likelihood of diversion. https://simpleflying.com/why-airliners-avoid-storms/ CALENDAR OF EVENTS • SINGAPORE AIRSHOW 2024 - February 20 - 25 • HAI Heli-Expo 2024 - February 26 - 29 - Anaheim, CA • 2024 Women in Aviation International Conference - March 21-23 (Orlando) • SMU Air Law Symposium - March 21-22, 2024 ( Dallas, TX) • 2024 ACSF Safety Symposium – Air Charter Safety Foundation - April 1-3, 2024 • Airborne Public Safety Association, Inc. (APSCON 2024) - July 29 - August 3; Houston TX • Asia Pacific Airline Training Symposium - APATS 2024, 0-11 September, 2024, Singapore • • 2024 ISASI - Lisbon, Portugal - September 30 to October 4, 2024 • 2024 NBAA Business Aviation Convention & Exhibition - Oct. 22-24 (Vegas) Curt Lewis