Flight Safety Information - February 15, 2024 No. 034 In This Issue : Incident: JAL B788 at San Diego on Feb 6th 2024, runway incursion : Incident: Aerolineas B738 near Neuquen on Feb 13th 2024, cabin pressure problems : U.S. Marine Corps F-35C Suffers Nose Landing Gear Collapse While Parked : Airbus CEO Expects To Launch ZEROe Aircraft Program By 2028 : Airbus targets 800 aircraft deliveries for 2024 even as supply chain issues linger : Aviation Safety Stand Down March 9 will focus on pilot safety (Idaho) : Warrant Officers Are Coming Back to the Air Force, But They Won't Be Pilots : Even seasoned pilots fall prey to outcome bias, study in Applied Cognitive Psychology reveals : Thai Airways Confirms Order For 45 Boeing Widebody Planes : Airplane bumps into fence in third mishap in 2 weeks at Norway's main airport : Two hospitalized after plane has alleged mechanical failure in Bentonville, officials say : CALENDAR OF EVENTS Incident: JAL B788 at San Diego on Feb 6th 2024, runway incursion A JAL Japan Airlines Boeing 787-8, registration JA836J performing flight JL-65 from San Diego,CA (USA) to Tokyo Narita (Japan), had departed Terminal 2 West and was taxiing for departure from runway 27, was advised to expect backtracking the runway and was cleared to taxi along taxiway B and hold short of the runway at B8 but missed the turn onto taxiway B, continued straight onto B10 and went past the hold short line. A Delta Airlines Bombardier C-Series CS-300, registration N301DU performing flight DL-2287 from Seattle,WA to San Diego,CA (USA), was on final approach to runway 09 and was instructed to go around as result of the runway incursion. The aircraft landed safely about 15 minutes later. The Japanese Crew, told to hold position when the controller noticed the conflict, apologized. The Dreamliner departed about one hour later. Japan's Ministry of Transport reported the JAL aircraft entered a wrong taxiway. The pilot told them that he noticed something was odd, at the same time the controller alerted them, however, the aircraft had already gone past the hold short line. https://avherald.com/h?article=514f3de9&opt=0 Incident: Aerolineas B738 near Neuquen on Feb 13th 2024, cabin pressure problems An Aerolineas Argentina Boeing 737-800, registration LV-FRQ performing flight AR-1639 from Bariloche,RN to Buenos Aires Ezeiza,BA (Argentina), was climbing through about FL230 out of Bariloche when the crew initiated an emergency descent to FL100 and diverted to Neuquen,NE (Argentina) for a safe landing on Neuquen's runway 09 about 25 minutes after stopping the climb. A replacement Boeing 737-8 MAX registration LV-KKE positioned to Neuquen and resumed the flight delivering the passengers to Buenos Aires with a delay of about 7.5 hours. The occurrence aircraft is still on the ground in Neuquen about 20 hours after landing. https://avherald.com/h?article=514f36c8&opt=0 U.S. Marine Corps F-35C Suffers Nose Landing Gear Collapse While Parked The pilot was climbing out of the F-35C when the nose landing gear began retracting. A U.S. Marine Corps F-35C Lightning II, assigned to Marine Fighter Attack Squadron (VMFA) 311 at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar, California, has suffered a nose landing gear collapse while parked shortly after a training mission, photos a reader shared with The Aviationist show. According to the reader, who wishes to remain anonymous, the aircraft was at Naval Air Station Fallon, Nevada, when the incident happened. The mishap F-35C is the airframe CF-89/170109, coded “WL-04”. The aircraft was parked under a sunshade after returning from an uneventful training flight on Jan. 26, 2024. According to the unverified report we were submitted, after shutting down the aircraft without problems, the pilot started climbing down the ladder when the nose landing gear began retracting slowly. Upon reaching the halfway point, the nose landing gear fully collapsed. The photos show the aircraft resting on the Electro-Optical Targeting System’s glass fairing, without apparent damage. As far as we know, this should be the first time an F-35C nose landing gear “collapse” is reported, as similar incidents so far happened only on the A and B variants. We reached out to NAS Fallon PAO for confirmation and further details but, at the time of writing, we haven’t received an answer yet, despite several attempts. https://theaviationist.com/2024/02/13/f-35c-nose-landing-gear-collapse-while-parked/ Airbus CEO Expects To Launch ZEROe Aircraft Program By 2028 • Airbus provided two key updates on the ZEROe program and on the A320neo aircraft family successor, known as the Next Generation Single Aisle (NGSA). SUMMARY • Airbus is exploring two hydrogen technologies, liquid hydrogen and hydrogen fuel cells, for its ZEROe program. • Airbus plans to launch the ZEROe program by the end of the decade, with an entry-into-service target of 2035. • The successor to the A320neo is being developed and is expected to be fully powered by Sustainable Aviation Fuel. Airbus has revealed more details on its ZEROe program, which the manufacturer announced in September 2020. According to its chief executive, the plane maker is currently exploring two hydrogen technologies: directly burning liquid hydrogen or using it in a fuel cell to turn hydrogen into electricity. At the same time, Airbus is already preparing the successor for the A320neo, planning a new aircraft to replace its best-selling product in the next decade. The manufacturer expected that the replacement jet would enter service at the second half of the next decade, meaning mid-to-late 2030s. Definitive timeline for ZEROe Guillaume Faury, the chief executive officer (CEO) of Airbus, made his comments during the manufacturer’s annual press conference, answering a question from Simple Flying’s Tom Boon. According to Faury, Airbus is focusing on two technologies to power the ZEROe platform: liquid hydrogen, which would be similar to the current jet fuel propulsion system, and using hydrogen as a fuel cell, turning hydrogen into electricity onboard the aircraft, resulting in electric propulsion. “We are moving with ZEROe very strongly,” he noted, adding that the manufacturer will continue researching the two different technologies in the coming years. However, Faury reiterated that while everybody is rightly focusing on the product, which the public can see as well, the CEO emphasized that there are many more factors to launch the new-generation program. He explained that there are challenges related to, “The technology, the product itself, the regulatory framework that is less visible but we cannot be launching a product if we do not have certification standards for the production, logistics, distribution of hydrogen on-site, on airports […].” Entry-into-service in 2035 Faury added that there are questions on how to certify hydrogen-powered aircraft as well, and all of these things need to be taken care of. Furthermore, the manufacturer noted that the hydrogen ecosystem around the airport has to be mature enough at the launch date of the ZEROe program so that the airlines that would order a hydrogen aircraft could actually find green hydrogen at their base airports. As such, Airbus’ CEO stated that while the product-related challenges are in its hands, the questions of certification and infrastructure need to be resolved involving other stakeholders within the aviation industry. Still, Airbus should launch the program at the end of this decade, around 2027 or 2028, to be ready for entry-into-service (EIS) in 2035. A320 family successor Faury also confirmed that Airbus is already developing the successor to the A320 aircraft family, known as the Next Generation Single Aisle (NGSA), as first reported by The Air Current. The manufacturer’s chief executive said that Airbus is currently preparing the aircraft's technologies. However, its EIS date was set as the second half of the next decade, meaning it would be replacing the A320neo in the next ten to 15 years. Faury asserted that this would not be a stretch of any variant, and instead, Airbus will be presenting an entirely new platform. https://simpleflying.com/airbus-ceo-expects-launch-zeroe-program-by-2028/ Airbus targets 800 aircraft deliveries for 2024 even as supply chain issues linger • Airbus says it plans to deliver more aircraft to customers in 2024 even as supply chain headaches continue to afflict the European airplane maker PARIS -- Airbus plans to deliver more aircraft to customers in 2024 even as supply chain headaches continue to afflict the European airplane maker. The company reported healthy results for its commercial aircraft business Thursday in its latest annual earnings report, and signaled that there was more to come this year by setting a target of 800 commercial aircraft deliveries, 65 more than in 2023. "We progressed on our production ramp-up against a backdrop of an operating environment that remains complex and affected by supply chain challenges and geopolitical conflicts so at the end that's quite an achievement in my view," CEO Guillaume Faury said. Airbus's fortunes contrast with struggles at U.S. rival Boeing, which is battling manufacturing quality control concerns after an emergency door panel blew off a 737 Max 9 jetliner last month. Faury indicated that Airbus wouldn't see any short-term bump from airlines that want to switch suppliers as it already has a hefty order backlog for its A320 narrow-body jets that compete directly with Boeing's 737 family. “What’s happening in the broader industry - you refer to the situation of the competitor - has obviously an impact on all of this,” Faury told reporters at its headquarters in Toulouse, France. But he said the company is focused on its order backlog with existing customers “that’s independent from what could happen outside." Openings for new airplane orders won't be available until the next decade, “so that would more impact the long term competitive positioning of the two companies rather than the short term,” Faury said. Airbus reported that adjusted earnings before interest and tax rose 4% to 5.8 billion euros ($6.2 billion) as revenue climbed 11%. It also announced plans to pay shareholders a special dividend on top of the regular dividend, reflecting growth prospects and a strong balance sheet including a cash pile that rose 14% to 10.7 billion euros. https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/airbus-targets-800-aircraft-deliveries-2024-supply-chain-107256132 Aviation Safety Stand Down March 9 will focus on pilot safety (Idaho) The 2024 Aviation Safety Stand Down for the thousands of pilots and aviation enthusiasts, is just around the corner. This FREE event is slated for Saturday, March 9 at the Nampa Civic Center, from 8 a.m. – 4:30 p.m. This year, The Idaho Division of Aeronautics (Aero) will focus on backcountry safety, including backcountry medical care. Since most accidents occur in the flight pattern, we have sessions on ways to reduce loss-of-control accidents. This will include a stall/spin refresher and a discussion of float-plane operations. See the schedule for more details. This event is sponsored by Aero, which exists to “encourage, foster, and assist in the development of aeronautics in the state.” This includes managing 32 state-owned airports, helping Idaho airports with state and federal grants for maintenance and construction, assisting communities with zoning decisions near airports, promoting aviation safety, inspiring kids to enter careers in aviation, and coordinating aviation search and rescue. If you are involved in aviation safety and wish to have tablespace at the event, please contact Aero, or simply want more info regarding the event, please email idaho.aeronautics@itd.idaho.gov or call 208-334-8775 for additional information. Register with your FAA WINGS email address for WINGS Credit. https://itd.idaho.gov/news/aviation-safety-stand-down-march-9-will-focus-on-pilot-safety/ Warrant Officers Are Coming Back to the Air Force, But They Won't Be Pilots AURORA, Colorado -- The Air Force announced this week that it is bringing back warrant officer ranks, but officials clarified Tuesday it is not looking at developing aviators through that training -- despite an ongoing pilot shortage and other service branches using warrant officers for those types of missions. The service will instead focus on information technology and cyber operations for those ranks, and not pursue pilot tracks, Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin told Military.com during a media roundtable at the Air and Space Forces Association's Warfare Symposium conference. "We believe that there's something specific about this very precise career field, this technologically oriented career field where the perishability of it and the requirement of it to maintain at the cutting edge is more along the lines of what we'd expect in a warrant officer track," Allvin said. On average, the Air Force has brought in around 1,300 new pilots each year for nearly a decade, short of its goal of around 1,500 annually. Recent shortages have been attributed to a range of issues, such as delays in getting new engines into T-38 Talon training jets, a lack of instructors, and holdups in getting new airmen into the training pipeline. A document detailing the change to bring back warrant officers, a plan first reported by Military.com last week, sets out steps "to develop a concept of operations (CONOP) to establish a training pipeline to reintroduce a USAF non-aviation warrant officer (WO) program as a technical corps NLT October 2024." The Air Force has previously shot down the idea of using warrant officers as a way to fill the ongoing pilot shortage with aviators. In 2018, Air Force officials said at a conference that the Rand Corp. think tank was tasked with looking at the idea but its study did not recommend it, Military.com reported at the time. Warrant officers are used by the other service branches as highly technical subject matter experts and single-track leaders. They typically come from the enlisted ranks. One of the main issues with the warrant officer track for pilots is that those airmen would command a lower salary than their officer pilot peers, and would be more likely to be lured out of service by higher-paying private-sector jobs. "A [warrant officer] component would incur lower personnel costs than the [commissioned officer] workforce it displaced, but the lower compensation levels responsible for the lower personnel costs would also produce lower retention rates. With lower retention, training costs would go up," Rand reported in its study. Warrant officers can currently fly in the Army, and the Navy had a flying chief warrant officer program from 2006 to 2014. Allvin said the Air Force is looking at innovative ways to overcome shortfalls in other career fields, such as pilots, but said the warrant officer program made the most sense for the IT and cyber career fields. Chief of Space Operations Gen. Chance Saltzman also told Military.com during a roundtable that the Space Force is not looking at starting its own service-specific warrant officer program for similar career fields. https://www.military.com/daily-news/2024/02/14/warrant-officers-are-coming-back-air-force-they-wont-be-pilots.html Even seasoned pilots fall prey to outcome bias, study in Applied Cognitive Psychology reveals In a fascinating exploration into the minds of pilots, a recent study has unearthed that the outcomes of past decisions, whether good or bad, significantly sway how pilots evaluate the quality of those decisions. This phenomenon, known as outcome bias, was observed across various simulated flight scenarios, revealing that even experienced pilots are more likely to judge a decision negatively if it leads to a poor result, regardless of the decision-making process itself. The findings, published in Applied Cognitive Psychology, underscore the complex nature of human judgment and highlight the need for aviation training programs to address cognitive biases more thoroughly. Why embark on this study? The motivation is rooted in the critical nature of aviation decisions. While pilots often rely on standardized procedures, checklists, and operating manuals for decision-making, they also face scenarios that demand rapid judgment calls in the absence of complete information and under the pressure of several competing alternatives. This type of decision-making is inherently more complex and fraught with the potential for error. Previous research has highlighted that a significant portion of aviation accidents are due to human error, with a considerable number of these errors tied to decision-making under pressure. Given these stakes, the researchers aimed to delve deeper into the cognitive processes underpinning pilot decision-making, particularly the role of outcome bias — a psychological phenomenon where the results of a decision influence how we view the quality of that decision in hindsight. The researchers recruited 60 pilots who were qualified to fly under instrument flight rules (IFR), dividing them into two categories based on their experience. Expertise was determined by the number of hours each pilot had logged as pilot-in-command (PIC), with those accumulating more than 2,000 hours classified as experts, and those with fewer as novices. Participants were presented with four carefully crafted scenarios through an online survey. These scenarios simulated real-world decisions pilots might face while flying under IFR. The scenarios were developed with input from seasoned pilots to ensure realism and relevance. Each scenario concluded with either a positive or negative outcome, designed to test the impact of outcome knowledge on the pilots’ evaluations. The scenarios were as follows: • A flight with minimum fuel expecting clear weather, which either lands safely or requires a go-around due to unanticipated bad weather. • A decision to fly above clouds to save fuel, leading either to an uneventful flight or ice crystal icing causing technical issues. • Continuing an approach despite a red cell (heavy rain) on the weather radar, which ends either with a safe landing or a downdraft necessitating a windshear escape maneuver. • Landing in freezing rain with no reported braking action value, resulting in either a safe stop or an overshoot of the runway. • Participants rated each scenario on three aspects: the decision’s quality, the perceived risk, and their likelihood of making the same decision. The study’s findings revealed a significant presence of outcome bias across all measures. Decisions that led to positive outcomes were rated more favorably in terms of decision quality, perceived risk, and the likelihood of making the same choice, compared to those with negative outcomes. This trend persisted regardless of the pilots’ experience, indicating that both novices and experts were equally influenced by the outcomes when evaluating past decisions. These findings underscore the significant role of outcome bias in the decision-making processes of pilots, challenging the assumption that experience alone can mitigate the influence of cognitive biases. The study’s insights into how pilots evaluate past decisions based on outcomes rather than the information available at the time have important implications for aviation safety and training. By recognizing the impact of outcome bias, training programs can be better designed to address these cognitive biases, potentially leading to improved decision-making processes and enhancing overall flight safety. The findings open up several avenues for future research. There’s a need to explore other cognitive heuristics that pilots may rely on during decision-making and to investigate whether these biases affect judgment in real-life flight situations as strongly as they do in simulated scenarios. Moreover, comparing the decision-making processes in aviation with those in other high-stakes fields, like medicine, could offer deeper insights into how professionals manage risk and uncertainty. The study, “All’s well that ends well? Outcome bias in pilots during instrument flight rules“, was authored by Ana P. G. Martins, Moritz V. Köbrich, Nils Carstengerdes, and Marcus Biella. https://www.psypost.org/2024/02/even-seasoned-pilots-fall-prey-to-outcome-bias-study-in-applied-cognitive-psychology-reveals-221510 Thai Airways Confirms Order For 45 Boeing Widebody Planes • Thai Airways announced it ordered 45 widebody aircraft with options for additional planes as part of its fleet restoration plans. SUMMARY • Thai Airways plans to acquire at least 45 widebody jets to replace aging aircraft and enhance its fleet as part of its expansion and modernization efforts. • The new aircraft, expected to be Boeing 787-9 Dreamliners, will help the airline increase revenue and exit its restructuring phase, supporting the company's goal of earning at least 180 billion baht ($4.98 billion) in annual revenue from 2025 onwards. • Thai Airways aims to rebuild its market share and meet increasing demand by acquiring additional aircraft through operating leases in the meantime. • The flag carrier of Thailand has announced it will acquire at least 45 widebody jets as it continues to expand and modernize its fleet. The new aircraft will bolster the Thai Airways fleet as the airline looks to increase revenue and exit restructuring. Deliveries are expected to begin in 2027, with further details about the deal to be revealed in the coming weeks. Regrowing the fleet Simple Flying previously reported that Thai Airways was moving ahead with a significant aircraft deal as part of its fleet enhancement program. A firm order has now been announced for 45 widebody jets and options for additional aircraft, which the airline has declared "crucial" for replacing gradually expiring leased and aging aircraft. The order is widely believed to be for Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner aircraft. A spokesperson for Boeing deferred questions to the airline when pressed on the subject, but the manufacturer reported an order of 45 787-9s in December 2023 to an "unidentified customer." Thai Airways is looking to rebuild its fleet after decommissioning planes and discontinued the leases of aging and less fuel-efficient aircraft to decrease maintenance and operating costs during the pandemic. The carrier went from a fleet of 100 planes (including Airbus A380s) in 2013 to 64 aircraft at the end of 2022. Restructuring the company The rapid recovery of tourism and travel demand since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic has allowed Thai Airways to bolster its fleet by securing additional aircraft through operating leases. A statement seen by the Bangkok Post indicates that Thailand is looking to acquire an additional nine planes this year, up from 70 at the end of 2023, with 90 aircraft projected by 2025. The new aircraft will continue to replace leased and less-efficient aircraft as they are delivered. Speaking to Reuters, Thai Airways CEO Chai Eamsiri indicated new jets would enable the airline to carry enough passengers to earn at least 180 billion baht ($4.98 billion) in annual revenue from 2025 onwards once secured: "Without aircraft, how can you reach that level? It's simple. We need capacity, we need aircraft." The new planes are a crucial part of the airline's restructuring program and will be vital for rebuilding market share as it seeks to meet demand across the region. Keeping up capacity The airline aims to exit its rehabilitation plan this year after reporting a fourth straight quarterly profit in November and notes that its current financial health and projected liquidity are "adequate" to support the fleet upgrades over the next several years. The new planes will not all be purchased outright, with the airline considering various funding models, including operating and financial leases that will strike a balance that optimizes financial flexibility and operational efficiency. According to the airline, the acquisition will not affect the airline's ability to make debt payments. Rather, it is a crucial part of staying on track with its obligations: “Considering the number of aircraft scheduled for decommissioning and lease expiry, the aircraft order backlog, aircraft production capability and the significantly increasing demand for aircraft in the aviation industry, THAI’s fleet, without this long-term acquisition, would decrease to only 51 aircraft in 2033, a 49% decrease from 2013. “This would not generate the revenue needed to repay debts to creditors. However, with the acquisition of 45 aircraft, THAI’s fleet would reach 96 aircraft, which is still less than in 2013.” Further details of the airline's fleet renewal plan are expected to be announced at the Singapore Airshow, which runs from February 20th to 25th this year. Based on the most recent announcement, which mentions a contract with GE Aerospace, it would appear Thai Airways is shifting away from the Rolls-Royce engines used on its existing fleet, potentially due to a disagreement over pricing late last year. https://simpleflying.com/boeing-first-order-2024-thai-airways-boeing-787/ Airplane bumps into fence in third mishap in 2 weeks at Norway's main airport • Scandinavian Airlines says one of its planes has struck a fence at the Oslo airport, causing minor damage to the aircraft and no injuries COPENHAGEN, Denmark -- A Scandinavian Airlines plane struck a fence at the Oslo airport on Wednesday, causing minor damage to the aircraft and no injuries, the airline said. It was the third mishap in two weeks reported at Norway's main airport. The plane bound for Stockholm was leaving the gate at the airport in Gardermoen when its left wing tip crashed into a railing, Scandinavian Airlines told The Associated Press. It was not immediately known how many people were on board. Two of the three recent incidents at the airport "have occurred as a result of pushback from the same gate,” Oslo airport spokeswoman Monica Iren Fasting told the AP. “All incidents will be reviewed.” As a result of Wednesday’s incident, the gate was closed, Fasting said. A spokesperson for the carrier, Tonje Sund, told Norwegian newspaper VG that the plane received damage that grounded it. The exact damage was not known. On Feb. 2, a Norwegian airline plane bound for Stockholm collided with a fence at the same gate. No one was injured. On Tuesday, another Norwegian plane headed for Kristiansand hit another airplane, clipping its wing. Charlotte Holmbergh, head of communications with the airline, said one plane was taxiing out when another Norwegian plane “came too close and hit the flight next to it at low speed" and their wings touched. No one was injured, Holmbergh said in an email to the AP. https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/airplane-bumps-fence-mishap-2-weeks-norways-main-107224967 Two hospitalized after plane has alleged mechanical failure in Bentonville, officials say • Debbie Griffin said seven people were on board the Beechjet 400A plane when it detoured. BENTONVILLE, Ark. — The City of Bentonville's airport manager Debbie Griffin confirmed that a plane went off the runway when attempting to take off from Thaden Field on Wednesday, Feb. 14, around 3:30 p.m. Griffin said seven people were on board the Beechjet 400A plane when it detoured. Two people were taken to the hospital, but their conditions are unknown. Griffin believes the incident occurred due to reported mechanical failure, but the exact cause is still under investigation. Bentonville Fire and hazmat teams prepped the scene for a few hours after the crash for the FAA to come in and investigate. "Anytime you have a crash or any kind of incident at an airport, there's a series of things that has to happen," Griffin said. "Because it was taking off, we also have fuel on the plane. The fire department obviously is here. Hazmat team is here to make sure that that stays contained until we get clearance from the FAA to remove the plane." https://www.5newsonline.com/article/news/local/plane-goes-off-runway-bentonville-municipal-airport/527-4177d853-aa5d-4998-9922-c01ff383ce78 CALENDAR OF EVENTS • SINGAPORE AIRSHOW 2024 - February 20 - 25 • HAI Heli-Expo 2024 - February 26 - 29 - Anaheim, CA • 2024 Women in Aviation International Conference - March 21-23 (Orlando) • SMU Air Law Symposium - March 21-22, 2024 ( Dallas, TX) • 2024 ACSF Safety Symposium – Air Charter Safety Foundation - April 1-3, 2024 • Blazetech - Aircraft Fire Hazards, Protection, and Investigation Course June 4 - 7, 2024 • Airborne Public Safety Association, Inc. (APSCON 2024) - July 29 - August 3; Houston TX • Asia Pacific Airline Training Symposium - APATS 2024, 0-11 September, 2024, Singapore • • 2024 ISASI - Lisbon, Portugal - September 30 to October 4, 2024 • 2024 NBAA Business Aviation Convention & Exhibition - Oct. 22-24 (Vegas) Curt Lewis